Archive›Perth · 14 May 2026

Perth

14 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:58 — Edinburgh Gin Classic Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · CLS4 · 13 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Scriabin led, as the map showed.

Kibris won at 13.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Way MakerEtretatScriabin

Prominent · 2

KibrisNae Bother At A'

Midfield · 4

L'Appel Du LargeStruthBreaking GroundBrewdog

Hold Up · 4

Hawthorn RoadHackley BayLexington WoodSonyourastar

Way Maker, Etretat, and Scriabin will clash early for the lead, creating a relentless gallop from the start. Way Maker brings recent winning form over fences and looks the most reliable pace-setter, while Etretat returns from a long break and Scriabin has been consistent in defeat recently. This strong early pace will stretch the field and test stamina over the final half-mile, setting up the race perfectly for hold-up horses with a finishing kick who can pick up the pieces late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

45% probability

If the three confirmed leaders go too fast early and fade

The sustained gallop from Way Maker, Etretat and Scriabin will empty their tanks, allowing patient hold-up horses to sweep past in the final furlong. This tactical setup strongly favours the closers with proven stamina.

Lexington WoodSonyourastarHawthorn RoadStruth

Pace Leader Survives

25% probability

If Way Maker or Scriabin can dictate without over-racing

The winner will come from the early leaders who can control the tempo and have enough left for the finish. Way Maker's recent winning form over fences gives him the edge if he can rate kindly.

Way MakerScriabinKibrisLexington Wood

Prominent Tracker Strikes

20% probability

If Kibris or another prominent runner gets the perfect trip

A horse tracking the leaders closely will have the ideal position to strike when the pace collapses but before the hold-up horses arrive. This requires precise timing and a good jumping round.

KibrisLexington WoodSonyourastarWay Maker

Maiden Surprise Package

10% probability

If the pace is unsustainable and form horses disappoint

One of the less exposed runners like Hackley Bay or Breaking Ground could benefit from a truly-run race where class matters less than stamina and jumping. Long odds but possible in a maiden.

Hackley BayBreaking GroundL'Appel Du LargeStruth

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Way Maker and Scriabin will clash for the early lead - if they go too fast both could fade dramatically

WATCH

Kibris returns after 108 days off which raises serious fitness concerns despite his prominent running style

NOTE

Etretat makes his hurdles debut after flat racing - watch his jumping and how he handles the pace

WATCH

Several runners including Hackley Bay and Brewdog have shown concerning tendencies to fade in the finish

NOTE

The Murphy-trained pair Sonyourastar and Lexington Wood could benefit most if the strong pace materializes

2:33 — DM Hall Surveyors Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Red Happy likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Inis Oirr led; the map had Red Happy in front.

Largy Force won at 2.25 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Red Happy

Prominent · 1

Ned Tanner

Midfield · 2

Cosmic BlizzardInis Oirr

Hold Up · 2

Largy ForceBusty Boy

Red Happy will take this race by the scruff of the neck from the start, with his prominent style and recent front-running wins suggesting he'll dictate terms. Ned Tanner and Cosmic Blizzard may try to sit handy, but with three hold-up horses (Busty Boy, Largy Force, Inis Oirr) needing the pace to develop, Red Happy faces minimal early pressure. The 3-mile trip on soft ground should see Red Happy stretch the field through the middle stages, creating a searching gallop that will test stamina reserves. This race shape strongly favours the front-runner and any horse that can travel prominently, as the hold-up brigade face a significant disadvantage with limited pace pressure early.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Red Happy Dominates

45% probability

If Red Happy jumps well and faces no early pressure from the prominent runners

Red Happy gets an uncontested lead and builds an insurmountable advantage through the testing middle stages. The hold-up horses are left with too much to do when the real racing begins.

Red HappyNed TannerCosmic BlizzardLargy Force

Prominent Duel Develops

30% probability

If Ned Tanner or Cosmic Blizzard press Red Happy from an early stage

A genuine pace battle emerges that sets the race up perfectly for the stronger staying hold-up horses. Largy Force's superior class and Busty Boy's consistency become decisive factors.

Largy ForceBusty BoyInis OirrRed Happy

Steady Pace Suits Closers

15% probability

If Red Happy goes too slow early trying to conserve energy for the finish

The lack of genuine pace allows the hold-up horses to get into contention without expending energy. Largy Force's proven soft ground form and recent wins give him the edge in a sprint finish.

Largy ForceInis OirrBusty BoyNed Tanner

Red Happy Stops Late

10% probability

If Red Happy's recent busy schedule or the testing conditions catch up with him in the final furlong

The front-runner's tanks empty just when the closers hit top gear, creating a dramatic late reversal. Busty Boy's hold-up style and solid recent form make him the primary beneficiary.

Busty BoyLargy ForceNed TannerInis Oirr

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Red Happy's jumping under pressure - any early mistakes could derail his front-running tactics completely.

WATCH

Largy Force's position turning in - if he's further back than usual, the lack of pace will have compromised his chance.

WATCH

Cosmic Blizzard's fitness after 72 days off - any signs of blowing early will confirm the layoff has dulled his edge.

NOTE

Ned Tanner's enthusiasm early - if he's unusually keen, it could provide the pace pressure needed to set up the race.

NOTE

Busty Boy's position at halfway - needs to be within striking distance despite his hold-up style given the likely lack of pace.

3:08 — Edinburgh Gin Hugo Spritz Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Dubhain to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Follow Charlie led; the map had Dubhain in front.

Dubhain won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dubhain

Prominent · 1

Easy To Follow

Midfield · 4

Carismatic SoldierMoyganny PhilFollow CharlieDalileo

Hold Up · 3

Bold LightSummergroundsSun Art

Dubhain is the sole confirmed front-runner and will get an uncontested lead in this weak pace scenario, setting a steady tempo over the extended 2m4f trip on testing ground. Easy To Follow may sit prominent but is returning from 112 days off, leaving Dubhain largely unopposed through the early stages. The large field of hold-up horses including Bold Light, Summergrounds, and Carismatic Soldier will be bunched behind, creating a tactical crawl before a frantic finish. This race shape clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can steal a decisive advantage before the wall of closers can mount their challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dubhain Steals Easy Lead

45% probability

If Dubhain gets the expected soft lead without pressure from Easy To Follow early

The pace becomes dangerously slow, allowing the leader to dictate completely and kick clear when the closers are still getting organized. Hold-up horses face an impossible task from too far back on the testing ground.

DubhainEasy To FollowBold LightSummergrounds

Closers Time It Right

30% probability

If the pace collapses completely and the field comes home in a bunch

The superior class of Bold Light and Summergrounds tells in a cavalry charge finish, with their proven form at this level showing. Multiple horses hit the line together with the best horses prevailing.

Bold LightSummergroundsSun ArtFollow Charlie

Murphy Stable Dominance

15% probability

If Carismatic Soldier and Easy To Follow both run to their best for in-form Olly Murphy

The stable's tactical awareness sees Easy To Follow press early while Carismatic Soldier is delivered late, creating a one-two punch. Murphy's strong 4/16 record suggests both runners are primed.

Easy To FollowCarismatic SoldierMoyganny PhilDubhain

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If multiple horses challenge Dubhain early and the pace becomes truly run throughout

The genuine gallop sets up perfectly for the strongest stayers, with horses coming from impossible positions. The race becomes a test of stamina rather than tactics.

Sun ArtBold LightDalileoFollow Charlie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Easy To Follow shows any early keenness after the long break - could ruin Dubhain's easy lead scenario

WATCH

Watch Bold Light's jumping rhythm early - needs to travel smoothly to deliver his trademark late kick

NOTE

Watch Sean Bowen's positioning on Moyganny Phil - top jockey may have been given confident instructions

WATCH

Watch the pace through the first mile - if genuinely steady, the front two may prove impossible to catch

NOTE

Watch Carismatic Soldier's settles pattern - needs to drop out completely to reproduce his Chepstow win

3:43 — Edinburgh Gin Hugo Spritz Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Lets Mingle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kado Sacree led; the map had Lets Mingle in front.

Kado Sacree won at 2.20 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lets Mingle

Prominent · 3

Kado SacreeAtlantic CitySauce Of Life

Midfield · 2

Annie AgnewGetaway Master

Hold Up · 3

Kinbara FirstdraftWasdell DundalkLargy Meadow

Lets Mingle represents the sole confirmed front-runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead early on. With most runners adopting prominent or hold-up tactics, there's insufficient early pressure to create a truly searching gallop over this stamina-testing 2m4f trip on soft ground. The lack of pace pressure means Lets Mingle can dictate terms from the front, while the prominent runners like Atlantic City, Kado Sacree and Annie Agnew will need to commit earlier than ideal to stay competitive. This tactical setup clearly favours front-runners and early prominent types who can secure good positions without expending excessive energy.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lets Mingle Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Lets Mingle gets away with soft fractions through the early stages

The lack of early pace allows the leader to store energy for a sustained kick, making it extremely difficult for hold-up horses to close the gap on testing ground. Prominent runners who track closely benefit from the steady tempo but may lack the tactical advantage of the front-runner.

Lets MingleAtlantic CityKado SacreeAnnie Agnew

Prominent Battle Develops

30% probability

If Atlantic City and Kado Sacree press Lets Mingle from the early stages

The increased tempo stretches the field and brings stamina into play, suiting those with proven staying power over the trip. Hold-up horses face an impossible task as the pace quickens beyond the ideal closing sectional.

Atlantic CityKado SacreeLets MingleSauce Of Life

Hold-Up Horses Closing

15% probability

If the early pace completely collapses and becomes pedestrian throughout

The lack of any meaningful gallop allows patient riders to deliver late challenges, though they still face the disadvantage of covering extra ground. Proven stayers with tactical speed can capitalise on a sprint finish scenario.

Kinbara FirstdraftWasdell DundalkLargy MeadowGetaway Master

Collapse After Pressure

10% probability

If early pace pressure causes the leaders to capitulate dramatically

Those who avoided the early battle can pick up the pieces, but this requires a significant collapse from well-handicapped front-runners. The soft ground makes recovery from early exertion extremely difficult.

Sauce Of LifeAtlantic CityKinbara FirstdraftGetaway Master

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Getaway Master ran just yesterday which presents serious recovery concerns for this stamina test

WATCH

Watch Lets Mingle's early fractions as uncontested lead could prove decisive on this demanding ground

WATCH

Atlantic City's conditional jockey James King claiming 3lb provides significant weight advantage in tight handicap

NOTE

Sauce Of Life and Wasdell Dundalk both return from 200+ day breaks raising obvious fitness questions

NOTE

Monitor early positions of Kinbara Firstdraft and other hold-up horses as they face clear tactical disadvantage

4:18 — Edinburgh Gin Seaside Handicap Hurdle

2m · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Castle Ivers v Trust HouseHISTORIC

How it ran

Castle Ivers led, as the map showed.

Castle Ivers won at 4.33 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Castle IversTrust House

Prominent · 2

Double ObanOh Janey

Midfield · 1

Just Dottie

Hold Up · 2

MagnoliaPure Gold

Castle Ivers and Trust House will contest the early lead, with both Murphy-trained front runners having shown ability to dictate terms at this trip. Double Oban and Oh Janey should sit prominent behind the leaders, while the hold-up quartet of Just Dottie, Pure Gold, and Magnolia will need the pace to be strong enough to set up their late charges. With two confirmed pace-setters ensuring an honest gallop over 2 miles on soft ground, this race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and strike turning for home rather than out-and-out hold-up horses who may find themselves too far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Murphy Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Trust House or Castle Ivers gets an uncontested lead and controls the fractions

The leader will dictate comfortable splits and prove too strong in the finish, with soft ground suiting their stamina profiles. The prominent trackers will pick up the pieces but struggle to reel in the pacesetter.

Trust HouseCastle IversDouble ObanOh Janey

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the two leaders go too hard early and compromise each other

Double Oban or Oh Janey will benefit from tracking the pace battle and have enough left to strike decisively in the straight. The early leaders will weaken from their exertions allowing the prominent runners to take over.

Double ObanOh JaneyTrust HouseJust Dottie

Hold Up Horse Charges

15% probability

If the early pace is genuinely strong and the leaders come back dramatically

Just Dottie or Magnolia will benefit from a truly-run race that sets up perfectly for their closing kicks. The soft ground will aid their stamina reserves over the final two furlongs.

Just DottieMagnoliaPure GoldDouble Oban

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If both leaders go too slow and it becomes a sprint finish

The race becomes a tactical affair where Pure Gold's class could shine in a messy finish. Any horse with a turn of foot will have chances in a bunched field.

Pure GoldDouble ObanJust DottieOh Janey

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Trust House and Castle Ivers both want to lead - if they engage in early speed duel it could compromise both Murphy runners

WATCH

Oh Janey returning from 195-day layoff against race-fit opponents, market support will indicate readiness

NOTE

Just Dottie needs strong early pace from the leaders to set up her hold-up style effectively

WATCH

Pure Gold's low TopSpeed figure of 102 suggests she may lack the finishing kick needed in tactical finish

NOTE

Double Oban ideally placed to benefit if the two leaders clash, with prominent style suiting race shape perfectly

4:55 — Edinburgh Cannonball Handicap Chase

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Tanking Along to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tanking Along led, as the map showed.

Sir Carnegie won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tanking Along

Prominent · 1

Traveling Soldier

Midfield · 2

Wings On WheelsUncle Al

Hold Up · 2

Carrigeen CastleSir Carnegie

Tanking Along stands alone as the confirmed front-runner and will control the tempo from the start without early pressure. With five hold-up horses (Carrigeen Castle, Sir Carnegie, Wings On Wheels, Uncle Al) and just one prominent runner (Traveling Soldier), this creates a tactical speed duel waiting to happen in the final half-mile. The steady early gallop will suit the patient types, but when Traveling Soldier and the hold-up brigade make their moves, it becomes a question of who has the most tactical speed. This race shape strongly favours horses with proven finishing kick from off the pace, as they'll have every chance to time their challenge perfectly against an uncontested leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Brigade Pounces

55% probability

If the patient runners time their challenges perfectly against the uncontested leader

The steady early pace sets up perfectly for the closers, with Tanking Along becoming a sitting duck when the cavalry charges. Sir Carnegie and Carrigeen Castle, both proven over similar trips, benefit most from this tactical setup.

Sir CarnegieCarrigeen CastleUncle AlWings On Wheels

Traveling Soldier Strikes

25% probability

If the sole prominent runner bridges the gap effectively between leader and pack

Traveling Soldier uses his tactical position to track Tanking Along before pouncing, avoiding the late traffic that could hinder the hold-up horses. His recent good form and Sean Bowen's tactical nous prove decisive in this intermediate position.

Traveling SoldierSir CarnegieTanking AlongCarrigeen Castle

Front Runner Dominates

12% probability

If Tanking Along's recent Goodwood second translates to strong current form and the chasers leave it too late

The uncontested leader builds an unassailable advantage as the hold-up horses fail to coordinate their challenges effectively. Charlie Maggs keeps things simple from the front while the others get in each other's way.

Tanking AlongTraveling SoldierSir CarnegieWings On Wheels

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If Tanking Along goes too slow and gets swamped by multiple challengers turning for home

The lack of early pace creates a cavalry charge finish where the best jumper and strongest stayer prevails. This messy scenario could suit an outsider who avoids the inevitable trouble in running.

Wings On WheelsUncle AlSir CarnegieTraveling Soldier

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Tanking Along goes too fast early - could collapse and create messy finish favouring hold-up horses with tactical speed

WATCH

Watch Traveling Soldier's jumping after 192 days off - any early mistakes will destroy his perfect tactical position between leader and pack

NOTE

Watch Sir Carnegie's fluency at the fences - has winning form but jumping errors could cost him when challenges develop

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the straight with five hold-up horses converging - could favour Traveling Soldier's tracking position

NOTE

Watch Uncle Al's early enthusiasm - longest price but cheekpieces work and recent poor form might have lowered expectations artificially

5:28 — Edinburgh Gin Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · CLS4 · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 14 May 2026.

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