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Archive›Sedgefield · 14 September 2026

Sedgefield

14 September 2026 · 6 races

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2:00 — Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Handicap Hurdle Race
3m3f · Good · HCAP · 3 runners
Fairlawn Skipper likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Parikarma led; the map had Fairlawn Skipper in front.

Paddy De Pole won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Fairlawn Skipper
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 1
Paddy De Pole
Hold Up · 1
Parikarma
Fairlawn Skipper is the sole confirmed pace-setter in this three-runner 3m3f contest and will stride to the front from the off, setting a sustainable gallop entirely uncontested over Sedgefield's testing trip. Paddy De Pole will track from midfield and Parikarma will be held up at the rear, meaning Fairlawn Skipper effectively controls the tempo from flag to finish with no rival willing or able to challenge for the lead. At Good ground over this marathon trip, an uncontested front-runner who dictates pace and jumps cleanly will be very difficult to dislodge, and Fairlawn Skipper's recent winning form at similar distances on Good underlines that ability. This race shape strongly favours the prominent/front-running profile — a single leader controlling fractions over 3m3f with no pressure creates a classic opportunity for the pace-setter to steal a march and grind out rivals who must produce their effort from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Skipper Dictates, Grinds Clear
74% probability
If Fairlawn Skipper settles into an uncontested rhythm and the pace is sufficient to stretch the field approaching the final mile.
Fairlawn Skipper controls fractions throughout, jumps economically, and simply has too much in reserve when asked to lengthen after the last; rivals who need to close from further back run into a winner who has never been off the bridle in earnest. This scenario suits the front-running profile because no rival is equipped or willing to apply early pressure.
Fairlawn SkipperPaddy De PoleParikarmaPaddy De Pole
B
Skipper Ties Up Late, Chaser Pounces
14% probability
If Fairlawn Skipper's pace proves too generous over the testing 3m3f and he begins to capitulate after the last flight.
Paddy De Pole, tracking from midfield, is best placed to pick up the pieces if Skipper weakens in the final furlong, having sat closest to the pace throughout; his form at 24f on Good is noted, though his tendency to fade in finishes is a concern. Parikarma, coming from furthest back, would need a dramatic collapse from the leader to get competitive in time.
Paddy De PoleParikarmaFairlawn SkipperPaddy De Pole
C
Closers Swamp Tiring Leader
7% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong and both chasers close with sustained momentum to engulf Fairlawn Skipper at or before the last.
Parikarma's strong recent form string (327231) and hold-up profile would theoretically suit a fast-run race where stamina becomes the decisive factor late on, and her Good-ground record across similar trips gives her a legitimate chance in this shape. However, with only three runners and no genuine pace pressure likely, a truly strong gallop is unlikely, making this scenario a low-probability outcome.
ParikarmaPaddy De PoleFairlawn SkipperParikarma
D
Chaos — Incident Alters Race
5% probability
If a jumping error, fall, or unseat disrupts the race and fundamentally reshapes the contest for any surviving runner.
With only three runners, any single incident — such as a fall or refusal by Fairlawn Skipper — immediately converts the race to a match and potentially hands advantage to whichever rival is travelling best at that point. The small field amplifies the impact of any such event, though Good ground reduces jumping risk overall.
Paddy De PoleParikarmaFairlawn SkipperParikarma

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHFairlawn SkipperPaddy De PolepParikarmav1. Fairlawn Skipper2. Paddy De Pole3. Parikarma
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Fairlawn Skipper must jump cleanly from the front — a jumping error at any point is immediately costly with no cover and a small field offering no room to recover momentum.
WATCH
Paddy De Pole's tendency to fade in the finish is a documented flag; watch whether he is still travelling at the third-last, as any weakening there effectively reduces this to a two-horse race between Skipper and Parikarma.
WATCH
Parikarma needs a true-run pace to close into — if Fairlawn Skipper sets a conservative tempo in the early stages, watch whether Miss Imogen Mathias (7lb claimer) elects to make an earlier move than the horse's natural style would suggest.
NOTE
Seven-day turnaround for Fairlawn Skipper is worth monitoring in the paddock — a horse that ran recently at this level and returns quickly can either be cherry-ripe or slightly flat, and Mickey Bowen's 5/15 trainer strike rate in the past 14 days is a moderate rather than hot form line.
NOTE
With only three runners, non-completion by any horse dramatically alters the market dynamics — monitor market moves in the final 20 minutes for any unexpected drifts that might signal paddock or welfare concerns.
2:30 — Fairlight Studios Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)
2m1f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners
Tralee Girl likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tralee Girl led, as the map showed.

Tralee Girl won at 1.44 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Tralee Girl
Prominent · 2
HelmsleyBlue Topaz
Midfield · 2
Mighty DinkMia Sunshine
Hold Up · 2
You Be Lucky JeanSweet Cicely
Tralee Girl is the confirmed pace-setter and will lead from the front, with Helmsley and Blue Topaz likely to press from prominent positions, creating a competitive early gallop on good ground at Sedgefield. You Be Lucky Jean, the Strand top-rated selection with two wins from two over similar going, will be ridden to hold up or track from off the pace by Sean Quinlan, positioning her to strike when the leaders come back to the field. With Tralee Girl uncontested at the head of affairs but carrying prominent rivals close behind, the pace should be honest and sustained — not a dawdle, not a sprint — and this shape is likely to produce a genuine test that rewards a well-timed run from just behind the leaders rather than a deep hold-up. Horses able to travel smoothly in the first-third of the pack and pounce from two out will be best placed; the field also contains Mia Sunshine, a genuine hold-up type who has been mapped to midfield because there are more closers than the race shape can naturally accommodate at the rear, meaning she is unlikely to secure her preferred position.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Honest Pace, Late Strike
72% probability
If Tralee Girl sets a sustainable lead and the prominent runners Helmsley and Blue Topaz press without quickening excessively, You Be Lucky Jean tracks into a winning position from off the pace.
Quinlan positions You Be Lucky Jean to travel well in the chasing group and delivers a smooth challenge from two hurdles out, her two wins on Good ground underlining suitability.
You Be Lucky JeanBlue TopazTralee GirlHelmsley
B
Front Runner Holds On
14% probability
If Tralee Girl is given an easy lead and the chasers fail to close the gap turning for home.
Tralee Girl dictates a manageable tempo and the prominent runners run out of steam trying to mount a challenge late, allowing her to hold on; her OR of 115 and Good-ground form (2/2 place record) give her a credible chance of sustaining the effort.
Tralee GirlHelmsleyBlue TopazYou Be Lucky Jean
C
Prominent Racer Swoops
9% probability
If the early pace collapses or Blue Topaz produces a bold round of jumping to burst clear from a prominent position.
Blue Topaz, winner over 17f on Good ground, uses her hurdling experience to track up and quicken decisively before the final obstacle; Helmsley could also benefit if he improves on his flat form over hurdles at this trip.
Blue TopazHelmsleyTralee GirlYou Be Lucky Jean
D
Closers Pounce Late
5% probability
If the pace burns out dramatically and genuine hold-up horses get a clear run from the rear.
Mia Sunshine and Sweet Cicely are true hold-up types but both carry significant doubts — Mia Sunshine fades in finishes and Sweet Cicely has a poor strike-rate across all going — making this scenario the least likely outcome.
Mia SunshineSweet CicelyYou Be Lucky JeanBlue Topaz

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHTralee GirlHelmsleyBlue TopaztMighty DinkMia SunshineYou Be Lucky Je…Sweet Cicelyp3. Tralee Girl4. Helmsley2. Blue Topaz5. Mighty Dink6. Mia Sunshine1. You Be Lucky Jean7. Sweet Cicely
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
You Be Lucky Jean is unbeaten in two runs and both came on Good ground at this sort of trip — watch whether Sean Quinlan settles her smoothly early, because if she travels kindly she is the one all others must beat.
WATCH
Tralee Girl has been off 161 days and while she is confirmed as the race's front runner, an absence of over five months on a horse being asked to front-run on a sharp track like Sedgefield is a stamina-fitness query worth monitoring in the parade ring.
WATCH
Blue Topaz showed a P (pulled up) recently before bouncing back with a win — watch her jumping in the early stages, as a jumping error from a prominent position could compromise her chance or cause interference to others.
NOTE
Mighty Dink has no public form and no going data — connections are the same Dan Skelton yard sending out Tralee Girl, so watch for market moves or paddock presence that might signal a serious intended run.
NOTE
Mia Sunshine's redistribution from hold-up to midfield on the pace map means she is unlikely to get cover she needs; if she is forced to race prominently against her nature, watch for her to stop quickly in the straight as her form note indicates a tendency to fade.
3:00 — MW Civils & Groundworks Handicap Steeple Chase
3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Aill Dubh to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jeteye and Aill Dubh led, as the map showed.

Jeteye won at 2.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Aill Dubh
Prominent · 1
Jeteye
Midfield · 1
Croagh Patrick
Hold Up · 2
Uncle AlBahtiyar
Aill Dubh is the sole confirmed front-runner and will lead from the outset over this 3m2½f trip on Good ground at Sedgefield, with no other horse in the field inclined to dispute early. With just five runners and no pressure expected, Aill Dubh's rider Joshua Thompson can dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop that keeps the race honest without burning fuel — a classic lone-leader scenario where the pace is real enough to string the field out but not frantic enough to invite collapse. Jeteye, running from a prominent position, is perfectly placed to track the front-runner throughout and pounce at the business end, while hold-up horses Uncle Al and Bahtiyar will need to close from a further back, which is harder when the pace is measured and the gaps don't materialise late. This race shape strongly favours a prominently-ridden, good-ground horse that can travel behind the leader and produce a clean jump at the last — confirming Jeteye as the chief beneficiary of this controlled front-running scenario.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Jeteye Tracks And Pounces
72% probability
If Aill Dubh sets a sustainable pace and Jeteye travels smoothly in second throughout.
Aill Dubh controls proceedings at a measured tempo, and Jeteye's prominent style allows him to sit comfortably in the slipstream before asserting from the home turn; his exceptional Good-ground record (7 from 7 sim-going runs with 2 wins and 5 places) makes him the standout profile here.
JeteyeAill DubhUncle AlCroagh Patrick
B
Aill Dubh Front-Runs And Stays
14% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady and Aill Dubh's jumping holds up, enabling him to steal enough of a lead that chasers can't reel him in.
Aill Dubh has won over this sort of trip before and at OR=76 is relatively well-handicapped; if Thompson times the fractions to perfection and the hold-up horses are caught flat-footed, the front-runner simply isn't caught.
Aill DubhJeteyeCroagh PatrickUncle Al
C
Uncle Al Late Surge
9% probability
If the pace is stronger than expected and the front rank tie themselves up, leaving a genuine run-in for a hold-up horse.
Uncle Al won over 24f on Good ground and has course form, and a faster-than-anticipated gallop could theoretically bring him into it late; however his recent form includes two unseated-rider incidents which adds significant execution risk.
Uncle AlBahtiyarJeteyeCroagh Patrick
D
Chaos And Attrition
5% probability
If jumping errors or fallers disrupt the small field and the race degenerates into a test of jumping soundness rather than pace.
With only five runners any incident creates a lottery and Croagh Patrick's veteran experience over the course (two recent runs over 26f at Sedgefield) could help him outlast a depleted field; Bahtiyar's consistent placing record suggests he stays on doggedly if others fall away.
Croagh PatrickBahtiyarUncle AlAill Dubh

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHAill DubhpJeteyetbCroagh PatrickbUncle AlpBahtiyarp2. Aill Dubh1. Jeteye4. Croagh Patrick3. Uncle Al5. Bahtiyar
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Jeteye's jumping under pressure — if he makes a significant error at one of the later fences while travelling prominently, Aill Dubh could steal a march that proves impossible to close in a five-runner race.
WATCH
Aill Dubh's stamina for 3m2½f — his wins have come at 21f and 24f, and this is a step up in trip; watch for signs of him weakening from the third-last if Thompson has gone too fast in the middle section.
WATCH
Uncle Al's jumping record — two recent unseated-rider finishes mean a further jumping blunder is a live risk in this field, and losing a prominent racer mid-race could create interference for horses tracking close behind.
NOTE
Bahtiyar runs just nine days after his last start (LR: 9d), which is the freshest in the field; watch whether Max Young's yard has timed this deliberately or whether the quick turnaround hints at a horse being placed for a confidence run rather than a bold bid.
NOTE
Small-field dynamics at Sedgefield — with only five runners over 3m2½f on Good ground, the race is unlikely to be truly strongly run; any horse that jumps cleanly and travels wide around bends could find itself promoted simply through attrition.
3:30 — Bill & Teresa Florentines 50th Anniversary Handicap Steeple Chase (ARC Summer Chase Series Qualifier)
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners
Achille Des Rocs to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Achille Des Rocs led, as the map showed.

Mr McWhinny won at 1.91 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Achille Des Rocs
Prominent · 2
Maggies BoyTom Creen
Midfield · 1
Mr McWhinny
Hold Up · 1
Clean Getaway
Achille Des Rocs is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with only four rivals to contest the early gallop, will stride into a comfortable, uncontested lead from the off — expect a controlled, sustainable pace over 2m3½f on good ground at Sedgefield that will not stretch this small field early but will test stamina into the back straight on the final circuit. Maggies Boy, Tom Creen, and the two redistributed types will track at varying distances, but none are genuine leaders and none will force Achille Des Rocs to go faster than he chooses. The Strand Scorecard has Clean Getaway as the selection and Mr McWhinny as the danger, and while both hold sound form credentials, it is worth noting that this field contains more prominent-running types than the race shape can accommodate: Clean Getaway is mapped to a hold-up role and Mr McWhinny to midfield because there is simply no room for both to race where they want, which tempers their prospects in the race's most likely shape. A front-runner dictating a measured, uncontested pace on good ground over this trip strongly favours prominent-to-pace runners who can travel smoothly behind the leader and pick him off at the last — horses that need to be produced from off the pace in a slowly-run affair will find the race shape working against them.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Achille Des Rocs Controls
68% probability
If Achille Des Rocs bowls along at his own pace and none of the prominent runners can sustain the pressure over the final two fences.
Achille Des Rocs sets a measured gallop, remains unheaded throughout, and his rivals' attempts to close simply arrive too late given his head start on the jumping; horses who have tracked him closely all race and can pick up off a genuine pace benefit most.
Maggies BoyTom CreenMr McWhinnyClean Getaway
B
Prominent Poacher Strikes
18% probability
If a horse tracking Achille Des Rocs in second or third looms upsides at the second-last and outjumps him to the line.
With the pace controlled, a prominent racer who has conserved energy through the backstraight can challenge Achille Des Rocs at the business end and exploit his known tendency to fade in the finish; the good ground and manageable fractions suit a horse with enough class to sit handy without burning fuel.
Mr McWhinnyMaggies BoyClean GetawayTom Creen
C
Pace Collapses Late
9% probability
If Achille Des Rocs's finish fade is severe and two or more rivals close simultaneously into the final fence.
Should Achille Des Rocs empty out dramatically coming down the home straight, the race opens up for any prominent runner who has been produced with a well-timed challenge; Clean Getaway's consistent placed record suggests the ability to be there late, even if forced to race further back than ideal.
Clean GetawayMaggies BoyMr McWhinnyTom Creen
D
Outsider Benefits From Chaos
5% probability
If multiple jumping errors or fallers disrupt the race order and a horse stationed off the pace inherits a clear run.
A small-field chase at this level can occasionally be overturned by mishap rather than merit; Tom Creen's experience over fences at 11 years old means he will keep jumping and stay out of trouble if rivals come to grief, giving him an outside chance of a place at worst.
Tom CreenClean GetawayMaggies BoyMr McWhinny

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHAchille Des RocsvMaggies BoyvTom CreentpMr McWhinnytClean Getawayp5. Achille Des Rocs1. Maggies Boy2. Tom Creen3. Mr McWhinny4. Clean Getaway
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Watch whether Achille Des Rocs is allowed to dictate completely unchallenged — if Maggies Boy or Tom Creen push into his slipstream early and apply even modest jumping pressure, his known tendency to fade in the finish becomes a significant vulnerability at the second-last.
WATCH
Monitor Mr McWhinny's starting position at the tape — if he breaks sharply and manages to grab a prominent berth before others react, his excellent recent form (three wins/places from last four) makes him considerably more dangerous than his redistributed midfield mapping suggests.
WATCH
Clean Getaway's visor-free record at this track should be checked: forced to race further back than natural in a slowly-run chase of just five runners, she may face a flat-footed task if Achille Des Rocs gets the race truly to himself and the gap at the last is too large to bridge.
NOTE
Good ground is confirmed across the entire Sedgefield card with no variation — no horse carries a going concern today, so stamina for the 2m3½f trip over fences, not ground sensitivity, will be the defining physical test in the home straight.
NOTE
With only five runners and one genuine front-runner, the early jumping order at the first two fences will almost certainly set the positions that hold to the home turn — any horse that makes an error in the opening quarter mile will find it very difficult to recover ground in such a small, compact field.
4:00 — Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Hurdle Race
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Tracker Issue likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Beny Nahar Road and Yanka Blue and Bannister led; the map had Tracker Issue in front.

Aimeric won at 3.75 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Tracker Issue
Prominent · 2
AimericBodygroove
Midfield · 4
RoadshowWilliam YeatsYanka BlueJoto
Hold Up · 3
Beny Nahar RoadLone StarBannister
Tracker Issue is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no rival willing or able to press them early, Ryan Mania can dictate a comfortable, controlled gallop across Sedgefield's undulating 2m4f on genuine Good ground. That sustainable tempo benefits horses who can travel in behind without wasting energy, as the race will likely be run at a measured pace before sharpening from the third-last. William Yeats (midfield), Roadshow (midfield), and Yanka Blue (midfield) are all better placed to exploit a held-up scenario than the prominent types, who must do extra work to hold their positions on limited petrol. The pace shape firmly favours mid-to-rear runners who can pick up ground through the final two flights, with William Yeats — the Strand Scorecard's top selection — ideally suited to a race run at this controlled tempo given recent course-and-distance form and a 17-day freshener.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Controlled Pace, Late Surge
67% probability
If Tracker Issue dictates an unchallenged, honest gallop and midfield runners travel comfortably before unleashing late runs.
Tracker Issue sets the tempo without pressure, leaving enough energy reserves for those tracking at midfield to accelerate from the third-last; Good ground suits a clean, progressive finish without the surface punishing stamina.
William YeatsRoadshowYanka BlueLone Star
B
Prominent Hold, Grind It Out
16% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady and a prominent mover conserves enough to repel late challengers.
Aimeric or Bodygroove sit close to Tracker Issue and benefit from a draught before kicking two out; the Sedgefield finish can favour those who take their effort earlier when the field is slow to wind up.
AimericBodygrooveTracker IssueBannister
C
Closers Swamp The Field
11% probability
If the tempo is fractionally too slow, bunching the field entering the straight, triggering a dash that suits hold-up specialists.
Lone Star and Bannister, both hold-up types with sound Good-ground records, get a tow into contention; Lone Star's 5-day turnaround is a slight concern but Philip Kirby's 3/12 trainer form in the window keeps them relevant.
Lone StarBannisterBeny Nahar RoadWilliam Yeats
D
Front Runner Sustains
6% probability
If Tracker Issue, despite the STYLE_FIT discount for racing out of role, finds a true rhythm and simply outstays the field.
A very steady pace could allow Tracker Issue to slip rivals on the turn and hold a lead that the midfield runners — having misjudged the tempo — cannot close down inside the final flight.
Tracker IssueAimericRoadshowYanka Blue

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHTracker IssueAimericBodygrooveRoadshowtpWilliam YeatstYanka BlueJotoBeny Nahar RoadtLone StartBannister5. Tracker Issue6. Aimeric7. Bodygroove2. Roadshow1. William Yeats3. Yanka Blue8. Joto9. Beny Nahar Road4. Lone Star10. Bannister
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
William Yeats is the Strand Scorecard top selection — watch for Jonathan England to settle him in midfield early and deliver a patient run from the third-last, where his Good-ground form is directly relevant.
WATCH
Aimeric's flagged tendency to fade in the finish is a live in-running risk; if Sean Quinlan sends him forward too aggressively in the middle mile, he may deliver his effort too soon and empty before the last.
WATCH
Bodygroove's 171-day absence is the longest layoff in the field — watch for signs of rustiness at the early hurdles and monitor whether Brian Hughes decides to be conservative or ambitious with a horse that may need the run.
NOTE
Tracker Issue's STYLE_FIT discount (0.94) means the front-running position is plausible but the horse's overall chance deserves scepticism; if Ryan Mania is niggled at before halfway, the façade of controlled pace collapses quickly.
NOTE
Yanka Blue's amateur rider (7lb claim, OR 78) could be the surprise cover in a slowly-run race — watch whether Mr James Murray positions them toward the outside approaching the home straight to secure a clear run.
4:30 — Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle Race
2m1f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Character Testing likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Red Trail led; the map had Character Testing in front.

Littletown Lad won at 2.25 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Character Testing
Prominent · 3
Expert AnalysisTwilight SafariScoro
Midfield · 3
Mr GlobalistFar Away WestPeace Motivator
Hold Up · 3
KarthalaLittletown LadRed Trail
Character Testing is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no serious challenger disputing the lead, is likely to bowl along at a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good ground at Sedgefield — a track where front-runners are not automatically punished but where the pace must be honest enough to stretch hold-up types. Peace Motivator is a genuine hold-up horse whose natural position is at the rear, but with the field containing more hold-up types than slots at the back, they are mapped to midfield — their true finishing kick may be compromised if they cannot settle wide of the pace. Expert Analysis, Scoro, and Twilight Safari will look to slot prominently behind Character Testing, meaning the early order could be congested from second to fifth, creating a compressed mid-race shape that squeezes the gaps for late closers. The race shape — one genuine pace-setter, honest Good ground, and a field that stacks up behind the leader — is most likely to produce a race where prominent racers travelling well off the pace pick up the pieces in the straight, with Karthala and Littletown Lad, the two Strand Scorecard selections, ideally suited as hold-up horses able to deliver late runs on a track where the downhill run to the last gives closers their chance.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Controlled Pace, Closers Strike
65% probability
If Character Testing bowls along at a measured gallop, setting an honest but not suicidal tempo, allowing hold-up runners to coast into position on the descent.
Character Testing's uncontested lead produces a sound gallop that stretches the field without burning them off, leaving Karthala and Littletown Lad with a clean passage to pounce between the last two flights.
KarthalaLittletown LadExpert AnalysisTwilight Safari
B
Front Runner Holds On
18% probability
If Character Testing dictates a moderate, unchallenged tempo and the pack fails to apply pressure until it is too late.
With no rival willing to fire an early shot, Character Testing controls every yard and has enough in reserve to kick for home at the second-last before closers can close the gap.
Character TestingExpert AnalysisScoroTwilight Safari
C
Prominent Types Dominate
11% probability
If the compressed mid-race pack produces a rough, scrappy gallop that blunts the hold-up horses' finishing kicks.
Expert Analysis and Twilight Safari, tracking the pace throughout, are handily placed when the race quickens and benefit from a messy race shape that disadvantages horses wide or deep in the field.
Expert AnalysisTwilight SafariScoroCharacter Testing
D
Late Closers Pounce
6% probability
If Character Testing sets a genuinely strong gallop that burns up the prominent types, leaving a gap for the deepest hold-up runners to come through late.
This scenario requires Peace Motivator to function as a true hold-up runner from the back — but with redistribution likely meaning they cannot fully settle, and Red Trail's form showing repeated fades, this shape is the least reliable of the four.
Littletown LadRed TrailPeace MotivatorMr Globalist

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHCharacter Testi…tvExpert AnalysisTwilight SafariScorotpMr GlobalistpFar Away WesttPeace MotivatortKarthalatvLittletown LadtRed Trailht5. Character Testing3. Expert Analysis4. Twilight Safari6. Scoro7. Mr Globalist8. Far Away West9. Peace Motivator1. Karthala2. Littletown Lad10. Red Trail
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Character Testing's early jump and jumping fluency is critical — if he meets a flight wrong and checks, the absence of any pace backup could produce a scrambled, unpredictable race shape that overturns the anticipated scenario.|
WATCH
Peace Motivator ran just five days ago and flags "fades in finish" — watch in-running for any sign of distress or lack of response from the second-last, which could cause interference for closers trying to thread through.|
WATCH
Far Away West is 482 days absent with a hurdle fall in his form string — his behaviour at the start and at the first flight is the key early indicator of whether he is a live runner or an unpredictable element in the early race traffic.|
NOTE
Karthala's 41-day break means his sharpness at the start should be monitored — if William Shanahan finds him slow to stride forward, the hold-up position could become exaggerated and compromise his usual late run on a tight Sedgefield circuit.|
NOTE
The 163lb top weight on Expert Analysis and the cluster of 145lb runners at the bottom create a significant weight spread — if the pace is generous, watch whether the lighter-weighted hold-up horses travel more easily than expected into the straight.|

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 14 September 2026.

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Sedgefield pace map, 14 September 2026 — PaceMap