2:18

Archive›Perth · 2 July 2026

Perth

2 July 2026 · 6 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →
2:18 — Horizon Group Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m · Good · CLS4 · 11 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:48 — Kettle Produce Handicap Hurdle
2m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Pergamon likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ravenscraig Castle led; the map had Pergamon in front.

Pergamon won at 3.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Pergamon
Prominent · 1
Pure Gold
Midfield · 2
Ravenscraig CastleInterchangeable
Hold Up · 2
Just DottieTigress Lilly
Pergamon is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with only Pure Gold likely to push for early prominence, will be allowed to dictate from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good ground over 2m at Perth. Pure Gold will attempt to sit just off the pace in second or third, creating a tight, compressed lead group with no real pressure applied through the middle stages — a pattern that rewards the horse able to quicken from a handy position rather than grind from out the back. Ravenscraig Castle and Interchangeable are genuine prominent and hold-up types respectively but, with Pergamon and Pure Gold already filling the front two berths, both are likely to find themselves racing in a more restrained position than suits their natural game. This shape — a single uncontested leader setting honest but not brutal fractions — strongly favours prominent/handy racers who can travel smoothly and pounce between the last two flights, rather than hold-up horses requiring a true searching pace to close the gap. This field contains more pace-seeking types than the race shape can accommodate: Ravenscraig Castle is the most likely prominent racer to actually secure that position, with Interchangeable likely unable to get close enough to exploit a late challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Pergamon Controls, Handy Wins
70% probability
If Pergamon dictates an uncontested lead and the pace remains steady, allowing a prominent rival to track and strike
If Pergamon dictates an uncontested lead and the pace remains steady, allowing a prominent rival to track and strike
PergamonPure GoldRavenscraig CastleJust Dottie
B
Front Runner Pinched It
14% probability
If Pergamon is never seriously challenged and conserves enough to hold on all the way to the line
If Pergamon is never seriously challenged and conserves enough to hold on all the way to the line
PergamonPure GoldRavenscraig CastleJust Dottie
C
Hold-Up Horse Storms Late
10% probability
If the pace is quicker than expected and the front group ties up in the straight, giving the hold-up horses a run
If the pace is quicker than expected and the front group ties up in the straight, giving the hold-up horses a run
Just DottieInterchangeableRavenscraig CastleTigress Lilly
D
Pace Collapse, Race Scrambled
6% probability
If Pergamon is pressured early, burns out, and the race devolves into a ragged scramble with no clear shape
If Pergamon is pressured early, burns out, and the race devolves into a ragged scramble with no clear shape
Ravenscraig CastleJust DottiePure GoldInterchangeable

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHPergamontpPure GoldRavenscraig Cas…bInterchangeableJust DottieTigress Lillyt1. Pergamon2. Pure Gold3. Ravenscraig Castle5. Interchangeable4. Just Dottie6. Tigress Lilly
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Pergamon has won twice at 2m on Good recently and controls the pace entirely — if he jumps cleanly and is allowed to bowl along uncontested, the race is effectively his to give away.
WATCH
Ravenscraig Castle's true nature as a prominent racer means Danny McMenamin may push forward early regardless of the mapped position — watch for a challenge for the front rank in the first half-mile that could briefly heat up the pace before settling.
WATCH
Just Dottie is the hold-up runner best placed to benefit if the pace quickens unexpectedly, but William Maggs must find a clear run at the last — a compact field of six at Perth can compress and block late runners easily.
NOTE
Tigress Lilly's Good-ground form (0 from 4 on similar going, sim-going 4/7) is a concern worth monitoring in-running — if she is struggling to go the pace from the outset, discount any latent market confidence.
NOTE
Pure Gold's trainer has had only one runner in the past 14 days — low volume can occasionally signal a specific target race, worth noting if Pure Gold drifts or shortens sharply in the ring before the off.
3:18 — Secure Air Parks Edinburgh Airport Parking Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Gunnery Sergeant likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Button Rock won at 29.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Gunnery Sergeant
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
Jiair MadrikGarde Des ChampsKinbara FirstdraftButton Rock
Hold Up · 2
Wasdell DundalkMoodofthemoment
Gunnery Sergeant is the sole confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rivals likely to press for the lead, Sean Bowen can dictate from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop over this 2m4f trip on Good ground at Perth. The field behind him is dominated by hold-up horses — Wasdell Dundalk, Moodofthemoment, Garde Des Champs, Kinbara Firstdraft, Button Rock and Jiair Madrik all prefer to race off the pace — meaning Gunnery Sergeant faces no meaningful early pressure and can set his own terms throughout. The field holds more genuine hold-up types than the race map can place at the rear, with Garde Des Champs, Kinbara Firstdraft and Jiair Madrik all redistributed to midfield positions they would not naturally occupy, meaning crowding behind the leader is likely and getting a clear run will be a premium. This race shape — an uncontested leader controlling a steady pace through the early stages — strongly favours prominent and front-running profiles, with hold-up horses needing significant late momentum that an unhurried gallop may simply not generate.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Gunnery Sergeant Dominates
65% probability
If Gunnery Sergeant bowls along uncontested and the steady pace leaves chasers with too much to find off the home turn.
If Gunnery Sergeant bowls along uncontested and the steady pace leaves chasers with too much to find off the home turn.
Gunnery SergeantMoodofthemomentWasdell DundalkGarde Des Champs
B
Chaser Reels Him In Late
18% probability
If the pace proves quick enough to stretch the field and a strong-finishing hold-up horse produces a telling late run.
If the pace proves quick enough to stretch the field and a strong-finishing hold-up horse produces a telling late run.
MoodofthemomentWasdell DundalkGarde Des ChampsJiair Madrik
C
Midfield Horse Pounces
11% probability
If the redistributed hold-up types who are mapped to midfield manage to secure a forward position and race closer than their natural style suggests.
If the redistributed hold-up types who are mapped to midfield manage to secure a forward position and race closer than their natural style suggests.
Jiair MadrikGarde Des ChampsMoodofthemomentKinbara Firstdraft
D
Muddled Finish
6% probability
If jumping errors or interference disrupt the order and the race degenerates into a scramble in the straight.
If jumping errors or interference disrupt the order and the race degenerates into a scramble in the straight.
Kinbara FirstdraftButton RockWasdell DundalkMoodofthemoment

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHGunnery SergeanttpJiair MadrikhtGarde Des ChampstpKinbara Firstdr…Button RockWasdell DundalkpMoodofthemomentp1. Gunnery Sergeant5. Jiair Madrik4. Garde Des Champs6. Kinbara Firstdraft7. Button Rock3. Wasdell Dundalk2. Moodofthemoment
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Gunnery Sergeant sets a very controlled pace on Good ground — watch whether any of the hold-up pack, particularly Moodofthemoment, can generate enough momentum off such a slow tempo to mount a genuine challenge.
WATCH
The cluster of redistributed hold-up horses — Garde Des Champs, Kinbara Firstdraft and Button Rock — will all be seeking similar racing room turning for home; congestion and interference in the straight is a real risk that could compromise more than one runner's chance.
WATCH
Jiair Madrik's non-runner status needs confirming at the final declaration stage — if he does line up, his two recent wins on Good ground alter the competitive picture materially.
NOTE
Moodofthemoment returning just 11 days after his last run is worth monitoring in the paddock; connections clearly feel he is in form but the quick turnaround on Good ground over a longer 2m4f trip is a stamina query worth watching in the early exchanges.
NOTE
Button Rock's 51-day absence for Gordon Elliott — who has been very active in the past 14 days — could mean a fitness question or simply a delayed entry; watch for market support as a guide to whether the stable feels he is ready.
3:50 — PWA Architecture Handicap Hurdle
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Malangen to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bayonetta led; the map had Malangen in front.

Fairly Fulling won at 7.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

0 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Malangen
Prominent · 4
BayonettaBetteryouthanmeTop Flight CenturyFairly Fulling
Midfield · 3
King KodiakBreaking GroundDreamings Free
Hold Up · 3
SonyourastarFourofakindLenko
Malangen is the sole confirmed front-runner and will lead from the outset at a sustainable clip on Good ground over 2m4f at Perth, a track that rewards accuracy and jumping rather than raw galloping speed. With no genuine rival to press Malangen for the lead, expect a measured, controlled tempo that keeps the race together until the final circuit, where the pace will lift organically. The field behind is heavily populated by prominent and hold-up types — Bayonetta, Betteryouthanme, and Top Flight Century will look to track closely, while Sonyourastar, Fourofakind, and Lenko sit further back. This shape — a steady single leader, a compact chasing pack, and a late acceleration — strongly favours prominent racers with clean jumping and stamina who can sit just behind the leader and pick Malangen off in the straight, rather than true closers needing a strong gallop to close from deep. The field holds more genuine hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear: King Kodiak, Breaking Ground, and Dreamings Free are all natural hold-up horses, but with three of them present, only one or two can realistically secure that position; the others will find themselves racing more prominently than ideal, diluting their chance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce
62% probability
If Malangen dictates a steady gallop unchallenged and the race is won by a prominent tracker who jumps efficiently and outstays the leader.
If Malangen dictates a steady gallop unchallenged and the race is won by a prominent tracker who jumps efficiently and outstays the leader.
BayonettaBetteryouthanmeTop Flight CenturyFairly Fulling
B
Leader Outstays Field
18% probability
If Malangen's controlled fractions allow it to bowl into the straight full of running and hold every challenger at bay.
If Malangen's controlled fractions allow it to bowl into the straight full of running and hold every challenger at bay.
MalangenBayonettaBetteryouthanme
C
Hold-Up Horse Lands Late
13% probability
If the pace unexpectedly quickens mid-race and creates enough of a genuine gallop to bring a hold-up horse through on the bridle.
If the pace unexpectedly quickens mid-race and creates enough of a genuine gallop to bring a hold-up horse through on the bridle.
FourofakindDreamings FreeKing KodiakSonyourastar
D
Messy, Compressed Finish
7% probability
If the steady gallop results in a bunched run-in with multiple horses throwing down challenges simultaneously from different positions.
If the steady gallop results in a bunched run-in with multiple horses throwing down challenges simultaneously from different positions.
BetteryouthanmeTop Flight CenturyFairly FullingBayonetta

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHMalangenBayonettapBetteryouthanmeTop Flight Cent…pFairly FullingtpKing KodiaktpBreaking GroundhDreamings FreehSonyourastartFourofakindpLenkop5. Malangen1. Bayonetta2. Betteryouthanme3. Top Flight Century4. Fairly Fulling6. King Kodiak7. Breaking Ground8. Dreamings Free9. Sonyourastar10. Fourofakind11. Lenko
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Betteryouthanme returns just 11 days after a win and has the best recent form of any prominent runner in this field — watch whether the quick turnaround dulls its effectiveness or it takes full advantage of tracking Malangen into a slow-run race.
WATCH
Malangen's uncontested lead could turn this into a lottery from the final flight — watch the pace throughout, particularly at the top of the home straight, to see whether any prominent horse can apply enough pressure to force an error or a tired jump.
WATCH
Bayonetta, Betteryouthanme, and Top Flight Century are all prominent-style runners and cannot all slot in immediately behind Malangen — watch for early positioning battles and potential crowding at the first hurdle that could unsettle the race shape.
NOTE
King Kodiak, Breaking Ground, and Dreamings Free are all natural hold-up horses, and with all three present only one can realistically settle at the back; watch which, if any, does so cleanly — the others will be racing out of role and their form figures become less reliable as a result.
NOTE
Dreamings Free returns from 192 days off and is worth monitoring in the early stages — a hold-up horse coming back from a long break in a race with limited pace is a volatile combination, and how it travels in the first half will reveal whether it is ready to run its race today.
4:25 — Horizon Parking UK's Leading Parking Company Handicap Chase
3m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
The Flying Poet likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Burgundy Man led; the map had The Flying Poet in front.

The Flying Poet won at 2.25 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
The Flying Poet
Prominent · 2
Get A SuperstarBurgundy Man
Midfield · 2
Twp StoriDefying Gravity
Hold Up · 2
Cosmic BlizzardThehairyfella
The Flying Poet is the lone confirmed front runner here and, with no genuine pace rival to push him across the first mile, he is able to dictate a sustainable, controlled tempo over this 3m trip on Good ground at Perth. Get A Superstar and Burgundy Man are natural prominent racers who will seek to press close behind, creating a compact but unhurried early gallop rather than a searching test. This shape — a measured pace with a single horse in control — classically rewards those able to track the leader from the front two or three positions, conserving energy before jumping the final bend fence and extending from the front. The field holds more prominent-to-front types than the map can naturally accommodate: The Flying Poet is best placed to secure the lead, with Get A Superstar and Burgundy Man the two most likely to achieve the next positions, meaning Twp Stori — a genuine prominent racer — is likely to find itself racing further back than it wants, and its chance is tempered accordingly.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Controlled Lead, Front Dominates
68% probability
If The Flying Poet settles comfortably in front and the pace remains measured throughout.
If The Flying Poet settles comfortably in front and the pace remains measured throughout.
The Flying PoetGet A SuperstarBurgundy ManThehairyfella
B
Prominent Tracker Pounces
17% probability
If The Flying Poet makes an error or tires after the third last, allowing a close tracker to sweep past.
If The Flying Poet makes an error or tires after the third last, allowing a close tracker to sweep past.
Get A SuperstarBurgundy ManThehairyfellaCosmic Blizzard
C
Late Finisher Sweeps Through
10% probability
If the early pace is just quick enough to take a toll and the closers find daylight from two out.
If the early pace is just quick enough to take a toll and the closers find daylight from two out.
ThehairyfellaCosmic BlizzardDefying GravityTwp Stori
D
Chaos — Errors and Attrition
5% probability
If multiple fencing errors or fallers disrupt the front rank and an unexpected rival inherits a winning position.
If multiple fencing errors or fallers disrupt the front rank and an unexpected rival inherits a winning position.
ThehairyfellaDefying GravityTwp StoriCosmic Blizzard

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHThe Flying PoettbGet A SuperstarpBurgundy MantpTwp StoripDefying GravitytCosmic BlizzardtThehairyfellab1. The Flying Poet2. Get A Superstar3. Burgundy Man5. Twp Stori6. Defying Gravity7. Cosmic Blizzard4. Thehairyfella
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Watch The Flying Poet at the early fences — if Sean Bowen can establish control without being pressed, the race could be over as a contest by the home turn on each circuit.
WATCH
Get A Superstar's jockey Charlie Hammond must act decisively from the stalls to claim one of the two seats immediately behind the leader; if Burgundy Man or another prominent type crowds him out, his chance diminishes sharply.
WATCH
Twp Stori's redistribution to midfield is a genuine tactical handicap — monitor whether Benjamin Macey (5lb claim) attempts to push forward regardless; if he does, the early gallop could quicken slightly and alter the scenario probabilities.
NOTE
Thehairyfella's veteran stamina profile is worth monitoring from the third-last fence — if the pace has been sufficient to string the field out, he could be closing late and represents the most credible hold-up threat on sim-going figures.
NOTE
Defying Gravity's fade tendency combined with 36 days off the track is a flag to watch if it travels prominently early — any signs of jumping errors or laboured movement between the final two fences would confirm the fading-in-finish concern.
5:00 — AEJ Facilities Management Handicap Hurdle
3m · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
The Best Way to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Myfavouritesister led; the map had The Best Way in front.

Dalileo won at 6.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
The Best Way
Prominent · 1
Creadan Grace
Midfield · 5
Loro WhiteC'Mon SoPrince NinoMyfavouritesisterKing Gold Boy
Hold Up · 3
Maggies BoyLes's LegacyDalileo
The Best Way is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 3m Perth handicap hurdle and, with no other genuine lead horse in the field, Danny McMenamin can dictate from the front at whatever tempo suits on Good ground. At 3m on Good, that is likely to be a steady-to-honest gallop rather than a lung-bursting affair, meaning The Best Way's lead will be uncontested and potentially very difficult to peg back in the home straight. The field contains a significant cluster of hold-up types — Loro White, C'Mon So, Prince Nino, Myfavouritesister and King Gold Boy are all true rear-to-midfield horses — but with five such runners and only one confirmed front-runner, several of them will be jostling for position further forward than their natural style and are unlikely to settle where they want; Creadan Grace, with a prominent tag and the best recent form in the race, is the likeliest to secure the position closest to The Best Way. The race shape strongly favours a front-runner or a single, well-positioned prominent horse who can track the pace and pounce at the last, rather than the swarm of hold-up types who face a long and potentially fruitless hunt from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Front Runner Controls
58% probability
If The Best Way bowls into an uncontested lead and sets a sustainable pace that denies the hold-up horses a meaningful late run.
If The Best Way bowls into an uncontested lead and sets a sustainable pace that denies the hold-up horses a meaningful late run.
The Best WayCreadan GraceMaggies BoyDalileo
B
Prominent Pouncer Strikes
22% probability
If The Best Way sets a genuine pace and a prominent stalker gets the perfect racing position to attack approaching the last.
If The Best Way sets a genuine pace and a prominent stalker gets the perfect racing position to attack approaching the last.
Creadan GraceMaggies BoyDalileoLoro White
C
Hold-Up Horse Swamps Late
12% probability
If The Best Way goes too hard early and the hold-up horses benefit from a strong pace that brings them into the race in the final half-mile.
If The Best Way goes too hard early and the hold-up horses benefit from a strong pace that brings them into the race in the final half-mile.
Maggies BoyDalileoLoro WhiteC'Mon So
D
Messy Midfield Scramble
8% probability
If the unnatural positioning of multiple redistributed horses causes interference, checks and a slow early pace that collapses into a sprint finish.
If the unnatural positioning of multiple redistributed horses causes interference, checks and a slow early pace that collapses into a sprint finish.
Prince NinoMyfavouritesisterLes's LegacyKing Gold Boy

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHThe Best WayCreadan GracepLoro WhitetpC'Mon SoPrince NinotpMyfavouritesist…tpKing Gold BoyhMaggies BoypLes's LegacytpDalileo1. The Best Way2. Creadan Grace5. Loro White6. C'Mon So7. Prince Nino8. Myfavouritesister9. King Gold Boy3. Maggies Boy10. Les's Legacy4. Dalileo
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
The Best Way's jumping — McMenamin will be setting his own pace in front and any mistake at a hurdle could bring the field back to him and change the complexion entirely; watch the early fences to see if he travels fluently or gets in tight.
WATCH
Crowded midfield positioning at the first few hurdles is a serious risk given five horses have been redistributed from their natural hold-up positions — Loro White, C'Mon So, Prince Nino, Myfavouritesister and King Gold Boy could all be caught in a pocket or forced wide on the first circuit.
WATCH
Creadan Grace's price is likely to shorten significantly if The Best Way shows any signs of being caught cold at the start — Elliott's horse wants to travel prominently and needs a clear sightline; watch the draw and early positioning to see if Robert Dunne can sit directly behind the leader.
NOTE
King Gold Boy returning after 206 days with Jean McGregor's limited recent evidence is a significant unknown — jumps horses that have been off that long frequently make jumping errors on return and could cause interference in a tightly bunched midfield.
NOTE
Maggies Boy's form string includes a PU, suggesting jumping reliability is not guaranteed even if Sean Quinlan is in the plate; at 3m on Good, any jumping error in the home straight could cost a horse with hold-up running style that needs everything to go right.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 2 July 2026.

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