Archive›Sligo · 12 May 2026

Sligo

12 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:27 — Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle

2m2f · Good · MDN · 16 runners

William F Browne likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Lilac Lady led; the map had William F Browne in front.

Hey Now won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

William F Browne

Prominent · 2

Game PointSaint Peregrine

Midfield · 8

Tawny LeaStrategic MoveCasual WaterDahabFinns FirstLilac LadyAntoine De ParisScreaming Eagle

Hold Up · 5

Ludus MagnusFirst AscentDenham RockHey NowAtlantic Gamble

William F Browne is the only confirmed front runner in this 16-runner field, meaning he can dictate a comfortable, uncontested pace from the front. Game Point may sit prominently behind him, but the bulk of this large field comprises hold-up horses including Hey Now, First Ascent, Lilac Lady, and the lightly-raced Strategic Move. With minimal early pace pressure, the tempo will be moderate early before quickening from the second-last hurdle. This tactical setup strongly favours the prominent racers and early positioned horses who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will plague the hold-up brigade in such a large field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dictates

45% probability

If William F Browne jumps cleanly and sets sustainable fractions

He controls the race from pillar to post while the pack behind gets into trouble, allowing prominent racers to pick up the pieces. The moderate early pace suits horses that can sit handy and avoid the scrum.

William F BrowneGame PointSaint PeregrineStrategic Move

Prominent Takeover

30% probability

If Game Point or Saint Peregrine track the leader perfectly and pounce late

The race becomes a tactical affair where positioning trumps pure ability, with prominently-raced horses having crucial first run on the field. Hold-up horses get caught in traffic behind the large field.

Game PointSaint PeregrineStrategic MoveHey Now

Hold-Up Revival

15% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong or the front runners fade dramatically

Strategic Move and Hey Now get the strong gallop they need to unleash their finishing kicks from the rear. This requires the early leaders to go too fast or hit the wall completely.

Strategic MoveHey NowFirst AscentTawny Lea

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If William F Browne fades badly and no one takes up the running

The race becomes a sprint from the last hurdle with any horse in contention, creating a lottery finish. Multiple horses hit the front in the final furlong with the winner coming from anywhere.

Lilac LadyLudus MagnusDahabAtlantic Gamble

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

William F Browne's jumping fluency is crucial as the only pace angle - any early mistakes could derail the tempo completely

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe for hold-up horses like Strategic Move and Hey Now given the 16-runner field size

WATCH

Saint Peregrine needs to show he's back to his June form after 173 days off to be competitive from his prominent style

NOTE

Game Point's settling ability will determine if he can exploit his tactical advantage from a prominent position

NOTE

Strategic Move's market support will indicate connections' confidence in his lightly-raced profile

5:58 — DecoClip Construction Company Mares Maiden Hurdle

2m2f · Good · MDN · 17 runners

Beir Bua likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Beir Bua led, as the map showed.

Beir Bua won at 4.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Beir Bua

Prominent · 2

Lumiere Du LargeCrystabel

Midfield · 9

Tullyegan JetShegotrhythmtspareLeva DevaDont Break My WordChisel HillLouie's FollyCola BlazeBrosna QueenAnnalough

Hold Up · 5

UrinmydreamsOrioleColugoCircus HillKeilah

Beir Bua is the only confirmed front-runner and will set a sustainable pace from the front without pressure in this large maiden field. The prominent runners Crystabel and Lumiere Du Large will track behind, with the vast majority of the 17-runner field positioned in midfield or held up. This creates a scenario where the early pace will be moderate, setting up a long sprint from the final bend. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can sit close to Beir Bua and hold-up horses with finishing speed, as the lack of early pressure will preserve stamina for a competitive finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Wins

45% probability

If Crystabel or similar prominent runner can sit close to Beir Bua and outstay her

The moderate early pace preserves stamina for those tracking the leader, allowing them to maintain their position and find extra in the closing stages. Beir Bua may fade after doing the donkey work, with her tracker inheriting the lead.

CrystabelLumiere Du LargeBeir BuaLouie's Folly

Late Closer Strikes

30% probability

If the hold-up horses can get into contention and the pace becomes a sprint from 3f out

The lack of early pace means hold-up horses won't be too far back, and with Kennedy aboard, connections clearly expect a staying test that suits closers. A bunch finish develops where class and finishing kick decide.

Lumiere Du LargeKeilahLouie's FollyCircus Hill

Front Runner Holds On

15% probability

If Beir Bua gets easy fractions and the field can't close her down

Having made all successfully before, Beir Bua could exploit the lack of pace pressure to dictate throughout. Her prominent style becomes leading when unchallenged, and she proves too strong in the straight.

Beir BuaCrystabelLumiere Du LargeLouie's Folly

Outsider Surprise

10% probability

If one of the unexposed newcomers has significant improvement in them

Several lightly-raced types make debuts or have minimal experience, and in a weak maiden one could have been working significantly better at home. The moderate pace gives them time to find their rhythm.

Leva DevaShegotrhythmtspareDont Break My WordOriole

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Beir Bua could get easy fractions on the front end and prove very hard to peg back in the straight

WATCH

Lumiere Du Large has Jack Kennedy aboard for Gordon Elliott, suggesting they expect a big run despite recent poor form

WATCH

Several lightly-raced types including Leva Deva and Shegotrhythmtspare could have significant improvement hidden

NOTE

Crystabel was close to winning when falling at Killarney and represents value if staying on her feet

NOTE

The large field of 17 could cause traffic problems for hold-up horses if they get too far back early

6:28 — Rosses Point Caravan Park Handicap Hurdle

2m2f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Bangor Lady to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Moulane West led; the map had Bangor Lady in front.

Bowgate Street won at 5.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 15 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bangor Lady

Prominent · 3

Jr MahonBowgate StreetGold Gatewood

Midfield · 9

Redcliff GlenSacramentalBrave JoseeGrace's LegacyCentaqRoad To The SeaGo AvelBruno From MarsSidiriya

Hold Up · 5

Lakefield FlyerClassy CcKentucky BluebirdBlue Moon BoyMoulane West

Bangor Lady is the only confirmed front-runner and will make the running unchallenged early, setting a sustainable pace that won't break up the field. Bowgate Street, Gold Gatewood and Jr Mahon will track in prominent positions but none are natural pace-pressers. The lack of early speed creates a tactical race where the pace will only quicken from the second-last hurdle. This setup strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce late finishes, as they'll get the perfect scenario of a steady gallop followed by a sprint finish that plays to their strengths.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Bangor Lady sets uncontested fractions and the pace doesn't quicken until late

The patient hold-up horses get perfect conditions to unleash finishing kicks in the final half-mile. Those with tactical speed and stamina reserves will sweep past the early leaders who've done too much work.

Lakefield FlyerMoulane WestCentaqClassy Cc

Prominent Tracker Victory

20% probability

If Bowgate Street or Jr Mahon apply more pressure than expected mid-race

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours those positioned handily who can quicken without losing ground. Hold-up horses may find too much to do if the gallop becomes truly run.

Bowgate StreetJr MahonKentucky BluebirdBlue Moon Boy

Front-Runner Exploitation

10% probability

If Bangor Lady gets completely uncontested fractions and kicks clear approaching the last

Her family connections with trainer Ryan and the lack of pace pressure allows her to dictate completely and steal the race. The field may not react quickly enough to her acceleration.

Bangor LadyGold GatewoodBowgate StreetSidiriya

Chaos And Outsider

5% probability

If multiple horses make jumping errors or there are significant fallers at crucial hurdles

The race becomes a scramble where form goes out the window and an unfancied runner capitalizes on others' misfortune. Late-running outsiders can benefit from cleaner jumps.

Bruno From MarsBrave JoseeGrace's LegacyRoad To The Sea

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bangor Lady could steal this if allowed completely uncontested fractions by the field sleeping in behind

WATCH

Lakefield Flyer returning after 219 days but Hanlon stable excel with fresh horses and he's significantly dropped in weights

NOTE

Bowgate Street was actually first past the post here in 2024 before disqualification and showed good recent form at Kilbeggan

WATCH

Multiple horses showing fading finish patterns could struggle if the pace becomes truly run from the second-last

NOTE

Moulane West attempting to repeat last year's victory in this exact race after a similar lengthy absence

6:58 — Enda McGoldrick, Plant & Agri Hire Maiden Hurdle

2m4f · Good · MDN · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

7:28 — Johnston Farm Equipment Handicap Hurdle

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 19 runners

Lady's Choice to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Road To The Weir led; the map had Lady's Choice in front.

The Eggler won at 7.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

5 of 16 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lady's Choice

Prominent · 4

LadiamButton RockLariatRoad To The Weir

Midfield · 8

Mother ShipThe EgglerIsland McCooSunrise StriderLove Like ThisDoyen WolfCeltic CrossingGolden Order

Hold Up · 6

Tomas O MailleIlbdareJumble LightListentomewillyaFriar HoganDunany Point

Lady's Choice will lead with no other confirmed front runners in this 19-runner field, creating a likely steady gallop without early pressure. Ladiam and Lariat provide the prominent tracker element, while the vast majority are hold-up horses including Tomas O Maille, Ilbdare, Mother Ship and Dunany Point. With Lady's Choice prone to fading and no genuine pace pressure expected, this sets up as a moderate gallop that will turn into a sprint finish. This tactical setup strongly favours the prominent trackers and forward hold-up horses who can position close enough to strike, rather than horses relying on long finishing kicks from the rear.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Steady Pace Benefits Trackers

55% probability

If Lady's Choice maintains an uncontested lead creating a moderate gallop

The lack of pace pressure allows prominent runners to travel comfortably before striking, while pure hold-up horses get strung out when the tempo lifts. Forward-positioned horses with tactical pace can exploit the predictable tempo.

LadiamDunany PointMother ShipIlbdare

Late Collapse Favours Closers

25% probability

If Lady's Choice fades dramatically in the final half-mile after setting weak fractions

The slow pace becomes a stamina test where horses with strong finishing kicks can sweep up from off the pace. Hold-up performers with proven staying power benefit from the crawling early tempo.

Tomas O MailleMother ShipIlbdareButton Rock

Surprise Early Pressure

12% probability

If Lariat or Button Rock force the pace early alongside Lady's Choice

The increased tempo stretches the field and creates a more genuine test of stamina over this extended trip. Horses with proven ability at the distance can capitalize on a more searching gallop.

IlbdareLadiamDunany PointMother Ship

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If Lady's Choice goes very slowly with no pressure from prominent runners

The race becomes a complete lottery where any horse getting a clear run can win in a blanket finish. Long-absent horses returning to form or lightly-raced improvers can shock at big prices.

Love Like ThisListentomewillyaGolden OrderThe Eggler

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lady's Choice may not see out the trip despite leading throughout, as her fade-in-finish pattern suggests stamina limitations over this extended distance

WATCH

Ladiam and Mother Ship both face fitness concerns after long absences, though both have strong connections and course experience

NOTE

Button Rock gets blinkers for the first time with Jack Kennedy riding for Gordon Elliott, suggesting stable confidence despite poor recent form

WATCH

Several hold-up horses including Tomas O Maille and Celtic Crossing face significant fitness questions after extended breaks

NOTE

Multiple reserves Jumble Light, Listentomewillya and Doyen Wolf could gain starts if withdrawals occur, with Listentomewillya the most interesting as a handicap debutant

7:58 — Solar Generation Handicap Hurdle

3m2f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Lead contested: Earl Neigh v Survivors SisterHISTORIC

How it ran

Survivors Sister and Jumping Susie led, as the map showed.

Mr Dibbs won at 9.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

6 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Earl NeighSurvivors Sister

Prominent · 4

Jumping SusiePortarlingtonMr DibbsLe Grand Vert

Midfield · 2

Gerrys WishBarrowline

Hold Up · 4

Jeriko De BauneThe Miracle ManEvans SecretBallyglass Beauty

Earl Neigh and Survivors Sister are both confirmed front runners who will contest the early lead over this stamina-sapping 3m2f trip. Their duel will create an honest gallop from the outset, with Jumping Susie and Le Grand Vert likely to track them prominently. The sustained pace over the extended distance will test stamina reserves severely in the closing stages. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can conserve energy early and produce a finishing kick when the pace-setters weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Artists Profit

55% probability

If Earl Neigh and Survivors Sister engage in their expected front-running battle

The honest early gallop will set up perfectly for closers like The Miracle Man, Gerrods Wish and Jeriko De Baune to pick off the tiring leaders. These hold-up specialists can time their runs to perfection as the front pair fade.

The Miracle ManGerrods WishJeriko De BauneEvans Secret

Prominent Tracker Wins

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners can secure the perfect stalking position behind the leaders

Jumping Susie or Le Grand Vert could benefit from the pace battle ahead while staying close enough to strike when the leaders falter. Their positioning allows them to avoid the early speed battle while maintaining striking distance.

Jumping SusieLe Grand VertPortarlingtonMr Dibbs

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Earl Neigh's step up to 3m2f unlocks improved stamina on handicap debut

His opening mark may prove generous and the extended trip could suit his style better than shorter distances suggest. Survivors Sister lacks recent form but her Limerick win showed she can dominate when conditions suit.

Earl NeighSurvivors SisterThe Miracle ManJumping Susie

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If both front runners fail to engage properly or encounter jumping issues

The race becomes a muddling affair that doesn't play to the hold-up horses' strengths, allowing a midfield runner to steal it. This scenario benefits horses who can adapt tactically rather than those relying on a strong pace.

Ballyglass BeautyPortarlingtonEvans SecretMr Dibbs

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Earl Neigh and Survivors Sister could set unsustainable fractions if they lock horns too early over this stamina test

WATCH

Evans Secret faces a fitness test after 303 days off and his fresh record suggests he needs the run

WATCH

Jeriko De Baune pulled up last time and needs to prove that was just a bad day at the office

NOTE

The Miracle Man's hold-up style perfectly suits the likely pace scenario with his course form a major plus

NOTE

Jumping Susie's headgear changes suggest connections expect improvement from her prominent racing style

8:28 — Lake Isle Of Innisfree INH Flat Race

2m2f · Good · DEFAULT · 15 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 12 May 2026.

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