Archive›Stratford · 17 May 2026

Stratford

17 May 2026 · 7 races

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2:35 — Racing Welfare Supporting Mental Health Awareness Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m6f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

Lead contested: At Sunrise v Ka Mate Du BrivetFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Ka Mate Du Brivet led, as the map showed.

Our Guide won at 1.30 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

At SunriseKa Mate Du Brivet

Prominent · 1

Tiger Tobin

Midfield · 2

SavonGranite Sands

Hold Up · 2

Our GuideShuil Rocco

At Sunrise and Ka Mate Du Brivet will contest the early lead in this small field, with both having confirmed front-running styles that should create an honest gallop from the start. Tiger Tobin sits prominently behind the pace-setters, while Our Guide, Granite Sands and Shuil Rocco will all track from further back looking to pounce late. The sustained pace over 2m6f on good to firm ground will test stamina reserves, particularly as both leaders have questionable finishing kicks. This race shape strongly favours the hold-up horses who can conserve energy and finish powerfully, especially Our Guide with his proven ability to quicken late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horse Dominates

55% probability

If the two front runners At Sunrise and Ka Mate Du Brivet duel early and weaken from 2f out

The honest pace will set up perfectly for the patient hold-up horses to sweep past tired leaders in the final furlong. Our Guide's proven late kick makes him the primary beneficiary of this likely tactical setup.

Our GuideShuil RoccoGranite SandsTiger Tobin

Prominent Horse Profits

25% probability

If Tiger Tobin can sit third behind the battling leaders without getting involved in their duel

He can strike with a well-timed move approaching the final flight while the leaders tire and before the hold-up horses can respond. His prominent style positions him perfectly to exploit any pace collapse.

Tiger TobinOur GuideKa Mate Du BrivetShuil Rocco

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Ka Mate Du Brivet can establish a clear early lead without At Sunrise pressing him hard

The classier of the two leaders could maintain a sustainable rhythm and prove too strong for the closers on this sharp track. His second place last time out suggests he has the ability when things fall right.

Ka Mate Du BrivetTiger TobinOur GuideAt Sunrise

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If both At Sunrise and Ka Mate Du Brivet weaken dramatically after a fierce early battle

The entire field bunches up turning for home creating a sprint finish where any horse could prevail. Even outsiders like Granite Sands could benefit from the chaotic finish despite their limitations.

Granite SandsSavonShuil RoccoOur Guide

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

At Sunrise and Ka Mate Du Brivet could engage in a suicidal early pace battle that sets up the race for the hold-up horses

WATCH

Tiger Tobin has been off for 380 days and may need this run despite his ideal tactical position behind the leaders

NOTE

Our Guide's jumping will be crucial given his hold-up style requires clean leaps to maintain position for his late run

WATCH

Savon pulled up last time and represents a significant unknown quantity at these odds in what could be a tactical affair

NOTE

The good to firm ground may play against the front runners' stamina over this extended 2m6f trip at Stratford

3:05 — Happy 32nd Birthday Lottie Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Intenzo led; the map had Captain Cool and Whatyouwaitingfor and Alba Crus in front.

Captain Cool won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Captain CoolWhatyouwaitingforAlba Crus

Prominent · 2

Definite DreamMiss Denver

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

IntenzoCawthorne Cracker

Captain Cool, Whatyouwaitingfor and Alba Crus will ensure a strong gallop from the start over this testing 2m1f trip at Stratford. With three confirmed front-runners in a small field, they'll carve out a demanding pace that will test stamina reserves in the closing stages. The sustained gallop will suit horses with proven staying power who can finish strongly from off the pace. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses and prominent racers with strong finishing kicks over pure speed horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Collapses Leaders

45% probability

If the three front-runners go too hard early and tie up in the final furlong

The blistering pace set by Captain Cool, Whatyouwaitingfor and Alba Crus will find them all out in the closing stages, allowing the hold-up horses to sweep past. Cawthorne Cracker and Intenzo, despite their flaws, will benefit most from this tactical setup with their patient styles.

Cawthorne CrackerIntenzoMiss DenverDefinite Dream

Whatyouwaitingfor Controls Pace

30% probability

If Whatyouwaitingfor can dictate a more measured gallop and see off his front-running rivals

With superior form figures and jockey Lilly Pinchin able to rate him better than his rivals, he can control the tempo and kick clear. His recent chase experience gives him a crucial edge over the other pace-setters who have question marks.

WhatyouwaitingforMiss DenverDefinite DreamCawthorne Cracker

Captain Cool Wire-to-Wire

15% probability

If Captain Cool can steal a march and maintain a steady rhythm without the others pressuring him early

The Jennie Candlish-trained gelding gets an uncontested lead and builds an unassailable advantage before the others react. His recent consistency suggests he can handle the tactical scenario if given breathing room.

Captain CoolWhatyouwaitingforCawthorne CrackerIntenzo

Moderate Pace Suits All

10% probability

If the three leaders respect each other and settle into a more conservative rhythm early on

Without the expected fierce pace battle, the race becomes more tactical and suits horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina. This levels the playing field significantly and brings more runners into contention late.

Miss DenverDefinite DreamWhatyouwaitingforCawthorne Cracker

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Alba Crus was declared a non-runner, reducing the pace pressure significantly and changing the entire tactical complexion of this contest

WATCH

Watch if Captain Cool and Whatyouwaitingfor engage in an early speed duel, as both will be vulnerable to late closers in the final furlong

WATCH

Intenzo's tendency to race too freely could negate his tactical advantage if he gets involved in the early pace battle despite his hold-up style

NOTE

Definite Dream's 314-day absence makes him very hard to assess, watch for early signs of fitness or ring rustiness under Brendan Powell

NOTE

Miss Denver's quick 11-day turnaround following her recent Stratford run could indicate either peak fitness or potential fatigue setting in

3:35 — Deryck Baker Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle

3m2½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

I Am The Moon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Dunaden Island led; the map had I Am The Moon in front.

Jena d'Oudairies won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

I Am The Moon

Prominent · 1

Mahon Falls

Midfield · 2

Jena d'OudairiesDunaden Island

Hold Up · 1

All Inn Hand

I Am The Moon will lead from the outset with no other confirmed front-runners in this small field of five mares. Jena d'Oudairies, Dunaden Island and Mahon Falls are all prominent racers who will track the leader in behind, while All Inn Hand as the sole hold-up performer will be dropped out the back early. The sustainable pace set by I Am The Moon without early pressure will allow the prominent racers to travel comfortably and launch their challenges turning for home. This race shape strongly favours the prominent racers who can sit handy and pounce, rather than the lone leader or the hold-up horse who faces a tactical disadvantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Racers Dominate

65% probability

If I Am The Moon sets a steady pace without being harassed early

The prominent trio of Jena d'Oudairies, Dunaden Island and Mahon Falls get the perfect trip tracking the leader before mounting their challenges. All Inn Hand from the back faces too much to do against runners who've had easier passages.

Jena d'OudairiesMahon FallsDunaden IslandI Am The Moon

Leader Kicks Clear Late

20% probability

If I Am The Moon quickens approaching the final flight and finds extra reserves

Having travelled smoothly out front, I Am The Moon finds another gear when the prominent racers try to challenge and holds them at bay. The good ground and lack of early pressure plays to the leader's stamina reserves.

I Am The MoonJena d'OudairiesMahon FallsAll Inn Hand

Hold-Up Horse Sweeps By

10% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes crawling throughout

All Inn Hand benefits from an exceptionally slow gallop that allows Sean Bowen to produce a devastating late run from the rear. The prominent racers get caught flat-footed by the lack of pace and cannot respond to the hold-up challenge.

All Inn HandJena d'OudairiesI Am The MoonMahon Falls

Pace Collapses Sprint Finish

5% probability

If I Am The Moon goes too slowly and the field bunches up turning in

The race becomes a sprint from the last flight with all five runners still in contention. Superior class and finishing speed becomes paramount rather than tactical positioning throughout the race.

Jena d'OudairiesAll Inn HandMahon FallsI Am The Moon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

All Inn Hand could be trapped at the back if the pace quickens unexpectedly and may struggle to make ground up in time

WATCH

I Am The Moon's stamina reserves after 36 days off - if the prominent racers pressure early, the leader could fold quickly

NOTE

Dunaden Island's stepping up in trip with an inexperienced jockey could lead to positioning errors or stamina questions

WATCH

Jena d'Oudairies has history of being unreliable despite ability - watch for any market confidence

NOTE

The good to firm ground is faster than some recent runs - watch which horses handle the surface change best

4:05 — William Austin 50 Year Celebration Mares' Handicap Chase (Queen Boudicca Mares' Chase Series Qual')

2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Ballyhiho to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Little Wren led; the map had Ballyhiho in front.

A Little Something won at 1.62 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ballyhiho

Prominent · 2

Pure SeductionA Little Something

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Little WrenMiss Fedora

Ballyhiho represents the sole confirmed front-runner with lead preference, meaning she'll dictate terms from the outset without early pressure. A Little Something and Pure Seduction both show prominent tendencies but are more likely to track than challenge for the early lead. With Miss Fedora and Little Wren both hold-up performers, the pace will be measured through the early stages before quickening significantly from the second-last fence. This sustainable gallop followed by a sharp injection of pace heavily favours the prominent runners who can position close enough to strike but avoid the front-runner's workload.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Ballyhiho gets an easy lead and stays strongly.

She controls every call without pressure, saving energy for a sustained kick from two out that the closers cannot match. Her recent form shows steady improvement and she thrives when setting her own fractions.

BallyhihoA Little SomethingPure SeductionMiss Fedora

Prominent Trackers Strike

35% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling allowing closers to get involved.

A Little Something or Pure Seduction can sit in perfect stalking positions before timing their runs to perfection as the race develops into a sprint. The lack of early pace nullifies Ballyhiho's tactical advantage and brings stamina into play.

A Little SomethingPure SeductionLittle WrenMiss Fedora

Hold-Up Horses Swoop

15% probability

If the early pace is stronger than expected with multiple horses pressing.

Miss Fedora and Little Wren benefit from a genuinely-run race that sets up perfectly for their closing kicks from off the pace. Their class advantage shows when the race becomes a true test of speed and stamina combined.

Miss FedoraLittle WrenA Little SomethingPure Seduction

Pace Collapse Chaos

5% probability

If Ballyhiho faces unexpected early pressure or makes jumping errors.

The race becomes messy with no clear tactical pattern, allowing any horse with clean jumping and good positioning to capitalize. Form and class become secondary to in-running luck and jockeyship.

Pure SeductionLittle WrenA Little SomethingMiss Fedora

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ballyhiho's jumping under pressure - any early mistakes will compromise her front-running tactics and open up the race completely.

WATCH

Pure Seduction's fitness after 52-day break - if she's ring-rusty the 5lb claiming jockey may struggle to get competitive position.

WATCH

Miss Fedora's attitude early on - her March pulled-up effort suggests confidence issues that could resurface if pressured.

NOTE

Little Wren's position turning in - she needs to be within striking distance despite hold-up style given the likely lack of pace.

NOTE

A Little Something's jumping rhythm - she's been consistent on good ground but needs to travel strongly to capitalize on tactical advantage.

4:35 — Boss & The Hoggs Live On The 30th May Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Mi Sueno to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mi Sueno led, as the map showed.

Prettylady won at 23.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mi Sueno

Prominent · 1

Reteti

Midfield · 4

Galactic JackPrettyladyTrooperBlazing Gaden

Hold Up · 2

A Good YompFrank Stamper

Mi Sueno will take them along from the front in this small field, likely getting an uncontested lead given his clear front-running style against seven hold-up/midfield runners. The pace will be steady rather than searching, allowing Mi Sueno to dictate terms through the early stages without pressure. However, Mi Sueno has a tendency to fade in the finish, which will set up a cavalry charge from the pack of hold-up horses in the home straight. This race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can finish strongly, as they'll get the perfect setup of a moderate early pace followed by a weakening leader.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Swamp Leader

60% probability

If Mi Sueno sets steady fractions and predictably weakens approaching the final flight

The patient hold-up horses will have plenty left in the tank for a sustained finish, overwhelming the tiring leader. Frank Stamper and A Good Yomp are perfectly positioned to exploit this tactical setup with their strong staying finishes.

Frank StamperA Good YompGalactic JackReteti

Prominent Horse Bridges Gap

20% probability

If Reteti tracks the pace more closely and avoids getting caught too far back

Reteti's prominent running style allows him to stay in touch with Mi Sueno while the others get further detached. When Mi Sueno weakens, Reteti can strike before the hold-up horses fully wind up their challenges.

RetetiFrank StamperMi SuenoGalactic Jack

Leader Finds Extra Resolve

12% probability

If Mi Sueno runs more resolutely than recent form suggests and doesn't fade as expected

His recent second at Taunton showed he can sustain his effort better when the pace isn't too strong. The hold-up horses may leave themselves too much to do if Mi Sueno keeps finding on the run-in.

Mi SuenoRetetiFrank StamperA Good Yomp

Pace Collapse Favours Closers

8% probability

If Mi Sueno goes too slow early and the race becomes a tactical crawl

The lack of pace pressure early on turns this into a sprint finish where the horses with the most natural speed will prevail. The proven faster horses like Frank Stamper and Galactic Jack benefit most from this tactical development.

Frank StamperGalactic JackA Good YompReteti

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mi Sueno's early pace-setting - if he goes too fast early he'll stop even more dramatically than usual in the finish

WATCH

A Good Yomp's recovery from his win just 2 days ago - quick turnarounds can significantly impact jumping horses' performance

WATCH

Reteti's fitness after 83 days off - his prominent style requires race sharpness to be effective against this field

NOTE

Frank Stamper's jumping under pressure - his hold-up style requires clean hurdling to maintain momentum in the finish

NOTE

Galactic Jack's ability to reproduce his Taunton third - that form gives him a concrete advantage over several of these rivals

5:05 — Ladies Day On Sunday 19th July Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m6½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Bagheera Ginge to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Bagheera Ginge led, as the map showed.

Bagheera Ginge won at 10.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bagheera Ginge

Prominent · 3

King RolyTapleyDiplomatic Ash

Midfield · 2

ArrycanGrillon De Monty

Hold Up · 2

JubilantOkavango Delta

Bagheera Ginge will dictate the gallop from the front, with King Roly, Tapley and several other prominent runners tracking close behind creating a competitive early pace. The sustained tempo over 2m6½f on good to firm ground will test stamina reserves in the closing stages. With multiple prominent runners pressuring the leader and no genuine hold-up horses except Jubilant and Okavango Delta, this becomes a test of who can quicken best from the pace. This race shape favours prominent runners who can track the gallop and have a turn of foot, rather than the front-runner or hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Prevail

45% probability

If King Roly, Tapley or Grillon De Monty track Bagheera Ginge perfectly and produce late kick

The sustained pace sets up perfectly for horses positioned second or third who can outstay the leader. King Roly's recent winning form and Tapley's class advantage become decisive factors.

King RolyTapleyGrillon De MontyArrycan

Front Runner Survives

30% probability

If Bagheera Ginge gets an uncontested lead and the pace becomes too steady early

The lack of early pressure allows the leader to conserve energy for a strong finish over this stamina-sapping trip. Twiston-Davies' tactical nous helps Bagheera Ginge repel late challenges from tired pursuers.

Bagheera GingeKing RolyTapleyOkavango Delta

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

15% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong with multiple prominent runners competing

Jubilant and Okavango Delta get the perfect setup as the pace-makers tie up in the final furlong. Their fresh finishing kicks prove superior to battle-weary leaders.

JubilantOkavango DeltaKing RolyBagheera Ginge

Outsider Takes Advantage

10% probability

If the favourites fail to settle or encounter trouble in running

Arrycan's new cheekpieces provide the needed improvement while others disappoint. The veteran's experience at the trip becomes crucial in a messy race.

ArrycanGrillon De MontyOkavango DeltaJubilant

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bagheera Ginge must handle the 210-day absence as any rustiness will be exposed by the competitive pace

WATCH

King Roly could get trapped behind horses if the pace becomes stop-start given his prominent running style

NOTE

Jubilant needs to overcome his recent poor form to justify the hold-up tactics that this race shape could favour

WATCH

Grillon De Monty faces a fitness test after nearly seven months off despite his course-winning credentials

NOTE

Tapley's inexperienced jockey Isabelle Ryder must judge the pace perfectly from a prominent position

5:35 — Family Day On Sunday 12th July Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB)

2m½f · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners

No obvious leaderHISTORIC

How it ran

Lightsoutandaway and Mac's Max led.

Bound For Glory won at 2.38 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 0

None

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 4

ScottoLightsoutandawayMac's MaxAngel Of My Dreams

Hold Up · 2

Law Of The JungleBound For Glory

With no confirmed front runner in this small field, the early pace will likely be modest with Scotto and Lightsoutandaway potentially drifting forward by default. The hold-up quartet of Law Of The Jungle, Bound For Glory, Mac's Max and Angel Of My Dreams will be content to settle behind, creating a bunched field turning for home. This sets up a sprint finish from the final three furlongs where tactical positioning and late acceleration become crucial. This race shape strongly favours horses with proven finishing kicks who can quicken off a steady pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Tactical Sprint Finish

55% probability

If the pace stays modest and the field remains bunched into the straight

The race becomes a test of pure finishing speed where horses like Lightsoutandaway and Mac's Max can unleash their best work. Bound For Glory's consistent form also suits this scenario where tactical speed matters more than stamina.

LightsoutandawayMac's MaxBound For GloryScotto

Scotto Controls Throughout

25% probability

If Scotto uses his class advantage to dictate from the front

His higher OR of 120 allows him to string out the field at his preferred tempo, making it difficult for the hold-up horses to close. Sean Bowen's tactical nous becomes crucial in judging the right moment to quicken.

ScottoLightsoutandawayLaw Of The JungleBound For Glory

Slow Pace Collapse

12% probability

If the early pace becomes crawling slow with no one willing to lead

The race turns into a messy scramble where positioning and luck in running become paramount over pure ability. Angel Of My Dreams could benefit from the addition of headgear in such a scenario.

Angel Of My DreamsLaw Of The JungleMac's MaxBound For Glory

Mac's Max Returns Fresh

8% probability

If Mac's Max shows significant improvement from his 162-day break

His promising debut form when second to a subsequent hurdle winner suggests untapped potential that could surface after the lengthy absence. The good ground conditions match his preferred surface from that encouraging Newcastle run.

Mac's MaxBound For GloryLightsoutandawayScotto

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mac's Max market support given his long absence - any significant shortening suggests stable confidence in his return

WATCH

Scotto's early positioning will reveal his running style and dictate the race tempo for this small field

NOTE

Angel Of My Dreams headgear changes taking effect early could signal improved focus and competitiveness

WATCH

Law Of The Jungle's jumping action after his Taunton pull-up - any signs of reluctance would be concerning

NOTE

Lightsoutandaway's positioning from his claimer - Freddie Mitchell's tactical decisions will shape his chance

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 17 May 2026.

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