Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:00 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden
7½f · Good · MDN · 14 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
6:30 — Jimmy Murray Agri Services Handicap (0-60)
7½f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Eichan San likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Methgal led; the map had Eichan San in front.
La La Lucrative won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Eichan San
Prominent · 3
Blue AnthemMethgalBrains
Midfield · 9
AlandownunderThe Blue PantherPolancoToy SoldierShahada AceQueen Of NewarkSnap DecisionHe's Holding CourtMisava
Hold Up · 5
Zheleznaya DamaSelective PowerLa La LucrativeGivehertilxmasMedieval Night
Eichan San is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner 0-60 handicap over 7½f at Roscommon and is likely to stride into an uncontested lead from the off, setting a measured, sustainable gallop on Good ground. Blue Anthem, Brains, and Methgal will press forward into prominent positions just behind, creating a small cluster of early pace without any genuine challenger looking to harry Eichan San for the lead. The field holds significantly more prominent and hold-up types than can all secure their natural position — Blue Anthem, Brains, and Methgal are best placed to get prominent berths, while Alandownunder, The Blue Panther, Polanco, and others who would naturally want to race prominently will be shuffled back into midfield against their instincts. With a lone front-runner controlling proceedings at a moderate tempo on a flat track, this race shape strongly favours horses who can race prominently from the outset and have the stamina to sustain their effort, giving those travelling just behind Eichan San the optimal platform to pounce in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lone Leader Dictates
52% probability
If Eichan San leads unchallenged at a controlled pace and the prominent trio cannot sustain a challenge from 2f out.
If Eichan San leads unchallenged at a controlled pace and the prominent trio cannot sustain a challenge from 2f out.
Blue AnthemBrainsMethgalSelective Power
B
Prominent Pair Overhaul
27% probability
If Blue Anthem or Brains track Eichan San closely and have enough in reserve to collar him inside the final furlong.
If Blue Anthem or Brains track Eichan San closely and have enough in reserve to collar him inside the final furlong.
Blue AnthemBrainsMethgalEichan San
C
Midfield Closer Threads Through
13% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady and a horse in the mid-division gets a dream passage down the centre to pick off the leaders.
If the pace is genuinely steady and a horse in the mid-division gets a dream passage down the centre to pick off the leaders.
If the early pace collapses dramatically and hold-up horses get a clear run to deliver a late charge.
If the early pace collapses dramatically and hold-up horses get a clear run to deliver a late charge.
Selective PowerLa La LucrativeZheleznaya DamaQueen Of Newark
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Eichan San needs monitoring from the stalls — if he doesn't break cleanly in this 18-runner field, the uncontested lead evaporates and the entire pace map reshapes significantly.
WATCH
Blue Anthem and Brains are both likely to hunt down early positions aggressively; a scrimmage for the prominent spots in the first furlong could compromise one or both, particularly with 18 runners over the Roscommon chute start.
WATCH
La La Lucrative won on Good ground recently and could be underrated at a price, but the fade flag is important — watch whether Robbie Colgan asks her to improve position earlier than ideal, which could expose the tendency to tie up.
NOTE
Medieval Night is stepping down sharply in distance (was running over 9-14f) and Chris Hayes may exploit any pace collapse in the straight — flag if the early tempo is slower than expected and he travels sweetly into the race.
NOTE
Zheleznaya Dama has no jockey confirmed in the data and has a pulled-up run in recent form — track the declaration and jockey booking, as any last-minute rider change could affect how the hold-up tactics are deployed.
7:00 — Conor Cassidy Car Sales Handicap
1m2½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Iamimmaculate likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Ella's Gold led; the map had Iamimmaculate in front.
Nermal won at 3.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Iamimmaculate
Prominent · 3
NermalDont Get Me WrongElla's Gold
Midfield · 3
Vantage CodeFreedom And LightSecond Line
Hold Up · 3
AdelHonouramongthievesRapide Vega
Iamimmaculate is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will dictate from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good ground over 1m2½f at Roscommon. Nermal, Dont Get Me Wrong, and Ella's Gold are the prominent types most likely to press from behind, while the hold-up contingent — Adel, Honouramongthieves, and Rapide Vega — will settle in the rear third waiting on a finishing kick. The field holds more hold-up types than the race map can accommodate at the rear: Vantage Code, Freedom And Light, and Second Line are genuine closers who are unlikely to find their natural position and will instead be crowded into midfield, blunting their effectiveness. An uncontested, measured lead from Iamimmaculate on Good ground over this trip sets up a race where the pace is honest but not brutal — tactically, this shape favours horses who can race prominently just behind the leader and sustain their effort into the straight, rather than those relying on a late burst from an unfavoured rear position.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Prevail
62% probability
If Iamimmaculate dictates an uncontested, even gallop and the prominent runners behind track efficiently into the straight.
If Iamimmaculate dictates an uncontested, even gallop and the prominent runners behind track efficiently into the straight.
NermalElla's GoldIamimmaculateAdel
B
Hold-Up Horse Gets Through
18% probability
If the pace is truly strong enough to compromise front-runners and a genuine hold-up type finds a clear run in the straight.
If the pace is truly strong enough to compromise front-runners and a genuine hold-up type finds a clear run in the straight.
AdelRapide VegaHonouramongthievesNermal
C
Pace Collapses, Closers Swoop
12% probability
If Iamimmaculate sets a deceptively strong early tempo that causes prominent runners to come off the bridle before the straight.
If Iamimmaculate sets a deceptively strong early tempo that causes prominent runners to come off the bridle before the straight.
AdelHonouramongthievesRapide VegaNermal
D
Prominent Fade, Midfield Steals
8% probability
If the pace is so moderate that the race turns into a sprint finish from the home turn, with midfield types catching the leaders flat-footed.
If the pace is so moderate that the race turns into a sprint finish from the home turn, with midfield types catching the leaders flat-footed.
Ella's GoldDont Get Me WrongVantage CodeFreedom And Light
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Iamimmaculate has been off the track for 255 days — watch for any signs of ring-rustiness in the pre-parade or at the start, as fitness failure here collapses the entire race shape.
WATCH
Adel, Honouramongthieves, and Rapide Vega are all genuine hold-up types hunting the same stretch of late ground; watch for traffic problems in the straight if they all converge on the same gap simultaneously.
WATCH
Nermal has posted three consecutive placed efforts and is in the care of a trainer with three winners in 14 days — watch for Ben Coen tracking Iamimmaculate closely from flag fall, which would signal a live prominent challenge.
NOTE
Second Line and Dont Get Me Wrong both carry finish-fade flags — watch whether either horse is still travelling at the two-furlong pole, as fading before that point would confirm the pace has been stronger than it appeared.
NOTE
Freedom And Light and Vantage Code, both true hold-up types displaced into midfield, are worth monitoring for positioning at the start — if either jockey elects to drop out to their natural rear position regardless, it may signal an outside market move.
7:30 — Sean Cleary Memorial Handicap
1m2½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
Liam Swagger likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Vlhova led; the map had Liam Swagger in front.
Thatwilldoso won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Liam Swagger
Prominent · 4
VlhovaUnterbergThatwilldosoFlying Fortress
Midfield · 4
Marta's PrinceSir JeremySinbad My DadBlackjack Hills
Hold Up · 4
SonoranAmplitudeFollow MeGrey Leader
Liam Swagger is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 13-runner field and, with no horse willing or able to seriously contest the lead, is set to bowl along at a sustainable, uncontested tempo over this 1m2½f trip on Good ground at Roscommon. Behind him, Unterberg, Vlhova, Thatwilldoso, and Flying Fortress will vie for prominent positions, but with several hold-up types also in the field — Sir Jeremy, Sinbad My Dad, and Blackjack Hills — the midfield and rear will be congested, with those redistributed horses unlikely to secure their natural position at the back. The field holds more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate; Sir Jeremy, Sinbad My Dad, and Blackjack Hills are genuine closers but will be shuffled into a midfield role by circumstance, diluting their finish. A single, uncontested lead at an honest-but-not-suicidal clip on a flat, Good-ground track overwhelmingly favours prominent racers who can track and pounce, rather than true closers who will find themselves neither in front nor with the room to come from behind.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Swagger Leads, Prominent Pounce
57% probability
If Liam Swagger dictates a controlled solo lead and prominent horses track comfortably into the straight.
If Liam Swagger dictates a controlled solo lead and prominent horses track comfortably into the straight.
UnterbergVlhovaFlying FortressThatwilldoso
B
Pace Collapse, Swagger Fades
20% probability
If Liam Swagger's 422-day absence causes him to tire in the straight, gifting the race to the first wave of chasers.
If Liam Swagger's 422-day absence causes him to tire in the straight, gifting the race to the first wave of chasers.
UnterbergVlhovaThatwilldosoFollow Me
C
Midfield Closers Thread Through
14% probability
If the pace is genuinely slow, compressing the field and allowing lightly covered midfielders to weave through in the straight.
If the pace is genuinely slow, compressing the field and allowing lightly covered midfielders to weave through in the straight.
SonoranAmplitudeFollow MeGrey Leader
D
True Hold-Ups Overcome Disadvantage
9% probability
If Sir Jeremy, Sinbad My Dad, or Blackjack Hills find clear daylight and produce a sustained late run despite racing out of their natural role.
If Sir Jeremy, Sinbad My Dad, or Blackjack Hills find clear daylight and produce a sustained late run despite racing out of their natural role.
Sir JeremySinbad My DadBlackjack HillsAmplitude
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Liam Swagger's 422-day absence is the pivotal fitness question — if he ties up in the final furlong, the race is blown wide open for the prominent trackers immediately behind him, making Unterberg and Flying Fortress dangerous.
WATCH
Unterberg has won three of his last four but all on Stanmore going — watch for any signs of him finding Good turf at Roscommon an entirely different surface, particularly on a flat track that rewards a genuine stride.
WATCH
The weight of hold-up types — Sir Jeremy, Sinbad My Dad, Blackjack Hills, Sonoran, Amplitude — all trying to close from a congested midfield creates a real risk of a traffic problem in the straight; watch for any runner getting boxed in at a critical point.
NOTE
Flying Fortress runs in blinkers for Gavin Cromwell, whose 14-day strike rate (1/19) flags stable form — the headgear change in a race where a prominent position is freely available makes him a horse to monitor early in running.
NOTE
Thatwilldoso has the best surface-specific record in the field (3W 6P from 15 Good/Soft runs) and ran only 8 days ago — quick turnarounds can suit fit horses in handicap company, and his proximity to the pace in a race with one lone front-runner is a tactical advantage worth noting.
8:00 — Watch Racing TV Irish EBF Lenebane Stakes (Listed)
1m4f · Good · LST · 8 runners
Lead contested: Counting Coup v DreamkeeperHISTORIC
How it ran
Bosphorus Rose and Counting Coup led, as the map showed.
Bosphorus Rose won at 5.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Counting CoupDreamkeeper
Prominent · 3
Chally ChuteStarfordShaool
Midfield · 2
Bosphorus RoseAbbey Actress
Hold Up · 1
Kalixa
Counting Coup and Dreamkeeper are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the lead from the outset over this 1m4f trip, creating a genuine, honest gallop on good ground at Roscommon. Counting Coup, fresh off a win 10 days ago, will push for the front rail, while Dreamkeeper — carrying a featherweight 119lbs as the sole 3-year-old — will be equally aggressive under Chris Hayes, ensuring neither can bowl along unchallenged. The resulting pace is likely to be true and sustained, which on good ground over this distance classically stretches the field and favours horses who can travel smoothly in behind before delivering a measured late effort — making the prominent-to-midfield stalker the most advantaged profile. Bosphorus Rose and Abbey Actress are true prominent racers who are unlikely to secure their natural position in a field that already has Chally Chute, Starford and Shaool occupying the principal prominent slots; Chally Chute and Starford, with their superior ORs and course-form, are the likeliest to establish those berths.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Honest Pace, Stalkers Win
54% probability
If Counting Coup and Dreamkeeper set a genuine, pressed gallop that stretches the field from the first half-mile.
If Counting Coup and Dreamkeeper set a genuine, pressed gallop that stretches the field from the first half-mile.
Chally ChuteStarfordShaoolBosphorus Rose
B
Front-Runner Gallops Clear
22% probability
If one front-runner (most likely Counting Coup) edges the contest for the lead and is allowed to dictate at a measured, uncontested tempo.
If one front-runner (most likely Counting Coup) edges the contest for the lead and is allowed to dictate at a measured, uncontested tempo.
Counting CoupDreamkeeperChally ChuteStarford
C
Class Comes From Midfield
16% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to soften the leaders and the higher-rated horses midfield produce a decisive run in the final two furlongs.
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to soften the leaders and the higher-rated horses midfield produce a decisive run in the final two furlongs.
ShaoolBosphorus RoseChally ChuteStarford
D
Hold-Up Horse Pounces Late
8% probability
If the pace implodes or collapses dramatically and the field concertinas, allowing a late run from deep to get to the line.
If the pace implodes or collapses dramatically and the field concertinas, allowing a late run from deep to get to the line.
KalixaDreamkeeperAbbey ActressBosphorus Rose
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Counting Coup or Dreamkeeper seizes a clear early lead at the start — if one edges ahead unchallenged in the first two furlongs, the race shape shifts markedly toward Scenario B.
WATCH
Bosphorus Rose and Abbey Actress are true prominent horses who will be forced wider and further back than natural — watch their position at the first bend; if either slots in closer than expected, their chance improves significantly beyond their STYLE_FIT discount.
WATCH
Kalixa is 271 days absent and her trainer is 0/13 in the past 14 days — watch the market for any unusual support, which could indicate a stable confidence play, though form analysis alone warrants caution.
NOTE
Starford's 53-day absence for Joseph O'Brien is worth monitoring in the betting; the McMonagle booking is a positive signal and O'Brien horses often arrive fresh but fit — any market move here is meaningful.
NOTE
The going has been consistently Good across all reported races at Roscommon tonight including both runs over 1m4f, confirming a true, reliable surface with no hidden variance to distort the pace map.
8:30 — Ladies Day At Roscommon On Monday, 6th July, 2026 Maiden
1m4f · Good · MDN · 16 runners
Boujee likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Seti One led; the map had Boujee in front.
Ashikita won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Quint MajorLauro's LegendIt's Good To TalkGrennanstown LadyDouble Indian
Boujee is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 16-runner maiden over 1m4f on good ground at Roscommon, and with no identified rival willing or able to contest the lead, she is set to dictate a controlled, uncontested gallop from the front. Steel Cut, Cracking Cloud and Taj Crown are the nearest prominent types and will likely track Boujee in the early stages, but none carries the profile to force a genuine test on the leader. With the pace sustainable rather than pressured, the race is likely to develop into a mid-race cruise before a steadier finish-line sprint, which tilts the tactical advantage firmly toward horses who can sit close to the pace and quicken over the last two furlongs — prominent racers and handy midfielders are best placed, while true hold-up horses face an uphill task producing their finish against a compressed field. The field holds significantly more hold-up types than the map can honestly place at the rear — Black Heather, Ashikita, Seti One, Elman and Sioux Grit are all genuine closers who will be shuffled into midfield positions they do not naturally want, meaning their finishing kicks may arrive too late off a slow-turning pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Boujee Leads, Prompt Surge
52% probability
If Boujee controls an uncontested lead throughout and the race is decided by those tracking her from prominent positions.
If Boujee controls an uncontested lead throughout and the race is decided by those tracking her from prominent positions.
Steel CutTaj CrownCracking CloudCoolnagrattan
B
Front Runner Fades Late
22% probability
If Boujee's long absence (335 days since last run, 25 days since jockey last rode) catches up and she weakens in the closing stages.
If Boujee's long absence (335 days since last run, 25 days since jockey last rode) catches up and she weakens in the closing stages.
Taj CrownSteel CutCracking CloudGrennanstown Lady
C
Hold-Up Horse Threads Through
16% probability
If the pace collapses late enough to create a proper gaps-opening finish and a genuine closer manages to thread a path.
If the pace collapses late enough to create a proper gaps-opening finish and a genuine closer manages to thread a path.
Black HeatherAshikitaQuint MajorGrennanstown Lady
D
Pace Lifts, Strong Stayer Wins
10% probability
If a runner with genuine stamina reserves proves superior when a faster-than-expected pace is injected by the prominent types chasing Boujee.
If a runner with genuine stamina reserves proves superior when a faster-than-expected pace is injected by the prominent types chasing Boujee.
CoolnagrattanGrennanstown LadyLauro's LegendQuint Major
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Boujee's 335-day absence is the dominant risk factor — if she weakens sharply after the half-mile marker rather than just the final furlong, the race could collapse into chaos behind her with Steel Cut and Taj Crown scrambling to fill the space.
WATCH
Steel Cut (hood, 10 days fresh) and Taj Crown (visor, 11 days) both wear headgear that suggests they can be lit up in the early stages — if either chases Boujee harder than expected and turns this into a more genuine gallop, hold-up horses may get a fairer test than the pace map implies.
WATCH
The sheer density of hold-up horses redistributed into midfield — Black Heather, Ashikita, Elman, Seti One, Sioux Grit — creates a significant traffic risk in the straight; watch for a logjam as multiple hold-up types simultaneously request a gap that does not exist.
NOTE
Coolnagrattan's single career run was over 2m on good ground in a bumper-adjacent context — Seamie Heffernan takes the ride for a lightly raced yard, and any improvement from experience could be substantial on a step back to 1m4f.
NOTE
Catherine Magennis has attracted Dylan Browne McMonagle despite having only one career start — monitor market movement at the off, as the jockey booking is disproportionately strong for a horse with almost no public form.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.