Archive›Sandown · 28 May 2026

Sandown

28 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:10 — Star Sports Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: Killavia v AkirraFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Akirra led, as the map showed.

Havana Smile won at 15.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

KillaviaAkirra

Prominent · 3

Kolkata KnightMajor Neigh SayerGouken

Midfield · 1

The Lost Sock

Hold Up · 2

Our CodyHavana Smile

Killavia and Akirra are confirmed front runners who will contest the early lead in this 5f sprint, with both having shown they need to be prominent to be effective. Major Neigh Sayer, Gouken, The Lost Sock and Kolkata Knight will track the leaders in a strong prominent group, creating genuine pace pressure from the start. The honest gallop will set up a sustained drive from the 2f pole, with the front runners likely to come under pressure inside the final furlong. This pace shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit just off the leaders and pounce when the pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Prevail

60% probability

If the early leaders go too fast and burn out

The strong pace from Killavia and Akirra will create the perfect setup for horses tracking just behind to sweep past in the final furlong. Major Neigh Sayer, Gouken and The Lost Sock are ideally positioned to benefit from this tactical scenario.

Major Neigh SayerGoukenThe Lost SockKolkata Knight

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If one pace-setter gets first run and sustains

Either Killavia or Akirra could steal a march turning for home and maintain their advantage to the line if the pace is more measured early. The winner would need to show improved stamina to hold off the late challengers.

KillaviaAkirraMajor Neigh SayerOur Cody

Hold-Up Horses Strike

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely early

A lack of early pressure could allow Our Cody and Havana Smile to close from the rear with devastating late runs. However, this scenario requires the confirmed front runners to show uncharacteristic restraint.

Our CodyHavana SmileKillaviaMajor Neigh Sayer

Pace Stalemate

5% probability

If tactical riding creates stop-start tempo

Jockeys might try to outwait each other in the early stages, creating a messy tactical affair. This would likely suit the horse with the best turn of foot from any position, regardless of preferred running style.

Major Neigh SayerGoukenThe Lost SockAkirra

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Killavia and Akirra could go too fast early if both commit fully to leading, setting up the race for closers

WATCH

Our Cody's fitness after 230 days off combined with top weight makes her vulnerable despite class advantage

NOTE

Major Neigh Sayer's response when Oisin Murphy asks for effort will indicate if he's ready to build on recent Newmarket win

WATCH

The Lost Sock showed signs of regression last time and needs to bounce back to earlier season form

NOTE

Track the early fractions - if the first two furlongs are genuine, prominent runners will have a significant tactical edge

5:42 — Star Sports National Stakes (Listed Race)

5f · Good · LST · 8 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bill The Bull led, as the map showed.

Where Love Lives won at 4.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Princesse d'OrangeWhere Love LivesAdaay Of ScarlettBill The Bull

Prominent · 2

NapaMr Macartney

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

A Bear AffairDandyman Dan

Princesse d'Orange, Where Love Lives, Adaay Of Scarlett, and Bill The Bull all possess leading tendencies, guaranteeing a fierce early battle for the rail. Napa also shows prominent instincts from his Newmarket success, meaning five of the eight runners will be clustered within two lengths at halfway. The breakneck gallop will stretch the field dramatically in the final furlong, with stamina reserves becoming crucial despite the minimum trip. This pace setup strongly favors the hold-up horses who can capitalize on the inevitable pace collapse.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Early Pace Collapse

45% probability

If Princesse d'Orange and Where Love Lives duel from the gates while Adaay Of Scarlett tracks close

The quartet of leaders will cook each other in a suicidal gallop, leaving the door wide open for closers with tactical speed. A Bear Affair and Dandyman Dan can sweep past tired leaders in the final 100 yards.

A Bear AffairDandyman DanNapaMr Macartney

Tactical Speed Dominates

30% probability

If Napa settles closer than usual and avoids the early pace battle

The Philippart De Foy runner can stalk the pace duel and strike with a perfectly-timed challenge, using his class edge over exposed leaders. His Newmarket form gives him the tactical nous to exploit the pace scenario.

NapaA Bear AffairAdaay Of ScarlettWhere Love Lives

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If one of the leading trio manages to steal a crucial length advantage early

Adaay Of Scarlett or Where Love Lives could shock by maintaining their advantage if the pace isn't as fierce as expected. Their superior class and recent form would carry them home despite the tactical disadvantage.

Adaay Of ScarlettWhere Love LivesNapaA Bear Affair

Outsider Shock

10% probability

If the pace completely collapses and an unfancied closer times it perfectly

Mr Macartney or Bill The Bull could emerge from nowhere if they get the perfect pace setup and trip. Their modest ratings would need maximum assistance from a suicidal early gallop.

Mr MacartneyBill The BullDandyman DanPrincesse d'Orange

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Princesse d'Orange could set unsustainable fractions if she breaks fast and tries to dictate again

WATCH

Where Love Lives may struggle to cope if three other runners challenge her for the early lead

NOTE

A Bear Affair's hold-up style looks perfectly suited if the pace battle materializes as expected

WATCH

Napa needs to show more tactical restraint than at Newmarket to benefit from the likely strong gallop

NOTE

Dandyman Dan represents a live danger despite inexperience if the pace completely falls apart

6:12 — Star Sports Henry II Stakes (Group 3)

2m · Good · G3 · 8 runners

Lazy Griff to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Furthur led; the map had Lazy Griff in front.

Dubai Future won at 29.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lazy Griff

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Epic PoetDubai FutureParadiasDuke Of OxfordBeylerbeyi

Hold Up · 2

Sweet WilliamFurthur

Lazy Griff is the only confirmed front runner in this Group 3 field and will set an uncontested lead from the start. With seven hold-up horses behind him, including Sweet William, Furthur, Epic Poet, and Dubai Future, Lazy Griff can dictate terms without early pressure. The pace will build gradually through the middle stages as the hold-up brigade jostle for position entering the final three furlongs. This setup strongly favours horses with tactical speed who can position close enough to strike, as the lone leader may prove vulnerable to coordinated challengers in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lazy Griff Wire Job

45% probability

If Lazy Griff gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning in

The 333-day absence becomes irrelevant as William Buick times his move perfectly, and the hold-up horses are left with too much ground to make up despite their superior ratings. His Derby-placed form gives him the class edge when the chips are down.

Lazy GriffSweet WilliamEpic PoetFurthur

Hold Up Swarm

35% probability

If the pace quickens from halfway as multiple horses close on Lazy Griff

Sweet William and Furthur benefit most from their tactical speed, able to position closer than the pure hold-up types and deliver telling challenges. The sustained gallop plays to their stamina strengths over this Group 3 distance.

Sweet WilliamFurthurEpic PoetDubai Future

Late Closer Surge

12% probability

If Lazy Griff sets genuine fractions and the field bunches entering the straight

Epic Poet and Dubai Future get the perfect setup for their patient tactics, with David O'Meara's charge finding his best form and the Godolphin veteran rediscovering his Meydan magic. The strong pace sets up their finishing kicks perfectly.

Epic PoetDubai FutureSweet WilliamParadias

Paradias Shock Value

8% probability

If the AW form translates directly and Alan King's charge gets a dream run

Paradias benefits from his Sandown course knowledge and recent sharp form to outrun his OR 105 rating when getting first run on the field. His trainer's 1/11 record suggests this has been the target all along.

ParadiasDuke Of OxfordLazy GriffSweet William

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sweet William may be vulnerable if his 27-day break leaves him short of full fitness for this Group 3 defence

WATCH

Lazy Griff's 333-day absence could see him weaken dramatically in the final furlong despite setting ideal fractions

NOTE

Epic Poet has been placed in his last two starts and David O'Meara's low strike rate means any runner comes well-found

WATCH

Dubai Future's age and recent form decline suggests his Group-winning days at Meydan are firmly in the past

NOTE

Paradias represents excellent each-way value if his AW handicap form translates to Group company on favoured course

6:42 — Star Sports Heron Stakes (Listed Race)

1m · Good · LST · 9 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nation's Hope and Maximized led, as the map showed.

Talk Of New York won at 2.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

YazinTalk Of New YorkNation's HopeGolden Knight

Prominent · 1

Maximized

Midfield · 1

Andab

Hold Up · 3

Time To TurnPadraig DawnWise Prince

Yazin, Talk Of New York, Nation's Hope and Golden Knight will ensure a strong early gallop in this Listed contest, with all four comfortable making the running. The presence of multiple front-runners guarantees a true test of stamina over this mile trip on good ground at Sandown. Hold-up horses like Wise Prince, Time To Turn and Andab should benefit from the expected strong pace, as the early leaders will soften each other up. This race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can deliver late kicks off a solid gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

45% probability

If the pace-setters go too fast early and tie up in the final furlong

The strong gallop will set up perfectly for closers like Wise Prince and Time To Turn who can unleash finishing kicks. Andab's consistent placed efforts suggest he can also capitalize on the pace collapse.

Wise PrinceTime To TurnAndabMaximized

Front-Runner Survives Duel

30% probability

If Yazin or Talk Of New York can dominate the early pace and kick clear

One of the classier pace-setters will establish a decisive advantage and hold on despite the pressure. Their superior ratings give them the quality to withstand challenges from off the pace.

YazinTalk Of New YorkGolden KnightNation's Hope

Prominent Runner Strikes

15% probability

If Maximized can track the pace and avoid the early battle

The Appleby runner can sit just behind the speed duel and pick up the pieces when the leaders falter. His prominent style avoids both the early burn-out and the traffic problems of hold-up horses.

MaximizedAndabWise PrinceTime To Turn

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If all front-runners go off too quickly and stop dramatically

The entire leading group will come back to the field in the final two furlongs, creating a scramble. Any horse with a turn of foot will benefit, but it may favor the most unexposed runners.

Golden KnightNation's HopeWise PrinceMaximized

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Nation's Hope could set unsustainable fractions on his Listed debut if he tries to replicate his previous front-running tactics

WATCH

Golden Knight's long absence of 218 days makes him vulnerable despite his front-running style suiting the race shape

WATCH

Time To Turn faces a fitness test after 215 days off despite his class advantage over most of these rivals

NOTE

Yazin and Talk Of New York could engage in a pace duel that sets up the race for the hold-up horses behind them

NOTE

Wise Prince showed promise in the Classic Trial here and will appreciate the return to this track with the expected strong gallop

7:12 — Star Sports Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3)

1m2f · Good · G3 · 6 runners

Bedouin Prince to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bedouin Prince led, as the map showed.

Ombudsman won at 1.40 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bedouin Prince

Prominent · 2

AlmericWimbledon Hawkeye

Midfield · 1

Gethin

Hold Up · 2

OmbudsmanArabian Light

Bedouin Prince is the sole committed front-runner and will dictate terms from the gate with no early pressure expected. The prominent runners Gethin, Wimbledon Hawkeye, and Almeric will track within striking distance while hold-up horses Ombudsman and Arabian Light settle toward the rear. With just six runners and one uncontested leader, this sets up as a tactical affair with a sustainable early gallop building to a sprint finish. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can unleash late kicks, as Bedouin Prince may find himself isolated on the lead with plenty left in the tank for the closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

55% probability

If Bedouin Prince sets ordinary fractions and the pace lacks bite through the middle stages

The lack of early pressure allows the class horses at the back to position perfectly and unleash devastating finishing kicks. Ombudsman and Arabian Light benefit most from this patient tactical setup.

OmbudsmanArabian LightAlmericGethin

Front rank prevails

25% probability

If the early pace is honest enough to string out the field but Bedouin Prince maintains his kick

The Appleby runner gets first run on his rivals while the prominent horses can respond quickly to his move. Hold-up horses are caught flat-footed by the change of tempo.

Bedouin PrinceGethinAlmericWimbledon Hawkeye

Prominent stalkers strike

15% probability

If Bedouin Prince sets steady fractions but the prominent horses get perfect tracking positions

Gethin and Almeric can time their moves to perfection, hitting the front just as the leader and hold-up horses are still organizing their challenges. The tactical positioning proves decisive over pure finishing speed.

GethinAlmericOmbudsmanBedouin Prince

Bedouin Prince wire-to-wire

5% probability

If the early pace is genuinely slow and Connor Planas can control every fraction

The front-runner dictates completely and has enough in reserve to repel all challengers despite their superior ratings. His tactical advantage overcomes the class deficit.

Bedouin PrinceWimbledon HawkeyeGethinAlmeric

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ombudsman showing signs of needing the run early as his class advantage could evaporate if not fully tuned up

WATCH

Bedouin Prince getting away with soft fractions through the first half-mile which would set up his stablemate Arabian Light perfectly

WATCH

Wimbledon Hawkeye traveling strongly despite the long layoff as Cieren Fallon has ridden this horse to success before

NOTE

Connor Planas being allowed to dictate completely uncontested fractions on Bedouin Prince

NOTE

The prominent horses Gethin and Almeric being caught in no-man's land if the pace becomes stop-start

7:45 — Starsports.Bet Whitsun Cup Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Raammee to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nostrum led; the map had Raammee in front.

Boyfriend won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Raammee

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

NostrumSaytarrCogitateBoyfriend

Hold Up · 2

HickoryDark Tornado

Raammee will take this race forward as the only natural leader, likely setting an uncontested pace with no pressure from the prominent runners. The entire field behind him consists of hold-up horses (Hickory, Nostrum, Saytarr, Cogitate, Boyfriend, Dark Tornado) who will be content to track and wait. This creates a classic scenario where the front runner dictates terms without harassment, while the closers face the challenge of making up ground against a horse who has controlled the tempo. This race shape strongly favors front runners and early prominent types, as Raammee can control the fractions and kick clear when the hold-up brigade still have work to do.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Raammee Controls Completely

45% probability

If Raammee gets soft early fractions and maintains his kick

The lightly-raced 4-year-old dictates ideal fractions and has enough left to repel late challenges from the massed hold-up brigade. His class from those easy all-weather wins translates perfectly to this tactical scenario.

RaammeeSaytarrHickoryDark Tornado

Late Charge Prevails

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and sets up perfectly for closers

The lack of early pace allows the best finisher to unleash a devastating late run that Raammee cannot match. Quality hold-up horses like Hickory or Saytarr time their runs to perfection.

HickorySaytarrNostrumCogitate

Raammee Fades Late

15% probability

If Raammee's long layoff tells in the final furlong

The 262-day break catches up with the leader in the closing stages, allowing the most progressive hold-up horse to sweep past. His early pace advantage evaporates when fitness runs out.

Dark TornadoBoyfriendCogitateSaytarr

Tactical Muddle

10% probability

If Raammee goes too slow early and creates a sprint finish

Ultra-soft fractions turn this into a 2-furlong dash where track position and turn of foot matter most. The hold-up horses with the best finishing kick benefit from the lack of genuine pace.

CogitateBoyfriendHickoryNostrum

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Raammee settles worse than expected - any signs of pulling or fighting Ray Dawson early could compromise his stamina reserves

WATCH

Monitor Dark Tornado's early position - if he's caught too far back early, his recent comeback run suggests he may need this

NOTE

Check Hickory's jumping from the gates - his hold-up style requires a clean start to get into contention from his wide draw

WATCH

Observe Saytarr's turf adaptation - his 0-9 turf record is concerning despite recent good all-weather form for James Horton

NOTE

Watch the pace through the first half-mile - if it's crawling, it completely changes the complexion for all the hold-up horses

8:20 — Starsports.Bet Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Lead contested: Loblolly v TrioHISTORIC

How it ran

Trio and Suddenly I See led, as the map showed.

Law Court won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

LoblollyTrio

Prominent · 5

Law CourtThe JokerSuddenly I SeeDarzahBrighlee

Midfield · 1

Crimson Rambler

Hold Up · 4

Blues And RoyalsMontague MenaceLuzon HeightsBrave Hunter

Loblolly and Trio will contest the early lead with both confirmed front-runners likely to post honest fractions. The prominent brigade of Suddenly I See, The Joker, Darzah, Law Court and Brighlee creates significant congestion behind the leaders, with traffic problems inevitable from 2f out. Hold-up horses Luzon Heights, Brave Hunter, Blues And Royals and Montague Menace face a wall of horses to navigate in the straight. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can secure clean positions early and avoid the scramble, with front-runners also advantaged if they can steal a march.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Takes Control

45% probability

If the prominent horses settle kindly behind the battling leaders

The pace duel between Loblolly and Trio sets this up perfectly for horses like Suddenly I See and The Joker to pounce from ideal positions. The hold-up brigade get caught behind the wall of prominent runners and can't deliver their finishing kicks.

Suddenly I SeeThe JokerLaw CourtDarzah

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If one of the leaders gets first run on the field

Loblolly or Trio establishes a crucial 2-3 length advantage turning for home while the prominent pack are still sorting themselves out. By the time the closers get clear, the leader has stolen an unassailable advantage.

TrioLoblollySuddenly I SeeThe Joker

Hold Up Hero

15% probability

If the pace collapses or the leaders come back dramatically

The early gallop proves too honest and the front-runners/prominent horses tie up in the final furlong. Luzon Heights or Blues And Royals find the gaps that matter and sweep past tired horses in the final 100 yards.

Luzon HeightsBlues And RoyalsBrave HunterCrimson Rambler

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If both leaders go too fast and multiple prominent horses also get involved

The race becomes a tactical crawl with stop-start fractions that suit nobody's natural rhythm. Any horse that can adapt quickest to the muddling pace can steal it, often from an unexpected position.

Montague MenaceBrighleeCrimson RamblerDarzah

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Loblolly and Trio will clash from the start - whichever gets the better of this early duel holds a crucial advantage

WATCH

Traffic chaos developing 2f out as five prominent runners converge on the leaders with limited room

WATCH

Luzon Heights and Blues And Royals need significant pace collapse to get competitive from so far back

NOTE

Suddenly I See ideally positioned if William Buick can slot in behind the leading pair early

NOTE

The Joker's Sandown experience could prove vital if the race becomes a tactical battle in the straight

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 28 May 2026.

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