Archive›Perth · 13 May 2026

Perth

13 May 2026 · 7 races

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2:00 — Murrayshall Country Estate Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · CLS4 · 11 runners

Lead contested: Frankies Fortune v Kayla's FriendFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lowlands led; the map had Frankies Fortune and Kayla's Friend in front.

Lowlands won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Frankies FortuneKayla's Friend

Prominent · 2

LowlandsHunters Spring

Midfield · 4

Poppies In JulyKaydenceExpensive EmotionOor Wish

Hold Up · 3

QuinnfinityNufinbutdatruthBracing Brook

Frankies Fortune and Kayla's Friend will contest the early lead, with both horses committed to front-running tactics creating an honest gallop throughout. Lowlands and Hunters Spring will track prominently behind the leaders, while the majority field (Bracing Brook, Quinnfinity, Expensive Emotion, Kaydence, Nufinbutdatruth, Oor Wish) will be held up off the pace. The dual pace scenario should create a solid tempo but not overly demanding fractions given this is a maiden hurdle field. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners and those with tactical pace who can position close enough to strike, as the hold-up horses face a significant disadvantage having to make up substantial ground against fresher legs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Strikes

45% probability

If the two leaders set reasonable fractions without burning each other out completely

Lowlands or Hunters Spring can utilize their prominent positions to strike when the leaders weaken, benefiting from perfect tactical positioning. Their styles allow them to stay close enough without doing the donkey work early.

LowlandsHunters SpringFrankies FortuneKaydence

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If one of the pace-setters gets first run on their rival and kicks clear approaching the last

Frankies Fortune appears the stronger of the two leaders and could dictate terms if allowed to control the tempo. Her recent form edge over Kayla's Friend suggests she can outlast her pace rival.

Frankies FortuneKayla's FriendLowlandsHunters Spring

Hold-Up Horse Powers Home

20% probability

If the early pace becomes overly aggressive and the leaders come back dramatically

Kaydence with Sean Bowen could time her challenge perfectly from off the pace, using superior class to reel in tired leaders. Her hold-up style only works if significant pace collapse occurs up front.

KaydenceExpensive EmotionBracing BrookQuinnfinity

Maiden Chaos Ensues

5% probability

If jumping errors or interference disrupts the anticipated pace dynamic significantly

The race becomes a lottery where any horse avoiding trouble can capitalize regardless of running style. Form and ratings become secondary to race positioning and jumping fluency.

Poppies In JulyQuinnfinityOor WishNufinbutdatruth

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Frankies Fortune with apprentice Alan Doyle could make crucial tactical errors when pace pressure intensifies

WATCH

Kaydence needs to be positioned closer than usual given the likely honest gallop up front

WATCH

Lowlands making first appearance for 135 days could need the run despite suitable race shape

NOTE

Poppies In July as the lightly raced unknown could outrun her odds if possessing untapped ability

NOTE

Watch for any early jumping errors that could disrupt the anticipated pace battle between the two leaders

2:33 — Murrayshall Country Estate Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Newtown Rambler v HypotenusHISTORIC

How it ran

Newtown Rambler and Shadowfax Of Rohan led, as the map showed.

Newtown Rambler won at 6.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Newtown RamblerHypotenus

Prominent · 2

Mister CessnaDance Thief

Midfield · 1

Shadowfax Of Rohan

Hold Up · 2

Next TwistGarde Des Champs

Newtown Rambler and Hypotenus will go forward early and establish a strong gallop over this sharp 2m trip at Perth. Both have the pace to set up an honest tempo, with Dance Thief and Mister Cessna likely to track them prominently. The sustained early pace will stretch the field and create opportunities for those who can travel well behind the speed. This race shape clearly favours prominent racers who can position close to the pace without getting embroiled in the early speed battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Strong Gallop

45% probability

If both Newtown Rambler and Hypotenus go hard from the start and maintain a strong tempo throughout

The honest pace will suit those positioned prominently who can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire. Dance Thief and Mister Cessna are perfectly placed to capitalize on this scenario.

Dance ThiefMister CessnaHypotenusNext Twist

Leaders Collapse Late

30% probability

If the early pace between Newtown Rambler and Hypotenus proves too strong and both tire dramatically

The strong early gallop sets up perfectly for the hold-up horses to sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong. Garde Des Champs and Next Twist have the class to exploit this scenario.

Next TwistGarde Des ChampsShadowfax Of RohanDance Thief

Tactical Battle

15% probability

If one leader drops out early leaving a more sedate pace for the remainder

The race becomes more tactical with a sprint finish, favoring horses with tactical speed who can position well. Mister Cessna and Hypotenus can adapt to these conditions best.

Mister CessnaHypotenusDance ThiefNext Twist

Wire-to-Wire Leader

10% probability

If Newtown Rambler or Hypotenus gets an uncontested lead and dictates throughout

One of the leaders maintains control and kicks clear when challenged, holding on for victory. The front-runner benefits from not having to engage in early pace pressure.

Newtown RamblerHypotenusDance ThiefMister Cessna

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Newtown Rambler and Hypotenus must be monitored for early pace intensity as both are natural leaders who could set up the race for others

WATCH

Next Twist returning from 79-day layoff needs to show full fitness despite impressive recent wins when fresh

NOTE

Garde Des Champs requires strong monitoring late given his hold-up style and top RPR rating of 128

WATCH

Dance Thief's trainer R Mike Smith has concerning 0/8 record over past 14 days which could impact preparation

NOTE

Shadowfax Of Rohan wearing new headgear combination of tongue-tie and hood for first time may indicate breathing issues being addressed

3:08 — Murrayshall Golf Handicap Hurdle

3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Manowest likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ebselysees led; the map had Manowest in front.

Ebselysees won at 7.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Manowest

Prominent · 2

Shoeshine BoyEbselysees

Midfield · 5

SuspectedBayonettaA Year OlderMaura JeanneDalileo

Hold Up · 4

Buy Some TimeLady In The ParkFairlawn SkipperCarismatic Soldier

Manowest is the only confirmed front runner and will set a sustainable pace from the start without pressure. Ebselysees and Shoeshine Boy may track close as prominent runners, but neither is aggressive enough to challenge for the early lead. With such a limited pace angle, the race will develop into a staying test where patient hold-up horses get ideal conditions to unleash late runs. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can deliver sustained finishes over the final half-mile.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Manowest sets uncontested fractions and the field remains bunched turning in

The patient hold-up brigade gets perfect tactical conditions as the pace lifts late, allowing multiple closers to deliver telling challenges. Class horses with finishing kicks thrive when the race becomes a pure staying test.

Lady In The ParkSuspectedBuy Some TimeCarismatic Soldier

Prominent Runners Strike

20% probability

If Ebselysees or Shoeshine Boy apply more early pressure than expected

The increased pace tempo stretches the field earlier, bringing prominent runners into contention as some hold-up horses fail to get competitive positions. Those tracking the pace inherit better winning positions.

EbselyseesShoeshine BoyManowestFairlawn Skipper

Manowest Wire-to-Wire

10% probability

If the front runner's sustainable gallop proves too strong for the closers

His uncontested lead builds into an unassailable advantage as the hold-up horses' challenges come too late on the testing ground. Patient tactics backfire when the leader maintains his rhythm.

ManowestEbselyseesFairlawn SkipperLady In The Park

Pace Collapse Surprise

5% probability

If Manowest stops suddenly or makes jumping errors under pressure

The race develops into a sprint finish between whoever is left with a chance, creating chaos where any running style can prevail. Form lines become irrelevant in a scrambled finish.

BayonettaDalileoMaura JeanneSuspected

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Manowest's jumping under pressure - any mistakes could gift the race to hold-up horses

WATCH

Lady In The Park's position turning in - needs clear run to unleash proven finishing kick

WATCH

Suspected's amateur rider tactical decisions - inexperience could waste horse's natural ability

NOTE

Early pace development - if more pressure than expected it changes the entire complexion

NOTE

Fairlawn Skipper's fitness after 176-day break - market support would indicate readiness

3:43 — Murrayshall Cairns Handicap Chase

3m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Burgundy Man to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Aill Dubh led; the map had Burgundy Man in front.

The Flying Poet won at 2.75 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Burgundy Man

Prominent · 1

Similar Story

Midfield · 4

Sir CarnegieJirkoAill DubhDefying Gravity

Hold Up · 2

AttaboyarchieThe Flying Poet

Burgundy Man will set the pace from the front with no serious early pressure, creating a sustainable gallop that won't collapse. Similar Story may track him prominently but lacks the pace-setting credentials to apply serious early heat. The tempo will be honest but not punishing, with most of the field sitting back in hold-up positions. This controlled pace strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid a cavalry charge, as the hold-up brigade will face a wall of horses when making their moves.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Burgundy Man Controls All

45% probability

If Burgundy Man gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm throughout

He dictates terms from the front while Similar Story tracks prominently, both avoiding the inevitable traffic problems behind. The pair can kick clear before the hold-up horses can organise their challenges.

Burgundy ManSimilar StoryThe Flying PoetSir Carnegie

Hold-Up Heroes Strike Late

30% probability

If the pace becomes too steady and Burgundy Man stops in the final furlong

The Flying Poet and Sir Carnegie benefit from Sean and James Bowen's tactical expertise to weave through traffic. Their class tells as they pick off a tiring leader with late surges.

The Flying PoetSir CarnegieBurgundy ManJirko

Midrace Collapse Chaos

15% probability

If Burgundy Man fades approaching two out and Similar Story inherits the lead

The race becomes a scramble with no clear pace-setter, suiting horses like Jirko who can quicken from mid-division. Attaboyarchie's staying power becomes crucial in a messy finish.

JirkoAttaboyarchieSimilar StoryAill Dubh

Pace Duel Backfires

10% probability

If Similar Story decides to challenge Burgundy Man early and they go too fast

Both leaders weaken dramatically, opening the door for Aill Dubh and other patient types to sweep past. The frantic early pace plays into the hands of the strongest stayers.

Aill DubhThe Flying PoetAttaboyarchieDefying Gravity

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Burgundy Man getting an easy uncontested lead - if no horse challenges him early, he could steal this from pillar to post

WATCH

Similar Story's early positioning - whether he tracks or challenges Burgundy Man will determine if there's any pace pressure

WATCH

The Flying Poet's jumping after 230 days off - any early mistake will kill his chances in this tactical affair

NOTE

Traffic problems in the straight - with six hold-up horses, late moves could get severely hampered

NOTE

Burgundy Man's response if challenged - recent form suggests he may not fight when pressured

4:18 — 125 Years Of Bruce Farms "Grassroots" Hunters' Chase (Corinthian Spirit Qualifier)

3m · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners

Potters Party likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Potters Party led, as the map showed.

Theoldboggroad won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Potters Party

Prominent · 1

Deerstalker

Midfield · 2

Phantoms CaveFoxinthebox

Hold Up · 2

TheoldboggroadRuler Of The River

Potters Party is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start with no early pressure from the small field. The prominent runners Foxinthebox and Deerstalker will track close behind, while hold-up horses Theoldboggroad and Ruler Of The River will settle at the back. With such a sustainable early gallop likely, this race strongly favours prominent trackers who can position handily and strike when the pace lifts, rather than horses needing to come from too far back in a small field over this stamina-testing trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Trackers Dominate

55% probability

If Potters Party sets a steady tempo and the prominent horses can position perfectly behind

The lack of early pace pressure allows Foxinthebox and Deerstalker to travel sweetly before pouncing when the pace quickens approaching the final obstacles. Their tactical positioning proves decisive over the hold-up horses who have too much ground to make up.

FoxintheboxDeerstalkerPotters PartyPhantoms Cave

Leader Holds On

25% probability

If Potters Party gets too easy a lead and maintains stamina reserves for the finish

The uncontested front running allows Potters Party to control the race completely and kick clear when challenged, with the chasing pack unable to reel in the leader's advantage. Class tells as the highest-rated horse exploits perfect conditions.

Potters PartyFoxintheboxDeerstalkerPhantoms Cave

Hold-Up Charge

12% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong despite appearances and the leaders tire

Theoldboggroad and Ruler Of The River benefit from a truly-run race as the front runners pay for their efforts over this demanding trip. The hold-up horses time their challenges perfectly as the pace collapses ahead.

TheoldboggroadRuler Of The RiverPotters PartyFoxinthebox

Lightly Raced Surprise

8% probability

If Phantoms Cave's limited experience masks significant improvement and the race sets up perfectly

The unexposed gelding benefits from the tactical pace and produces a career-best performance when positioned to strike. Previous promise translates into a breakthrough success against more exposed rivals.

Phantoms CavePotters PartyFoxintheboxTheoldboggroad

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Foxinthebox faces a massive fitness test returning from nearly two years off the track despite previous course-and-distance success

WATCH

Watch if Potters Party gets an uncontested lead early as the highest-rated horse could prove very hard to peel back

NOTE

Monitor how quickly Theoldboggroad and Ruler Of The River can get into contention if the pace becomes genuinely strong

WATCH

Deerstalker's year-long absence raises serious fitness doubts despite being a logical pace-tracker in this small field

NOTE

Check if Phantoms Cave can handle the step up to three miles given limited previous evidence at extended distances

4:55 — Murrayshall Meetings And Events Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Dublinofficecallin to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mistral Milly led; the map had Dublinofficecallin in front.

Prince Nino won at 67.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dublinofficecallin

Prominent · 4

Byron HillGonninoTakeyoutotheislandPrince Nino

Midfield · 2

Velvet VulcanPopa Rich

Hold Up · 3

Mistral MillyMayor Of MagheraGetaway Master

Dublinofficecallin provides the only confirmed front-running presence and should get an uncontested lead through the early stages. Behind him, Byron Hill, Gonnino, Prince Nino and Takeyoutotheisland will create significant congestion in the prominent positions, with potential traffic problems developing from 3 out as they jostle for racing room. The hold-up quartet of Mistral Milly, Popa Rich, Getaway Master, Mayor Of Maghera and Velvet Vulcan will need clear passages late but may benefit from the moderate pace. This race shape strongly favours front-running and hold-up horses who can avoid the prominent traffic jam.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dublinofficecallin Controls Tempo

45% probability

If the leader gets soft fractions and isn't pressured until late

Dublinofficecallin can dictate throughout and prove hard to peg back, while any hold-up horse finding a clear run benefits from the solid pace. The prominent group gets locked in traffic and can't mount effective challenges.

DublinofficecallinMistral MillyVelvet VulcanGetaway Master

Prominent Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the four prominent runners create a scrimmage from 3 out with multiple hard-luck stories

The pace becomes messy mid-race as Byron Hill, Gonnino, Prince Nino and Takeyoutotheisland interfere with each other's progress. This allows Dublinofficecallin to steal a march while hold-up horses sweep up late.

Popa RichVelvet VulcanDublinofficecallinMayor Of Maghera

Byron Hill Breaks Clear

15% probability

If Byron Hill can secure a dream passage through the prominent congestion and kick clear

His superior official rating and consistent form tells, breaking away from the traffic to chase down Dublinofficecallin. The Patrick Neville runner's tactical speed proves decisive in a race where positioning matters most.

Byron HillGonninoDublinofficecallinMistral Milly

Late Hold-Up Surge

10% probability

If both the leader tires and prominent runners get stopped in their tracks

Getaway Master or Mayor Of Maghera produce telling late kicks from clean runs while the pace collapses ahead of them. The Micky Hammond runner's recent Hexham second suggests he retains ability despite modest recent form.

Getaway MasterMayor Of MagheraVelvet VulcanPopa Rich

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for multiple fallers or interference incidents from 3 out as Byron Hill, Gonnino, Prince Nino and Takeyoutotheisland converge in prominent positions

WATCH

Monitor Dublinofficecallin's jumping rhythm early - any mistakes will invite pressure from the congested pack behind

NOTE

Prince Nino and Popa Rich both return from lengthy absences so watch for signs of fitness problems in the closing stages

WATCH

Keep eye on conditional jockeys Harry Atkins, Joshua Thompson and Dominic Hislop making key tactical decisions under pressure

NOTE

Watch for Velvet Vulcan and Getaway Master getting competitive late runs if the pace collapses ahead of them

5:25 — Murrayshall Meetings And Events Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Malangen to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Malangen led, as the map showed.

Loro White won at 11.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Malangen

Prominent · 2

Livano BelloIvynator

Midfield · 4

BetteryouthanmeKnockeranna RoseLoro WhiteThe Longest Day

Hold Up · 3

TheirshegoesJack DempseyBeat The Retreat

Malangen will set the pace unopposed as the only confirmed front-runner, with Livano Bello and Ivynator content to track in prominent positions behind. The lack of early pace pressure means Malangen can dictate terms and potentially sustain his effort longer than usual. With most runners adopting hold-up tactics, the race will likely develop into a waiting game before a late surge. This controlled tempo strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the large hold-up contingent.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Malangen Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Malangen maintains a steady gallop without serious challenge until the home turn

His light weight and unopposed lead allow him to kick clear when the field closes, while the hold-up horses get caught in traffic. Alan Doyle can time his effort perfectly from the front.

MalangenLivano BelloIvynatorBeat The Retreat

Prominent Pair Dominate

30% probability

If Livano Bello and Ivynator track Malangen closely and challenge turning for home

The prominent racers get first run on the leaders while avoiding the scramble behind, with their superior ratings telling. Joshua Thompson and Leah Noreci can position perfectly in the slipstream.

Livano BelloIvynatorMalangenBeat The Retreat

Hold-Up Horse Finds Gap

15% probability

If one of the stronger hold-up horses finds a clear passage through the field

Beat The Retreat or Theirshegoes could reproduce their best form with a trouble-free run from the back. The winner would need exceptional timing and a significant class edge.

Beat The RetreatTheirshegoesMalangenLivano Bello

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Malangen stops quickly or gets headed too early in the straight

The race becomes a sprint from the back where superior class matters most, but traffic problems remain severe. Only a horse with significant ability advantage could overcome the tactical disadvantage.

Livano BelloBeat The RetreatTheirshegoesKnockeranna Rose

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Malangen's jumping under pressure - if he makes an error when challenged, the race opens up completely

WATCH

Traffic problems at the home turn with seven hold-up horses needing room simultaneously

NOTE

Livano Bello's position tracking Malangen - if he gets too close too early, he may set up the race for others

WATCH

The Longest Day and Ivynator returning from long layoffs in a competitive handicap

NOTE

Beat The Retreat's jumping rhythm early - his recent win came with fluent jumping throughout

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 13 May 2026.

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