Archive›Nottingham · 9 May 2026

Nottingham

9 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:38 — Family Funday 31st May Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:08 — Best Odds Guaranteed At Betano Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

1m½f · Good · NOV · 6 runners

Qarreeb to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Romanticizing led; the map had Qarreeb in front.

Lighting Thunder won at 1.25 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Qarreeb

Prominent · 2

Lighting ThunderMidsummer Storm

Midfield · 2

Forever EndlessFlag Of Eva

Hold Up · 1

Romanticizing

Qarreeb will take them along from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field, creating a sustainable gallop that won't be pressured early. Lighting Thunder and Midsummer Storm will sit prominent behind the leader, while Romanticizing is the only confirmed hold-up horse who will need to be delivered late. With just one leader and a patient tempo likely, this race shape strongly favours the front-running Qarreeb and prominent racers who can track and strike, rather than horses needing a strong pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Qarreeb gets an uncontested lead and maintains his gallop

The pace will be too slow for closers and Qarreeb can dictate terms throughout, with his recent course form giving him a crucial edge. The prominent runners will struggle to reel him in from the steady tempo.

QarreebLighting ThunderMidsummer StormRomanticizing

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Lighting Thunder or Midsummer Storm can time their challenge perfectly

The class edge of Lighting Thunder or tactical speed of Midsummer Storm allows them to close down Qarreeb in the final furlong. The moderate early pace suits their prominent style perfectly.

Lighting ThunderMidsummer StormQarreebForever Endless

Newcomer Surprise

15% probability

If Flag Of Eva or Forever Endless show significant improvement from their debuts

The patient pace allows a well-bred newcomer to show their true ability and overcome their inexperience. The small field and steady gallop provides the perfect learning experience.

Flag Of EvaForever EndlessLighting ThunderQarreeb

Hold-Up Success

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

Romanticizing gets the perfect setup from the back with a strong finishing kick that the others cannot match. The slow tempo transforms into exactly what the hold-up horse needs.

RomanticizingFlag Of EvaLighting ThunderMidsummer Storm

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Qarreeb could steal this from the front if he gets an uncontested lead in this small field

WATCH

The two debutants Flag Of Eva and Forever Endless are complete unknowns and could outrun their odds

NOTE

Lighting Thunder has the class edge but needs to time his challenge perfectly from his prominent position

WATCH

The pace could collapse with only one front-runner, potentially setting up a sprint finish

NOTE

Romanticizing may struggle if the pace is too slow as he needs something to aim at from the back

2:50 — Bet 10 Get 30 At Betano Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Inferno to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lillie Margot led; the map had Inferno in front.

Valkyrie Storm won at 1.83 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Inferno

Prominent · 2

Valkyrie StormGwen's Girl

Midfield · 3

Lillie MargotSailor BattQuick Turn

Hold Up · 3

Glasgow KissEmpiricalBosom Pals

Inferno looks the only confirmed front-runner in this field and should be allowed to bowl along at a sustainable tempo without serious pressure from the prominent brigade of Valkyrie Storm and Gwen's Girl. The majority of this field prefers to be held up including Sailor Batt, Bosom Pals, Empirical, Quick Turn and Glasgow Kiss, which means the early pace will be modest rather than testing. With such a large hold-up contingent and minimal pace pressure, this race shape strongly favours the early speed - either the leader Inferno if he can sustain his effort, or the prominent runners who can track the steady gallop and have first run on the struggling hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Inferno gets an uncontested lead and the pace stays steady throughout

The Edward Bethell runner can dictate terms without pressure and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still struggling to get into the race. His recent third over course and distance suggests he has the stamina to see out this trip when allowed to control the tempo.

InfernoValkyrie StormGwen's GirlSailor Batt

Prominent Tracker Strikes

35% probability

If Valkyrie Storm or Gwen's Girl can sit close to Inferno and pounce late

The winner from this scenario can travel easily behind the steady pace before quickening in the final two furlongs when the hold-up horses are still finding their legs. Valkyrie Storm's recent course and distance success gives her a clear edge in this tactical battle.

Valkyrie StormGwen's GirlInfernoSailor Batt

Hold Up Success

15% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong or Inferno folds quickly

Quick Turn or Sailor Batt could benefit from a truly-run race where their finishing kicks can be effective. However, this requires the pace to be much stronger than anticipated given the lack of early speed in this field.

Quick TurnSailor BattValkyrie StormBosom Pals

Pace Collapse Scramble

5% probability

If Inferno stops quickly and the prominent runners also fail to capitalize

The race becomes a messy affair where any horse with a turn of foot can win from any position. This scenario requires multiple pace failures and creates the most open finish possible.

EmpiricalGlasgow KissQuick TurnBosom Pals

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Inferno breaking slowly would create chaos as there's no other natural leader in this field

WATCH

Valkyrie Storm getting too keen early could compromise her chance to capitalize on the tactical advantage

NOTE

Quick Turn's ability to transfer AW form to turf will determine if the hold-up brigade has any realistic chance

WATCH

Bosom Pals showing signs of a long break after 254 days off, fitness will be crucial if she's to feature

NOTE

The pace in the opening two furlongs - if genuinely strong it transforms the race for the hold-up horses

3:25 — Boosted Odds Every Race At Betano Handicap

1m½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Lead contested: Degale v Port ErinHISTORIC

How it ran

Degale led, as the map showed.

Principality won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

8 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

DegalePort Erin

Prominent · 3

AspullOrangesandlemonsBarry's Boy

Midfield · 4

YouarenotforgivenAsteverdiTigerLeadenhall

Hold Up · 4

PrincipalityHelm RockWinston's WarriorIntrusively

Degale and Port Erin will contest the early lead, with Degale likely to take them along at a steady gallop given his proven front-running style. The pace should be honest rather than frenetic, as both leaders have shown they can settle into rhythm when unopposed early. Prominent runners like Aspull, Orangesandlemons and Barry's Boy will track the leaders closely, while the large contingent of hold-up horses including Principality, Helm Rock, Intrusively and Leadenhall will be looking for a strong finish. This race shape clearly favours the hold-up horses who can capitalize on the steady early tempo and unleash their finishing kick in the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace is steady and the field stays together into the straight

The large group of closers get their ideal setup with plenty to aim at turning for home. Horses like Principality, Helm Rock and Leadenhall can produce their trademark late runs to sweep past the early leaders.

PrincipalityHelm RockLeadenhallIntrusively

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If Degale or Port Erin can steal an uncontested lead and kick clear

The winner gets first run and holds off the late challengers by finding extra when pressured. The honest gallop plays into the hands of a horse that can quicken from the front.

DegalePort ErinAspullBarry's Boy

Prominent Tracker Wins

15% probability

If the pace collapses in the final furlong and positions matter most

Horses positioned just behind the leaders get the perfect trip and can pounce when the pace falters. They avoid the traffic issues that catch the hold-up horses and the stamina test that stops the leaders.

AspullOrangesandlemonsBarry's BoyWinston's Warrior

Closers Caught Wide

5% probability

If the pace is very slow and the field compacts turning for home

The hold-up horses get caught in traffic or forced to go wide for their runs. The race becomes a tactical affair where position trumps finishing kick.

Winston's WarriorAsteverdiPort ErinOrangesandlemons

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Degale could set fractions too slow if allowed uncontested early lead, potentially setting up sprint finish that negates stamina advantages

WATCH

Winston's Warrior stepping up significantly from recent AW success to competitive turf handicap, may find this too sharp a rise

NOTE

Aspull making first appearance for 246 days despite solid work reports, market support will indicate stable confidence in readiness

WATCH

Port Erin returning from six-month break following heavy defeats, early position crucial given front-running style

NOTE

Principality's claimer takes valuable weight allowance but horse needs to recapture form shown 12 months ago

4:00 — Spin The Betano Lucky Dip Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Westgate Warrior to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Westgate Warrior and Marajito led, as the map showed.

Herakles won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Westgate Warrior

Prominent · 4

DonaldMarajitoHeraklesPapa Don't Preach

Midfield · 1

Mrs Trump

Hold Up · 3

KomorkisDc CogentAlbegone

Westgate Warrior holds a clear lead monopoly and should dictate terms unopposed early. Papa Don't Preach, Donald, Herakles and Marajito will scrap for prominent positions behind, creating traffic and interference 2-3 furlongs out as they fan wide. The hold-up quartet (Albegone, Komorkis, Dc Cogent, Mrs Trump) face a wall of horses to navigate in the final furlong. This pace setup strongly favours prominent runners who can secure clean racing room and kick clear before the hold-up brigade gets organised.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Westgate Warrior gets an easy lead without pressure from the prominent pack

He controls fractions and has enough left to resist late challenges, while the scrimmaging behind disrupts pursuers' momentum. The lone leader benefits from clear sailing while others compromise each other.

Westgate WarriorPapa Don't PreachDonaldHerakles

Prominent Battle Royale

35% probability

If the four prominent runners engage early and create a fast pace behind Westgate Warrior

The sustained speed sets up perfectly for hold-up runners to sweep past a weakened field in the final furlong. Fresh legs from the back prove decisive as pace horses tie up.

AlbegoneKomorkisDc CogentMrs Trump

Traffic Chaos Finish

12% probability

If the prominent runners create a wall across the track turning for home

Hold-up horses get severely hampered and can't find racing room, while one prominent runner finds daylight to capitalise. Clean passage becomes more valuable than raw ability in a messy finish.

DonaldHeraklesPapa Don't PreachMarajito

Collapse and Swoop

8% probability

If Westgate Warrior goes too fast early trying to shake off persistent prominent pressure

The entire pace collapses and allows the most effective hold-up horse to power through from last to first. Mrs Trump's proven sprint speed from deep becomes the winning weapon.

Mrs TrumpDc CogentKomorkisAlbegone

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Westgate Warrior breaking smartly to establish lead as any delay allows prominent runners to pressure him immediately

WATCH

Papa Don't Preach and Donald fighting for the key second position as the loser faces traffic problems later

WATCH

Hold-up quartet getting boxed in turning for home with limited room to manoeuvre behind the prominent wall

NOTE

Marajito showing signs of needed fitness after 219-day break in market moves and early pace positioning

NOTE

Mrs Trump's market support indicating fitness levels after 170-day absence and trainer's 14-day strike rate

4:35 — £9 Racedays At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Oasis Cover likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dragon Spin and Tickettothestars led; the map had Oasis Cover in front.

Dragon Spin won at 6.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Oasis Cover

Prominent · 3

Dragon SpinStromnessContorno

Midfield · 2

Mademoiselle BelleTickettothestars

Hold Up · 3

Go Lockers GoO FortunaData Fata Secutus

Oasis Cover and Dragon Spin will likely share early pace duties, with Contorno and Stromness sitting handy in the prominent positions. The moderate early gallop should allow the hold-up brigade of Mademoiselle Belle, Data Fata Secutus, Go Lockers Go, Tickettothestars and O Fortuna to stay in touch through the early stages. Over this sharp 5f at Nottingham, the sustainable pace will set up a cavalry charge in the final two furlongs as the closers unleash their kicks. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can produce late speed, as the modest early pace will leave them perfectly positioned to strike.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If the early pace stays steady and the closers get clear runs

The sustained gallop allows horses like Go Lockers Go, Data Fata Secutus and Tickettothestars to position perfectly before unleashing decisive late kicks. The front-runners will have no answer to the closing speed of horses who thrive when able to quicken late.

Go Lockers GoData Fata SecutusTickettothestarsMademoiselle Belle

Pace Collapses Early

20% probability

If Oasis Cover and Dragon Spin go too slowly through the first three furlongs

The crawling early pace turns this into a sprint finish where any horse can win on the day. Prominent racers like Contorno and even the leaders can find enough to hold off the late charge when the closing sectional isn't fast enough.

Dragon SpinContornoOasis CoverStromness

True Pace Battle

12% probability

If multiple horses challenge Oasis Cover for the early lead creating genuine speed

The strong gallop stretches the field and makes it a test of pure stamina over speed. Go Lockers Go's recent form and proven ability at this trip makes him the standout, while others struggle with the pace demands.

Go Lockers GoTickettothestarsData Fata SecutusO Fortuna

Traffic Problems Decide

8% probability

If the large field and sprint finish creates interference in the straight

Running room becomes the decisive factor rather than pure ability, favouring horses with good draws or tactical speed to avoid trouble. Those who race prominently throughout avoid the scrimmaging that traps the hold-up horses.

Dragon SpinStromnessContornoOasis Cover

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Oasis Cover returning after 147 days off could need the run despite trainer Edward Bethell's 3/26 recent record

WATCH

Stromness making turf debut after four AW runs at Newcastle creates significant form question marks

NOTE

Go Lockers Go carrying 139lbs after 5lb rise following recent double needs to prove he can handle the weight

NOTE

Dragon Spin seeking first career win at attempt eight but dropping 1lb with consistent handicap placings

WATCH

Traffic problems likely in straight as nine runners compress in sprint finish over this sharp 5f course

5:10 — Safer Gambling With Betano Apprentice Handicap (Apprentice Training - Part Of RE Series) (GBBPlus)

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Lead contested: Dino Bellagio v Red DerekHISTORIC

How it ran

Dino Bellagio led, as the map showed.

Russian Rumour won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Dino BellagioRed Derek

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Russian RumourGentle Warrior

Dino Bellagio and Red Derek will contest the early lead in this small field, with both confirmed front runners likely to engage from the start. The honest gallop they create over 1m6f should play into the hands of the two hold-up horses, Russian Rumour and Gentle Warrior, who can track the pace and benefit from the strong early tempo. With only four runners, the race will develop into a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial in the straight. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can capitalize on the expected strong early pace set by the two leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Early Pace

45% probability

If Dino Bellagio and Red Derek go hard early and maintain honest fractions throughout

The sustained gallop will set up perfectly for Russian Rumour and Gentle Warrior to close strongly in the final furlong. Both hold-up horses have the class to exploit tired leaders over this staying trip.

Russian RumourGentle WarriorDino BellagioRed Derek

Tactical Battle

30% probability

If the two leaders settle into a moderate pace after initial sparring

The race becomes more tactical with positioning crucial, allowing the classier runners to assert late. Russian Rumour's course win and Gentle Warrior's ability become decisive factors.

Russian RumourGentle WarriorDino BellagioRed Derek

Bellagio Gets Away

15% probability

If Dino Bellagio dominates early and Red Derek fails to engage effectively

The Donald McCain runner can dictate terms from the front and potentially hold off late challenges. His staying ability and front-running style could prove effective in this small field.

Dino BellagioRed DerekRussian RumourGentle Warrior

Red Derek Surprise

10% probability

If Red Derek's light weight and front-running style combine perfectly on return

The 10-year-old could spring a surprise by making all or most of the running. His proven stamina over 1m6f and significant weight advantage might overcome his lower class.

Red DerekDino BellagioRussian RumourGentle Warrior

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Russian Rumour's 223-day layoff could blunt her finishing kick despite winning this race fresh last year

WATCH

Gentle Warrior's soft ground flop last time needs dismissing as both previous runs at Nottingham produced good efforts

NOTE

Dino Bellagio and Red Derek's early battle intensity will determine if hold-up horses get the strong pace they need

WATCH

Red Derek's 10-year-old legs and long absence since October could see him fade quickly if pressed early

NOTE

Conor Whiteley's aggressive style on Dino Bellagio may create the perfect setup for the two hold-up runners

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 9 May 2026.

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