Archive›Southwell (AW) · 30 April 2026

Southwell (AW)

30 April 2026 · 7 races

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5:17 — Download The At The Races App Amateur Jockeys' Handicap

1m6f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

Lawmans Blis likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Fiftyshadesaresdev led; the map had Lawmans Blis in front.

Bronte Beach won at 6.00 — was held up, as the map had it.

2 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lawmans Blis

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 7

ParikarmaHiccupsNymphaeaFiftyshadesaresdevStar Of JupiterRegal GloryPrince Abu

Hold Up · 4

CogitalBronte BeachAngelardoYakhabar

Lawmans Blis is the only confirmed front runner in this 12-runner field, meaning he can set an uncontested lead and dictate a steady tempo over the 1m6f trip. With all other runners showing hold-up tendencies, the pace is likely to be moderate through the early stages before quickening from the 3f pole. The lack of pace pressure will allow the leaders to conserve energy for the finish, creating a tactical race where positioning and timing become crucial. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers and those with tactical speed who can track the pace, as the hold-up horses will face a wall of horses when making their moves.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Wins

45% probability

If Lawmans Blis gets an easy lead and stays on strongly

The front runner faces no early pressure and can quicken when it matters, with the field spread out behind unable to mount a unified challenge. Hold-up horses struggle to find racing room in the straight as the pace becomes solid rather than stop-start.

Lawmans BlisHiccupsYakhabarAngelardo

Late Charge Succeeds

30% probability

If the pace becomes too steady and kick comes late

The moderate early tempo sets up a cavalry charge from the back, with several hold-up horses timing their runs perfectly. Fresh legs prevail over those who tracked the pace, especially if Lawmans Blis weakens in the final furlong.

YakhabarAngelardoStar Of JupiterCogital

Tactical Speed Prevails

15% probability

If jockeys position just behind the leader early

Horses sitting in second or third can track Lawmans Blis without doing the donkey work, then strike with a well-timed challenge. The tactical advantage of racing handy without leading proves decisive as pure hold-up horses are caught flat-footed.

HiccupsNymphaeaFiftyshadesaresdevBronte Beach

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Lawmans Blis goes too fast early or stops suddenly

The leader either sets unsustainable fractions or hits the wall dramatically, creating a messy finish where the best stayer emerges. Horses with recent form at the trip or proven stamina reserves benefit from the attritional finish.

Star Of JupiterCogitalParikarmaPrince Abu

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lawmans Blis gets an uncontested lead - with no other pace horses this becomes a major tactical advantage

WATCH

Yakhabar's recent emphatic course win in amateur company could translate to this similar event

NOTE

Hiccups returning after 212 days for new trainer but showed solid form at the trip last season

WATCH

The lack of early pace could create a messy finish with 11 hold-up horses all trying to time runs

NOTE

Amateur jockey allowances could prove decisive in a tight finish with several 5lb claimers riding

5:52 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap

1m3f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners

The Bay Warrior likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

The Bay Warrior and Roman Secret led, as the map showed.

Cloudside Rock won at 10.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Bay Warrior

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 5

SisterandbrotherRoman SecretCloudside RockRecobellaArranmore

Hold Up · 2

Le PelerinIt's A Love Thing

The Bay Warrior will likely take the field along from the front with his prominent style, creating a measured tempo without serious early pressure in this small field. Roman Secret's recent front-running win suggests she could press if needed, but most others prefer to settle behind. The steady gallop will allow the hold-up horses to get into contention turning for home, with the final furlong becoming crucial. This controlled pace scenario strongly favours the patient hold-up brigade who can time their runs from off the speed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prevail

55% probability

If The Bay Warrior sets an even tempo without serious pressure early

The patient tactics of the hold-up runners will prove superior as they get first run on the leaders in the straight. Roman Secret, Cloudside Rock and Arranmore can all produce their best efforts when allowed to come from behind in these conditions.

Roman SecretCloudside RockArranmoreSisterandbrother

Front End Advantage

25% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely testing from the outset with multiple horses going forward

The Bay Warrior's stamina and tactical speed will prove decisive if he can dictate terms without folding. Roman Secret could benefit if she can track the leader and pounce late, using her recent winning momentum.

The Bay WarriorRoman SecretLe PelerinIt's A Love Thing

Late Surge Triumph

12% probability

If the pace is very slow early and becomes a sprint finish over the final 2f

Horses with the best turn of foot regardless of running style will dominate in a bunched finish. Cloudside Rock's class could shine through despite his layoff, while Sisterandbrother has shown ability in similar tactical affairs.

Cloudside RockSisterandbrotherRecobellaRoman Secret

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If The Bay Warrior stops quickly after setting the pace and the field comes to him in a heap

The race will become messy with traffic problems likely, favouring those who can find gaps and accelerate quickly. Any hold-up horse finding clear room could capitalise on the carnage ahead.

Le PelerinArranmoreRecobellaIt's A Love Thing

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

The Bay Warrior could set too strong a pace for his own good with inexperienced apprentice Rose Dawes aboard

WATCH

Roman Secret needs to overcome another wide draw having done so successfully last time at Wolverhampton

WATCH

Cloudside Rock returns after 177 days off which is a significant concern despite his obvious class advantage

NOTE

Sisterandbrother wears cheekpieces again after winning in them but lacks the headgear notation here

NOTE

Arranmore drops 3lb from his recent course win which could make him very competitive at rewarding odds

6:25 — Follow @attheraces On Instagram Restricted Novice Stakes (For horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

1m3f · Standard · NOV · 8 runners

Pure Moon to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Too Farhh Gone led; the map had Pure Moon in front.

Too Farhh Gone won at 13.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pure Moon

Prominent · 1

Too Farhh Gone

Midfield · 4

AlkaiosPicaroAl Za'amaChilli King

Hold Up · 2

HeroicsMoonrunner

Pure Moon will lead uncontested from the start with no other confirmed front-runners in this field. Too Farhh Gone may sit prominently in second but won't pressure the leader early. The lack of pace pressure means Pure Moon can dictate fractions through the first mile before the field bunches up for the final 3f battle. This setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can stay close to the uncontested pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

55% probability

If Pure Moon maintains his recent form and gets easy fractions up front

Pure Moon controls the tempo completely and has enough left to repel late challengers over the final furlong. His two recent seconds show he's ready to break his maiden when getting ideal tactical conditions like these.

Pure MoonToo Farhh GoneAlkaiosHeroics

Late Surge Succeeds

25% probability

If the early pace is too slow and bunches the field for a sprint finish

The hold-up horses get their preferred scenario when Pure Moon crawls early and multiple runners can unleash late runs. Fresh legs from deep prove decisive in the final 2f.

HeroicsAl Za'amaMoonrunnerPure Moon

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Too Farhh Gone can improve on her two placed efforts here and track the leader perfectly

Too Farhh Gone sits second throughout and strikes when Pure Moon begins to weaken inside the final furlong. Her course experience and recent placed form give her the edge in a two-horse battle.

Too Farhh GonePure MoonAlkaiosHeroics

Newcomer Surprises

8% probability

If Alkaios shows significant improvement on debut with stronger breeding than most

The lightly-raced gelding benefits from the tactical setup and Zak Wheatley's claim to outrun his odds. His pedigree suggests this trip will suit better than shorter distances.

AlkaiosPure MoonToo Farhh GoneHeroics

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Pure Moon could win unchallenged if he breaks cleanly and establishes early position without pressure

WATCH

Too Farhh Gone's long absence could leave her short of peak fitness despite course experience

NOTE

Alkaios represents the main unknown factor with his breeding suggesting improvement at this longer trip

WATCH

The pace could collapse completely if Pure Moon goes too slowly and creates a messy sprint finish

NOTE

Several hold-up horses returning from long breaks may need the run more than showing winning form

7:00 — Follow @attheraces On X Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Sunriseontheboyne to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jersey Maverick led; the map had Sunriseontheboyne in front.

Jimmy Speaking won at 2.20 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Sunriseontheboyne

Prominent · 1

Jimmy Speaking

Midfield · 3

State Of MadnessKing Of IthacaJersey Maverick

Hold Up · 2

Commander Of LifePacketofbiscuits

Sunriseontheboyne is the only confirmed front runner in this seven-horse field, giving him an uncontested lead over this 7f trip at Southwell. With Jimmy Speaking likely to sit prominently behind him and the remaining five runners all showing hold-up tendencies, this sets up a sustainable pace scenario with minimal early pressure. The lack of pace competition means Sunriseontheboyne can dictate terms freely, while the hold-up brigade face the challenge of making up ground against a horse who won't be softened up by early battles. This race shape clearly favours front runners and prominent racers who can secure good early positions without interference.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Sunriseontheboyne breaks cleanly and establishes an easy lead without pressure from Jimmy Speaking.

The front runner can control the fractions completely and kick clear when the hold-up horses are still finding their stride in the straight. This tactical advantage proves decisive against horses relying on late runs from unpromising positions.

SunriseontheboyneJimmy SpeakingPacketofbiscuitsCommander Of Life

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Jimmy Speaking sits closer to the pace and can outgun Sunriseontheboyne in the final furlong.

The De Sousa-ridden runner uses his class edge and prominent position to wear down the leader while staying ahead of the late charge. His last win came at this distance and he benefits from the tactical setup.

Jimmy SpeakingSunriseontheboyneKing Of IthacaPacketofbiscuits

Hold-Up Horse Overcomes

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes truly pedestrian allowing time for closers to organize.

One of the talented hold-up performers gets the perfect trip and timing to surge through, with King Of Ithaca's course form or Commander Of Life's recent consistency proving decisive. The lack of early pace creates the exact conditions these horses need.

King Of IthacaCommander Of LifeState Of MadnessPacketofbiscuits

Tactical Collapse

10% probability

If Sunriseontheboyne fails to break or show early pace, creating a muddling start with no clear leader.

The race becomes a messy tactical affair where positioning rather than ability decides the outcome, potentially suiting a horse with tactical speed. Jersey Maverick or Packetofbiscuits could benefit from the scramble.

Jersey MaverickPacketofbiscuitsJimmy SpeakingState Of Madness

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch Sunriseontheboyne's break from the stalls - if he misses the start badly, the entire pace dynamic collapses and chaos ensues.

WATCH

Monitor Jimmy Speaking's early positioning - if De Sousa pushes him up to challenge Sunriseontheboyne early, it creates a completely different tactical race.

NOTE

Check how aggressively the hold-up horses' jockeys ride in the first two furlongs, as any early urgency suggests they fear the lack of pace.

WATCH

Watch for traffic problems in the straight as five hold-up horses try to find racing room simultaneously behind the leaders.

NOTE

Observe Commander Of Life's jump from the stalls given his hold-up style needs the best possible start to overcome the tactical disadvantage.

7:30 — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners

Station X to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Station X led, as the map showed.

Station X won at 2.38 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Station X

Prominent · 3

Stanley SpencerRoberto CaroBeaujolais Nouveau

Midfield · 2

AlondraTough Enough

Hold Up · 2

Alpha MagicPeter The Wolf

Station X will be the sole early leader in this small field, with Stanley Spencer, Roberto Caro and Beaujolais Nouveau settling just behind in prominent positions. The confirmed front-runner Station X should get an easy time of it early, setting a sustainable pace without pressure from other natural leaders. With the hold-up horses Alondra, Tough Enough, Peter The Wolf and Alpha Magic needing to come from off the pace, this race shape strongly favours the front-runners and prominent racers who can sit close to Station X's steady gallop and kick when the tempo lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Station X Controls

45% probability

If Station X gets the expected easy lead and isn't pressured early.

The leader can dictate fractions and save energy for a strong finish, while the hold-up horses face a tough task if the pace doesn't collapse. Station X's unexposed AW form and previous close finishes over course and distance make him perfectly positioned.

Station XStanley SpencerRoberto CaroBeaujolais Nouveau

Prominent Pressure Cooker

30% probability

If Stanley Spencer or Roberto Caro apply early pressure to Station X.

The increased pace will set up the race for the closers, particularly those with tactical speed like Alondra who has won three times on artificial surfaces. Station X's stamina gets tested while the hold-up horses get the strong pace they need.

AlondraRoberto CaroStanley SpencerAlpha Magic

Hold-Up Horse Surprise

15% probability

If the early pace completely collapses with Station X going too slowly.

The race becomes a sprint finish where class and finishing speed matter most, suiting horses like Peter The Wolf who showed ability when winning at Chepstow. Alpha Magic's fresh appearance after 282 days could also be a factor in a slowly-run race.

Peter The WolfAlpha MagicAlondraStanley Spencer

Pace Duel Breakdown

10% probability

If multiple prominent runners engage Station X early in a speed battle.

All the early leaders tire dramatically, opening the door for the most patient hold-up horse with the strongest finish. Alondra's three AW wins and recent Wolverhampton form make her the most likely beneficiary of such a collapse.

AlondraTough EnoughPeter The WolfAlpha Magic

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Station X must be watched for early positioning - if he doesn't secure the lead cleanly, his whole race plan falls apart

WATCH

Stanley Spencer's early tactics are crucial - if he presses Station X early it completely changes the race dynamic

NOTE

Alondra needs to be noted for her position turning in - she requires a strong pace to be effective from her hold-up style

WATCH

Roberto Caro's consistent recent form makes him dangerous if getting the right trip from his prominent position

NOTE

Alpha Magic returning from such a long break needs watching for fitness levels and whether he shows his previous promise fresh

8:00 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Spirit Of Jenny likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Eldeyaar led; the map had Spirit Of Jenny in front.

Spirit Of Jenny won at 6.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Spirit Of Jenny

Prominent · 2

Initial BlueStyle King

Midfield · 2

EldeyaarAnificas Beauty

Hold Up · 2

Velvet SkiesWhat What What

Spirit Of Jenny will likely lead from the gates with Style King and Initial Blue tracking prominently, creating a moderate pace in this small field. The prominent racers should be comfortable early, while hold-up horses Velvet Skies, What What What and Anificas Beauty will need the pace to be strong enough to set up their finishing kicks. With limited early speed and just seven runners, this sets up as a tactical affair that will likely develop into a sprint from the 2f pole. This race shape favours prominent racers who can position handy and have gears to change when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tactics Prevail

55% probability

If the pace stays moderate and the race becomes tactical

Spirit Of Jenny and Style King can dictate terms from their forward positions, with Initial Blue also well-placed to pounce. The hold-up horses will struggle to make up ground if the pace doesn't quicken sufficiently until late.

Spirit Of JennyStyle KingInitial BlueEldeyaar

Strong Pace Benefits Closers

25% probability

If Spirit Of Jenny forces a strong gallop or gets pressured early

The genuine pace will set up perfectly for Velvet Skies and What What What to unleash finishing kicks. Anificas Beauty could also benefit despite her pulling tendencies if the strong pace settles her.

What What WhatVelvet SkiesAnificas BeautyInitial Blue

Improver Steps Forward

12% probability

If What What What bounces back from his poor Thirsk run

His February course and distance win shows he has the ability at this level, and the return to 6f from 5f last time could unlock improvement. The race shape would need to provide enough pace for his hold-up style to be effective.

What What WhatInitial BlueStyle KingEldeyaar

Outsider Ambush

8% probability

If the pace collapses completely and it becomes a pure sprint finish

Eldeyaar's recent Thirsk win shows he retains ability, and at a big price he could pick up the pieces. Anificas Beauty's higher ability than her rating suggests could also surface in a slowly-run race.

EldeyaarAnificas BeautyWhat What WhatVelvet Skies

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

What What What was easy to back and showed no interest at Thirsk, suggesting something may be amiss

WATCH

Velvet Skies has disappointed in three runs for new connections despite being well-backed each time

NOTE

Spirit Of Jenny's ability to dictate the pace will be crucial to how this tactical race unfolds

WATCH

Anificas Beauty's pulling tendencies could be exacerbated by the long layoff and small field

NOTE

Style King's prominent style under De Sousa makes him the main danger if the pace stays moderate

8:30 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

Jane Of The Jungle to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jane Of The Jungle led, as the map showed.

Obsidian Verse won at 5.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Jane Of The Jungle

Prominent · 5

Obsidian VerseTaaklamPerfect PriceThe Tunguska EventJack Rabbit Slims

Midfield · 2

InclusiveBelling The Cat

Hold Up · 4

Marra DonnaDabblingBarry The WormCarnation Queen

Jane Of The Jungle will attempt to steal this from the front, but faces immediate pressure from five prominent racers: Taaklam, Perfect Price, The Tunguska Event, Obsidian Verse, and Jack Rabbit Slims all wanting to race handy. This congestion will create a messy, competitive gallop through the first 3f before the pace quickens entering the home straight. With no other confirmed leaders and multiple horses scrapping for position, the early fractions will be honest but not destructive. The tactical verdict strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early traffic and finish with one sustained run.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the prominent pack goes too hard chasing Jane Of The Jungle through honest fractions

The backmarkers get the perfect setup as the early pace collapses in the final furlong. Horses like Marra Donna, Carnation Queen, and Barry The Worm can unleash finishing kicks while the prominent brigade ties up.

Marra DonnaCarnation QueenBarry The WormBelling The Cat

Prominent Survivor Strikes

25% probability

If one prominent horse can secure an uncontested position while others scrimmage

The winner threads through cleanly while rivals get into traffic trouble around the 2f pole. The Tunguska Event or Taaklam could capitalize on their AW form if finding racing room.

The Tunguska EventTaaklamObsidian VersePerfect Price

Front Runner Wires Field

12% probability

If Jane Of The Jungle faces less pressure than expected and the prominent horses hesitate

She builds an unassailable lead as the chasers mark each other instead of closing the gap. The maiden gets first run on her rivals and holds on grimly despite her poor recent form.

Jane Of The JungleBarry The WormThe Tunguska EventMarra Donna

Complete Pace Collapse

8% probability

If the early gallop becomes pedestrian with Jane Of The Jungle going too slowly

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse can win regardless of position. Pure class and current form become the only factors in a bunched finish.

Obsidian VerseTaaklamPerfect PriceCarnation Queen

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jane Of The Jungle's early fractions - if she goes too fast or too slow she compromises the entire race shape

WATCH

Traffic problems developing 2f out when Taaklam, Perfect Price, Obsidian Verse and Jack Rabbit Slims converge from prominent positions

NOTE

Barry The Worm's fitness after 159 days off - any market move would suggest connections expect him ready

WATCH

The Tunguska Event and Warren Fentiman's 5lb claim making him effective top weight in a competitive handicap

NOTE

Marra Donna's tactical positioning early - needs to settle in rear to utilize her proven finishing kick

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 30 April 2026.

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