1:15 — Ladbrokes 'Bet #5 Get #30 New Customer Offer' Novice Hurdle
2m½f · Good To Soft · NOV · 5 runners
Playtime likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Switch From Diesel led; the map had Playtime in front.
Switch From Diesel won at 1.30 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Playtime
Prominent · 1
Saporetti
Midfield · 1
The First Turn
Hold Up · 2
Switch From DieselMagico
Playtime emerges as the likely pacesetter with his prominent style, potentially joined by Saporetti early on, creating a measured tempo over the 2m½f trip. The small five-runner field means limited early pressure on the leaders, allowing for a sustainable gallop that could quicken significantly from the home turn. Switch From Diesel, Magico and The First Turn all carry hold-up styles, setting up a tactical battle in the closing stages. This race shape strongly favours horses with tactical speed and finishing kick over pure front-runners.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Late Kick Dominates
45% probability
If the pace proves genuine but not frantic, allowing hold-up horses to close
Switch From Diesel and Magico can unleash superior finishing speed in the final furlong, with their class telling over the moderate early pace. The tactical nature suits horses who can quicken off a solid tempo.
Switch From DieselMagicoPlaytimeSaporetti
B
Front Runner Survives
30% probability
If Playtime gets an easy lead and kicks clear from two out
The Gordon Elliott gelding proves hard to peg back despite his recent moderate form, benefiting from weak early pressure and stamina at the trip. Saporetti could emerge as the main danger if staying on.
PlaytimeSaporettiSwitch From DieselMagico
C
Magico Class Shows
15% probability
If the Mullins newcomer adapts quickly to the stronger pace of hurdling
The Flat winner's superior ability translates effectively to obstacles, with Willie Mullins' 28-day gap since his promising debut paying dividends. His hold-up style proves perfect for a slowly-run race that quickens late.
MagicoSwitch From DieselPlaytimeThe First Turn
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If both Playtime and Saporetti go too slow early, creating a sprint finish
The lack of early pace creates a messy, bunched finish where any runner could prevail through luck in running. The First Turn could benefit from his fresh trainer regime despite poor recent form.
The First TurnSaporettiSwitch From DieselPlaytime
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Playtime could get an uncontested lead if Saporetti doesn't go forward early, making him very hard to catch
WATCH
Switch From Diesel needs a strong pace to show his finishing kick - watch for early positioning behind the leaders
NOTE
Magico's jumping under pressure will be crucial given his limited hurdling experience in what could become a tactical affair
WATCH
The First Turn showed little when pulled up last time and needs to prove his Thurles bumper form wasn't a fluke
NOTE
Ground conditions favour hold-up horses if the going rides slower than advertised, particularly helping Switch From Diesel
Lead contested: Hashtag Pretender v Gaelic ArcHISTORIC
How it ran
Gaelic Arc led, as the map showed.
Gaelic Arc won at 17.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Hashtag PretenderGaelic Arc
Prominent · 3
Indiana JonesBirdie Or BustListentillitellyea
Midfield · 2
Stuntman SteveBe Fierce
Hold Up · 3
War CorrespondentPark ThatCrescent Moon
Hashtag Pretender and Gaelic Arc will set the early fractions, with Hashtag Pretender likely to take them along at a steady clip given his front-running style and recent consistency. The presence of two confirmed leaders ensures an honest gallop over the 2m trip, preventing any tactical crawl. Indiana Jones, Birdie Or Bust, and Listentillitellyea will track the pace in prominent positions, while the hold-up brigade including War Correspondent, Park That, Crescent Moon, Stuntman Steve, and Be Fierce will need the pace to develop strongly. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers and those with tactical speed, as the steady early pace will set up a searching finish that exposes the hold-up horses on good-to-yielding ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Trackers Prevail
45% probability
If the early leaders maintain a solid gallop throughout
The honest pace allows the prominent runners to stay in touch without over-racing, then pick off the tiring leaders in the final half-mile. This scenario perfectly suits horses that can travel kindly just off the pace.
Indiana JonesBirdie Or BustListentillitellyeaWar Correspondent
B
Front Runner Stays
25% probability
If Hashtag Pretender gets an easy lead and kicks clear
The front runner gets soft fractions early then finds extra when challenged, using his stamina and recent consistency to hold on. His 258-day break becomes irrelevant if he gets first run on his rivals.
Hashtag PretenderGaelic ArcIndiana JonesBirdie Or Bust
C
Late Charge Success
20% probability
If the early pace becomes overly strong and collapses
The prominent runners get drawn into a pace battle, allowing the patient hold-up horses to come from off the pace with late runs. War Correspondent's proven stamina and Park That's finishing kick become decisive.
War CorrespondentPark ThatBe FierceStuntman Steve
D
Pace Collapse Muddle
10% probability
If both leaders weaken dramatically turning for home
A messy finish develops where no clear pace scenario emerges, creating a scramble where any horse with a fraction of form left can win. The most progressive or freshest runner benefits from the tactical muddle.
Crescent MoonStuntman SteveIndiana JonesBe Fierce
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hashtag Pretender may not handle the step up in class after 258 days off despite his early promise
WATCH
War Correspondent and Park That need a strong pace to develop or their hold-up styles will be compromised
NOTE
Gaelic Arc's recent poor form suggests he may not last home if forced into an early pace battle
WATCH
Indiana Jones carries top weight despite his improved form and may find this company too hot
NOTE
Several hold-up horses including Crescent Moon and Stuntman Steve rely on others to set up the race correctly
2:25 — Ladbrokes 'Insure Your Acca On Football' Beginners Chase
3m½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Lead contested: Vicar Street v Mister FrostieHISTORIC
How it ran
Quantum Quest led; the map had Vicar Street and Mister Frostie in front.
Quantum Quest won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Vicar StreetMister Frostie
Prominent · 3
Quantum QuestKainsbourgFillyoureye
Midfield · 1
Game On
Hold Up · 2
Da Capo GloryWendrock
Vicar Street and Mister Frostie will contest the early lead, with Vicar Street the more reliable front-runner returning from a long break but with solid course form. Quantum Quest, Kainsbourg, Game On and Fillyoureye should track prominently behind this duo, creating a solid gallop over the extended trip. The two hold-up horses Da Capo Glory and Wendrock face a significant disadvantage as the pace-setters are likely to establish a controlled rhythm rather than go too fast early. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those who can travel well in the first half of the field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Front Running
45% probability
If Vicar Street settles into a steady rhythm and isn't pressured early by Mister Frostie.
The Mullins runner can dictate terms and kick clear approaching the last, while prominent trackers like Quantum Quest and Kainsbourg get first run at him.
Vicar StreetQuantum QuestKainsbourgGame On
B
Pace Duel Benefits Trackers
30% probability
If Vicar Street and Mister Frostie engage in a prolonged battle for the lead.
Both front-runners weaken in the closing stages, allowing the prominent runners with racing room to sweep past up the hill.
Quantum QuestKainsbourgGame OnFillyoureye
C
Hold-Up Horse Strikes
15% probability
If the early pace becomes genuinely strong and the field strings out over the extended distance.
Da Capo Glory can use his proven class advantage to pick off tired leaders, with Wendrock also benefiting from the pace collapse.
Da Capo GloryWendrockQuantum QuestVicar Street
D
Mister Frostie Wire-to-Wire
10% probability
If Mister Frostie gets an uncontested lead with Vicar Street settling behind horses.
The front-runner can build an unassailable advantage over fences, with his stamina lasting home despite modest ability.
Mister FrostieVicar StreetGame OnQuantum Quest
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Vicar Street needs monitoring for ring rustiness after 312 days off, any market weakness would be telling
WATCH
Da Capo Glory and Wendrock both need the pace to be strong early to have any chance from their hold-up styles
NOTE
Game On's jumping on return from his pulled-up chase debut will indicate whether the Kilbeggan problem has been resolved
NOTE
Quantum Quest's stamina for this extended trip is unproven, watch for any signs of stopping in the final half-mile
WATCH
Mister Frostie has pulled up twice in his last five starts, any jumping errors could see him pulled up again
3:00 — Ladbrokes 'Get More With Racing Bet Builder' Handicap Chase
3m½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Difficult Decision to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Difficult Decision led, as the map showed.
Le Grand Vert won at 19.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Difficult Decision
Prominent · 7
Sammy SmartNoble TalentAclassSecrecies Of StoneLe Grand VertPourquoi PoiReve Inoui
Midfield · 4
Seventy Eight TeamIl SilenzioA Year OlderMistyburn
Hold Up · 5
BodhisattvaJustabitofyoursTiffiny's GirlNorth Of NashvilleHascoeur Clermont
Difficult Decision will lead from the flag with only token early pressure, setting a sustainable gallop over this stamina test. The real danger develops from the 3rd fence out when seven prominent runners (Sammy Smart, Le Grand Vert, Aclass, Pourquoi Poi, Secrecies Of Stone, Reve Inoui, Seventy Eight Team) converge into traffic problems as the pace lifts. With hold-up horses like North Of Nashville, Bodhisattva, and Il Silenzio sweeping late, this race shape strongly favours patient, hold-up performers who can navigate around the prominent pack's inevitable congestion.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the prominent pack creates expected traffic problems from 3 out as predicted.
The patient horses sweep around the stalled leaders with North Of Nashville and Il Silenzio timing their challenges perfectly. Bodhisattva's stamina tells in the final furlong as the pace-affected leaders fade.
North Of NashvilleIl SilenzioBodhisattvaA Year Older
B
Front Two Survive
25% probability
If Difficult Decision gets uncontested lead and one prominent runner breaks clear early.
Difficult Decision's sustainable pace allows him to last home with either Sammy Smart or Aclass getting first run on the field. The lack of early pressure means the pace doesn't collapse completely for the hold-up horses.
Sammy SmartDifficult DecisionAclassNorth Of Nashville
C
Prominent Pack Chaos
12% probability
If the seven prominent runners engage in sustained pace battle from halfway.
The brutal gallop destroys most of the field but one prominent runner survives the carnage through superior fitness. Le Grand Vert or Pourquoi Poi could benefit from their recent chase experience over similar trips.
Le Grand VertPourquoi PoiReve InouiTiffiny's Girl
D
Outsider Ambush
8% probability
If the pace completely collapses and becomes a sprint finish.
The slow pace negates stamina advantages and allows a fresh horse returning from a break to strike. A Year Older's recent hurdles win or Il Silenzio's long absence could prove advantageous in a tactical finish.
A Year OlderIl SilenzioHascoeur ClermontMistyburn
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for traffic chaos from 3 out when Sammy Smart, Le Grand Vert, Aclass, Pourquoi Poi, Secrecies Of Stone, Reve Inoui and Seventy Eight Team all converge
WATCH
Monitor if Difficult Decision gets uncontested lead - could change entire complexion if he's not pressured early
NOTE
Check how aggressively North Of Nashville and Il Silenzio are positioned turning for home as race shape suits them perfectly
WATCH
Watch for any early pace pressure on Difficult Decision from Sammy Smart or Aclass which could collapse the field
NOTE
Observe if A Year Older shows any lingering effects from his fall 16 days ago when jumping the early fences
3:40 — Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div I)
2m½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 23 runners
Lucky Signal likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ferrybank led; the map had Lucky Signal in front.
Rosie's Wings won at 7.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
13 of 21 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Lucky Signal is the only confirmed front runner in this large field, likely to get an uncontested lead from the flag. Easter Bonnet and Cailin Deas will track in behind, but neither are aggressive early types, allowing Lucky Signal to dictate terms. With no pace pressure, this sets up as a tactical affair where the tempo will be modest until late acceleration. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish, as the lack of early pace will leave plenty in reserve for the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses dominate
65% probability
If Lucky Signal sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches turning in
The lack of early pace allows closers to conserve energy and produce sustained finishes. Horses with proven stamina reserves will overwhelm the leaders in the final furlong.
SuperficialRosie's WingsLudus MagnusFirebrand
B
Front group stays strong
20% probability
If Lucky Signal maintains a steady tempo but doesn't stop in the straight
Easter Bonnet and Cailin Deas benefit from tracking the pace without being bustled early. The prominent runners hold off late challengers through superior positioning.
Easter BonnetCailin DeasLucky SignalFirebrand
C
Pace collapses completely
10% probability
If Lucky Signal sets crawling fractions and the race becomes a sprint from the last
The race turns into a pure dash where tactical speed matters most. Prominent runners with a turn of foot exploit their forward positions.
Easter BonnetLucky SignalLudus MagnusSuperficial
D
Moderate pace suits all
5% probability
If Lucky Signal maintains even fractions that don't favour any particular style
The balanced tempo creates an open race where class rather than tactics decides. Multiple running styles remain competitive throughout.
Easter BonnetSuperficialCailin DeasRosie's Wings
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lucky Signal sets the pace but has faded dramatically in both recent starts, creating uncertainty about tempo control
WATCH
Easter Bonnet carries Mullins expectations as odds-on bumper winner but faces much tougher opposition over hurdles
NOTE
Superficial drops back from recent flat success to hurdles, watch market confidence for debut over obstacles
WATCH
Large field of 23 runners creates traffic concerns, particularly for hold-up horses needing clear runs
NOTE
Going reports show consistent Good to Yielding across the card, favouring horses with proven form on similar surfaces
4:20 — Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div II)
2m½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 24 runners
Lizzie Twigg likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Livio led; the map had Lizzie Twigg in front.
Lizzie Twigg won at 7.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
9 of 24 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lizzie Twigg
Prominent · 3
Alaskan ViewDorie MillerGood Thoughts
Midfield · 13
Jet To GloryAnam GealLivioMillion Dollar ManGlendaars SecretUndertheinfluenceMount MandelaAncient MythTiffany MaeCool As A CatCometothinkofitRattledelatchGlengarriff
Lizzie Twigg represents the only confirmed front runner in this 24-runner maiden hurdle field, giving her a significant tactical advantage to control the tempo from the outset. With most rivals adopting hold-up tactics and only a handful showing prominent tendencies like Dorie Miller and Good Thoughts, the pace is likely to be steady early before quickening from the home turn. The lack of early pace pressure should allow Lizzie Twigg to dictate proceedings uncontested, while the large field will create traffic problems for those held up at the rear. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can secure clean runs and avoid the inevitable trouble in running that will affect hold-up horses.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Front Runner Dominates
55% probability
If Lizzie Twigg gets an uncontested lead and maintains her advantage
The lack of early pace allows her to control the race completely, kicking clear when the field fans out and proving too strong for late closers. Her proven stamina and front-running style are perfectly suited to exploiting the tactical scenario.
Lizzie TwiggDorie MillerGood ThoughtsAlaskan View
B
Prominent Racer Strikes
25% probability
If one of the prominently-raced horses can track Lizzie Twigg and outstay her
The race unfolds as expected but a horse like Dorie Miller or Good Thoughts gets first run on the leader and stays on strongest up the hill. These horses benefit from avoiding the traffic while still having something left for a finish.
Good ThoughtsDorie MillerLizzie TwiggAlaskan View
C
Hold-Up Horse Overcomes
12% probability
If the pace collapses completely and allows a strong closer to weave through
Despite the large field, one of the better hold-up horses like Livio or Sestini finds racing room and unleashes a powerful late surge. This requires the early pace to be genuinely slow and the field to come back to them.
LivioSestiniLittle GingerCoolishael
D
Complete Traffic Chaos
8% probability
If multiple fallers or a pile-up creates carnage in the field
The large field and inexperienced horses lead to significant interference, allowing an outsider with a clear run to capitalize. This scenario benefits any horse that avoids trouble regardless of ability.
Navy WatersMount MandelaAncient MythScotty Joe
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lizzie Twigg could steal this if allowed uncontested front-running tactics in weak maiden company
WATCH
Traffic problems will be severe for hold-up horses like Livio and Sestini in this maximum field
NOTE
Good Thoughts and Dorie Miller as the only prominent runners could benefit from clean early positions
WATCH
Several runners including Anam Geal and Navy Waters are making hurdles debuts and may need the run
NOTE
The 63-day break for Lizzie Twigg could be a fitness concern despite her stamina advantages
4:55 — Ladbrokes 'Get More With Ladbucks' Maiden Hurdle
2m3½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 18 runners
Lead contested: Brother Walfrid v Frankie's FreebieHISTORIC
How it ran
Frankie's Freebie led, as the map showed.
Brother Walfrid won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
8 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Brother WalfridFrankie's Freebie
Prominent · 3
Angelo DundeePetit SecretBackinbusiness
Midfield · 8
Switched OnRosenborgPhoenix LightsOl ParsonMinella JackpotMarble RileLittle Big JohnVangaway
Hold Up · 5
Siofra BeagKilmond KnightRi RaForlioMisery Hill
Brother Walfrid and Frankie's Freebie will contest the early lead, with both having confirmed front-running tendencies that should produce an honest gallop from the start. The 18-runner field includes several prominent racers like Angelo Dundee, Backinbusiness and Petit Secret who will track the leaders, creating a solid tempo throughout. With two genuine pace-setters committed to going forward, the race will develop into a strong test of stamina over this 2m3½f trip. This honest pace strongly favours hold-up horses and prominent racers with finishing kicks, as the early leaders are likely to compromise each other.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Leaders Compromise Each Other
45% probability
If Brother Walfrid and Frankie's Freebie engage in a pace duel from the start.
The two front-runners will set unsustainable fractions that leave them vulnerable in the closing stages, allowing patient hold-up performers to pick up the pieces. This creates perfect conditions for horses with tactical speed who can finish strongly.
Angelo DundeePetit SecretForlioSwitched On
B
One Leader Dominates
25% probability
If Brother Walfrid or Frankie's Freebie gets an uncontested lead while the other struggles.
The surviving pace-setter can control the tempo and prove difficult to peg back, especially if they can dictate moderate fractions. Their front-running style becomes an asset rather than a liability in this scenario.
If the large field creates additional pressure on the pace-setters beyond just the two leaders.
Multiple prominent racers tracking the leaders will increase the overall tempo, ensuring a strongly-run race that suits patient hold-up horses. The combination of field size and multiple pace angles creates ideal conditions for late-running types.
Petit SecretAngelo DundeeForlioSwitched On
D
Tactical Battle Develops
10% probability
If the pace-setters are quickly joined or challenged by prominent racers like Angelo Dundee.
A multi-horse battle for the lead creates stop-start fractions that can favour horses with tactical pace who can quicken. This scenario reduces the advantage for pure hold-up horses who need a strong gallop.
Brother Walfrid and Frankie's Freebie could set unsustainable fractions if they engage in early speed duel
WATCH
Angelo Dundee has excellent course record and proven form advantage over most of these rivals
NOTE
Several unproven newcomers including Phoenix Lights and Rosenborg could outrun their odds if showing ability
WATCH
Ground appears slower than advertised based on going reports showing Good To Yielding throughout
NOTE
Petit Secret represents Willie Mullins returning from absence and could improve significantly on hurdles debut effort
5:30 — Castlestone Holiday Homes (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
2m½f · Good To Soft · DEFAULT · 20 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.