2:30

Archive›Punchestown · 30 April 2026

Punchestown

30 April 2026 · 8 races

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2:30 — Specialist Group Novice Hurdle
2m½f · Good To Soft · NOV · 11 runners
4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ionian and Leader d'Allier led, as the map showed.

Beauvallon won at 29.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4
GameballLeader d'AllierNadia's BoyIonian
Prominent · 2
ColcannonFort Dino
Midfield · 2
Techno DavisAlwaysgoinhome
Hold Up · 3
Immediate EffectBeauvallonFriary Road
Gameball, Nadia's Boy, Leader d'Allier and Ionian will ensure a strong early gallop over this stamina-sapping trip at Punchestown. The presence of four confirmed front-runners guarantees a searching pace that will test stamina reserves, particularly on yielding ground that demands extra effort. The relentless tempo will stretch the field and expose any stamina limitations in the closing stages. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and hold-up horses with proven stamina who can benefit from the strong pace and pick up the pieces late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Strong Pace Benefits Closers
55% probability
If the four front-runners engage in a pace battle from the outset
The searching gallop will stretch stamina limits and set up the race for horses tracking in behind with finishing kicks. Hold-up horses like Immediate Effect and Beauvallon can exploit the pace collapse in the final furlong.
Immediate EffectBeauvallonColcannonFort Dino
B
Front Runner Survives
25% probability
If one of the pace-setters can dictate terms without excessive pressure
Gameball or Leader d'Allier could string out the field with sustained galloping and prove too strong for late challengers. Their class edge allows them to maintain the tempo while having enough left to resist closers.
GameballLeader d'AllierNadia's BoyColcannon
C
Pace Collapses Early
12% probability
If the front-runners go too hard too early and fold before the home turn
The race becomes a sprint finish where tactical speed matters more than stamina. Prominent racers like Colcannon who can avoid the early pace battle will have a crucial positional advantage.
ColcannonFort DinoIonianFriary Road
D
Novice Surprise Package
8% probability
If the newcomers Techno Davis or Alwaysgoinhome possess hidden ability
Lightly-raced horses could exploit the pace scenario with fresh legs and untapped potential. Their lack of exposure becomes an advantage when more exposed rivals hit their limitations.
Techno DavisAlwaysgoinhomeBeauvallonImmediate Effect

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHGameballh · RPR136Leader d'Alliert · RPR138Nadia's BoyRPR131IonianRPR123Colcannonh · RPR129Fort Dinot · RPR103Techno DavisRPR-AlwaysgoinhomeRPR-Immediate Effectp · RPR136BeauvallonRPR130Friary Roadt · RPR1165. Gameball6. Leader d'Allier7. Nadia's Boy8. Ionian3. Colcannon4. Fort Dino9. Techno Davis10. Alwaysgoinhome1. Immediate Effect2. Beauvallon11. Friary Road
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Gameball could be vulnerable to the stamina test if forced into early pace battle after long absence
WATCH
Watch for market support for Techno Davis or Alwaysgoinhome as unknown quantities with potential upside
NOTE
Leader d'Allier's stamina limitations may be exposed if the pace becomes too strong over this trip
WATCH
Immediate Effect needs the front-runners to go fast early to set up his hold-up running style
NOTE
Fort Dino's fitness after 334 days off will be crucial given the demanding pace scenario expected
3:05 — Close Brothers Irish EBF Mares Novice Hurdle (Listed Race)
2m½f · Good To Soft · LST · 6 runners
Lead contested: Future Prospect v AlliterationHISTORIC

How it ran

Adrienne and Alliteration led, as the map showed.

Adrienne won at 8.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Future ProspectAlliteration
Prominent · 2
Blue VelvetAdrienne
Midfield · 1
Catchabird
Hold Up · 1
Diamond Du Berlais
Future Prospect and Alliteration will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front-runners likely to set a genuine gallop from the start. This honest pace should stretch the small field and create opportunities for those who can sustain their effort. With Diamond Du Berlais the only confirmed hold-up horse in a race where the others will all be prominent or forward, the tempo should be searching enough to find out the stamina reserves. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers who can track the leaders and pounce, rather than those needing to make up significant ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Prominent Tracker Pounces
45% probability
If the two leaders set a solid but sustainable gallop
Blue Velvet or Adrienne can track the pace and kick clear when the front-runners tire in the final half-mile. The even tempo allows prominent racers to conserve energy for a decisive move.
Blue VelvetAdrienneCatchabirdFuture Prospect
B
Front Runner Dominates
30% probability
If Future Prospect settles better than previous efforts and controls the tempo
She can dictate terms from the front and has the class edge to repel challengers, especially with Townend's tactical nous. Her recent Cheltenham disappointment masks her true ability on a going day.
Future ProspectAlliterationBlue VelvetDiamond Du Berlais
C
Hold-Up Horse Strikes
15% probability
If the pace becomes truly searching and the leaders go too fast early
Diamond Du Berlais can use her proven stamina to sweep past tired horses in the closing stages. Her Cheltenham effort suggests she has the class to capitalize on a collapse up front.
Diamond Du BerlaisAdrienneBlue VelvetFuture Prospect
D
Outsider Benefits From Chaos
10% probability
If the front-runners engage in a speed duel that compromises both
Catchabird's recent winning form and lower weight could see her sneak through as the classier horses neutralize each other. Her proven stamina over this trip becomes crucial in a truly-run race.
CatchabirdAdrienneDiamond Du BerlaisBlue Velvet

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHFuture Prospecth · RPR142Alliterationtp · RPR128Blue VelvetRPR135AdrienneRPR131Catchabirdh · RPR121Diamond Du Berl…t · RPR1374. Future Prospect5. Alliteration1. Blue Velvet2. Adrienne3. Catchabird6. Diamond Du Berlais
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Future Prospect's settling - if she races keenly like previous efforts, she'll compromise her finish
WATCH
Blue Velvet's jumping and travel - any signs of the issues that led to her Fairyhouse pull-up
NOTE
How aggressively Alliteration goes early - her tactics will determine if this becomes a speed duel
WATCH
Diamond Du Berlais needs the pace to develop strongly to bring her stamina into play in small field
NOTE
Adrienne's position turning in - needs to be close enough to use her finishing kick from prominent position
3:40 — Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase
4m1f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 14 runners
Vanillier likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Desertmore House and Vital Island led; the map had Vanillier in front.

Busselton won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Vanillier
Prominent · 5
Outside The DoorVital IslandShannon RoyaleCavalry MasterThe Bosses Oscar
Midfield · 4
Lough Derg SpiritBodhisattvaDorans LawBenny The Duke
Hold Up · 4
Desertmore HouseThe GofferBusseltonWalking On Glass
Vanillier will establish an early lead from his prominent position, likely joined by The Bosses Oscar and Shannon Royale in the opening stages. This creates a steady, sustainable gallop rather than fierce early pace pressure, with the large field of hold-up horses including Desertmore House, The Goffer, and Busselton tracking behind. The cross-country format and 4m1f distance means the pace will build gradually through the middle sections before intensifying from the final mile. This measured tempo and extended trip clearly favours hold-up performers who can produce strong finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Hold-Up Horse Dominance
60% probability
If the pace stays steady and builds late as expected
The patient tactics suit the quality hold-up horses who can unleash finishing bursts over the final cross-country obstacles. Desertmore House, The Goffer, and Busselton all possess the class and tactical speed to strike decisively.
Desertmore HouseThe GofferBusseltonLough Derg Spirit
B
Prominent Tactical Win
25% probability
If Vanillier or The Bosses Oscar can dictate fractions and kick clear
The leader gets first run on the field and builds an unassailable advantage through superior cross-country jumping. This scenario rewards horses positioned to track the pace and respond to the initial move.
VanillierThe Bosses OscarOutside The DoorShannon Royale
C
Staying Battle Unfolds
12% probability
If the pace becomes truly testing and only genuine stayers prevail
The extended trip and demanding cross-country obstacles create a war of attrition where stamina trumps class. Horses with proven marathon credentials and recent race fitness come to the fore.
BodhisattvaDorans LawWalking On GlassBenny The Duke
D
Front Runner Wire-To-Wire
3% probability
If Vanillier gets loose on the lead unchallenged
The former Grand National runner uses his cross-country experience to build an insurmountable lead that the hold-up horses cannot bridge despite their late rally efforts.
VanillierCavalry MasterThe Bosses OscarShannon Royale

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHVanilliertb · RPR142Outside The DoorRPR135Vital Islandt · RPR134Shannon RoyaleRPR129Cavalry Mastertp · RPR121The Bosses Oscart · RPR119Lough Derg Spir…tp · RPR128Bodhisattvav · RPR127Dorans Lawp · RPR120Benny The DukeRPR109Desertmore Houset · RPR147The Goffertp · RPR143Busseltonb · RPR137Walking On GlassRPR1325. Vanillier6. Outside The Door7. Vital Island8. Shannon Royale9. Cavalry Master10. The Bosses Oscar4. Lough Derg Spirit11. Bodhisattva12. Dorans Law13. Benny The Duke1. Desertmore House2. The Goffer3. Busselton14. Walking On Glass
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Vanillier could steal this if allowed to dictate fractions unchallenged given his Grand National experience and front-running style
WATCH
The Goffer and Desertmore House represent the strongest hold-up threats if the pace sets up as expected
NOTE
Amateur jockeys on The Bosses Oscar, Lough Derg Spirit, Outside The Door, Dorans Law, and Benny The Duke create tactical uncertainties
WATCH
Long absences for Vital Island (139d), The Bosses Oscar (856d), Outside The Door (158d), and Walking On Glass (158d) raise fitness concerns
NOTE
Busselton's trainer change from Joseph O'Brien to E Bolger could impact his chances despite winning this race last year
4:15 — Conway Piling Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
2m7½f · Good To Soft · LST · 26 runners
Onewaywest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ballybow led; the map had Onewaywest in front.

Blue Mosque won at 7.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 24 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Onewaywest
Prominent · 10
HewickKarl Des TourellesDa Capo GloryGrann's BoyChampagne ChicDaydream NationBallybowOne Big BoumFillyoureyeMargaret's Legacy
Midfield · 7
Icare DesboisBridie's BeauBuachaillbochtThe Lovely ManSign From AboveChance Another OneBilly Lee Swagger
Hold Up · 8
The Big ClubmanMinella SixoDuke SilverBallystoneBallykinlarSeanieconBlue MosqueFad Eadrainn
Onewaywest is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start without pressure, setting a steady gallop that won't be testing early. With most runners adopting prominent or hold-up tactics, the pace will be moderate through the middle stages before quickening significantly from the back straight home. The lack of early pace pressure means stamina will be at a premium in the final half-mile as the field closes up. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and strong finishers who can produce their best work late when the tempo finally lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Weak Pace Favours Closers
45% probability
If Onewaywest sets an uncontested lead without early pressure from prominent runners
The moderate gallop will suit horses who need time to warm up and can deliver their best work in the final stages when others tire. Hold-up specialists like Seaniecon, The Big Clubman and Minella Sixo can time their challenges perfectly when the race finally develops.
SeanieconThe Big ClubmanMinella SixoBlue Mosque
B
Prominent Runners Take Over
30% probability
If Karl Des Tourelles, Daydream Nation or Hewick press Onewaywest earlier than expected
This creates a more honest gallop that will stretch the field and favour horses with tactical speed who can travel strongly in behind the leaders. The increased pace will find out the stamina-shy but reward those with proven form at this trip.
Daydream NationFillyoureyeKarl Des TourellesOne Big Boum
C
Strong Late Kick
15% probability
If the pace remains slow until the final 4 furlongs before a fierce acceleration
The race becomes a sprint finish where horses with the best turn of foot regardless of position will dominate. This scenario particularly suits those with recent good form who can quicken sharply off any pace.
Blue MosqueMinella SixoGrann's BoyDuke Silver
D
Front Runner Dominates
10% probability
If Onewaywest gets loose on the lead and maintains his advantage throughout
The lack of early pressure allows him to control the race completely and kick clear before the field can organise a challenge. His jumping right-handed tendency may not matter if he's clear enough approaching the final hurdle.
OnewaywestChampagne ChicDaydream NationBallystone

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHOnewaywestRPR146Hewickb · RPR153Karl Des Tourel…RPR149Da Capo Gloryp · RPR147Grann's Boyp · RPR148Champagne Chicp · RPR147Daydream Nationp · RPR148Ballybowb · RPR145One Big Boumb · RPR154FillyoureyeRPR153Margaret's Lega…RPR150Icare Desboistb · RPR148Bridie's Beaut · RPR150Buachaillbochttb · RPR151The Lovely Mant · RPR151Sign From Abovep · RPR150Chance Another …t · RPR145Billy Lee Swagg…b · RPR149The Big Clubmanp · RPR143Minella Sixov · RPR148Duke SilverRPR149BallystoneRPR147Ballykinlart · RPR152Seanieconp · RPR151Blue MosqueRPR153Fad Eadrainntp · RPR1535. Onewaywest6. Hewick7. Karl Des Tourelles8. Da Capo Glory9. Grann's Boy10. Champagne Chic11. Daydream Nation12. Ballybow13. One Big Boum14. Fillyoureye15. Margaret's Legacy16. Icare Desbois17. Bridie's Beau18. Buachaillbocht19. The Lovely Man20. Sign From Above21. Chance Another One22. Billy Lee Swagger2. The Big Clubman3. Minella Sixo23. Duke Silver24. Ballystone25. Ballykinlar1. Seaniecon4. Blue Mosque26. Fad Eadrainn
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Onewaywest's right-handed jumping tendency could cause serious interference if he drifts across the field approaching hurdles with 26 runners tightly packed
WATCH
Several horses carry significant layoff concerns including Ballystone (270 days) and Sign From Above (198 days) who may need the run badly
WATCH
Multiple 5lb claiming jockeys including Michael Kenneally on Da Capo Glory and Shane Fenelon on Ballykinlar could struggle with pace positioning in such a large field
NOTE
Blue Mosque and Buachaillbocht both have strong Punchestown form over this trip and could outrun their odds if the pace develops to suit hold-up horses
NOTE
The Willie Mullins-trained Fillyoureye was pulled up when racing too keenly last time but if settling better could be dangerous off this mark
4:50 — Frontline Security Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
2m½f · Good To Soft · LST · 20 runners
Lead contested: Escapeandevade v Dont Go YetHISTORIC

How it ran

Escapeandevade led, as the map showed.

Come Walk With Me won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

9 of 20 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
EscapeandevadeDont Go Yet
Prominent · 5
Western DiegoCoral RiverRelieved Of DutiesIndiana JonesBirdie Or Bust
Midfield · 7
Sky LordMcLaureyJalila MoriviereGolden JoyPetit TonnerreSeskin FlashTuckmill
Hold Up · 6
Ballysax HankCome Walk With MeRaffles Dolce VitaThe King Of PrsRelease The BeastPath d'Oroux
Dont Go Yet and Escapeandevade are confirmed front runners who will contest the early pace, with Coral River and Birdie Or Bust likely to press from prominent positions. This creates an honest gallop over 2m½f that should set up well for closers. The large field of 20 runners means the pace will be solid rather than frantic, but sufficient to stretch the field. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can find late acceleration, as the early pace battle will leave the leaders vulnerable to late challengers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Strong Pace Collapse
45% probability
If Dont Go Yet and Escapeandevade duel hard early and weaken significantly
The contested pace sets up perfectly for the talented hold-up horses who can find their kick late. Sky Lord and Release The Beast have the class to exploit tired leaders.
Release The BeastSky LordCome Walk With MeWestern Diego
B
Front Runner Survives
25% probability
If Escapeandevade gets first run and kicks clear approaching the last
His proven reliability and tactical speed allow him to hold off late challengers despite the pace. Coral River's prominent style keeps him in touch for the places.
EscapeandevadeCoral RiverRelieved Of DutiesCome Walk With Me
C
Prominent Tracker Strikes
20% probability
If Birdie Or Bust or Western Diego track the pace and time their move perfectly
They avoid the early pace battle but stay close enough to strike when the leaders tire. Western Diego's class tells despite recent inconsistency.
Western DiegoBirdie Or BustRelease The BeastRelieved Of Duties
D
Moderate Pace Benefits
10% probability
If the early pace is steadier than expected with less pressure on the leaders
This allows more horses to stay in contention longer, favouring those with tactical pace. The race becomes more tactical and less reliant on a strong finishing kick.
Dont Go YetPetit TonnerreBallysax HankMcLaurey

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHEscapeandevadep · RPR143Dont Go Yetp · RPR146Western Diegoh · RPR143Coral RiverRPR142Relieved Of Dut…t · RPR151Indiana Jonestp · RPR144Birdie Or Busttp · RPR143Sky Lordt · RPR143McLaureyt · RPR144Jalila Morivieret · RPR148Golden Joytv · RPR144Petit Tonnerrep · RPR148Seskin Flashh · RPR142Tuckmillb · RPR133Ballysax HankRPR141Come Walk With …RPR141Raffles Dolce V…RPR145The King Of Prstp · RPR135Release The Bea…ht · RPR144Path d'Orouxt · RPR1455. Escapeandevade6. Dont Go Yet4. Western Diego7. Coral River8. Relieved Of Duties9. Indiana Jones10. Birdie Or Bust2. Sky Lord11. McLaurey12. Jalila Moriviere13. Golden Joy14. Petit Tonnerre15. Seskin Flash16. Tuckmill17. Ballysax Hank3. Come Walk With Me18. Raffles Dolce Vita19. The King Of Prs1. Release The Beast20. Path d'Oroux
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Dont Go Yet and Escapeandevade setting unsustainable fractions that could collapse the front end completely
WATCH
Western Diego's jumping under pressure given his inconsistent chase record and 50-day break
NOTE
Sky Lord's response to first-time tongue-tie as he needs significant improvement
WATCH
Golden Joy's fitness after 87 days off and confidence following Leopardstown mistake
NOTE
Release The Beast and Come Walk With Me as the form horses who could benefit most from the pace setup
5:25 — Barberstown Castle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
2m½f · Good To Soft · G1 · 5 runners
Lead contested: Salvator Mundi v Pure SteelHISTORIC

How it ran

Irish Panther led; the map had Salvator Mundi and Pure Steel in front.

Salvator Mundi won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Salvator MundiPure Steel
Prominent · 2
Kopek Des BordesJacob's Ladder
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Irish Panther
Salvator Mundi and Pure Steel will contest the early lead in this small field, with both confirmed front runners likely to set a genuine gallop over this trip. Jacob's Ladder will track the pace prominently while Kopek Des Bordes settles in behind, leaving Irish Panther to come from the rear as the sole hold-up horse. The honest pace should set up perfectly for the prominent trackers and those with tactical speed. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can position close enough to strike but avoid the early pace battle between the two leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Prominent Tracker Prevails
45% probability
If Jacob's Ladder or Kopek Des Bordes get the perfect tracking position behind the pace duel
The dual between Salvator Mundi and Pure Steel will soften them up, allowing the prominent pair to strike with superior class and fitness. Jacob's Ladder's Grade 3 winning form and Kopek Des Bordes' Grade 1 credentials make them ideally suited to exploit this scenario.
Jacob's LadderKopek Des BordesIrish PantherSalvator Mundi
B
Front Runner Survives
30% probability
If Salvator Mundi gets an uncontested lead with Pure Steel struggling to match the pace
Without serious pace pressure, Salvator Mundi's class advantage and Harry Cobden's tactical nous will see him dictate throughout and prove too strong. His recent Grade 1 Aintree win suggests he has the quality to dominate this field when things fall right.
Salvator MundiPure SteelJacob's LadderKopek Des Bordes
C
Hold-Up Horse Benefits
15% probability
If the pace battle between the front two becomes too fierce and compromises the prominent runners
Irish Panther will benefit from a strongly-run race that brings his stamina into play, using his proven course form and hold-up style. His recent Naas beginner chase win shows he's effective when getting the right pace setup to close into.
Irish PantherKopek Des BordesJacob's LadderSalvator Mundi
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If both leaders go too hard early and come back to the field dramatically in the straight
Pure Steel's hit-and-miss form could see him fold quickly, bringing down Salvator Mundi with him and creating a messy finish. This opens the door for any of the other three to capitalize on the pace carnage, with fitness and tactical positioning becoming crucial.
Jacob's LadderIrish PantherKopek Des BordesPure Steel

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHSalvator Mundit · RPR157Pure SteelRPR148Kopek Des Bordesh · RPR169Jacob's Ladderp · RPR156Irish Pantherh · RPR1584. Salvator Mundi5. Pure Steel2. Kopek Des Bordes1. Jacob's Ladder3. Irish Panther
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Pure Steel's inconsistent form means he could either contest the pace strongly or fold quickly, dramatically affecting the race shape
WATCH
Kopek Des Bordes returning after 51 days off following his Punchestown disappointment - watch for market confidence and early movement
WATCH
Irish Panther needs the two leaders to go hard enough to set up his closing kick from the rear
NOTE
Jacob's Ladder's jumping under pressure will be key if he's to capitalize on his ideal prominent position
NOTE
Salvator Mundi's ability to handle Pure Steel's early challenge will determine if he can use his class advantage
6:05 — Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)
2m7½f · Good To Soft · G1 · 8 runners
Teahupoo likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kawaboomga led; the map had Teahupoo in front.

Bob Olinger won at 5.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Teahupoo
Prominent · 2
Honesty PolicyKawaboomga
Midfield · 3
Meet And GreetFranciscan RockJetara
Hold Up · 2
Bob OlingerJimmy Du Seuil
Teahupoo will lead with Kawaboomga, Honesty Policy, Meet And Greet, Jetara and Franciscan Rock tracking in the prominent positions, while Bob Olinger and Jimmy Du Seuil settle towards the rear. The pace will be genuine but sustainable given the extended trip and soft ground conditions, with no confirmed tearaway leader to force the issue early. This creates a scenario where the race builds gradually, allowing hold-up horses like Bob Olinger and Jimmy Du Seuil to use their superior finishing kicks in the final furlong. The race shape clearly favours horses with proven finishing pace who can sit off the tempo and strike late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Hold-Up Horse Victory
50% probability
If the pace stays controlled with Teahupoo setting a steady gallop
Bob Olinger and Jimmy Du Seuil can exploit their class advantage with devastating late runs that the prominent racers cannot match. The soft ground will sap the stamina of those racing keenly up front.
Bob OlingerJimmy Du SeuilTeahupooHonesty Policy
B
Prominent Racer Sustains
30% probability
If one of the prominent group can control their position without over-racing
Teahupoo or Honesty Policy can use their tactical speed to build an unassailable lead before the closers get into gear. Their proven stamina at the trip becomes decisive on testing ground.
TeahupooHonesty PolicyBob OlingerKawaboomga
C
Mullins One-Two Punch
12% probability
If both Kawaboomga and Jimmy Du Seuil produce career-best efforts
The stable's tactical advantage allows them to control the race tempo while Jimmy Du Seuil delivers a trademark Townend finish from the back. Kawaboomga's fresh legs after a light campaign prove crucial.
Jimmy Du SeuilKawaboomgaBob OlingerTeahupoo
D
Outsider Gate-Crashes
8% probability
If the principals fail to fire and the pace collapses completely
Meet And Greet or Jetara can exploit their lower weight expectations and catch the favourites napping with superior race fitness. The first-time cheekpieces on Meet And Greet provide the necessary spark.
Meet And GreetJetaraFranciscan RockHonesty Policy

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHTeahupoob · RPR170Honesty Policyt · RPR161KawaboomgaRPR154Meet And Greetp · RPR147Franciscan Rocktp · RPR152Jetarab · RPR154Bob OlingerRPR165Jimmy Du SeuilRPR1593. Teahupoo4. Honesty Policy5. Kawaboomga6. Meet And Greet7. Franciscan Rock8. Jetara1. Bob Olinger2. Jimmy Du Seuil
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Bob Olinger settling kindly in rear - if he's travelling smoothly turning in, he has the class to win this decisively
WATCH
Teahupoo's jumping and early enthusiasm - any mistakes or over-racing could drain his stamina reserves on testing ground
NOTE
Meet And Greet's response to first-time cheekpieces - the headgear change suggests connections expect significant improvement
WATCH
Jimmy Du Seuil's recovery from his recent fall - any hesitation at hurdles could compromise Townend's usual late charge
NOTE
The pace through the first mile - if it's genuinely strong, it will set up the hold-up horses perfectly for late strikes
6:35 — JP & M Doyle (C & G) INH Flat Race
2m½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 11 runners
4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Cowboy Casanova and Outofafrika led; the map had Quiryn and Bon Bon Fizz and Soul Asylum and Adaboy Mushy in front.

Adaboy Mushy won at 10.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4
QuirynBon Bon FizzSoul AsylumAdaboy Mushy
Prominent · 2
Our TriggerOutofafrika
Midfield · 2
It's Good To TalkCowboy Casanova
Hold Up · 3
Look MeBois d'AngosHighlander Addict
Quiryn, Bon Bon Fizz, Soul Asylum and Adaboy Mushy will all want to lead or sit prominent early, creating a strong gallop from the start. This sustained pace will stretch the field over 2m4f at Punchestown, particularly on yielding ground that will sap stamina reserves. The pace will be honest throughout with multiple leaders ensuring no let-up, before the race develops into a staying test in the final half-mile. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses with proven stamina who can finish strongly off a solid pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Strong Pace Favours Closers
60% probability
If the four identified pace-setters go off hard and maintain a strong gallop
The honest pace will set up perfectly for Look Me and Bois d'Angos who have proven finishing kicks and benefit from strong early pace. Both Willie Mullins runners excel when allowed to come from behind off a solid gallop.
Look MeBois d'AngosIt's Good To TalkOur Trigger
B
Pace Collapse Benefits Leaders
25% probability
If Quiryn and Adaboy Mushy steal a march by going slower than expected early
The front-runners will have too much left in the tank for the closers to peg back over the extended trip. Quiryn's Cheltenham form and Adaboy Mushy's front-running victory at Leopardstown make them dangerous if getting soft fractions.
QuirynAdaboy MushySoul AsylumBon Bon Fizz
C
Prominent Runners Strike Gold
10% probability
If Outofafrika and Our Trigger can secure ideal tracking positions behind the leaders
The prominent pair can strike when the pace-setters weaken but before the hold-up horses can get into contention. Our Trigger's breeding suggests he'll appreciate the step up in trip while Outofafrika has the class to capitalize.
Our TriggerOutofafrikaCowboy CasanovaHighlander Addict
D
Upset from Back Markers
5% probability
If the pace is truly breakneck and eliminates most of the fancied runners
Cowboy Casanova or It's Good To Talk could emerge from the pack as fresher finishers. Both have shown ability but would need a collapse ahead to feature prominently in this grade.
It's Good To TalkCowboy CasanovaHighlander AddictBois d'Angos

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHQuirynRPR126Bon Bon FizzRPR126Soul AsylumRPR125Adaboy Mushyh · RPR121Our TriggerRPR127OutofafrikaRPR123It's Good To Ta…RPR125Cowboy Casanovah · RPR107Look MeRPR128Bois d'AngosRPR120Highlander Addi…RPR1115. Quiryn6. Bon Bon Fizz7. Soul Asylum8. Adaboy Mushy4. Our Trigger9. Outofafrika3. It's Good To Talk10. Cowboy Casanova1. Look Me2. Bois d'Angos11. Highlander Addict
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Watch if Quiryn and Adaboy Mushy allow each other easy fractions early - they become very dangerous if getting soft lead
WATCH
Monitor how aggressively Bon Bon Fizz and Soul Asylum engage with the pace - both could set it up for others
NOTE
Look for Look Me to be held up in rear early by Townend - any prominent position would suggest tactical change
WATCH
Watch It's Good To Talk's jump-off given limited experience - needs clean start to utilize hold-up style effectively
NOTE
Observe ground conditions during card as yielding surface will emphasize stamina test for all runners

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 30 April 2026.

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Punchestown pace map, 30 April 2026 — PaceMap