4:25 — Follow @attheraces On Instagram Nursery Handicap Stakes
5f · Standard · HCAP · 8 runners
Roxa Love likeliest to leadFREEHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
Lover Girl won at 8.00. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Roxa Love
Prominent · 2
Paper ViewPrincesse d'Orange
Midfield · 3
Dubai CharmMinzelleLover Girl
Hold Up · 2
Casino StarNeedin' U
Roxa Love is the likeliest to lead, having done so in its last run and showing an appetite for the front in 1 of its last 3 attempts; the pace should remain uncontested if it settles there. However, this field is unusually heavy with prominent-running types—Lover Girl, Minzelle, Paper View and Needin' U all prefer to race prominently—and several lack all-weather form, which will pull them sideways and compress the field mid-race. The result is a scrambled pace: Roxa Love will likely hold the lead early, but the contest for second and third will be messy and contested, creating a crawling sprint to the line where tactical position matters less than raw class. Front-runners have a strong record over 5f on this surface, but only if they get genuine uncontested room; contested pressure or a collapsed mid-race setup suits the stalkers and hold-up types instead.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lover Girl arrives late
Scenario
If Roxa Love's early lead is challenged by the crowd of prominent types, the pace collapses into a messy middle furlong and the field bunches.
Lover Girl has won and placed three times over 5f on good ground, holds a 7lb rating edge over most rivals, and is only now returning after 55 days—the long break sharpens juveniles and the draw in 4 is neutral. The scrambled pace will suit a horse that can settle and strike late more than one caught in the mid-race traffic.
Lover GirlMinzelleCasino Star
B
Roxa Love holds on
Scenario
If Roxa Love breaks cleanly, settles in front, and the prominent types behind it cannot organise a co-ordinated challenge in the closing furlong.
Roxa Love has led in its last run and over 5f on standard all-weather, and trainer George Boughey wins at a healthy strike-rate; David Egan is a forceful rider who commits early. An uncontested lead offers the best chance, though the weight of pace rivals makes this outcome less likely than a scramble.
Roxa LoveMinzellePaper View
C
Casino Star picks through
Scenario
If the pace falls apart completely and the field spreads across the track in the final 100 yards, leaving Casino Star to weave through in a free-running rush.
Casino Star has placed three times on turf and has raced twice on all-weather (5th and 3rd), showing it handles the surface; it is ridden to come from behind and benefits if chaos reigns. However, its 71 official rating is 13lb below Lover Girl and it has never won off the back end, making this outcome a tail-risk scenario.
Casino StarRoxa LoveLover Girl
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
WATCH
Lover Girl and Minzelle are both genuine prominent runners pushed into middle positions by the weight of pace types; whichever one adjusts best to settling will have the advantage when the mid-race scramble clears.
NOTE
Roxa Love's lead is contested property—if Lover Girl or Minzelle break well and harry it early, the pace will collapse into a crawl rather than stay steady, flattening the advantage of any front-runner.
KEY
Princesse d'Orange, Dubai Charm, Paper View and Minzelle all lack all-weather form; if ground conditions prove sticky or the surface plays soft, all four could struggle for traction exactly when tactical positioning matters most.
NOTE
Casino Star is the sole hold-up type; if the field truly bunches and tactics fail to sort early, it will have a clear lane in the final furlong, but its 71 rating means it must find ideal conditions to win.
5:00 — Get Raceday Ready Handicap Stakes
1m6f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners
Hellion likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
No horse was credited with leading.
State Express won at 10.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Hellion
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 7
WedonttellthetruthState ExpressEdwardtheninthPop The QuestionTwin And TonicRubelliteLady of Clover
Hold Up · 4
Time TurnerMineralitySisterandbrotherFlag of Eva
Hellion is the only horse with any recent record of leading, but that happened just once in its last six runs and it was held up last time out; Silvestre De Sousa rides it positively, but this is not a confirmed front-runner. The field contains several genuine hold-up types—Wedonttellthetruth, Rubellite, Edwardtheninth, Pop The Question, Lady of Clover and State Express all race naturally at the rear—but only Hellion has any realistic chance of dictating the pace. This will likely produce an uncontested gallop with Hellion clear in front or a slow, bunched race if it fails to settle. Hold-up horses have recorded a strong record over this trip and going here, and with so many of them in the field, a late-arriving closer will be well positioned to strike. Prominent racers have also fared well at Southwell over a mile and a half on standard ground, and if any of the hold-up types can find racing room in the final furlong, they could pick up the pieces. The most likely outcome is a moderate early pace and a strong closer arriving in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer arrives late
Scenario
If Hellion struggles to make the lead stick or is outpaced in the final quarter...
Hold-up types dominate the closing stages and one of the stronger finishers picks up a modest early pace. Rubellite, with three wins over this trip and going and solid recent form (1-1-4 in last five), is best placed to take advantage of the back mark and time a run home. Wedonttellthetruth, strong at this distance (1W2P on it) and ridden by Saffie Osborne, is also well equipped to strike late.
RubelliteWedonttellthetruthEdwardtheninth
B
Contested middle ground
Scenario
If two or more hold-up types race prominently and create a genuine pace...
A tighter, more competitive race develops in the centre of the field with early position at a premium. Horses like Lady of Clover and State Express, neither of which has shown much winning form, fade under pressure, but Time Turner (2W3P over 16f on standard ground) and Sisterandbrother (1W4P on similar conditions) are tough enough to grind out a result over the final stages.
Time TurnerLady of CloverSisterandbrother
C
Front-runner holds on
Scenario
If Hellion gets the lead early, Silvestre De Sousa rides patiently, and no serious challenger emerges...
Hellion's rarity value—it has led in only one of its last six runs—makes this the least likely shape, but if it manages to settle in front, the flat character of the Polytrack and a modest overall pace could allow it to hold the field at bay. Its official rating (76) is equal best, but racing out of its natural hold-up role creates genuine doubts about its staying power under pressure.
HellionWedonttellthetruthRubellite
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Rubellite is the standout: it has won three times over this exact trip and going, holds recent winning form (1-1-4), and the field's number of hold-up types means a closer will almost certainly pick up a modest pace.
KEY
Wedonttellthetruth is equally dangerous as a late runner with proven form over this distance (1W2P) and the profile of this race—slow early pace, strong finish—built for its style.
WATCH
Hellion's official rating of 76 is joint best in the field, but it has led in only one of its last six runs and is out of its natural hold-up role; discounting its chance under scenarios that require it to lead is prudent.
NOTE
Time Turner and Sisterandbrother both have solid course-and-distance records but are neutralised by the likelihood of a late-arriving shape; both are tactically vulnerable if the pace collapses early.
NOTE
Twin And Tonic is running blind on all-weather: no AW form and the going is flagged as a concern; Cam Hardie's infrequent rides and Roger Fell's recent record (1-13) offer no comfort.
Summer In Paris likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
Emtinan led; the map had Summer In Paris in front.
Crown Of Crowns won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Summer In Paris
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 3
Master Of The SkyEmtinanDontelimurnamepike
Hold Up · 3
VelardoCrown Of CrownsStateira Belle
Summer In Paris has raced prominently in its recent starts and is the likeliest horse to make the running, though it has not led in its last five runs—the Fahey yard and jockey Cam Hardie do tend to go forward. The race should unfold as an uncontested affair if Summer In Paris gets to the front; no other runner has the recent form or the stable pattern to fight for the lead. This field contains several hold-up types—Dontelimurnamepike, Emtinan, Crown Of Crowns and Stateira Belle all prefer to race off the pace—which means midfield runners and closers who can pick their way through should find room to advance. On this track and trip, prominent racers have fared well, but so too have midfield runners, and hold-up horses have struggled; the key here is that an uncontested tempo from Summer In Paris will suit anything capable of tracking it and finishing strongly far more than it suits a tailing field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Summer In Paris leads throughout
Scenario
If Summer In Paris makes the running unchallenged and builds a small but decisive advantage.
An uncontested pace with Summer In Paris pressing on will see it home if the Fahey string is in its usual form; the field behind lacks a rival with both the quality and the pattern to trouble it in front. Prominent racers have a decent record at the trip, and Summer In Paris is far the best horse in this novice field on paper.
Summer In ParisEmtinanDontelimurnamepike
B
Closer arrives from off the pace
Scenario
If one of the hold-up types—Crown Of Crowns or Stateira Belle—finds room from an uncontested early gallop and takes it over in the closing stages.
Midfield and hold-up runners have both beaten the odds here, and the cluster of horses wanting to race off the pace creates a bunched field that rewards something with a late finish. A closer with clear running would have every chance if Summer In Paris tires.
Crown Of CrownsStateira BelleEmtinan
C
Emtinan challenges from midfield
Scenario
If the early pace is steady enough to bring Emtinan and the other hold-up types into contention before the line.
Emtinan has raced without winning or placing on similar ground and lacks recent form, but the yard has had winners in the last fortnight and the horse's age and breeding suggest it could find improvement. It would need Summer In Paris to falter and a genuinely run race for it to get competitive, both unlikely here.
EmtinanDontelimurnamepikeCrown Of Crowns
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Summer In Paris leads by default; watch for any surprise early challenger from Master Of The Sky or Velardo that could disrupt an uncontested tempo and bring the hold-up horses into the race.
WATCH
Stateira Belle fades in the finish and should be avoided despite its hold-up position; the recent record and the known pattern argue strongly against it here.
NOTE
Emtinan and Dontelimurnamepike are both hold-up types in a field short of genuine pace, so both may race closer to the action than their style suggests, reducing their chances of a decisive late run.
Le Grand Etoile is the only confirmed front-runner in this field, having led in three of its last five runs, and should dictate an uncontested pace from the stalls. The field is largely made up of hold-up types—Courage Best, Ubettanotblink, Kaito, Unbeatable Fame, Arlecchino's Moon and Purrista all prefer to race patiently—which means Le Grand Etoile is unlikely to face a serious challenge for the lead and will build a clear advantage through the middle stages. However, a significant concern shadows this race: every runner bar Solar Mission and Arlecchino's Moon carries a going concern on Polytrack, and Le Grand Etoile itself has never raced on all-weather surfaces, making its ability to reproduce its front-running form highly uncertain. Front-runners have a strong record over this trip here, but only when they handle the ground; hold-up horses have consistently underperformed at Southwell over a mile. If Le Grand Etoile adapts to the all-weather surface, an uncontested lead will be a decisive advantage; if it struggles with the going, the lack of genuine pace will create a slowly-run affair that rewards stalkers and closers over the true back-markers. The field contains more genuine prominent and hold-up types than can all secure their natural positions—Le Grand Etoile is likeliest to lead, but Thunda Struck and Temple Court (both with solid recent form) are prominent racers forced to fight for room or settle further back than they prefer.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Le Grand Etoile's Uncontested Lead
Scenario
If Le Grand Etoile adapts to the all-weather and takes up the lead from the stalls
Le Grand Etoile will set an honest but steady pace, building a clear margin through the middle stages as the hold-up horses settle at a distance. The front-runner's established lead-taking pattern combined with minimal pressure from a field of reluctant early racers plays perfectly to the record of front-runners at this track and trip, provided the Polytrack surface does not blunt its typical acceleration.
Le Grand EtoileTemple CourtCasablanca Dream
B
Stalker Capitalises on Faltering Lead
Scenario
If Le Grand Etoile struggles with the all-weather and fades in the closing stages
A hold-up type—most likely Courage Best (11lb clear on the ratings, well-treated and fresh at 10 days), or Temple Court (steady recent form on turf, 54 days away)—will be perfectly positioned to strike in the final furlong as the front-runner weakens. Slowly-run races with a tiring leader have consistently rewarded patient racers at Southwell over a mile, and the absence of real pace in behind means a controlled run-in to the wire.
Courage BestTemple CourtCasablanca Dream
C
Prominent Racer Runs On
Scenario
If a prominent type like Thunda Struck or Temple Court forces its way to challenge two furlongs out while Le Grand Etoile holds
A genuine prominent racer with natural turn-of-foot will pick up the pieces between the faltering leader and the tardy hold-up horses, exploiting the race's slow early tempo and its own superior cruising speed. Temple Court's official rating (64) and TopSpeed (66) mark it as the strongest candidate here, but its complete absence of all-weather experience and 54-day lay-off create real uncertainty about its readiness to deliver.
Temple CourtThunda StruckCourage Best
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Le Grand Etoile has never raced on Polytrack; if it finds the surface unsuitable or tires late, the entire race shape collapses into a slow-run affair that heavily favours Courage Best and other hold-up types currently disadvantaged by their natural style.
WATCH
Temple Court and Thunda Struck are both capable prominent racers forced to fight for position behind an uncontested leader; if either gets loose and runs aggressively in the middle stages, it could shorten the race and neutralise the hold-up brigade before the finish.
NOTE
Arlecchino's Moon is the only hold-up type with proven all-weather credentials at Southwell (three runs, consistent placings); it may be better equipped to cope with the Polytrack surface than peers like Courage Best and Kaito, though its overall form is moderate.
NOTE
Draw is largely neutral across the field with no pronounced bias; all runners have equal opportunity to find their racing space on an all-weather surface where the going is Standard and consistent across all races this afternoon.
Astral CallingRevokedPen Lan IconThe Kalonji ManBest Yet
Hello You Ten has led in only one of its last five runs and comes here without all-weather form, making it an unlikely pace-setter despite being shown on the lead for lack of any confirmed front-runner in this field. The race will be run with minimal pace pressure early; most of this field are natural hold-up or midfield types, and without a committed front-runner, the tempo should collapse into a muddling middle race. This shapes as a race for horses that can pick up the pieces from the second half of the race onward. Prominent racers have a strong record over this trip and going, and any horse that can settle in touch and strike from the clouds will have the profile to win.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Closer arrives late
Scenario
If the early pace remains becalmed and no horse takes a commanding lead.
Revoked or Whiskey Galore picks up from behind a tiring field; they have proven hold-up form and the ratings to close out a slowly run race. A muddled tempo with no genuine pace-setter favours the horse that can cover ground in the straight without having to fight through the pack early.
RevokedWhiskey GalorePen Lan Icon
B
Stalker kicks clear
Scenario
If one of the natural hold-up types finds room in the middle and builds momentum into the straight.
A horse that races in the second flight and quickens when space opens will have more room than a horse left at the back; Soldier's Echo or Lady Nenaz in this position could run on strongly without being tapped for too much effort. The modest early pace sets up a one-paced affair where a runner travelling smoothly through the race can pick them all off.
Soldier's EchoLady NenazBest Yet
C
Hello You Ten leads and holds
Scenario
If Hello You Ten settles and the jockey commits to pressing forward from stalls.
Despite lacking all-weather form and having led in just one recent run, it could steal an uncontested lead in an unambitious field and prove hard to pass in a slowly run mile. The risk is high that it races out of its skin to get there and fades, but if the race lacks genuine pace it might just hang on.
Hello You TenLunar BlossomAstral Calling
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Revoked is the highest-rated runner (70 RPR) and has been kept fresh across multiple runs in 14 days; watch whether it gets a clear run from the back.
WATCH
Hello You Ten has no all-weather form and led in only one of five recent runs; if it fails to settle in front early, it will find itself struggling from the middle of the field.
NOTE
Lady Nenaz fades in the finish; if the mile is run at a genuine pace, it will expose weaknesses and prevent her from finishing strongly.
NOTE
Soldier's Echo has raced six days ago and has the tactical nous to sit in the second flight; it represents outsider value if the tempo stays measured.
7:00 — Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Fillies' Handicap Stakes
1m · Standard · HCAP · 9 runners
Style of Life likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
Style of Life led, as the map showed.
Rogue Citation won at 4.00 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Style of Life
Prominent · 1
Jojo's Legacy
Midfield · 3
Lovers LeapPoets PraiseLikeness
Hold Up · 4
Wondrous LightSilken BayKamawayRogue Citation
Style of Life is the only horse with clear recent evidence of front-running (led in 2 of last 4, including last time), but it carries a serious concern: no all-weather form on record, and the going report flags Standard going as unsuited to its turf-based profile. Jojo's Legacy and Likeness may race prominently from their draw positions, but neither has front-running credentials in their recent runs. The race will most likely develop as a contest between midfield and hold-up types, with no genuinely confident pace-setter to build pace early; this should suit horses able to track or challenge in the straight rather than those dependent on a strong gallop set up front. Prominent racers have delivered a strong record over this trip and surface, but only if they actually seize that ground: in a field where the leading contenders (Lovers Leap, Rogue Citation, Kamaway, Wondrous Light) are either hold-up or midfield runners by habit, a horse that can stalk and strike from the middle of the field offers the most reliable winning profile.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalker picks up midfield duel
Scenario
If the early pace proves unthreatening and no horse seizes the initiative decisively.
Lovers Leap will track in midfield, attack in the straight, and benefit from a race shorn of genuine front-runner pressure; Rogue Citation and Wondrous Light are equally well-positioned to finish strong from similar positions, and the winner will emerge from this group of runners who all profile as midfield or hold-up types. A straightforward gallop favours the horse with the best late acceleration and the clearest passage.
Lovers LeapRogue CitationWondrous Light
B
Jojo's Legacy sets weak pace
Scenario
If Jojo's Legacy goes forward from draw 7 and no other horse challenges it early.
Jojo's Legacy has turf form and will be ridden positively by its yard; it would set a moderate early tempo that keeps the race honest without controlling it, and Kamaway or Rogue Citation could capitalise with a well-timed run from the wings. A slowly-run race narrows the gap between front and back.
Rogue CitationKamawayLovers Leap
C
Style of Life gets the lead
Scenario
If the draw and early tactics allow Style of Life to escape to the front and its AW blank proves immaterial.
Style of Life has led in recent turf runs and the yard (Harriet Bethell) favours aggressive riding, but the absence of all-weather form and the Standard going are genuine red flags; if it does lead, it would have to hold on grimly in the straight against horses like Rogue Citation and Lovers Leap who would press it hard. This shape places too much faith in a mare trying to succeed without prior evidence on this surface.
Style of LifeRogue CitationLovers Leap
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Style of Life leads into the straight: monitor whether it begins to fade under pressure or holds gamely; if it weakens visibly, Rogue Citation or Lovers Leap will attack and likely prevail.
WATCH
Rogue Citation's official rating (81) and winning record on turf mean it remains a threat under any pace; do not underestimate its ability to strike from the hold-up position despite the expected moderate tempo.
NOTE
Jojo's Legacy's 158-day break is the longest in the field; first-time out can mean rusty beginnings or (rarely) improved sharpness—watch how it settles in the first furlong and whether it races to its turf form.
NOTE
Likeness has shown two places from seven runs at this trip and surface (8f on good/standard); a horse that can find the midfield and press late has genuine claims despite lacking the standout rating.
7:30 — Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes
1m · Standard · HCAP · 14 runners
Shaw Park likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
Big Alex Walmsley led; the map had Shaw Park in front.
Spirit Lead Me won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Shaw Park
Prominent · 2
Union IslandPretty Spirited
Midfield · 5
Spirit Lead MeKing of YorkMoon BeginningsBig Alex WalmsleyCaptain Cess
Hold Up · 6
Man of DesertVolto di MedusaErnie's ValentineEnpassantAsian JourneyHave You A Minute
Shaw Park is the only horse with recent form suggesting it will seek the lead, though even then it led in just one of its last six runs and is more a prominent racer than a confirmed front-runner. This should produce an uncontested pace if it gets there, but the field holds several genuine hold-up types—Moon Beginnings, King of York, Spirit Lead Me, and Captain Cess—who prefer to race at the rear, and they will be forced into midfield positions simply because there is no room at the back for all of them. The key tactical reality is that uncontested pace favours closers and stalkers operating from midfield, since front-runners have only matched expectations over this trip and going here, while horses racing prominently—and especially those holding ground from the midfield because there is no alternative—have won at a notably higher rate. Union Island, the Strand pick, is a prominent racer on recent evidence and will be well-placed if the pace is pedestrian.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent racer holds sway
Scenario
If Shaw Park sets a steady pace without much challenge, and the midfield group fractures early.
Union IslandShaw ParkEnpassantErnie's Valentine
B
Closer arrives from midfield
Scenario
If the released midfield hold-ups—Spirit Lead Me or King of York—get loose from traffic and quicken past tiring front-runners in the final quarter.
Spirit Lead MeMoon BeginningsVolto di Medusa
C
Shaw Park leads and holds
Scenario
If Shaw Park breaks well, gets genuine early position from draw 3, and faces minimal pressure through the middle miles.
Shaw ParkUnion IslandEnpassant
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Shaw Park may be forced into a lead it does not naturally seek; if Mortensen abandons the yard's usual waiting tactics and the pace collapses, Union Island could be left too far back to recover.
WATCH
Moon Beginnings, King of York, and Spirit Lead Me are all genuine hold-up horses squeezed into the midfield; if two of them get loose together, they will slice through the field late and could overwhelm a tiring front-runner.
NOTE
The all-weather has favoured prominent racers and midfield runners over hold-ups at this course; horses that can track or stalk the pace hold a structural advantage over those forced to come late.
KEY
Asian Journey's warning flag on pulling hard, combined with the 104-day gap since its last run, raises questions about its readiness; if it breaks too keenly, Jonny Peate may have to get a hard hold and the horse could lose position early.
NOTE
Ernie's Valentine has won twice from its last eight starts at this track and trip on the all-weather; it is a quiet threat that may find gaps others miss in a congested midfield.
8:00 — Free Bets On Attheraces.com Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)
6f · Standard · CLS4 · 11 runners
Dorigo likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
Dorigo led, as the map showed.
Cool King won at 12.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Dorigo
Prominent · 2
Denver SluiceEagle Storm
Midfield · 4
Edge of DesireMaeveontimePeacock's WayInchi's Mooch
Hold Up · 4
Cool KingDun EideannChristmas Is CominJaydee's Dream
Dorigo is the only horse with a recent record of taking the lead—it led in four of its last six runs and came away on top last time—but the evidence suggests it will not actually get there in this race. Kevin Ryan's yard is not in the form to push forward aggressively (5 winners in 30 days), and there is no obvious supporting pace to create a contested lead. Instead, the race is likely to be run on more modest terms, with no horse able to dominate the early stages. Over 6f on Polytrack in Standard going, front-runners have won at exactly the rate the market expects, but prominent racers—horses settled just behind any early pace—have a slight edge. This is a race that will suit a horse able to stalk and strike late rather than one forced to burn energy fighting for position early on. Midfield runners and hold-up horses have historically underperformed over this trip and going.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Stalker picks up pieces
Scenario
If no single horse commands the early pace and a runner settles in touch but not in front...
Inchi's Mooch and Eagle Storm will share any early play without either getting clear. A horse able to track that modest tempo and finish strongly will have room to pass tired rivals in the closing stages. This profile suits the strongest recent form in the race and rewards the ability to time a run rather than dictate.
Inchi's MoochEagle StormCool King
B
Eagle Storm leads throughout
Scenario
If Eagle Storm gets away cleanly from the stalls and sets a rhythm the field cannot match...
Eagle StormDorigoChristmas Is Comin
C
Dorigo forces the issue
Scenario
If Kevin Ryan commits Dorigo to the lead from the stalls and Kevin Stott rides it there boldly...
DorigoChristmas Is CominPeacock's Way
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Inchi's Mooch is lightly raced but the trainer is in excellent form and the horse has never run on Standard going; if it handles the surface, it has the profile to improve sharply.
WATCH
Dorigo must get the lead early or it will be forced to chase a race it is not equipped to dictate; Kevin Ryan's yard is not in the form to support an aggressive approach.
NOTE
Cool King has the best official rating and the strongest jockey, but has not been sighted for 21 days; watch for any signs of ring rust in the parade.
NOTE
Three of the eleven runners are unraced; Standard going at Southwell can produce surprises, especially when juveniles face established form for the first time.
8:30 — Download The At The Races App Handicap Stakes
7f · Standard · HCAP · 12 runners
Supreme Clarets likeliest to leadHISTORICDraw: M · MINIMAL
How it ran
Not That Guy led; the map had Supreme Clarets in front.
Montezin won at 6.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up.
4 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Supreme Clarets
Prominent · 2
NostrumNot That Guy
Midfield · 4
War HowlAisling OscarJersey MaverickEnacting
Hold Up · 5
BillyBMontezinKing of IthacaPrince of PilloElite Approach
Supreme Clarets is the only horse with any recent precedent for leading—it led last time out—but has no all-weather form and races out of its natural style on this surface; the Fahey yard tends to go forward, but without a confident front-runner, the pace should collapse into a crawl if Supreme Clarets doesn't force it, or be contested in a low-key affair if it does. Not That Guy and Nostrum will race prominently if given the chance, but neither is a committed pace-pusher. This is a race likely to be decided in the final furlong with the field bunched; prominent racers and stalkers—horses racing in the middle third of the field and ready to pick up the pieces—have the strongest record over this trip and going, while hold-up horses have underperformed. The most likely winner will come from a contested middle order or from a horse that settles just behind a weak pace.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Nostrum closes from stalking
Scenario
If Nostrum settles in a prominent or early-midfield position and waits for the pace to falter in the final furlong.
Nostrum has won twice from 11 starts on all-weather and has a win on good ground at this trip; it won on the Southwell polytrack earlier in the season and has been placed here three times. In a slowly-run race that denies early leaders and hold-up horses alike, a horse with tactical speed and recent course form will dominate. Nostrum's last-time-out second at 9 furlongs proves it is in sharp order and capable of rallying under Kevin Stott.
NostrumNot That GuyJersey Maverick
B
King of Ithaca grabs it late
Scenario
If Supreme Clarets takes them along weakly and King of Ithaca has room to improve in the straight.
King of Ithaca is 10 from 10 at this track over 7 furlongs in all weathers and has won once and been placed three times on the Southwell polytrack; its recent form is bare but the course record is exceptional. The race could be won by a horse that stays just off the pace, lets the front-runners tire, and runs on strongly in the closing stages.
King of IthacaBillyBMontezin
C
Elite Approach leads throughout
Scenario
If Elite Approach breaks sharply and Supreme Clarets fails to challenge or is never sent.
Elite Approach won on the Southwell surface three starts ago and has been placed once since; it is one of only two horses in the field to have won here recently. Front-runners have produced a fair strike rate over this trip and going, and if the pace is genuinely testing, a horse in front from the start may escape a closing cavalry that struggles to coordinate.
Elite ApproachMontezinNostrum
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
King of Ithaca's exceptional course record (10 from 10 at Southwell over this trip and distance) gives it a valid claim if the pace allows it to strike in the final furlong.
WATCH
Supreme Clarets has no all-weather form and races out of its natural style; if required to lead from the front, it is dependent on Fahey's yard tactics and McSweeney's riding rather than its own recent precedent.
NOTE
A slowly-run race will advantage horses like Nostrum and Jersey Maverick that can track a weak pace and accelerate late; Enacting's long absence and Elite Approach's youth and low rating make them vulnerable to speed if the field bunches.
NOTE
Montezin and Aisling Oscar have form at this track but are running off 33 and 146 days respectively; look for the race to be dictated by recent sharpness and course expertise rather than raw ability.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.