Archive›Southwell (AW) · 22 September 2026

Southwell (AW)

22 September 2026 · 9 races

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4:20 — Weekend Winners On At The Races Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m · Standard · CLS3 · 11 runners

My Boy likeliest to leadFREEHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

My Boy led, as the map showed.

Ayuq won at 7.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

My Boy

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

YosharkWilcox BridgeRogue InfernoFormby GeorgeYellow Vision

Hold Up · 5

AyuqAnahonaFlight TrackerLady RanyaNorthern Exposure

My Boy has raced prominently in its sole run and will be ridden positively by Oisin Murphy; it is the only horse the map can confidently place in the lead group, with roughly a 12% measured chance of taking it. If My Boy gets the lead, the pace will be uncontested and steady, and the field will settle into a long procession. This field contains more pace potential than the map shows — Yellow Vision is a genuine hold-up type forced to midfield because the race lacks rear-guard depth — but with only one clear front-runner and no obvious challenger to match it, the race should fall to a horse that gets a clean passage and races prominently in the closing stages. Prominent racers have a strong record over this trip and going; hold-up horses on all-weather have underperformed. The likely winner will come from the middle order or just behind it, able to pick up the pieces without needing to lead.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horse finds running

38% probability

If My Boy is unoppposed and sets steady pace, closers arriving late find the gaps.

A hold-up horse that travels sweetly through the middle stages will pick up the tiring field in the final furlong; the uncontested pace benefits a late raid over the front-runner's dying kick. Flight Tracker and Yellow Vision have run on similar ground and have the profile to arrive late.

Flight TrackerYellow VisionAnahonaAyuq

Prominent racer stalks and strikes

35% probability

If My Boy leads but a capable stalker travels well behind it and kicks home on the turn.

A prominent racer running in the firing line but not in front can control the race with no other genuine pace pressure, and will have too much class for the hold-up horses in the final half-furlong. Prominent racers win well above par here.

My BoyAnahonaFlight TrackerYellow Vision

My Boy pressed and falters

18% probability

If a lightly raced yard or jockey combination takes up the challenge and My Boy cannot sustain the lead.

An early press forces My Boy to go harder than its sole run suggests it can, and a fresher, unraced rival finds extra when it matters most. This field contains several newcomers whose quality is untested but whose trainers and jockeys favour a forward approach.

Formby GeorgeRogue InfernoYosharkWilcox Bridge

Chaos in midfield

9% probability

If multiple horses race promisingly through the middle without clear framing, and a rank outsider or well-drawn opportunist profits.

The field lacks cohesion in the lead group, allowing a horse with a poor form record or late draw to sneak through by accident rather than design. This is the residual scenario for unlikely outcomes.

AyuqNorthern ExposureAnahonaLady Ranya

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

My Boy may not get uncontested pace — if Ayuq or Anahona race positively early, the steady scenario collapses and a chaos outcome becomes more likely.

WATCH

Flight Tracker and Yellow Vision must both find gaps late; if either is caught in traffic on the Polytrack and cannot advance, their hold-up profile will not deliver.

NOTE

Formby George drawn widest and unraced — if it breaks well and Watson rides it competitively early, it could press My Boy and force a tactical collapse before the race settles.

WATCH

Lady Ranya's fading debut is a pattern risk; if it repeats here, any early gallop effort will drain it before the finish, ruling out a late-arrival scenario.

NOTE

Lightly raced runners (Rogue Inferno, Yoshark, Wilcox Bridge) have no evidence of handling all-weather; if one is surprisingly keen and takes up the lead, the odds shift sharply against the front-runner dominating.

4:55 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div I)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Firefall v Clouds HillHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Clouds Hill led, as the map showed.

Shipbourne won at 7.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

FirefallClouds Hill

Prominent · 3

King of FuryKalokaloShipbourne

Midfield · 1

Londoner

Hold Up · 5

Talis EvolverePolitelyCarronDarn Hot GallopIlly's Roo

Firefall is a confirmed front-runner with a single recent outing where it led; Clouds Hill has led in five of its last six and raced prominently last time, making it the most reliable pace-setter in this field. Both are likely to contest the early lead, creating a contested tempo over the first half-mile. If Firefall secures the advantage it will set a brisk pace; if Clouds Hill gets there instead, the race will likely be controlled. However, prominent racers and midfield runners have historically outperformed front-runners at this trip and going, winning at rates above market expectation. The field will suit a horse that can race handily without needing the lead—one that can pick up the pieces in the final furlong when the early pressure fades. Stalkers and poised midfield runners therefore hold the structural advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent tracker picks up

38% probability

If Clouds Hill or King of Fury secure a contested lead, fading early pace opens a gap for a horse racing just off the speed.

Prominent racers have won at significantly better rates than front-runners over this exact trip and going; the field contains multiple holdups who will be closing hard from the rear, and a stalker can time its run to pick them off at the critical moment.

KalokaloShipbourneLondonerCarron

Firefall leads wire-to-wire

28% probability

If Firefall breaks well from stall 4 and holds the field under Oisin Orr, dictating an uncontested tempo from flag to finish.

Firefall's single recent run was a win in front, and the handicapper has placed it only 4 lb above the bottom of the weights; if allowed to dominate early it can prove hard to catch on the all-weather despite a tendency to fade in final furlongs.

FirefallKing of FuryKalokaloClouds Hill

Closing hold-up wins late

20% probability

If a horse settled in rear—Talis Evolvere, Carron, or Politely—can find a clear run in the closing stages when pace-setters tire.

Hold-up horses have shown they can compete effectively at this trip despite a poor overall record here; a race run at a genuine clip by the two front-runners will exhaust early runners and hand advantage to a fresh horse arriving from deep.

PolitelyCarronDarn Hot GallopLondoner

Shipbourne middle runner wins

14% probability

If Shipbourne, a winner on good ground at 7f and 6f, settles in midfield and angles through when the contested early pace splinters.

Shipbourne has won three times over shorter trips but carries headgear and a note of fading in the finish; it must press forward from stall 9 and time a challenge to the far side, a scenario that carries execution risk on the all-weather.

ShipbourneLondonerKalokaloKing of Fury

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Firefall can gain an uncontested lead if Clouds Hill is outpaced early; a clear advantage on the front end with 32% measured chance of getting there makes it dangerous despite the structural bias against front-runners.

WATCH

Shipbourne's tendency to fade in finish and requirement to press forward from stall 9 reduces its chance of holding a late surge; if it cannot dictate from the front it becomes a target.

WATCH

Politely's 95-day absence is material; if the yard has not sharpened it adequately in work, a late run from hold-up may not materialize even if the pace setup invites one.

NOTE

Clouds Hill and King of Fury between them set the tempo; if both press forward early and burn themselves out, the race becomes a three-way pickup between Kalokalo, Carron, and Londoner.

NOTE

The all-weather surface at Southwell typically favours horses that relax early; early pressure from Firefall and Clouds Hill may create excessive early burnout, handing the race to a horse that can track and pounce late.

5:30 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap Stakes (Div II)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Lead contested: Moving Shadow v Home HeroHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Vincent Rocks led; the map had Moving Shadow and Home Hero in front.

Hot And Cold won at 3.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Moving ShadowHome Hero

Prominent · 4

Vincent RocksDate LineHot And ColdWinston's Warrior

Midfield · 2

Shimmy JimmyAssiri Heights

Hold Up · 3

Storm PointOn The RiverDuke's Command

Moving Shadow and Home Hero are the confirmed front-runners, both leading in five of their last six and three of their last three runs respectively, and both will be ridden positively from the gate. Vincent Rocks, Date Line and Hot And Cold are likely to race prominently in support, creating a contested early tempo that will strip the pace out of this 1m Polytrack assignment. The field contains more genuine front-running and prominent types than can all secure forward position in a single race, so the lead will likely be contested between Moving Shadow (22% measured chance) and Home Hero (20%) with Vincent Rocks (13%) the most likely of the remainder to get handy; this congestion and pace consumption will suit prominent racers and midfield runners who can track the action and strike in the final furlong, while pure closers will find the tempo too hot to reel in survivors.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent racer pounces

38% probability

If Vincent Rocks, Date Line or Hot And Cold press the front-runners early and inherit the race in the final furlong.

The contested early tempo between Moving Shadow and Home Hero will create a galloping pace that burns out the leaders by the closing stages, leaving a well-positioned prominent racer to strike and hold on. This course and trip historically reward horses that sat just off the pace rather than those who led wire-to-wire.

Hot And ColdWinston's WarriorDate LineVincent Rocks

Home Hero leads home

28% probability

If Home Hero gets the upper hand in the early battle and holds enough in hand to beat Moving Shadow to the line.

Home Hero has led in five of its last six runs and lines up off just 1 day since last running, indicating freshness despite recent action. If David Probert can settle the 3-year-old and set a tempo it controls, the front-running profile can hold on, though the draw at 11 provides no advantage.

Home HeroMoving ShadowHot And ColdWinston's Warrior

Stalking midfielders strike

22% probability

If Winston's Warrior or Storm Point track the contested early pace and find room to make their move two furlongs out.

The prominent racers' battle up front will use up rivals, but strong recent form from Winston's Warrior (a win and three places from his last six) positions him ideally to pick the pieces. Midfield runners handle this trip well and will have the energy to sweep past tiring leaders.

Winston's WarriorStorm PointHot And ColdDuke's Command

Moving Shadow dominates

12% probability

If Moving Shadow breaks clear early and the field is unable to mount a serious challenge to its authority.

Moving Shadow has led in two of its last three runs, but it carries a going concern flag for no all-weather form and pulled hard recently, raising questions about its ability to control the tempo on Polytrack without assistance. Even if it gets the lead, the pace consumption from multiple rivals means survival to the line will be harder than its turf record suggests.

Moving ShadowVincent RocksHome HeroHot And Cold

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Moving Shadow and Home Hero will battle hard for the early lead; if both get their way the early pace will be genuine, but Moving Shadow's 55-day absence and lack of all-weather form are red flags for a front-running scenario.

WATCH

Assiri Heights is a natural prominent racer forced into a midfield map because the field is congested with pace; if he gets blocked or shuffled in the early scramble his true style will be compromised.

NOTE

Hot And Cold has won twice on standard Southwell ground and is among the highest-rated runners, but his yard tends to lead rather than stalk; monitor whether Prescott's tactics leave him too much in front too soon.

WATCH

Home Hero returns just one day after racing and is stepping up to a mile for the first time; his turf form does not translate to all-weather and his recent pattern (1-5-1-7-4-7) suggests he is running out of form.

NOTE

Winston's Warrior, top-rated by the form guide, offers the cleanest profile to track the contested early pace and strike late, and his 18-day freshness ensures sharpness.

6:00 — Follow @AtTheRaces On X Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

7f · Standard · CLS4 · 10 runners

Little Copper to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Mystic Unicorn led; the map had Little Copper in front.

News won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Little Copper

Prominent · 2

Shaqra QueenOrfilia

Midfield · 3

KeithaarConnie SachsNews

Hold Up · 4

Mystic UnicornMohangelLady NenazMa Blushin Rosie

Little Copper led at its only start and will be ridden positively from draw 10, with a 26% chance of securing the lead. Shaqra Queen and Orfilia both prefer prominent positions and are respected threats to go forward, but neither has a strong record of actually leading. If Little Copper gets the lead, the pace will likely be uncontested throughout the race—it pulled hard previously and again shows tendency to fade late, meaning the tempo will settle into a steady rhythm once established. This shape strongly favours midfield runners and hold-up horses, who historically win at this trip and going and will be ideally placed to pounce on a tiring front-runner in the closing stages rather than battle for a contested early pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses pick up tiring leader

38% probability

If Little Copper leads but fades again, as it did last time, and the pace remains uncontested enough for closers to position properly.

Hold-up runners have a solid record over 7f on this surface and will be fresh to strike in the final furlong against a front-runner that has shown a pattern of stopping. Ma Blushin Rosie, Mystic Unicorn, and Mohangel sit ideally in this shape and can arrive fresh.

Ma Blushin RosieMystic UnicornMohangelLady Nenaz

Prominent racer mixes it in midfield battle

28% probability

If Shaqra Queen or Orfilia settles in a stalking position rather than blitzing forward, and races a prominent racer's race from the middle.

Prominent racers have a historically strong record over this trip and going, outperforming expectations, and either Shaqra Queen or Orfilia can track Little Copper's early pace and strike three furlongs out. The lightly raced types cannot exploit a genuine two-horse war early.

Shaqra QueenOrfiliaLittle CopperMa Blushin Rosie

Midfield runner breaks through late

18% probability

If the pace is genuinely steady and an unraced type with tactical room (Keithaar, News, or Connie Sachs) finds room to advance in the final furlong.

Midfield runners historically win their share over this distance and going despite low recent wins, and lightly raced maidens often improve sharply when stepping up in class. One of the three unraced runners can slip through and outkick the tired front-runner.

KeithaarNewsOrfiliaShaqra Queen

Little Copper dominates throughout

16% probability

If Little Copper controls the race from flag to finish, something its form and fade pattern suggest is unlikely but possible if the field lacks genuine pace.

Front-runners win at a rate matching expectations over 7f on this surface, offering no particular edge, and Little Copper would need to show markedly improved stamina compared to its last start. A dominant lead scenario requires the runner to hold and press home, which runs counter to its recent history.

Little CopperShaqra QueenOrfiliaMystic Unicorn

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Little Copper leads but fades again—watch for Ma Blushin Rosie and Mystic Unicorn to strike from midfield two furlongs out, as both can exploit a tired front-runner.

WATCH

Shaqra Queen and Orfilia both pulled hard recently; if either breaks out early, it risks burning energy and opening the door for unraced types (Keithaar, News, Connie Sachs) to slip through in the mix.

NOTE

Three unraced maidens (Keithaar, News, Connie Sachs) will be unknown quantities; any bright start from draw 4 or 5 suggests their yard has laid out a forward plan.

KEY

Lady Nenaz fades in finish—despite hold-up profile and a 14-day preparation window, its track record warns against backing in a late surge.

NOTE

Mohangel returns after 76 days; condition off the break will be key, and the hold-up shape suits its pattern, but no recent form to lean on.

6:30 — Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap Stakes

7f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

Lead contested: Bella Bisbee v Handle With CareHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Handle With Care led, as the map showed.

Town Queen won at 6.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Bella BisbeeHandle With Care

Prominent · 5

Town QueenChantelleInside StoryBamiMiss Lady Grace

Midfield · 2

MerryPatricia R

Hold Up · 3

Lope El FuegoEnola GreyAfraj

Bella Bisbee (20% chance of the lead) and Handle With Care (14%) are confirmed front-runners who will fight for early control, creating a contested pace. Chantelle, Miss Lady Grace and Bami all want prominent positions, so traffic will build on the rail in the final two furlongs. The field lacks natural hold-up horses—Afraj and Enola Grey are being shown out of role—which means midfield runners will be tightly bunched and compromised late. Front-runners and prominent racers have both delivered solid records at this trip and going here, but the congestion created by five pace-demanding runners into a 12-runner field will fragment the field and favour a horse that can either secure the lead early without pulling hard, or land late from the wings where traffic is thinnest. The true front-running types (Bella Bisbee and Handle With Care) are mapped to positions they can realistically hold, so a lead-and-hold scenario is credible but not dominant; a stalker or a horse racing prominently but controlled, avoiding the fight for a squeezed lead group, holds a tactical edge.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker lands late from the wings

38% probability

If the lead group settles into a war of attrition, leaving a midfield runner time to strike 2f out.

Prominent racers have been outrun by hold-up horses at this distance on this going, and the congestion in the battle for the lead will create a window for a horse positioned out of the scrum. A controlled stalker rated 75–79 with a jockey confident enough to bide time will have clearer air and a rhythm advantage over the exhausted leaders.

MerryBamiMiss Lady GraceChantelle

Handle With Care dominates from the front

26% probability

If Handle With Care breaks well and settles in a rhythm early, forcing the second-tier pace horses to chase.

Handle With Care has led in 6 of its last 7 runs at this trip and has won twice on it; if Kieran O'Neill's Bella Bisbee fails to challenge or runs flat, a clear lead becomes a race-control scenario. The distance suits it and pulling hard is a concern, but the track and going both favour a front-runner that gets first use of the track.

Handle With CareChantelleBella BisbeeMerry

Bella Bisbee leads and holds on

21% probability

If Bella Bisbee forces the pace and Handle With Care cannot match the tempo early.

Bella Bisbee has led in 3 of its last 6 and was at the head of affairs last time out; if it gets away clean and settles without excessive strain, it can use its recent back-course experience to dictate. The danger is that the horse is light on recent form (11 days out, mixed record on standard going at 7f), and pull hard in the early stages will empty the tank by the closing furlong.

Bella BisbeeInside StoryChantelleMerry

Afraj or Chantelle pick up the pieces in chaos

15% probability

If the lead group shatters under pressure and no single horse gains daylight early.

Afraj and Chantelle have both won at this track on similar ground and carry ratings that are live if pace frays; redistribution means neither is a natural fit for their shown positions, so if neither Bella Bisbee nor Handle With Care establishes authority, a horse with a turn of foot racing out of rhythm can slip through and surprise at odds. The odds are lowest here because both carry out-of-role tags and the pace is too competitive for a truly messy race to develop.

AfrajChantelleMerryBami

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Chantelle and Bella Bisbee will both want the lead early, creating a two-way battle that could see both exhausted by 4f and gift an open race to Merry or Bami.

WATCH

Afraj and Handle With Care will pull hard from the outset; if neither is settled by Ghiani and O'Neill, a runaway pace could suit a trailing closer like Enola Grey, who is otherwise out of place.

NOTE

Miss Lady Grace has not raced for 102 days; if it returns sluggish, the midfield density will leave it no room to make up ground, but if sharp it is the most polished closer in the field.

KEY

Draw one and draw two (Merry and Bami) have a natural inside advantage if the race fragments; monitor their position at halfway to gauge whether the scrum will open up for a late run down the rail.

7:00 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Stakes

6f · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners

Imagine That likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Overbudget led; the map had Imagine That in front.

Overbudget won at 11.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Imagine That

Prominent · 4

Mister MoetTorbadosMy Mate MackleyLong Shot

Midfield · 5

La Belle ForestWhazzimoAudereStoneacre JoeOverbudget

Hold Up · 4

DeadlineIndependent AngelMusic And SongKoffee And Kale

Imagine That holds a 15% chance of taking the lead from draw 2, but the horse is racing out of natural role — it was led in only 2 of its last 6 runs and has not led since its previous outing 54 days ago. The field otherwise lacks a confirmed front-runner; Mister Moet and Torbados will race prominently if allowed, but neither shows the recent habit to force the issue. This race will be run at a moderate, uncontested pace if Imagine That takes it; if it does not, the lead group will be competitive midfield types pulling hard (La Belle Forest and Whazzimo have both pulled hard recently) with Stoneacre Joe and Overbudget — both true prominent runners — squeezed into the map's midfield because the field holds more pace-setters than can all secure their natural position. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip on this ground; however, a contested pace from horses forced to fight out of role, or an uncontested lead from a reluctant pacemaker, will sap tempo and favour hold-up runners arriving fresh in the final furlong. The tactical verdict: midfield and hold-up profiles are best positioned, because either the lead is surrendered to tactical runners making their own way, or it is held only softly by a horse that does not belong there.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up runners profit

38% probability

If the pace folds tamely or horses race out of position early

Midfield runners and hold-up types arrive fresh as the tempo ebbs; Koffee And Kale and Deadline are well-placed to strike late, with Music And Song and Independent Angel capable of picking up pieces. Front-runners have form here, but only if they hold the lead genuinely — a contested shambles suits the closers.

Koffee And KaleDeadlineMusic And SongIndependent Angel

Torbados contests early

28% probability

If Torbados and Mister Moet fight for position and dictate a true gallop

A genuine pace argument between genuine prominent racers sets up a test of stamina and speed over 6f; Torbados has winning form on all-weather and Mister Moet has won twice at this trip on similar ground. Either can hold on if others fade.

TorbadosMister MoetMy Mate MackleyLong Shot

La Belle Forest leads and shapes

20% probability

If La Belle Forest or Whazzimo settles the pace from the front despite lacking recent habit

Both have pulled hard and are mapped midfield; if either stumbles into the lead, it will be ridden positively and set a tempo that front-runners can follow. Front-runners win 1 in 7 over this trip, and La Belle Forest (OR 60) is well-treated.

La Belle ForestWhazzimoMister MoetTorbados

Imagine That dictates softly

14% probability

If Imagine That gets the lead and jockey Nicola Currie nurses it home without challenge

An uncontested lead from a horse out of role will keep the tempo slow and suit waiting runners more than the pacemaker itself. Currie will conserve; early pressure will not materialise.

Imagine ThatLong ShotOverbudgetStoneacre Joe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stoneacre Joe will want to race prominently but cannot secure that position; if forced to race midfield or held up, its tendency to fade will doom it and mask the field's true pace dynamic — monitor its position at halfway.

WATCH

La Belle Forest is mapped midfield but pulled hard in its last two runs; if it takes the lead despite lacking recent leading habit, an uncontested pace may arrive and trap hold-up runners — early trade will signal whether it is allowed to dictate.

WATCH

Overbudget and Stoneacre Joe are both genuine prominent types squeezed into the midfield; if either breaks through to contest the lead, the pace will sharpen and suit front-runners over closers — watch whether a genuine 2-horse battle forms in the first 3f.

NOTE

Torbados and Mister Moet are the only two runners with recent form at this trip on this going and winning record — monitor which of the two gets the better of the early argument, as the answer will likely determine whether pace holds or folds.

7:30 — Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

2m½f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Fabled Spirit likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Last Flight won at 2.25 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Fabled Spirit

Prominent · 3

Further MeasureHead GirlSir Griflet

Midfield · 2

Lady of CloverRogue Desire

Hold Up · 4

EdwardtheninthLast FlightGalahad ThreepwoodStopherandgo

Fabled Spirit is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and has a 26% chance of securing the lead, but the pace will not be strongly contested — it has led in only 2 of its last 6 runs and last time out did so, suggesting no burning desire to dominate. Further Measure and Head Girl are prominent types capable of racing alongside, but neither has a strong record of taking it forward; the field lacks a natural pace engine. If Fabled Spirit does get there, it will set a steadily run race with minimal pressure, allowing a stalker or closer to pick up the pieces in the final furlong. Prominent racers have a strong record at this trip and going, but only if they can secure and hold the position — in this shape, with no hot favourite forcing the issue, horses that settle in the midfield and arrive late hold the advantage. This race suits hold-up runners and well-placed stalkers, not front-runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Stalker closes late

38% probability

If Fabled Spirit leads but never pressures hard, a midfield racer arrives powerfully in the closing stages.

The uncontested gallop leaves the door open for a horse tracking in third or fourth to strike late; hold-up patterns have paid here and will suit this loose tempo. Edwardtheninth and Last Flight are both winners over this course and distance on similar ground and have the scope to pounce.

EdwardtheninthLast FlightRogue DesireLady of Clover

Lady of Clover dominates

28% probability

If Lady of Clover settles in midfield and finds enough in the straight to go clear late.

Lady of Clover has won twice at this track on standard ground and carries the highest rating; it fades in finishes occasionally but today's loose tempo and long run-in suit a horse that can accelerate hard past the post. Drawing 3 in a middle berth gives it simple tactical options.

Lady of CloverEdwardtheninthLast FlightHead Girl

Further Measure presses early

18% probability

If Further Measure or Head Girl take the lead from Fabled Spirit and set a more contested tempo.

A genuine race for the lead between these two would suit a prominent racer staying on strongly in the final quarter, but both are lightly raced at this trip and ground; the class is with the hold-up group. Neither has thrived at Southwell recently, and pulling hard as Further Measure does may cost energy over 2m½f.

Further MeasureHead GirlFabled SpiritRogue Desire

Fabled Spirit dictates

16% probability

If Fabled Spirit gets the lead and holds it to the line in a lone-hand victory.

Fabled Spirit would need to pin back its ears and establish a rhythm that no one can match, contradicting its patchy record of taking it forward in recent starts. This outcome depends on front-runners proving strong at the trip, which they have not; it remains the least likely.

Fabled SpiritSir GrifletFurther MeasureHead Girl

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lady of Clover has won twice here on this going and is the highest-rated horse; if it settles and finds room late, it is the clear danger to any front-runner.

WATCH

Further Measure pulled hard recently and may burn energy early over 2m½f; monitor the early pace and whether the jockey can settle it.

NOTE

Rogue Desire is a prominent racer in a field with more front-runners than can occupy the lead; expect it to settle further back than its natural style, which is a tactical disadvantage.

NOTE

Fabled Spirit led last time but has led in only 2 of 6 starts; do not assume it will dominate — an uncontested pace favours the chasers behind.

8:00 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes

5f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Managing Director to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Managing Director led, as the map showed.

Courageous Sioux won at 6.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Managing Director

Prominent · 3

Hanney GirlBrazilian BelleDance of Angels

Midfield · 1

Goyard

Hold Up · 2

Courageous SiouxRogue Bullet

Managing Director is the only confirmed front-runner and will likely set a solo lead if it breaks well from draw 6, with perhaps Hanney Girl or Brazilian Belle prominent but not pressing hard. The pace will be uncontested because there is no challenger capable of matching Managing Director's forward tendency — both Hanney Girl and Brazilian Belle lack the recent evidence of pace aggression to fight it out, and the field contains too many midfield and hold-up types to create any meaningful pressure. This shapes as a test of whether Managing Director's front-running can last 5 furlongs on ground it has not recently won on (last runs on turf), or whether a horse settled in midfield — where front-runners have historically matched their market expectations but prominent racers have held a small edge — can overtake a tiring leader. Front-runners and prominent racers both hold strong records here; the uncontested framing of this race favours whichever can get a clean run at the finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent racer picks up leader

38% probability

If Managing Director's lead comes unstuck in the final furlong and a midfield or prominent horse has tracked within striking distance.

Brazilian Belle and Goyard are perfectly suited to follow a lone pace into a sprint finish and pick off a tiring leader. This profile has matched market expectations consistently over this trip and going, and both carry recent course form to bank on.

Brazilian BelleGoyardCourageous SiouxRogue Bullet

Managing Director dictates throughout

32% probability

If Managing Director breaks cleanly and settles in front with no credible stalker harrying it.

The uncontested pace allows Managing Director to control fractions and hold on under Paul J. McDonald's riding, banking on its recent record of leading in 3 of 4 starts despite having no recent all-weather form to reference. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip here, and a solo lead removes the usual mid-race pressure points.

Managing DirectorCourageous SiouxBrazilian BelleGoyard

Rogue Bullet's power prevails late

18% probability

If Rogue Bullet settles and produces a late challenge despite being ridden out of its natural midfield position.

Mapped to hold up because the field lacks depth in that profile, Rogue Bullet is a strong galloper on good ground and has won over this trip; it races out of role, but its previous placement in the top three finishers over 5 furlongs on good ground offers a closing angle. Hold-up runners have underperformed their market expectations at this venue, but pure stamina can overcome the bias if the pace is truly messy.

Rogue BulletCourageous SiouxBrazilian BelleHanney Girl

Dance of Angels disturbs market

12% probability

If Dance of Angels breaks sharply from draw 4 and uses its recent pulling issues to force a genuine gallop that suits a closer.

Last run 147 days ago and noted for fighting the bridle recently, Dance of Angels could ignite a faster tempo that burns off front-runners, favoring hold-up types; however, this requires a substantial shift in its ridden approach and offers minimal support from recent form or course record. The long absence and lack of all-weather experience create too much uncertainty for a higher rating, but a change of pace scenario remains live in a field with limited obvious winners.

Courageous SiouxRogue BulletBrazilian BelleGoyard

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Managing Director has no recent all-weather winning form and may prove vulnerable to a well-ridden challenger if the uncontested pace dries it out inside the final furlong.

WATCH

Rogue Bullet is raced out of its natural style and carries a high rating with zero recent form; a tactical misfit despite its class, monitor how it is settled in the opening stages.

NOTE

Hanney Girl carries no all-weather form on its record and has failed from the prominent position on softer ground; it relies entirely on trainer and jockey habit to justify its initial position in the lead group.

NOTE

Brazilian Belle's 129-day lay-off is substantial, but the Strand scorecard endorsement and perfect all-weather course record over 5 furlongs suggests it may have been aimed at this race.

8:30 — Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Lead contested: Urchin v TopteamHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL

How it ran

Topteam led, as the map showed.

Solarize won at 9.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

UrchinTopteam

Prominent · 4

Golden KnightNolton CrossFierce FortitudeSolarize

Midfield · 1

Tryfan

Hold Up · 3

Cliff DangerThe Green MileAssail

Urchin and Topteam are both confirmed front-runners, with Urchin a 35% chance of securing the lead and Topteam at 14%; both led in three of their last four or all of their last two runs respectively. The early pace will be contested if both go forward, but Urchin is the more likely occupant of the lead — Topteam fades in the finish and carries a late concern flag. A congested prominent group of four runners (Fierce Fortitude, Nolton Cross, Golden Knight, Solarize) will fight for position 2–4, creating traffic and tactical confusion from two furlongs out. The field contains more front-running and prominent types than can all hold their natural positions; Urchin and Golden Knight are most likely to secure the lead or forcing position, while Tryfan—a genuine prominent racer—will be squeezed toward midfield and forced out of role. Front-runners have underperformed here (11.7% win rate, well below expectation), while midfield runners have significantly outperformed (14.8% win rate), strongly favouring horses that can settle off the pace and strike in the closing stages rather than those committed to early speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Midfield strike in heavy traffic

38% probability

If Urchin leads but the prominent pack jams up from three furlongs, allowing a settled midfield racer to find room late

The contested early pace and crowded turning for home will disrupt the front-runners and stalk horses; settled runners with room to manoeuvre will have the fresher kick. Midfield runners have won nearly 15% of races here, well above the field average, and this congestion plays directly to their strength.

The Green MileCliff DangerTryfanAssail

Golden Knight forces through

28% probability

If Golden Knight's yard-led attacking profile gains an uncontested prominent berth and dictates from two furlongs

A proactive ride with clear air avoids the traffic logjam; Golden Knight has form on the all-weather (won at 10f/Goo and 8f/Goo) and is well-treated at OR 89. However, the horse has no AW form in recent runs, creating material execution risk.

Golden KnightSolarizeFierce FortitudeNolton Cross

Urchin leads and holds

20% probability

If Urchin breaks clear early and turns this into a test of stamina at 1m4f

Urchin is the only horse with repeated lead credentials and will dominate the early miles if things fall right; the speed will suit its 115-day absence less than rivals who are sharper in form. Front-runners win only 11.7% at this track, a significant disadvantage.

UrchinTopteamGolden KnightFierce Fortitude

Tryfan rallies from squeeze

14% probability

If Tryfan gets shuffled back but finds racing room in the final furlong and rallies past the tiring front-runners

Tryfan is a genuine prominent horse racing out of position and will need to come from behind in this congested shape, a role it does not naturally favour. The horse has won at 1m4f and handles all-weather ground, but is betting against its own running style and the pace-setting congestion.

TryfanAssailCliff DangerNolton Cross

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Topteam fades in the finish despite leading credentials; expect it to set a genuine pace but tire from two out, allowing late-runners to exploit.

KEY

Traffic from two furlongs out will be severe: Golden Knight, Solarize, Fierce Fortitude, and Nolton Cross all want the same three slots, and will jam wheels in the turning-for-home phase.

WATCH

Solarize has won 67% of its races on this all-weather surface but has not run in 216 days; ring-rust is a material threat despite the form edge.

WATCH

Tryfan is a genuine prominent racer mapped to midfield; if it gets shuffled further back than OR merit suggests, it will be forced to come from too far and lose all tactical advantage.

NOTE

Golden Knight's yard is in form (4 winners from 40 last 14 days) and the horse has recent all-weather wins, but note: NO AW form recorded in this season's entries—check the system before backing.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 22 September 2026.

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