Archive›Perth · 22 April 2026

Perth

22 April 2026 · 8 races

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1:40 — Welcome To The Perth Festival Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m4f · Soft · CLS4 · 10 runners

Newbrook Diamond likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Newbrook Diamond led, as the map showed.

Gee Force Flyer won at 1.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Newbrook Diamond

Prominent · 1

Gee Force Flyer

Midfield · 5

Holy JoeExpensive EmotionMinutes To SpareEagle's CairnRun Baby Run

Hold Up · 3

Off The JuryPrince PhilHeffalump

Newbrook Diamond is the only confirmed front runner and will set an uncontested lead from the start. With Gee Force Flyer likely to track him in second, the pace will be moderate and sustainable through the early stages. The lack of pace pressure means the race will develop into a tactical affair where stamina and jumping efficiency become paramount over the extended 2m4f trip. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay the trip and produce a sustained finish, as the leaders will have plenty left for a genuine gallop from the final flight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

60% probability

If the moderate pace allows closers to conserve energy and unleash late runs

The uncontested lead means Newbrook Diamond and Gee Force Flyer will still be there turning for home but vulnerable to stronger stayers. Hold-up horses with proven stamina will have the tactical advantage to pick them off in the final half-mile.

Off The JuryHeffalumpGee Force FlyerNewbrook Diamond

Front Two Hold On

25% probability

If Newbrook Diamond and Gee Force Flyer have enough left after the moderate early gallop

The lack of early pace pressure means both leaders retain enough energy to resist the late challenge. Their established jumping rhythm and forward position prove decisive over this stamina-testing distance.

Newbrook DiamondGee Force FlyerOff The JuryExpensive Emotion

Maiden Winner Emerges

10% probability

If the experienced runners fail to capitalise and one of the newcomers shows untapped ability

The tactical nature of the race allows an improving type to slip through and demonstrate superior natural ability. Holy Joe or Expensive Emotion could surprise if their point form translates effectively to rules racing.

Holy JoeExpensive EmotionHeffalumpPrince Phil

Pace Collapse Shock

5% probability

If Newbrook Diamond stops quickly and Gee Force Flyer also fades dramatically in the straight

The absence of any genuine pace-setter creates a crawling finish where any horse with a gear change can win. Even the outsiders get a chance in what becomes a sprint finish from the last flight.

Prince PhilHeffalumpEagle's CairnMinutes To Spare

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Newbrook Diamond could stop quickly if his 0-6 hurdles record reflects a genuine stamina limitation at this trip

WATCH

Off The Jury needs monitoring for wind issues given his pulled-up effort at Haydock and subsequent operations

NOTE

Holy Joe and Expensive Emotion deserve respect as unraced newcomers from quality connections despite going concerns

NOTE

Gee Force Flyer's consistent soft ground placings make him the most reliable each-way option in this weak maiden

WATCH

Minutes To Spare is a non-runner which removes one potential hold-up challenger from the scenario mix

2:10 — Balnakeilly Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: It's Hard To Know v Walking On A DreamHISTORIC

How it ran

Walking On A Dream led, as the map showed.

Barlovento won at 3.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

It's Hard To KnowWalking On A Dream

Prominent · 3

King RolyFind A FortuneGreat Pepper

Midfield · 1

Wolfburg

Hold Up · 2

BarloventoKarafon

It's Hard To Know and Walking On A Dream will force an honest early pace with both confirmed front-runners likely to contest the lead from flagfall. The small field of eight runners means there won't be excessive pressure, allowing these leaders to dictate a solid but not punishing gallop through the first mile. King Roly and Great Pepper sitting prominent will keep them honest without creating a collapse scenario. This setup creates a genuine test of stamina over the final 4-5 furlongs, clearly favouring hold-up horses like Barlovento, Karafon, and Wolfburg who can produce finishing kicks when the pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If the front-runners maintain their honest pace throughout the race.

The leaders will weaken in the final half-mile, allowing closers with tactical speed to sweep past in the closing stages. Horses held up off the pace will have the freshest finishing kick when it matters most.

BarloventoWolfburgKarafonFind A Fortune

Prominent tracker strikes

25% probability

If King Roly or Great Pepper can sit the perfect trip just behind the leaders.

One of the prominent runners will have the ideal position to strike when the leaders tire but before the hold-up horses fully wind up. Their forward position gives them first run on the field when the race develops.

King RolyGreat PepperBarloventoFind A Fortune

Front-runner stays strong

12% probability

If Walking On A Dream gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home.

The leader will have enough left in the tank to repel late challenges, especially with the jockey's 5lb claim reducing the burden. The honest pace won't be strong enough to completely drain the leader's stamina reserves.

Walking On A DreamIt's Hard To KnowKing RolyGreat Pepper

Pace collapses completely

8% probability

If both leaders go too fast early or make jumping errors.

The race becomes a sprint finish with all runners bunched together at the last fence. Any horse with a turn of foot regardless of position could capitalize on the tactical chaos.

Find A FortuneGreat PepperKing RolyKarafon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

It's Hard To Know may not be race-fit after 137 days off and could fold quickly if pressed by Walking On A Dream early.

WATCH

King Roly's fitness after 193-day layoff is crucial - any signs of rustiness in the paddock would be significant.

WATCH

Great Pepper's jumping needs monitoring as he pulled up last time and any early mistakes could end hopes.

NOTE

Walking On A Dream's 5lb claimer Jack Power must not let the pace become too strong in the opening mile.

NOTE

Wolfburg's late entry and quick turnaround from Monday's Kelso win - watch for any signs of hard race effects.

2:40 — British EBF Gold Castle 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race)

3m · Soft · LST · 6 runners

Lead contested: No Drama This End v Blue RunHISTORIC

How it ran

Tormund Giantsbane led; the map had No Drama This End and Blue Run in front.

No Drama This End won at 1.73 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

No Drama This EndBlue Run

Prominent · 1

Kazansky

Midfield · 1

Sogna In Grande

Hold Up · 2

Sept EtoilesTormund Giantsbane

No Drama This End and Blue Run are the confirmed front runners, but with Blue Run a non-runner, No Drama This End will face less early pressure and can dictate terms from the front. The pace-setters Kazansky (prominent) and potentially Sogna In Grande will track the leader, but this small field creates a risk of steady fractions early before quickening. The hold-up horses Tormund Giantsbane and Sept Etoiles will be relying on the pace collapsing, but with only one natural leader remaining, this race shape strongly favours those who can travel kindly in the first three positions and have the class to sustain their effort.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Classy Leader Dominates

45% probability

If No Drama This End gets an uncontested lead and controls the tempo

The Paul Nicholls runner can use his superior class rating (OR 144) to dictate fractions and kick clear when it matters. His three hurdle wins have all come from prominent positions and this tactical advantage could prove decisive.

No Drama This EndKazanskySogna In GrandeTormund Giantsbane

Hold-Up Horse Pounces

30% probability

If the pace becomes steady early and creates a sprint finish

The lack of genuine pace pressure allows Tormund Giantsbane or Sept Etoiles to get into contention and unleash their finishing kicks. Both have shown they can quicken off slower gallops and benefit from tactical racing.

Tormund GiantsbaneSept EtoilesNo Drama This EndKazansky

Improving Type Strikes

15% probability

If Sogna In Grande or unexposed runners step forward significantly

The Kim Bailey runner is unbeaten over hurdles (2-2) and could have more improvement than the others realize. His hold-up style works if he gets the right pace setup and his trainers are in good form.

Sogna In GrandeSept EtoilesNo Drama This EndTormund Giantsbane

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If No Drama This End goes too fast early trying to dominate or ties up

The leader could pay for doing too much work alone up front, allowing any of the closers to pick up the pieces. This would particularly suit Kazansky who can travel prominently without leading.

KazanskyTormund GiantsbaneSept EtoilesSogna In Grande

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

No Drama This End could get an easy lead with Blue Run withdrawn - watch if he can dictate his preferred fractions

WATCH

Kazansky has pulled up before and his fitness after 40 days absence needs monitoring early in the race

NOTE

Sogna In Grande is trained by Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls partnership who have limited runners but decent strike rate

WATCH

The pace could go steady early with only one natural front runner - this would disadvantage the hold-up horses

NOTE

Tormund Giantsbane was 12 lengths behind No Drama This End when they met at Sandown in December

3:10 — Fair Maid Of Perth Mares' Chase (Listed Race) (GBB Race)

3m · Soft · LST · 4 runners

Panic Attack likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Panic Attack led, as the map showed.

Apple Away won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Panic Attack

Prominent · 1

Apple Away

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

ShecouldbeanythingRuby Island

Panic Attack will likely lead or share the pace with Apple Away, both prominent runners who can dictate from the front. With only four runners and no confirmed hold-up specialists, the early pace should be genuine but not suicidal over this 3m trip. Shecouldbeanything and Ruby Island will need to track the leaders and hope for a strong finish. This shape clearly favours the prominent runners who can control the tempo and kick for home when it matters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Panic Attack Controls

55% probability

If Panic Attack recovers fully from Grand National exertions and dictates the pace

The 10-year-old uses superior class (OR 147) to dominate from the front, with Apple Away struggling to match the relentless gallop. Recent Listed winner proves too strong in the finish.

Panic AttackApple AwayShecouldbeanythingRuby Island

Apple Away Redemption

25% probability

If Apple Away finds her 2022 winning form and Panic Attack shows fatigue effects

The former winner uses course knowledge and soft ground expertise to outlast a below-par Panic Attack in a tactical battle. Lucinda Russell's mare peaks at the right moment.

Apple AwayPanic AttackRuby IslandShecouldbeanything

Ruby Island Progression

12% probability

If the pace collapses and Ruby Island's stamina kicks in late

The improving chaser benefits from a slow-run race that becomes a sprint finish, using her progressive profile to outfinish tiring leaders. Nicky Richards' timing proves perfect.

Ruby IslandShecouldbeanythingApple AwayPanic Attack

Shecouldbeanything Bounce

8% probability

If Gordon Elliott's mare shows no ill-effects from Irish National pull-up

The hold-up performer finds the steady pace ideal for a late charge, overcoming recent disappointment with a trademark finish. Class tells in the final furlong.

ShecouldbeanythingRuby IslandPanic AttackApple Away

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Panic Attack showing any signs of the Grand National taking its toll in the early stages

WATCH

Apple Away's jumping rhythm after such a long layoff period

NOTE

Ruby Island's ability to cope with this significant step up in grade

WATCH

Shecouldbeanything's early enthusiasm given recent headgear addition

NOTE

The pace development with only four runners and potential for tactical riding

3:40 — Bedmax Capercaillie Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Jigoro likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sunnyvilla led; the map had Jigoro in front.

Heltenham won at 2.88 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jigoro

Prominent · 2

SunnyvillaFringill Dike

Midfield · 2

Aeros LuckCoup De Coeur

Hold Up · 2

HeltenhamThe Other Mozzie

Jigoro will take them along at a reasonable clip with Fringill Dike, Aeros Luck and Sunnyvilla tracking close behind in the early stages. The pace won't be demanding given limited early speed, allowing the hold-up horses Heltenham, Coup De Coeur and The Other Mozzie to settle comfortably in behind. This modest gallop will set up a sprint finish over the final 3-4 furlongs where positioning and stamina reserves become crucial. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can quicken late, disadvantaging those who need a strong pace to soften up front-runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Steady Pace Finish

45% probability

If Jigoro sets only a moderate pace and the field stays bunched

The race becomes a 2-furlong dash where class and finishing kick matter most. Hold-up horses with proven acceleration like Heltenham and Coup De Coeur can unleash their finishing speed from ideal positions.

HeltenhamCoup De CoeurAeros LuckSunnyvilla

Prominent Tactical Win

30% probability

If Fringill Dike or Aeros Luck press Jigoro early and increase the tempo

The increased pace stretches the field and favours those tracking the leaders who can inherit the race. Prominent racers avoid traffic problems and can strike approaching the final fence when leaders tire.

Aeros LuckSunnyvillaFringill DikeCoup De Coeur

Hold-Up Surge Late

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a crawl

The race becomes a pure sprint from the home turn where only horses with explosive acceleration can win. Heltenham's 2m4f pedigree and The Other Mozzie's class become decisive factors in a slowly-run contest.

HeltenhamThe Other MozzieCoup De CoeurJigoro

Front-Runner Dominance

10% probability

If Jigoro gets an uncontested lead and no one pressures

The Gordon Elliott-trained gelding can dictate terms completely and prove hard to peg back. His recent form suggests he has the stamina to maintain his advantage if allowed easy sectionals throughout.

JigoroFringill DikeAeros LuckSunnyvilla

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Heltenham jumping the final fence in front as his hold-up style and class advantage make him formidable in a finish

WATCH

Jigoro getting an uncontested lead through the early stages as Gordon Elliott's charge could prove hard to reel in

WATCH

Coup De Coeur's jumping throughout the race as his erratic fencing could cost him when well-positioned

NOTE

The Other Mozzie's early settling for new connections as stable debutants can struggle with tactical changes

NOTE

Aeros Luck tracking the pace early as his prominent style suits this race shape and he carries minimal weight

4:10 — Scone Palace Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Atlantic City likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Spit Spot led; the map had Atlantic City in front.

Atlantic City won at 5.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Atlantic City

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

Fresh As A DaisySpit SpotJust An ArtistTread Softly Now

Hold Up · 2

Flying FortunePitwood Road

Atlantic City looks the only natural pace-setter in this small field of seven, giving her a comfortable lead without pressure from the start. With six hold-up horses including Flying Fortune, Fresh As A Daisy, and Spit Spot all likely to be held up, this creates a stop-start rhythm with a moderate gallop for most of the journey. The lack of pace pressure means Atlantic City can dictate terms and potentially steal a march, while the hold-up brigade may find themselves with too much to do if she gets away with soft fractions. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and early pace-setters who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Atlantic City Steals It

45% probability

If Atlantic City gets uncontested fractions and kicks for home early enough

The lack of early pace allows her to build an unassailable lead while the hold-up horses get in each other's way. Her recent Haydock second shows she has the ability, and with tactical advantage she can outrun her OR of 105.

Atlantic CityTread Softly NowFlying FortuneFresh As A Daisy

Class Tells Late

30% probability

If the hold-up horses can organize themselves and mount a coordinated challenge

Flying Fortune's superior class (OR 122) and four-race winning streak in 2024 tells, despite her recent poor form. The soft ground suits her perfectly and she gets a strong pace to aim at.

Flying FortuneFresh As A DaisyAtlantic CityPitwood Road

Course Specialist Strikes

15% probability

If Spit Spot reproduces her course form with the addition of cheekpieces

Her two wins here last autumn on similar ground give her a significant edge, and the headgear change could spark improvement. Just An Artist's course win also comes into play as the locals benefit.

Spit SpotJust An ArtistAtlantic CityFlying Fortune

Henderson Filly Improves

10% probability

If Fresh As A Daisy builds on her recent Newbury effort despite the poor result

The Nicky Henderson factor and her previous 2m4f win suggest she's better than her handicap debut showed. The softer ground and more suitable pace scenario could unlock her potential.

Fresh As A DaisyPitwood RoadFlying FortuneAtlantic City

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Atlantic City getting easy fractions early - if uncontested she could steal this from the front

WATCH

Flying Fortune's jumping - any mistakes will be costly given her hold-up style and need to make up ground

WATCH

The pace through the middle stages - if too steady the hold-up horses will struggle to get into the race

NOTE

Fresh As A Daisy's position turning in - Henderson's conditional jockey needs to have her handy enough to strike

NOTE

Spit Spot's response to the cheekpieces - first time headgear change could be the key to unlocking her course ability

4:40 — Equine Products Best Turned Out Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

3m · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

Rioja Alta likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rioja Alta and Jeteye led, as the map showed.

Suspected won at 8.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rioja Alta

Prominent · 2

JeteyeCoylton King

Midfield · 5

Pure SirloinNo RematchDon BroccoLennie GodberMillford Hill

Hold Up · 3

Follow CharlieSuspectedBollin Matilda

Rioja Alta will likely set the pace from the front with limited pressure, as most rivals prefer to sit behind or hold up positions. Jeteye and Coylton King may track the leader in prominent positions, but the majority of this field are hold-up horses including Bollin Matilda, Follow Charlie, and Suspected. The soft ground and 3-mile trip will create a searching test of stamina, with the pace likely to be steady early before quickening significantly from the back straight. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can establish good positions early and avoid traffic problems that could plague the large contingent of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Rioja Alta gets an uncontested lead and maintains a steady gallop...

The pace will be manageable early allowing her to conserve energy for a strong finish, with the hold-up horses struggling to make up ground on the soft surface. Her proven form on similar conditions and ability to dictate terms makes her very dangerous.

Rioja AltaJeteyeCoylton KingBollin Matilda

Prominent Tracker Pounces

30% probability

If Jeteye or Coylton King can track the pace and time their challenge perfectly...

They can get first run on the leader while the hold-up horses are still making their move from the rear. The soft ground will make it difficult for back-markers to close the gap once these prominent runners establish a lead.

JeteyeCoylton KingRioja AltaFollow Charlie

Hold-Up Horse Surprise

15% probability

If the early pace becomes too strong or the front-runners tire dramatically...

Bollin Matilda or Follow Charlie could benefit from a truly-run race where stamina becomes the deciding factor. However, they need significant pace collapse and perfect positioning from their amateur jockeys.

Bollin MatildaFollow CharliePure SirloinSuspected

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If Rioja Alta goes too fast early or gets pressured by the prominent racers...

The race could fall apart in the final mile allowing a closer like Pure Sirloin to pick up the pieces. This requires multiple front-runners to make tactical errors and ideal splits for the hold-up horses.

Pure SirloinNo RematchDon BroccoLennie Godber

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rioja Alta could steal this if allowed to dictate terms uncontested from the front

WATCH

Amateur jockeys on several hold-up horses may struggle with tactical positioning in large field

NOTE

Soft ground will make it difficult for back-markers to close once leaders establish advantage

WATCH

Bollin Matilda carries penalty from last win and faces 4lb rise in handicap mark

NOTE

Follow Charlie's stamina over 3m remains questionable despite course form over shorter

5:12 — Equine Products Best Turned Out Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Div II)

3m · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners

Kells Priory likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ebselysees and Monsieur Le Fuzz led; the map had Kells Priory in front.

Ebselysees won at 19.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kells Priory

Prominent · 3

Maillot BlancEbselyseesPalm Beach

Midfield · 4

Blue IndigoCk O'MaraRoi Du RoumeAm I Bovvered

Hold Up · 3

ShighnessMonsieur Le FuzzMaura Jeanne

Kells Priory will likely lead with Maillot Blanc, Ebselysees, Palm Beach and Blue Indigo up prominent, creating a solid gallop but nothing savage over this 3m trip on soft ground. The hold-up brigade of Shighness, Maura Jeanne, Monsieur Le Fuzz, Ck O'Mara, Am I Bovvered and Roi Du Roume will track behind in what should be a truly-run staying test. With amateur jockeys aboard and the testing conditions, the pace will be honest rather than frantic, allowing patient tactics to prosper. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay every yard and finish with a sustained challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If the pace proves testing but not breakneck over 3m on soft ground with amateur riders settling their mounts

The prominent group will weaken in the final half-mile as the stamina test bites, allowing the patient hold-up performers to sweep past with superior fitness and tactical positioning. Horses like Shighness, Maura Jeanne and Monsieur Le Fuzz have proven 3m+ form and will benefit from being delivered late.

ShighnessMaura JeanneMonsieur Le FuzzCk O'Mara

Prominent Pair Battle

20% probability

If Kells Priory and Maillot Blanc maintain a strong gallop and both stay the trip well

These two will dominate from the front with their superior class showing through, potentially running the hold-up horses out of it if they can maintain their stamina. Both have solid form at the trip and won't mind the conditions.

Kells PrioryMaillot BlancEbselyseesPalm Beach

Surprise Improver Strikes

10% probability

If one of the lesser-rated horses finds significant improvement stepping up to 3m in these testing conditions

The pace will suit an unexposed type who has been crying out for this distance, with the soft ground helping their stamina reserves. Am I Bovvered or Blue Indigo could be the beneficiaries of a truly-run race.

Am I BovveredBlue IndigoRoi Du RoumePalm Beach

Class Horse Gets Away

5% probability

If Kells Priory is allowed an easy lead and amateur jockey tactics play into his hands

The ex-Irish performer will use his superior class rating to build an unassailable advantage, with the chasing pack leaving their runs too late on the testing surface. His recent Wincanton fourth suggests he's ready to strike.

Kells PrioryMaillot BlancEbselyseesMaura Jeanne

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kells Priory getting too soft a lead early - amateur jockeys may not press him and allow him to control the race

WATCH

Shighness and Maura Jeanne getting too far back - both need to be positioned to strike in the final mile

WATCH

Palm Beach's jumping after two recent falls - any early mistakes will end her chances immediately

NOTE

Blue Indigo's settling - has pulled hard before and needs to relax to see out this extended trip

NOTE

First-time headgear on Blue Indigo and blinkers first time on Shighness potentially improving performance

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 22 April 2026.

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