Archive›Southwell (AW) · 29 April 2026

Southwell (AW)

29 April 2026 · 8 races

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2:20 — Summer Social Events At Southwell Racecourse Handicap

2m½f · Standard · HCAP · 5 runners

Clansman to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Clansman led, as the map showed.

Clansman won at 9.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Clansman

Prominent · 1

Volcanic Rock

Midfield · 1

Dollar's Dream

Hold Up · 2

BetelgeuseWestlain

Clansman will dictate from the front as the sole confirmed leader, with Volcanic Rock likely to settle prominently behind him. The middle distance and standard going conditions should allow Clansman to set a manageable tempo without early pressure. Betelgeuse, Westlain and Dollar's Dream will all be held up in the small field, creating a tactical race where the pace-setter gets first run but faces a wall of hold-up horses with finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can time their challenge, as Clansman will be a sitting duck if his stamina cracks in the final furlong.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Pounce

45% probability

If the pace is steady and Clansman weakens in the final 2f

The patient tactics of Betelgeuse and Dollar's Dream pay dividends as they sweep past a tiring leader. Their superior finishing kicks and fresh legs prove decisive in a sprint finish.

BetelgeuseDollar's DreamWestlainClansman

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If Clansman maintains his stamina and the hold-up horses leave it too late

The leader's honest galloping and race fitness keeps him ahead of late challengers who find the sustained pace has taken its toll. His early advantage proves insurmountable despite the finishing efforts behind.

ClansmanVolcanic RockDollar's DreamBetelgeuse

Prominent Horse Strikes

20% probability

If Volcanic Rock can bridge the gap between leader and hold-up horses perfectly

The Godolphin runner gets the best of both worlds by tracking Clansman closely then having enough left to repel the late challenges. His prominent position allows him to kick clear when the others are still making ground.

Volcanic RockClansmanBetelgeuseDollar's Dream

Westlain Springs Surprise

10% probability

If the returning hurdler shows unexpected flat speed and times his run perfectly

His fresh legs from the 70-day break and hurdles fitness give him a different dimension to his finish. The lack of recent flat form becomes an advantage as he catches the others napping.

WestlainDollar's DreamBetelgeuseVolcanic Rock

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Betelgeuse must be watched closely for market confidence given his excellent recent course form and perfect hold-up style

WATCH

Clansman's stamina over this extended trip needs monitoring as his recent efforts have been shorter

NOTE

Westlain's fitness levels after 70 days off flat racing despite hurdles wins in between

WATCH

Dollar's Dream's ability to overcome trainer Philip Kirby's poor recent form figures of 0/12

NOTE

Volcanic Rock's response to step back up in distance after recent shorter efforts

2:55 — Book The Bistro In Sherwood Restaurant EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

5f · Standard · CLS4 · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

3:30 — Come Racing For Free 18th June Handicap

1m3f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Magician Of Riga likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Extraterrestrial and Flash Kozo led; the map had Magician Of Riga in front.

Magician Of Riga won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Magician Of Riga

Prominent · 2

ExtraterrestrialAl's River

Midfield · 2

SingardaGemical

Hold Up · 2

Flash KozoWave Power

Magician Of Riga is the sole confirmed pace-setter and will face minimal early pressure from Al's River and Extraterrestrial who prefer prominent positions but won't challenge for the lead. This creates a controlled tempo scenario where the front-runner can dictate fractions without being harassed through the early and middle stages. The race sets up perfectly for hold-up horses like Flash Kozo, Singarda, and Wave Power to close strongly in the final 2-3 furlongs. This pace shape heavily favours closers who can benefit from the honest but uncontested gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustainable Pace Closing Kick

55% probability

If Magician Of Riga leads uncontested and sets moderate fractions

The pace allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and mount telling late challenges over this stamina-testing trip. Flash Kozo and Singarda are ideally positioned to benefit from the tactical setup.

Flash KozoSingardaWave PowerGemical

Front Runner Wire-to-Wire

25% probability

If Magician Of Riga gets soft early sections and kicks clear

Having won over 1m4f last time, he can exploit the lack of pace pressure to build an unassailable lead. The step up in trip plays to his strengths with no sustained early challenge.

Magician Of RigaAl's RiverExtraterrestrialFlash Kozo

Prominent Tracker Pounce

12% probability

If Al's River or Extraterrestrial sit closer and time their move perfectly

One of the prominent runners capitalises on sitting in the slipstream before striking in the final furlong. Al's River showed improvement after gelding and could peak second-up.

Al's RiverExtraterrestrialMagician Of RigaFlash Kozo

Pace Collapses Early

8% probability

If Magician Of Riga goes too slow and gets swamped by closers

The lack of early pressure creates pedestrian fractions that allow every hold-up horse to get competitive. Multiple closers converge simultaneously in a bunch finish.

Wave PowerGemicalSingardaFlash Kozo

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Magician Of Riga getting uncontested lead - if he settles well early he becomes very hard to peg back

WATCH

Flash Kozo's fitness after 39-day layoff - any market support would be significant on handicap debut

WATCH

Al's River and Extraterrestrial settling in behind rather than pressuring the pace setter early

NOTE

Gemical and Wave Power showing any signs of zip despite long absences - both need to prove fitness

NOTE

Pace through opening half-mile - if too slow it plays into hands of every closer in the field

4:05 — Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Fillies' Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Donna Nook likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Special Breeze led; the map had Donna Nook in front.

Alessia Fernanda won at 15.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Donna Nook

Prominent · 2

Alessia FernandaCosi Bear

Midfield · 3

Dream IllusionElectric AvenueSpecial Breeze

Hold Up · 3

Wondrous LightWelljudgedBrave Byreflection

Donna Nook will set a sustainable early pace from the front with no obvious speed rivals to challenge her early. The prominent runners Alessia Fernanda and Cosi Bear will track close behind, while the large hold-up contingent of Welljudged, Brave Byreflection, Electric Avenue, Dream Illusion, Wondrous Light and Special Breeze will be fighting for racing room in the closing stages. With only one natural front-runner in a small field, this creates an honest gallop that builds gradually rather than a sprint finish. This pace scenario clearly favours front-running and prominent racing styles who can secure good positions and avoid traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Honest Pace Holds

65% probability

If Donna Nook maintains her lead without being pressed early and the pace stays true throughout.

The lack of early speed pressure allows the front-runners to dictate terms while the large hold-up brigade gets bunched up approaching the final furlong. Front-runners and prominent racers hold their advantage as the closers run out of time and room.

Donna NookWondrous LightAlessia FernandaDream Illusion

Late Traffic Problems

20% probability

If the hold-up horses struggle for clear runs in the straight due to the small field bunching.

Several hold-up runners get squeezed for room as they all move at once, allowing the early positioned horses to maintain their advantage. The pace-setters capitalize on the trouble behind them.

Donna NookCosi BearAlessia FernandaElectric Avenue

Strong Closer Surge

12% probability

If one of the better hold-up horses finds a clear passage and the pace becomes truly testing late.

The honest gallop sets up perfectly for a talented closer to sweep past tired leaders in the final 100 yards. Quality hold-up runners with tactical speed prove too strong.

Wondrous LightDream IllusionWelljudgedBrave Byreflection

Pace Collapse

3% probability

If Donna Nook goes too slow early and the race becomes a sprint from the 3f pole.

The lack of early pressure creates a crawling pace that turns into a cavalry charge, suiting horses with a turn of foot regardless of preferred style. The race becomes a lottery in a bunched finish.

Electric AvenueSpecial BreezeBrave ByreflectionCosi Bear

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Donna Nook could get an uncontested lead if no prominent runners press her early, making her very dangerous

WATCH

Traffic problems likely in straight as seven hold-up runners converge simultaneously in small field

NOTE

Wondrous Light brings recent winning form but turf to all-weather switch after Beverley success needs monitoring

WATCH

Alessia Fernanda returns from longest layoff in field after wind surgery, fitness versus class question

NOTE

Dream Illusion has best recent course form with two wins here but needs pace pressure to be effective

4:40 — Dog Friendly Raceday Tues 2nd June Handicap (Div I)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Kondratiev Wave likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Spotlight Kid and Manton Road led; the map had Kondratiev Wave in front.

Borderline Madness won at 4.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kondratiev Wave

Prominent · 3

Shaws PhoenixPink SocksKessaar Power

Midfield · 4

StarshotRing Of GoldVecchioMavetheforcebewivu

Hold Up · 3

Borderline MadnessThe Spotlight KidManton Road

Kondratiev Wave and Kessaar Power will lead early, with Shaws Phoenix and Pink Socks tracking in prominent positions. The pace should be sustainable rather than fierce given only one confirmed front runner in Kondratiev Wave, though Kessaar Power from stall 1 may press if keen. This moderate gallop will allow the field to stay in touch through the middle sections before quickening from 3f out. The steady pace and flat 1m trip strongly favours hold-up horses who can finish strongly, particularly those with proven tactical speed like The Spotlight Kid, Ring Of Gold and Borderline Madness.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold Up Horses Prevail

60% probability

If the pace stays moderate as expected with Kondratiev Wave controlling from the front

The patient hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks in the final 2f when the early pace-setters tire. This scenario perfectly suits closers with tactical speed who thrive when getting a tow into the race.

The Spotlight KidRing Of GoldBorderline MadnessStarshot

Prominent Trackers Strike

25% probability

If Pink Socks or Shaws Phoenix travel well in behind the leaders and kick approaching 2f out

The prominently-raced horses get first run on the field before the hold-up brigade can organize their challenges. Their early position advantage proves decisive as they find enough in the closing stages.

Pink SocksKondratiev WaveShaws PhoenixKessaar Power

Strong Pace Develops

10% probability

If Kessaar Power from stall 1 presses Kondratiev Wave and creates a genuine test early

The sustained gallop stretches the field and finds out the stamina reserves, with only the most genuine stayers able to respond to pressure. This tough pace eliminates the less hardy types.

Ring Of GoldKondratiev WaveThe Spotlight KidBorderline Madness

Outsider Ambush

5% probability

If the market principles fail to fire and an unfancied runner produces career-best form

A surprise package from the back markers capitalizes on a perfectly run race to spring a shock result. The unexpected winner benefits from the focus being on the fancied runners.

StarshotManton RoadVecchioMavetheforcebewivu

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Kondratiev Wave may not see out the 1m trip having shown best recent form over 7f and could stop quickly if pressed

WATCH

Shaws Phoenix faces fitness concerns on 248-day return from wind surgery and may need this run to come fully right

NOTE

Kessaar Power from stall 1 could set faster fractions than expected if he breaks keenly under Silvestre De Sousa

WATCH

The Spotlight Kid and Borderline Madness both returning from breaks may lack peak race fitness despite their strong profiles

NOTE

Ring Of Gold pairs exceptionally well with Billy Garritty and could outrun odds if getting his favoured strong pace

5:15 — Dog Friendly Raceday Tues 2nd June Handicap (Div II)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 11 runners

Our Misty Blue to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Our Misty Blue led, as the map showed.

Timely Affair won at 2.10 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Our Misty Blue

Prominent · 3

Ribston PippinHereticBack From Dubai

Midfield · 4

Unknown JourneyWath CourtPop FavoriteHaaf A Diamond

Hold Up · 3

Timely AffairSpirit Of BowlandCezarro

Our Misty Blue is the sole confirmed pace-setter but carries warning flags for fading in the finish, suggesting he may not sustain his early lead. With only one horse committed to making the running, several prominent racers like Heretic, Ribston Pippin and Back From Dubai will likely fill the forward positions, creating a moderate early gallop rather than fierce pressure. The large contingent of hold-up horses including Timely Affair, Spirit Of Bowland, Cezarro and Unknown Journey will be relying on the pace collapsing in the final furlong. This tactical setup clearly favours prominent racers who can track the lone leader without being taken out of their comfort zone.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

45% probability

If Our Misty Blue sets a steady tempo without burning out completely

The moderate pace allows prominent runners to stay in touch and kick clear when the hold-up brigade get going too late. Heretic and Ribston Pippin benefit from their forward positions to strike in the final quarter-mile.

HereticRibston PippinBack From DubaiTimely Affair

Hold-Up Horses Strike

30% probability

If Our Misty Blue fades dramatically in the final two furlongs

The collapsing pace creates a sprint finish where the closers can unleash their kicks from off the pace. Timely Affair and Spirit Of Bowland have the tactical speed to capitalize when the race falls apart.

Timely AffairSpirit Of BowlandCezarroUnknown Journey

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If Our Misty Blue handles the distance better than his recent fade suggests

The lack of early pressure allows him to dictate terms and potentially hold on if his stamina reserves prove adequate. Back From Dubai could emerge from the chasing pack to challenge but not catch.

Our Misty BlueBack From DubaiHereticTimely Affair

Longshot Surprise

10% probability

If the main contenders fail to handle the tactical puzzle or meet traffic problems

The race becomes messy with several runners underperforming, allowing an outsider to sneak through. Haaf A Diamond showed promise in cheekpieces last time and could benefit from a muddling pace.

Haaf A DiamondPop FavoriteRibston PippinSpirit Of Bowland

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Our Misty Blue could set unsustainable fractions despite being the lone leader, given his tendency to fade in the finish

WATCH

Timely Affair needs the front runners to come back to him significantly in the final furlong to be effective

NOTE

Heretic could benefit most from the tactical setup as a prominent runner returning to his preferred 1m distance

WATCH

Back From Dubai may not get the strong pace he needs to showcase his finishing kick from a forward position

NOTE

Spirit Of Bowland has proven C&D form but relies heavily on the race developing into a sprint finish

5:45 — Conference & Events At Southwell Racecourse Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6f · Standard · NOV · 10 runners

Gold Star Gazing likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hugh led; the map had Gold Star Gazing in front.

Wezzeer won at 1.67 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gold Star Gazing

Prominent · 3

HughLikeadyinwaspAgric Ranger

Midfield · 3

Sugar Bon BonElite ApproachPercy's Star

Hold Up · 3

WezzeerForest PhoenixThe Cyprus Pearl

Gold Star Gazing is the only confirmed front runner with a prominent style, likely to get an uncontested lead in this 6f novice event. With most of the field showing hold-up or unknown styles, including the two unexposed runners Elite Approach and Sugar Bon Bon, there's minimal early pace pressure. Gold Star Gazing can dictate fractions from the front while prominent runners Hugh and Likeadyinwasp track behind. This setup strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can position close to the pace early, as the lack of genuine speed will create a tactical disadvantage for hold-up horses trying to close from too far back over the minimum trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Gold Star Gazing gets a soft lead without early pressure

The lack of pace opposition allows him to control the race and kick clear in the final furlong, while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from too far back over 6f. His previous RPR of 80 and proven form at this trip makes him hard to peg back.

Gold Star GazingHughElite ApproachSugar Bon Bon

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Hugh or another prominent runner can sit close enough to Gold Star Gazing's shoulder

The tracker gets first run on the leader and benefits from the slow early pace by having enough left to outkick Gold Star Gazing in the final 100 yards. Hugh showed promise on debut and suits this tactical scenario perfectly.

HughGold Star GazingElite ApproachSugar Bon Bon

Unexposed Runner Emerges

15% probability

If Elite Approach or Sugar Bon Bon shows significant improvement from their unknown baselines

One of the newcomers to this yard has been working well at home and benefits from the moderate early pace to deliver a surprise performance. Their unknown style could be more prominent than catalogued, giving them tactical advantage.

Elite ApproachSugar Bon BonGold Star GazingHugh

Hold-Up Horse Rallies

10% probability

If Wezzeer or Forest Phoenix gets the perfect ride and a strong pace collapse occurs

The early pace goes even slower than expected, allowing a hold-up horse to time their run perfectly and catch the leaders napping in the final 50 yards. This requires everything to fall right given the trip and likely race shape.

WezzeerForest PhoenixGold Star GazingHugh

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Gold Star Gazing getting any early pressure from Hugh or Likeadyinwasp would completely change the pace dynamics

WATCH

Elite Approach or Sugar Bon Bon showing more prominent early positioning than their unknown styles suggest

WATCH

Wezzeer or Forest Phoenix being held up too far back given the likely slow early pace over 6f

NOTE

Hugh's positioning in the first two furlongs will indicate if he can challenge Gold Star Gazing tactically

NOTE

Any market moves on the two completely unexposed runners Elite Approach and Sugar Bon Bon

6:15 — Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners

Shazani likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Belsito led; the map had Shazani in front.

Tabby won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Shazani

Prominent · 2

TabbyBelsito

Midfield · 3

Neyva's AngelDicko The LegendFan Mail

Hold Up · 2

ThursoGlamour Show

Shazani provides the only confirmed front-running presence and will dictate terms from the start, likely setting sustainable fractions without early pressure. Tabby and Belsito may track prominently behind Shazani, but the majority of this field comprises hold-up horses including Fan Mail, Glamour Show, Dicko The Legend, Thurso, and Neyva's Angel. With minimal early pace pressure, Shazani can control the tempo and kick clear in the straight. This tactical setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid the late traffic problems that will engulf the crowded pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Shazani Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Shazani gets an easy lead and dictates moderate fractions without early pressure

Shazani can kick clear turning for home while the hold-up horses get caught in traffic behind the slow pace. The lack of early speed allows front-runners to dominate while closers struggle to make up ground.

ShazaniTabbyBelsitoNeyva's Angel

Late Traffic Chaos

30% probability

If the hold-up horses get bunched up behind the modest early pace

Multiple hold-up horses will be looking for racing room simultaneously in the straight, creating a messy finish. Those who get the clearest run or find gaps earliest will prevail over those trapped behind horses.

Neyva's AngelFan MailDicko The LegendGlamour Show

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Tabby or Belsito can track Shazani and time their challenge perfectly

The prominent horses can follow Shazani's pace-setting before striking in the final furlong when the leader weakens. Their tactical position gives them first jump on the hold-up brigade.

TabbyBelsitoShazaniFan Mail

Shazani Wire-to-Wire

10% probability

If Shazani gets completely uncontested fractions and maintains stamina

With no pace pressure whatsoever, Shazani can dictate crawling splits before quickening when it matters. The hold-up horses will have too much ground to make up from the steady tempo.

ShazaniDicko The LegendTabbyThurso

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Shazani getting uncontested lead - if no horse goes with him early, he'll dictate perfect fractions for front-runners

WATCH

Watch the hold-up horses Fan Mail, Glamour Show, and Dicko The Legend getting bunched up behind the modest pace

NOTE

Watch Tabby's fitness on quick turnaround after impressive stable debut - any signs of fatigue will be telling

WATCH

Watch Neyva's Angel's starting position - his typical slow breaks could be fatal if trapped behind crawling pace

NOTE

Watch for any prominent horse willing to pressure Shazani early - could change entire complexion of race

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 29 April 2026.

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