Archive›Sedgefield · 10 April 2026

Sedgefield

10 April 2026 · 6 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:57 — Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Tom Creen likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Clonakilty led; the map had Tom Creen in front.

Maggies Boy won at 4.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tom Creen

Prominent · 1

Arctic Saint

Midfield · 4

Cardamon HillMaggies BoyItalian SpiritParamaribo

Hold Up · 2

Isle Of SarkClonakilty

Tom Creen will lead from the front with Arctic Saint likely to press early, setting a steady gallop through the first mile. With only two confirmed pace angles and six hold-up horses, this creates a tactical affair where the front pair won't face serious pressure until turning in. The lack of prominent racers means the hold-up brigade will be bunched together off a modest tempo, setting up a dash from the final fence. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominance

50% probability

If Tom Creen gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm

The steady pace plays into his hands perfectly, allowing him to kick clear from the last fence while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in time. His course form and tactical advantage become decisive factors.

Tom CreenArctic SaintIsle Of SarkCardamon Hill

Late Charge Success

25% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and collapses completely

The hold-up horses get the perfect scenario with a sprint finish, allowing class to tell over tactics. Isle Of Sark and Cardamon Hill can use their higher ratings to devastating effect.

Isle Of SarkCardamon HillClonakiltyTom Creen

Mid-Race Pressure Cooker

15% probability

If Arctic Saint or another challenger takes the race to Tom Creen

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours horses with proven stamina who can stay the trip strongly. This eliminates some of the hold-up horses who rely on a sprint finish.

Cardamon HillClonakiltyTom CreenIsle Of Sark

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If both Tom Creen and Arctic Saint go too slowly early

The race becomes a complete lottery with traffic problems decisive, potentially allowing an outsider to sneak through on the rail. Form goes out the window in favour of position and luck.

Maggies BoyClonakiltyTom CreenIsle Of Sark

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tom Creen's jumping under pressure - if he makes mistakes when challenged his front-running tactics become vulnerable

WATCH

Isle Of Sark's position at halfway - needs to be handy enough to avoid traffic problems with so many hold-up horses

NOTE

Arctic Saint's early tempo - if he goes too fast trying to pressure Tom Creen he'll compromise both their chances

WATCH

Cardamon Hill's fitness levels - returning from a pulled-up effort and switching trainers raises conditioning questions

NOTE

The pace through the first mile - if it's funeral-slow the hold-up horses get their ideal scenario

2:32 — bet365 "National Hunt" Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Owzthat likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dartmouth Castle led; the map had Owzthat in front.

Dartmouth Castle won at 1.53 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Owzthat

Prominent · 1

Dartmouth Castle

Midfield · 1

Whenthemusicstops

Hold Up · 2

WendywilldoPark Hind

Owzthat is the only confirmed front runner in this five-runner maiden hurdle and won't face early pressure, allowing Rebecca Menzies' mare to dictate terms from the outset. Dartmouth Castle and Whenthemusicstops are both prominent runners who will track the pace, while Wendywilldo and Park Hind prefer to be held up. With no genuine pace pressure on the leader, this sets up as a steadily-run race that will develop into a sprint finish. This tactical scenario strongly favours the hold-up horses who can unleash late runs, as the modest early gallop will leave them with plenty in reserve.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses thrive

55% probability

If Owzthat sets uncontested fractions and the pace stays steady throughout

The lack of early burn allows patient riders to time their challenges perfectly in the final 3f. Wendywilldo and Park Hind benefit most from being able to unleash finishing kicks from off the pace.

WendywilldoPark HindDartmouth CastleWhenthemusicstops

Prominent duo battle

30% probability

If Dartmouth Castle and Whenthemusicstops press forward to challenge Owzthat earlier than expected

The increased tempo stretches the field and creates a more even test of stamina. McCain's Dartmouth Castle has the best recent form to capitalize on a stronger pace.

Dartmouth CastleWhenthemusicstopsWendywilldoOwzthat

Front runner kicks clear

12% probability

If Owzthat finds improved form after a 1152-day absence and utilizes her uncontested lead

The mare gets first run on her rivals and maintains her advantage to the line. Her stamina-laden pedigree suggests she can stay the 2m4f trip strongly.

OwzthatDartmouth CastleWhenthemusicstopsWendywilldo

Pace collapse finish

3% probability

If the early pace is exceptionally slow and all five runners remain in contention turning for home

A cavalry charge finish develops where the strongest stayer prevails. The race becomes a pure test of who handles the stop-start nature best.

Dartmouth CastleWendywilldoWhenthemusicstopsOwzthat

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Park Hind has pulled up in her last three starts and represents a significant non-completion risk

WATCH

Wendywilldo returns after 375 days off and her fitness must be questioned despite previous course form

NOTE

Owzthat's hood first-time suggests connections are trying something different after her long absence

WATCH

The small field size increases the chance of tactical errors if jockeys misjudge the pace

NOTE

Dartmouth Castle's recent Newcastle second came over 2m1f and the step up to 2m4f is untested

3:03 — Position Payout At bet365 Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Chemistry likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rebel Tribesman led; the map had Chemistry in front.

Chemistry won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Chemistry

Prominent · 1

Rebel Tribesman

Midfield · 1

Twilight Safari

Hold Up · 2

Ribble RiverKuredu King

Chemistry emerges as the sole confirmed front-runner in this small field, likely to set an uncontested lead with Rebel Tribesman tracking in second as the only prominent runner. The three hold-up horses (Ribble River, Kuredu King, Twilight Safari) will settle at the back, creating a clear early split. With no pace pressure on Chemistry, this sets up a moderate gallop that builds steadily, suiting horses that can sustain a challenge rather than those needing a sprint finish. This tactical scenario strongly favours the early pace-setters who can dictate terms without getting into a speed duel.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Chemistry Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Chemistry maintains an uncontested lead and sustains her effort

The front-runner dictates ideal fractions and holds off late challenges, while Rebel Tribesman benefits from the perfect stalking trip just behind. Both prominent runners get their preferred tactical setup without early pressure.

ChemistryRebel TribesmanRibble RiverKuredu King

Hold-Up Horses Rally

30% probability

If the early pace proves too slow and allows strong finishing kicks

Ribble River and Kuredu King find the moderate tempo suits their closing style, with both having shown winning form when allowed to finish strongly. The pace-setters get caught in the final furlong as the closers time their moves perfectly.

Ribble RiverKuredu KingChemistryRebel Tribesman

Rebel Tribesman Strikes

20% probability

If Chemistry weakens and Rebel Tribesman inherits the lead turning in

The Snowden runner uses his prominent position to take over smoothly, benefiting from recent race fitness and his two wins from five starts over hurdles. Joe Anderson's 3-pound claim becomes valuable in a tight finish.

Rebel TribesmanChemistryKuredu KingRibble River

Long Shot Surprise

5% probability

If the market leaders all disappoint and fitness/jumping issues surface

Twilight Safari or another outsider benefits from the chaos ahead, though this requires multiple failures given the quality difference. The pace collapse allows a shock result from an unfancied runner.

Twilight SafariKuredu KingChemistryRebel Tribesman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Chemistry's jumping under pressure - any mistakes could hand the race to Rebel Tribesman tracking behind

WATCH

Ribble River's breathing after previous bleeding incident - any respiratory distress could end chances quickly

WATCH

Kuredu King's improvement from hurdles debut - needs significant step forward after never threatening at Huntingdon

NOTE

How aggressively the hold-up horses commit in the straight - moderate pace may not provide enough finishing kick

NOTE

Rebel Tribesman's positioning behind Chemistry - Joe Anderson must avoid getting too close early and blunting his finishing speed

3:38 — bet365 Handicap Chase

3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Mobile Mamma likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Goodoldbill led; the map had Mobile Mamma in front.

Goodoldbill won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mobile Mamma

Prominent · 1

Goodoldbill

Midfield · 1

Defence Witness

Hold Up · 2

The Grey ManJongleur d'Etoiles

Mobile Mamma will take the lead from the start with Goodoldbill likely sitting handy, creating a moderate but sustainable pace over this marathon trip. With three hold-up horses (The Grey Man withdrawn, Jongleur d'Etoiles, Defence Witness) tracking behind, the pace won't be pressured early allowing the leaders to dictate. The patient hold-up horses will have every chance to mount challenges from the back, but the lack of pace pressure means front-runners and prominent racers who stay strongly will be hard to peg back. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can control their own destiny.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Mobile Mamma Controls

45% probability

If Mobile Mamma jumps cleanly and maintains a steady gallop without serious pressure

Ruth Jefferson's mare gets first run on her rivals and her stamina proves superior over this extreme trip. The hold-up horses find too much to do when the pace quickens approaching the home turn.

Mobile MammaGoodoldbillJongleur d'EtoilesDefence Witness

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

30% probability

If the pace becomes overly sedate allowing closers to conserve energy for one decisive move

Jongleur d'Etoiles or Defence Witness times their challenge perfectly, sweeping past tiring leaders in the final half-mile. Neil Mulholland's charge looks the most likely beneficiary with his superior class.

Jongleur d'EtoilesDefence WitnessMobile MammaGoodoldbill

Goodoldbill Hat-Trick

15% probability

If Mobile Mamma makes jumping errors or goes too fast early on

Goodoldbill inherits the lead and proves impossible to catch, completing his hat-trick despite the 5lb rise. Jane Walton's veteran uses his experience to outstay his younger rivals over this demanding trip.

GoodoldbillMobile MammaDefence WitnessJongleur d'Etoiles

Defence Witness Bounces

10% probability

If Defence Witness shows immediate early pace to race closer than usual

Sam England's charge puts his disappointing Kelso run behind him and travels strongly throughout before quickening clear. His dual chase-winning form over similar trips makes him dangerous if returning to form.

Defence WitnessJongleur d'EtoilesMobile MammaGoodoldbill

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mobile Mamma's jumping under pressure - any significant errors will hand initiative to patient closers behind

WATCH

Jongleur d'Etoiles for signs of early keen behaviour that could compromise his finishing kick over this marathon trip

NOTE

Defence Witness breaking from his usual hold-up style to race closer if confidence returns from recent poor run

WATCH

Goodoldbill's response to faster ground conditions as both recent wins came on much softer surfaces

NOTE

The pace through the middle stages - if too steady it will bring Jongleur d'Etoiles and Defence Witness right into contention

4:13 — bet365 Handicap Hurdle

3m3f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Celestial Reign likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Wee Alki led; the map had Celestial Reign in front.

Dillarchie won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Celestial Reign

Prominent · 1

Wee Alki

Midfield · 2

DillarchieMoro Rock

Hold Up · 2

Star VantageEast Eagle

Celestial Reign will likely take this race forward from the outset with no other confirmed pace horses in the field. Wee Alki and Dillarchie will sit prominent behind, while Moro Rock may also press forward given his prominent style. With limited early pace, this creates a tactical affair where the tempo will be controlled rather than searching, favouring those who can quicken off the moderate gallop. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can travel well and hold their position throughout, as they won't be compromised by a fierce early pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Celestial Reign dictates at a steady tempo without serious early pressure.

The front runner gets an easy lead and sets the race up perfectly for a sustained kick, while prominent runners get the ideal sit behind. Those held up at the back struggle to make up ground on horses who've conserved energy in the moderate early pace.

Celestial ReignWee AlkiDillarchieMoro Rock

Prominent Battle

30% probability

If Wee Alki and Dillarchie press Celestial Reign from the off creating more pressure.

The pace lifts sufficiently to bring the hold-up horses into play, with the early leaders potentially vulnerable to those finishing from off the pace. This creates a more open affair where stamina and a strong finish become key assets.

DillarchieEast EagleStar VantageWee Alki

Late Surge Success

15% probability

If the early pace is very sedate and the field remains tightly bunched turning in.

Hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with plenty of horse to aim at and can unleash their finishing kick. The race becomes a sprint from the last hurdle where class and acceleration matter most.

Star VantageEast EagleDillarchieWee Alki

Moro Rock Revival

10% probability

If Moro Rock shows unexpected improvement after his 161-day break and travels strongly.

The long absence has freshened him up and he recaptures something approaching his Stratford winning form from last summer. His prominent style gets him into the perfect position to strike approaching the final flight.

Moro RockEast EagleCelestial ReignDillarchie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Celestial Reign's stamina is unproven beyond 2m4f and could fold if pressed early by the prominent runners.

WATCH

Moro Rock has been absent for 161 days and his first run back might expose any residual fitness issues.

NOTE

Watch how aggressively Wee Alki and Dillarchie position themselves early, as they could force a stronger pace than expected.

WATCH

Star Vantage needs a truly-run race to be effective and may struggle if the tempo remains steady throughout.

4:45 — Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap Hurdle

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

William Yeats likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Nevershedatear led; the map had William Yeats in front.

Scots Poet won at 7.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

William Yeats

Prominent · 1

Clean Getaway

Midfield · 3

JustlikefireScots PoetNevershedatear

Hold Up · 2

Blackwater LillyKing Sacre

William Yeats is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate the early pace from the front, with Clean Getaway likely to track him in second through the early stages. The five hold-up horses (Scots Poet, Justlikefire, Blackwater Lilly, King Sacre, Nevershedatear) will settle towards the rear, creating a bunched field behind the leading pair. With minimal early pressure on William Yeats, he can set a steady tempo before the hold-up brigade launch their challenges from the back straight onwards. This tactical setup strongly favours prominent runners who can position close to the pace early and avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If William Yeats and Clean Getaway maintain their forward positions without interference

The leaders avoid the scrambling that develops behind them as five hold-up horses compete for racing room in the straight. Clean Getaway's recent C&D chase win and William Yeats' course knowledge prove decisive against the crowded hold-up contingent.

Clean GetawayWilliam YeatsBlackwater LillyKing Sacre

Hold-Up Horse Finds Clear Run

30% probability

If one of the hold-up horses secures an unimpeded passage while others get shuffled back

Blackwater Lilly or King Sacre benefit from their recent C&D form to emerge from the pack with a telling late challenge. The sustained pace allows their finishing kick to overwhelm the prominent pair.

Blackwater LillyKing SacreClean GetawayScots Poet

Pace Collapse Benefits Closers

15% probability

If William Yeats sets too steady a tempo and gets swamped by superior finishing speed

The tactical race becomes a sprint finish where Nevershedatear's higher TopSpeed rating (99) and Justlikefire's fresh condition from the 48-day break prove crucial. Multiple hold-up horses converge simultaneously on the leaders.

NevershedatearJustlikefireScots PoetClean Getaway

Complete Traffic Chaos

10% probability

If the five hold-up horses create a wall of traffic that blocks most finishing efforts

William Yeats benefits from his uncontested lead as the field behind becomes a scrummage where only one or two horses can secure racing room. The pace-setter's stamina holds against the limited number who can mount effective challenges.

William YeatsClean GetawayKing SacreBlackwater Lilly

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

William Yeats must be watched early as the lone leader carrying top weight after 78 days off may not sustain his gallop

WATCH

The pack of five hold-up horses will create a potential traffic jam from two furlongs out that could eliminate genuine contenders

WATCH

Clean Getaway's jumping under pressure as he translates chase form back to hurdles in what could become a rough finish

NOTE

Nevershedatear's hood debut and free-running style may see him go too fast too early in the reduced trip from 2m3f to 2m1f

NOTE

King Sacre's significant improvement curve after poor qualifying runs suggests he could outrun his odds again if the race unfolds smoothly

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 10 April 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →