Archive›Southwell (AW) · 25 April 2026

Southwell (AW)

25 April 2026 · 7 races

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5:30 — Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse "Confined" Apprentice Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Coast to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Irish Dancer led; the map had Coast in front.

Brian The Snail won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Coast

Prominent · 2

Clover TimeIrish Dancer

Midfield · 2

Sonic SiMan On A Mission

Hold Up · 2

Cabeza De LlaveBrian The Snail

Coast will take them along from the front as the sole confirmed pace-setter, but with only seven runners this shouldn't create a punishing gallop. The prominent runners Clover Time and Irish Dancer will track Coast closely, while the hold-up brigade of Cabeza De Llave, Sonic Si, Brian The Snail and Man On A Mission will need to come from behind over this sharp 5f trip. With Coast likely to get an easy lead and multiple closers having to make up ground in a short space, this race shape clearly favours the early pace and prominent runners who can get into good positions from the start.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Coast Gets Easy Lead

45% probability

If Coast is allowed to dictate an uncontested pace from the front

The front-runner gets first run and holds on, while the prominent runners pick up the pieces as closers struggle to make up ground in time over 5f. Early pace dominance rewards the pace-setters and tracker types.

CoastClover TimeIrish DancerMan On A Mission

Prominent Pair Pounce

30% probability

If Clover Time and Irish Dancer track Coast perfectly and time their challenges

The pair of them come off Coast's pace in the final furlong with the hold-up horses still organizing their runs. Their race fitness and course experience (Irish Dancer) proves decisive over the closers.

Irish DancerClover TimeCoastSonic Si

Late Closer Strikes

15% probability

If the early pace is stronger than expected and sets up a closer

One of the hold-up horses gets the perfect trip as the pace collapses, with Cabeza De Llave or Sonic Si timing their run to perfection. The front-runners pay for their early exertions over this minimum trip.

Cabeza De LlaveSonic SiMan On A MissionBrian The Snail

Veteran Surprise Package

10% probability

If Brian The Snail or Man On A Mission find their old form with tactical riding

Experience tells as one of the older campaigners uses track knowledge and race positioning to outmaneuver younger rivals. Class and cunning overcome recent moderate form.

Brian The SnailMan On A MissionIrish DancerCoast

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Coast must be monitored for early pace - if he goes too fast he'll set it up for closers, if too slow he might steal it

WATCH

Irish Dancer's rebound attempt after poor run 10 days ago - his course form is excellent but recent effort concerning

WATCH

Man On A Mission trying visors for first time while dropping back to 5f - double equipment and distance change

NOTE

Clover Time's ability to finally convert placings into a win after five consecutive runner-up efforts

NOTE

The impact of the 45+ day breaks for Coast and Cabeza De Llave on their race sharpness over this sprint trip

6:00 — Summer Social Events At Southwell Racecourse Handicap

1m6f · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Rose Warrior likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Sovereign Applause led; the map had Rose Warrior in front.

Hickton won at 12.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Rose Warrior

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 8

HicktonAngelardoNala The LionessArgentumRing FencedTrouble In ChicagoEaster SundaeApache Eagle

Hold Up · 2

Sovereign ApplauseAbila

Rose Warrior is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should get an uncontested lead, setting a sustainable pace over the 1m6f trip. With all other runners showing hold-up tendencies, there's no early pressure expected, allowing Rose Warrior to dictate terms throughout. The lack of prominent racers means the field will be strung out behind the leader, creating a tactical race where positioning will be crucial. This race shape strongly favours horses with tactical speed who can track the pace and those with proven finishing kicks from off the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If Rose Warrior maintains a steady gallop and has enough left in the tank

The lack of early pace pressure allows Rose Warrior to control the race completely, while late closers struggle to make up the ground on the long run-in. Front runners and those able to track the pace early benefit most from this tactical setup.

Rose WarriorRing FencedHicktonApache Eagle

Strong Late Surge

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and bunches up the field for a sprint finish

The sustained gallop turns into a cavalry charge in the final 2f, suiting horses with proven finishing speed. Class horses with turn of foot from the back benefit as the race becomes a pure stamina test.

AbilaHicktonRing FencedSovereign Applause

Mid Race Acceleration

15% probability

If jockeys push forward from the 6f pole to challenge Rose Warrior

The tactical battle heats up mid-race as hold-up horses are forced to commit earlier than ideal. This suits horses with versatile running styles who can adapt to the changing pace dynamics.

AngelardoApache EagleHicktonRing Fenced

Pace Collapse Sprint

10% probability

If Rose Warrior stops suddenly and the field closes dramatically in the final furlong

A messy finish develops where positioning becomes everything and horses with any tactical speed benefit. The race becomes a lottery favouring those closest to the pace when it matters.

Sovereign ApplauseArgentumEaster SundaeNala The Lioness

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Rose Warrior must be watched for market support given the 193-day absence and complete change of environment

WATCH

Monitor any early moves to challenge Rose Warrior as this could set up the race for strong late finishers

NOTE

Apache Eagle's course experience at this distance makes him dangerous if reproducing his recent third-place effort

WATCH

Hickton's bleeding issue last time needs assessing, as any recurrence would severely impact his chances

NOTE

Watch for Abila to be produced late with a sustained run as De Sousa rarely gets these bookings without good reason

6:30 — Book The Bistro In Sherwood Restaurant Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Standard · NOV · 8 runners

Temple likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ramli led; the map had Temple in front.

Birgham Dub won at 5.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Temple

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

Peat And DieselChasing TimeBirgham DubFlorentine LawDartmouth Jet

Hold Up · 2

RamliKenneth

Temple stands alone as the only prominent runner, meaning he can dictate terms from the front without pressure. With Chasing Time, Kenneth, Birgham Dub, Ramli, Florentine Law and Dartmouth Jet all preferring to sit back, this creates a race where the pace will be modest early before a sustained drive from halfway. The lack of early speed means Temple won't be harassed, allowing him to string out the field in the straight. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can produce their best work late, as they'll get the perfect tempo to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominant

65% probability

If Temple sets a steady tempo without early pressure

The patient riders get perfect conditions to unleash their finishes, with the long Southwell straight suiting closers. Quality prevails as the better-rated hold-up horses like Kenneth and Chasing Time come through late.

KennethChasing TimeBirgham DubRamli

Prominent Horse Steals It

20% probability

If Temple's uncontested lead proves too valuable to peg back

Despite the moderate pace, Temple gets first run and the hold-up horses leave their effort too late on the testing surface. The front-runner holds on as the closers fall just short.

TempleFlorentine LawKennethChasing Time

Pace Collapse Favours One

10% probability

If the tempo becomes crawling and it turns into a sprint finish

The race becomes a dash from the final two furlongs, suiting whoever has the best turn of foot. This benefits the most progressive horse who can quicken sharply off the slow pace.

Chasing TimeKennethTempleBirgham Dub

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

5% probability

If the favourites get caught flat-footed by tactical complications

Poor positioning or traffic problems hit the market leaders, allowing a longer-priced runner to steal through. The race falls apart tactically for the principals.

RamliDartmouth JetFlorentine LawTemple

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Temple could steal this if he gets too soft a lead early and the hold-up horses are caught napping

WATCH

Kenneth's 378-day absence is a concern despite his obvious class advantage over most of these

WATCH

Chasing Time's debut win came on all-weather but this standard surface may play differently

NOTE

Birgham Dub's breeding suggests he wants further than seven furlongs so the step up in trip could unlock improvement

NOTE

The claimer on Temple reduces his burden significantly and could make him more competitive than his rating suggests

7:00 — Happy Retirement Stephen Gregory Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Bell Shot to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bell Shot led, as the map showed.

Winston's Warrior won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bell Shot

Prominent · 2

Rock IguanaSelection

Midfield · 3

EligibleFarasi LaneWinston's Warrior

Hold Up · 3

Down To The KidBelieve The StormKisskodi

Bell Shot will take this race by the scruff of the neck from the gates, with his confirmed front-running style likely to dictate terms throughout. Rock Iguana and Selection may track him in second and third, but neither has the early pace to seriously pressure Bell Shot through the opening stages. The uncontested lead will create a sustainable gallop that allows Bell Shot to string out the field, with the hold-up horses like Farasi Lane, Winston's Warrior and Down To The Kid facing a difficult task trying to make up ground from off the pace. This race shape clearly favours prominent racers and the lone front-runner, as the lack of early pace pressure will make it very difficult for closers to reel in the leaders.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Wins

45% probability

If Bell Shot jumps cleanly and faces no early pressure from the prominent runners

Bell Shot will dictate comfortable fractions and have enough left in the tank to repel late challenges, with the string-out effect making it impossible for hold-up horses to close the gap. His 6f win here in January proves he can handle Southwell when getting his own way in front.

Bell ShotRock IguanaSelectionDown To The Kid

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Rock Iguana or Selection can sit close enough to Bell Shot without expending too much energy

The tracker will be perfectly positioned to pounce when Bell Shot begins to tire in the final furlong, having saved ground and energy throughout. Rock Iguana's course form and Selection's class edge under De Sousa make them the most likely beneficiaries.

Rock IguanaSelectionBell ShotFarasi Lane

Late Closer Surges

15% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely strong with Bell Shot going too fast or facing more pressure than expected

Down To The Kid's exceptional Southwell record (nine wins here) and current form will allow him to produce his trademark late surge to collar the leaders close home. Farasi Lane's recent winning form could also see him finish strongly if the pace collapses.

Down To The KidFarasi LaneWinston's WarriorBell Shot

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

10% probability

If the race fragments with Bell Shot going too slow or the prominent horses failing to track him properly

Winston's Warrior could benefit from the first-time return to this trip in over six months, while Eligible's course specialization might overcome his lofty handicap mark. The lack of early pace could bring these bigger prices into play if the favorites underperform.

Winston's WarriorEligibleBelieve The StormKisskodi

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bell Shot getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive given his front-running style and lack of early pace pressure from rivals

WATCH

Down To The Kid's late kick may be blunted if Bell Shot sets modest fractions and strings out the field early

WATCH

Rock Iguana and Selection must track Bell Shot closely from the start as sitting too far back will make their task impossible

NOTE

Farasi Lane needs the pace to develop strongly to utilize his finishing kick after recent back-to-back wins

NOTE

Winston's Warrior and Believe The Storm both face fitness concerns after lengthy breaks and may need this run

7:30 — Conference & Events At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Bands B, C & D) (GBB)

6f · Standard · CLS5 · 13 runners

Zambezi Diamond to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Zarinca won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Zambezi Diamond

Prominent · 4

ZarincaSandy CraicPositive ThoughtsMoonlight Angel

Midfield · 4

WhazzimoRumble RubyRiankaRivera Queen

Hold Up · 4

Highland BearLuna CelesteDreamaderaThe Wind And Sun

Zambezi Diamond is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner maiden, giving her an uncontested lead over 6f at Southwell. With prominent runners like Zarinca, Sandy Craic, Positive Thoughts and Moonlight Angel likely to settle just behind, the pace should be honest but not destructive. The large field creates natural compression in midfield, while hold-up horses Luna Celeste, Highland Bear, Dreamadera and The Wind And Sun face the challenge of finding gaps from the back. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the lone leader without pressure, then strike in the final 2f when Zambezi Diamond's stamina limitations surface.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent horses track Zambezi Diamond comfortably through honest fractions

The experienced prominent runners get ideal splits tracking the leader before unleashing finishing kicks that the hold-up horses cannot match from too far back. Zarinca, Sandy Craic and Positive Thoughts have the tactical speed and proven form to capitalise perfectly.

ZarincaSandy CraicPositive ThoughtsLuna Celeste

Debut Winner Emerges

25% probability

If one of the well-bred newcomers shows natural ability and gets a good trip

The lightly-raced fillies with strong pedigrees benefit from the honest pace and limited early pressure, with Rumble Ruby or Whazzimo producing debut strikes. Their inexperience is offset by the straightforward tactical scenario.

Rumble RubyWhazzimoRiankaZarinca

Hold-Up Horse Flies Home

12% probability

If the pace becomes stronger than expected or the field spreads out significantly

Luna Celeste or Highland Bear get the perfect setup from the back as the early pace takes its toll on the leaders and prominent runners. The gaps open up naturally in the final furlong for these proven hold-up performers to exploit.

Luna CelesteHighland BearSandy CraicZarinca

Zambezi Diamond Wire-to-Wire

8% probability

If Zambezi Diamond improves significantly for her long absence and handles the trip better

The confirmed leader uses her uncontested advantage to build an unassailable lead, with her stamina concerns proving unfounded over this minimum trip. Her tactical advantage proves decisive despite question marks over her ability.

Zambezi DiamondZarincaSandy CraicPositive Thoughts

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Zambezi Diamond could steal this if her stamina holds over 6f and the field allows her too much rope early

WATCH

Luna Celeste's hold-up style faces significant challenges in a large field but has the best recent form

NOTE

Sandy Craic's recent 8f failure suggests 6f return could unlock improvement for this prominent runner

WATCH

The three newcomers Rumble Ruby, Rianka and Whazzimo all carry significant market respect despite unproven status

NOTE

Zarinca showed clear promise at Newcastle and the 6f trip returning to her debut distance looks ideal

8:00 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 5 runners

Safe Harbor likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Safe Harbor led, as the map showed.

Delinquent won at 1.80 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Safe Harbor

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

KalokaloWhat Fools Believe

Hold Up · 2

DelinquentMy Champion

Safe Harbor sits as the only natural early leader in this small field, likely to dictate from the front without pressure. Delinquent, My Champion, Kalokalo and What Fools Believe all prefer to come from behind, creating a pace-light scenario where the tempo could crawl. With no genuine speed horses to challenge Safe Harbor early, fractions will be comfortable until the final 2-3 furlongs when the hold-up brigade makes their move. This race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will affect the back-markers in a bunched finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Safe Harbor gets an easy lead and comfortable fractions

The pace-setter controls the race from pillar to post while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from their back-markers positions. Traffic issues compound as four horses with similar late-running styles converge in the straight.

Safe HarborMy ChampionDelinquentWhat Fools Believe

Late Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the hold-up quartet get bunched approaching the turn

Four horses with identical profiles create a cavalry charge that gets messy in the straight with multiple hard-luck stories. The winner emerges from whoever gets the clearest run through the melee.

What Fools BelieveDelinquentMy ChampionKalokalo

Crawling Pace Suits Closers

15% probability

If Safe Harbor goes too slowly and dies in the straight

The uncontested leader pays for pedestrian fractions as the stronger finishers overwhelm in the final furlong. Superior class and finishing kick trumps tactical advantage.

DelinquentMy ChampionWhat Fools BelieveKalokalo

Lone Speed Dominates

10% probability

If Safe Harbor maintains stamina reserves despite easy lead

The front-runner's sustainable gallop proves too much for the closers who lack the pace to bridge the gap. Tactical positioning beats raw ability in a slowly-run race.

Safe HarborWhat Fools BelieveMy ChampionDelinquent

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Safe Harbor could steal this if getting uncontested lead - 116-day absence and small field tactical advantage

WATCH

Kalokalo's 203-day layoff is extreme even with previous course form - fitness levels uncertain

WATCH

Traffic problems likely for Delinquent and My Champion given their hold-up styles and jockey positioning

NOTE

What Fools Believe faces 4lb class rise after 0-55 win but has strongest recent form line

NOTE

Ashley Lewis's 5lb claim on My Champion could prove crucial if race becomes competitive finish

8:30 — Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Iconic Times to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Avatar Jet led; the map had Iconic Times in front.

Avatar Jet won at 8.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Iconic Times

Prominent · 1

Give Me The Night

Midfield · 6

King Of YorkSoames ForsyteAge Of BaroqueGoldie TrickettAvatar JetJohnjay

Hold Up · 3

SuperfortressMarry The NightPlutarch

Iconic Times will take this race by the throat from the start with no other confirmed front runners to challenge his lead. This creates a sustainable pace scenario where he can dictate terms without pressure, controlling fractions through the early and middle stages. The pack of hold-up horses including Marry The Night, Superfortress, and King Of York will be bunched behind, relying on the pace to collapse. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can track the leader, as the hold-up brigade may find themselves with too much to do if Iconic Times maintains his rhythm.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Iconic Times maintains steady fractions without pressure from behind.

He can kick clear approaching the final furlong with the hold-up horses struggling to close the gap in time. Front runners and prominent racers benefit from the uncontested lead and tactical advantage.

Iconic TimesGive Me The NightMarry The NightSuperfortress

Late Surge Succeeds

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and Iconic Times stops in the final 2f.

The hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with plenty left in the tank for sustained finishing kicks. Quality closers like Marry The Night can unleash their best form over this course and distance.

Marry The NightKing Of YorkSoames ForsyteAge Of Baroque

Pace Duel Develops

15% probability

If Give Me The Night or another prominent runner pressures Iconic Times early.

Both pace angles collapse from fighting each other, setting up the race for strong finishers. Mid-division runners who can switch off then produce late bursts benefit most.

SuperfortressAge Of BaroqueSoames ForsyteGoldie Trickett

Messy Pace Suits Outsider

10% probability

If the field bunches up mid-race with no clear tactical advantage emerging.

An unfancied runner gets a perfect trip tracking the right horse at the right moment. Horses returning from breaks or trying new tactics can capitalize on the confusion.

Goldie TrickettAvatar JetPlutarchJohnjay

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Iconic Times breaking fast and getting an uncontested lead - could prove unstoppable if allowed easy fractions

WATCH

Give Me The Night pulling hard early and disrupting the pace - his tendency to fight could ruin both front-running chances

NOTE

Marry The Night's position at halfway - needs to be handy to use his course form given the likely lack of pace

WATCH

Soames Forsyte missing the break again - his slow starts are problematic when pace may be modest

NOTE

Goldie Trickett's early movement for new connections - trainer switch and long absence make her hard to assess

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 25 April 2026.

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