Archive›Salisbury · 14 June 2026

Salisbury

14 June 2026 · 7 races

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2:14 — Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Apprentice Handicap (Racing Excellence - Whips To Be Carried But Not Used)

7f · Soft · HCAP · 5 runners

Allegrino likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ahead Of Fashion led; the map had Allegrino in front.

Red Moon won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Allegrino

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Red MoonCreciente

Hold Up · 2

Orange EmperorAhead Of Fashion

Allegrino sits as the only natural pace-setter with a prominent style, facing four hold-up horses in this small field. With no pace pressure, Allegrino can dictate terms and set a controlled gallop over 7f at Salisbury. Orange Emperor, Ahead Of Fashion, Red Moon and Creciente must all come from behind, creating a tactical nightmare where they'll need the pace-setter to stop. This race shape strongly favours the front-runner and any horse that can track close early, penalising pure hold-up merchants who rely on strong pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Allegrino Controls Uncontested

60% probability

If Allegrino gets an easy lead without early pressure from the hold-up horses

The pace-setter can dictate fractions and kick when ready, while the quartet of hold-up horses face an impossible task trying to reel in a fresh front-runner. Allegrino's recent form shows comfort at 7f and the tactical advantage proves decisive.

AllegrinoOrange EmperorAhead Of FashionRed Moon

Hold-Up Horse Forces Pace

25% probability

If one of the hold-up horses forces the issue early to prevent Allegrino getting an easy time

Orange Emperor or Ahead Of Fashion may press forward to ensure a true gallop, creating the pace scenario the hold-up horses need. This tactical sacrifice allows the other closers to benefit from genuine pace.

Orange EmperorAhead Of FashionAllegrinoCreciente

Slow Pace Kick

10% probability

If Allegrino sets pedestrian fractions and the field bunches for a sprint finish

The race becomes a 2f dash where class tells and recent form matters most, with Orange Emperor's hold-up style potentially effective in a bunched finish. Fresh legs and tactical positioning become crucial in the final furlong.

Orange EmperorAllegrinoAhead Of FashionRed Moon

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If Allegrino sets such slow fractions that even the hold-up horses struggle to generate momentum

The race turns into a crawl where nobody wants to make the running, creating a messy affair that suits the least worst option. Form and fitness become secondary to whoever can manufacture late momentum.

Ahead Of FashionCrecienteOrange EmperorRed Moon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if any hold-up horse tries to press Allegrino early as this completely changes the race dynamic and pace scenario

WATCH

Monitor Orange Emperor's positioning turning for home as his class could overcome tactical disadvantage if race develops into sprint

NOTE

Observe Allegrino's jumping from the gates as any slow start allows hold-up horses to force stronger pace

WATCH

Watch for Ahead Of Fashion tracking closer than usual given trainer's excellent recent form and need for tactical adjustment

NOTE

Check Red Moon's finishing effort as recent form suggests stamina concerns that tactical disadvantage will expose further

2:44 — Peter Lawrence Memorial Handicap

7f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

Kisskodi likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Land Of Magic led; the map had Kisskodi in front.

Blue Prince won at 2.88 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kisskodi

Prominent · 2

The Dragon KingIt'sneverjustone

Midfield · 3

Land Of MagicAraratSpirit Of Breeze

Hold Up · 2

DiamondonthehillBlue Prince

Kisskodi will take up the early lead with The Dragon King and It'sneverjustone likely to race prominently, creating a moderate pace rather than breakneck speed. The five hold-up horses (Diamondonthehill, Blue Prince, Ararat, Land Of Magic, Spirit Of Breeze) will settle behind this front trio. With soft ground conditions and 7f at Salisbury providing a decent test of stamina, the pace should be honest but not destructive. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers who can sit close to Kisskodi without having to come from too far back on testing ground.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Trackers Dominate

60% probability

If the pace remains honest but not too strong early

The front three can sustain their position while the hold-up brigade struggle to make ground on soft turf. The Dragon King and It'sneverjustone are perfectly placed to pounce when Kisskodi tires.

The Dragon KingIt'sneverjustoneKisskodiDiamondonthehill

Kisskodi Wire-to-Wire

25% probability

If no horse seriously challenges the leader until too late

Kisskodi gets an easy lead and kicks clear in the straight before the closers can respond. George Wood times the move perfectly on ground that suits.

KisskodiThe Dragon KingBlue PrinceDiamondonthehill

Late Surge Success

12% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong early with pressure on Kisskodi

The front-runners tie up badly in the soft conditions, allowing the classiest hold-up horse to sweep past. Diamondonthehill's superior rating tells late.

DiamondonthehillBlue PrinceLand Of MagicSpirit Of Breeze

Outsider Ambush

3% probability

If the race fragments with uneven pace or traffic problems

One of the longer-priced hold-up horses finds a dream passage through to cause an upset. The soft ground levels the playing field for the lower-rated runners.

Land Of MagicSpirit Of BreezeAraratBlue Prince

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Spirit Of Breeze market support given the massive 222-day layoff and hold-up style on testing ground

WATCH

Kisskodi's early fractions - if allowed to dawdle he becomes much more dangerous late

NOTE

The Dragon King's position turning in - needs to be within two lengths to use his finishing kick

WATCH

Diamondonthehill's passage in running - any traffic problems from the back will end his chances

NOTE

It'sneverjustone's jumping from the stalls after the long break - early position crucial for prominent runner

3:14 — R Hannon Racing Supports The Savitri Waney Charity EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

6f · Soft · NOV · 12 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

3:47 — iwrightsongs.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

1m2f · Soft · NOV · 7 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

4:22 — H S Lester Memorial Challenge Cup 'Confined' Handicap (No Win Since 2025 Flat Turf Season)

1m2f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Suhub likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Redbud Sixteen led; the map had Suhub in front.

Redbud Sixteen won at 21.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Suhub

Prominent · 1

King's Castle

Midfield · 5

CriminalHuggableMighty QuietSixfivesevenCastle Quarter

Hold Up · 3

Primo LaraSomkiyrRedbud Sixteen

Suhub will set the tempo from the front with King's Castle likely to track closely in second, creating a sustainable but not pressured gallop in the early stages. The bulk of the field - Criminal, Primo Lara, Redbud Sixteen, Huggable, Mighty Quiet, Sixfiveseven and Castle Quarter - are all hold-up merchants who will settle towards the rear. With only one confirmed front-runner and minimal early pressure, Suhub can dictate fractions and potentially steal a march on the closing brigade. This pace dynamic strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Steals March

45% probability

If Suhub gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear turning for home

The lack of early pace allows the front-runner to build an unassailable advantage while the hold-up horses get caught in traffic. Mason Paetel can time his move perfectly without pressure from behind.

SuhubKing's CastleMighty QuietHuggable

Hold-Up Traffic Carnage

30% probability

If the massive hold-up contingent gets bunched up and can't find clear runs

Seven horses trying to make late moves creates a bottleneck that only the best-positioned closers can navigate. The superior jockeys like Hornby and Loughnane find the gaps while others are trapped.

CriminalMighty QuietPrimo LaraSixfiveseven

King's Castle Pounces Late

15% probability

If the veteran tracks Suhub perfectly and outstays him in the final furlong

David Simcock's nine-year-old uses his experience to sit second, let Suhub do the donkey work, then exploit his superior stamina over this extended trip. The hold-up horses arrive too late after giving away too much start.

King's CastleSuhubHuggableCriminal

Surprise Hold-Up Success

10% probability

If Rossa Ryan gets Criminal into an ideal stalking position and avoids the traffic

The Richard Hughes-trained four-year-old breaks the mould by racing more prominently than usual and gets first run on the field. His class advantage tells when getting a clear passage.

CriminalRedbud SixteenPrimo LaraMighty Quiet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Suhub getting an uncontested early lead could prove decisive with only King's Castle for company in the first half-mile.

WATCH

Traffic problems at the two-furlong pole when seven hold-up horses all converge simultaneously looking for racing room.

WATCH

King's Castle's positioning behind Suhub - if Taryn Langley gets it wrong the 9-year-old could be caught flat-footed.

NOTE

Criminal's early positioning - Ryan needs to break the mould and race more prominently than the horse's usual hold-up style.

NOTE

Mason Paetel's 5-pound claim on Suhub in front-running role could be the difference between winning and getting caught.

4:57 — Shipseys Marquees Handicap

1m · Soft · HCAP · 13 runners

Kamaway likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Hare Rail and Norflondonforever and Darvel led; the map had Kamaway in front.

Kamaway won at 2.38 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kamaway

Prominent · 1

Eutropia

Midfield · 7

Dark RosaThiscouldbefunSpirit Of The BaySpirit Lead MeOpening BatRatingLunanova

Hold Up · 4

Sant AlessioThe Hare RailDarvelNorflondonforever

Kamaway is the only confirmed front runner and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace with Eutropia likely to sit just behind in second. With 11 hold-up horses in the field, there will be a wall of traffic problems in the straight as they all try to find racing room simultaneously. The lack of early pace means the leaders will have plenty left for the finish, while the hold-up brigade will face a nightmare scenario trying to weave through traffic on the Good to Soft ground. This race shape strongly favours the early pace-setters and any horse that can secure a prominent position turning for home.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

55% probability

If Kamaway gets an easy lead and maintains rhythm

The prominent runners control the race from the front while the hold-up horses get caught in traffic behind a wall of 11 closers. Kamaway or Eutropia capitalize on their positional advantage when the field bunches up in the straight.

KamawayEutropiaSant AlessioRating

Traffic Nightmare Chaos

25% probability

If the hold-up horses all hit traffic simultaneously

The 11 hold-up horses create a bottleneck turning for home as they seek the same gaps. Only the luckiest hold-up horse with the clearest passage can emerge from the chaos to challenge the leaders.

Sant AlessioThe Hare RailDarvelNorflondonforever

Strong Finisher Finds Gap

12% probability

If one hold-up horse gets a clean run through

A well-positioned hold-up horse with tactical speed avoids the traffic and produces a late surge. The soft ground helps stamina types who can stay on strongly when others tire.

RatingNorflondonforeverThiscouldbefunOpening Bat

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If Kamaway stops suddenly in front

The uncontested leader hits the wall leaving a vacuum up front with no other natural pace. The field comes together in a messy finish where any horse can win from the chaos.

Dark RosaSpirit Of The BayOpening BatLunanova

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kamaway must be watched for any signs of stopping in front as he is the only pace-setter in the field

WATCH

The bend turning for home will create a bottleneck as 11 hold-up horses simultaneously look for the same gaps

WATCH

Eutropia's position behind Kamaway is crucial as she represents the main threat to the leader if positioned well

NOTE

Any hold-up horse that secures an early prominent position will have a significant tactical advantage over the field

NOTE

The 5lb and 7lb claiming jockeys on Rating, Thiscouldbefun, Lunanova and Norflondonforever may struggle with tactical positioning in such a complex pace scenario

5:32 — Molson Coors Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners

Twilight Moon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Taritino won at 5.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Twilight Moon

Prominent · 2

Arcturus FlameJust An Hour

Midfield · 2

TaritinoFair Dinkum

Hold Up · 2

TryfanJohnny Boom

Twilight Moon will likely lead from the start with minimal early pressure, as most runners prefer prominent or hold-up positions. Arcturus Flame, Just An Hour and Taritino may track close but won't challenge the early tempo. The modest pace will allow Twilight Moon to dictate throughout the middle stages before the field closes late. This sustainable tempo heavily favours prominent runners who can position handy and kick, while hold-up horses face a tactical disadvantage with limited pace to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Modest Pace Throughout

45% probability

If Twilight Moon leads unchallenged and sets a comfortable tempo

The steady gallop allows prominent runners to stay close without stress before launching late challenges. Hold-up horses struggle to make ground with insufficient pace collapse.

Arcturus FlameJust An HourTwilight MoonTaritino

Early Pace Duel

25% probability

If Arcturus Flame or Just An Hour press Twilight Moon early

The increased tempo opens up the race for closers while potentially setting up the leaders for late vulnerability. Hold-up horses benefit from stronger gallop.

Johnny BoomFair DinkumTryfanTwilight Moon

Wire-to-Wire Leader

20% probability

If Twilight Moon maintains control and kicks clear turning in

The leader's recent winning form and tactical advantage prove decisive against a modest field. Late closers left with too much to do.

Twilight MoonJust An HourArcturus FlameTaritino

Late Surge Scenario

10% probability

If the pace collapses dramatically in the final two furlongs

Extreme pace collapse allows natural hold-up horses to showcase their closing kick. Front runners tie up badly.

TryfanJohnny BoomFair DinkumArcturus Flame

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Twilight Moon getting loose on the lead - if unchallenged early, could prove very difficult to peg back

WATCH

Johnny Boom and Fair Dinkum struggling to get competitive positions - hold-up horses need luck in running

NOTE

Just An Hour and Arcturus Flame positioning behind leader - their placement will determine scenario outcome

WATCH

Pace development after first half-mile - any early pressure changes the entire complexion

NOTE

Taritino's quick turnaround after recent run - fitness levels compared to fresher rivals

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 14 June 2026.

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