Archive›Plumpton · 20 September 2026

Plumpton

20 September 2026 · 7 races

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2:08 — Dominic Hill Accountants & Thorne Civil Engineers Mares' Handicap Hurdle Race

2m · Good · HCAP · 3 runners

Siorai likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Galeforcechopper led; the map had Siorai in front.

Getarose won at 2.38 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Siorai

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

GaleforcechopperGetarose

Siorai is expected to race prominently given the yard and Paul O'Brien's forward tendencies, though it has led in only one of its last five runs and is not a confirmed front-runner. Getarose and Galeforcechopper are both hold-up types who will be ridden to come from behind. This three-runner field offers no genuine pace pressure: Siorai will likely be allowed to set a sustainable tempo without being attacked, while the two hold-up horses wait for their opportunity. Hold-up runners have shown a strong record at Plumpton over 2m on good going, winning at rates well above market expectation, and the absence of a hard-pressing pace here hands them an advantage — they will have the time and space to launch a late challenge without being scrambled. The race shape favours closers coming late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses strike late

72% probability

If Siorai sets a steady pace and tires in the final furlong, allowing Getarose or Galeforcechopper to deliver a telling challenge.

Hold-up runners thrive when a lone pacemaker softens, and both have raced on good ground recently. The lack of genuine pressure on Siorai means it will be vulnerable to fresh legs at the business end.

GaleforcechopperGetaroseSiorai

Siorai holds on under pressure

18% probability

If Siorai quickens two furlongs out and neither hold-up horse can bridge the gap decisively.

Siorai's recent form includes two placings on good ground at this trip, and from a prominent position it can control the tempo and stay clear. The yard has a poor record in the last 14 days, limiting confidence, but the horse's class and jockey skill may suffice.

SioraiGaleforcechopperGetarose

Galeforcechopper outkicks the field

7% probability

If Galeforcechopper's recent return to action sharpens mid-race and it finds a gear the others cannot match in the final two furlongs.

Galeforcechopper won on good ground 16 days ago and is well-handicapped at 99; it carries the highest rating and shortest absence. However, it must recover from a slow start and time its run perfectly to catch Siorai before the line.

GaleforcechopperSioraiGetarose

Getarose surprises at odds

3% probability

If Getarose breaks well, settles handy, and benefits from a tactical mishap or faltering by Siorai or Galeforcechopper.

Getarose has won twice in its last five and handles good going, but has raced 169 days without a win and lacks the recent sharpness and form of Galeforcechopper. It is the most vulnerable of the hold-up types.

GetaroseSioraiGaleforcechopper

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Galeforcechopper's short break (16 days) and highest rating make it the most lethal hold-up threat if Siorai weakens.

WATCH

Siorai's 109-day absence and yard's poor recent form (0/1 in the last 14 days) suggest it may lack the fitness to hold off a determined late charge.

NOTE

The field's three-horse size and absence of genuine pace pressure will suit patient tactics; back-runners should get clear splits and a soft tempo to attack late.

2:38 — Henners Gallop To Grape-Ness Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Padel Whacker likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Raulin led; the map had Padel Whacker in front.

Arcturus Flame won at 1.29. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 2 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Padel Whacker

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

SangaraArcturus Flame

Hold Up · 2

RaulinPremier Tenor

Padel Whacker will make the running from the flag and set a sustainable pace; Raulin and Arcturus Flame are both hold-up types but lack the aggressive credentials to contest the lead early, leaving Padel Whacker clear in front with no meaningful pressure. Premier Tenor will race in the rear and wait for an opening, while Sangara is likely to settle in midfield without obvious tactical purpose. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and ground at Plumpton, winning at nearly 1.3 times the expected rate, and Padel Whacker's willingness to lead — combined with a small field and an absence of rival pace — means the race will be run to suit a horse dictating from the front. The field contains more hold-up types than can all secure their natural position at the rear, so Arcturus Flame will find itself crowded out of a proper hold-up spot and forced into an unnatural mid-division slot; this works in favour of the front-runner, as it reduces the threat of a co-ordinated late challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Padel Whacker leads home

71% probability

If Padel Whacker settles as the clear pace-setter and holds on through the final furlong.

Front-runners have earned 1.3 times their market expectancy over this trip and going. Padel Whacker's recent form shows it led last time and will control the race from the front with no pressure; a small field and lack of rival pace mean it can dictate the tempo and hold strong to the line.

Padel WhackerPremier TenorRaulinArcturus Flame

Closers rally late

16% probability

If Premier Tenor settles and produces a late run in the final half-mile to pick off the tiring front-runner.

Hold-up horses won at 1.4 times market odds here and Premier Tenor has placed twice on similar ground; however, the presence of Arcturus Flame — a true hold-up type mapped into midfield due to overcrowding — means the late-running profile is diluted by a horse out of its correct position.

Premier TenorRaulinArcturus FlamePadel Whacker

Prominent racer takes it

8% probability

If Arcturus Flame breaks clear mid-race and kicks for home before the hold-up brigade can mobilise.

Arcturus Flame is a genuine hold-up horse pushed into the midfield map by overcrowding, so it races out of role here; prominent racers underperform at this track and trip, and forcing a hold-up type into a false prominent slot is unlikely to deliver a win profile.

Arcturus FlameSangaraPremier TenorPadel Whacker

Sangara surprises

5% probability

If Sangara finds a gap in the pack and stakes a claim from midfield in the closing stages.

Sangara has no recent placing record at this distance on good ground and is racing in a maiden hurdle with limited form; it lacks the tactical advantage or the established record to overcome the front-runner's natural tempo advantage.

SangaraRaulinPremier TenorArcturus Flame

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Padel Whacker has a clear route to the lead and the pace data strongly favours front-runners here; if it settles into its stride it will be hard to pass and could make every yard.

WATCH

Arcturus Flame is a true hold-up horse mapped into midfield because the field holds too many rear-runners; it will be fighting for position mid-race rather than delivering the late kick it needs to win.

NOTE

Premier Tenor is 101 days away from the track — watch for any signs of ring rust in the preliminaries or a slow, hesitant start that could leave it too far back to profit.

NOTE

Raulin is capable but requires a slow pace to set up its finishing effort; if Padel Whacker controls tempo from the front, Raulin's own late run will be neutralised.

3:08 — Prestige Security Executive Protection Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

2m4½f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

Golden Garden likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Premier Fantasy led; the map had Golden Garden in front.

One Dimensional won at 3.75 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Golden Garden

Prominent · 1

Rhythm of Life

Midfield · 1

Thetype Istitle

Hold Up · 3

One DimensionalAkrrammPremier Fantasy

Golden Garden is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, having led in three of its last six runs including last time, and will set a sustainable pace from the outset with Thetype Istitle and Rhythm of Life racing prominently but unable to dislodge it. This creates a controlled tempo that favours horses able to track the leader or settle in touch, rather than one that pressures the pace or allows a winning late surge. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, and Golden Garden's position in the market and recent form give it the platform to dictate; hold-up horses, conversely, have underperformed here and face a headwind in a race with limited pace pressure. The field contains more genuine prominent types than can all secure that position—Thetype Istitle, a true prominent racer mapped to midfield, is unlikely to get its natural station and will race out of role as a result.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Golden Garden clears early

72% probability

If Golden Garden settles as the uncontested pace-setter and Rhythm of Life fades as it has in finishes past.

A lone leader controlling the tempo from the front creates a race ideally suited to front-runners, whose record here is strong. Golden Garden and any horse tracking it closely will benefit from a steady-to-strong tempo that suits their profile and denies closers any windfall.

Golden GardenRhythm of LifePremier FantasyThetype Istitle

Rhythm of Life presses and outkicks

15% probability

If Rhythm of Life tracks Golden Garden, quickens past it in the straight, and holds on despite a tendency to fade in finishes.

A prominent racer who can press the leader and sustain that effort into the closing stages would break the mould—Rhythm of Life has form to suggest it, though its record over this trip and its known finish weakness make this a lower-probability upset. Prominent racers have a neutral record here and rely on execution rather than profile advantage.

Rhythm of LifeThetype IstitleGolden GardenPremier Fantasy

Premier Fantasy closes from off the pace

8% probability

If the early pace is steady enough to allow a hold-up horse to recover in the final furlong.

Premier Fantasy has placed in recent starts and has the rating to win from behind, but hold-up horses have significantly underperformed at this trip and going, and without genuine pace pressure this scenario is unlikely. It would require Golden Garden to weaken and Premium Fantasy to find improvement it has not shown in similar contests.

Premier FantasyOne DimensionalGolden GardenRhythm of Life

Thetype Istitle forces through midfield

5% probability

If Thetype Istitle breaks out of its redistributed midfield position and imposes itself as a prominent racer despite the field having more pace types than it can accommodate.

Thetype Istitle is a genuine prominent type forced into a secondary position by the weight of pace in this field, and would need to abandon its comfort zone and race out of role to win—a material disadvantage. Its recent form and jumping ability are sound, but the race shape works against it here.

Thetype IstitleOne DimensionalGolden GardenPremier Fantasy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Golden Garden dictating the pace is the backbone of this race—any scenario where Rhythm of Life or Thetype Istitle get alongside it in the straight materially reshapes the outcome; watch whether the leader's tempo is strong enough to prevent either from making a decisive move.

WATCH

Thetype Istitle is a prominent racer forced to settle in the pack due to field composition; if it breaks ranks and forces through, it will be racing out of role and paying a price for it.

NOTE

Premier Fantasy is the only confirmed hold-up horse and will need patience and cover in the first two miles, but the going and trip historically disfavour its type; watch whether James King allows Rhythm of Life to make a premature challenge rather than wait.

NOTE

Akrramm is a complete absence of form and fitness; if it lines up, discount it on weight of form evidence alone.

3:38 — Mansell McTaggart Mane Event Handicap Hurdle Race

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Stage Show likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

French Diablo led; the map had Stage Show in front.

Jefe Triunfo won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stage Show

Prominent · 1

Mancero

Midfield · 2

Camino RocioFrench Diablo

Hold Up · 3

Jefe TriunfoPooroldmackleyGlorious Mist

Mancero and Stage Show are the only runners mapped to race prominently, but Stage Show is racing out of role — it has not led in its last six runs and is not a natural front-runner. Mancero, a David Pipe runner in form (1 win from 10 in 14 days), will set the pace from the front with Sean Bowen aboard, likely unchallenged early as the sole genuine pace-setter. The field will settle into a sustainable rhythm with Mancero controlling tempo; no credible pressuriser exists to make this a cavalry charge. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers, who have a proven edge over this trip and going. Hold-up horses carry structural disadvantage here: the data shows them winning at barely three-quarters the market expectation, and none in this field have the class to overcome tactical defeat.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Mancero dominates from front

74% probability

If Mancero settles and controls the race, he can quicken clear in the final furlong.

Mancero has won twice on similar ground and trip; his trainer fires at short notice and Bowen is an accomplished pilot on the Plumpton undulations. Front-runners have a strong record over 3m1f on Good going, and an uncontested pace-setter can translate that into a clear advantage.

ManceroFrench DiabloStage ShowCamino Rocio

Mancero fades; Stage Show exploits

13% probability

If Mancero tires late and Stage Show runs a rare prominent race well.

Stage Show has won twice on Good going over similar trips and has shown placings in four of its last five runs on this ground; it is not a natural pace-racer but jockey Ryder (claiming five) will push it forward early and it may hold on. However, this scenario demands Stage Show to race out of character and sustain effort—a low-percentage outcome.

Stage ShowFrench DiabloCamino RocioJefe Triunfo

French Diablo springs midfield

8% probability

If the early pace burns out and a midfield runner picks up at halfway.

French Diablo has won on Good going over 22f and holds three placings on the same ground; it will track the leaders in third or fourth and can strike if Mancero weakens. Midfield runners here perform to the market expectation, making this a neutral outcome for the profile; success relies on Mancero faltering earlier than expected.

French DiabloCamino RocioManceroStage Show

Hold-up horses late surge

5% probability

If the pace collapses entirely and closers get their moment in the final quarter.

Jefe Triunfo, Pooroldmackley and Glorious Mist would need an unusually slow race and tactical chaos to prosper, but hold-up horses here have won at barely 75% of the market expectation—the profile is inherently weak over this trip and ground. Glorious Mist fades badly in finishes and none of the hold-up crew have won on Good going in recent attempts.

Jefe TriunfoPooroldmackleyFrench DiabloCamino Rocio

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mancero is the clear pace dictator and must be the focal point of the betting; any significant market move against it is a warning sign that intelligent money knows something about its fitness or the jockey's tactics.

WATCH

Stage Show, despite being mapped to lead, is not a natural front-runner and will struggle to sustain pace pressure if Mancero presses early; back-seat status is more likely than a bold winning raid.

NOTE

French Diablo has only won once in seven runs on similar ground and will need the early pace to evaporate; monitor whether Mancero's early splits are as strong as expected.

WATCH

Hold-up runners (Jefe Triunfo, Pooroldmackley, Glorious Mist) are working against the profile data; Glorious Mist's fade-in-finish marker is particularly concerning over 3m1f, where stamina reserves matter most.

4:08 — Friends & Family Remembering Norman Sharpe Handicap Hurdle Race

2m · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Edelak to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Gower Prince led; the map had Edelak in front.

Eternal Angel won at 3.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Edelak

Prominent · 2

Eternal AngelNap Hand

Midfield · 1

Mojito des Mottes

Hold Up · 2

ZillowGower Prince

Edelak is a confirmed front-runner who has led in 4 of its last 6 runs and came home in front last time; it will set the pace from the off, likely unchallenged early on given no other runner has a strong lead-seeking record. Eternal Angel and Nap Hand both show prominent tendencies but are less habitual front-runners, so they will settle behind Edelak's unforced tempo. Hold-up horses have significantly outperformed market expectations over this 2m trip at Plumpton (1.38 times expected win rate), while front-runners have excelled too (1.3 times expected), but prominent racers have underperformed (0.91 times expected). This race will be won by either a front-runner who controls the framing or a horse happy to come from behind; midfield runners and true prominent racers racing out of tempo have poor historical support over this exact course and distance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Edelak dictates from flag

70% probability

If Edelak settles into a steady pace on the bridle and the field cannot close the gap entering the home straight.

Edelak's lead experience and recent form establish authority early; the 4yo and Dan Skelton's forward-riding yard have thrived in this role, and front-runners here win at 1.3 times the expected rate, rewarding sustained tempo control.

EdelakEternal AngelMojito des MottesNap Hand

Hold-up raider pounces late

22% probability

If one of the trailing runners (Zillow or Gower Prince) uses the steady early framing to their advantage and strikes decisively inside the final 200 yards.

Hold-up horses at Plumpton over 2m win at 1.38 times expected rate, and a genuinely back-to-front runner can take advantage of tiring legs if Edelak's pace merely irons out rather than demolishes the field; Zillow has recent placed form on good ground.

ZillowGower PrinceEternal AngelMojito des Mottes

Eternal Angel fights through

5% probability

If Eternal Angel overcomes the redistribution and uses its true front-running tendency to contest Edelak or even force past at the top of the hill.

Eternal Angel holds 2 wins and 5 places from 5 runs on good ground and is a confirmed front-runner; however, forcing past Edelak requires both horses to race out of sync and Eternal Angel to overcome its mapped-back placement, a tactical disadvantage in a race where the lead is already occupied.

Eternal AngelMojito des MottesEdelakNap Hand

Midfield compromise pays off

3% probability

If early pace falters and Mojito des Mottes or Nap Hand engineer a middle-ground position that avoids the pace duel but stays close enough to profit late.

Midfield runners win at only 0.93 times expected rate over this trip at Plumpton, and neither runner has the hold-up record nor the front-running momentum to convert a midfield slot into a winning trajectory here.

Mojito des MottesNap HandEdelakZillow

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Edelak is unmatched as a front-runner in this field; if left alone on the lead early, it is the main danger to all other profiles and will require a well-timed raid to be beaten.

WATCH

Eternal Angel and Nap Hand both carry some pace intent but are racing against position here—watch for either to steal ground early if Edelak breaks slowly, as either could quickly command a lead that swallows the field.

NOTE

Zillow has not won since returning to this venue but has sound placed form over good ground; if the early pace becomes pedestrian, back-markers may circle into contention inside the final furlong.

NOTE

Gower Prince's 8-year-old age and current form (2 recent placed finishes) suggest a seasoned operator capable of finding the line late if held in reserve, but must overcome the lack of typical hold-up horses to set up his raid.

4:38 — Only Horsepower Handicap Hurdle Race

2m4½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Captain Connor likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Khalk'eau Spigao and Farhh Echo and Captain Connor and Bread And Butter led, as the map showed.

Khalk'eau Spigao won at 3.75 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Captain Connor

Prominent · 2

A TickatickatimingAggagio

Midfield · 1

Anxious Moments

Hold Up · 4

Khalk'eau SpigaoPorridgeFarhh EchoBread And Butter

Captain Connor led last time and is the sole confirmed front-runner here, likely to dictate a sustainable pace from the flag without serious pressure from rivals. The field contains more genuine prominent types (Anxious Moments, Aggagio) than can all hold that position, meaning Captain Connor will occupy the lead unchallenged while others race out of their natural roles in midfield. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip and going, winning at nearly 18% and placing in over 38% of races, so a controlled lead from a fresh horse backed by a positive yard and rider is a scenario with genuine merit. The race will be decided by whether Captain Connor can sustain his advantage to the line or whether one of the better-handicapped hold-up types can close the gap late; horses held up have underperformed at this trip and going, so a front-running victory carries more structural support than a late challenge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Captain Connor holds on

64% probability

If the race is run at a steady gallop and Captain Connor's lead is not surrendered to late closers.

Captain Connor dictates from the break and manages the pace to his advantage, with his fresh 13-day absence and positive recent form suggesting readiness to control. Front-runners win decisively over this trip and going, and a lone leader facing no rival pace threat enjoys ideal conditions to convert that profile into victory.

Captain ConnorAggagioFarhh EchoKhalk'eau Spigao

Held-up horses rally late

18% probability

If the pace is allowed to quicken midway and Captain Connor tires in the closing stages.

Hold-up runners including Farhh Echo and Khalk'eau Spigao have each shown recent placed form and will settle tracking the leaders, then produce a late surge when the front-runner weakens. However, this profile has underperformed at this trip and going relative to what the market expects, making it a secondary outcome despite the class and placed records of the contenders.

Farhh EchoKhalk'eau SpigaoPorridgeBread And Butter

Prominent racer emerges

12% probability

If Aggagio or another midfield horse breaks through between the leaders and the closers in the final furlong.

One of the better-rated horses racing in the middle third breaks free and finds enough to hold off both the tiring front-runner and the late raid, capitalizing on a pure midfield attacking position. Prominent racers have matched their market expectations at this trip and going, providing a modest but real chance for horses with tactical flexibility.

AggagioA TickatickatimingCaptain ConnorFarhh Echo

Surprising outsider wins

6% probability

If Captain Connor is run off his feet early or a long absence proves problematic.

An unfancied runner like Porridge or Bread And Butter sneaks through in the chaos of a truly competitive race where no single profile dominates. This is a low-probability scenario in a race with a clear pace structure, but acknowledges the 8-runner field and the risk that the front-runner misjudges his effort.

PorridgeBread And ButterCaptain ConnorAggagio

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Captain Connor led last time and faces no obvious pace rival—if he settles in front as expected, he has structural advantage and the fitness advantage of a recent run over a field that includes 137-day and 127-day returners.

WATCH

Anxious Moments is a genuine prominent-type mapped to midfield; if it breaks through early to claim its natural position, it could disrupt the one-runner lead scenario, but races out of role here and cannot be relied upon for a clean turn-of-foot late.

WATCH

Farhh Echo carries a noted finish-fade issue and returns after only 2 days—minimal recovery time for a hold-up runner who would need freshness late; the profile is already working against it at this trip and going.

NOTE

Aggagio's OR 95 is the joint-second best in the race but form and placement record suggest a role as a dangerous disruptor rather than a winner; track how quickly it settles and whether it makes a midfield move or yields to the two leaders.

NOTE

Bread And Butter's 137-day absence is the longest in the field and combines with age (11) and form decline to make a true 50-1 proposition; monitor early pace behavior to see if a slow run brings it into contention late.

5:08 — Bob George Powered By Mansell Mctaggart Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m2f · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners

On The Fly likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Shane's Spirit and Company Charge and Missy Moises led; the map had On The Fly in front.

Shane's Spirit won at 1.80 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

On The Fly

Prominent · 1

Missy Moises

Midfield · 2

Kap In HandCompany Charge

Hold Up · 2

Shane's SpiritMerci Vieil Ami

On The Fly, a confirmed front-runner from its recent record, will likely set or share the pace early; Company Charge and Missy Moises are prominent types mapped to midfield because this field contains more pace-committed runners than can all hold forward positions. The pace will be steady rather than suicidal, given On The Fly's tendency to race positively without being pressed hard. Front-runners have won at a strong rate over this trip and ground (21.9% win rate, well above par), and hold-up horses have also prospered (16.3% win rate), while prominent racers have underperformed (14.8%). This race shape favours horses that can either dictate from the front or wait patiently off the pace; the genuine prominent types will struggle to find their natural rhythm because the field is top-heavy with pace, and those forced into holding roles will be racing out of character.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

On The Fly dictates clear

68% probability

If On The Fly breaks well and takes the field along at a manageable gallop from flag fall, unchallenged to the line.

A confirmed front-runner with two runs in recent form racing positively, On The Fly is best equipped to control the tempo over 2m2f on good ground where front-runners thrive. The absence of a genuine challenger willing to lead early leaves the field reactive rather than competitive.

On The FlyKap In HandShane's SpiritMerci Vieil Ami

Hold-up horse outruns front-runners

17% probability

If Shane's Spirit or Merci Vieil Ami settle off the pace and strike decisively in the closing furlong, exploiting the heavy demand on On The Fly.

Hold-up runners have fared disproportionately well at this trip and going, and both horses have the profile to wait. A tiring front-runner in a small field of six creates an ideal platform for a well-timed challenge.

Shane's SpiritMerci Vieil AmiOn The FlyMissy Moises

Prominent racer picks off leader

10% probability

If Missy Moises or Company Charge escape their tactical squeeze and run prominently, hunting On The Fly down before the line.

Prominent racers have underperformed at this course and trip, and both runners are racing out of their natural positions; neither is a natural hold-up type and the field congestion will compromise their ability to settle and deliver a sustained challenge.

Missy MoisesCompany ChargeOn The FlyShane's Spirit

Surprise maiden breakthrough

5% probability

If Kap In Hand, lightly raced and unproven over this trip, improves sharply and finds form in a weak field.

A runner with only one recorded outing in the past 14 days at this course adds significant uncertainty; the form is insufficient to project a strong profile, and the lack of recent racing data makes prediction speculative.

Kap In HandCompany ChargeMissy MoisesMerci Vieil Ami

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

On The Fly unchallenged in front — if the field lacks the pace or willingness to press early, the front-runner's rhythm will go uncontested and it will kick clear decisively inside the final furlong.

WATCH

Missy Moises' 93-day absence — long layoff on good ground where its fading tendency is exposed; monitor the parade-ring walk for sharpness and expect it to drift out of contention inside the final two furlongs.

NOTE

Shane's Spirit's 149-day gap — the longest absence in the field; Mickey Bowen's hot form (3 wins in 15 days) signals readiness, but ring-rustiness could dull a hold-up strategy that depends on finding extra inside the final furlong.

KEY

Company Charge shadowing On The Fly — watch for tactical imprisonment early; if forced to race three-wide or sit blocked in the pack, the prominent runner loses its natural rhythm and falls away when separation is needed.

NOTE

Kap In Hand's tactical placement — with only one recorded outing, expect it to be ridden positively to gain experience; if it settles and travels on the bridle through the middle stages, it suggests David Bass has spotted a real live chance.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 September 2026.

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