Archive›Ripon · 17 May 2026

Ripon

17 May 2026 · 8 races

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2:17 — Anglo Stainless Supporting Yorkshire Wooden Spoon Apprentice Handicap

2m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

No More Bolero likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Scottish Dancer led; the map had No More Bolero in front.

Trojan Soldier won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

No More Bolero

Prominent · 1

Rupert The Prince

Midfield · 3

MarbuzetVaguely RoyalElemental Eye

Hold Up · 2

Scottish DancerTrojan Soldier

No More Bolero will dictate from the front with Rupert The Prince likely to race prominently in second, creating a sustainable but genuine gallop over this stamina-testing 2m trip. With only two natural pace-setters and five hold-up horses, the early fractions should be manageable before quickening from 4f out. The lack of pace pressure early means front-runners can conserve energy for a strong finish, while hold-up horses face the risk of the race not falling apart late. This shape clearly favours prominent racers and the early pace-setters who can control their own destiny.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If No More Bolero gets an uncontested lead and dictates fractions

The 7-year-old can use his tactical speed to quicken when it matters, making it hard for hold-up horses to close down in time. His recent Bath win and C&D second under these exact conditions make him perfectly suited to exploit this race shape.

No More BoleroRupert The PrinceMarbuzetScottish Dancer

Late Closer Strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow early allowing hold-up horses to close effectively

Marbuzet's proven course form and Scottish Dancer's front-running return to form give them the tactical speed to pounce when the race opens up. The stamina-laden nature of this contest could see hold-up horses with the best recent form surge late.

MarbuzetScottish DancerTrojan SoldierVaguely Royal

Prominent Tracker Wins

15% probability

If Rupert The Prince can stalk the pace perfectly and time his challenge

Despite his hurdle struggles this year, his three Flat wins last season all came at distances up to 2m with prominent tactics. A 13lb weight advantage and claimer's allowance make him dangerous if finding his old form.

Rupert The PrinceElemental EyeNo More BoleroMarbuzet

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If both pace-setters go too fast early and completely capitulate

The race would become a sitting duck for the best hold-up performer with tactical speed. Trojan Soldier's recent Southwell win in cheekpieces shows he has the ability when everything falls right.

Trojan SoldierVaguely RoyalElemental EyeMarbuzet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

No More Bolero's early position - if he gets an uncontested lead the race could be over before the turn

WATCH

Scottish Dancer's jumping from the front - any early mistakes or hesitation could compromise his prominent position

WATCH

Trojan Soldier's headgear - if the cheekpieces aren't applied it removes his key form angle

NOTE

Rupert The Prince's settling - needs to track the pace rather than fight for the lead to be effective

NOTE

The pace through the first mile - if too slow it opens the door for all the hold-up horses

2:47 — Paul Hammond Associates Celebrating Yorkshire Spoon EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 8 runners

Crimson Blaze likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Can Can Queen and Tricky Jenny and Crimson Blaze led, as the map showed.

The Can Can Queen won at 7.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Crimson Blaze

Prominent · 2

The Can Can QueenFern Clyde

Midfield · 4

Eevee StarBai TongSpirit Of MaryTricky Jenny

Hold Up · 1

Cheeky Chesca

Crimson Blaze will lead unchallenged from the gates with The Can Can Queen, Fern Clyde and Tricky Jenny settling prominently behind her. The early pace will be steady rather than fierce, allowing the field to remain compact through halfway. With limited early speed in the field, this sets up perfectly for horses that can quicken from prominent positions or those with a turn of foot from midfield. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed who can position close enough to strike.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Crimson Blaze gets an easy lead and finds her rhythm

She can dictate terms throughout and prove hard to peg back despite her recent disappointing efforts. The tactical advantage of controlling the pace from the front will outweigh any stamina concerns over this trip.

Crimson BlazeThe Can Can QueenFern ClydeBai Tong

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If one of the prominent runners can sit perfectly positioned behind Crimson Blaze

The Can Can Queen or Fern Clyde can use their tactical speed to challenge turning for home when the leader comes under pressure. Their racing experience gives them the edge over the lightly-raced runners.

The Can Can QueenFern ClydeBai TongCheeky Chesca

Lightly Raced Improver

15% probability

If the steady pace allows Eevee Star or Bai Tong to show their true ability

Either can make significant improvement from their debuts and benefit from the tactical race setup. The undemanding early gallop will help them settle and showcase any latent ability.

Eevee StarBai TongSpirit Of MaryCheeky Chesca

Hold-Up Horse Swoops

10% probability

If the pace becomes crawling and Cheeky Chesca gets the perfect run

She can use her hold-up style to devastating effect with a well-timed late challenge. The lack of early pace will compress the field and create opportunities for closing runners.

Cheeky ChescaSpirit Of MaryEevee StarTricky Jenny

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Crimson Blaze hanging left again under pressure could compromise her chance and affect others

WATCH

The Can Can Queen and Fern Clyde both need to be positioned close enough to strike when the pace lifts

NOTE

Bai Tong's market support will indicate connections' confidence after her disappointing debut effort

WATCH

Spirit Of Mary's tendency to fade means she needs to be produced late to have any chance

NOTE

Eevee Star's early positioning will reveal her preferred running style and tactical intentions

3:17 — Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap

1m2f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Popeye Doyle likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Popeye Doyle led, as the map showed.

Poet's Dawn won at 8.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Popeye Doyle

Prominent · 3

Spirit CatcherPoet's DawnTiberio Force

Midfield · 6

Skinny MalinkaThe Cookstown CafuDistinctionBay Dream BelieverOff SpinSpeechman

Hold Up · 4

FinlagganTwilight SafariEveryoneknowsadaveBearwith

Popeye Doyle and Poet's Dawn appear to be the only prominent runners, with Spirit Catcher also capable of taking a forward position early. The majority field is comprised of hold-up horses who need the race to develop, creating a scenario where the early leaders won't face genuine pressure through the opening stages. This will likely produce a moderate tempo that suits those who can track the pace and have a finishing kick. The abundance of hold-up horses and lack of genuine pace pressure strongly favours horses who can sit prominent or just off the lead, rather than those coming from the back of the field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Moderate Pace Suits Trackers

65% probability

If Popeye Doyle and Poet's Dawn set a steady tempo without pressure from behind.

The lack of early pace allows prominent runners and those tracking to position perfectly for a sustained finish. Hold-up horses from the rear struggle to make up the ground as the leaders haven't come back to them.

FinlagganBearwithPoet's DawnThe Cookstown Cafu

Strong Finish From Held-Up

20% probability

If the early pace is genuinely slow and the field bunches entering the straight.

The compressed field gives the strong finishers from the back their optimal scenario to unleash late runs. Horses with proven finishing kicks can sweep past those who went too early.

Bay Dream BelieverEveryoneknowsadaveTwilight SafariDistinction

Front Runners Steal It

10% probability

If Popeye Doyle or Poet's Dawn improve dramatically and the pace becomes genuinely searching.

The honest early gallop stretches the field and exposes those without the stamina for the trip. The leaders maintain their advantage as the hold-up horses fail to close the gap.

Poet's DawnSpirit CatcherTiberio ForcePopeye Doyle

Chaos Benefits Outsiders

5% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish from halfway.

The stop-start nature catches many horses flat-footed and allows unconsidered runners with tactical speed to strike. Form lines become less reliable in a messy tactical affair.

Tiberio ForceOff SpinSkinny MalinkaSpeechman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Popeye Doyle could lead throughout if his two AW wins translate to turf and the pace stays moderate

WATCH

Watch for market support for Finlaggan who showed dramatic improvement when stepped up in trip last time

NOTE

Spirit Catcher needs to prove his Musselburgh win wasn't just a product of a weak contest

WATCH

Any significant drift in the market about Poet's Dawn given his age and recent moderate form

NOTE

Monitor early positioning of the hold-up horses as track position will be crucial in a large field

3:50 — British EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Shallow to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Beaujolais Nouveau and Cotai Belle led; the map had Shallow in front.

Beaujolais Nouveau won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Shallow

Prominent · 3

Lebron PowerSaffron DandyBeaujolais Nouveau

Midfield · 2

Alpine GirlSpace Bear

Hold Up · 3

AnaisaPowderingCotai Belle

Shallow provides the only confirmed front-running presence in this 9-runner field, setting up a sustainable early pace without immediate pressure from the start. Beaujolais Nouveau, Saffron Dandy and Lebron Power will likely track just behind in prominent positions, but none are natural speed horses who will challenge Shallow's early supremacy. The large contingent of hold-up runners (Powdering, Alpine Girl, Anaisa, Cotai Belle, Space Bear) will sit towards the back, creating a compressed field behind a solid but uncontested pace. This race shape heavily favours the prominent runners who can position themselves within striking distance without getting caught up in a late traffic jam.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

65% probability

If the prominent runners secure good positions behind Shallow's honest pace

The hold-up horses get caught in traffic as prominent runners have clear runs to challenge from ideal positions. Beaujolais Nouveau, Saffron Dandy and Lebron Power benefit from tactical positioning without being asked to make the running.

Beaujolais NouveauSaffron DandyLebron PowerShallow

Late Surge Prevails

20% probability

If the pace becomes truly unsustainable or the field spreads out more than expected

The hold-up horses find clear passages and their superior finishing kicks prove decisive in the final furlong. Space Bear and Alpine Girl benefit from their proven finishing ability when getting racing room.

Space BearAlpine GirlAnaisaCotai Belle

Front Runner Steals It

10% probability

If Shallow gets an uncontested lead and the field fails to organize an effective challenge

The lack of early pressure allows Shallow to dictate terms completely and hold off late challengers. Her honest galloping style and proven ability at the trip becomes crucial when controlling the tempo.

ShallowBeaujolais NouveauSaffron DandySpace Bear

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If multiple horses challenge Shallow early or the pace becomes stop-start

An unexpectedly messy pace scenario creates opportunities for horses with tactical speed to capitalize on positioning errors. The race becomes more about who adapts best to changing circumstances than natural running styles.

Lebron PowerAlpine GirlAnaisaBeaujolais Nouveau

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Shallow must maintain honest gallop early - if she goes too fast or too slow it changes everything for the prominent runners

WATCH

Traffic developing in final 2f as multiple hold-up horses (Powdering, Alpine Girl, Anaisa, Space Bear) seek racing room simultaneously

NOTE

Beaujolais Nouveau and Saffron Dandy securing ideal tracking positions behind Shallow in the first two furlongs

WATCH

Space Bear's ability to reproduce Yarmouth form stepping up significantly in class against these rivals

NOTE

Weather conditions remaining stable as any track deterioration would impact the hold-up horses' effectiveness

4:20 — On-Course Bookmakers Welcome You To Ripon Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Good · NOV · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

4:50 — Swinton Park Silver Anniversary Cup Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Quirke On Parole to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Penny Ghent and Ring Of Gold led; the map had Quirke On Parole in front.

Penny Ghent won at 29.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently.

2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Quirke On Parole

Prominent · 2

Daring LeaderPenny Ghent

Midfield · 7

VolentiBalqaaArranmoreI Can BoogyFar AheadRing Of GoldHaaf A Diamond

Hold Up · 4

WoodleighOilisaLittle TedBarleybrown

Quirke On Parole is the sole confirmed front-runner and will lead uncontested, setting a controlled gallop that may be too steady for this competitive handicap field. Daring Leader and Penny Ghent could press forward if needed, but the majority are hold-up horses including Barleybrown, Volenti, Little Ted, Oilisa, I Can Boogy, Balqaa, Ring Of Gold, Woodleigh, Far Ahead, Haaf A Diamond, and Arranmore. With 11 of 14 runners preferring to come from behind, the race will develop into a sprint finish where those getting first run from midfield will have a significant advantage over those held up too long. This race shape strongly favours prominent/midfield runners who can position close enough to strike early in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Suits Leaders

45% probability

If Quirke On Parole maintains a steady gallop without pressure from behind

The uncontested leader can dictate terms and prove hard to peg back, while any horse tracking close behind gets first run on the field. Daring Leader and Penny Ghent benefit from forward positions while the massed ranks of hold-up horses struggle to make up ground.

Quirke On ParoleDaring LeaderPenny GhentI Can Boogy

Midfield Strike Scenario

35% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and allows midfield runners to position perfectly

Horses like Woodleigh and Oilisa can get into ideal spots three-four lengths off the leader and time their runs to perfection. The hold-up brigade gets caught too far back as the race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole.

WoodleighOilisaI Can BoogyHaaf A Diamond

Late Cavalry Charge

12% probability

If the early pace collapses completely and becomes a crawl

The race turns into a 2f dash where the strongest finishers from the back can unleash devastating late runs. Barleybrown and Volenti can overcome their poor positions if they have enough track left to work with.

BarleybrownVolentiRing Of GoldFar Ahead

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If Quirke On Parole goes too slow early then multiple horses make premature moves

The race becomes a messy affair with several runners making their effort together from the 3f pole, favouring those with natural pace. I Can Boogy and Balqaa can benefit if they get clear runs in the scramble.

I Can BoogyBalqaaHaaf A DiamondArranmore

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Quirke On Parole must handle the pressure of leading throughout and could fold if challenged early by Daring Leader or Penny Ghent

WATCH

The massive contingent of hold-up horses creates a traffic nightmare scenario where several runners will get blocked for runs in the straight

NOTE

Woodleigh and Oilisa both return from modest efforts but have winning form at this level and could benefit from the likely strong pace

WATCH

First-time cheekpieces on Haaf A Diamond worked well last time but she faces much stiffer competition here

NOTE

Watch the market move on I Can Boogy who gets valuable weight relief from the 3lb claimer and showed promise when second two starts ago

5:20 — Mark Leather's 70th Birthday Handicap (Div I)

6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Ellie's de Vega to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Simba's Pride and Ellie's de Vega and Tenor's Inn led, as the map showed.

Gunalt Wavelength won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ellie's de Vega

Prominent · 2

Simba's PridePeggy Boo

Midfield · 3

Hares BredthTenor's InnWhat A Tahoo

Hold Up · 3

Pivotal TermsGunalt WavelengthVega's Virtue

Ellie's de Vega is the lone confirmed front-runner and will dictate proceedings from the gate, likely getting an uncontested lead with Simba's Pride (prominent) and Peggy Boo (prominent) tracking behind. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Pivotal Terms, Vega's Virtue, Gunalt Wavelength, Hares Bredth, Tenor's Inn, What A Tahoo) will be bunched at the back, creating a distinct early split. With minimal early pace pressure, Ellie's de Vega can control fractions and kick for home, while the prominent runners get first run on the hold-up brigade. This tactical setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable late traffic problems that will engulf the back-markers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner

45% probability

If Ellie's de Vega gets easy fractions with no early pressure from the prominent duo

She can dictate ideal splits and kick clear in the straight before the hold-up horses get organized. The sheer weight of numbers behind creates inevitable interference and traffic issues.

Ellie's de VegaSimba's PrideHares BredthPivotal Terms

Prominent Takeover

30% probability

If Simba's Pride or Peggy Boo press Ellie's de Vega early and establish better position

The prominent runners get first run while the leader tires, but still finish ahead of the trailing pack who face traffic. Superior class of Simba's Pride tells in a speed battle.

Simba's PridePeggy BooEllie's de VegaGunalt Wavelength

Hold-Up Hero

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and the field comes back to the hold-up horses

The back-markers get clear runs and superior finishing speed overcomes positional disadvantage. Pivotal Terms' recent form and Gunalt Wavelength's consistency become decisive factors.

Pivotal TermsGunalt WavelengthHares BredthVega's Virtue

Pace Collapse Surprise

10% probability

If Ellie's de Vega goes too slow early and multiple horses challenge simultaneously

A blanket finish develops where any horse with a clear passage can win. The 52-day absences of Tenor's Inn and What A Tahoo become less relevant in a sprint finish.

Tenor's InnWhat A TahooVega's VirtueHares Bredth

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ellie's de Vega must break cleanly to establish position or the entire pace dynamic shifts dramatically

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in final furlong as six hold-up horses converge simultaneously behind early leaders

WATCH

Simba's Pride's jumping from stalls given prominent style needs early position behind Ellie's de Vega

NOTE

Jamie Gormley's handling of Ellie's de Vega's early fractions will determine if front-running advantage holds

NOTE

Pivotal Terms getting clear run in straight given Andrew Mullen's ability to find racing room late

5:50 — Mark Leather's 70th Birthday Handicap (Div II)

6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

I'm Dan Dare to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Solar Cooper led; the map had I'm Dan Dare in front.

Solar Cooper won at 13.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

I'm Dan Dare

Prominent · 3

MaynoraLuck MoneyCall Me By My Name

Midfield · 2

Battenburg BelleDance Hello

Hold Up · 3

Solar CooperCarnation QueenKode Grey

I'm Dan Dare is the sole confirmed front runner and will lead from the gates with Maynora and Luck Money sitting prominent behind him. With limited early pace pressure, I'm Dan Dare can dictate a controlled tempo through the opening furlongs before the field fans out. The lack of multiple pace pressers means this will develop into a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed who can sit close to the pace and kick when it matters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace Suits Leaders

45% probability

If I'm Dan Dare gets an uncontested lead and sets moderate fractions

The lone leader can measure out his effort perfectly while prominent runners like Maynora get ideal positioning to strike. Hold-up horses will find themselves too far back when the pace quickens late.

I'm Dan DareMaynoraLuck MoneyCall Me By My Name

Tactical Battle Develops

30% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling and multiple horses bunch up behind the leader

The race becomes a sprint finish where tactical speed and positioning trump stamina, suiting those who can travel well in behind. Horses with finishing kicks will benefit from the shorter sustained effort required.

Call Me By My NameLuck MoneyI'm Dan DareCarnation Queen

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

15% probability

If I'm Dan Dare goes too fast early or the prominent runners engage in a pace battle

The early pace collapses allowing closers to sweep up from the back as the leaders tire. This scenario requires genuine pace pressure up front to set it up properly.

Solar CooperBattenburg BelleDance HelloKode Grey

Longshot Surprise Emerges

10% probability

If the favourites underperform due to track position or traffic problems

Horses with less exposed form or significant weight advantages can capitalize on a messy race where class doesn't tell. The handicap nature allows for surprise packages to emerge.

Kode GreyDance HelloBattenburg BelleSolar Cooper

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Maynora drawn in stall 1 could get squeezed early which would compromise his prominent racing style

WATCH

Call Me By My Name and Kode Grey both show late fade patterns that could be exposed again over this trip

NOTE

I'm Dan Dare wearing cheekpieces again after they sparked improvement in his last run 10 days ago

WATCH

Multiple horses trying headgear changes including Carnation Queen and Solar Cooper suggesting recent struggles

NOTE

Track conditions remain good throughout the card which should suit the majority of runners with form on similar ground

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 17 May 2026.

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