Archive›Redcar · 30 April 2026

Redcar

30 April 2026 · 6 races

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2:13 — Racing TV Club Day Here Today Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Ice Cube likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ice Cube led, as the map showed.

Ephron won at 6.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ice Cube

Prominent · 2

MohaassetLope Y Linda

Midfield · 3

FareenarWalk On Walk OnRocklaw

Hold Up · 3

Kameko FeverKarakula DancerEphron

Ice Cube represents the sole confirmed front runner in this small field, with Mohaasset and Lope Y Linda likely to press from prominent positions early. The sustainable pace created by this limited early speed should allow Ice Cube to dictate terms without excessive pressure through the middle stages. With six of nine runners holding up tactics (Fareenar, Kameko Fever, Rocklaw, Karakula Dancer, Walk On Walk On, Ephron), the race sets up as a tactical affair where the front division can control proceedings. This pace dynamic strongly favours prominent racers and those able to track the pace, as the hold-up brigade will face a wall of horses in a slowly-run race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Division Dominates

60% probability

If Ice Cube sets uncontested fractions and the pace stays moderate throughout

The lack of early pressure allows Ice Cube to kick clear turning for home while Mohaasset can track and challenge. The hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in a slowly-run race with limited gaps.

Ice CubeMohaassetLope Y LindaFareenar

Late Closer Springs

25% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling and bunches the field approaching the turn

The compressed field creates traffic problems but one hold-up horse finds a clear passage to exploit the sprint finish. Karakula Dancer's recent AW form suggests he can quicken when getting a true pace to aim at.

Karakula DancerKameko FeverIce CubeRocklaw

Sustained Pace Benefits

10% probability

If Mohaasset or Lope Y Linda force stronger early fractions than expected

The increased pace stretches the field and plays into the hands of horses with stamina reserves at this mile trip. Fareenar's staying-on third at this course and distance comes into play.

FareenarKameko FeverIce CubeWalk On Walk On

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If Ice Cube gets headed early and no one wants the lead

The lack of natural pace setters creates a stop-start race where any horse finding clear running can prevail. The tactical nature could suit an improver like Ephron despite his poor recent form.

EphronWalk On Walk OnMohaassetRocklaw

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ice Cube's jumping and early position - if he misses the break or gets headed early, the pace scenario collapses completely

WATCH

Karakula Dancer's turf adaptation - his strong AW form needs to translate to this surface for any chance

WATCH

Fareenar's fitness after 195 days off - any signs of rustiness will compromise her staying-on style

NOTE

Market support for Mohaasset and Ephron - both represent new connections and could indicate improvement

NOTE

The pace through the first quarter-mile - if it's genuinely strong, it transforms the race for closers

2:48 — Join Racing TV Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

7f · Good · NOV · 5 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

3:23 — Start Racing TV Free Trial Now Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Maldevious to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Prima Domina and Why Because led; the map had Maldevious in front.

Egotistical won at 2.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Maldevious

Prominent · 2

Why BecauseEgotistical

Midfield · 2

VivianaHighfield Jewel

Hold Up · 2

Confide In MePrima Domina

Maldevious will set the pace from flag to finish with minimal early pressure, creating a comfortable rhythm in the first half of this 6f contest. The prominent runners Egotistical and Why Because will track the leader but neither appears quick enough to apply serious early pressure. With only one confirmed front-runner and a small field, this sets up as a sustainable pace scenario where the tempo will only quicken in the final 2f. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and closers who can benefit from the modest early gallop and finish fastest when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Holds

45% probability

If Maldevious gets an easy lead and maintains kick

The front-runner controls the race unchallenged and has enough left to resist late closers on this sharp 6f trip. Eight-time maiden Maldevious finally capitalizes on ideal tactical conditions.

MaldeviousWhy BecauseEgotisticalConfide In Me

Closer Benefits Most

35% probability

If the pace stays modest throughout

Hold-up horses get maximum benefit from the slow early gallop and unleash superior finishing speed in the final furlong. Confide In Me and Prima Domina are best positioned to exploit this scenario.

Confide In MePrima DominaVivianaEgotistical

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Egotistical or Why Because improve positions early

A prominent runner moves closer to Maldevious approaching the turn and uses that forward position to strike in the final 1f. The pace becomes more honest but still allows tactical speed to dominate.

EgotisticalWhy BecauseMaldeviousConfide In Me

Unknown Quantity Surprise

8% probability

If Viviana shows significantly more than expected

The lightly-raced Johnston runner displays hidden ability and benefits from both the race shape and professional jockey McDonald. Charlie Johnston's 3-from-34 recent record makes this low probability.

VivianaConfide In MeWhy BecauseEgotistical

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Maldevious must be watched for early pace judgment - if she goes too fast early she will capitulate in the final furlong

WATCH

Confide In Me's position turning for home will be crucial given her hold-up style needs the race to develop properly

WATCH

McDonald's tactics on unknown Viviana could reveal Johnston stable confidence or lack thereof

NOTE

Why Because's early positioning will indicate if connections expect her to overcome the long absence

NOTE

Egotistical's ability to get closer to the pace than usual may determine if she can exploit this tactical setup

3:58 — Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

Soul Seeker to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Beerwah won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Soul Seeker

Prominent · 4

Miss RainbowZuffoloSanbonaDesert Champion

Midfield · 2

Kyber CrystalDoralee

Hold Up · 3

Mrs TrumpBeerwahSolar Biricz

Soul Seeker will lead from the gate with no serious opposition for the early pace, creating a sustainable tempo that won't stress the front end. Miss Rainbow, Kyber Crystal, Zuffolo, Sanbona, Desert Champion and Doralee will cluster in prominent positions creating significant traffic problems turning for home. The lack of early pressure means Soul Seeker can dictate fractions, while the prominent congestion will cause interference and blocked runs for the hold-up horses like Mrs Trump, Beerwah and Solar Biricz. This race shape clearly favours front runners and early prominent racers who can secure clean racing room before the cavalry charge begins.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Soul Seeker gets an easy lead and the prominent pack doesn't apply early pressure

Soul Seeker dictates comfortable fractions and kicks clear when the traffic jam develops behind. The lack of pace pressure allows the leader to save energy for a final effort while others are stuck in the pack.

Soul SeekerMiss RainbowKyber CrystalDoralee

Prominent Pace Duel

30% probability

If Miss Rainbow or Zuffolo press Soul Seeker early to force genuine fractions

The increased pace stretches the field and creates opportunities for hold-up horses with clean runs. Traffic reduces as horses begin to string out from the stronger gallop.

Mrs TrumpBeerwahSolar BiriczSanbona

Traffic Chaos Finale

15% probability

If the prominent sextet stays bunched turning for home with minimal early pace

Multiple horses hit the front simultaneously in a scrambling finish where the best-positioned prominent runner prevails. Clean passages become crucial as interference is widespread.

Miss RainbowDoraleeKyber CrystalDesert Champion

Hold-Up Hero Strikes

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and the field comes home in a bunch sprint

A patient hold-up horse with the best turn of foot capitalizes on the slow tempo. The race becomes purely about who has the strongest finishing kick.

Mrs TrumpBeerwahSolar BiriczSoul Seeker

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Soul Seeker being allowed uncontested fractions - if unopposed early he becomes extremely dangerous despite poor recent form

WATCH

Monitor the prominent pack of Miss Rainbow, Zuffolo, Sanbona and Desert Champion for early scrimmaging that could compromise their chances

WATCH

Watch Mrs Trump and Beerwah for market confidence given their hold-up styles need the race to develop favorably

NOTE

Check if Kyber Crystal shows early pace despite long absence - her reappearance record suggests she could be sharper than expected

NOTE

Watch Solar Biricz for improved effort under new trainer after disappointing recent debut run

4:30 — Racing TV Free Trial Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Fierce Fortitude v Thunder WonderHISTORIC

How it ran

Diderot and Raulin led; the map had Fierce Fortitude and Thunder Wonder in front.

Fierce Fortitude won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Fierce FortitudeThunder Wonder

Prominent · 1

Ammes

Midfield · 3

Austrian TheoryProject GeofinUrban Road

Hold Up · 3

James McHenryRaulinDiderot

Fierce Fortitude and Thunder Wonder will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front-runners having the pace to dominate the opening exchanges. This dual-pronged pace attack should create an honest gallop over the extended 1m2f trip, preventing any tactical dawdling. The strong pace will stretch the field and expose those who need cover, while setting up the race for closers with the stamina to capitalize. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish strongly off the guaranteed pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses capitalize

55% probability

If Fierce Fortitude and Thunder Wonder duel early and weaken

The honest pace will perfectly set up the race for the strong contingent of hold-up performers who can time their challenges. James McHenry, Diderot, and Urban Road all possess the tactical speed to strike late when the pace-setters tire.

James McHenryUrban RoadDiderotAustrian Theory

Front-runner survives pressure

25% probability

If Fierce Fortitude kicks clear turning in while Thunder Wonder weakens

Fierce Fortitude's recent C&D form and lighter weight could see him outlast his pace rival and hold off late challengers. His superior recent form gives him the edge over Thunder Wonder in any early battle.

Fierce FortitudeRaulinAmmesProject Geofin

Prominent tracker strikes

12% probability

If Ammes gets the perfect trip tracking the pace-setters

The prominent runner can benefit from the pace battle ahead while avoiding the worst of it, positioning perfectly to strike when the leaders weaken. Ammes has the class and tactical positioning to capitalize on a strong pace scenario.

AmmesAustrian TheoryJames McHenryFierce Fortitude

Thunder Wonder leads throughout

8% probability

If Thunder Wonder gets an uncontested lead with Fierce Fortitude settling behind

Without genuine pace pressure, the leader could dictate terms and prove hard to peg back despite recent poor form. This would require Fierce Fortitude to drop back, which seems unlikely given his natural pace.

Thunder WonderProject GeofinFierce FortitudeRaulin

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thunder Wonder could get uncontested lead if Fierce Fortitude doesn't go forward early, completely changing race dynamics

WATCH

James McHenry's draw and early positioning crucial given his hold-up style and need for clear running room

NOTE

Urban Road's starting gates behavior critical as slow-away would negate any pace advantage in small field

WATCH

Project Geofin's fitness after 154-day absence could see dramatic improvement or complete collapse

NOTE

Diderot's willingness to race after February refusal at Lingfield needs monitoring in preliminaries

5:02 — Watch Race Replays At racingtv.com Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Just A Gambler likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

King Of Berkshire led; the map had Just A Gambler in front.

King Of Berkshire won at 1.83 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Just A Gambler

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 3

Red RifleYorkies DreamFairydale

Hold Up · 2

Sudbury HillKing Of Berkshire

Just A Gambler is the only genuine early pace in this field and will likely get an uncontested lead from the gates. With King Of Berkshire, Sudbury Hill, Yorkies Dream, Fairydale and Red Rifle all preferring to settle off the pace, Just A Gambler can dictate terms throughout the 1m2f trip. This creates a tactical scenario where the lone leader faces minimal early pressure, allowing him to control fractions and potentially steal the race if the hold-up brigade leave their runs too late. The race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader closely, as the wall of hold-up horses may struggle to make up ground if Just A Gambler gets away with soft fractions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Just A Gambler gets soft early fractions with no pressure from the field

Just A Gambler controls the tempo completely and has enough left to resist the late challengers up the Redcar straight. The hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up in the final furlong.

Just A GamblerKing Of BerkshireSudbury Hill

Hold-Up Horse Swoops

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong or Just A Gambler weakens significantly in the final two furlongs

King Of Berkshire or Sudbury Hill time their runs perfectly to catch the tiring leader in the shadows of the post. The class and recent form of these hold-up specialists tells in a strongly-run race.

King Of BerkshireSudbury HillJust A GamblerYorkies Dream

Moderate Pace Suits All

15% probability

If Just A Gambler sets honest but not demanding fractions throughout the middle stages

The race becomes a genuine staying test where stamina and class prevail over tactics. Multiple horses arrive with chances in the final furlong creating a tight finish.

Sudbury HillKing Of BerkshireJust A GamblerFairydale

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If Just A Gambler goes very slowly early and the field bunches up approaching the home turn

The race becomes a sprint finish from the two-furlong pole with minimal early pace. Raw speed rather than stamina becomes the deciding factor in an unsatisfactory tactical affair.

Yorkies DreamRed RifleKing Of BerkshireJust A Gambler

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Just A Gambler's early positioning will be crucial - if he breaks smartly and gets an easy lead, he becomes very dangerous with soft fractions.

WATCH

King Of Berkshire's settling ability in the early stages, as any eagerness could compromise his devastating late kick shown at Yarmouth.

WATCH

Sudbury Hill's fitness level returning from 41 days off, particularly in the final furlong where his stamina reserves will be tested.

NOTE

The overall pace through the middle stages - if genuinely strong it plays to the hold-up horses, if modest it hands Just A Gambler a significant tactical edge.

NOTE

Fairydale's jumping from the gates after 215 days off, as a slow start would make her hold-up task virtually impossible from this position.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 30 April 2026.

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