Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
7:09 — Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Poet's Dawn to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Glorious Kitty led; the map had Poet's Dawn in front.
Jesmond Dawn won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Poet's Dawn
Prominent · 1
Glorious Kitty
Midfield · 4
Jesmond DawnHopeful JoyPrecious SpartanVolenti
Hold Up · 3
Urban RoadUp The JazzPopeye Doyle
Poet's Dawn is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will dictate a solo, uncontested gallop from the front over this flat Ripon mile on Good ground. The pace will be honest but controlled — Poet's Dawn has won twice at this trip and going combination and has every reason to bowl along at a rhythm that suits, rather than be pushed into a suicidal clip. Behind, Glorious Kitty is the most likely horse to press from a prominent pitch, with Urban Road and Up The Jazz likely to settle in behind before making their moves turning for home. The field holds more hold-up types than the race shape can naturally accommodate — Jesmond Dawn, Hopeful Joy, Precious Spartan, and Volenti are all genuine closers who are redistributed toward midfield on the map, meaning their true closer's run is compromised by a race that may simply not generate enough late pace for them to pounce. This shape strongly favours horses who can track the leader prominently and sustain their effort into the final furlong — prominent racers and one-pace gallopers who can sit just off the controlled lead are best placed.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Poet's Dawn Controls Wire-To-Wire
58% probability
If Poet's Dawn establishes an uncontested lead and maintains a measured gallop, no rival has the stomach to close.
Poet's Dawn settles into a comfortable front-running rhythm on Good ground at a trip and surface where it has won twice; with no horse genuinely willing to chase it down, it simply extends approaching the final furlong and holds on. Glorious Kitty, tracking from second, is the most likely to mount a sustained challenge but must cope with a horse that has already stolen a march.
Poet's DawnGlorious KittyUp The JazzUrban Road
B
Prominent Challenger Wears Down Leader
22% probability
If Glorious Kitty or Up The Jazz tracks Poet's Dawn closely and outstays it inside the final furlong.
A sustained gallop set by Poet's Dawn over a flat mile gradually plays into the hands of a horse sitting a length off the pace throughout; Glorious Kitty brings strong recent form (two wins from last three) and a jockey who can time a challenge, while Up The Jazz won over this exact trip and going last time out and is suited by a race run at this tempo.
Glorious KittyUp The JazzPoet's DawnUrban Road
C
Late Closers Swamp Tiring Front-Runner
13% probability
If Poet's Dawn goes too fast early and the pace unravels in the final two furlongs, gifting a run to hold-up horses.
Urban Road and Jesmond Dawn are the pick of the closers if genuine late pace develops; however, multiple hold-up horses in this field are racing partially out of their natural role, which dilutes the chance that a clean late run materialises for any individual. Even in this scenario the redistribution of so many closers into midfield means they will race close enough to benefit if the pace collapses.
Urban RoadJesmond DawnHopeful JoyVolenti
D
Messy Midfield Scrimmage
7% probability
If several horses dispute prominent positions early, creating a rough race and neutralising Poet's Dawn's advantage.
The clustering of redistributed hold-up types into midfield creates traffic complications on the turn; any horse that finds a clear run late could profit, but this scenario relies on the pace genuinely falling apart, which is unlikely given a lone confirmed front-runner setting an even tempo. Popeye Doyle with tongue-tie and Jason Hart could benefit from the chaos if rivals interfere with each other.
Popeye DoyleUrban RoadJesmond DawnUp The Jazz
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Poet's Dawn sets off uncontested — if David Allan controls the fractions, this horse could simply never be headed; monitor whether any rival attempts to go with it in the first two furlongs, as a fully unchallenged lead significantly increases its winning chance.
WATCH
Glorious Kitty's jockey Lewis Chalkley is a 7lb claimer on a horse with two recent wins — if Chalkley can position it just off Poet's Dawn's quarters without using up Glorious Kitty's energy early, it becomes the most dangerous challenger in the race.
WATCH
Hopeful Joy returns from a 45-day break and Precious Spartan from 89 days — both are closers already forced out of their natural role; if either shows any signs of ring-rustiness in the first half-mile, discount their chances completely in what is a strongly pace-scenario race.
NOTE
Up The Jazz won over this exact trip and going last time out — watch for Warren Fentiman positioning it to travel smoothly in the first four furlongs; if it is still going well turning for home it represents the most straightforward form pick in the race.
NOTE
The clustering of Jesmond Dawn, Hopeful Joy, Precious Spartan, and Volenti in midfield creates a congestion risk on the turn at Ripon — any horse drawn toward the inside that gets squeezed on the bend could lose all momentum; draw position and early positioning will matter.
Reigning Profit won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Goyard
Prominent · 3
Kodiac ThrillerVince L'AmourCanaria Queen
Midfield · 2
Mark's ChoiceSouth Parade
Hold Up · 3
Reigning ProfitTees AggregatesRock Of England
Goyard is the one confirmed front-runner in this nine-runner 5f handicap and, with no genuine rival disputing the lead, Daniel Tudhope should be able to bowl along at a controlled, sustainable gallop rather than being dragged into a burning pace battle. Vince L'Amour and Canaria Queen will push to race prominently behind Goyard, giving the front of the field a compact three-horse pack, while Kodiac Thriller is also a prominent type who will be seeking to slot in just behind. Mark's Choice and South Parade are genuine hold-up horses by profile but, with the rear of the field already crowded with true hold-up types in Tees Aggregates, Rock Of England and Reigning Profit, they have been redistributed to midfield on the map — in reality they are unlikely to secure their natural position and may find themselves squeezed into a neither-here-nor-there berth. With one front-runner controlling a good-ground 5f at a measured clip, this race shape strongly favours horses who can race handy and sustain their effort throughout, or hold-up types with the acceleration to close a modest but steady gallop — prominent racers travelling within themselves off a sensible pace are the primary beneficiaries.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Goyard Controls, Prominent Strikes
62% probability
If Goyard goes unchallenged to the front and sets a measured, uncontested gallop throughout the 5f.
Tudhope dictates every yard at a pace that suits his mount, and the horses tracking just behind in a tight, compact group get the perfect opportunity to challenge in the final furlong without expending energy fighting for position early. Prominent horses racing within themselves off this pace are ideally placed to pounce close home on good ground.
GoyardVince L'AmourCanaria QueenKodiac Thriller
B
Closers Land Late Blow
18% probability
If the early pace is quicker than it appears and the prominent horses are briefly stretched, leaving a gap for genuine hold-up types.
Tees Aggregates and Rock Of England, both boasting excellent recent form at 5f on good ground, have the finishing speed to pick off weakening front-rank rivals if any fatigue sets in over the final furlong. Their strong similar-going records give confidence they handle these conditions, and both arrive in solid form.
Tees AggregatesRock Of EnglandReigning ProfitCanaria Queen
C
Pace Collapses, Front Weakens
12% probability
If Goyard is pushed wider or quicker than intended by early pressure from prominent rivals and the gallop becomes unsustainable.
A fractionally stronger early pace would see the front-running types tied up inside the final furlong, handing the hold-up brigade more daylight than expected. Rock Of England and Tees Aggregates, both proven closers on this type of ground, would be the chief beneficiaries of any leader capitulating.
Rock Of EnglandTees AggregatesReigning ProfitMark's Choice
D
Outsider Defies Odds
8% probability
If the race is run in a chaotic or muddled fashion with no clear rhythm, scrambling the advantage of any single profile.
South Parade or Mark's Choice, pushed out of their natural hold-up role and racing in unfamiliar midfield positions, could get a fortuitous passage if the race fragments and gaps open at the wrong time for fancied runners. At big prices either could sneak into frame money if chaos outweighs tactics, though their STYLE_FIT discount makes this a low-probability outcome.
Watch Goyard's price: if he drifts in the market despite holding the sole front-running role, it may signal that connections expect him to be slower away than usual and the prominent-racer advantage shifts to Vince L'Amour or Canaria Queen.
WATCH
Monitor the draw at Ripon's 5f — low-drawn runners have an established advantage at this course and any prominent-style horse drawn high (particularly Kodiac Thriller or Vince L'Amour) will need to work harder to secure their position.
WATCH
Tees Aggregates is a hold-up type arriving on a quick 14-day turnaround but with strong recent form (945331) — if the market shortens him significantly it suggests the Nicholls yard is bullish, and his closing speed on good ground makes him the primary danger to any front-rank horse.
NOTE
Rock Of England's 33-day absence is notable given Paul Midgley's stable runs at 0/19 in the last 14 days — trainer not in form, so a market move or lack thereof will be informative before this race begins.
NOTE
Both Mark's Choice and South Parade are true hold-up horses effectively racing out of their natural position — if the pace is as steady as expected, watch for either to be checked or short of room in the final two furlongs, making them unreliable at any price.
8:15 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners
No obvious leaderHISTORIC
How it ran
Hansteen led.
Riddikulus won at 12.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 0
None
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 6
Star Of EmeraldKeep It ClassicFairydaleResdev TimeHansteenRiddikulus
Hold Up · 2
PicaroVietnorm
With no confirmed front-runner in this eight-runner field, Ripon's 1m4f trip is set to be run at an uncertain, likely modest gallop with no horse willing to commit hard from the front. Star Of Emerald is the one runner with an unknown style profile who could drift forward and set the tempo, but if she settles back the field risks crawling into a bunched sprint finish over the last two furlongs. The field is dominated by hold-up types — Vietnorm, Picaro, Fairydale, Keep It Classic, Resdev Time, Hansteen, and Riddikulus all want to come from behind, meaning the race is almost certain to compress into a late dash with little meaningful pace to stretch it out. This shape strongly favours the horse with the highest cruising speed and the cleanest late kick, rewarding a horse who can travel sweetly in midfield and produce a decisive, well-timed finish — Vietnorm's three recent wins at this trip on Good ground makes that profile extremely relevant. The field holds more hold-up types than can all settle at the rear naturally; among those redistributed to midfield, Keep It Classic and Fairydale are most likely to edge forward and occupy a closer position than their true style dictates.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Slow pace sprint finish
42% probability
If no horse commits to the lead and the field crawls into a bunched final-furlong dash
With an absence of genuine pace-setters, the race drifts into a sprint finish where superior finishing speed and good ground form at this trip prove decisive; Vietnorm's hat-trick of wins over 10f-16f on Good ground makes him the standout profile here.
VietnormKeep It ClassicPicaroFairydale
B
Steady pace stamina test
28% probability
If Star Of Emerald or another runner edges forward to set a gentle, measured tempo that rewards the most resolute stayer
A controlled but genuine gallop stretches the field gradually in the straight, rewarding horses who stay well rather than those relying on a sharp finishing burst; Vietnorm's proven stamina at 16f on Good ground and Keep It Classic's placed run at 12f on Good both suit this shape.
VietnormKeep It ClassicRiddikulusResdev Time
C
Closer fails to get through
18% probability
If the compressed field creates traffic problems and pace-pressers who tracked slightly closer grab the initiative in the straight
With so many true hold-up horses competing for the same late ground, those who can travel closer to the pace in the midfield group benefit from fewer rivals to pass; Keep It Classic and Fairydale, though natural hold-up types likely to find themselves slightly more prominent than intended, could capitalise.
Keep It ClassicFairydaleResdev TimeRiddikulus
D
Lone traveller steals it
12% probability
If one horse, most likely Star Of Emerald, unexpectedly takes up a clear lead early and is allowed to stride away unchallenged at a true gallop
A solo front-runner left unchallenged on Good ground over 1m4f at Ripon can set a fractions-controlled pace and be very hard to reel in from a field full of sluggish starters; Star Of Emerald's unknown style and recent return to form over 12f make her the likeliest beneficiary if the field is slow to respond.
Star Of EmeraldFairydaleKeep It ClassicPicaro
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Vietnorm's three-win streak on Good ground over this trip and further makes him the one horse whose profile perfectly matches the likely slow-pace sprint finish — watch if Barry McHugh can get a clear run from the hold-up group.
WATCH
Star Of Emerald is the only horse with an unknown style in this field; if Rowan Scott elects to send her forward early and the others are slow to react, she could control proceedings and drastically change the race shape from expected.
WATCH
Traffic risk is high with six or seven horses all wanting late positions in a small eight-runner field — watch the straight carefully for Picaro, Riddikulus, and Resdev Time becoming boxed in behind rivals who are also trying to close.
NOTE
Hansteen is 89 days off the track with only three career runs and a pattern of fading in the finish — if he struggles for fitness in the straight, he could block the run of closer rivals behind him, making him a positioning hazard.
NOTE
Keep It Classic's trainer William Haggas and Tom Marquand are a high-class combination dropping well down in class; the horse may find himself unexpectedly prominent given the redistribution dynamic, and that closer position could suit him better than his natural style suggests.
8:52 — David Chapman Memorial Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners
Brash likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Tie Fighter led; the map had Brash in front.
Lamlash Bay won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Brash
Prominent · 1
Lamlash Bay
Midfield · 4
Soul WarriorNorthern TempestHavana OaksLong Shot
Hold Up · 3
Tie FighterHvarMare Of London
Brash is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine pace rival to push the tempo, Oisin Orr can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front on this straight 6f Ripon track. The remainder of the field is overwhelmingly made up of hold-up types — Soul Warrior, Northern Tempest, Havana Oaks, Long Shot and Hvar all want to come from off the pace — meaning the race will likely be run at a measured rhythm that keeps Brash fresh into the final two furlongs rather than blowing him away. Lamlash Bay is the only runner with a genuine prominent profile and may attempt to press Brash, but with limited recent form to suggest she can go with him, the pace dynamic remains thin. The field holds considerably more hold-up horses than the track can accommodate in true rear-running positions; Lamlash Bay is best placed to secure a prominent berth alongside Brash, while Soul Warrior and Northern Tempest — both genuine closers — are the most likely to find space off the pace, though their redistribution to midfield on the map reflects how crowded the back of the field will be. This race shape — a single unhurried front-runner on a flat, straight course with a wall of hold-up types behind — strongly favours horses who can race prominently or make a smooth, early move from midfield, as a slow-run 6f at Ripon rarely produces a true late-flying finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Brash Controls Unchallenged
62% probability
If Lamlash Bay fails to press Brash early and the pace remains slow-to-moderate, allowing Brash to control every yard.
Brash dictates a comfortable gallop and Oisin Orr can nurse him to the two-furlong pole before kicking for home, leaving the hold-up brigade with too little ground to make up. A slow pace on this flat track hands a decisive advantage to the horse who gets a clean lead and builds momentum gradually — Brash is that horse.
BrashLamlash BayMare Of LondonTie Fighter
B
Prominent Pair Fight It Out
20% probability
If Lamlash Bay tracks Brash closely throughout and the pace is slightly hotter than expected, setting up a duel.
Brash and Lamlash Bay match strides down the straight with both jockeys committed early, leaving the winner likely to be whichever has the superior late reserves. Tie Fighter and Mare Of London, with the ability to sit just off the pace in a rhythm, could pick up the pieces if both leaders empty.
Lamlash BayTie FighterMare Of LondonBrash
C
Midfield Mover Strikes Late
11% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to stop the front-runner and a midfield horse produces a sustained run from two furlongs out.
Northern Tempest or Long Shot — both genuine hold-up horses with course-relevant form — would need a stronger gallop than Brash is likely to set, but if Lamlash Bay does force the tempo, a late surge becomes conceivable. Long Shot's three placed efforts at this trip on good ground give this scenario its only meaningful traction, though the redistribution of true closers to midfield means many of these runners will be racing too close to the pace to finish with a true flourish.
Long ShotNorthern TempestSoul WarriorHavana Oaks
D
Hold-Up Types Swamp Them
7% probability
If the race descends into chaos, with several jockeys gambling on a late run simultaneously in a falsely-run race.
With four or five genuine hold-up horses all waiting for a gap that never fully opens, most will find themselves checked or short of room in the final furlong. Hvar's one win came from the back at Southwell on standard, making Good ground and a flat Ripon straight a different ask; only a rider prepared to commit earlier than their natural style dictates stands any chance.
HvarSoul WarriorMare Of LondonLong Shot
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Lamlash Bay's Lewis Chalkley (7) attempts to press Brash from the outset — if he does not, Brash will control an uncontested lead and the race shape is effectively sealed inside the first furlong.
WATCH
Monitor the draw and early positioning of Long Shot and Northern Tempest: if both are forced to race genuinely wide or are boxed behind a wall of hold-up types, their already-uncertain late runs become near-impossible on a flat track with no bend to create gaps.
WATCH
Soul Warrior's record of fading in finishes on good ground combined with being pushed out of his natural rear-running position means he could drop away tamely — flag him as a possible fader rather than a closer in running.
NOTE
Hvar's tailed-off runs on turf good ground and his sole win being on Southwell standard make him a potential non-factor; Jason Hart may be forced to commit earlier than normal to avoid getting swamped, which would be entirely against the horse's profile.
NOTE
Tie Fighter wears blinkers for the first time today — watch whether the headgear sharpens him out of the gate and allows Tom Marquand to secure a midfield position closer to the pace than his recent races suggest, which would significantly change his chance in a slowly-run race.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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