Archive›Southwell (AW) · 17 September 2026

Southwell (AW)

17 September 2026 · 9 races

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4:20 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery Handicap Stakes

6f · Standard · HCAP · 13 runners

Polly The Sniper to leadFREEHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Wopbopaloomop led; the map had Polly The Sniper in front.

Crowned won at 3.50. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Polly The Sniper

Prominent · 4

BoutblummintimePageant GirlSable IslandWopbopaloomop

Midfield · 4

Stoney WoodCrownedSo TemptingDefiant Dream

Hold Up · 4

Harry WhoSecret RivalSovereign BeachClassyfied

Polly The Sniper is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no rival likely to seriously contest the early lead, she should settle into a controlled, unhurried gallop that dictates throughout on the Fibresand at Southwell. Behind her, Wopbopaloomop, Sable Island, Boutblummintime and Pageant Girl are all genuine prominent racers who will be pressing for the early positions just off the pace. The true hold-up horses — Crowned, Stoney Wood, So Tempting and Defiant Dream — are all shown in midfield on this map because there are simply too many rear-runners for all to get to the back; in reality, several will find themselves racing further forward than they would prefer. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip at Southwell on the all-weather, and with a single, uncontested pace-setter likely to control a modest gallop, prominent racers tracking Polly The Sniper are best positioned to pounce — hold-up horses are likely to find this shape less than ideal.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sniper Leads, Prominent Pounce

54% probability

If Polly The Sniper dictates an uncontested, measured gallop and the prominent chasers secure a handy position throughout.

Polly The Sniper controls the tempo from stall 7 and a controlled pace puts the horses tracking her — particularly Wopbopaloomop and Sable Island — in the ideal position to strike approaching the final furlong; front-runners and prominent racers thrive in this exact setup at Southwell over 6f and the lack of genuine pressure over the early stages means stamina reserves are intact at the finish.

WopbopaloomopSable IslandPolly The SniperPageant Girl

Steady Pace, Sniper Wins

22% probability

If the gallop remains so controlled that Polly The Sniper never gets headed and simply outstays the prominent chasers from the front.

With no rival putting her under early pressure, Polly The Sniper dictates every yard and the prominent horses tracking her cannot find the change of gear required to reel her in; front-runners have a strong record over this course and trip, and an uncontested lead is the ideal platform for that profile to convert.

Polly The SniperWopbopaloomopPageant GirlBoutblummintime

Pace Collapse, Closers Steal

14% probability

If the gallop is faster than expected and the leaders hit a flat spot inside the final two furlongs, opening the door for the trailing group.

Stoney Wood or Crowned, though forced to race closer than ideal, could still produce a late surge if the pace collapses sufficiently to let them pass a weakening front-end; this scenario is tempered by the fact that many of the supposed closers will not be in their natural position and the hold-up profile has a below-par record here.

CrownedStoney WoodHarry WhoSecret Rival

Chaos, Rank Outsider Lands

10% probability

If several prominent horses clash for position early, creating an uneven pace that scrambles the race shape entirely.

A messy early tactical battle could shuffle the pack and elevate a runner like Harry Who or Defiant Dream who might find a clean passage at a crucial point; this is the least likely shape given one confirmed pace-setter and a largely compliant pack behind, but it cannot be fully dismissed in a 13-runner nursery.

Harry WhoDefiant DreamSo TemptingSecret Rival

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Polly The Sniper (stall 7, William Cox) — watch whether she gets a clean break; if she leads unchallenged into the first bend, the prominent racers tracking her are immediately set up to pounce at the furlong pole.

WATCH

Wopbopaloomop and Sable Island — both prominent types who need to secure a handy position early from mid-draw stalls; if Boutblummintime or Pageant Girl push aggressively from the low numbers, it could tighten space and disrupt their run.

WATCH

Classyfied and Sovereign Beach — both hold-up horses tackling the all-weather for the first time; a well-beaten early effort from either would confirm the surface concern and remove them from the race picture quickly.

NOTE

Crowned and Stoney Wood — both true hold-up horses who will race closer than ideal; watch how their jockeys place them in the first two furlongs, as those who adapt early and find cover could still land in the shake-up despite racing out of position.

NOTE

Harry Who (Ryan Sexton, Fahey yard) — only two runs and very lightly exposed; watch the market in the hour before the race for any significant move that might indicate the yard has seen a step forward at home.

4:50 — Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes

6f · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Preferred led, as the map showed.

Insuspense won at 8.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Staniel CayBlackjackSarafina MshairiPreferred

Prominent · 4

ZarincaWillolarupiWoolridgeBill Plumb

Midfield · 2

Von KrolockCool Doc Boy

Hold Up · 4

Speeding BulletJesse LucInsuspenseSprinting Speed

Staniel Cay, Blackjack, Sarafina Mshairi, and Preferred make up a quartet of confirmed front-runners, and with all four likely to press for the early lead from the off, a strong, unrelenting gallop is virtually certain over this six-furlong Polytrack trip. Staniel Cay breaks from stall one and Blackjack from stall eight, while Sarafina Mshairi (13) and Preferred (14) will be angling for position from wider, meaning the pace battle itself could burn off several of these types before the turn into the straight. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip at Southwell, but when four clash simultaneously the race tends to set itself up for those racing just off the pace or through the middle of the field, as the leaders cook each other. This shape firmly favours prominent or midfield runners with the tactical nous to track a hot pace and quicken through it — horses like Zarinca and Von Krolock, who can sit close enough to be dangerous without being dragged into the speed battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Collapse, Midfield Wins

42% probability

If the four front-runners burn each other out and the race is run in a fast, unrelenting gallop that leaves the leaders spent.

Zarinca and Von Krolock, both tracking close to a scorching pace without leading it, are ideally placed to pick up the pieces as the front-runners fade in the final furlong; prominent and midfield types have solid records here and this scenario plays directly to their strengths.

ZarincaVon KrolockWoolridgeInsuspense

One Pace-Setter Escapes

28% probability

If one of the front-runners — most likely Staniel Cay from stall one — manages to slip clear at a sustainable tempo while the others battle each other.

Staniel Cay has the draw advantage from the inside rail and if the others neutralise each other in the speed fight, a controlling leader can exploit the chaos behind; front-runners do well here when they get a clear path and are not under early pressure.

Staniel CayPreferredZarincaBill Plumb

Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late

18% probability

If the pace is so extreme that it completely opens the race up for deep closers to mow through beaten rivals in the final stages.

Jesse Luc and Insuspense would be the logical beneficiaries, having the habit of settling well off the pace, but hold-up horses tend to find this trip too sharp at Southwell even with a strong gallop, limiting the ceiling for this shape.

InsuspenseJesse LucSpeeding BulletSprinting Speed

Tactical Race, Prominent Wins

12% probability

If the pace unexpectedly steadies — perhaps through early jostling — and resolves into a more controlled contest that rewards those travelling sweetly in the first three.

Bill Plumb and Woolridge are capable of racing prominently at a measured gallop and finishing off, but this scenario requires the four front-runners to check each other sooner than expected, which is unlikely given their natural eagerness.

Bill PlumbWoolridgeZarincaVon Krolock

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pace implosion risk — Staniel Cay, Blackjack, Sarafina Mshairi and Preferred are all likely to push hard for the early lead; watch whether any of them crack entering the final two furlongs, as this is the critical hinge point for the whole race.

WATCH

Preferred's wide draw in stall fourteen could cost him significant ground and energy early as he angles across to find the front; if he is unable to secure a forward position naturally, he may be racing out of his comfort zone throughout.

WATCH

Willolarupi has no all-weather form and the switch from turf to Polytrack is unproven; monitor his behaviour in the preliminaries and his early position in running, as horses unexpectedly unsuited to the surface can pull wide or race erratically.

NOTE

Von Krolock's four wins here all came from midfield with a strong pace in front — keep an eye on how smoothly he travels through the first three furlongs, as a horse who meets any traffic trouble from stall four in a large field could find himself with too much ground to make up.

NOTE

Cool Doc Boy has been off the track for 107 days; watch for any sign of ring-rustiness in the early stages, as a midfield runner returning from that length of absence in a 14-runner sprint can easily get shuffled back and out of contention before the race begins in earnest.

5:25 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

2m½f · Standard · HCAP · 4 runners

Dojin likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Level Look led; the map had Dojin in front.

Level Look won at 1.40 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Dojin

Prominent · 1

Charging Thunder

Midfield · 1

Level Look

Hold Up · 1

New York Minute

Dojin is the clear pace-setter here and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, he will stride into a comfortable rhythm from the outset over this extended two-and-a-half-mile trip, dictating terms on a Standard Polytrack surface that demands sound stamina. Charging Thunder will look to sit prominently just off the leader, while New York Minute and Level Look — despite both being naturally prominent types — are likely to find themselves racing further back than ideal given Dojin's willingness to go on. The field holds more prominent types than can all secure their natural position: Dojin is the one certainty to lead, with Charging Thunder best placed to sit just off him, leaving Level Look and New York Minute to race out of their preferred roles. Prominent racers have a strong record over this trip at Southwell on this surface, and with Dojin able to control the pace without pressure, horses that can travel close to the leader and sustain their effort through the final stages are the primary beneficiaries of this shape.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dojin Controls, Prominent Wins

70% probability

If Dojin sets a measured, uncontested pace and a close-tracking rival sustains their effort to the line.

Dojin controls the tempo throughout and Charging Thunder, sitting just off the lead, is ideally positioned to strike as the race develops in the straight; prominent runners have delivered well over this trip and going at Southwell and this shape plays directly to that profile.

DojinCharging ThunderLevel LookNew York Minute

Dojin Holds On Late

14% probability

If Dojin's control of the pace is so complete that his rivals cannot mount a serious challenge and he simply outstays them.

Setting a relaxed gallop through the early and middle stages, Dojin has the tactical nous to conserve energy and find enough late to repel any challenger; his recent course-and-distance form on Standard ground gives him solid claims if he can regulate the race entirely on his own terms.

DojinCharging ThunderLevel LookNew York Minute

Hold-Up Horse Pounces

10% probability

If Dojin goes too freely and the pace unravels in the final quarter mile, leaving room for New York Minute to close from behind.

New York Minute has a sound record on this surface and, with a big weight of form on Standard going over staying trips, could pick up the pieces if the leaders empty; hold-up runners here do manage to place at a solid rate even if outright wins are harder to come by, so this scenario is possible without being the most likely.

New York MinuteLevel LookCharging ThunderDojin

Pace Collapse, Field Bunches

6% probability

If Dojin sets an unusually slow pace that causes the field to bunch and produces a messy finish with no clear positional advantage.

A dawdle turns the race into a sprint-finish test over the final two furlongs, which would scramble the usual positional hierarchy and could bring any runner into contention; given the trip and small field, this shape is unlikely but cannot be entirely ruled out if Dojin is ridden conservatively early.

Level LookNew York MinuteCharging ThunderDojin

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

WATCH

Dojin (draw 1) breaks cleanly — if he is bustled along early and cannot establish his rhythm, the entire pace scenario shifts and the other runners' positional plans unravel.

WATCH

New York Minute's 74-day absence could mean it needs the run; watch how Lewis Edmunds places it in the early stages over this extended trip as a guide to whether it is fully wound up.

NOTE

Level Look is likely to be racing out of its most effective position for the bulk of the race — if Callum Hutchinson is seen pushing forward aggressively in the first half-mile, that would signal a change in tactics worth noting.

KEY

With only four runners, any incident in the early stages — a stumble, a slow break — could dramatically alter the race shape, particularly for Charging Thunder who needs to hold prominent ground to be effective.

6:00 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB Race)

7f · Standard · NOV · 11 runners

Lead contested: Nouva Stella v BullriderHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Solar Major and God of Titans led; the map had Nouva Stella and Bullrider in front.

Solar Major won at 21.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Nouva StellaBullrider

Prominent · 1

Cool King

Midfield · 6

Angel of HeavenGod of TitansMad JackSweet DistractionGalactic AffairSolar Major

Hold Up · 2

Five Star GeorgeStorm Force Ten

Bullrider and Nouva Stella are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead from the off, creating a genuinely contested pace rather than a lone, unchallenged gallop. Nouva Stella drew stall one and has shown a tendency to fade once headed, so Bullrider — drawn stall five and holding the stronger form credentials — looks the likelier of the two to control the race from the front through the middle stages. The honest, competitive gallop this dual-pace scenario generates on a Standard Polytrack over seven furlongs tends to suit horses able to race prominently or through the middle of the pack, since the early burn rewards those who travel within themselves and finish it off rather than those waiting at the back; hold-up horses have a poor record at this course and trip and are not favoured by this shape. Prominent and midfield runners who can slot in behind the contested pace and make their move from two furlongs out are the profiles to follow, with Bullrider — if he overcomes Nouva Stella for the lead — also capable of winning if the pace is sufficiently honest to sustain his momentum to the line.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Bullrider controls and wins

55% probability

If Bullrider asserts over Nouva Stella early and settles into a rhythm at the head of the field without burning out.

Bullrider has twice finished placed at this course and trip on Standard going, and with Nouva Stella likely to fade once pressed, he should find himself in front and unchallenged from halfway, making it a true test of staying power that his form here suggests he handles well.

BullriderCool KingStorm Force TenAngel of Heaven

Prominent racer pounces late

24% probability

If the dual lead battle between Bullrider and Nouva Stella creates enough early pace to set up a race for a prominent horse to pick off the tiring front-runners.

Cool King has placed twice at seven furlongs on Good ground and has a fading tendency that is less of a concern when there is genuine pace to chase; with De Sousa riding and a prominent style that suits this course, he is well placed to swoop if the front two burn each other out.

Cool KingStorm Force TenBullriderAngel of Heaven

Midfield horse emerges

14% probability

If the pace proves genuinely hot and the leaders and prominent racers run each other ragged, leaving room for a midfield horse to pick up the pieces.

Angel of Heaven and Sweet Distraction both sit through the middle of the field and have reasonable form at the trip, and on a flat Polytrack over seven furlongs midfield runners do hold some place prospects even if they are unlikely winners in this scenario.

Angel of HeavenSweet DistractionCool KingStorm Force Ten

Debutant springs surprise

7% probability

If one of the unraced horses — Galactic Affair or Solar Major — arrives with a significant home reputation and outruns market expectations on debut.

Debutants on an honest-paced gallop can occasionally outclass a modest novice field if they are well-schooled and tactically placed, but the complete unknown of their ability and running style makes this a low-probability outcome.

Galactic AffairSolar MajorBullriderCool King

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Nouva Stella vs Bullrider for the early lead — if Nouva Stella refuses to settle behind Bullrider and forces a prolonged head-to-head duel through the first three furlongs, both front-runners risk weakening dramatically from the two-furlong pole, completely opening up the race for those held up behind.

WATCH

Cool King's finishing tendency — De Sousa will need to time his run precisely; if Cool King gets to the leaders too soon given his history of fading, he risks being caught late by any horse with a stronger finish.

WATCH

Galactic Affair and Solar Major are both debutants with unknown profiles; if either is notably well-backed on course in the market beforehand, that is significant intelligence worth heeding before the off.

NOTE

Draw is minimal in its influence over this trip at Southwell, but Nouva Stella in stall one may use the inside rail to her advantage in the early stages — watch whether she breaks fast and pins Bullrider wide off the bend.

NOTE

Angel of Heaven has not run for sixty-one days; Fanshawe horses can reappear fresh but the absence of a recent run on any surface means fitness is a minor question mark if the pace proves gruelling from the front.

6:30 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Div II) (GBB Race)

7f · Standard · NOV · 10 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Don't Stop Movin led, as the map showed.

Don't Stop Movin won at 3.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Don't Stop MovinPeaberryTiggywinkle

Prominent · 1

Dontworryaboutme

Midfield · 3

Sayidah IffraajSon Of LightLeo Cee

Hold Up · 3

Otis BayThreeoclockflyerGordons Girl

Don't Stop Movin, Peaberry, and Tiggywinkle all want to be prominent or lead, ensuring this race ignites from the off on Southwell's Fibresand over seven furlongs. The three will contest the early position hard through the first two furlongs, likely setting a strong, unrelenting gallop that stretches the field and tests stamina long before the home straight. Peaberry brings the most convincing all-weather credentials of the pace-setters, while Don't Stop Movin is the Strand Scorecard's top pick despite carrying a concern over this surface — if that surface worry materialises, the leadership could shift. Prominent racers and midfield chasers have the strongest records over this course and trip, meaning horses who travel just off the brutal early fractions, rather than fighting to set them or closing from out of the race, are best positioned to pounce when the leaders inevitably tighten in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Burn, Chasers Strike

42% probability

If the three front-runners push each other along at a fierce pace, leaving one clear leader to be swallowed up inside the final two furlongs.

The sustained gallop set by Don't Stop Movin, Peaberry, and Tiggywinkle will crack at least two of them, with the most economical prominent or midfield traveller swooping to capitalise; Dontworryaboutme, tracking from a handy draw, is the profile that benefits most from this shape.

DontworryaboutmePeaberrySayidah IffraajLeo Cee

Front-Runner Dominates Wire

28% probability

If Don't Stop Movin or Peaberry quickly establishes clear terms and the rivals fail to force a truly ruinous pace duel.

One leader breaks cleanly and dictates a controlled but still honest fractions, preserving enough to repel challengers; prominent runners have a strong record over this trip here, so a pace-setter who leads at a measured clip rather than a suicidal one is a genuine winning scenario.

Don't Stop MovinPeaberryDontworryaboutmeSon Of Light

Debutants Exploit Carnage

20% probability

If the pace war between the known runners burns every established horse out and a lightly-raced newcomer swoops late from the middle of the field.

Sayidah Iffraaj, Leo Cee, and Son Of Light arrive unexposed and, if able to slot into midfield rather than being sucked into the fray, could find every rival weakening at the two-furlong pole; hold-up horses have a below-par record here, so any closer who can race prominently from their unknown starting position raises their chance meaningfully.

Sayidah IffraajSon Of LightLeo CeeGordons Girl

Hold-Up Closers Pounce

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and the entire field spreads out, giving deep closers an unusually clear passage from the rear.

Threeoclockflyer and Gordons Girl are pure hold-up types but their profile is structurally disadvantaged at this course and trip, meaning this scenario requires several things to go wrong simultaneously for the pace-setters; it is the least likely shape and only serious if traffic problems or interference bundles the race up in the straight.

Gordons GirlThreeoclockflyerOtis BaySayidah Iffraaj

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Don't Stop Movin, Peaberry, and Tiggywinkle will all push for the lead in the opening furlong — watch for crowding and a collision of intentions that could unsettle any of them and throw the race wide open.

WATCH

Don't Stop Movin is unproven on all-weather ground and if he fails to handle Southwell's Fibresand surface he could drop away suddenly and leave a gap in the pace, disrupting the race shape entirely.

WATCH

Tiggywinkle has a recorded fade in the finish and yet is expected to set or press the pace; she is a horse to monitor around the four-furlong pole where she may stop quickly and become a danger to runners behind her.

NOTE

The three debutantes — Sayidah Iffraaj, Leo Cee, and Son Of Light — are complete unknowns and one booking in particular, Silvestre De Sousa on Son Of Light, suggests connections have a positive opinion; watch the market move on any of the three as a guide to how informed money is reading their chances.

NOTE

Otis Bay's tendency to fade in the final stages means punters looking for each-way value should be cautious; David Probert may push forward earlier than usual to try to get a clear run, which could affect traffic for mid-division rivals.

7:00 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Selling Handicap Stakes

1m · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Cool Molly likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Cool Molly led, as the map showed.

Roi de Coeur won at 2.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Cool Molly

Prominent · 1

Roi de Coeur

Midfield · 3

IndefensibleSandy CraicRogue Supremacy

Hold Up · 1

Justice Court

Cool Molly draws stall one and is the only confirmed front-runner in the field, giving David Probert a free lead into the first bend on the Southwell Polytrack. The pace should be honest but controlled — with no rival likely to press her hard from the outset, she can dictate a rhythm that suits her own stamina rather than burning petrol unnecessarily. Prominent racers have a strong record over this trip here, and Cool Molly's ability to secure that position without a fight puts her profile squarely in the sweet spot. This race shape strongly favours a horse racing prominently in a genuine lead or stalking role, and hold-up types face an uphill task given how poorly they fare over this course and trip. Several runners — Indefensible, Sandy Craic, and Rogue Supremacy — are natural front-runners or prominent types who cannot all get their preferred position in this small field, meaning at least two will be racing further back than they would like, compromising their effectiveness.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Cool Molly Controls Throughout

65% probability

If Cool Molly gets away cleanly from stall one and settles into an uncontested lead at a sustainable gallop.

She dictates every yard of the race, controlling the tempo from the front and kicking again inside the final furlong before rivals can get organised; prominent horses who have tracked her lack the acceleration to peg her back.

Cool MollyRoi de CoeurIndefensibleJustice Court

Stalker Reels Her In

17% probability

If a rival tracks Cool Molly closely and times a challenge to arrive as she begins to flatten out.

Roi de Coeur, who has placed twice at this course and trip and races prominently, is best placed to sit just off the leader's quarters and collar her in the closing stages; Indefensible, who has won twice recently, could also benefit if he secures a similar position despite the crowded prominent group.

Roi de CoeurIndefensibleCool MollySandy Craic

Midfield Horse Finishes Through

12% probability

If the pace set by Cool Molly is genuinely brisk and the front group ties each other up late.

Justice Court, stepping back up to a mile on his best surface, would be the primary beneficiary, with his hold-up style giving him fresh legs in the closing stages; however, hold-up runners have a poor record over this trip here, which limits confidence in this shape genuinely delivering.

Justice CourtRogue SupremacySandy CraicRoi de Coeur

Pace Collapse and Chaos

6% probability

If multiple prominent types push forward early, creating a scrappy pace that unravels the whole field.

The disrupted rhythm would cause attrition through the field, potentially bringing a fresh-legged hold-up horse or a redistributed type into play late; this is a low-probability shape given Cool Molly's clean draw and lack of a credible challenger for the lead.

Justice CourtSandy CraicRogue SupremacyIndefensible

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cool Molly gets the unchallenged lead from stall one — if she bowls along at her own pace for the full mile on standard ground, rivals will find it very hard to close her down in the straight.

WATCH

Roi de Coeur has course-and-trip form and stall two puts him directly behind the leader; watch whether De Sousa tracks Cool Molly or attempts to go with her, as the gap between a tracking and a chasing position could be decisive late.

WATCH

Indefensible, Sandy Craic, and Rogue Supremacy all want prominent ground — watch the first two furlongs to see which, if any, succeeds in settling near the pace, as the one who does will have a significant positional advantage over the others.

NOTE

Justice Court ran just two days ago and also wore a hood in his last win — monitor pre-race behaviour and early pace, as a fast early gallop is almost a prerequisite for his hold-up style to succeed over this trip at Southwell.

7:30 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

1m · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners

Aspull likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Aspull led, as the map showed.

Gladiadora won at 7.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

7 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Aspull

Prominent · 5

Dolo's StarGladiadoraNo Knee NeverCeinture d'OrionNordic Norm

Midfield · 4

Ernie's ValentineRoyal County GloryAge of BaroqueCaptain Cess

Hold Up · 4

PalmarianDream IllusionSoames ForsyteSailor's Return

Aspull is the one confirmed front-runner and, with minimal genuine pressure expected from the others, should be able to stride into an uncontested lead and set a sustainable, even gallop around Southwell's flat mile. Nordic Norm and Dolo's Star will push forward to race prominently just off the pace, with Gladiadora and No Knee Never also keen to occupy an early position, meaning the prominent berths will be competitive but the overall tempo should remain controlled rather than frenetic. This shape sets up well for horses racing close to the pace, as prominent and midfield runners have a strong record over this trip here, while horses that come from well off the pace consistently underperform expectations at this course and distance. The field holds more hold-up and prominent types than can all secure their preferred positions — Captain Cess and Age of Baroque are genuine hold-up horses who are likely to find themselves racing closer to the pace than they would wish, while Royal County Glory is a natural prominent type who may be crowded back into midfield, meaning those three are likely to race somewhat out of their natural roles. The dominant scenario is one where an on-pace horse dictates from the front or tracks the leader, with the race profile strongly favouring prominent and midfield stalkers over genuine closers.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Aspull Controls, Stalkers Pounce

56% probability

If Aspull sets a comfortable, uncontested pace and the race unfolds at an even tempo that rewards horses tracking the leader.

Aspull dictates from the front, setting a rhythm that suits horses just off the pace, and as the race develops through the final two furlongs the prominent stalkers move through to challenge. Nordic Norm, Dolo's Star and Gladiadora are best placed to take advantage, all racing in positions that have a strong record here.

Dolo's StarNordic NormGladiadoraAspull

Prominent War, Midfield Gallopers

24% probability

If the prominent horses jostle for position early and create enough pace to bring the midfield runners into play in the closing stages.

A contested early pace between Aspull, Nordic Norm, Dolo's Star and No Knee Never stretches the field and opens ground for the midfield runners to pick up momentum turning for home. Ernie's Valentine has the course and distance profile to capitalise on this scenario, and Sailor's Return, stepping back to a trip where he won last time on this surface, could also land late.

Ernie's ValentineSailor's ReturnRoyal County GloryDream Illusion

Hold-Up Horses Land Late

12% probability

If the pace collapses in the final furlong and creates a sprint finish that allows the closers to sweep through.

Dream Illusion and Soames Forsyte would need the race to set up perfectly for a late run, which this course and trip does not typically deliver for genuine hold-up horses. Captain Cess has the class in his form figures — finishing second in four of his last five — and would be best placed of the hold-up brigade, though racing closer than ideal.

Captain CessDream IllusionSoames ForsytePalmarian

Front-Runner Outstays All

8% probability

If the pace is so controlled that Aspull simply idles along and is never seriously challenged before quickening clear in the final furlong.

Aspull has shown ability over this course and distance on similar going and, if the field is content to track without pressing, could steal enough of a break to hold on. However, this outcome depends heavily on the prominent horses failing to respond, which seems unlikely given the competitive nature of the field.

AspullNordic NormGladiadoraDolo's Star

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Captain Cess and Royal County Glory — both are highlighted on the Strand Scorecard yet both are likely to race out of their natural positions given the field's composition, so monitor how quickly they find their rhythm in the opening furlong.

WATCH

No Knee Never — flags as a horse who fades in the finish and has recent form over ten furlongs on softer ground, so if he goes forward keenly and ties up late he could drag several rivals into the struggle.

WATCH

Ceinture d'Orion — has no artificial surface form and steps down from ten furlongs; watch for any market moves that suggest connections are confident, or early drifting that confirms the going concern is real.

NOTE

Aspull from draw 1 — as the lone confirmed front-runner he will be in the spotlight from the moment the stalls open; any show of reluctance or interference at the break would fundamentally alter the race shape.

NOTE

Sailor's Return — won at this course and distance last time on this surface and is the most obvious beneficiary if the hold-up scenario somehow materialises, making him a key horse to track through the early stages.

8:00 — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

5f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Havin A Flyer led, as the map showed.

One For Harvey won at 4.33 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Havin A FlyerMariselleEl GhuwahZonnebloem

Prominent · 4

Phoenix BeachHvarBeach ParteeMimime

Midfield · 1

Kohana Girl

Hold Up · 3

Tommie's AngelOne For HarveyMademoiselle Belle

Havin A Flyer, Mariselle, El Ghuwah, and Zonnebloem all want to be on or near the lead, guaranteeing a hot early gallop over this sharp five furlongs at Southwell. Silvestre De Sousa aboard Havin A Flyer gives that runner the clearest right to dominate the pace, and with three rivals pushing for the same position from the off, the tempo will be genuinely strong throughout. Front-runners carry a solid record over this trip and going at Southwell, so the pace angle itself is not the problem — the problem is how much that early war costs the leaders in the final furlong. This race shape most favours prominent racers who can sit just off the hot pace and pick off a tiring leader, though a truly dominant front-runner who handles the early shove better than rivals can still hold on.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace War, Prominent Wins

42% probability

If the four pace horses burn each other out and a prominent racer sits second or third throughout before asserting late

The frantic early duel between Havin A Flyer, Mariselle, El Ghuwah and Zonnebloem drains their reserves, leaving the final furlong open to a horse who travelled efficiently just off them; prominent runners have a solid record at Southwell over five furlongs and the pace here sets that profile up perfectly.

Beach ParteeMimimeHvarPhoenix Beach

Havin A Flyer Leads Throughout

28% probability

If Havin A Flyer asserts early authority, settles the pace to a workable gallop, and finds the others too busy scrapping to pressurise

De Sousa's experience allows Havin A Flyer to dictate at a pace that suits rather than destroys, and the horse's placed record over this course and trip — including a win on this surface — gives it every chance to hold on; the Strand Scorecard rates it top for good reason.

Havin A FlyerZonnebloemEl GhuwahMariselle

Closers Capitalise On Carnage

18% probability

If the pace is so extreme that even prominent racers are compromised and a hold-up horse swoops late

A truly savage early tempo could leave enough of a late gap for a hold-up runner to pick up the pieces entering the final furlong, though hold-up horses have a poor record at Southwell over five furlongs and this scenario relies on conditions being unusually severe even by the standards of this race.

One For HarveyMademoiselle BelleTommie's AngelBeach Partee

Pace Settles, Midfield Strikes

12% probability

If the early speed fractions moderate as the multiple pacemakers check each other and midfield runners find room to travel smoothly

Rather than accelerating into a war, the four pace horses regulate into a sustainable gallop that paradoxically allows midfielders to sit comfortably and challenge turning for home; midfield runners have outperformed their market expectation here, and a horse like Mimime, with experience at this course and trip, could benefit.

MimimePhoenix BeachBeach ParteeHvar

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Havin A Flyer in the opening furlong — if De Sousa controls the pace rather than being dragged into a war, the leader's chance improves significantly, but if Mariselle or El Ghuwah force a genuine sprint, all pacemakers are vulnerable.

WATCH

Beach Partee is the principal danger and a first run on all-weather is the key unknown — if the horse handles the Tapeta surface, its consistent placed record and prominent style make it dangerous in the closing stages.

WATCH

Zonnebloem and El Ghuwah both break from wide draws (11 and 10) in a race where four horses want the lead — watch which of the four secures a clear lead position early, as those who fail to get across may surrender their chance before the race truly begins.

NOTE

Kohana Girl (457-day absence, unknown going) is a wild card — watch the market and early reports, as any significant support would suggest stable confidence despite the lengthy layoff.

NOTE

Mimime's trainer has had notable recent success and Luke Morris knows this horse well — if Mimime travels prominently within the first two furlongs without being hassled, it could be closer than its rating suggests.

8:30 — Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Riders Who Have Ridden 3 Winners Or Fewer At Start Of Season)

1m3f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Cougar v Cavalry CallHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

The Pug and Wrist Art led; the map had Cougar and Cavalry Call in front.

Golspie won at 2.88 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

CougarCavalry Call

Prominent · 3

Wrist ArtPalazzo PersicoThe Pug

Midfield · 1

Power of Prayer

Hold Up · 3

GolspieGlitter CodeSpec of Light

Cougar and Cavalry Call are the two confirmed front-runners here, and with both likely to want the early lead, there will be a genuine contest for the front from the off, producing an honest, pressured gallop over this mile-and-three-furlong trip on a Standard Polytrack surface. Cougar carries an stamina concern — he has a tendency to fade in the finish — and with Cavalry Call showing a string of disappointing efforts in similar company, neither pace-setter inspires confidence about sustaining their effort into the closing stages. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can realistically secure their natural positions, and of those, Palazzo Persico and Wrist Art are best placed to lock in a forward berth behind the duelling leaders. This contested pace scenario is tailor-made for midfield runners to travel comfortably and deliver a well-timed challenge, and that profile — exemplified by Power of Prayer — has a strong record over this trip at Southwell, making midfield-to-prominent types the clear tactical beneficiaries of this race shape.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Midfielders pounce from pace

55% probability

If Cougar and Cavalry Call press each other hard early, burning off their limited reserves before the home turn.

The honest gallop drains the leaders, and horses travelling smoothly in the middle of the pack — Power of Prayer, Glitter Code — arrive with momentum in the final two furlongs on a surface that rewards this style consistently.

Power of PrayerGlitter CodePalazzo PersicoGolspie

Prominent racer pounces

22% probability

If one of the prominent types slots in behind the leaders and the pace is honest but not truly gruelling.

Palazzo Persico or Wrist Art, both comfortable racing up with the pace over this kind of trip, avoid the early battle while benefiting from a strong tempo that softens up any hold-up challenger.

Palazzo PersicoWrist ArtPower of PrayerThe Pug

Closers swept up late

14% probability

If the pace collapses or the leaders are allowed to bowl along unchallenged at a moderate tempo, leaving hold-up runners with too much ground to make up.

Golspie and Spec of Light, genuine hold-up types, need the race to set up perfectly from off the pace, and a slow early gallop would stifle their finishing runs entirely.

GolspieSpec of LightGlitter CodePower of Prayer

Front runner survives

9% probability

If one of the two early leaders — most likely Cavalry Call — secures a soft lead uncontested while Cougar fades or misses the break.

A leader gifted an uncontested advantage over this trip can steal a march on midfield types who may be slow to recognise the danger, though Cougar's stamina question and Cavalry Call's poor recent form make this the least likely outcome.

Cavalry CallCougarPalazzo PersicoWrist Art

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Cougar and Cavalry Call are likely to press each other hard from the gate — if neither backs off early, both could capitulate before the straight, gifting the race to whatever is travelling best in midfield.

WATCH

Power of Prayer has been off for 88 days and is likely to race further forward than his natural style dictates given the crowded pace scenario — monitor how he settles in the early stages as his chance depends on it.

WATCH

Palazzo Persico has two wins on Good ground but limited form on this Polytrack surface — watch whether he handles the switch in footing, as his prominent style works best when he can quicken on surfaces he handles.

NOTE

Wrist Art's trainer James Owen has had a high-volume, productive recent spell — yard form behind a horse at a price is always worth noting in a competitive amateur handicap like this one.

NOTE

Spec of Light returns from a 65-day break with no recent all-weather form and a yard showing no activity — if he strips fit he could be interesting late, but the fitness risk is genuine and worth monitoring in running.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 17 September 2026.

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