Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
5:18 — McNulty Furniture Rated Novice Hurdle
2m4f · Soft · NOV · 3 runners
Polepatrick likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Polepatrick led, as the map showed.
Chanceawetmorning won at 2.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Polepatrick
Prominent · 1
Chanceawetmorning
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 1
Berto Ramirez
Polepatrick will dictate terms as the sole natural front-runner in this small field, with Chanceawetmorning likely to track close behind given his prominent style. The lack of genuine pace pressure means Polepatrick can control fractions throughout the 2m4f journey on yielding to soft ground. Berto Ramirez will need to be produced late from his hold-up position but faces the challenge of making up ground on testing conditions. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can travel kindly and have first run on the leaders.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Polepatrick Controls Throughout
45% probability
If Polepatrick breaks well and faces no early pressure from the other prominent runner.
He can dictate comfortable fractions and use his class edge, having won impressively last time despite a 50-day absence. The step up to 2m4f plays to his strengths and Mike O'Connor can time his effort perfectly from the front.
PolepatrickChanceawetmorning
B
Chanceawetmorning Strikes Late
35% probability
If Chanceawetmorning travels strongly in behind Polepatrick and finds extra stamina at the trip.
His recent winning form for Gordon Elliott shows improved jumping and the 9-day turnaround suggests connections are confident. James Smith's 5lb claim helps significantly in a tight contest between these well-matched rivals.
ChanceawetmorningPolepatrick
C
Berto Ramirez From Rear
15% probability
If the pace becomes unsustainably fast between the two prominent runners in the testing conditions.
His hold-up style could prove advantageous if the leaders tie up, and he showed improved form when winning at Down Royal before running well in a rated hurdle. The 3lb claim from Aidan Kelly provides additional assistance.
Berto RamirezChanceawetmorning
D
Surprising Upset
5% probability
If jumping errors or tactical mishaps disrupt the expected running of the favourites.
The small field increases the chance of incidents affecting the outcome, particularly with amateur jockeys aboard two runners. Any fallers or mistakes could dramatically alter the complexion.
Berto RamirezChanceawetmorningPolepatrick
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch for any early jumping errors from Polepatrick as he leads, which could hand initiative to Chanceawetmorning.
WATCH
Monitor how well Chanceawetmorning travels in behind the leader given his 9-day turnaround from last race.
WATCH
Observe if Berto Ramirez can get into contention turning for home, as he needs the pace to collapse to be effective.
NOTE
Check if the soft ground causes any stamina issues in the closing stages given this is the longest trip for two runners.
NOTE
Watch for any confidence issues from the amateur jockeys aboard Chanceawetmorning and Berto Ramirez in a tactical finish.
5:48 — Dermot Hughes Car Sales Handicap Hurdle
2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners
Stede Bonnet likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Sequoiaspirit and Eye Of A Tiger led; the map had Stede Bonnet in front.
Sequoiaspirit won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Stede Bonnet
Prominent · 3
Lisnagar FortuneAvaloSequoiaspirit
Midfield · 4
RakkiOllie La Ba BaSimple ThingsEye Of A Tiger
Hold Up · 3
Billy Lee SwaggerDreal DealSir Allen
Stede Bonnet will lead early from his prominent style, with Sequoiaspirit, Rakki, Avalo and Ollie La Ba Ba likely to track him in the first half. The pace should be steady rather than cutthroat given only one natural leader, allowing the prominent runners to settle without pressure. From the back marker positions, Billy Lee Swagger, Dreal Deal, Sir Allen, Simple Things and Eye Of A Tiger will need the race to unfold at a searching gallop to close their deficits. This measured early pace strongly favours prominent runners who can position handy and have first run on the leaders turning for home.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
65% probability
If the pace stays steady through halfway allowing prominent runners to track comfortably
The handy horses get first run turning for home while hold-up horses struggle to make ground from too far back. Sequoiaspirit, Rakki and Avalo can all quicken from ideal positions.
SequoiaspiritAvaloRakkiStede Bonnet
B
Strong Gallop Suits Closers
20% probability
If Stede Bonnet sets a strong pace or prominent runners press him early
The searching gallop stretches the field and allows Billy Lee Swagger and Dreal Deal to close from the rear with their superior finishing kicks. Hold-up horses benefit from the stronger tempo.
Billy Lee SwaggerDreal DealSir AllenSimple Things
C
Leader Dominates Throughout
10% probability
If Stede Bonnet gets an uncontested lead and the field fails to close
The Gordon Elliott-trained leader uses his class advantage to control the race from pillar to post. His recent layoff becomes irrelevant if no pressure is applied early.
Stede BonnetLisnagar FortuneSequoiaspiritAvalo
D
Longshot Benefits From Chaos
5% probability
If the pace becomes stop-start or the favourites disappoint
Eye Of A Tiger or Simple Things can benefit from a messy race where class doesn't tell. The inconsistent pace plays into the hands of horses with less to lose.
Eye Of A TigerSimple ThingsOllie La Ba BaLisnagar Fortune
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Billy Lee Swagger and Dreal Deal need to see a strong early gallop to have any realistic chance from their hold-up styles
WATCH
Stede Bonnet's 87-day absence could tell in the finish despite his class advantage if pressed hard
NOTE
Sequoiaspirit's positioning early will reveal connections' confidence after disappointing recent hurdles efforts
WATCH
Sir Allen's fitness after 526-day hurdles absence remains a major question mark despite recent Flat success
NOTE
Simple Things' ability to get competitive from her hold-up style depends entirely on pace development
6:18 — McGowan Accountancy Services Novice Chase
2m½f · Soft · NOV · 8 runners
Workahead to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Workahead led, as the map showed.
Wild Bill Hickok won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Workahead
Prominent · 2
Talk In The ParkScalpnagoon
Midfield · 3
Bannow BlazeHaveigotnewsforyouPositive Energy
Hold Up · 2
Wild Bill HickokReiki Revolution
Workahead will make the running from the outset with no other confirmed pace angles in this field. Talk In The Park and Scalpnagoon may track in second and third early, but neither are aggressive pace forcers. The lack of early speed will create a pedestrian gallop through the early stages before the tempo lifts approaching the business end. This tactical setup strongly favors hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish, as the soft ground will punish those who go too early in what becomes a sprint finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Running
45% probability
If Workahead gets an easy lead and controls the tempo throughout
The proven front-runner can dictate fractions and kick clear when ready, making full use of his class advantage. His perfect chase debut form gives him every chance to repeat the dose over similar conditions.
WorkaheadTalk In The ParkWild Bill Hickok
B
Late Charge Prevails
30% probability
If the pace becomes too slow early and turns into a sprint finish
Hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks on the testing ground. Wild Bill Hickok's class and Reiki Revolution's fresh legs could prove decisive in a cavalry charge.
Wild Bill HickokReiki RevolutionScalpnagoonBannow Blaze
C
Jumping Errors Decide
15% probability
If the leader or main fancies make crucial mistakes at key fences
The race opens up for a horse who jumps cleanly throughout the contest. Talk In The Park's experience over fences becomes the decisive factor despite his poor strike rate.
Talk In The ParkScalpnagoonHaveigotnewsforyouPositive Energy
D
Outsider Surprise
10% probability
If the market leaders all underperform or encounter trouble in running
A lesser-rated horse who handles conditions perfectly springs a surprise at rewarding odds. Bannow Blaze bounces back from his unseating debut to show his true ability.
Bannow Blaze's jumping after unseating at the first fence on chase debut - any early mistake rules him out completely
WATCH
Workahead's jumping under pressure if challenged - needs to maintain his perfect fencing record to justify favoritism
WATCH
Talk In The Park's fitness after 134-day layoff despite going well fresh in the past
NOTE
Wild Bill Hickok's position turning in - needs to be within striking distance to use his proven finishing kick
NOTE
Market moves for Scalpnagoon or Reiki Revolution indicating stable confidence in their jumping improvement
6:48 — Bet With Tote.ie On Racing & Sports Connacht National Handicap Chase
3m1f · Soft · HCAP · 19 runners
Lead contested: Where's My Jet v Rocky's HowyaHISTORIC
How it ran
Where's My Jet and Rocky's Howya led, as the map showed.
Hermino AA won at 12.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently.
6 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Where's My JetRocky's Howya
Prominent · 8
Boston RoverWill DoBartlemy BoyKillaney KingGoody Four ShoesHermino AAHarbour HighwayDorking Cock
Midfield · 3
Born BrightSmallcraftwarningPrince Palace
Hold Up · 6
Rocky's DiamondPride Of PlaceA Penny A HundredKings HillAmbitious FellowTonaghneave Well
Where's My Jet and Rocky's Howya are confirmed pace-pushers who will contest the early lead, ensuring an honest gallop from the start. The large field features 8 runners wanting prominent positions (Killaney King, Hermino AA, Dorking Cock, Bartlemy Boy, Goody Four Shoes, Will Do, Boston Rover, Harbour Highway), creating inevitable traffic problems and scrimmaging from 3 out. Over this stamina-sapping 3m1f trip on soft ground with two genuine front-runners, the pace will be searching throughout. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early burn-up and traffic chaos, picking off tired leaders in the final half-mile.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Prevail
55% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong between Where's My Jet and Rocky's Howya
The soft ground and 3m1f trip will find out the early pace-setters, allowing patient hold-up performers to sweep past exhausted leaders. Horses like Rocky's Diamond, Kings Hill, and A Penny A Hundred can avoid the traffic and time their runs perfectly.
Rocky's DiamondKings HillA Penny A HundredAmbitious Fellow
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
25% probability
If the front-runners set a moderate tempo allowing prominent horses to stay close
Boston Rover or Bartlemy Boy can track the pace without over-exertion and kick clear when the leaders weaken. Their ability to sit handy without being caught in traffic gives them the tactical edge.
Boston RoverBartlemy BoyHarbour HighwayKillaney King
C
Front-Runner Stays On
12% probability
If Rocky's Howya gets an easy lead with Where's My Jet pulling too hard early
Rocky's Howya's proven stamina and excellent recent form allows him to dictate terms and hold on grimly. His 4 wins from 5 starts suggests he knows how to close out races when in front.
Rocky's HowyaWhere's My JetPride Of PlaceBorn Bright
D
Traffic Causes Chaos
8% probability
If the large field creates a messy, stop-start pace with multiple fallers or interference
The race becomes a lottery with those getting clear runs benefiting most. Horses drawn well or ridden patiently like Tonaghneave Well could sneak through for places.
Will DoGoody Four ShoesSmallcraftwarningPrince Palace
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Where's My Jet and Rocky's Howya will set a fierce early pace that could collapse if both pull too hard in the first mile
WATCH
Traffic chaos is inevitable from 3 out with 8 prominent runners converging on limited racing room in a 19-runner field
WATCH
Boston Rover faces fitness concerns after 232 days off despite his excellent chase record when fresh
NOTE
Rocky's Diamond's jumping under pressure will be tested for the first time in this level of competitive handicap company
NOTE
Pride Of Place's tendency to fade in the finish could be exposed over this stamina-sapping trip on testing ground
7:18 — Sweeney Oil Handicap Chase
2m½f · Soft · HCAP · 14 runners
Moylussa likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Keep On Dreaming led; the map had Moylussa in front.
Soldante won at 11.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Moylussa
Prominent · 4
SoldanteStoneyford LadyKeep On DreamingDonnrua Dream
Piccolo PlayerMust Go NowPresenting LadParty President
Moylussa and Soldante will dictate the early pace from the front, with Stoneyford Lady and Keep On Dreaming tracking in prominent positions. The soft ground and 2m½f trip suggests a steady gallop rather than breakneck speed, allowing the multiple hold-up horses to get into contention. The lack of genuine speed horses means this will develop into a staying test from the final half-mile. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and prominent trackers who can quicken late, rather than early leaders who may find little cover.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the early pace is steady and the race becomes a sprint from the final half-mile
The patient tactics of the hold-up brigade will pay dividends as they swamp the tiring leaders in the closing stages. Horses like Piccolo Player, Presenting Lad and Must Go Now can use their finishing kicks to full effect.
Piccolo PlayerPresenting LadMust Go NowStruck Oil
B
Prominent Tactics Prevail
25% probability
If Moylussa and Soldante set a genuine gallop that stretches the field
The prominent runners who track the pace will be perfectly positioned to strike when the leaders weaken. Stoneyford Lady and Keep On Dreaming can use their tactical positions to time their challenges.
Stoneyford LadySoldanteKeep On DreamingMoylussa
C
Front Runner Survives
12% probability
If Moylussa gets an uncontested lead and the pace is very sedate throughout
The lack of early pressure allows the leader to dictate completely and have enough left for the finish. Moylussa's stamina reserves prove decisive in the testing conditions.
MoylussaSoldanteStoneyford LadyKeep On Dreaming
D
Outsider Emerges Late
8% probability
If the favourites fail to handle the soft ground or jumping errors occur
A lightly-weighted hold-up horse who handles the conditions perfectly can emerge from the pack. The handicapper's dream scenario where class doesn't tell.
The Rebel CountyJousterStormy MasterRevolut NedBohemian BaySilent Flight
Kilashee is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting a reasonable gallop without pressure in the early stages. With most of the field adopting prominent or hold-up tactics, there's no pace pressure on the leader through the middle stages. The soft ground and 2m5½f trip will test stamina in the final half-mile, particularly as the pace lifts approaching the home turn. This setup strongly favours patient hold-up horses who can stay the trip and finish strongly, as they'll have plenty of pace to aim at without being forced into early efforts.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
60% probability
If Kilashee sets reasonable fractions and the pace builds gradually through the race
The patient types get the perfect tow and can unleash their finishing kicks up the hill, while early leaders tire on the testing ground. Horses like Revolut Ned, Jouster and Finnicky Filly are perfectly positioned to strike late.
Revolut NedJousterFinnicky FillyBallingurteen
B
Prominent Runners Strike
25% probability
If the pace becomes pedestrian and tactical in the middle stages
The horses tracking the leader can kick clear before the hold-up horses get organized, capitalizing on their forward positions. Made U Look and Ballagh Star can use their chase experience to time their moves perfectly.
Made U LookBallagh StarTa Se RuaCavalry Master
C
Kilashee Wire-to-Wire
10% probability
If the ground rides slower than expected and stamina becomes paramount
The leader's uncontested lead proves decisive as others struggle to make up ground in the heavy conditions. Kilashee's staying power and tactical advantage overcome her recent poor form as the field comes back to her late.
KilasheeStormy MasterRideau CanalGlobal Assembly
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
5% probability
If Kilashee goes too slowly and creates a sprint finish from the last
The lack of early pace sets up a bunched field turning for home where anything can happen. Fresh legs and luck in running become crucial as form goes out the window in a cavalry charge.
Bohemian BayThe Rebel CountyMade U LookGlobal Assembly
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kilashee sets the pace from the front but returns from 191 days off and may not stay the trip under pressure
WATCH
Cavalry Master and Silent Flight both carry fade-in-finish warnings and may weaken badly if the pace is strong
WATCH
Made U Look returns from 130 days off having only run in hunter chases, potentially needing the run back in rules company
NOTE
Several reserves including Eddies Pride and Annie Questions could get a run if withdrawals occur on soft ground
NOTE
The ground reports show consistent yielding-to-soft conditions throughout the card, favoring proven soft ground performers
8:18 — Roscommon Livestock Mart (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race
2m · Soft · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.