Archive›Southwell (AW) · 28 April 2026

Southwell (AW)

28 April 2026 · 7 races

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2:20 — Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

Saisons d'Or to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Saisons d'Or led, as the map showed.

Saisons d'Or won at 7.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Saisons d'Or

Prominent · 3

Hint Of The JungleDolly's DelightKamekist

Midfield · 4

Reenie's DreamKing SharjaBallybaymoonshinerBrother Dave

Hold Up · 4

Fistral BeachSplit ElevensRiver WharfeEnglish Lady

Saisons d'Or will be the lone pace-setter from the outset, setting an uncontested lead with no other confirmed front-runners to pressure him. Hint Of The Jungle and Kamekist will track prominently in second and third, while the majority of the field - including English Lady, Fistral Beach, Split Elevens, River Wharfe, King Sharja, Ballybaymoonshiner, Reenie's Dream and Brother Dave - will sit back in hold-up positions. This creates a modest early gallop that will quicken from halfway as the large pack of hold-up horses fan out for their challenges. The race shape strongly favors hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as they'll have every chance to close on a potentially vulnerable lone leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

65% probability

If the large pack of hold-up horses time their runs effectively from halfway

The modest early pace allows closers to position perfectly and overwhelm Saisons d'Or's uncontested lead in the final furlong. Multiple hold-up horses will hit the front simultaneously, creating a cavalry charge finish.

Fistral BeachEnglish LadySplit ElevensRiver Wharfe

Prominent Tracker Strikes

20% probability

If Hint Of The Jungle uses his prominent position to launch first from the pack

His recent 7f wins and handy position behind the leader allows him to get first run on the field while others are still organizing their challenges. The move catches hold-up horses napping as they're forced to come from further back.

Hint Of The JungleKamekistDolly's DelightBrother Dave

Leader Holds Gamely

10% probability

If Saisons d'Or utilizes the slow early pace to conserve energy for a strong finish

The 11-year-old's experience allows him to dictate terms throughout, quickening just enough to maintain his advantage as the hold-up horses close late. His uncontested lead proves decisive in a tight finish.

Saisons d'OrHint Of The JungleEnglish LadyFistral Beach

Rapid Early Challenge

5% probability

If multiple horses challenge Saisons d'Or much earlier than expected, creating genuine pace pressure

The increased tempo stretches the field and sets up a genuine staying test over the 7f trip. Late-closing stamina types benefit from the stronger gallop while speed horses tire.

King SharjaBallybaymoonshinerSplit ElevensBrother Dave

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Saisons d'Or may get too easy a lead early - watch if he's allowed to crawl through opening stages unchallenged

WATCH

Hint Of The Jungle's prominent position could be decisive - monitor if he travels smoothly tracking the leader

NOTE

English Lady and Fistral Beach both carry claiming riders - watch their positioning entering the home straight

WATCH

King Sharja and Ballybaymoonshiner return from long breaks - observe early signs of fitness or ring-rustiness

NOTE

Brother Dave carries just 123lbs - watch if the lightweight can make use of his advantageous burden

2:55 — Wright Vigar Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Arlington likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Stash The Cash led; the map had Arlington in front.

Man On A Mission won at 2.10 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Arlington

Prominent · 3

Stash The CashNad Alshiba SnowMarcus

Midfield · 2

FumbleinthejungleBeneficiary

Hold Up · 3

InvitorioMan On A MissionThe Carligation

Arlington leads this field as the only genuine front-runner, having won three times at this course and distance when allowed to dominate early. Behind him, a cluster of prominent racers including Stash The Cash, Nad Alshiba Snow, and Marcus will track the pace, while the hold-up horses Man On A Mission and Invitorio find themselves with limited early speed to aim at. With Arlington likely uncontested early, he can dictate fractions and kick clear, but if he weakens late the prominent trackers get first run at him before the closers can wind up. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners who can sit close enough to Arlington to strike when he tires, as they'll get first bite before any hold-up horses can mount their challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Arlington Wire-To-Wire Win

45% probability

If Arlington gets an uncontested lead and maintains stamina over this sharp 5f trip.

His three course wins came from the front and he can dictate comfortable fractions without pressure, kicking clear in the final furlong. The hold-up horses have insufficient early pace to aim at and the prominent runners may wait too long to challenge.

ArlingtonStash The CashNad Alshiba SnowMarcus

Prominent Tracker Strikes

35% probability

If the prominent runners sit close enough to Arlington to pounce when he weakens in the final 100 yards.

Stash The Cash or Nad Alshiba Snow can track Arlington's every move and have the tactical speed to strike first when he begins to tire. They get first run before any hold-up horses can organize their challenges from the back.

Stash The CashNad Alshiba SnowArlingtonMarcus

Late Closer Sweeps Up

15% probability

If Arlington sets too strong a pace early and the prominent runners also go too hard tracking him.

Man On A Mission or Invitorio can pick up the pieces as the pace collapses, with their hold-up style perfectly suited to capitalize on a hot pace scenario. The front-runners and prominent racers pay for their earlier exertions.

Man On A MissionInvitorioStash The CashArlington

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

5% probability

If the pace completely falls apart and the main contenders cancel each other out through tactical errors.

Marcus or Beneficiary can slip through as the principals get involved in pace battles or tactical mistakes. A messy race where positioning goes wrong for the favorites opens the door for a surprise.

MarcusBeneficiaryNad Alshiba SnowMan On A Mission

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Arlington's jumping ability from the stalls will be crucial as any slow start hands initiative to the prominent runners behind

WATCH

Man On A Mission and Invitorio may struggle to get into contention if Arlington sets modest fractions and the pace doesn't develop

NOTE

Stash The Cash's 76-day absence could tell late if this becomes a truly-run race, despite his consistent course form

WATCH

The Carligation's 698-day layoff makes him a complete unknown quantity after such an extended absence

NOTE

Connor Beasley's tactics on Marcus will be key given his tendency to race prominently but needing to overcome the long break

3:30 — Book The Bistro In Sherwood Restaurant Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Standard · NOV · 9 runners

Lead contested: Shes Got A Brother v Queen SanaHISTORIC

How it ran

Shes Got A Brother led, as the map showed.

Shes Got A Brother won at 1.83 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Shes Got A BrotherQueen Sana

Prominent · 2

Dance Of AngelsDolo's Star

Midfield · 2

Reigning QueenLavender Bloom

Hold Up · 3

Society KissMagic Lady MaeGwen Tennyson

Shes Got A Brother and Queen Sana are both confirmed front runners who will clash from the start, creating an honest early gallop over this sharp 5f trip. Dance Of Angels and Dolo's Star will sit prominent to track the leaders, while the hold-up horses Society Kiss, Gwen Tennyson, and Magic Lady Mae face a disadvantage if the pace is too strong early. The dual front-runner setup should create a solid tempo that will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the final furlong. This race shape favours prominent runners who can track the pace without getting involved in the early battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Dual pace collapse

45% probability

If both Shes Got A Brother and Queen Sana engage in a speed duel from the start

The early leaders will burn each other up over this minimum trip, allowing the prominent trackers to strike late. Dance Of Angels can capitalize from her ideal stalking position while Society Kiss may get a perfect late run.

Dance Of AngelsSociety KissDolo's StarMagic Lady Mae

Shes Got A Brother dominates

30% probability

If Shes Got A Brother can establish a clear lead without serious pressure from Queen Sana

The recent winner will control the tempo and kick clear in the final furlong, with Queen Sana battling on for second. Dance Of Angels will need to improve significantly to bridge the gap from her tracking position.

Shes Got A BrotherQueen SanaDance Of AngelsDolo's Star

Lightly raced surprises

15% probability

If either Lavender Bloom or Reigning Queen show significant improvement from their debuts

The newcomers from top connections could have been working exceptionally well at home and spring a surprise. Their lack of exposed form makes them dangerous if showing up with fitness and ability advantages.

Lavender BloomReigning QueenSociety KissDance Of Angels

Queen Sana takes control

10% probability

If Queen Sana can dictate terms from the front while Shes Got A Brother settles behind

The experienced leader will use her course experience to control the pace and find enough to hold off the challengers. Her consistent placed efforts suggest she's ready to break her maiden.

Queen SanaDance Of AngelsSociety KissShes Got A Brother

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Shes Got A Brother could dominate if allowed uncontested early lead given recent winning form

WATCH

Queen Sana may set unsustainable fractions if pressured early by Shes Got A Brother over minimum trip

NOTE

Market moves for Lavender Bloom or Reigning Queen could signal strong debuts from quality connections

WATCH

Society Kiss faces significant fitness test after 314-day layoff despite previous course success

NOTE

Dance Of Angels' 208-day break requires monitoring for sharpness after lengthy absence

4:05 — Come Racing For Free 18th June Handicap

1m4f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Lednikov to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Artavian led; the map had Lednikov in front.

Arth's Gold won at 6.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lednikov

Prominent · 3

ArtavianElectric BassNight Bear

Midfield · 3

Arth's GoldTuperoJack Andrea

Hold Up · 3

ShaffronSpec Of LightEagles Whistle

Lednikov is the sole confirmed front runner and will set an uncontested lead from the gates, allowing him to dictate a comfortable gallop through the early stages. The prominent runners Night Bear, Artavian, and Electric Bass will settle just behind but lack the pace to apply serious pressure, while the bulk of the field including Jack Andrea, Arth's Gold, Spec Of Light, Eagles Whistle, Tupero and Shaffron are confirmed hold-up horses who will track towards the rear. With no pace pressure on Lednikov and a large contingent of closers needing to make up ground, the race will develop into a sprint finish where the leader gets first run but faces a wall of challengers. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the leader without getting too far back, as they'll have positional advantage over the hold-up brigade while avoiding reliance on an unproven front runner's stamina.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lednikov Leads Throughout

45% probability

If Lednikov's stamina holds and he maintains his kick from the front.

The veteran gets an uncontested lead and has enough left to repel late challenges, benefiting horses who can get closest to him early. Prominent runners get the best of the remainder by avoiding traffic issues that will plague the hold-up horses.

LednikovNight BearArtavianElectric Bass

Hold-Up Horse Swoop

35% probability

If the pace becomes unsustainable or Lednikov weakens markedly in the final furlong.

Jack Andrea and Arth's Gold have the strongest late kick and class to reel in a weakening leader, with their recent C&D form giving them the edge. The strong pace collapse allows closers to unleash devastating finishing speed.

Jack AndreaArth's GoldEagles WhistleTupero

Prominent Runner Strikes

15% probability

If Night Bear or Artavian can position perfectly and avoid the traffic that catches hold-up horses.

One of the prominent runners gets the perfect stalking position and has enough pace to go by Lednikov while staying clear of the closing pack. They benefit from being close enough to strike but not relying on front-running stamina.

Night BearArtavianElectric BassSpec Of Light

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If Lednikov stops dramatically and creates a messy sprint finish with multiple horses challenging simultaneously.

The race becomes a cavalry charge where any horse with a clear passage can win, favoring those with the strongest recent form regardless of running style. Traffic and luck become decisive factors in a blanket finish.

Eagles WhistleTuperoJack AndreaSpec Of Light

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Lednikov gets loose on the lead early as he could steal the race with an uncontested advantage

WATCH

Monitor the pace through halfway as any increase in tempo will seriously compromise Lednikov's stamina reserves

NOTE

Check how quickly Night Bear and Artavian can secure their prominent positions as traffic could force them further back

WATCH

Watch for Jack Andrea getting boxed in during the crucial closing stages given his hold-up style and the lack of early pace

NOTE

Observe if any of the returning horses (Artavian, Electric Bass, Shaffron) show signs of needed fitness in the preliminaries

4:35 — Conference & Events At Southwell Racecourse Handicap

2m½f · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Charlie Darling likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Different Drum led; the map had Charlie Darling in front.

Charlie Darling won at 7.00 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Charlie Darling

Prominent · 2

FashionelleCold Henry

Midfield · 5

ColinskiOnlyriversrunfreeCrystal GuardRegal GloryApache Eagle

Hold Up · 3

Payment PlanSullivan BayDifferent Drum

Charlie Darling will set the pace from the front with minimal pressure, as most of this field are hold-up horses who prefer to come from behind. Fashionelle and Cold Henry may sit handy in second and third, but neither is keen to force the issue early. This creates a tactical nightmare for the eight hold-up horses including Payment Plan, Sullivan Bay, and Different Drum who will be bunched together seeking racing room in the straight. The sustainable early fractions and lack of pace pressure clearly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions without effort.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

55% probability

If Charlie Darling gets an uncontested lead and maintains his recent form improvement.

The lack of early pace allows him to dictate terms completely, leaving the hold-up brigade with too much ground to make up when the sprint develops. His third place over course and distance last time shows he handles these conditions perfectly.

Charlie DarlingFashionelleCold HenryApache Eagle

Prominent Tracker Strikes

25% probability

If Fashionelle or Cold Henry can sit close enough to Charlie Darling without using energy.

They get first run on the leader while the hold-up horses are still trying to get organized and find clear racing room in the straight. The tactical advantage of an early position proves decisive in a slowly-run race.

FashionelleCold HenryCharlie DarlingApache Eagle

Hold-Up Horse Finds Gap

15% probability

If the pace quickens unexpectedly or traffic opens up perfectly for one of the back markers.

Sullivan Bay or Payment Plan gets the dream run through a gap when it matters most, allowing their superior finishing kick to overcome the positional disadvantage. Their class edge shows when getting clear racing room.

Sullivan BayPayment PlanApache EagleRegal Glory

Outsider Benefits From Chaos

5% probability

If the race develops into a messy sprint with multiple horses struggling for racing room.

Apache Eagle or Regal Glory, drawn better or getting lucky in running, capitalizes when the fancied runners encounter trouble in a bunched finish. Form horses get hampered while an outsider sneaks through.

Apache EagleRegal GloryDifferent DrumCrystal Guard

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Charlie Darling must be backed heavily as the only front-runner in a field of hold-up horses creates massive tactical advantage

WATCH

Watch the early pace development carefully - if Fashionelle or Cold Henry press Charlie Darling early it changes everything

NOTE

Payment Plan's market support will indicate connections' confidence after his poor effort behind Charlie Darling last time

WATCH

Apache Eagle carrying 1lb overweight with inexperienced 5lb claimer in crucial tactical race requiring mature judgment

NOTE

Sullivan Bay's jumping between codes continues - his all-weather form much stronger than recent hurdles efforts suggest

5:10 — Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 10 runners

Pinjarra likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Melissa Honey and Pinjarra led, as the map showed.

Mount Ruapehu won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pinjarra

Prominent · 3

QueensmaiteAngel Of EnglandTommytwohoots

Midfield · 3

Melissa HoneyDr AliEast Tyrone

Hold Up · 3

Mount RuapehuMu Mu LandSouth Shore

Pinjarra will likely take the early lead with Angel Of England, Queensmaite and Tommytwohoots showing prominent tendencies, but none are confirmed speed horses who must lead. This creates a moderate pace scenario where Pinjarra can dictate terms without serious pressure through the early fractions. The majority field comprises hold-up horses (Mu Mu Land, Mount Ruapehu, South Shore, Dr Ali, East Tyrone, Melissa Honey) who will look to time their runs from off the pace. This pace dynamic clearly favors the prominent runners and those with tactical speed who can position close to the pace and kick, rather than the large contingent of hold-up horses who may find themselves with too much to do.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pinjarra Controls Tempo

65% probability

If Pinjarra gets an uncontested lead with the prominent horses settling just behind

The pace will be steady but honest, allowing those tracking the leaders to have first run while the hold-up brigade struggle to make up ground from too far back. This suits horses who can race handy and have a change of gear.

PinjarraMount RuapehuAngel Of EnglandDr Ali

Early Speed Battle

20% probability

If Angel Of England or Queensmaite challenge Pinjarra early for the lead

The increased early pace will set up a stronger finish, bringing more horses into contention and potentially suiting the better hold-up horses. The early leaders may pay for their exertions late.

Dr AliEast TyroneMount RuapehuTommytwohoots

Slow Start Scramble

10% probability

If none of the prominent horses show early speed and they settle too far back

The pace becomes crawling with no genuine leader, turning it into a sprint from the 2f pole. This favors horses with the best turn of foot regardless of official rating.

Mount RuapehuDr AliEast TyroneAngel Of England

Late Charge Successful

5% probability

If the pace is genuinely strong throughout and the leaders come back significantly

The hold-up horses get their optimal scenario with plenty of pace to aim at and weakening leaders to pick up. Closing sectionals become crucial.

Melissa HoneySouth ShoreMu Mu LandEast Tyrone

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pinjarra could get too easy a lead if the prominent horses settle further back than expected

WATCH

Mount Ruapehu's hold-up style may struggle if the pace is insufficient to bring him into contention

NOTE

Dr Ali's 35-day break could be significant given his excellent course record when fresh

WATCH

Angel Of England needs to bounce back from two poor runs over 7f but returns to preferred 6f trip

NOTE

East Tyrone carries bottom weight but trainer Philip Kirby has poor recent strike rate

5:42 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Receipt v ShamacidHISTORIC

How it ran

Dapper Gee Gee led; the map had Receipt and Shamacid in front.

Receipt won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

ReceiptShamacid

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 3

Phoenix Of DreamsDapper Gee GeeCill Mocheallog

Hold Up · 2

StoneywellWish This

Receipt and Shamacid will contest the early lead, with both showing confirmed front-running tendencies that should create an honest gallop from the start. The sustained pace battle between these two leaders will likely soften them up for the closers, particularly over this 7f trip where tactical speed becomes crucial. With five hold-up horses in the field including Phoenix Of Dreams, Wish This, Dapper Gee Gee, Cill Mocheallog, and Stoneywell, the weight of numbers favours those racing from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can capitalise on the early pace battle and deliver late challenges.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace battle between Receipt and Shamacid is genuinely strong throughout the first 5f

The front pair will tie up in the final furlong, allowing the hold-up brigade to sweep past with Phoenix Of Dreams and Cill Mocheallog best placed to benefit from their proven finishing kicks. Both have shown strong late pace and the setup plays perfectly to their strengths.

Phoenix Of DreamsCill MocheallogDapper Gee GeeWish This

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If one of Receipt or Shamacid can establish a clear early advantage without maximum pressure

The winner gets first run on the field and maintains enough in reserve to repel late challenges, with Receipt's recent form edge giving him the better chance of lasting home. The hold-up horses find one too good despite their tactical advantage.

ReceiptShamacidPhoenix Of DreamsCill Mocheallog

Prominent Runner Benefits

15% probability

If the early leaders go too fast and the hold-up horses are caught too far back

A horse able to track the pace without being part of the early battle gets the perfect run, with the leaders stopping and closers needing more time. This tactical position proves optimal in a moderately-run race with a sprint finish.

Wish ThisDapper Gee GeePhoenix Of DreamsReceipt

Pace Collapses Completely

5% probability

If both Receipt and Shamacid are unusually restrained early or one takes a clear uncontested lead

The race becomes a tactical crawl that turns into a sprint where raw speed matters most, negating the hold-up horses' usual advantage. Cill Mocheallog's high TopSpeed rating could prove decisive in this scenario.

Cill MocheallogShamacidReceiptPhoenix Of Dreams

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Receipt and Shamacid both going forward early - if they engage in a genuine speed duel the pace will be strong throughout.

WATCH

Phoenix Of Dreams has faded when prominent before so needs to be held up despite his recent good form.

WATCH

Cill Mocheallog returning from 42-day break with new tongue-tie suggests breathing issues may have been a problem.

NOTE

Dapper Gee Gee dropping back to 7f after struggling over 8f last time and has won fresh before.

NOTE

Stoneywell carrying top weight and making his first appearance for new trainer connections after a 38-day break.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 28 April 2026.

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