Follow Your Luck won at 1.67 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 1 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Follow Your Luck
Prominent · 1
Dunkerque
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 0
None
Follow Your Luck is the sole confirmed front-runner in this two-horse contest and will lead from the outset under Brian Hughes, setting a sustainable gallop over 2m4f on Good ground at Perth with zero pressure from behind. Dunkerque, ridden prominently by Sean Quinlan, will track Follow Your Luck closely throughout — in a field of two, this effectively means the pair will race in tandem for the vast majority of the trip, with the real contest beginning at the final fences. This race shape is unusually simple: a controlled, single-file procession that will develop into a two-horse jumping battle from the home turn, with the winner decided by class, jumping accuracy and stamina reserves in the closing stages. The shape marginally favours Dunkerque's prominent-chasing profile given his superior OR, form, and proven ability on Good ground, but Follow Your Luck's front-running comfort means the lead scenario carries genuine weight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Held On
72% probability
If Follow Your Luck jumps cleanly and dictates an uncontested, measured gallop throughout.
Follow Your Luck settles into his natural front-running rhythm with no rival to force the pace higher, conserving energy for the finish; Hughes can control the tempo entirely and build a decisive jump advantage if Dunkerque makes an error.
Follow Your LuckDunkerqueFollow Your LuckDunkerque
B
Dunkerque Wears Down Leader
18% probability
If Dunkerque travels powerfully in behind and reels in Follow Your Luck from the second-last fence.
Quinlan keeps Dunkerque within striking distance throughout and the superior OR (132 vs 122) tells from two out as the higher-class horse asserts; Dunkerque's six wins from 15 runs on Good ground underline his suitability to these conditions.
DunkerqueFollow Your LuckDunkerqueFollow Your Luck
C
Jumping Error Changes Race
7% probability
If either runner makes a significant blunder at a fence that materially disrupts their momentum or position.
A loose jumper or costly mistake by either horse in a two-runner race immediately hands the advantage to the other; this scenario is entirely dependent on a specific jumping incident rather than any tactical shift.
Follow Your LuckDunkerqueDunkerqueFollow Your Luck
D
Dramatic Last-Fence Finish
3% probability
If both horses are inseparable entering the last and the race is decided by the final jump and flat sprint.
With only two runners tracking each other throughout, this outcome is possible but unlikely given the class and fitness edge Dunkerque holds; a clean jump at the last from either horse would likely be sufficient to seal the result before a sprint develops.
DunkerqueFollow Your LuckDunkerqueFollow Your Luck
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Follow Your Luck's jumping must be monitored closely — as a front-runner in a two-horse field, any fence error will be immediately punishing with no cover and no room to recover position.
WATCH
Dunkerque is 18 days fresh; Jennie Candlish's yard is 1/13 over 14 days suggesting the stable is not in peak flow, and backers should watch the market move for confidence signals.
WATCH
Follow Your Luck's Good-ground record (0W1P from three comparable starts) is noticeably weaker than his Soft-ground form — watch whether the Going sticks at Good or eases before the off.
NOTE
With only two runners, there is no pace scenario involving pressure or tactical complexity — the entire race hinges on jumping fluency and which horse has most left from two fences out; watch the jumping of both horses at fences 3 and 4 for early indicators.
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:20 — Auto Services Perth 24-Hour Recovery Handicap Hurdle Race
2m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Lead contested: Scriabin v NobotheratallHISTORIC
How it ran
Nobotheratall led, as the map showed.
Inappropriate won at 8.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
ScriabinNobotheratall
Prominent · 1
Try Them
Midfield · 3
Pure GoldJust DottieElemental Eye
Hold Up · 2
CastleheathInappropriate
Scriabin and Nobotheratall are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the off over this 2m trip at Perth, creating a genuinely contested pace rather than a dawdle — on Good ground this should produce an honest, rhythmic gallop across the eight hurdles. Try Them will push forward to dispute or sit just off the pace, compressing the field early and ensuring no one gets an easy lead without a fight. This race shape — two legitimate front-runners duelling with a prominent type pressing — classically suits horses who can travel fluidly in behind and pick up with one run from the second-last, making midfield-to-hold-up horses the primary beneficiaries, provided they are genuine in that role. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — Pure Gold, Just Dottie, and Elemental Eye are true hold-up horses redistributed to midfield on the map; of these, Elemental Eye's recent course-and-distance form gives it the best chance of actually being positioned where it needs to be, though all three may find themselves racing less than ideally placed given the pace scenario.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Closers Strike
52% probability
If Scriabin and Nobotheratall burn each other up through a genuine early gallop and the field races at an honest clip throughout.
The duel between the two front-runners uses their reserves across 2m on Good ground, leaving the door open for a horse who has travelled sweetly in midfield to sweep past from the second-last flight; Castleheath and Inappropriate are both course-profiled hold-up horses with Good-ground form who can deliver a single telling run.
CastleheathInappropriateTry ThemNobotheratall
B
Front-Runner Dominates Wire-to-Wire
27% probability
If one of the two front-runners — most likely Scriabin given stronger lead history at this trip — gains a clear early advantage and is allowed to dictate a controlled, measured pace.
With a sustainable gallop rather than a true duel, the leader conserves energy and the hold-up horses never generate enough momentum to peg them back over just 2m; Scriabin's record of two wins and five places from nine Good-ground starts underlines this suitability.
ScriabinNobotheratallTry ThemPure Gold
C
Prominent Types Outstay Field
13% probability
If the pace proves genuine but the hold-up horses fail to close — being out of position — and a prominent racer saves ground from just off the lead.
Try Them, who won over this C&D on Good going last time, sits a length or two off the duel and pounces at the second-last as the front-runners weaken; Nobotheratall, dropping from 2m4f where he won and ran well, may also find this trip sharp enough to sustain a late surge from just off the pace.
Try ThemNobotheratallScriabinInappropriate
D
Hold-Up Horses Land Late
8% probability
If the pace is truly fierce and the entire front rank ties up simultaneously, creating a vacuum for true closers to come from well off the bridle.
Pure Gold, Just Dottie, and Elemental Eye are all genuine hold-up types but each is likely displaced in the field map; with STYLE_FIT tags signalling they may not find their natural rear position, this scenario is structurally unlikely — Elemental Eye's two-mile wins give it the best claim if it does get a true rails run late.
Elemental EyePure GoldJust DottieCastleheath
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Scriabin and Nobotheratall will lock horns for the lead from flag to flag — if neither concedes, watch for both to empty approaching the final hurdle, leaving the race wide open for anything tracking them.
WATCH
Try Them won over this C&D last time and Brian Hughes will be intent on getting a prominent pitch — if he pushes to the front group early, a three-way pace battle develops and the race could become truly strong.
WATCH
Inappropriate is only 13 days off his last run; watch his behaviour in the paddock and early jumping for any signs that the quick turnaround has left him short, as his hold-up profile requires him to travel well throughout.
NOTE
Pure Gold, Just Dottie, and Elemental Eye are all genuine hold-up types likely to find themselves further forward than ideal — watch where they actually settle in the first half-mile, as any who successfully drop to the rear may be better placed than the pace map implies.
NOTE
Castleheath has strong Good-ground form but ran in a 168f race last time — monitor how he handles the drop to a sharper 2m at Perth where getting a clear passage from the back is not guaranteed in an 8-runner field.
3:50 — Auto Services Mercedes Benz Truck Aftersales Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)
3m · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Regal Renaissance likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No Regrets led; the map had Regal Renaissance in front.
Sir Carnegie won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Regal Renaissance
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 2
Inis OirrSir Carnegie
Hold Up · 2
Wasdell DundalkNo Regrets
Regal Renaissance is the sole confirmed front-runner in this five-runner field and, with no genuine pace rival to challenge her, she is set to dictate from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop over the 3m trip on Good ground at Perth. The four remaining runners — Wasdell Dundalk, No Regrets, Inis Oirr, and Sir Carnegie — are all hold-up types by nature, meaning the pace Regal Renaissance sets will be uncontested and she can conserve energy through the early and middle stages before quickening from the front off a relatively honest tempo. This race shape overwhelmingly favours the patient hold-up horses who can track the leader from a distance and pounce off a strong staying finish in the closing stages, with Inis Oirr and Sir Carnegie the redistributed runners who in truth prefer to come from further back but have been mapped forward due to the surplus of rear-rank types this field generates. The tactical verdict is clear: uncontested front-running from Regal Renaissance creates a thorough-staying test, and the horse best able to sustain a long, relentless gallop from off the pace — rather than a sprint finish — will be best placed to capitalise.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Regal Renaissance Controls Unchallenged
69% probability
If Regal Renaissance bowls along at a measured, uncontested pace and her rivals fail to close the gap in time.
She dictates every yard of the 3m trip, conserving energy through the middle section before extending at the business end off a comfortable lead; her recent win record at this trip on Good ground (three wins from four similar-going runs) underlines this is the most likely shape.
If the hold-up horses — particularly No Regrets or Wasdell Dundalk — reel in Regal Renaissance over the final two fences as the pace tells on her off a longer layoff.
The genuine staying ability of the hold-up brigade becomes decisive as the 47-day absence from Regal Renaissance softens her edge late on; a strong gallop extracts maximum stamina from the field and the closers flourish.
No RegretsWasdell DundalkInis OirrSir Carnegie
C
Midfield Types Capitalise
9% probability
If Inis Oirr or Sir Carnegie, both true hold-up horses shown in midfield due to redistribution, manage to find a race-saving position and unleash a sustained late run.
Despite being mapped forward, their natural inclination to race from the rear means they could find momentum if the race develops into a true stamina test over the closing mile; Sir Carnegie's yard is in excellent 14-day form (6/23) which marginally keeps this live.
Sir CarnegieInis OirrNo RegretsWasdell Dundalk
D
Disrupted Jumping Scramble
6% probability
If errors at fences destabilise the race shape — unseats, falls or jumping mistakes — creating a chaotic finish where the race order is reset.
In a small field of five over fences, any significant jumping incident could hand the race to a rival who avoids trouble; at 3m on Perth's right-handed track, stamina and jumping soundness become the arbiter.
No RegretsWasdell DundalkRegal RenaissanceSir Carnegie
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Regal Renaissance's 47-day absence is the key risk — if she fails to see out the 3m trip on returning from a break, the hold-up horses will sweep past her from the final fence.
WATCH
Sir Carnegie's headgear change (hood) is significant to watch in the early stages — if it sharpens him into a more prominent position than expected, the race shape could shift meaningfully.
WATCH
No Regrets has had a 93-day break and his best form is on Soft ground — if the Good surface blunts his finishing kick, the hold-up scenario collapses and Regal Renaissance benefits further.
NOTE
Gregor Walkingshaw's 10lb claim on Inis Oirr makes the weight attractive, but in a race where his mount needs to race against its natural style, watch whether the pair can find a rhythm settling further back than the pace map shows.
NOTE
With all four rivals being hold-up types, watch the early pace — if any of them break sharply and push up to challenge Regal Renaissance, the uncontested lead scenario is immediately undermined and a stronger pace test emerges.
Kinbara Firstdraft led; the map had Lets Mingle in front.
Annie Agnew won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lets Mingle
Prominent · 3
Spit SpotAnnie AgnewHawkseye View
Midfield · 3
Garrick PainterKinbara FirstdraftTigress Lilly
Hold Up · 3
Follow CharlieLowlandsBogha Baiste
Lets Mingle is the sole confirmed front-runner here and, with no natural rival to push the tempo, is expected to bowl along at a sustainable gallop from flag to finish over this 2m4f Perth trip on Good ground. Spit Spot, Annie Agnew, and Hawkseye View will press forward into prominent positions just off the leader, creating a compact early order but without the headlong speed that would seriously test Lets Mingle's stamina. The hold-up brigade — Follow Charlie, Lowlands, and Bogha Baiste — will need to close ground from further back, but with a controlled pace it is far from certain the race will be truly run to suit deep closers. This shape — an uncontested leader, measured tempo, and a tight early group — strongly favours horses who can race prominently or just off the pace and quicken from a handy position; true hold-up horses face the additional task of making up ground against a race that may never fully string out. The field holds more genuine hold-up types than can all be accommodated at the rear, with Garrick Painter, Kinbara Firstdraft, and Tigress Lilly redistributed to midfield on the map — of the three, Garrick Painter and Kinbara Firstdraft are most likely to actually find cover in the middle pack.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lets Mingle Controls Throughout
62% probability
If Lets Mingle is allowed to bowl along unchallenged and sets a gallop the field cannot disrupt.
Lets Mingle dictates a measured pace throughout, stealing margins that a compressed field of prominent and hold-up types struggle to claw back on this flat Perth circuit. Horses racing handy — Spit Spot, Annie Agnew — are best placed to respond when the leader kicks, while back-markers face a straightforward winning distance.
Lets MingleSpit SpotAnnie AgnewFollow Charlie
B
Prominent Pair Land Blow
19% probability
If the pace-pressing horses — Spit Spot and Annie Agnew — press Lets Mingle harder than expected and the leader fades in the closing stages.
A slightly faster-than-anticipated tempo drains Lets Mingle's reserves up the home straight, leaving the prominent challengers — Spit Spot, Annie Agnew — to inherit the lead and fight it out. Horses who travel just off the pace with a turn of foot stand to benefit most in this shape.
Spit SpotAnnie AgnewFollow CharlieLowlands
C
Hold-Up Closers Swoop Late
13% probability
If the pace is genuinely honest enough to string the field out and the leaders empty, allowing Follow Charlie or Lowlands to come through late.
Follow Charlie's recent winning form and Lowlands' strong Good-ground record give these hold-up types a genuine chance if the race develops into a genuine test; both horses have won over similar trips on comparable going. However, the redistribution of several notional hold-up types to midfield positions reduces the likelihood of the race unfolding in a manner that truly rewards deep closers.
Follow CharlieLowlandsBogha BaisteGarrick Painter
D
Chaos Produces Surprise
6% probability
If fallers, jumping errors, or a badly-run race creates gaps that allow a lower-ranked or unexposed runner to emerge.
Hawkseye View (returned from a 149-day break but has a win on Good ground) or Bogha Baiste (consistent place-form, improved fitness possible) could sneak into contention if the race shape collapses. Kinbara Firstdraft, despite modest recent form, is a true hold-up type out of its natural position and is unlikely to benefit from a chaotic shape.
Lets Mingle is uncontested up front — watch whether Gregor Walkingshaw (10lb claimer) sets a genuinely sustainable or dangerously slow tempo, as either extreme could dramatically reshape who benefits.
WATCH
Follow Charlie and Lowlands are genuine hold-up horses whose chances hinge entirely on the pace being honest enough to close — if Lets Mingle crawls, both are likely to find themselves with too much ground to make up in the short Perth straight.
WATCH
Garrick Painter, Kinbara Firstdraft, and Tigress Lilly are all true hold-up types crowded out of their natural position; watch for any of them getting boxed in or lacking room on the final bend as they try to manoeuvre from a midfield slot that is not their instinctive starting point.
NOTE
Spit Spot and Hawkseye View both carry absence flags (57 and 149 days respectively) — watch the pre-race market for any meaningful support that might signal stable confidence after their breaks.
NOTE
Trainer Noel Kelly's 14-day strike rate of 0/14 for Garrick Painter is a sharp negative — watch whether the market reflects inside knowledge to the contrary or simply confirms the stat.
4:50 — Auto Services Perth Sales And Rentals Handicap Hurdle Race
3m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
Burgundy Man to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Burgundy Man led, as the map showed.
Down Around won at 2.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Burgundy Man
Prominent · 2
Down AroundSauce Of Life
Midfield · 3
TheirshegoesLe Grand VertC'Mon So
Hold Up · 2
Midnight MoonshineDalileo
Burgundy Man is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no serious challenger for the lead in a 3m Perth hurdle on Good ground, he will bowl along at a comfortable, self-regulated tempo from the outset. Down Around and Sauce Of Life will press forward into prominent positions directly behind him, creating a small, settled lead group rather than a contested gallop. This field contains more hold-up horses than the race shape can naturally accommodate — Theirshegoes, Le Grand Vert, and C'Mon So are genuine hold-up types but are mapped to midfield because the rear is overcrowded with closers; they are unlikely to get the wide, clean passage late that their style ideally requires, with Le Grand Vert and Theirshegoes the most experienced at this trip and the likeliest to find cover efficiently. A sustainable, front-runner-controlled pace over 3m on Good ground at Perth strongly favours horses racing prominently who can track the pace and strike from 2-3 out, before the back-markers can wind up their challenge.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Burgundy Man Controls, Prominent Pounce
62% probability
If Burgundy Man sets a steady, uncontested pace and the race develops as a controlled test of stamina from the front.
Burgundy Man dictates from the front on Good ground over 3m, with Down Around and Sauce Of Life sitting close enough to strike turning in; the steady pace means those racing prominently conserve energy and have first run on the closers. Down Around's record on Good going (2 wins, 5 places from 15 similar-going runs) and Gordon Elliott's in-form yard (2/35 in 14 days) make him the natural beneficiary of this shape, while Sauce Of Life's prominent style and recent win give him claims.
Down AroundSauce Of LifeDalileoTheirshegoes
B
Dalileo Makes Late Ground
20% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady enough to compress the finish and Dalileo, a proven winner over 24f on Good ground twice in succession, gets a clear run from the rear.
Dalileo's hold-up style and proven finishing kick (back-to-back wins on Good ground) mean a genuinely slow early pace can suit him if the race develops into a sprint finish; he will need a clear passage but has the class rating to warrant respect. Peter Kavanagh must position him well early to avoid being caught flat-footed in a compressed finish, but his two recent wins at 24f suggest the extra 2f here is not certain to help.
DalileoLe Grand VertTheirshegoesDown Around
C
Attrition Test, Stamina Paramount
12% probability
If Burgundy Man gradually increases tempo from halfway, turning the race into a sustained stamina test that strings the field out.
A stronger gallop set by Burgundy Man would ruthlessly expose any hold-up horses lacking the stamina for 3m on Good Perth ground, reducing the field to those with proven staying credentials; Down Around's 3m history and Dalileo's bold jumping record become critical. Midnight Moonshine, a genuine hold-up type with amateur jockey Miss Becky Smith, is likely to find this shape most damaging given his modest recent form and 34-day absence.
Down AroundDalileoSauce Of LifeBurgundy Man
D
Closers Swamp Tiring Leader
6% probability
If Burgundy Man's lack of a recent win (0 wins from 5 similar-going runs) sees him fade dramatically from 2 out, leaving the door open to hold-up horses.
In this unlikely shape, Burgundy Man's poor record (6-P9PP recent form) catches up with him and he capitulates suddenly in the closing stages, briefly creating a gap for hold-up horses; however, Theirshegoes, Le Grand Vert, and C'Mon So are all racing somewhat out of their natural role and carry reduced style-fit scores, making this scenario the least likely to fully materialise. Le Grand Vert has the strongest hold-up credentials of the trio and the most course-relevant win in his history.
Le Grand VertTheirshegoesC'Mon SoDalileo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Burgundy Man's stamina — watch whether he begins to shorten stride and capitulate between the second-last and last hurdle, as this is the moment Down Around and Sauce Of Life will make their winning moves.
WATCH
Le Grand Vert and Theirshegoes are genuine hold-up horses forced into midfield by a crowded rear; watch how Sean Quinlan and Joshua Thompson manage traffic from the halfway point, as a poor position could end their challenge before the home turn.
WATCH
Sauce Of Life is returning from 86 days off for Nicky Richards — watch his jumping fluency early, as a jumping error from a prominent position over 3m on Good ground could cost him any winning chance.
NOTE
Down Around has Gordon Elliott's backing (2/35 in 14 days) and is fresh off a 7-day turnaround — watch whether Sean Bowen sends him into second immediately after the first hurdle to ensure he is on the heels of Burgundy Man throughout.
NOTE
Dalileo has won twice in a row on Good going and is the form horse in the field at OR 100 — watch whether Peter Kavanagh can get him to travel comfortably in the first half of the race, as a strong finish depends entirely on a trouble-free passage off the final bend.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.