Archive›Southwell (AW) · 23 April 2026

Southwell (AW)

23 April 2026 · 8 races

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4:57 — Southwell Cardinal Conditions Stakes (GBB Race)

1m · Standard · CLS2 · 3 runners

Golden View likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Yazin won at 1.57. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 2 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Golden View

Prominent · 1

Yazin

Midfield · 1

Intense Vision

Hold Up · 0

None

Golden View will take the early lead from his prominent position with no other confirmed pace pressers in this small field. The Charlie Appleby runner can dictate comfortable fractions through the middle sections without serious pressure from Yazin or Intense Vision tracking behind. With only three runners and minimal early pace, this sets up as a tactical affair where the leader can control the tempo and kick when ready. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace from the start.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Golden View Controls

65% probability

If Golden View breaks cleanly and establishes an uncontested lead

He can dictate ideal fractions and has the class edge to kick clear when Buick asks, with his debut win showing he handles pressure well. The lack of early pace pressure allows him to conserve energy for a decisive move.

Golden ViewYazinIntense Vision

Tactical Battle Develops

20% probability

If Yazin or Intense Vision challenge Golden View early for the lead

The pace quickens earlier than expected, potentially setting up a late charge from whichever horse settles best. Golden View's stamina could be tested if pressed throughout.

YazinGolden ViewIntense Vision

Slow Pace Sprint

10% probability

If all three settle and nobody wants the lead early

It becomes a sprint from the furlong pole where raw speed and tactical positioning matter most. Golden View's proven acceleration gives him the edge in a dash.

Golden ViewYazinIntense Vision

Intense Vision Surprise

5% probability

If the French import shows significantly improved form on return

His two wins in France suggest untapped potential, and the long break could have him primed for a bold showing. The small field suits a horse needing a clear run.

Intense VisionGolden ViewYazin

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Golden View's fitness after 127 days off - any signs of rustiness early could open the door for his rivals

WATCH

Intense Vision's market move - any significant support suggests the French form translates better than ratings suggest

NOTE

Yazin's early positioning - Moore will need to get him close to dispute with Golden View to have any realistic chance

WATCH

The pace through the first half-mile - if it goes too slow it could neutralize Golden View's main advantage

NOTE

Golden View's response when first challenged - his debut win showed he could quicken but this is a step up in class

5:30 — Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 5 runners

Blue Deveron to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Beach Partee led; the map had Blue Deveron in front.

Life After Love won at 2.20 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Blue Deveron

Prominent · 2

BelieveinmenowSands Of Seve

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Beach ParteeLife After Love

Blue Deveron will take them along as the sole natural front runner, setting what should be a sustainable pace without early pressure. Believeinmenow and Sands Of Seve are likely to track in second and third, while Life After Love and Beach Partee will drop towards the rear from their hold-up styles. With minimal early pace pressure, the tempo will be honest but not frantic, setting up a sprint finish over the final furlong. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as they'll benefit from the solid pace and have fresher finishing speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Blue Deveron sets moderate fractions without early pressure

The sustained pace will perfectly suit Life After Love and Beach Partee who can unleash superior finishing kicks. Both hold-up specialists have winning form at this distance and will benefit from the race setup.

Life After LoveBeach ParteeBlue DeveronSands Of Seve

Front Runner Steals It

25% probability

If Blue Deveron gets soft fractions and kicks clear

The lack of early pace pressure allows him to dictate terms and his 28-day break may have sharpened him up. He was only beaten a neck on debut over course and distance.

Blue DeveronSands Of SeveLife After LoveBelieveinmenow

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Believeinmenow or Sands Of Seve get perfect positioning

Tracking the leader closely gives them first run at the pacesetter while avoiding traffic problems. Sands Of Seve's front-running win last time shows he has gate speed to position well.

Sands Of SeveBelieveinmenowLife After LoveBlue Deveron

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If Blue Deveron goes too slow and the field bunches

A crawling pace negates the hold-up horses' advantages and turns it into a lottery sprint from the furlong pole. The most naturally speedy horse with tactical pace wins.

BelieveinmenowSands Of SeveBlue DeveronBeach Partee

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Life After Love needs a strong pace to be effective - if Blue Deveron goes too slowly her hold-up style is compromised

WATCH

Blue Deveron's 28-day break could either sharpen him up or leave him needing the run in a competitive field

NOTE

Sands Of Seve's visor is retained after his front-running win suggesting connections want him more alert early

WATCH

Beach Partee disappointed on turf last time and needs to prove AW form translates back to this surface

NOTE

Believeinmenow drops back to 5f after struggling at 6f which may unlock improvement

6:00 — Dog Friendly Raceday Tues 2nd June Handicap

1m6f · Standard · HCAP · 5 runners

The Truant likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

John Galt led; the map had The Truant in front.

Swinging London won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Truant

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

Swinging LondonCaptain Brett

Hold Up · 2

Vaguely RoyalJohn Galt

The Truant stands alone as the only prominent runner in this small field, meaning he can dictate terms from the front without pressure. With four hold-up horses (John Galt, Swinging London, Vaguely Royal, Captain Brett) sitting behind him, The Truant will set a comfortable tempo that suits his own rhythm over this extended trip. The lack of pace pressure creates a tactical nightmare for the closers, who will need to time their runs perfectly from what could be a dawdling gallop. This race shape strongly favours The Truant's front-running tactics, as he can control the race without interference and kick clear when the closers are still organizing their challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominates

55% probability

If The Truant gets an easy lead and maintains it

The veteran controls every fraction without pressure, then has enough left to resist late challenges from the hold-up brigade. His recent Irish form suggests stamina reserves that prove decisive when he dictates terms.

The TruantSwinging LondonJohn GaltVaguely Royal

Late Surge Prevails

25% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and suits closers

The dawdling fractions allow the hold-up horses to produce sustained finishes, with class telling in the final furlong. Swinging London's dual course winner status becomes crucial in a tight finish.

Swinging LondonJohn GaltThe TruantCaptain Brett

Tactical Speed Wins

12% probability

If The Truant faces unexpected early pressure or fades

A moderate pace develops but The Truant either gets company early or his 9-year-old legs give way, allowing the better-rated closers to capitalize. John Galt's consistency at this level proves key.

John GaltVaguely RoyalSwinging LondonThe Truant

Returning Runner Strikes

8% probability

If Captain Brett's 257-day break proves beneficial rather than detrimental

The David Simcock-trained runner returns refreshed from his long layoff and benefits from the likely tactical pace scenario. His previous 1m6f Yarmouth win shows he has the stamina to capitalize late.

Captain BrettThe TruantSwinging LondonJohn Galt

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Truant's early fractions - if genuinely dawdling he becomes almost unbeatable but quick sectionals could set up closers

WATCH

Captain Brett's fitness levels after 257 days off - any early signs of rustiness or sharpness will indicate his chances immediately

NOTE

How aggressively the hold-up quartet position themselves - sitting too far back in a slowly-run race could prove fatal

WATCH

Swinging London's jumping from the stalls given his course form advantage - needs to be handy enough to use his local knowledge

NOTE

The pace through the middle sections - genuinely slow fractions will favor stamina while moderate tempo suits the better-rated closers

6:30 — Book The Bistro In Sherwood Restaurant Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m3f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Marnier to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Marnier and Lady Ridgewood led, as the map showed.

Elsass won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Marnier

Prominent · 2

Desert ShadowLady Ridgewood

Midfield · 1

Yaa Min

Hold Up · 2

New York MinuteElsass

Marnier stands alone as the confirmed front-runner and will set an uncontested lead, allowing him to dictate terms throughout the 1m3f trip. Lady Ridgewood, Desert Shadow and Yaa Min are all prominent racers who will likely settle just behind the leader, creating a compact group through the early stages. With no genuine pace pressure on Marnier, he can control fractions and save energy for the finish, while the hold-up horses New York Minute and Elsass face the challenge of making ground from the back in a slowly-run affair. This tactical setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace without expending excessive energy.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Marnier Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Marnier gets the soft lead he's likely to receive and maintains his rhythm

The uncontested leader can dictate ideal fractions and prove hard to peg back up the straight. His stamina-laden pedigree and tactical advantage make him the primary beneficiary of this race shape.

MarnierLady RidgewoodDesert ShadowYaa Min

Prominent Racers Strike

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuine enough to stretch Marnier in the closing stages

Lady Ridgewood and Desert Shadow can utilise their class advantage from prominent positions to sweep past a tiring leader. Their superior ratings and race fitness give them the edge in a tactical battle.

Lady RidgewoodDesert ShadowYaa MinMarnier

Hold-Up Horse Charges

15% probability

If the early pace is crawling and creates a sprint finish scenario

New York Minute's strong recent form and finishing kick could prove decisive if he can navigate traffic from the rear. His hat-trick winning streak demonstrates current wellbeing despite the tactical disadvantage.

New York MinuteElsassMarnierLady Ridgewood

Upset from Outsider

10% probability

If the favorites fail to handle the tactical nature or distance demands

Yaa Min or Elsass could benefit from the lack of early pace if connections have found significant improvement. Their lower weights become more relevant in a slowly-run contest where fitness matters.

Yaa MinElsassNew York MinuteDesert Shadow

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Marnier getting too soft a lead through the early stages - if uncontested he becomes very difficult to pass

WATCH

Lady Ridgewood showing any signs of ring-rust given the 252-day absence and poor recent stable form

WATCH

New York Minute and Elsass getting too far back if the pace is genuine - both need tactical luck from their running styles

NOTE

Desert Shadow's attitude after the Meydan disappointment - needs to bounce back to form

NOTE

Yaa Min handling the step up in class after beating weaker company at Lingfield last time

7:00 — Come Racing For Free 18th June Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Lexington Express to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lexington Express led, as the map showed.

Lexington Express won at 5.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lexington Express

Prominent · 1

Aneirin's Sword

Midfield · 2

Cobalt CometAction Reaction

Hold Up · 2

RaspoutineClear Above

Lexington Express will take the field along as the sole confirmed front runner, with Aneirin's Sword likely to track in second. With no pace pressure on the leader, Lexington Express can dictate moderate fractions while the quartet of hold-up horses (Clear Above, Action Reaction, Raspoutine, Cobalt Comet) settle at the back. This creates a classic scenario where one horse controls the tempo without being harassed early. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid traffic problems that will inevitably develop when four hold-up horses try to find racing room in the straight.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Lexington Express gets easy sectionals and maintains his kick

The front runner exploits perfect positioning while hold-up horses face a wall of traffic when making their moves. Marco Ghiani can time his effort perfectly from the ideal tactical position.

Lexington ExpressAneirin's SwordRaspoutineClear Above

Late Charge Succeeds

30% probability

If the pace becomes too steady and allows closers time

Raspoutine and Clear Above find clear runs and exploit their superior recent form to reel in a tiring leader. The superior class of the Prescott runner particularly tells in a strongly-run finish.

RaspoutineClear AboveLexington ExpressAneirin's Sword

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Aneirin's Sword gets first run on the leader

Saffie Osborne times her challenge perfectly as Lexington Express comes under pressure, while the hold-up quartet are caught flat-footed. The Osborne stable form and prominent position prove decisive.

Aneirin's SwordLexington ExpressRaspoutineClear Above

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If both front runners stop quickly in the final furlong

A crawling pace suits none of the hold-up horses either, creating a messy finish where fitness and recent form become paramount. Raspoutine's recent Southwell win gives him the edge in a scramble.

RaspoutineAction ReactionClear AboveCobalt Comet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lexington Express breaking slowly would completely alter the pace scenario as no other natural leader exists

WATCH

Traffic problems developing in the straight as four hold-up horses (Clear Above, Action Reaction, Raspoutine, Cobalt Comet) converge

WATCH

Aneirin's Sword's response to pressure given the drop back from his last turf run over longer

NOTE

Marco Ghiani's early positioning on Lexington Express to establish how controlled the lead will be

NOTE

Whether Action Reaction or Cobalt Comet show any early speed to complicate the tactical picture

7:30 — Conference & Events At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B, C and D) (GBB Race)

7f · Standard · NOV · 10 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

8:00 — Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Louie The Legend likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

On Key led; the map had Louie The Legend in front.

Bomb Squad won at 4.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Louie The Legend

Prominent · 1

On Key

Midfield · 5

MwafaqFools Rush InBomb SquadBerning HotAdelaide Bay

Hold Up · 3

SearchingthebluesEnpassantMereside Madness

Louie The Legend is the only confirmed front runner but his recent poor form and low TopSpeed rating suggest he may not set a strong gallop. On Key sits prominent but has been racing over shorter trips recently. With most runners preferring to hold up including recent winner Enpassant, hat-trick seeking Mwafaq, and consistent Bomb Squad, this sets up as a moderate pace scenario. The lack of genuine early speed will create a tactical affair that strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce a sustained finish over the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Weak Pace Favours Closers

65% probability

If Louie The Legend sets uncontested fractions and the field bunches up

The moderate gallop will suit the numerous hold-up horses who can time their runs perfectly. Enpassant, Mwafaq and Bomb Squad all have the tactical speed to capitalise when the race opens up.

EnpassantMwafaqBomb SquadSearchingtheblues

Prominent Runners Capitalize

20% probability

If On Key and Louie The Legend maintain position while others struggle for room

The two prominently-raced horses avoid the traffic problems that could hinder the hold-up brigade in the straight. On Key's recent close second form gives him every chance to go one better.

On KeyLouie The LegendEnpassantMwafaq

Strong Finish Required

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely in the middle sections creating a sprint finish

Only horses with genuine turn of foot will be effective in a slowly-run contest decided in the final furlong. The classier performers with higher RPR ratings will dominate.

MwafaqBomb SquadEnpassantOn Key

Early Leader Holds On

5% probability

If Louie The Legend finds improvement and dictates throughout at steady fractions

His front-running style could prove effective if he can find his old form and the closers leave their runs too late. The moderate pace would play into his hands perfectly.

Louie The LegendOn KeyEnpassantMwafaq

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Louie The Legend may not provide sufficient early pace which could create a muddling gallop unsuitable for his style

WATCH

Enpassant carries a 5lb penalty for his recent win and may struggle to dominate from his hold-up position if pace is weak

NOTE

Mwafaq partners claiming jockey Ethan Tindall for the first time despite being in excellent form

WATCH

On Key showed clear improvement last time as runner-up and could benefit from prominent position if pace collapses

NOTE

Bomb Squad has strong course form but trainer John Mackie is 0 from 7 in the last 14 days

8:30 — Summer Social Events At Southwell Racecourse Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 6 runners

Moostar likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Valsharah led; the map had Moostar in front.

Raft Up won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Moostar

Prominent · 1

Blackjack

Midfield · 2

ValsharahFircombe Hall

Hold Up · 2

Raft UpMegaphone

Moostar will take this race on from the gates with no other confirmed front runners in the field. Blackjack sometimes leads but hasn't shown that spark lately, leaving Moostar with an uncontested lead through steady fractions. The prominent runners Valsharah and Blackjack will track behind, while the hold-up horses Raft Up, Fircombe Hall and Megaphone will need to rely on a strong finish. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers who can position close to the pace without pressure.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Moostar Wire To Wire

45% probability

If Moostar breaks cleanly and gets an easy lead with no pressure from the field

She can dictate comfortable fractions and prove hard to peg back, especially with her recent form upturn since the tongue-tie addition. The lack of early pace pressure allows her to save energy for the finish and her prominent style becomes the winning move.

MoostarValsharahBlackjackRaft Up

Late Kick Prevails

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow in the middle stages and bunches the field for a sprint finish

Fircombe Hall's hold-up style becomes the weapon as Hollie Doyle can find the clearest path through traffic in the final furlong. His recent Wolverhampton wins show he has the acceleration to strike when the pace collapses.

Fircombe HallRaft UpMegaphoneValsharah

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Valsharah can position perfectly behind Moostar and time his challenge in the final 100 yards

The tongue-tie has transformed his recent efforts and Jason Watson can use his 21-race experience to finally break his maiden tag. His second at Kempton proves he has the finishing kick when positioned right.

ValsharahBlackjackMoostarRaft Up

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Moostar goes too fast early or Blackjack surprisingly challenges for the lead creating pace pressure

The race becomes a pure stamina test where Raft Up's hold-up style under Ethan Tindall becomes effective despite his 5-pound claim. His Newcastle placings behind Yorkshire Glory show he responds to a truly run race.

Raft UpFircombe HallMegaphoneValsharah

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Moostar breaking slowly would completely change the pace dynamic as no other natural leader emerges from this field

WATCH

Blackjack showing early speed could create unexpected pace pressure and compromise Moostar's tactics

NOTE

Fircombe Hall's position turning for home will indicate if the pace has been strong enough for his finishing kick

NOTE

Valsharah's positioning behind the leader will show if Watson can finally convert his recent improvement into a maiden win

WATCH

Raft Up racing keenly again would repeat his disappointing effort from 16 days ago over the longer trip

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 23 April 2026.

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