Lead contested: Lisnamult Lad v What PathFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Quornofamonday led; the map had Lisnamult Lad and What Path in front.
Fountain House won at 2.38 — was held up, as the map had it.
5 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Lisnamult LadWhat Path
Prominent · 7
VanillierFakir d'OudairiesOlympic ManEscaria TenVital IslandI A ConnectBroken Ice
Midfield · 4
Gentleman De ReveVaurealGalon De VauzelleQuornofamonday
Hold Up · 6
The GofferCall The TuneBusseltonChemical EnergyThe Folkes TiaraFountain House
Lisnamult Lad and What Path are confirmed front-runners who will dispute the early lead in this competitive handicap chase. With both horses committed to setting the pace, they'll create an honest gallop from the outset, testing stamina over the extended 3m½f trip on good to soft ground. The strong early pace will stretch the field and set up the race for horses with proven staying power who can close late. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses and strong finishers who can benefit from the strong gallop and pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Early Gallop
55% probability
If Lisnamult Lad and What Path both commit to leading and maintain a solid pace throughout
The honest gallop will find out the pretenders and set up a tactical finish for horses with proven stamina who can stay the extended trip. Late-closing types like The Goffer, Chemical Energy and Fountain House will benefit from the strong pace scenario.
The GofferChemical EnergyFountain HouseBusselton
B
Moderate Pace Setup
25% probability
If one of the front-runners compromises early or the pace becomes more sedate than expected
A steadier gallop allows prominent racers and those with tactical speed to stay closer and use their class advantage in the finish. This suits horses like Fakir d'Oudairies, Vanillier and Escaria Ten who can travel strongly.
Fakir d'OudairiesVanillierEscaria TenOlympic Man
C
Stamina Test Develops
15% probability
If the combination of testing ground and extended distance creates a true staying test
The race becomes a war of attrition where only the most genuine stayers survive, favouring horses with proven marathon credentials. Busselton's course form and Vital Island's previous success in this race become key assets.
BusseltonVital IslandThe Folkes TiaraCall The Tune
D
Front Runner Dominates
5% probability
If either Lisnamult Lad or What Path gets an uncontested lead and maintains it
The leader builds an unassailable advantage by controlling the tempo and has enough left to resist late challenges. This unlikely scenario suits whichever front-runner gets the clearest run.
Lisnamult LadWhat PathVaurealI A Connect
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lisnamult Lad and What Path could set unsustainable fractions if both commit fully to the lead from the start
WATCH
Fountain House faces a tactical test with amateur rider Mr R James having to judge the pace perfectly from the back
WATCH
Chemical Energy needs to be produced with one sustained run as he rarely wins if having to switch and change course
NOTE
Vanillier's early position will be crucial as he needs to settle better than in recent disappointing efforts
NOTE
The Goffer's jumping must be fluent throughout as any mistakes will compromise his strong-finishing style
3:05 — DAR Golf Handicap Chase
3m7½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 22 runners
Lord Lariat to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Uncle Pat won at 4.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
8 of 19 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Built By BallymoreBrucejackShanbally KidFortunate ManEvies Vladimir
Hold Up · 7
Ain't That A ShameBetter Times AheadJasmin De GrugyFolly MasterBorn BraverSa MajesteDuffle Coat
Lord Lariat will take them along at a steady gallop in this extended staying test, with no other confirmed front-runners to apply early pressure. The real tactical battle unfolds behind him where nine horses want prominent positions - Saint Davy, Intense Raffles, J'Arrive de L'Est, Uncle Pat, Union Station, Daily Present, Brucejack, Will Do, Brideswell Lad, Fishery Lane and Built By Ballymore creating a traffic jam turning for home. This congestion will inevitably compromise several prominent runners 2-3 furlongs out, allowing the patient hold-up horses like Fortunate Man, Jasmin De Grugy, and Better Times Ahead to pick them off. The race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can navigate the carnage and deliver late kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Heroes Strike
60% probability
If the prominent pack gets bogged down in traffic approaching the business end
The patient hold-up brigade find clear runs while prominent runners are shuffling for racing room. Jasmin De Grugy and Fortunate Man capitalize with their superior finishing kicks.
Jasmin De GrugyFortunate ManBetter Times AheadAin't That A Shame
B
Prominent Survivor Prevails
25% probability
If one of the prominent horses avoids the traffic and gets first run
Uncle Pat or J'Arrive de L'Est break clear of the congestion and hold off late challengers. The Mullins factor gives Uncle Pat the edge in a battle.
Uncle PatJ'Arrive de L'EstSaint DavyUnion Station
C
Pace Collapse Carnage
10% probability
If Lord Lariat sets too strong a pace and multiple prominent runners hit the wall
The race falls apart completely with tired horses everywhere creating maximum chaos. An outsider from the back like Sa Majeste sneaks through the wreckage.
Sa MajesteBorn BraverDuffle CoatEvies Vladimir
D
Front Runner Steals
5% probability
If Lord Lariat is allowed to dictate completely uncontested fractions
The veteran gets into a rhythm and proves impossible to peg back despite the finish being uphill. His 11-year-old guile trumps younger legs.
Lord LariatBrucejackFolly MasterBuilt By Ballymore
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch the prominent pack of 9-10 horses create absolute mayhem 2-3 furlongs out when racing room becomes premium
WATCH
Lord Lariat could steal this if the field allows him uncontested fractions and he gets into comfortable rhythm
NOTE
Jasmin De Grugy and Fortunate Man are the two hold-up horses with the class to capitalize on expected chaos
WATCH
Uncle Pat has Paul Townend aboard who could find a way through traffic where others fail
NOTE
Several 5lb and 7lb claimers on prominent horses could get badly hampered when the squeeze comes
3:45 — Palmerstown House Estate Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
3m½f · Good To Soft · LST · 23 runners
High Class Hero to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Beachcomber led; the map had High Class Hero in front.
Barry Lyndon won at 17.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.
10 of 20 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
High Class Hero
Prominent · 9
Your DarlingJoystickKinturk KalanisiBill BaxterUhavemeinstitchesBarry LyndonKish BankBeachcomberAs The Fella Says
Midfield · 6
No Time To WaitInvictus MachinBeckett RockIceberg TheoryLucky LyreenClonmeen
High Class Hero is the sole confirmed front runner in this 23-runner field and will get his own way out front without pace pressure. The prominent brigade including Your Darling, Bill Baxter, and Beachcomber will track behind but none are aggressive enough to challenge the early lead. This creates a sustainable tempo throughout the 3m½f trip, allowing High Class Hero to dictate fractions and kick clear when ready. This pace setup strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace without energy expenditure, while the large field of hold-up horses will face traffic problems and need luck in running.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
High Class Hero Dominates
45% probability
If High Class Hero maintains his jumping rhythm and stays sound
The Mullins runner controls every yard with no pressure and has enough left to repel late challenges. His class advantage tells when it matters most.
High Class HeroYour DarlingBill BaxterBeachcomber
B
Prominent Tracker Prevails
30% probability
If one of the prominent runners can sit close enough without racing keenly
Your Darling or Bill Baxter can track the leader's every move and pounce when High Class Hero's stamina wanes. The tactical advantage of cover without losing position proves decisive.
Your DarlingBill BaxterHigh Class HeroAs The Fella Says
C
Hold-Up Horse Gets Lucky
15% probability
If the pace collapses completely and traffic opens up perfectly
A classy hold-up performer like The Doyen Chief or Captain Cody gets the dream run through and benefits from others' energy expenditure. The race becomes a sprint finish where class tells.
The Doyen ChiefCaptain CodyArgento BoyPerceval Legallois
D
Staying Battle Emerges
10% probability
If High Class Hero comes back to the field in the final half-mile
Multiple horses converge for a grueling finish where stamina becomes paramount over tactics. The 3m½f trip finds out those not bred to stay.
Place De La Nation won at 11.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
WodhoohJade De Grugy
Prominent · 1
Place De La Nation
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Ill Raise A Glass
Jade De Grugy and Wodhooh will engage immediately from the flag, both natural front runners with similar aggressive styles. This creates an honest, testing gallop throughout the 2m4½f trip on yielding ground that will punish stamina reserves. Place De La Nation can track the pace battle from third while Ill Raise A Glass must overcome her hold-up style against a sustained tempo. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position close enough to strike but avoid the early burn-up between the two leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Leaders Burn Each Other
45% probability
If Jade De Grugy and Wodhooh engage in a prolonged speed duel from early stages
The relentless pace saps both front runners, allowing Place De La Nation to strike late having tracked the battle throughout. Her prominent style perfectly exploits the scenario where the pace-setters weaken.
Place De La NationIll Raise A GlassJade De GrugyWodhooh
B
Wodhooh Dominates Early
30% probability
If Wodhooh establishes clear early leadership and dictates terms without serious pressure
The superior mare controls the tempo and has enough left to repel all challenges, using her excellent going record and higher rating. Jade De Grugy becomes the main danger tracking behind.
WodhoohJade De GrugyPlace De La NationIll Raise A Glass
C
Jade De Grugy Controls
15% probability
If Jade De Grugy gets first run and forces Wodhooh to chase from behind
The Mullins mare uses her Grade 1 experience to lead at her own rhythm, making full use of Paul Townend's tactical awareness. The yielding ground plays to her recent good form.
Jade De GrugyWodhoohPlace De La NationIll Raise A Glass
D
Tactical Collapse
10% probability
If both leaders go too fast early and completely capitulate in the final furlong
The strong pace completely empties the front pair, creating a tactical race where Ill Raise A Glass's hold-up style finally pays dividends. Place De La Nation inherits the lead but gets caught close home.
Ill Raise A GlassPlace De La NationJade De GrugyWodhooh
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Wodhooh and Jade De Grugy engaging in unsustainable early pace that compromises both chances
WATCH
Place De La Nation getting caught behind horses if the pace collapses completely
NOTE
Ill Raise A Glass finding clear running room given her need for late gaps
WATCH
Ground deteriorating further from the stated yielding conditions
NOTE
Paul Townend's tactical decisions on Jade De Grugy given the pace scenario
4:55 — Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m · Good To Soft · G1 · 13 runners
5 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Saratoga won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Apolon De CharnieSaratogaMacho ManBartholomewMajolique
Midfield · 2
BertuteaMatin Midi Et Soir
Hold Up · 1
Charme De Faust
Proactif, Kai Lung, Madness d'Elle, One Horse Town and Moulin Labbe will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with multiple pace-setters likely to engage early. The presence of five confirmed front-runners guarantees a searching test of stamina over this sharp 2-mile trip on yielding ground. The early pace will be fierce before potentially fragmenting, creating opportunities for prominent racers and hold-up horses to strike in the final half-mile. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses who can capitalise on the expected pace collapse.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Finish
45% probability
If the early pace proves unsustainable with multiple leaders engaging
The front-runners will weaken dramatically in the final half-mile, allowing hold-up and prominent racers with tactical speed to sweep past. This scenario perfectly suits horses like Apolon De Charnie and Saratoga who can quicken off a strong gallop.
Apolon De CharnieSaratogaCharme De FaustBartholomew
B
Sustained Strong Gallop
30% probability
If one or two pace-setters establish control without early speed duel
The pace will be honest but not destructive, favouring those with the stamina to sustain their effort from prominent positions. Horses like Macho Man and Bartholomew who can sit close but not lead will benefit from this more measured tempo.
Macho ManBartholomewApolon De CharnieMajolique
C
Front Runner Survives
15% probability
If Proactif or One Horse Town gets an easy lead without serious challenge
A clever front-runner could steal a march by dictating moderate fractions before kicking clear. This would suit the most genuine pace-setters who have shown ability to win from the front previously.
ProactifOne Horse TownSaratogaApolon De Charnie
D
Messy Scramble
10% probability
If the large field and multiple pace angles create interference or a stop-start race
The race becomes a lottery with positioning crucial and late closers struggling to get clear runs. Lucky horses getting first run or avoiding trouble will prevail regardless of running style.
MajoliqueCharme De FaustMacho ManBartholomew
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Proactif and One Horse Town could engage in a destructive early speed duel that compromises both chances
WATCH
Kai Lung with headgear fitted may be more aggressive early than usual, potentially creating even stronger pace
NOTE
Apolon De Charnie's 50-day break means he may need the run despite his class advantage
WATCH
The yielding ground may play into the hands of hold-up horses more than the going suggests
NOTE
Bartholomew represents the smallest stable and could be overpriced given his tactical advantages
5:30 — Lawlor's Of Naas Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
2m4½f · Good To Soft · LST · 19 runners
Dani Donadoni to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
County Final and No Looking Back and Fierce Handay led; the map had Dani Donadoni in front.
Hello Neighbour won at 13.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Hello NeighbourIberico LordKopeck De MeeTripoli FlyerWendrockCounty Final
Dani Donadoni stands alone as the confirmed front-runner, likely to get an uncontested lead with sustainable fractions early on. However, the real issue develops behind him as 8 prominent runners (Storm Heart, Laurets d'Estruval, Jump Allen, Sony Bill, Kel Histoire, Fierce Handay, Thisistheway, One Big Boum) create a traffic jam in the crucial positions. This congestion will force several to race wider than ideal or get shuffled back when the pace quickens 2-3 furlongs out. The hold-up horses (Hello Neighbour, Tripoli Flyer, Iberico Lord, Wendrock) gain a significant tactical advantage from this set-up, able to pick their way through the inevitable gaps as the prominent brigade ties up.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses prosper
55% probability
If the prominent group engages too early and creates pace pressure from 3f out
The congested prominent runners will compromise each other's finishing kicks while the patient hold-up horses find racing room late. Hello Neighbour and Tripoli Flyer are perfectly positioned to exploit this scenario with their proven stamina.
Hello NeighbourTripoli FlyerIberico LordWendrock
B
Front-runner steals it
25% probability
If Dani Donadoni gets easy fractions and the prominent group fails to organize effectively
The leader capitalizes on the tactical confusion behind him, maintaining enough in reserve to hold off late challengers. His recent form suggests he has the class to make this pay.
Dani DonadoniStorm HeartLaurets d'EstruvalJump Allen
C
Prominent survivor emerges
12% probability
If one of the prominent runners can secure an ideal position without getting trapped
Storm Heart or Jump Allen could use their class advantage if they avoid the traffic, with their higher ratings telling in a tactical affair. The Mullins pair have the best jockey bookings to navigate trouble.
If the early pace is genuinely slow and the race becomes a sprint
County Final or Mojoe could capitalize with their proven turn of foot if the race sets up as a true staying test that becomes tactical. Both have winning form when races are run to suit.
County FinalMojoeNo Looking BackKopeck De Mee
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dani Donadoni must be monitored for pace judgment as Anna McGuinness needs to resist going too fast early when the field bunches behind
WATCH
Storm Heart, Jump Allen, and Laurets d'Estruval risk getting boxed in when the prominent group converges approaching the home turn
NOTE
Hello Neighbour and Tripoli Flyer for late moves as they should get ideal racing room when the pace quickens
WATCH
Any of the Mullins prominent runners (5 of them) struggling for position early as they cannot all get the ideal spot
NOTE
The pace from 3f out when the prominent group realizes they need to make their moves and potentially clash
6:05 — Sebden Steel Celebrating 30 Years In Business (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
2m · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 21 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:35 — 35th Running Of The "Have The Conversation - Say Yes To Organ Donation" Punchestown Charity Race
2m · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 25 runners
Thewaybackhome likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Thewaybackhome
Prominent · 7
Smackwater JackRiggsOogum BoogumLightkeeperIndulgingTouch The MoonSolar Falcon
Midfield · 9
MordorJungle CoveDark NoteButtermere RidgeBucaneer's SpiritWalking On GlassEthereal StarL'Un Deux TroisEyeeye
Hold Up · 8
Roxboro RiverPride Of PlaceMoonshine GirlKinbara FirstdraftIn Excelsis DeoGame And GloryCarnfunnockAnother Challenge
Thewaybackhome represents the only confirmed front-runner in this 25-runner charity race field and should be able to dictate terms unchallenged early. With most of the field holding up or positioned mid-pack, including the stronger-rated runners like Lightkeeper, In Excelsis Deo, and Mordor, the pace is likely to be steady rather than searching. The prominent runners Touch The Moon, Oogum Boogum, Smackwater Jack, Indulging, and Riggs will track behind but won't apply serious early pressure. This sets up perfectly for hold-up horses who can benefit from the inevitable bunching and scrambling in the straight when 20+ runners converge from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
65% probability
If the large field creates the expected steady pace with late convergence
The patient tactics of experienced hold-up performers will prove decisive as they sweep past tiring leaders. Horses like Lightkeeper, Mordor, and In Excelsis Deo can time their runs perfectly from the back.
LightkeeperMordorIn Excelsis DeoCarnfunnock
B
Prominent Tracking Works
20% probability
If Touch The Moon or other prominent runners can secure ideal positions just behind the leader
These tactical runners avoid the worst of the scrimmaging while staying close enough to strike. Touch The Moon's recent form and Riggs's track record make them natural beneficiaries.
Touch The MoonRiggsOogum BoogumIndulging
C
Front Runner Survives
10% probability
If Thewaybackhome gets soft fractions and the field fails to organize a serious challenge
The lone pace-setter could exploit the lack of early pressure to build an unassailable lead. However, Thewaybackhome's fading tendency makes this unlikely over 2m.
ThewaybackhomeSmackwater JackSolar FalconTouch The Moon
D
Pace Collapses Completely
5% probability
If even the prominent runners sit too far back and nobody goes with Thewaybackhome early
An extremely slow early tempo could favor the few horses willing to race closer to the pace. This would require multiple tactical errors from prominent runners.
Smackwater JackIndulgingOogum BoogumTouch The Moon
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Thewaybackhome's early fractions are crucial - if she goes too fast early she'll fade and if too slow the field bunches dangerously
WATCH
Touch The Moon needs to secure a prominent position early as the mid-division could become very congested with 25 runners
NOTE
Lightkeeper's fitness after 219 days off will determine if he can produce his best rating in the finish
WATCH
Any hold-up horse that gets too far back risks being caught in traffic with such a large field converging late
NOTE
The inside rail positions could prove advantageous given the likely steady pace and late charge scenario
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.