Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
1:40 — Ct Electrical Maiden Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · MDN · 12 runners
No obvious leaderFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Unknown Fortune won at 26.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 0
None
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 8
Unknown FortuneReturning OfficerHey SirA Mayo BreezeNile StarBrother HollieGethegoodtimesrollTribal
Hold Up · 4
Tommy Go MaithRosenborgMiddlethird MarvelBoo Radley
With no confirmed front-runner in the field, this 2m1½f maiden hurdle on good-to-firm ground at Sligo is set to drift into a moderately-run affair with the pace controlled by whoever takes it up by default — likely one of the unknown-style runners such as Hey Sir, Returning Officer, or Unknown Fortune, none of whom have a clear front-running profile but may push forward simply to avoid being last. The absence of a genuine pace-setter on good-to-firm ground means fractions will be uneven, with a bunched mid-race before a sprint-style finish kicks off from the final turn — a test that will expose stamina limitations rather than reward pure closing kicks. The entire field is dominated by hold-up types, and with Boo Radley, Rosenborg, Middlethird Marvel, Tommy Go Maith, and Gethegoodtimesroll all naturally wanting to come from behind, the final half-mile will be an awkward scrimmage rather than a clean sweep. This shape favours whoever can secure a prominent mid-pack position and travel smoothly into the sprint — horses that can quicken off a slow pace with clean jumping will have the decisive edge over pure hold-up gallopers; the field holds more hold-up types than the race can accommodate at the rear, with A Mayo Breeze, Nile Star, Brother Hollie, Tribal, and Gethegoodtimesroll all redistributed — of these, Returning Officer and Hey Sir are most likely to actually press forward and secure a tactical position.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Slow Pace Sprint Finish
43% probability
If the race drifts at a false gallop and becomes a bunched sprint from the final hurdle
With no front-runner to set genuine fractions on good-to-firm ground, the field compresses into a tight pack and the winner will be the horse that quickens fastest off a slow pace; prominent-tracking types with a sharp turn of foot hold the strongest hand here.
Hey SirReturning OfficerBoo RadleyRosenborg
B
Prominent Tracker Leads Home
28% probability
If one of the unknown-style horses pushes forward early and controls a steady tempo to the last
A controlled front-running display at an honest but not brutal gallop would suit a horse able to jump fluently and stay on strongly on good-to-firm; the winner would be a mid-pack tracker who picks off the leader approaching the last.
Returning OfficerHey SirUnknown FortuneBoo Radley
C
Hold-Up Closers Pounce Late
18% probability
If the pace quickens significantly from halfway and genuine hold-up runners are able to find clear daylight late
Despite the redistribution of several natural hold-up types into midfield on the map, Boo Radley and Rosenborg are true closers who could benefit if the race truly develops a strong gallop; however this scenario is discounted because the field's genuine hold-up horses are racing out of role and the closing kick in a bunched finish is unreliable here.
Boo RadleyRosenborgA Mayo BreezeMiddlethird Marvel
D
Chaos And Carnage Finish
11% probability
If the race falls apart over the final hurdles with jumping errors causing interference that reshuffles the order
On good-to-firm ground with maiden hurdlers, jumping errors late in the race could promote a latent staying type who survives the carnage; the winner in this shape would be a sturdy, uncomplicated jumper who keeps finding.
Unknown FortuneBrother HollieGethegoodtimesrollTommy Go Maith
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Returning Officer and Hey Sir are the two unknown-style runners most likely to fill the pace vacuum — watch at the start to see which one pushes forward, as whoever leads will have a significant tactical advantage in a sprint finish with no natural front-runner.
WATCH
Boo Radley has the Mullins yard behind him after a 276-day absence, but watch for signs of freshness or rustiness at the first hurdle — if he jumps poorly he will be fighting the race shape from the outset.
WATCH
Good-to-firm ground at Sligo will put a premium on clean jumping, and with seven horses carrying a fade-in-finish flag or a hold-up style that cannot be fulfilled, watch for a bunched finish over the last two hurdles where interference is a real risk.
NOTE
Nile Star and A Mayo Breeze both ran just nine days and 261 days ago respectively — the contrast in freshness between these redistributed hold-up types is worth monitoring as the race develops, since neither is well positioned in the race shape regardless of fitness.
1:45 — Durkin Bros. Electrical Maiden Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · MDN · 14 runners
Beat The Devil likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Manoir De Mirande led; the map had Beat The Devil in front.
Manoir De Mirande won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Beat The Devil
Prominent · 3
Manoir De MirandeHyggeWhats New
Midfield · 6
The Chancie GreySylvie PowerNoble RoccoMegaballEmmamiaGeorg Zhukov
Hold Up · 4
Pebble IslandI'm All InCasheldale LassBobby Kirova
Beat The Devil is the one confirmed front-runner in this 14-runner maiden hurdle on Good to Firm ground at Sligo, and with no rival likely to press hard for the lead, the pace should be controlled and sustainable rather than frenetic. Behind the leader, Hygge, Manoir De Mirande, and Whats New are genuine prominent types who will track close to the speed, creating a compact early order that could compress the field and limit the scope for late closers. The hold-up brigade — Casheldale Lass, Bobby Kirova, Pebble Island, and I'm All In — will need the pace to collapse in the home straight to make meaningful late ground, which is less likely given a single uncontested leader on fast ground. This shape clearly favours prominent racers who can travel smoothly just off Beat The Devil and produce a clean jump at the last, with the off-the-pace types at a structural disadvantage unless the leader sets a genuinely strong gallop. The field holds more hold-up types than can realistically operate deep in the field; Georg Zhukov is a genuine hold-up horse displaced to midfield on the map, and Beat The Devil is shown in the prominent zone despite its primary role as the leader, meaning both are mapped out of their natural territory.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Strike
58% probability
If Beat The Devil dictates a measured gallop and prominent trackers like Hygge or Manoir De Mirande travel smoothly before striking from two out.
Beat The Devil sets a contained pace that rewards horses travelling with cover just behind, and the Good to Firm surface keeps the race from turning into a stamina grind that suits deep closers. Hygge's consistent placed form and Manoir De Mirande's recent course-distance profile make them the primary beneficiaries of this most likely shape.
HyggeManoir De MirandeWhats NewBeat The Devil
B
Front Runner Holds On
20% probability
If Beat The Devil is allowed to stride clear from the front and the prominent horses fail to close the gap on the run-in.
With no pressure on the leader and a fast-topped surface rewarding fluency, an uncontested Beat The Devil can dictate every yard and still have reserves for the finish. This scenario is realistic given the confirmed absence of any natural front-running rival to force the pace.
Beat The DevilWhats NewHyggeNoble Rocco
C
Late Closers Pounce
14% probability
If the early pace is stronger than expected and the lead horses tie up in the final stages, allowing the hold-up runners to close.
Casheldale Lass has solid placed form on similar going and Pebble Island has shown placed form at the trip, giving them the best closing profiles if the front end weakens. However, this scenario is structurally less likely given a lone, uncontested front-runner on fast ground who has no reason to overextend.
If one of the lightly raced unexposed runners — Emmamia, Megaball, or Sylvie Power — produces a performance well above their profile on debut.
An unexposed horse carrying unknown ability can disrupt any predicted race shape, and Gordon Elliott's Noble Rocco and the Irish handler-trained newcomers have each shown only glimpses so far. This scenario is the least structured and hardest to predict, reserved for a genuine upset from an unknown quantity.
Noble RoccoEmmamiaMegaballSylvie Power
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hygge is the most consistent performer in this field with four consecutive placed runs and two similar-going wins — watch for Gordon Elliott's team to have her travelling sweetly off the pace through the early stages before pressing from two out.
WATCH
Beat The Devil's uncontested lead is the key structural variable — if anything flukes its way to the front or challenges early, the entire pace dynamic shifts and hold-up horses gain a material chance.
WATCH
Manoir De Mirande ran just six days ago; watch for any signs of a hard race on that occasion and monitor market moves as a guide to whether Elliott sends him out fresh or as a prep.
NOTE
Georg Zhukov carries a 98-day absence and is a genuine hold-up type compressed further forward on the map than natural — watch whether the jockey attempts to drop him out early and whether that creates traffic issues in a 14-runner field.
NOTE
Three Gordon Elliott runners (Hygge, Manoir De Mirande, Noble Rocco) create an interesting team dynamic — watch which receives the stronger market support as a pointer to which Elliott considers his primary chance.
2:15 — Racing Tv Irish Ebf Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Kenisa Sport likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Crystabel won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Kenisa Sport
Prominent · 3
Our Lucky LadyRadar AheadKeilah
Midfield · 3
AlbatalaCrystabelSteps In The Sand
Hold Up · 3
Beauforts StormSplashing OutDoyen Magic
Kenisa Sport is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger likely to contest the lead, she can dictate terms at a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground at Sligo. Behind her, Our Lucky Lady, Radar Ahead, and Keilah are all natural prominent racers who will press for position just off the pace, creating a compact, moderately-paced early shape rather than a true test. The field contains more prominent-racing types than can realistically hold that position: Albatala, Crystabel, and Steps In The Sand are all genuine front-rank horses by nature but have been redistributed to midfield on the map because Kenisa Sport, Our Lucky Lady, Radar Ahead, and Keilah are most likely to secure the forward slots ahead of them. With a single uncontested leader setting a measured tempo, this race shape strongly favours prominent racers who travel close to the pace throughout and have the class and ground-speed to quicken on a flat, fast-ground circuit — hold-up horses tracking from the rear face a longer run at it and must hope the pace honest enough to bring them into play.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Kenisa Sport Controls Throughout
62% probability
If Kenisa Sport leads unchallenged and sets a fair but undemanding tempo that stretches the field without burning herself out.
She dictates every yard from the front, with the prominent brigade of Our Lucky Lady, Radar Ahead, and Keilah tracking but never truly threatening her rhythm; on Good to Firm ground her class at OR 120 and proven front-running wins (2W in similar going) give her the advantage at the last. Horses who travel prominently throughout without overspending energy early are rewarded as the pace is never punishing.
Kenisa SportOur Lucky LadyRadar AheadKeilah
B
Prominent Racer Pounces Late
20% probability
If Kenisa Sport's long absence (290 days) tells on her jumping or stamina and a prominent tracker swoops inside the final flight.
Our Lucky Lady (three wins in similar going, OR 111, claiming rider) or Radar Ahead are ideally positioned to inherit the lead if the front-runner fades, having been travelling comfortably throughout without expending excess energy.
Our Lucky LadyRadar AheadKeilahCrystabel
C
Hold-Up Horse Finishes Fast
11% probability
If the pace proves genuinely strong enough to stretch the field and create a true run-in for hold-up horses coming from off the bridle.
Splashing Out (recent form 1-3, won in Good going over a similar trip) and Beauforts Storm are the most credible closers, but they need things to fall perfectly and the controlled pace scenario makes this less likely.
Splashing OutBeauforts StormDoyen MagicCrystabel
D
Complete Pace Collapse
7% probability
If the prominent runners overpace early and the whole field comes together turning for home in a scramble.
A total unravelling of the front group would open the door for Doyen Magic or Steps In The Sand who are fresh (29 days) and carry lower weights, but this is a low-probability outcome given Kenisa Sport's likely ability to control the tempo unchallenged.
Doyen MagicSteps In The SandAlbatalaSplashing Out
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Kenisa Sport's 290-day absence is the single biggest race-changer — watch her jumping in the early stages for any sign of rustiness, as a blunder or loss of fluency could immediately rebalance the whole race shape and open the door for Our Lucky Lady.
WATCH
Albatala, Crystabel, and Steps In The Sand are all naturally prominent horses squeezed into the midfield by this pace dynamic — if any of them breaks sharply and forces their way to the front, it could unexpectedly pressurise Kenisa Sport and turn a controlled pace into a contested one.
WATCH
Radar Ahead ran just eight days ago — monitor whether that quick turnaround has blunted her edge, particularly as her OR 108 represents a step up in class versus recent runs and her trainer's 0/16 14-day record suggests yard form is flat.
NOTE
Good to Firm ground is faster than anything Doyen Magic has encountered in her relevant form entries — if the going rides quicker than expected, watch for her to lose her place early and become irrelevant, confirming this as a pace-favouring surface.
NOTE
Splashing Out (hood, hold-up) and Beauforts Storm are the only two true closers in the field — if either is seen travelling smoothly and making ground on the bridle approaching two out, it would be a strong signal that the gallop has been stronger than the pace map projects.
2:50 — Foley's Bar & Off Licence Handicap Hurdle
2m1½f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
Stormbreaker likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Wolf Prince led; the map had Stormbreaker in front.
Wolf Prince won at 7.50 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Stormbreaker
Prominent · 4
BridgeheadTell Us ThisListentillitellyeaDairy Force
Midfield · 3
Maxwell SmartMary's PridePhoenix Arizona
Hold Up · 4
Wolf PrinceOne Last TangoGrange WalkCappucino
Stormbreaker is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with just one horse genuinely likely to press from the front, sets up a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good to Firm ground at Sligo. Tell Us This, Bridgehead, and Dairy Force are the likeliest prominent companions, sitting just off the leader rather than challenging for the lead, which means Stormbreaker can dictate without significant early pressure. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all occupy their natural position — Maxwell Smart, Mary's Pride, and Phoenix Arizona are true pace/prominent horses pushed back into midfield by the volume of pace, meaning their chance is compromised by having to race out of role. This shape — a single leader setting a fair but uncontested tempo on fast ground over a sharp 2m1½f circuit — firmly favours hold-up horses who can travel smoothly in behind and produce a sustained run from two out, rewarding those with the class and fitness to close from off the pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stormbreaker Controls; Closers Finish
54% probability
If Stormbreaker leads uncontested at a fair clip and the hold-up runners find clear air turning for home.
Stormbreaker sets a measured pace that keeps the race honest without burning off the field, and the genuine hold-up performers who have been travelling in behind deliver their finishing efforts from the second-last flight; on Good to Firm ground this scenario rewards horses with proven form on similar going over this trip.
Wolf PrinceCappucinoBridgeheadTell Us This
B
Prominent Pair Battle It Out
22% probability
If Tell Us This and Bridgehead push Stormbreaker harder than expected and the race is run at a genuine pace from flag to finish.
A stronger gallop stretches the field and those racing prominently but with stamina reserves — particularly horses with recent course-and-distance form — are best placed to sustain their effort to the line; the hold-up horses may find the gaps shut or arrive too late.
Tell Us ThisBridgeheadDairy ForceStormbreaker
C
Pace Collapse; Held-Up Horse Swoops
15% probability
If Stormbreaker and the prominent horses go overly steady and the race becomes a sprint from the second-last.
A falsely run race over a sharp Sligo circuit produces a messy finish where those positioned just off the pace in the first half of the field have the advantage, as acceleration from the rear is difficult when the tempo suddenly quickens; horses with a genuine turn of foot and recent sharp form benefit most.
CappucinoWolf PrinceGrange WalkOne Last Tango
D
Front Runner Holds On
9% probability
If Stormbreaker builds an unassailable lead and the closers are left with too much to do.
Sligo's tight circuit and fast ground can occasionally allow a front-runner to steal an uncontested advantage that proves beyond catching, particularly if the hold-up horses are shuffled back or meet traffic; this is the least likely shape given the number of prominent types who will keep Stormbreaker honest.
StormbreakerTell Us ThisBridgeheadDairy Force
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Wolf Prince's 807-day absence is the single biggest unknown in the race — if Aidan Melia has him ready to fire first time back, the hold-up profile and Good-going form make him dangerous, but any sign of rustiness and he will be found out on this sharp circuit.
WATCH
Maxwell Smart, Mary's Pride, and Phoenix Arizona are all natural pace or hold-up horses who will be competing for fewer natural positions than their instincts demand — watch for bumping and shuffling as the tape rises, which could compromise several runners' runs simultaneously.
WATCH
Dairy Force's 10-day turnaround for Gordon Elliott is worth monitoring in the paddock; fit horses can go quickly back to the well at this level but the hood and a pattern of placed efforts without winning raises the question of whether he finds a way to win today.
NOTE
Tell Us This is the form anchor of the race — a course-and-distance winner 51 days ago on Good ground with a prominent style that should see him positioned perfectly; his chance holds across multiple scenarios and he is the reference point for what a winning time will require.
NOTE
Good to Firm ground at Sligo will place a premium on jumping fluency — the sharp circuit punishes even a minor jumping error at pace, and runners with jumping concerns (Stormbreaker's long layoff, One Last Tango's pulled-up recent run) are worth watching carefully at the first few hurdles.
4:00 — Kilcawley Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)
2m4f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Poppycon likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Lilac Lady led; the map had Poppycon in front.
Lilac Lady won at 9.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Poppycon
Prominent · 4
LadiamFine PrintLarkins LaneFinnicky Filly
Midfield · 8
Go To TownPoetic FocusMother ShipFrontier RoseTellmemamemaDream ShaperMr ErwittSekifi
Poppycon is the lone confirmed front-runner in this 18-runner handicap hurdle over 2m4f at Sligo, and with no horse genuinely threatening to push her across the line she is set to control proceedings at a sustainable, uncontested tempo on Good to Firm ground. Fine Print, Larkins Lane, and Ladiam are the natural prominent types who will track closely, creating a compact lead group rather than a strung-out gallop, which keeps the pace honest without becoming scorching. The field is overloaded with hold-up horses — Mother Ship, Frontier Rose, Tellmemamema, Dream Shaper, Mr Erwitt, and Sekifi are all genuine rear-of-field operators who have been mapped to midfield simply because there is insufficient room at the back for all of them, meaning several will race out of their preferred position and their finishing kicks may be compromised. This controlled, single-pace scenario strongly favours horses racing prominently or in close pursuit of the leader, specifically those with the stamina to sustain a forward position into the straight without being softened by a genuine searching gallop.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Poppycon Controls, Prominent Wins
52% probability
If Poppycon bowls along at a controlled clip unchallenged and prominent trackers conserve energy to pounce from the second-last.
Poppycon sets a manageable tempo that suits horses sitting second or third who can produce a clean jump at the last two flights and pick her off on the run-in; on Good to Firm ground at Sligo the leader rarely survives if a well-placed chaser has petrol left. Larkins Lane and Ladiam, both experienced prominent racers with Sligo-suitable profiles and good good-ground records, are the types whose chance is maximised in this controlled-pace shape.
Larkins LaneLadiamFine PrintCherry Red
B
Poppycon Steals It Wire-to-Wire
22% probability
If the pace is truly uncontested and the prominent trackers fail to make up ground turning for home on fast ground.
Poppycon dictates every yard, the field strings out late, and no single challenger has enough momentum off a slow gallop to collar her in time; her OR of 94 and a course that suits front-runners who can dictate on a flat-ish circuit makes this a live threat. The Good to Firm conditions help a front-runner conserve energy through the early stages and have enough left for the finish.
PoppyconFine PrintLarkins LaneFinnicky Filly
C
Midfield Horse Pounces Late
17% probability
If the pace quickens sufficiently in the back straight to flatten the prominent horses and a well-placed midfield runner has the class to pick through.
Cherry Red or Lilac Lady, racing just off the pace, could benefit if the leaders tire on the flat of the final circuit and a surge from the rear materialises; Cherry Red won last time out over 18f on Good and retains claims if her finishing fade is managed by a confident hold-up ride from Ben Harvey. This scenario is modestly discounted because several natural hold-up horses have been displaced into midfield and may not deliver the late thrust their style implies.
Cherry RedLilac LadyGo To TownCornaroya Rocco
D
Genuine Closers Arrive Late
9% probability
If pace is strong enough to burn off the lead group and a true hold-up horse survives the traffic in an 18-runner field to unleash a late run.
This scenario demands the pace to be genuinely fierce, which the race shape does not support given a single uncontested front-runner; horses like Frontier Rose, Tellmemamema, and Mother Ship are natural rear-of-field types but are mapped forward and are racing partially out of role, materially reducing the likelihood of a clean late delivery. The probability is heavily discounted because the horses who would win this shape are not guaranteed to secure their ideal position.
Frontier RoseMother ShipTellmemamemaPapagei
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Larkins Lane is the prominent horse whose back-to-back wins and active trainer form make her the most dangerous in the likely race shape — watch if she travels sweetly in third or fourth from the outset.
KEY
Ladiam holds a strong similar-going profile and a prominent style that fits perfectly; the absence of a declared jockey is the only cloud and must be monitored before the off.
WATCH
Mother Ship and Ladiam both have no jockey listed — if either is a non-runner or takes a conditional jockey at short notice, the market and race shape both shift.
WATCH
Mr Erwitt (267 days off) and Dream Shaper (112 days off) are major fitness queries; if either shows unexpected market support it would be a significant stable confidence signal worth noting.
NOTE
Watch the early gallop rate from Poppycon — if Fine Print or Larkins Lane push up and force a quicker tempo than expected, the race shape flips from a slow-pace prominent benefit to a genuine test of stamina that could open the door for Cherry Red or Lilac Lady.
4:35 — Sligo Park Hotel Handicap Hurdle
3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Kalanisi Flash likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Je Suis and Streets Of Doyen led; the map had Kalanisi Flash in front.
Wild Mandate won at 13.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.
2 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Joe's TurnLe Grand VertBallagh StarBack The WestStrong Contender
Hold Up · 5
Golden TempleStreets Of DoyenJustatanKazbekJe Suis
Kalanisi Flash is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 17-horse field and should lead from the outset over this 3m1½f trip at Sligo on Good to Firm ground, setting a controlled, sustainable tempo with no genuine rival willing or able to challenge for the lead. Behind him, a cluster of prominent types — Evans Secret, Cornmarket, Sphagnum, Smallcraftwarning, Tango Theatre and Wild Mandate — will jostle for early position in the first few furlongs, creating pressure in the chasing group even if the leader himself travels easily. The field contains significantly more front-running and prominent-minded horses than can all secure their natural position; Joe's Turn, Ballagh Star, Le Grand Vert and Back The West are all genuine prominent racers who are likely to be shuffled back against their wishes, with Evans Secret and Sphagnum — both with strong Good-ground form at this sort of trip — best placed to actually sit where they want. With one honest pace-setter dictating an even gallop over a searching trip, this race shape favours resolute, prominent-to-midfield types who can travel comfortably just off the leader and sustain their effort through the final mile, rather than hold-up horses who will face a wall of traffic in a big field on a tight circuit.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Kalanisi Flash Controls
46% probability
If Kalanisi Flash leads at a fair clip and the chasing pack burns each other out competing for the prominent positions behind him.
The solo front-runner dictates terms unchallenged on a Good to Firm surface that suits his form profile, and the field strings out as the prominent brigade traffic-jams behind; horses that travel smoothly just off the pace inherit the race when the scramblers tire.
Evans SecretSphagnumCornmarketTango Theatre
B
Prominent Types War
28% probability
If the displaced prominent runners — Joe's Turn, Le Grand Vert and Ballagh Star — force their way forward and push the early pace beyond Kalanisi Flash's comfort zone.
A contested gallop from the front quickens the race up early and raises the toll on anything racing keenly in the first third; horses with the class and stamina to sit just off a hot pace and still find in the straight benefit most.
Evans SecretCornmarketLe Grand VertJoe's Turn
C
Closers Deliver Late
16% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and leave the rear genuinely detached, creating a true end-to-end stamina test.
Hold-up horses that have been squeezed to the back against their will would need an unusually flat-out gallop to make ground across 3m1½f at Sligo; Streets Of Doyen, with the right sort of trip form, and Je Suis could theoretically benefit but the conditions for this are narrow given no truly front-running pace battle is expected.
Streets Of DoyenJe SuisJustatanKazbek
D
Midfield Grind Prevails
10% probability
If the race develops at a moderate tempo that compacts the field into a bunch, turning the finish into a rough, attritional scramble.
A messy, compressed finish in a 17-runner field on a tight circuit favours horses with course experience and tactical adaptability; runners tagged as redistributed out-of-role types will struggle to find daylight but those with previous Sligo or sharp-track form may be able to weave through.
SmallcraftwarningTango TheatreWild MandateBack The West
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Cornmarket's 181-day absence (including 70-day Flat break) is the single biggest risk factor — watch the market move in the final hour; if he drifts, fitness is suspect and his prominent role becomes a liability.
KEY
The opening half-mile is where the race could be made or broken: Joe's Turn, Le Grand Vert, Ballagh Star and Back The West will all attempt to push forward against their redistributed positions, creating a traffic scramble that could unsettle Evans Secret and Sphagnum.
WATCH
Kalanisi Flash's 74-day lay-off and tongue-tie return under an apprentice (Dylan Kidd 7lb) for a yard striking at 1/22 in 14 days — if he idles or is caught cold at the start, the race loses its only confirmed pace anchor and turns chaotic.
WATCH
Golden Temple carries the ⚠ fade-in-finish tag and is a hold-up horse in a big field at 3m1½f — watch for him to be outpaced before the home turn if the pace is honest; his recent record of six consecutive non-placed runs suggests he is vulnerable.
NOTE
Smallcraftwarning ran just 10 days ago — monitor for any market drift that might signal a quick turnaround concern, but if fresh enough his exceptional Good-ground record (14/15) makes him worth tracking through the race as a place benchmark.
5:10 — Clayton Hotel Mares Flat Race
2m2½f · Good · DEFAULT · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.