2:30

Archive›Punchestown · 29 April 2026

Punchestown

29 April 2026 · 8 races

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2:30 — Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle
2m3½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 28 runners
4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Radiator Springs and Ryan's Son led; the map had Hitak and Minella Supreme and Kamino Bello and Claude in front.

Jacovec Cavern won at 34.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

9 of 24 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4
HitakMinella SupremeKamino BelloClaude
Prominent · 11
Straight JohnThanksforthehelpLong BranchCloonainraRyan's SonMinella PostKatie DanielsKalanisi FlashMi Lucky CailinJacovec CavernEl Champo
Midfield · 5
GarrybelloFalcon EightBetter TimesAurea FortunaMoon Mission
Hold Up · 8
Sir AllenAguellidSopelanaMiss ManzorGod Of ThunderToll StoneRadiator SpringsJolie Jewel
Minella Supreme, Hitak, Kamino Bello and Claude will ensure a strong gallop from the outset, with the former trio particularly keen early leaders who rarely settle. With 28 runners and multiple confirmed front-runners, this will be run at a searching pace that will test stamina reserves over the extended 2m3½f trip. The relentless tempo will suit hold-up horses like Radiator Springs, Aguellid and Sir Allen who can pick up the pieces, while prominent racers may struggle to sustain their position. This pace scenario strongly favours patient hold-up performers who can deliver late kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Strong Pace Collapse
60% probability
If the multiple front-runners engage in a speed duel through the middle stages
The searching gallop will find out the stamina-light runners, setting up a finish dominated by closers who have conserved energy. Hold-up horses with proven staying power will sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong.
Radiator SpringsAguellidSir AllenMiss Manzor
B
Tactical Battle
25% probability
If the pace leaders show restraint and settle into a more measured rhythm
The race becomes more tactical with prominent racers able to maintain their positions, creating a more conventional finish where class and current form prevail. Those with tactical speed from mid-pack positions will be ideally placed.
ThanksforthehelpStraight JohnLong BranchKatie Daniels
C
Front Runner Survives
12% probability
If one of the pace-setters gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning in
A single front-runner breaks free from the pack while the others battle behind, maintaining enough of a margin to hold off late challengers. Early positioning becomes crucial with those tracking the leader best placed.
Minella SupremeKamino BelloCloonainraRyan's Son
D
Stamina Test Grind
3% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong throughout but no horse can quicken decisively
The race becomes a test of pure stamina where the most battle-hardened stayers prevail through sheer determination rather than tactical positioning. Those with proven form at longer distances will outlast classier but less robust rivals.
HitakBetter TimesAurea FortunaLong Branch

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHHitakRPR115Minella Supremep · RPR123Kamino BelloRPR123Claudet · RPR125Straight Johnt · RPR126Thanksforthehelptb · RPR123Long Branchp · RPR128Cloonainrap · RPR128Ryan's Sonh · RPR120Minella PostRPR124Katie Danielstp · RPR129Kalanisi Flashtp · RPR124Mi Lucky CailinRPR125Jacovec Cavernp · RPR126El Champop · RPR123Garrybellot · RPR127Falcon Eightp · RPR125Better TimesRPR121Aurea Fortunat · RPR125Moon MissionRPR122Sir AllenRPR124Aguellidh · RPR118Sopelanatp · RPR122Miss ManzorRPR119God Of Thundertp · RPR119Toll StoneRPR124Radiator SpringsRPR123Jolie Jewelh · RPR1235. Hitak6. Minella Supreme7. Kamino Bello8. Claude9. Straight John10. Thanksforthehelp11. Long Branch12. Cloonainra13. Ryan's Son14. Minella Post15. Katie Daniels16. Kalanisi Flash17. Mi Lucky Cailin18. Jacovec Cavern19. El Champo20. Garrybello21. Falcon Eight22. Better Times23. Aurea Fortuna24. Moon Mission3. Sir Allen2. Aguellid25. Sopelana4. Miss Manzor26. God Of Thunder27. Toll Stone1. Radiator Springs28. Jolie Jewel
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Minella Supreme and Hitak could set unsustainable fractions if they lead together, creating a pace collapse
WATCH
Radiator Springs needs the expected strong pace to develop or his hold-up style becomes less effective
NOTE
Ryan's Son wears a hood for the first time on handicap debut and could show significant improvement
WATCH
Multiple runners returning from long absences including Falcon Eight (430d) and Minella Post (450d) face fitness questions
NOTE
Katie Daniels showed dramatic improvement in tongue-tie last time and retains the headgear for this assignment
3:05 — Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Hurdle Series Final
2m3½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 15 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Raise You Up won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3
L' EvangelisteRaise You UpDunleer Crystal
Prominent · 6
Vitorio PielSimply NaturalLos BlancoGrey JudeIfallgoeswellDe Jour En Jour
Midfield · 2
Strange CurrencyGreen Angel
Hold Up · 4
Eagle's QuestThe First TurnAll Night RevivalGreen Chef
L'Evangeliste, Raise You Up, and Dunleer Crystal will force a strong early gallop over this stamina-sapping 2m3½f trip on yielding ground. With 6 horses wanting prominent positions (Los Blanco, Grey Jude, Green Angel, Vitorio Piel, Ifallgoeswell, Simply Natural), congestion is inevitable approaching the business end. The relentless pace combined with the testing conditions will stretch the field and expose stamina limitations. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay out of trouble early and finish with one sustained run when the pace collapses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Pace Collapse Finish
55% probability
If the three front-runners maintain their aggressive gallop through halfway
The strong early pace will take its toll on yielding ground, setting up perfectly for closers who avoided the early traffic. Eagle's Quest and All Night Revival can time their runs to perfection as the prominent brigade weakens.
Eagle's QuestAll Night RevivalThe First TurnGreen Chef
B
Prominent Horse Survives
25% probability
If one of the well-positioned runners can avoid the early traffic jam
Simply Natural or Vitorio Piel could find a clear path and have enough left to resist late challengers after getting first run on the leaders. Their class ratings suggest they can handle the pace better than most.
Simply NaturalVitorio PielGrey JudeLos Blanco
C
Front Runner Dominates
12% probability
If L'Evangeliste or Raise You Up can dictate terms without serious pressure
The leader could steal enough of a march to hold off challengers, particularly if the prominent horses get involved in scrimmaging behind. L'Evangeliste's Galway win suggests he can make all when allowed to.
L'EvangelisteRaise You UpDunleer CrystalStrange Currency
D
Maiden Surprise
8% probability
If the pace is even stronger than expected and ruins the fancied runners
The extreme gallop could level the playing field, allowing a lightly-raced improver like The First Turn to capitalise on superior fitness. Chaos in the betting favourites opens the door for outsiders.
The First TurnGreen AngelDe Jour En JourStrange Currency

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHL' EvangelisteRPR131Raise You UpRPR133Dunleer CrystalRPR127Vitorio PielRPR138Simply NaturalRPR133Los Blancot · RPR126Grey JudeRPR131Ifallgoeswellp · RPR126De Jour En JourRPR128Strange CurrencyRPR130Green Angelt · RPR120Eagle's QuestRPR131The First Turnt · RPR114All Night Reviv…RPR123Green ChefRPR1095. L' Evangeliste6. Raise You Up7. Dunleer Crystal8. Vitorio Piel9. Simply Natural10. Los Blanco11. Grey Jude12. Ifallgoeswell13. De Jour En Jour14. Strange Currency15. Green Angel1. Eagle's Quest3. The First Turn2. All Night Revival4. Green Chef
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Grey Jude and Simply Natural could get shuffled back in the early prominent congestion and lose vital positioning
WATCH
L'Evangeliste returning after 151 days off may need the run despite his obvious class advantage
NOTE
Eagle's Quest switching back from Flat runs could be sharper than ratings suggest
WATCH
Dunleer Crystal's front-running style puts him on collision course with two other confirmed leaders
NOTE
The First Turn represents yard having first runner, debut market support would be significant
3:40 — Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle
2m3½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 10 runners
Lead contested: Soir De Garde v Le Grand PeintureHISTORIC

How it ran

Minella Boss led; the map had Soir De Garde and Le Grand Peinture in front.

Quinta Do Lago won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Soir De GardeLe Grand Peinture
Prominent · 4
RiskawayBegorra ManQuinta Do LagoMister Pessimistic
Midfield · 1
Milan Forth
Hold Up · 3
BuntingMinella BossTinto De Verano
Soir De Garde and Le Grand Peinture will contest the early pace from the front, with Soir De Garde having shown good tactical speed at Tramore and Le Grand Peinture proven to make all when winning at Navan. Behind them, Riskaway, Begorra Man, Mister Pessimistic and Quinta Do Lago will all want prominent positions, creating significant congestion turning for home. The five hold-up horses (Bunting, Milan Forth, Tinto De Verano, Minella Boss) will need gaps in what could become a messy finish. This pace setup strongly favours the prominent runners who can secure good position early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Contested Pace Benefits Leaders
45% probability
If Soir De Garde and Le Grand Peinture go hard early and string out the field
The honest gallop will expose the weaker horses and give the front two a tactical advantage over the hold-up brigade. Soir De Garde has Paul Townend's tactical nous while Le Grand Peinture made all when winning for this yard.
Soir De GardeLe Grand PeintureMister PessimisticRiskaway
B
Prominent Traffic Chaos
30% probability
If the five prominent runners get bottled up behind the leaders turning in
The congestion will create a cavalry charge finish where the strongest stayer from the prominent group prevails. Riskaway and Begorra Man have shown they handle scrimmaging while Quinta Do Lago lacks the experience.
RiskawayBegorra ManMister PessimisticQuinta Do Lago
C
Hold-Up Horse Gets Clear Run
15% probability
If Bunting or Minella Boss find a clear passage up the inner or outer
The class of Bunting (OR 134) or recent winner Minella Boss could prove superior with racing room. Both need luck but have the ability to capitalize if the pace collapses.
BuntingMinella BossSoir De GardeRiskaway
D
Slow Early Messy Finish
10% probability
If both leaders go too slow and the field arrives en masse
A bunched finish where any of the top six could win in a sprint. The 5lb claimer on Le Grand Peinture or 7lb claimer on Milan Forth might prove decisive in a tight finish.
Quinta Do LagoMister PessimisticLe Grand PeintureMilan Forth

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHSoir De Gardeh · RPR133Le Grand Peintu…RPR131RiskawayRPR138Begorra ManRPR135Quinta Do Lagop · RPR129Mister Pessimis…t · RPR126Milan Fortht · RPR-BuntingRPR140Minella Bosst · RPR119Tinto De Veranoht · RPR1111. Soir De Garde2. Le Grand Peinture4. Riskaway5. Begorra Man6. Quinta Do Lago3. Mister Pessimistic7. Milan Forth8. Bunting9. Minella Boss10. Tinto De Verano
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Riskaway and Begorra Man could clash for the same prominent position behind the leaders
WATCH
Bunting needs significant pace collapse to be competitive given his hold-up style
NOTE
Quinta Do Lago's inexperience could tell if caught in traffic turning for home
WATCH
Le Grand Peinture's 66-day absence after being pulled up raises fitness concerns
KEY
Mister Pessimistic faces big step up from maiden company after long layoff
4:15 — Channor Real Estate Group Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
3m · Good To Soft · G1 · 14 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Espresso Milan led, as the map showed.

Le Frimeur won at 19.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3
SpinningayarnLove Me TenderEspresso Milan
Prominent · 6
Doctor SteinbergThe Passing WifeFruit De MerZanooshKazanskyFrankie John
Midfield · 3
Generous RiskLe FrimeurDream On Mick
Hold Up · 2
Hipop De LoireI Started A Joke
Spinningayarn, Love Me Tender, and Espresso Milan will ensure a strong gallop from the start, with all three proven front-runners likely to jostle for the lead early. The genuine pace will stretch the field over 3m, creating gaps and testing stamina reserves in the final mile. Six runners wanting prominent positions (including Doctor Steinberg, Kazansky, and The Passing Wife) will create congestion and traffic problems from the third-last hurdle. This strong pace and tactical pressure heavily favors hold-up horses with proven finishing kicks who can avoid the early scrimmaging.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Strong Pace Benefits Closers
55% probability
If the three front-runners maintain a genuine gallop throughout
The strong pace will stretch the field and set up perfectly for the two hold-up horses to deliver late challenges. I Started A Joke and Hipop De Loire can avoid early trouble and benefit from the stamina test.
I Started A JokeHipop De LoireThe Passing WifeDoctor Steinberg
B
Prominent Tracker Prevails
25% probability
If one of the high-class prominent runners can secure a clean passage
Doctor Steinberg or The Passing Wife can track the pace without getting caught in traffic and have the class to quicken when it matters. Their proven Grade 1 form gives them the edge in a grueling finish.
Doctor SteinbergThe Passing WifeKazanskyFruit De Mer
C
Front Runner Wires Field
12% probability
If Spinningayarn or Love Me Tender get an easy lead and controlled fractions
The leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back over this stamina-sapping trip. Their front-running style is perfectly suited to Punchestown's long straight.
SpinningayarnLove Me TenderEspresso MilanZanoosh
D
Pace Collapses Early
8% probability
If the three front-runners go off too fast and tie up badly
The race becomes a sprint finish favoring horses with turn of foot rather than stamina. This scenario would suit the more versatile prominent runners who can quicken late.
ZanooshGenerous RiskDream On MickLe Frimeur

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHSpinningayarnRPR142Love Me TenderRPR146Espresso MilanRPR139Doctor Steinbergh · RPR153The Passing WifeRPR149Fruit De MerRPR149Zanoosht · RPR153KazanskyRPR145Frankie JohnRPR143Generous RiskRPR134Le FrimeurRPR132Dream On MickRPR119Hipop De Loirep · RPR138I Started A Jokep · RPR1425. Spinningayarn6. Love Me Tender7. Espresso Milan4. Doctor Steinberg3. The Passing Wife8. Fruit De Mer9. Zanoosh10. Kazansky11. Frankie John12. Generous Risk13. Le Frimeur14. Dream On Mick2. Hipop De Loire1. I Started A Joke
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Spinningayarn and Love Me Tender must be monitored early as both may over-race if disputing the lead together
WATCH
The prominent brigade of Kazansky, Doctor Steinberg and The Passing Wife could create a traffic jam approaching the third-last hurdle
NOTE
I Started A Joke needs Ryan's Gap and the back straight to be run at genuine pace to set up his finishing kick
NOTE
Hipop De Loire's jumping must be watched closely given his two recent pull-ups over hurdles
KEY
Zanoosh faces her biggest test yet in this grade and the 7lb weight advantage may not be enough against these rivals
4:50 — Race & Stay At Punchestown Champion I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 1)
2m½f · Good To Soft · G1 · 10 runners
6 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Of Land And Sea led, as the map showed.

With Nolimit won at 15.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 6
Love Sign d'AunouDromardBoycetownThe WagerThe Irish AvatarOf Land And Sea
Prominent · 1
With Nolimit
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 3
The Mourne RamblerLow KickBarnahash Prince
Boycetown, The Wager, Dromard, The Irish Avatar, Love Sign d'Aunou and Of Land And Sea will all want to be handy early, creating a fierce gallop from the start. With six confirmed front runners in a 10-horse field, the pace will be relentless and stamina-sapping over this testing 2m½f trip on yielding ground. The strong early gallop will stretch the field and set up a tactical finish where those who conserve energy early can strike late. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and those with proven stamina reserves who can benefit from the inevitable pace collapse.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Strong Pace Collapse
65% probability
If the six front runners go too fast early and weaken significantly in the final half-mile
The relentless gallop will set up perfectly for the three hold-up horses who can time their runs to perfection as the leaders tire. Barnahash Prince, The Mourne Rambler and Low Kick are ideally positioned to exploit the pace scenario.
The Mourne RamblerBarnahash PrinceLow KickWith Nolimit
B
Tactical Battle
20% probability
If the front runners moderate the pace slightly and several survive to fight out the finish
A more measured gallop allows some pace-setters to retain enough energy for a sustained battle, but still favours those with tactical speed. The Mullins duo of The Wager and Love Sign d'Aunou have the class to dictate terms.
The WagerLove Sign d'AunouThe Mourne RamblerWith Nolimit
C
Front Runner Survives
10% probability
If one pace-setter gets an uncontested lead while others fall away early
Dromard or Boycetown could steal a march if the other front runners cancel each other out in the early exchanges. The winner would need exceptional stamina to resist the late closers on this testing ground.
DromardBoycetownThe Irish AvatarThe Mourne Rambler
D
Pace Compromise Chaos
5% probability
If the early pace is moderate but quickens dramatically late creating a sprint finish
An unexpectedly tactical affair would suit those with the best turn of foot, though this seems unlikely given the number of confirmed front runners. With Nolimit's prominent style could be ideal in this scenario.
With NolimitThe WagerLove Sign d'AunouLow Kick

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHLove Sign d'Aun…RPR131DromardRPR130Boycetownt · RPR129The WagerRPR128The Irish AvatarRPR126Of Land And Seah · RPR119With NolimitRPR130The Mourne Ramb…RPR132Low KickRPR131Barnahash PrinceRPR1175. Love Sign d'Aunou6. Dromard7. Boycetown8. The Wager9. The Irish Avatar10. Of Land And Sea4. With Nolimit1. The Mourne Rambler3. Low Kick2. Barnahash Prince
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
If Boycetown and Love Sign d'Aunou both go forward aggressively early, they could set suicidal fractions that rule both out
WATCH
The Mourne Rambler needs a strong pace to be effective so watch if the front runners surprisingly go steady early
NOTE
Dromard's 53-day layoff combined with debut run fitness questions make him vulnerable despite Mullins support
WATCH
With Nolimit could be caught in no-man's land if positioned prominently when the pace turns into a sprint
NOTE
Low Kick's 66-day break means his fitness must be taken on trust despite Gordon Elliott's preparation skills
5:25 — Colm Quinn BMW Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
2m4½f · Good To Soft · G3 · 14 runners
Where's My Jet to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nouvotic led; the map had Where's My Jet in front.

Nouvotic won at 8.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Where's My Jet
Prominent · 6
Jesse EvansClassic GetawayRiaanNouvoticKilbarry SaintMagic McColgan
Midfield · 3
Conyers HillMidnight It IsDreal Deal
Hold Up · 4
Down Memory LaneDee CapoKing AlexanderKaria Des Blaises
Where's My Jet is the sole confirmed front runner and will set his own tempo without pressure in the early stages. Six horses want prominent positions (Classic Getaway, Jesse Evans, Riaan, Kilbarry Saint, Nouvotic, Magic McColgan) creating significant congestion behind the leader from halfway onwards. The large field of hold-up horses (Dee Capo, Conyers Hill, Down Memory Lane, King Alexander, Dreal Deal, Karia Des Blaises, Midnight It Is) will be squeezed for racing room as the prominent pack compresses approaching two out. This race shape strongly favours front-running and early prominent tactics, as the traffic jam building behind will compromise late closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Uncontested Leader Dominates
45% probability
If Where's My Jet gets an easy lead and maintains jumping rhythm...
The lone pace-setter builds an unassailable advantage while the prominent brigade battle amongst themselves behind. Hold-up horses face an impossible task recovering lost ground through heavy traffic.
Where's My JetJesse EvansClassic GetawayRiaan
B
Prominent Traffic Chaos
30% probability
If the six prominent runners bunch up and create interference 2-3 out...
Kilbarry Saint or Nouvotic benefit from better positioning within the prominent pack while hold-up horses are trapped. The early leader gets caught by whoever navigates the congestion best.
Jesse EvansNouvoticKilbarry SaintClassic Getaway
C
Hold-Up Hero Finds Gap
15% probability
If the pace collapses completely and clear splits appear approaching the last...
One of the class hold-up horses (Dee Capo or King Alexander) threads through late with Kennedy or Townend's tactical nous proving decisive. The front division comes back to the field.
Dee CapoKing AlexanderDown Memory LaneKaria Des Blaises
D
Mid-Race Tempo Surge
10% probability
If Jesse Evans or Classic Getaway press Where's My Jet from early in back straight...
A genuine pace battle develops between the front three, setting up the race for a staying type who can quicken off the strong gallop. Late closers benefit from the increased tempo.
Conyers HillDreal DealDown Memory LaneMidnight It Is

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHWhere's My JetRPR154Jesse Evanst · RPR153Classic GetawayRPR154Riaanp · RPR157Nouvotich · RPR150Kilbarry Saintt · RPR158Magic McColganRPR151Conyers Hillh · RPR154Midnight It IsRPR153Dreal Dealt · RPR157Down Memory Lanep · RPR157Dee CapoRPR159King AlexanderRPR157Karia Des Blais…RPR1551. Where's My Jet2. Jesse Evans3. Classic Getaway4. Riaan5. Nouvotic6. Kilbarry Saint7. Magic McColgan8. Conyers Hill9. Midnight It Is10. Dreal Deal11. Down Memory Lane12. Dee Capo13. King Alexander14. Karia Des Blaises
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Where's My Jet's jumping under pressure - if he makes an error when challenged his 0-7 chase record suggests capitulation
WATCH
Traffic buildup behind leaders from 2 out - Jesse Evans and Classic Getaway most likely to cause interference
NOTE
Kennedy's route-finding on Dee Capo - champion jockey's tactical decisions crucial in heavy traffic
WATCH
Jesse Evans and Nouvotic both returning from long absences - watch for early signs of ring-rustiness
NOTE
Riaan's fitness after 210 days off - previously beat Jesse Evans but massive gap since last run
6:05 — Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup (Chase) (Grade 1)
3m1f · Good To Soft · G1 · 5 runners
Lead contested: Fact To File v Champ KielyHISTORIC

How it ran

Fact To File and Grangeclare West led, as the map showed.

Gaelic Warrior won at 1.83 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Fact To FileChamp Kiely
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 1
Grangeclare West
Hold Up · 2
Gaelic WarriorInothewayurthinkin
Fact To File and Champ Kiely will contest the early lead, establishing a genuine gallop over this extended trip at Punchestown. With both natural front-runners committed to racing prominently, they'll create an honest tempo that stretches through the first two miles. The hold-up horses Gaelic Warrior, Inothewayurthinkin and Grangeclare West will track this pace from mid-division before launching their challenges from the back of the last fence. This strong early gallop favours the hold-up merchants who can use their finishing kick when the pace-setters tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If Fact To File and Champ Kiely duel too hard early and compromise each other
The honest pace will perfectly set up the race for the closers who can time their runs to perfection. Gaelic Warrior's class and Inothewayurthinkin's Gold Cup winning ability make them prime beneficiaries of this likely scenario.
Gaelic WarriorInothewayurthinkinGrangeclare WestFact To File
B
Front Runner Survives
25% probability
If Fact To File gets an uncontested lead with Champ Kiely settling just behind
The 2025 Ryanair winner can dictate terms and kick clear before the hold-up horses get into gear. His proven stamina at this trip gives him the edge over Champ Kiely in a front-running battle.
Fact To FileChamp KielyGaelic WarriorGrangeclare West
C
Class Tells Late
15% probability
If the pace collapses early and becomes a sprint from the last
Gaelic Warrior's superior class rating of 176 and Paul Townend's timing become decisive factors. The John Durkan winner can overcome any tactical scenario when the race becomes about pure ability rather than pace dynamics.
Gaelic WarriorFact To FileInothewayurthinkinGrangeclare West
D
Cromwell Surprise Package
5% probability
If Inothewayurthinkin rediscovers his Cheltenham Gold Cup form at the right moment
The defending Gold Cup winner's fresh approach under Keith Donoghue could catch the Mullins-trained favourites napping. His hold-up style perfectly suits any pace scenario but requires a significant improvement on recent form.
InothewayurthinkinGrangeclare WestGaelic WarriorFact To File

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHFact To FileRPR181Champ KielyRPR164Grangeclare WestRPR172Gaelic Warriorht · RPR186Inothewayurthin…tp · RPR1784. Fact To File5. Champ Kiely3. Grangeclare West1. Gaelic Warrior2. Inothewayurthinkin
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Fact To File and Champ Kiely could destroy each other's chances if they engage in a prolonged speed duel from flagfall
WATCH
Gaelic Warrior needs Paul Townend to position him perfectly in the small field to time his challenge from the back of the last
NOTE
Inothewayurthinkin's early positioning will reveal Keith Donoghue's confidence levels in his mount's current form
WATCH
Grangeclare West could be the forgotten horse if the market focuses entirely on the Gaelic Warrior-Fact To File clash
NOTE
The small five-runner field means any early faller or refusal dramatically changes the tactical dynamic for the survivors
6:35 — Weatherbys General Stud Book Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race (Grade 3)
2m½f · Good To Soft · G3 · 16 runners
5 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Celestial Tune and Coole Cafe and Glens Anthem and Kiltybo and Goulmichette led, as the map showed.

Even Tho won at 4.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 5
KiltyboLatosca Du HouxGlens AnthemCelestial TuneTintara
Prominent · 4
Even ThoAl ArriveeSome PretenderBorn Believing
Midfield · 2
GoulmichetteSapphire Jewel
Hold Up · 5
Coole CafeBelladaballWonderful EverydayMaximillian LadyTreadonmydreams
Kiltybo, Latosca Du Houx, Glens Anthem and Tintara will ensure a proper gallop from the outset, with Celestial Tune also likely to track close. This quartet of confirmed front-runners in a 16-runner field guarantees a searching pace that will test stamina reserves over this extended trip on yielding ground. The strong early gallop will stretch the field and create gaps, with the pace likely to soften mid-race before intensifying again from the two-furlong pole. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and those who can produce sustained finishing kicks, as the early burn-up will set up a classic scenario for closers to sweep past tiring pace-setters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the pace-setters go too hard early and tie up in the final furlong
The strong gallop plays perfectly into the hands of Coole Cafe, Wonderful Everyday and Belladaball who can time their runs to perfection. These proven closers will have plenty to aim at as the front-runners weaken, with the yielding ground suiting their sustained finishing style.
Coole CafeWonderful EverydayBelladaballMaximillian Lady
B
Pace Collapse Suits Prominents
25% probability
If the front-runners go steady early before quickening from halfway
Born Believing and Even Tho can position prominently without over-racing and have the class to respond when the pace lifts. These horses avoid the early burn-up while staying close enough to strike when the race develops in earnest.
Even ThoBorn BelievingSome PretenderAl Arrivee
C
Front-Runner Survives Pressure
12% probability
If one pace-setter gets first run and holds on gamely
Latosca Du Houx or Glens Anthem could steal a march by dictating terms and having enough left to repel late challenges. The Mullins pair have the quality to sustain their effort when others come at them in the closing stages.
Latosca Du HouxGlens AnthemCelestial TuneKiltybo
D
Stamina Test Favours Stayers
8% probability
If the pace is truly searching throughout and becomes a war of attrition
Al Arrivee's Gold Cup bloodline and Maximillian Lady's proven stamina reserves could prove decisive in a grueling finish. These horses have the pedigree and experience to keep finding when others reach their limit.
Al ArriveeMaximillian LadySome PretenderGoulmichette

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHKiltyboRPR123Latosca Du HouxRPR122Glens AnthemRPR118Celestial Tunet · RPR113TintaraRPR109Even ThoRPR124Al ArriveeRPR113Some PretenderRPR112Born Believingt · RPR109Goulmichetteh · RPR105Sapphire JewelRPR93Coole Cafeh · RPR122Belladaballt · RPR120Wonderful Every…RPR118Maximillian Ladyh · RPR116Treadonmydreamst · RPR955. Kiltybo6. Latosca Du Houx7. Glens Anthem8. Celestial Tune9. Tintara10. Even Tho11. Al Arrivee12. Some Pretender13. Born Believing14. Goulmichette15. Sapphire Jewel1. Coole Cafe3. Belladaball2. Wonderful Everyday4. Maximillian Lady16. Treadonmydreams
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Kiltybo and Latosca Du Houx could set suicidal fractions if they engage in an early speed duel
WATCH
Coole Cafe's inexperience at this level could be exposed if the pace becomes stop-start rather than searching
WATCH
Al Arrivee's 269-day absence makes her fitness a major question mark despite her obvious class
NOTE
Even Tho's jumping background could prove an asset if the pace becomes messy and she needs to switch course
NOTE
Born Believing's perfect recent record makes her dangerous if she can secure an ideal tracking position

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 29 April 2026.

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Punchestown pace map, 29 April 2026 — PaceMap