Archive›Roscommon · 11 May 2026

Roscommon

11 May 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:53 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)

7½f · Good · MDN · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

5:23 — Next Meeting At Roscommon On Monday, 18th May Handicap

7½f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Mullacash Buzz to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Brains led; the map had Mullacash Buzz in front.

Kitty Bear won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mullacash Buzz

Prominent · 6

BrainsYour Out Of LineAreyousureSerengeti SunriseMy KurkumManhattan Dandy

Midfield · 6

Miss IvorProfit SurgeBucky LarsonStraight Back UpRiver DerwentHalf Nutz

Hold Up · 5

Maw CanKitty BearJasmine AffanalisMorning ApproachCordouan

Mullacash Buzz is the sole confirmed front-runner and will get an uncontested lead, setting a comfortable gallop with minimal early pressure. Brains, Manhattan Dandy, Serengeti Sunrise, My Kurkum and Areyousure may sit prominent but lack the pace to challenge early. The mid-race tempo will be moderate with most of the field held up including Jasmine Affanalis, Kitty Bear, Cordouan, Maw Can, and Profit Surge. This sustainable pace followed by a sprint finish strongly favours hold-up horses with a turn of foot who can close late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Mullacash Buzz maintains his recent improved form with blinkers fitted

The front-runner gets perfect fractions and proves hard to peg back up the straight with most closers giving him too much rope. His regular success around Roscommon and fair Dundalk fourth suggests he can exploit this tactical advantage.

Mullacash BuzzBrainsManhattan DandyBucky Larson

Hold-Up Horse Sprint

35% probability

If the pace becomes truly sedate and suits strong finishers

The lack of early speed allows closers to unleash devastating late kicks with Jasmine Affanalis and Kitty Bear having the class edge. Both have shown winning form at this level and benefit from the tactical setup.

Jasmine AffanalisKitty BearProfit SurgeBucky Larson

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If one of the prominent runners can get first run on the leader

Brains or Manhattan Dandy position themselves perfectly behind Mullacash Buzz and strike with 2f to run. Both have course form and the tactical nous to exploit their positions just behind the pace.

BrainsManhattan DandyMullacash BuzzJasmine Affanalis

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If Mullacash Buzz goes too slow and multiple horses charge late

The race becomes a messy sprint where any horse with a bit of zip can win from anywhere. The form book goes out the window in a blanket finish with outsiders getting competitive.

Half NutzRiver DerwentSerengeti SunriseBucky Larson

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mullacash Buzz gets uncontested lead and dictates fractions - if pace becomes crawl he's extremely dangerous

WATCH

Half Nutz reserve status could deny improved Gowran performer a crucial opportunity to build on better effort

NOTE

Kitty Bear and Orla Tynan combination seeking hat-trick after two recent wins together

WATCH

Multiple horses with fading tendencies could struggle if race becomes truly run sprint finish

NOTE

Shane Foley rides Brains having won on him previously when horse showed best recent form at Leopardstown

5:53 — www.roscommonracecourse.ie Handicap

7½f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Fast Tara to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Navagio led; the map had Fast Tara in front.

Sun Soldier won at 3.25 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fast Tara

Prominent · 7

Gloriously GlamSun SoldierChester NimitzNeo SmartShoot To KillMercurialMinaun View

Midfield · 5

AnvikaZaraahmandoSpent All Me MoneyNavagioLittle Miss P

Hold Up · 5

Finsceal AnnieHighbury See SeeEarlsAltimaraSan Aer

Fast Tara will lead from the wide draw with no other confirmed front-runners in this field. The presence of several prominent runners like Sun Soldier, Chester Nimitz, and Neo Smart will create a moderate early gallop but Fast Tara shouldn't face severe pressure. With 18 runners including many hold-up horses like San Aer, Anvika, and Earls, the pace will be sustainable early before quickening in the final three furlongs. This race shape strongly favours horses that can sit handy and kick, as the lone leader may tire and the hold-up brigade will struggle to make up ground from the back in such a large field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Handy Horses Strike

45% probability

If the prominent runners position well and Fast Tara sets manageable fractions

The race develops perfectly for horses sitting 3rd-6th who can quicken when Fast Tara comes back to them in the final furlong. These runners avoid traffic issues that will plague the back markers.

Sun SoldierChester NimitzNeo SmartGloriously Glam

Fast Tara Holds On

30% probability

If Fast Tara gets easy lead fractions and the field fails to mount serious challenge

The leader maintains her advantage to the line as the prominent runners fail to close decisively and the hold-up horses leave themselves too much to do. Her course-and-distance experience proves crucial.

Fast TaraShoot To KillSun SoldierSpent All Me Money

Hold-Up Hero Emerges

15% probability

If the pace becomes overly strong with prominent runners pressuring Fast Tara early

The early pace collapses allowing a patient hold-up horse with tactical speed to sweep through late. The field spreads out creating racing room for the closers.

San AerAltimaraHighbury See SeeZaraahmando

Outsider Benefits

10% probability

If the race becomes messy with trouble in running for the fancied runners

Traffic problems and interference allow a well-positioned outsider to steal through for victory. The large field creates chaos that favours horses drawn well with alert jockeys.

Minaun ViewMercurialLittle Miss PNavagio

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Fast Tara must handle wide draw without over-racing, as burning energy early will see her caught late

WATCH

Sun Soldier's prominent style perfect for race shape but needs to handle 7lb rise from last victory

NOTE

Shoot To Kill represents excellent value returning to scene of 2024 triumph now 8lb lower in weights

WATCH

Large field of 18 creates significant traffic risk for all hold-up horses drawn poorly

NOTE

Weather conditions remain stable with good ground throughout card favouring front-running types

6:23 — Athlone Handicap (Div I)

7½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

Girl Bear likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Girl Bear led, as the map showed.

Cisterna won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Girl Bear

Prominent · 3

Coincidental GloryMerry BlacksmithGold Inn

Midfield · 6

Wicklow GapSweet Baby ZouOnly One ScobieConcaireCisternaMoonlight Molly

Hold Up · 4

PersonifiedZermatt StarThirsty OwlDont Get Me Wrong

Girl Bear is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and should dictate a sustainable pace without serious early pressure. Prominent runners like Gold Inn, Coincidental Glory, and Merry Blacksmith may track close but lack the early zip to challenge Girl Bear's lead. The majority of this field are hold-up horses including Personified, Thirsty Owl, Zermatt Star, and Wicklow Gap, creating a natural tactical scenario where the pace will be reasonable early before quickening late. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit handy and kick, as they'll avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will befall the large contingent of hold-up horses in the final furlong scramble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Girl Bear sets uncontested fractions and prominent trackers position ideally

The handy horses avoid the late traffic and can quicken clear while hold-up horses struggle for racing room in a bunched finish. Coincidental Glory and Gold Inn get first run on the field while others are still seeking gaps.

Coincidental GloryGold InnGirl BearMerry Blacksmith

Hold-Up Horse Finds Gaps

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong and hold-up horses get clean runs

Personified's class tells late as she weaves through to win, with other patient riders finding room to finish strongly. The early leaders capitulate under pressure.

PersonifiedThirsty OwlCisternaZermatt Star

Pacemaker Steals It

15% probability

If Girl Bear's uncontested lead proves insurmountable despite her recent poor form

The front-runner gets such an easy time of it early that she has enough left to hold off late challengers. Her superior tactical position trumps recent disappointing efforts.

Girl BearCoincidental GloryGold InnPersonified

Improver Strikes

10% probability

If Zermatt Star or Thirsty Owl shows significant improvement from their breaks

Either the Harrington newcomer or McLoughlin's returning charge produces a career-best effort to land a surprise. Fresh legs and new surroundings spark improvement.

Zermatt StarThirsty OwlConcaireSweet Baby Zou

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Girl Bear could get an uncontested lead if other prominent runners fail to pressure early fractions

WATCH

Personified carries a 7lb penalty and quick return from three days ago may tell in finish

WATCH

Multiple hold-up horses including Wicklow Gap, Concaire and Sweet Baby Zou show fading tendencies late

NOTE

Thirsty Owl returns from long break with cheekpieces for new trainer McLoughlin

NOTE

Market support for handicap debutantes Zermatt Star or Gold Inn would be significant given limited exposed form

6:53 — Athlone Handicap (Div II)

7½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

He's Holding Court to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

He's Holding Court led, as the map showed.

Substance won at 3.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

He's Holding Court

Prominent · 2

SubstanceLumiere Des Etoile

Midfield · 6

Gimme EnergySunrise AngelElly BayOne Cool BearFortuityAlandownunder

Hold Up · 4

Running PointLove OrchidEspritroyaleClonbun

He's Holding Court is the sole confirmed front runner and will likely get an uncontested lead in this 13-runner handicap. With Substance and Lumiere Des Etoile the only prominent racers, the early pace should be steady rather than fierce. The majority of the field - including One Cool Bear, Sunrise Angel, Love Orchid, and Running Point - are hold-up horses who will need the race to develop. This race shape strongly favours horses that can travel kindly in midfield and finish, as the modest early gallop will create a bunched finish where stamina and a strong kick matter most.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Steady Pace Kick

65% probability

If He's Holding Court gets an easy lead and the pace stays modest throughout

The hold-up horses get ideal conditions as the field stays bunched, allowing the best finishers to unleash late runs. One Cool Bear and Sunrise Angel, both showing consistent form, can capitalize on their preferred patient tactics.

One Cool BearSunrise AngelLove OrchidRunning Point

Leaders Fade Late

20% probability

If He's Holding Court and the prominent racers set slightly stronger fractions than expected

The early pace takes more out of the leaders, creating opportunities for horses tracking closer. Substance and Lumiere Des Etoile benefit from being handy without leading, while some hold-up horses arrive too late.

SubstanceLumiere Des EtoileOne Cool BearClonbun

Messy Cavalry Charge

10% probability

If the hold-up brigade all come with runs simultaneously in the final two furlongs

Too many horses with similar tactics create traffic problems and a scrappy finish. The horse with the clearest run or best position prevails, likely favoring those drawn better or with stronger jockeys.

Running PointLove OrchidOne Cool BearSubstance

Front Runner Sustains

5% probability

If He's Holding Court gets such an easy time in front that he can sustain his kick

The lightweight leader uses his 19lb advantage and uncontested lead to maximum effect. His recent form suggests he fades, but the tactical advantage could prove decisive on this occasion.

He's Holding CourtSubstanceLumiere Des EtoileOne Cool Bear

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

He's Holding Court could get such an easy lead that his weight allowance compensates for his tendency to fade

WATCH

Watch for market support for Substance on handicap debut - Joseph O'Brien's 11/67 strike rate demands respect

WATCH

One Cool Bear has been knocking on the door consistently this year and the visor could provide the edge needed

NOTE

Late money for Running Point would suggest the 194-day break and tongue tie addition are positive factors

NOTE

Lumiere Des Etoile's market position will reveal whether connections expect the hood and trip increase to work

7:23 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Race (Smullen Series)

1m2½f · Good · DEFAULT · 6 runners

Rebel Ascendant likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nil Bua Gan Dua and Sir Benji led; the map had Rebel Ascendant in front.

Nil Bua Gan Dua won at 2.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rebel Ascendant

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 3

Elzaam ExpressMarjorie DawDial Me In

Hold Up · 2

Nil Bua Gan DuaSir Benji

Rebel Ascendant will be the only confirmed early leader in this small field, setting sustainable fractions without pressure from the prominent division. Sir Benji, Dial Me In, Nil Bua Gan Dua and Marjorie Daw are all hold-up types who will settle off the pace, creating a tactical logjam behind the leader. With minimal early pace and most runners wanting to come from behind, this sets up perfectly for the pace-setter to dictate terms. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Rebel Ascendant Wire Job

45% probability

If Rebel Ascendant gets easy early fractions and maintains his lead

The debut winner can dictate comfortable splits and prove hard to peg back when the hold-up horses finally get organized. With so many closers bunched together, they'll struggle for racing room and clear runs when it matters.

Rebel AscendantSir BenjiNil Bua Gan DuaDial Me In

Sir Benji Class Edge

30% probability

If Sir Benji gets the right splits and finds racing room in the straight

Cromwell's colt showed impressive ability on debut despite greenness and can use his class advantage over this field. His hold-up style works if he avoids the worst of the traffic problems that will plague his rivals.

Sir BenjiNil Bua Gan DuaRebel AscendantDial Me In

Nil Bua Gan Dua Revival

15% probability

If the American Pharoah colt shows his juvenile promise after the Derby entry boost

O'Brien's runner has faced much stronger opposition and could find this easier assignment to his liking. His high-class breeding and previous form at this level gives him a fitness edge over the less exposed types.

Nil Bua Gan DuaSir BenjiDial Me InRebel Ascendant

Dial Me In Surprise

10% probability

If the tongue-tie addition sparks improvement and he gets first run on his stablemate

The Joseph O'Brien runner was one-paced last time but the headgear change could unlock more. His trainer's excellent 14-day record provides confidence that both stable runners come here in peak condition.

Dial Me InNil Bua Gan DuaSir BenjiRebel Ascendant

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Marjorie Daw running again after just 2 days could indicate either peak fitness or desperation from connections.

WATCH

Sir Benji showed greenness on debut - watch for any signs of inexperience in the preliminaries or early stages.

WATCH

Rebel Ascendant's fitness after 32-day break - any signs of rustiness could be fatal given his front-running tactics.

NOTE

Elzaam Express market support would be significant given debut status and moderate breeding profile.

NOTE

Watch for any late jockey changes given the high number of hold-up horses creating tactical complications.

7:53 — Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Radar Ahead likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Doctor Grace and Parish Express led; the map had Radar Ahead in front.

Doctor Grace won at 12.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

6 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Radar Ahead

Prominent · 5

DaboyaRobot RockParish ExpressMakaiahChurchwarden

Midfield · 7

Doctor GraceStepdanceForlioEl RegaloEvening's EmpireMiners CabinIf Dora Could

Hold Up · 5

High HonourBobby KirovaMaster SydneyKakoriGod Of Thunder

Radar Ahead will set a steady, uncontested lead with minimal early pressure from this large field of mostly hold-up horses and midfield runners. Daboya, Churchwarden and Robot Rock may track in second/third positions but none are aggressive pace pressers, allowing Radar Ahead to dictate comfortable fractions through the early stages. The genuine pace will only emerge from the 3f pole as the hold-up brigade including Stepdance, Kakori and Doctor Grace attempt to mount their challenges from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can secure good early positions without pressure, as the majority of the field will be relying on finishing kicks from unpromising positions.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

60% probability

If Radar Ahead gets soft fractions and stays galloping

With no pace pressure early, Radar Ahead can time his effort perfectly and prove too strong for late closers over this stamina-sapping trip. The combination of good recent form at Navan and ideal tactical position makes him very hard to peg back.

Radar AheadDaboyaStepdanceKakori

Late Kick Prevails

25% probability

If the pace becomes crawling and bunches the field

A slow early tempo allows the better handicapped hold-up horses to get closer than usual and unleash decisive finishing kicks. Stepdance's hat-trick form over similar trips on good ground makes him the most likely beneficiary.

StepdanceKakoriDoctor GraceMaster Sydney

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Daboya or Churchwarden can improve positions mid-race

The prominent runners use Radar Ahead's honest pace to get into perfect striking positions turning for home, then outstay the leader in the final furlong. Fresh legs from the long break could prove decisive for either.

DaboyaChurchwardenRadar AheadForlio

Unconsidered Outsider

3% probability

If the pace collapses completely into a sprint finish

The race becomes a pure lottery where any horse getting a clear run can capitalise, potentially suiting an outsider with hidden ability on handicap debut. Only happens if multiple pace scenarios fail.

Robot RockParish ExpressBobby KirovaMakaiah

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Radar Ahead breaking slowly from stalls would completely alter the pace scenario and tactical advantage

WATCH

Market support for Robot Rock or Parish Express on handicap debuts could indicate stable confidence

NOTE

Stepdance's jumping performance in maiden hurdle - any sign of losing his Flat form would be significant

WATCH

Weather changes affecting the good going, as several horses have specific ground preferences

NOTE

Late jockey declarations for reserves Evening's Empire, If Dora Could and Miners Cabin

8:23 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

1m4f · Good · MDN · 13 runners

Marazion likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Marazion and Al Rojo Vivo led, as the map showed.

Marazion won at 3.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Marazion

Prominent · 3

HaranaMassaratAl Rojo Vivo

Midfield · 5

Tears I NevercriedHope N PrayThink About ItTasmanian GirlPoet's Willow

Hold Up · 4

Carmel's PhoenixDuvessaGuy's GirlEnchanted Lady

Marazion is the only confirmed front-runner and will set an uncontested lead alongside prominent runners Harana, Massarat and Al Rojo Vivo. With most of the field holding up or racing midfield, the early pace will be steady rather than fierce, allowing the leaders to dictate terms. The large contingent of hold-up horses including Carmel's Phoenix, Guy's Girl, Duvessa and Enchanted Lady will need to overcome a tactical disadvantage in a race lacking genuine pace pressure. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid the traffic problems that will inevitably affect the closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

55% probability

If Marazion gets an easy lead with minimal early pressure

The pace will be too slow for the hold-up horses to make up ground, allowing the early leaders to control the race completely. Prominent racers can track the leader and have first run when the pace quickens.

MarazionHaranaMassaratAl Rojo Vivo

Prominent Pressure

25% probability

If Harana or Massarat apply early pressure to Marazion

A genuine pace develops that brings the hold-up horses into play but still favours those with early speed. The best-rated closers can capitalize on a stronger gallop while the pace-setters may tire.

Carmel's PhoenixHaranaDuvessaGuy's Girl

Late Closer Surge

12% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the middle stages

The hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with a slow pace followed by a sprint finish. Traffic will still be an issue but class can prevail in a bunched finish.

Carmel's PhoenixGuy's GirlDuvessaEnchanted Lady

Pace Collapse

8% probability

If all the early leaders go too slow and stop quickly

A messy race where anything could happen as tired pace-setters are swamped by a wall of closers. The best horse on the day regardless of tactics could prevail.

Think About ItDuvessaGuy's GirlCarmel's Phoenix

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Marazion could steal this with an uncontested lead if the prominent runners fail to apply pressure early

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe for hold-up horses like Carmel's Phoenix and Guy's Girl if pace is weak

NOTE

Harana's stamina breeding could be key asset if she can stay prominent and outstay Marazion

NOTE

Duvessa stepping up in trip for first time could find significant improvement for in-form O'Brien stable

WATCH

Several horses carry fading tendencies which will be exposed if the pace becomes a sprint finish

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 11 May 2026.

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