Archive›Roscommon · 31 August 2026

Roscommon

31 August 2026 · 7 races

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4:50 — Irish EBF Median Sires Series Race

7½f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners

4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Joga Bonito and Lars Soldier led, as the map showed.

South Dakota won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

PanhandleRuler's ControlFull VolumeJoga Bonito

Prominent · 2

The Long HaulLars Soldier

Midfield · 2

WunderschonCudawudashuda

Hold Up · 1

South Dakota

Panhandle, Full Volume, and Joga Bonito are all confirmed front-runners who will immediately contest the early lead over Roscommon's 7½f, creating a genuinely contested gallop from the off — Ruler's Control adds a fourth pace presence, ensuring no one gets a soft lead or dictates from a crawl. This multi-horse battle for the front over the first two furlongs will burn energy among those leadres, stretching the field and ensuring the pace is unrelenting rather than tactical; at 7½f on Good turf, that is enough to put genuine stamina under the microscope. Lars Soldier and The Long Haul are likely to sit just behind the friction point, with South Dakota and the unknown quantities Cudawudashuda and Wunderschon tracking from midfield or off the pace. The race shape strongly favours hold-up and late-finishing profiles — horses who can switch off in the early chaos, conserve energy, and produce a sustained run in the final two furlongs will be best served by what this contested pace creates.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse, Closers Pounce

48% probability

If the four-way pace battle burns out the leaders before the turn, releasing the late-runners into a clear advantage.

Full Volume, Joga Bonito, and Ruler's Control gut each other setting a fierce gallop, leaving them spent in the straight as South Dakota and Cudawudashuda sweep through on fresh legs. At 7½f, the distance is long enough for hold-up types to mow down a field that has over-exerted itself in the opening half of the race.

South DakotaCudawudashudaWunderschonJoga Bonito

One Leader Clears Early

27% probability

If one of the front-runners — most likely Full Volume or Joga Bonito — gets a split-second jump and dictates at a controlled pace while rivals cancel each other out.

Full Volume, who won over this distance and goes on Good, or Joga Bonito, who has the strongest recent form having won last time, could slip into a rhythm on the front end if the others tangle in a speed duel. A horse sitting a length or two off the early pace leader at a comfortable clip, such as Lars Soldier, could also benefit from any brief lull.

Full VolumeJoga BonitoLars SoldierRuler's Control

Prominent Sits Perfect

17% probability

If the early pace is fierce but not suicidal, and a horse just off the leaders tracks through into a winning position without exhausting itself in early traffic.

Lars Soldier or The Long Haul, sitting just behind the early duel in a prominent position, could inherit the race if the lead horses run each other into the ground at a pace that is fast but not extreme. A prominent runner who avoids the worst of the early battle and hits the straight in the first two has a clear positional advantage.

Lars SoldierThe Long HaulFull VolumeJoga Bonito

Outsider Defies Logic

8% probability

If the pace implodes spectacularly early and one of the lightly-raced unknowns, Cudawudashuda or Wunderschon, produces a career-best from the back.

Colin Keane on Cudawudashuda (OR=120, only one run) is well-placed by the handicapper on a single outing and could be ahead of his mark, swooping late if the field ties itself up. Wunderschon, similarly unexposed, represents a second unknown quantity for trainer Harrington who also saddles Full Volume, though both remain deeply speculative on limited evidence.

CudawudashudaWunderschonSouth DakotaLars Soldier

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch the opening two furlongs closely — if Panhandle, Full Volume, Joga Bonito, and Ruler's Control all commit to leading, the resulting friction will almost certainly produce a falsely fast early pace that decimates their finishing reserves, making the pace collapse in Scenario A the single most dangerous development in this race.

WATCH

Full Volume (Shane Foley) and Joga Bonito (W J Lee) are the two front-runners with genuine recent form — if either manages to soften the early pace by out-smarting the others in the first furlong and settling into a rhythm, they become significantly more dangerous than the contested-pace scenario suggests.

WATCH

South Dakota's hold-up style suits this race shape perfectly but Wayne Lordan will need to find daylight late from the back of a nine-runner field — any traffic trouble at Roscommon's turning straight could cost her the run she needs.

NOTE

Colin Keane's booking on Cudawudashuda stands out for a horse with one run and an OR of 120 — Keane rarely accepts rides without purpose and connections may know significantly more about this horse's ability than the bare form reveals.

NOTE

Panhandle's "fades in finish" tag combined with OR=120 and back-to-back last-place finishes suggests this horse is carrying a weight-for-age OR rather than a competitive mark — monitor in the market to see if any significant money confirms otherwise or if this is simply a make-weight pace influence.

5:25 — Elphin Handicap

7½f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Brains likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sunday Sovereign led; the map had Brains in front.

Phoenix Pairc won at 8.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Brains

Prominent · 2

WhatswrongnowSunday Sovereign

Midfield · 10

Glen BreezeGordon BennettDistillateJames HenryQueen Of NewarkTamazuOitentinhaBullet BourbonLa CampanellaDraiocht

Hold Up · 5

Phoenix PaircGivehertilxmasCisternaShamankaAngel Of Promise

Brains is the lone confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner field and, crucially, faces no direct rival likely to press hard for the lead from the outset, meaning a genuinely sustainable gallop is the probable outcome over Roscommon's flat 7½f. With only Whatswrongnow and Sunday Sovereign as secondary prominent types, Brains can dictate comfortably at a tempo that keeps the field strung out without burning off early reserves. The going is a consistent Good throughout the card, favouring horses that travel economically and have the cruising speed to close ground through the final two furlongs rather than those needing an extreme burn-up to set up a late swoop. This race shape therefore most benefits prominent-to-midfield runners with proven Good-ground form who can sit just behind a single uncontested leader and strike from a position of control — pure hold-up horses at the back will be disadvantaged by the modest gallop. A large number of runners listed in midfield are genuine hold-up types — Glen Breeze, Gordon Bennett, Distillate, James Henry, and several others — who have been redistributed forward on the map only because the field carries too many closers to all find their natural position; of those, Glen Breeze and Distillate are most likely to actually push closer than their usual spot given their natural inclination to race prominently.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Brains Controls; Prominent Wins

48% probability

If Brains leads uncontested at a fair pace and the race develops into a test of cruising speed rather than a stamina grind.

Brains sets a calm fractions through the first half of the race, allowing the two or three horses immediately behind to travel comfortably and strike when the tempo lifts entering the final two furlongs; on Good ground at this trip the runner sitting second or third has a clear positional edge.

WhatswrongnowCisternaGlen BreezeDistillate

Pace Drifts; Closers Pounce

22% probability

If Brains sets an overly steady early tempo and the field concertinas, allowing genuine hold-up horses to close the gap entering the straight.

A very slow early pace compresses the field and removes Brains's advantage, giving the best horses in the race a fair run regardless of position; those with the highest RPR and best recent Good-ground form get the best of this.

GivehertilxmasPhoenix PaircCisternaShamanka

Mid-Race Surge; Midfield Types Benefit

19% probability

If one of the redistributed prominent types pushes forward and injects a sharper middle-sectional pace, fragmenting the field before the home turn.

A contested or quickening middle portion strings the field out and the runners who travelled best without expending energy fighting for position land in the prime spots turning in; horses with strong Good-ground profiles and a history of winning from just off the pace are best placed.

Glen BreezeDistillateWhatswrongnowCisterna

Chaotic Pace; Market Movers Late

11% probability

If the large field causes a bunched start and multiple runners push for position through the early stages, creating a messy tempo.

Runners caught wide or blocked in the early stages struggle to recover their rhythm on a flat, right-handed track that offers few hiding places; the only beneficiaries are horses with exceptional tactical speed who avoid early traffic and arrive late with a clear run.

GivehertilxmasShamankaPhoenix PaircAngel Of Promise

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Brains's early position is everything — if he misses the break or is pushed wide by the 18-runner draw, the entire pace map collapses and the projected controlled pace becomes uncertain; watch the stalls closely.

WATCH

Glen Breeze and Distillate are natural prominent types squeezed into midfield on the map — if either pushes forward aggressively in the first furlong, they could inject an unplanned mid-race surge and compromise the chances of horses who rely on a steady tempo.

WATCH

The absence of a declared jockey for Gordon Bennett is a flag; a late change or unknown tactical instruction on an 8-year-old hold-up horse could create unpredictable early movement from a runner near the rear of an already crowded 18-strong field.

NOTE

Tamazu returns from 361 days off and, regardless of how the pace unfolds, represents a significant fitness question that could cause interference if the horse is ring-rusty in the early stages of a tightly-packed field.

NOTE

Whatswrongnow stepping up to 7½f from recent 5-6f efforts is worth monitoring in the straight — if stamina gives out approaching the final furlong, a horse sitting just behind could be hampered by a rapidly weakening rival mid-track.

5:55 — Lidan Handicap

7½f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Punica Granatum to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mercurial and Tokyo Treasure led; the map had Punica Granatum in front.

Goal Exceeded won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Punica Granatum

Prominent · 5

Eddie GEngines OnTokyo TreasureEarlsMerisi Diamond

Midfield · 3

MercurialNinth CrusadeHighbury See See

Hold Up · 4

GavooPlume NoireMorehamptonGoal Exceeded

Punica Granatum is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner 7½f Roscommon handicap and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, Shane Foley can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good ground that plays squarely to a prominent or tracking profile. Eddie G, Engines On, Earls, and Tokyo Treasure will all seek to press close to the pace, meaning the early order directly behind the leader will be competitive and physical, with several horses shuffled back from their natural positions. The field contains more prominent-minded types than can realistically secure that ground — Mercurial is a confirmed prominent racer who will be squeezed toward midfield — while Highbury See See and Ninth Crusade, both genuine hold-up horses, are also mapped to midfield but will race from further back than their notation suggests. With one honest pace-setter controlling the race and Good ground ensuring consistent underfoot conditions throughout, this shape heavily favours horses who can sit just off the leader in the first three or four positions and produce a sustained run from two furlongs out — prominent trackers with a turn of foot on Good ground are the profile to beat.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Punica Sets, Trackers Win

57% probability

If Punica Granatum leads at a fair clip and the prominently-placed horses behind settle and pounce from two out.

Punica Granatum's uncontested lead creates an honest, even gallop that rewards horses travelling comfortably just behind — those in positions two through four will hit the rising ground fresh and kick on.

Eddie GEarlsTokyo TreasureGoal Exceeded

Steady Gallop, Leader Holds

21% probability

If Punica Granatum controls the pace so efficiently that the lead is never truly surrendered and the field is strung out behind.

A controlled fractions race on Good ground suits a relaxed front-runner and Foley may simply never be headed if the challengers use too much energy jockeying for tracking positions.

Punica GranatumEddie GEarlsGoal Exceeded

Midfield Closers Pick Up

14% probability

If the pace is genuinely brisk enough in the first half to stop the prominent horses and the closers from midfield sustain a strong late run.

Goal Exceeded and Gavoo, holding course form on Good ground, would be the chief beneficiaries of any late collapse of those up with the pace.

Goal ExceededGavooMorehamptonNinth Crusade

Pace Collapse, Hold-Ups Land

8% probability

If the front runners set an unusually fast gallop that burns off the prominent horses and leaves late closers with most ground to make up but most to gain.

This is structurally unlikely given only one true front-runner, and depends on redistributed hold-up types Ninth Crusade and Highbury See See racing closer to their natural style than the map suggests, which is improbable given the field size.

Ninth CrusadeHighbury See SeeMorehamptonGavoo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Engines On ran just 2 days ago — monitor its paddock condition and early movement closely, as a six-year-old returning on a 48-hour turnaround on Good ground is a significant physical ask.

WATCH

Punica Granatum's gallop tempo in the first three furlongs will define the entire race — if Foley steals an uncontested lead at a crawl, horses like Earls and Eddie G tracking close must be sharp enough to respond early rather than wait.

WATCH

Mercurial and Ninth Crusade are both likely to end up racing out of their most effective positions given the density of prominent and hold-up types in this field — watch how both jockeys (Heffernan, Keane) navigate the first furlong to see if either can claim a more natural berth.

NOTE

Plume Noire's 352-day absence means its early behaviour in the parade ring and at the start is worth monitoring — a hold-up horse returning cold after nearly a year is vulnerable to blowing its race before the gates open.

NOTE

Goal Exceeded has won and placed multiple times at this trip on Good ground and is the hold-up runner with the most convincing case for a late run — watch its position entering the final two furlongs as the key timing indicator for the closers' scenario.

6:25 — Lecarrow Race

1m2½f · Good · DEFAULT · 5 runners

Handshake likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dial Me In led; the map had Handshake in front.

Hazdann won at 2.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Handshake

Prominent · 1

Hazdann

Midfield · 2

SinmaraGod Of Power

Hold Up · 1

Dial Me In

Handshake is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with only five runners and no genuine challenger for the lead, is set to bowl along at a controlled, uncontested gallop from the outset. Hazdann will press from a prominent position just off the leader, while God Of Power and Sinmara — both natural prominent types — are pushed back into a midfield role they would not naturally choose, meaning the pace ahead of the closers is not as deep as the headcount of prominent-style runners might suggest. Dial Me In will settle at the rear and will need Handshake to either go hard enough to set up a finishing kick or fade in the straight. This field holds more front-running and prominent types than the race shape can accommodate; Hazdann is best placed to secure the position closest to Handshake, with God Of Power and Sinmara likely shuffled further back than ideal. The race shape strongly favours a horse that can travel prominently at a controlled tempo and sustain its effort around the turn into the straight — a profile that suits Hazdann and, to a lesser extent, Handshake itself if it can control fractions and quicken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Handshake Controls Unchallenged

68% probability

If Handshake dictates a comfortable, uncontested pace and arrives at the straight with reserves intact.

Handshake, with no rival willing or able to press it, sets a fractions-controlled tempo that turns the race into a test of class and stamina in the straight; Hazdann, travelling prominently throughout, is ideally placed to challenge but Handshake's class advantage (OR 120) makes it hard to peg back.

HandshakeHazdannGod Of PowerSinmara

Prominent Stalker Pounces

17% probability

If Handshake's early pace proves just sufficient to drain it and Hazdann sweeps past in the straight.

Hazdann, settled just off the leader's shoulder throughout, has the fitness to sustain a challenge having won on this going at 7f; the trip extension to 1m2½f on Good ground suits a horse who has already won at 7f on Good.

HazdannGod Of PowerSinmaraDial Me In

Closers Finish Into Places

9% probability

If Handshake cuts a fraction too brisk for a small field and Dial Me In or displaced midfielders get a late run.

Dial Me In has placed at 10f on Good going and can finish strongly if the pace collapses in the straight, though its recent form (0 in last run) gives concern; God Of Power and Sinmara, racing out of role in midfield, would need a genuine test of stamina to compensate for their unnatural position.

Dial Me InSinmaraGod Of PowerHazdann

Pace Collapse Muddled Finish

6% probability

If Handshake's fractions slow dramatically and the race bunches entering the straight, creating a sprint finish.

A sprint-like finish over 1m2½f on Good ground would scramble the form, though no horse in this field stands out as a specialist for a truly compressed finish; God Of Power's one-off winning form at 7f on Good is the best match here if pace collapses suddenly.

God Of PowerSinmaraHazdannDial Me In

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Handshake's early sectionals — if Scott McCullagh allows a completely uncontested crawl, the race may be decided by a sprint in the straight that favours class over pace shape, handing Handshake a near-unassailable advantage.

WATCH

God Of Power and Sinmara are both natural prominent types who cannot get their preferred position — monitor whether either applies pressure to Handshake in the early stages or accepts a passive midfield role that blunts their chance.

WATCH

Hazdann's 85-day absence for D K Weld is worth tracking in-running; if the horse travels freely early it suggests fitness is not an issue, but any signs of greenness or fatigue on the turn will matter.

NOTE

Dial Me In requires a genuine pace in a five-runner field to get competitive — if the race is run at a dawdle from Handshake, Declan McDonogh's hold-up tactics will find the straight too short to make meaningful ground.

6:55 — Racing Here Again On September 28th Maiden

1m4f · Good · MDN · 19 runners

Mawhibah to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Miss Romagna and Cosmetic led; the map had Mawhibah in front.

Miss Romagna won at 8.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mawhibah

Prominent · 5

Plug In HybridCoolnagrattanAlmazannMiss RomagnaShemiyka

Midfield · 7

Purple BanditNemorinoMichinagaKigalienneFour BallDaily WonderI Hope You Dance

Hold Up · 6

ShambataNugentstown SueNothingbutadreamMetallicGentle SodaCosmetic

Mawhibah is the lone confirmed front-runner in a 19-runner maiden over 1m4f at Roscommon, and with no other genuine pace challenger likely to press her from the front, she is set to control this race at a measured, sustainable gallop on Good ground. Coolnagrattan, Almazann, Miss Romagna, Plug In Hybrid, and Shemiyka will look to track close behind in the prominent group, creating a compact early order but no real headlong gallop. The large hold-up contingent — Nothingbutadream, Nugentstown Sue, Cosmetic, Shambata, Metallic, Gentle Soda — will be racing from well off the pace, and with I Hope You Dance redistributed to midfield because the rear of the field is already saturated with hold-up types, true closers will need a strong pace to bring them into play; that pace is unlikely to materialise. This race shape most favours prominent-racing types who can sit a length or two off Mawhibah's controlled fractions and pick up sharply in the straight, rather than horses whose wins depend on a strong tempo dragging them into contention from the back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Mawhibah Controls, Prominent Pounce

54% probability

If Mawhibah dictates a steady pace unchallenged and the prominent group tracks efficiently before quickening in the straight.

Mawhibah sets a comfortable tempo, never pressured, and the race becomes a test of quality in the final two furlongs rather than stamina; horses who have tracked within two or three lengths the whole way are ideally placed to strike. Almazann's consistent placed form at this trip on Good and Coolnagrattan's similar-going experience make them the most likely to finish over the top.

AlmazannCoolnagrattanMiss RomagnaPlug In Hybrid

Front Runner Stays On

22% probability

If Mawhibah's controlled fractions allow her to conserve enough energy to repel challengers in the straight on Good going.

With no rival forcing a genuine test, Mawhibah's lead is never threatened early and she simply extends her advantage into the final furlong on minimal reserves; Joseph Patrick O'Brien's in-form yard (T14: 12/71) adds significant confidence to the hold-on scenario. Miss Romagna and Coolnagrattan represent the most likely chasing threats.

MawhibahMiss RomagnaCoolnagrattanAlmazann

Unknown Debutants Dominate

14% probability

If one or more of the lightly raced unknown quantities — Purple Bandit, Nemorino, Kigalienne, or Daily Wonder — possesses undetected class and strikes from an unexposed position.

Maidens at this trip regularly produce a debut or lightly raced winner who bypasses the tactical battle entirely; Shane Foley on Purple Bandit or Henry De Bromhead's Nemorino represent the most credible unknown threats given connections. Their going assessments are unknown, which adds uncertainty, but unexposed types regularly land big-field maidens.

Purple BanditNemorinoKigalienneDaily Wonder

Closers Pounce Late

10% probability

If an unexpected injection of pace mid-race stretches the field and allows hold-up horses to motor through on the bridle.

This is the least likely shape given Mawhibah's uncontested lead and the overcrowded hold-up contingent; I Hope You Dance, though a genuine hold-up type, is running out of its natural rear position and the style-fit discount (0.92) meaningfully reduces its chance of delivering in this scenario. Cosmetic, backed by Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Wayne Lordan, is the truest closer to consider if the pace surprisingly heats up.

CosmeticI Hope You DanceShambataNothingbutadream

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Almazann has placed second in every career start on Good ground and her prominent style puts her perfectly in the slipstream of Mawhibah — if she travels well into the straight, she is the biggest threat to the front runner.

WATCH

Mawhibah sets the entire tempo of this race unchallenged; if she is allowed a soft lead and finds an extra gear off the home bend, the race could be over before closers from the hold-up group get organised.

WATCH

Purple Bandit and Nemorino are both debutants from well-regarded yards (Harrington, De Bromhead) with completely unknown profiles — watch early market moves on either, as stable confidence could signal something the data cannot.

NOTE

The hold-up group (Nothingbutadream, Nugentstown Sue, Gentle Soda, Metallic) is unusually large for this race shape and all are flagged as faders; if Mawhibah sets a slow pace, this entire cohort is likely to be flattering to deceive in the straight.

NOTE

I Hope You Dance is a true hold-up type racing from a midfield map position due to overcrowding at the rear — its style-fit discount means any prominent finish should be viewed with that context in mind rather than as confirmation of tactical versatility.

7:25 — Oran Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners

Stellar Moment to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Merlin The Wizard led; the map had Stellar Moment in front.

Letiza won at 8.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

4 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stellar Moment

Prominent · 3

YoucansaythatagainRoyal SaxoNeptunes Staircase

Midfield · 9

Lord AusZoffmanFlying FortressFaro IslandLetizaRyefield DasherSummer SnowDuke Of LeggaghL'Un Deux Trois

Hold Up · 6

SuperficialSea EagleThyerFratasMerlin The WizardAdel

Stellar Moment is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 19-horse field and, crucially, faces no meaningful pace pressure from any rival capable of matching her to the lead — Neptunes Staircase and Youcansaythatagain are the only two genuine prominent types, meaning Stellar Moment should dictate a controlled, unchallenged gallop from the outset over this 1m4f trip on good ground. With no horse willing or able to collar her early, the pace is likely to be honest rather than scorching, producing a steady-to-moderate tempo that compresses the field behind her and dramatically reduces the advantage of coming from off the pace. This race shape — one leader, two chasers, and a mass of hold-up horses — classically rewards those who can sit close enough in the first half-dozen lengths to pounce in the straight rather than those making up significant ground from the rear. The field is severely overloaded with hold-up types: Lord Aus, Zoffman, Flying Fortress, Faro Island, Letiza, Ryefield Dasher, Summer Snow, Duke Of Leggagh and L'Un Deux Trois cannot all find their natural position at the rear and several will inevitably be pushed into midfield out of role; of these, Lord Aus and Faro Island are most likely to secure a forward berth than their redistribution implies. This race shape firmly favours the prominent racing profile — horses positioned two to five lengths off Stellar Moment's uncontested lead will be ideally placed to strike when she comes back to them in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stellar Moment Leads Wire-To-Wire

48% probability

If Stellar Moment bowls along at a moderate, controlled tempo and no rival has the pace or inclination to seriously pressurise her at any stage.

Unchallenged on the front end, she dictates every fraction, conserves energy through the middle portion of the race, and the strong stayers trying to close from midfield simply run out of real estate on a tight finish.

Stellar MomentNeptunes StaircaseYoucansaythatagainRoyal Saxo

Prominent Racer Pounces Late

30% probability

If the pace is just brisk enough that Stellar Moment flattens out in the final two furlongs, enabling a sitting prominent horse to pick her off.

Neptunes Staircase or Youcansaythatagain, travelling close to the pace without excess effort, inherit the lead inside the final furlong and prove too strong for backmarkers unable to generate a sustained run.

Neptunes StaircaseYoucansaythatagainMerlin The WizardThyer

Hold-Up Flyer Weaves Through

14% probability

If the pace is genuinely strong enough that the front two or three tie each other up and the final furlong becomes a true stamina test that benefits a fresh closer.

A horse that managed to find genuine cover near midfield — most likely Lord Aus or Faro Island, who despite redistribution may secure a position with enough daylight — threads through the weakening leaders.

Lord AusFaro IslandThyerSuperficial

Chaos Scrambles The Result

8% probability

If the large 19-runner field produces crowding, traffic problems or a pace collapse that reshuffles positions unpredictably in the straight.

With so many hold-up horses forced out of their natural role and jostling for position, a horse that flukes a clean passage — such as Merlin The Wizard or Thyer — could benefit from others being baulked or forced wide.

Merlin The WizardThyerSea EagleLetiza

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stellar Moment sets all the fractions unchallenged — watch whether Rory Mulligan (5lb claimer) adopts a truly patient front-running rhythm or over-quickens early in a 19-runner field, as the entire race shape hinges on the pace she supplies.

KEY

Neptunes Staircase is 156 days absent and Colin Keane must place him immediately behind the leader — if the big field crowds Keane out in the early stages and Neptunes Staircase loses his prominent position, his chance is materially damaged.

WATCH

Lord Aus and Faro Island are listed as redistributed hold-up types but Ben Coen and Gary Carroll respectively are capable of manufacturing a forward berth — watch their positions at the first bend, as either stealing a prominent spot transforms their winning chance significantly.

WATCH

With 19 runners, the mid-race bunching between the 6f and 10f marks could cause significant crowding for the cluster of hold-up horses forced into midfield out of role — Zoffman, Flying Fortress and Letiza are all vulnerable to being trapped on the inner with no room when the pace inevitably quickens.

NOTE

Youcansaythatagain (W J Lee) is the youngest runner at 3 and lightly raced — watch whether he settles naturally

7:55 — Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners

Sir Trancealot likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Canon Law led; the map had Sir Trancealot in front.

Priorstown won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.

3 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sir Trancealot

Prominent · 1

Ravens Can Fly

Midfield · 11

Premier PrincessPrincess RosieEllens BayCaptain ConFlagstone LadyAugusta RockNosmokewithoutfireTintinabullaMinella BuoyElzaam ExpressCurious Jane

Hold Up · 6

WipeawayyourtearsPriorstownNathemaGlen EchoOh I Do DeclareCanon Law

Sir Trancealot is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 19-runner field over 1m4f at Roscommon on Good ground, meaning he is likely to bowl along at a controlled, unhurried tempo with nobody to genuinely pressure him through the early stages. Ravens Can Fly is a prominent-type who may attempt to sit just behind, but with a field this large and only one true pace-setter, the gallop is expected to be steady rather than searching, compressing the field into a bunched convoy through the middle of the race. The race will likely ignite in the straight as those tracking closer to the pace look to quicken, while genuine hold-up horses stuck wide or deep in traffic will face a stiff challenge manufacturing the necessary momentum. This shape strongly favours runners with the tactical speed to travel in the first five or six, as a falsely-run race at this trip on Good ground consistently rewards those who can sit within striking range and kick off a moderate tempo — true closers operating from the back will find the lack of an honest pace insufficient to reel in those dictating up front. Several runners tagged as redistributed — including Premier Princess, Captain Con, Ellens Bay, Augusta Rock, Flagstone Lady, Nosmokewithoutfire, Tintinabulla, Minella Buoy, Princess Rosie, Elzaam Express, and Curious Jane — are genuine hold-up types squeezed into the midfield section of the map because the rear of the field is oversubscribed; of these, Premier Princess and Augusta Rock are most likely to physically secure a position closer to the pace than their natural style suggests.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Pace, Stalkers Strike

48% probability

If Sir Trancealot sets a sustainable tempo unchallenged and the race ignites only in the straight.

Sir Trancealot dictates from the front at a moderate clip, allowing the closest pursuers to travel comfortably and pounce with a decisive turn of foot in the final two furlongs; the lack of genuine pace pressure means those who have been sitting three to five lengths off the lead throughout hold a decisive advantage over deep closers.

Canon LawWipeawayyourtearsGlen EchoAugusta Rock

Front Runner Gallops Clear

22% probability

If Sir Trancealot is left entirely to his own devices and the pace is so uncontested that he steals a march without the field realising.

With no challenger pushing him early, Sir Trancealot finds a rhythm and simply never comes back to the field, as a disorganised chase from a big field on a flat track fails to coordinate a meaningful challenge; this scenario rewards the bold front-running ride and penalises the fragmented hold-up brigade.

Sir TrancealotRavens Can FlyPriorstownGlen Echo

Midfield Sweeper Emerges

20% probability

If the pace is truly falsely run and a horse sitting in fifth to eighth position produces a sustained, well-timed run from two furlongs out.

A slow-motion race bunches the entire field, negating Sir Trancealot's stamina advantage and allowing a fresh, well-positioned midfield runner to quicken past tired leaders as the pace finally lifts; those with good form at this trip on Good ground and a prominent enough position to avoid traffic emerge best.

Canon LawWipeawayyourtearsEllens BayAugusta Rock

Closers Pounce Late

10% probability

If the pace is surprisingly strong enough to string the field out and genuine hold-up horses find a clear run from the rear.

This scenario requires the field to fracture more than this single-pace-setter race shape suggests, giving true come-from-behind runners the gaps they need; given nearly all plausible closers here are redistributed hold-up types unlikely to achieve their natural position, this shape is structurally unlikely to reward the deepest-sitting runners.

Glen EchoMinella BuoyNathemaPriorstown

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sir Trancealot is the only confirmed front-runner in a field of 19 — if he is left completely alone by a passive field, monitor whether Seamie Heffernan allows him to dictate an artificially slow early pace that sets up a sprint finish, which could dramatically favour horses within three lengths of him entering the straight.

WATCH

Canon Law is the only runner to have won over 14f on Good ground in recent form — watch how Rory Cleary positions him in the early stages of a big field, as being caught wide or buried deep in a 19-runner convoy could neutralise what looks like the most directly relevant piece of form in the race.

WATCH

Wipeawayyourtears has the strongest sim-going record in the field (5/7) and won over 12f on Good — watch whether Gavin Ryan is able to manoeuvre from the hold-up position into a tracking spot by the turn, as the 49-day break and style mismatch with a slow pace are the key risks to monitor.

NOTE

With at least 10 runners redistributed from their natural hold-up positions, watch for congestion and interference entering the home straight — a 19-runner field at Roscommon over 1m4f with a single pace-setter is structurally susceptible to a chaotic final three furlongs as horses simultaneously try to quicken from mid-pack.

NOTE

Augusta Rock's trainer JP O'Brien is in strong 14-day form (12/71) and the horse finished second over 13f on Good

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 31 August 2026.

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