Archive›Southwell (AW) · 7 April 2026

Southwell (AW)

7 April 2026 · 8 races

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4:55 — Download The At The Races App Fillies' Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Galileo Charm to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Spirit Of Jenny and Rovinia led; the map had Galileo Charm in front.

Pickersgill won at 3.75 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Galileo Charm

Prominent · 2

Spirit Of JennyPickersgill

Midfield · 3

SeapearlMaybe SoonRovinia

Hold Up · 3

Jamie SommersKhuskhasMy Shagaf

Galileo Charm will lead from the gates with Spirit Of Jenny and Pickersgill likely settling just behind in prominent positions. With only one confirmed front-runner, Galileo Charm can dictate terms at a comfortable gallop without early pressure, setting up a sustainable pace through the middle furlongs. The large contingent of hold-up runners (Jamie Sommers, Seapearl, My Shagaf, Rovinia, Maybe Soon, Khuskhas) will be looking to deliver late challenges, but they'll need the leaders to fold. This race shape strongly favours the early pace, as Galileo Charm can control the tempo and the prominent runners can track into ideal striking positions without having to come from too far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leader Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Galileo Charm maintains her strong recent form and dictates an even gallop.

She can kick clear turning for home before the hold-up brigade get into gear, with the prominent runners best placed to chase her down. The single pace-setter advantage proves decisive on this track configuration.

Galileo CharmSpirit Of JennyPickersgillJamie Sommers

Prominent Runners Strike

30% probability

If Galileo Charm sets the pace but begins to tire in the final furlong.

Spirit Of Jenny and Pickersgill can capitalize from their tracking positions, having saved energy while staying close to the pace. The hold-up horses face too much ground to make up in the closing stages.

Spirit Of JennyPickersgillGalileo CharmJamie Sommers

Hold-Up Challenge Succeeds

15% probability

If the early pace becomes unsustainably fast or the leaders stop quickly.

Jamie Sommers and My Shagaf can time their runs perfectly from off the pace, sweeping past tired leaders in the final 100 yards. This requires either pace pressure early or the front-runners to hit the wall.

Jamie SommersMy ShagafSeapearlRovinia

Surprise Package Emerges

10% probability

If one of the less fancied hold-up runners finds significant improvement.

Maybe Soon or Seapearl could benefit from a steadier pace and deliver an unexpected challenge with their low weights. The form horses would need to underperform for this scenario to materialize.

Maybe SoonSeapearlKhuskhasRovinia

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Galileo Charm breaking smartly and establishing an uncontested lead - if she gets first run she'll be very hard to catch

WATCH

Spirit Of Jenny showing any signs of rustiness early after her 190-day layoff - fitness could be the deciding factor

NOTE

My Shagaf settling better without cheekpieces after going too keenly in headgear last time

WATCH

Jamie Sommers getting a clear run from off the pace - Loughnane's 7lb claim makes her very competitive

NOTE

The pace through the first half-mile - if it's genuine it will set up the hold-up horses, if not the leaders benefit

5:30 — Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap

5f · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners

Smooth Silesie to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Smooth Silesie led, as the map showed.

Castan won at 4.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Smooth Silesie

Prominent · 4

CastanBlue LakotaBinadhamToomuchforme

Midfield · 1

Fierce

Hold Up · 3

Dark KestrelTees AggregatesBrazilian Belle

Smooth Silesie will take them along as the sole confirmed leader, but the real drama unfolds behind with Castan, Binadham, Blue Lakota and Toomuchforme all wanting prominent positions in the first two furlongs. This congestion will create early scrimmaging and potentially compromise some of these prominent runners, while Smooth Silesie may get an easier time than expected if rivals neutralize each other fighting for position. The hold-up horses Brazilian Belle, Dark Kestrel and Fierce can sit off this early pace battle, but on a sharp 5f track they need the pace to be genuine to set up their finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and any hold-up horse with tactical speed, as the prominent runners face the highest risk of getting caught in traffic trouble.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

40% probability

If Smooth Silesie gets an uncontested lead while prominent runners neutralize each other.

The pace-setter can dictate fractions without pressure as rivals behind fight for position, allowing Pat Cosgrave to control the race and kick when ready. Hold-up horses benefit from the genuine pace but need to avoid being too far back on this sharp track.

Smooth SilesieBrazilian BelleDark KestrelFierce

Prominent Battle Backfires

35% probability

If the four prominent runners (Castan, Binadham, Blue Lakota, Toomuchforme) create early mayhem fighting for position.

The scrimmaging 2-3 furlongs out compromises these runners' finishing efforts, while Brazilian Belle and Dark Kestrel can pick their way through late. Smooth Silesie benefits most if still in front when the prominent runners tire from their early exertions.

Brazilian BelleDark KestrelSmooth SilesieFierce

Tactical Speed Prevails

15% probability

If one of the prominent runners (likely Blue Lakota or Binadham) secures an ideal pitch without getting caught in traffic.

This runner can track Smooth Silesie without the early hassle that befalls the others, then outfinish the leader in the final furlong. The remaining prominent runners still face traffic issues while hold-up horses need everything to fall right.

Blue LakotaBinadhamBrazilian BelleCastan

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Smooth Silesie goes too slow early and the prominent runners fail to apply pressure.

The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole with Brazilian Belle's finishing kick proving decisive against tired pace-setters. This scenario requires the early pace to be pedestrian and the hold-up horses to be positioned close enough to strike.

Brazilian BelleDark KestrelTees AggregatesFierce

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for early scrimmaging between Castan, Binadham, Blue Lakota and Toomuchforme as they fight for prominent positions behind Smooth Silesie

WATCH

Brazilian Belle needs to be positioned closer than usual to the pace given this is minimum 5f trip on sharp track

NOTE

Smooth Silesie returning from five-month break could be vulnerable late if the race becomes truly run

WATCH

Tees Aggregates making surface debut after long break represents unknown factor in pace equation

NOTE

Watch for Fierce at big odds if the pace sets up perfectly for his hold-up style and light weight tells

6:00 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap

1m · Standard · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Captain Fox v GatehouseHISTORIC

How it ran

Deported and Island Bear led; the map had Captain Fox and Gatehouse in front.

Gatehouse won at 4.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Captain FoxGatehouse

Prominent · 1

Sovereign View

Midfield · 2

Magical MerlotDelinquent

Hold Up · 2

Island BearDeported

Captain Fox and Gatehouse will lead from the start, with Captain Fox's recent front-running victory suggesting he'll force the early pace. Both leaders have the tactical speed to ensure an honest gallop over this 1m trip on the all-weather surface. The remaining five runners all possess hold-up or midfield styles, meaning they'll be reliant on the two pace-setters creating enough tempo to allow late charges. This race shape strongly favours prominent racers who can track the leaders without getting caught up in the early battle, as the hold-up horses may find themselves with too much to do against two committed front-runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Sustained Early Pace

45% probability

If both Captain Fox and Gatehouse engage in a genuine speed duel through the first half-mile

The honest tempo will set up perfectly for horses that can sit prominently and pick up the pieces when the leaders tire. Sovereign View and potentially Magical Merlot can benefit from tracking the pace without committing early.

Sovereign ViewMagical MerlotCaptain FoxGatehouse

One Leader Dominates

30% probability

If Captain Fox or Gatehouse establishes an uncontested lead while the other settles behind

The lone leader can dictate fractions and potentially steal the race if the hold-up horses are caught napping. The early leader gets an easy time of it while the closers struggle to make up ground.

Captain FoxGatehouseSovereign ViewMagical Merlot

Closers' Paradise

15% probability

If both leaders go too fast early and collapse dramatically in the final two furlongs

The strong pace will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses to unleash their finishing kicks. Island Bear and Delinquent, despite their poor recent form, could benefit from this scenario.

Island BearDelinquentMagical MerlotDeported

Messy Moderate Pace

10% probability

If neither leader shows their usual early pace and the race becomes a tactical affair

The lack of early tempo will favour horses with natural tactical speed who can adapt. This scenario could suit any horse but makes the race more unpredictable and less form-reliant.

Magical MerlotCaptain FoxSovereign ViewGatehouse

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Captain Fox could steal this if Gatehouse isn't sharp enough after 117 days off and fails to provide early competition

WATCH

Island Bear makes multiple debuts (handicap/AW/seasonal) after 248 days off, fitness and adaptation both questionable

NOTE

Magical Merlot's hold-up style depends entirely on Captain Fox and Gatehouse providing sufficient early pace

WATCH

Sovereign View faces fitness test after 185-day absence despite having best form credentials over this trip

NOTE

Delinquent gets weight relief down to 125lbs but must overcome poor recent form and tactical disadvantage

6:30 — Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap

6f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners

4 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Paranjape led; the map had Explosive Finnish and Queen Sana and Magic Lady Mae and Eightthreeone in front.

Eightthreeone won at 21.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it led.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 4

Explosive FinnishQueen SanaMagic Lady MaeEightthreeone

Prominent · 3

SagremorSprinting SpeedParanjape

Midfield · 1

Faithful Dream

Hold Up · 4

Real JackHorwichFanjoveGo Victor

Explosive Finnish, Queen Sana, Magic Lady Mae and Eightthreeone will ensure a strong gallop from the gates in this 6f handicap. The pace will be fierce early with these confirmed front-runners likely to engage from the start, creating a searching test of stamina over the minimum trip. This sustained gallop will set up the race perfectly for hold-up horses who can pick up the pieces late. The strong early pace favours closers like Real Jack, Horwich, Fanjove and Faithful Dream who can capitalise on the inevitable weakening of the pace-setters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

55% probability

If the four front-runners engage in a speed duel from the start

The sustained gallop will drain the leaders and create perfect conditions for the closers to sweep past in the final furlong. Hold-up horses with tactical speed will have ideal conditions to strike.

Real JackHorwichFaithful DreamFanjove

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If one of the pace-setters can establish a slight advantage and avoid the speed battle

Queen Sana or Explosive Finnish could steal a march on their rivals and find enough in reserve to hold off the late challengers. Early positioning will be crucial.

Queen SanaExplosive FinnishMagic Lady MaeParanjape

Prominent Horse Prevails

12% probability

If Paranjape can track the pace without getting involved in early skirmishes

The prominent runners can benefit from a strong gallop ahead while avoiding the worst of the pace battle, allowing them to strike at the optimal moment. This tactical position often proves decisive.

ParanjapeSagremorSprinting SpeedQueen Sana

Moderate Pace Develops

8% probability

If the front-runners are more restrained than expected in the early stages

A steadier tempo would favour the natural speed horses who can quicken best, negating the advantage usually held by hold-up horses in sprint handicaps.

Explosive FinnishMagic Lady MaeQueen SanaEightthreeone

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Queen Sana and Explosive Finnish could set unsustainable fractions if they clash heads early and compromise each other's chances

WATCH

Eightthreeone returns after 300 days absence and needs to prove his fitness in a competitive handicap

NOTE

Faithful Dream carries just 124lbs and gets a significant weight advantage that could prove decisive in a tight finish

WATCH

Real Jack makes his handicap debut off an opening mark after showing improvement last time out

NOTE

The four confirmed front-runners could create a pace collapse that sets up perfectly for the hold-up brigade

7:00 — Sky Sports Racing Mile Series Final Handicap (CCR Mile Series Final)

1m · Standard · HCAP · 13 runners

Lexington Jet to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lexington Jet led, as the map showed.

Studious won at 6.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lexington Jet

Prominent · 4

UnitingMoonjidGennadiusGiant

Midfield · 4

Signcastle CityLaw Of DesignRising ForceMy Boy Harry

Hold Up · 4

TonalCommander Of LifeEchalarStudious

Lexington Jet is the sole confirmed front runner and will set a moderate, sustainable pace without pressure in the early stages. Uniting, Moonjid, Giant, and Gennadius can press forward but are more tactical prominent runners who won't necessarily commit early. The lack of genuine pace pressure means the tempo will be honest but not demanding, allowing the large contingent of hold-up horses to get into contention. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners and hold-up horses who can finish, as the soft pace will leave plenty in reserve for those who can quicken late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horse Triumph

45% probability

If the pace stays moderate and Lexington Jet isn't pressured early

The tempo becomes too slow for the leader to sustain his kick, allowing the back markers to unleash superior finishing speed. Horses like Studious, Tonal, and Commander Of Life can exploit their tactical speed advantage.

StudiousTonalCommander Of LifeRising Force

Prominent Runner Pounces

30% probability

If Uniting or Moonjid track the leader closely and strike approaching the final furlong

These tactical prominent runners get the perfect trip behind the moderate pace and have enough in reserve to outkick both the leader and the hold-up horses. Their positioning gives them first run on the field.

UnitingMoonjidGiantSigncastle City

Lexington Jet Wire Job

15% probability

If no horse applies early pressure and the leader gets an armchair ride throughout

The front runner conserves energy through soft fractions and has enough left to resist late challenges, capitalising on his proven course-and-distance effectiveness. His three Chelmsford wins show he can control races when unopposed.

Lexington JetTonalCommander Of LifeStudious

Speed Collapse

10% probability

If multiple prominent runners engage Lexington Jet early and create genuine pace pressure

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours horses with proven stamina reserves who can pick up the pieces. The early pace duel compromises the front division completely.

Rising ForceMy Boy HarryLaw Of DesignEchalar

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lexington Jet getting an uncontested lead could prove decisive given his three Chelmsford wins this year

WATCH

Uniting and Moonjid's early positioning will be crucial as both need to track the pace without getting involved early

NOTE

Tonal's starting position from his inside draw as the only proven course winner could provide a significant tactical edge

WATCH

Giant and Gennadius from the Ian Williams and Richard Hannon stables respectively may be overbet given recent struggles

NOTE

Rising Force adapting to all-weather surface after recent turf success for new trainer John Butler

7:30 — attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap

1m6f · Standard · HCAP · 4 runners

Clansman to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Analogical led; the map had Clansman in front.

Trojan Soldier won at 2.62 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Clansman

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 1

Atheneum

Hold Up · 2

AnalogicalTrojan Soldier

Clansman will make all the running from the start with his confirmed front-running style, setting a sustainable pace over this 1m6f trip without immediate pressure. Trojan Soldier, Analogical, and Atheneum are all hold-up horses who will settle behind and look to finish strongly. With three hold-up horses chasing one uncontested leader, the pace will be steady early before intensifying from the 3f pole as the closers make their moves. This race shape clearly favours the front runner who can dictate terms and the strongest finisher among the hold-up brigade.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Clansman Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Clansman gets an uncontested lead and maintains his rhythm.

He can dictate a pace that suits his stamina strengths and prove hard to peg back up the long Southwell straight. The three hold-up horses leave their runs too late chasing his honest gallop.

ClansmanAnalogicalTrojan SoldierAtheneum

Strong Closer Prevails

35% probability

If one of the hold-up horses produces a superior turn of foot in the final 2f.

The steady early pace allows the classiest closer to wind up effectively and overhaul Clansman's honest but limited kick. Quality tells in the closing stages.

AnalogicalTrojan SoldierClansmanAtheneum

Trojan Soldier's Consistency

12% probability

If Trojan Soldier times his challenge perfectly from off the pace.

His course experience and proven stamina over this trip allows him to find the gaps and grind past tiring rivals. He benefits from the patient tactics that have brought four placings from five handicap starts.

Trojan SoldierAnalogicalClansmanAtheneum

Pace Collapse Finish

8% probability

If Clansman goes too fast early or fades dramatically in the final furlong.

The race becomes a sprint finish between the three hold-up horses, with whoever gets the clearest run benefiting most. The front runner pays for his honest pace-making efforts.

AnalogicalAtheneumTrojan SoldierClansman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Clansman getting too keen early if challenged for the lead, as he could empty out quickly in the straight

WATCH

Monitor Analogical's jumping from the stalls as hold-up horses need to be handy enough at this trip to deliver their finishing kick

NOTE

Observe Trojan Soldier's positioning turning for home as his best efforts have come when getting clear runs in the straight

WATCH

Check if Atheneum shows any early pace as his maiden status suggests he may lack the tactical speed of his rivals

NOTE

Watch the sectional times early as a genuinely run race will suit the proven stayers over the course specialists

8:00 — Free Bets On attheraces.com Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Standard · NOV · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

8:30 — Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap

7f · Standard · HCAP · 13 runners

Lead contested: Saisons d'Or v EmbarkedHISTORIC

How it ran

Embarked led, as the map showed.

Wrydcroft won at 7.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Saisons d'OrEmbarked

Prominent · 2

Federal EnvoyRaft Up

Midfield · 5

Moby QuickKing DavidWrydcroftFools Rush InBomb Squad

Hold Up · 4

Velvet SkiesCuban GirlCamera ShyReginald Charles

Saisons d'Or and Embarked will set the early tempo as the only confirmed front-runners, with Embarked likely more aggressive from his lower grade. The modest pace from just two leaders creates a steady gallop rather than breakneck speed, allowing the large contingent of hold-up horses to get competitive positions. With 10 of 13 runners adopting hold-up tactics, the race sets up perfectly for closers who can produce a sustained finish. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can benefit from the honest but not punishing early pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horse Dominance

55% probability

If the pace stays honest and the large pack of closers get good racing room

The steady gallop allows hold-up specialists to position ideally and the quality closers overwhelm the modest pace-setters. Multiple hold-up horses finish strongly with the best weighted prevailing.

Camera ShyReginald CharlesBomb SquadKing David

Prominent Runner Capitalizes

25% probability

If Raft Up can secure an ideal stalking position behind the two leaders

The prominent runner avoids the hold-up traffic and kicks clear when the pace-setters weaken. Superior tactical positioning trumps the closing pack in a messy finish.

Raft UpFederal EnvoyCamera ShyVelvet Skies

Front-Runner Survives

12% probability

If Embarked's 19lb weight advantage allows him to dictate completely uncontested fractions

The ultra-light weight compensates for modest ability as he sets comfortable sectionals and holds off late challengers. The closers leave their runs too late after underestimating the pace.

EmbarkedSaisons d'OrRaft UpFederal Envoy

Traffic Chaos Benefits Outsider

8% probability

If the 10 hold-up horses create a wall of traffic in the home straight

A well-positioned outsider finds clear running while the fancied horses get shuffled back and blocked. Late splits in the field allow an unconsidered runner to emerge.

WrydcroftCuban GirlMoby QuickVelvet Skies

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Embarked and Saisons d'Or must both go forward early - if either hangs back the pace collapses completely

WATCH

Camera Shy in stall 11 and Bomb Squad in stall 13 need clean breaks to avoid being trapped wide throughout

WATCH

Raft Up's 0-6 Southwell record versus strong Newcastle form suggests genuine course bias against him

NOTE

Federal Envoy has all three wins over this C&D but trainer Iain Jardine is 0-17 in last 14 days

NOTE

Wrydcroft returns from 166-day break having never raced on Tapeta but showed clear soft ground preference

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 7 April 2026.

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