2:10 — Watch On Racing TV Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m½f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners
Wicksey likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
High Aura led; the map had Wicksey in front.
Wicksey won at 6.50 — was held up, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Wicksey
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 3
High AuraSerragassoLucky Sevens
Hold Up · 2
Tiny RiotSudbury Hill
Wicksey is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will dictate terms from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop on good-to-firm ground over this 2m½f trip at Stratford. That uncontested pace-setting role creates a flat, even tempo that is likely to compress the field and minimise the advantage of a late finish, favouring horses who can travel prominently and pounce from a handy position. Sudbury Hill and Tiny Riot are the most credible closers with genuine hold-up credentials, while Lucky Sevens and Serragasso — both natural hold-up horses — have been pushed into the midfield mapping because this field holds more come-from-behind types than the race shape can accommodate in true rear positions, meaning they are unlikely to enjoy their preferred tactical berth. The race shape strongly favours a horse who can sit just off Wicksey's uncontested lead and produce a fluid jumping display, picking off the front-runner approaching the final flight under the fast ground.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Wicksey controls, closers ambush
69% probability
If Wicksey bowls along unchallenged and sets a fair but not punishing tempo, allowing a prominent-tracking horse to collar him late.
If Wicksey bowls along unchallenged and sets a fair but not punishing tempo, allowing a prominent-tracking horse to collar him late.
Tiny RiotSudbury HillWickseyHigh Aura
B
Wicksey front-runs, holds on
16% probability
If the tempo is even gentler than expected and no chaser has the pace to reel in a well-jumped front-runner on this fast surface.
If the tempo is even gentler than expected and no chaser has the pace to reel in a well-jumped front-runner on this fast surface.
WickseyHigh AuraSudbury HillTiny Riot
C
Hold-up horses land late
10% probability
If Wicksey goes off too fast or makes an error, stringing the field out and setting up a genuine staying test from three out.
If Wicksey goes off too fast or makes an error, stringing the field out and setting up a genuine staying test from three out.
Tiny RiotLucky SevensSerragassoSudbury Hill
D
Chaos — errors unsettle race
5% probability
If jumping mistakes by Wicksey disrupt the pace-setting plan and reshuffle the field mid-race.
If jumping mistakes by Wicksey disrupt the pace-setting plan and reshuffle the field mid-race.
High AuraLucky SevensSudbury HillTiny Riot
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Wicksey's jumping throughout — any error at a hurdle will remove the race's only pace anchor and completely reshape what follows, directly boosting horses positioned just behind.
WATCH
Lucky Sevens and Serragasso are both natural hold-up horses crowded into midfield by the race shape; if they fail to adapt and get caught in traffic turning for home, their chances evaporate even if the form says they should be competitive.
WATCH
High Aura is a complete unknown — Skelton debutants can be well-schooled and lightly raced juveniles sometimes show unexpected jumping talent; watch the market moves before the off for any indication of stable confidence.
NOTE
The good-to-firm ground (confirmed for this race in the going report) is a significant leveller — horses with flat-racing form on fast surfaces (Sudbury Hill, Tiny Riot, Lucky Sevens) hold an edge in ground suitability over those whose form is mainly on softer or artificial surfaces.
2:40 — Visit racingtv.com Handicap Hurdle
2m½f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners
Juan Bermudez likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Juan Bermudez led, as the map showed.
Playful Fox won at 3.75 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Juan Bermudez
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 3
PahlaviRetetiPlayful Fox
Hold Up · 2
KatherineUhtred Ragnarson
Juan Bermudez is the sole confirmed front-runner in this six-runner field and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, he is set to bowl along at his own rhythm on good-to-firm ground at Stratford over 2m½f — an unchallenged, sustainable gallop rather than a pressured slog. Katherine, Uhtred Ragnarson, Pahlavi, Reteti, and Playful Fox are all natural hold-up or rear-of-field horses, meaning the pace Juan Bermudez sets will be uncontested and metronomic, creating a steady tempo that keeps the race well within his control deep into the back straight. This shape strongly favours hold-up and late-finishing profiles — horses that can travel comfortably off a single honest pace and produce one clean finishing effort — but the redistribution note is critical: Pahlavi, Reteti, and Playful Fox are genuine hold-up operators who have been mapped to midfield purely because the map cannot accommodate five hold-up horses at the rear simultaneously, and their actual tactical positions in running are likely to be towards the back as normal. The race therefore shapes as a controlled-tempo, single-pacemaker contest where the winner is most likely to emerge from those hold-up horses launching off Juan Bermudez's back in the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Bermudez Dictates, Closers Pounce
66% probability
If Juan Bermudez controls a steady, uncontested gallop throughout and the hold-up horses get a clean run turning for home.
If Juan Bermudez controls a steady, uncontested gallop throughout and the hold-up horses get a clean run turning for home.
Uhtred RagnarsonRetetiPlayful FoxJuan Bermudez
B
Bermudez Steals It Uncontested
18% probability
If Juan Bermudez slows the pace sufficiently that the field is lulled into complacency and he kicks clear before hold-up horses can organise a response.
If Juan Bermudez slows the pace sufficiently that the field is lulled into complacency and he kicks clear before hold-up horses can organise a response.
Juan BermudezKatherineUhtred RagnarsonPahlavi
C
Hold-Up Horses Swamp The Field
10% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady enough that multiple hold-up runners produce finishing runs simultaneously and the race becomes a blanket sprint to the line.
If the pace is genuinely steady enough that multiple hold-up runners produce finishing runs simultaneously and the race becomes a blanket sprint to the line.
Playful FoxRetetiPahlaviUhtred Ragnarson
D
Pace Collapse, Form Reversal
6% probability
If the tempo collapses entirely and the hold-up horses fail to make meaningful headway, handing the race to a well-positioned prominent runner.
If the tempo collapses entirely and the hold-up horses fail to make meaningful headway, handing the race to a well-positioned prominent runner.
KatherineJuan BermudezPahlaviReteti
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Playful Fox: the Skelton yard's 11/26 strike rate in the past 14 days combined with Harry Skelton's tactical awareness could make this horse a significant threat if he gets the run of the race from his hold-up position in the straight.
WATCH
Watch Juan Bermudez's pace judgement leaving the back straight — if he quickens too early and sets a genuinely strong tempo, he risks emptying before the last and handing it to the hold-up horses; if he dawdles, he retains control.
WATCH
Watch Uhtred Ragnarson's fitness coming into this off 45 days absent — Alan King's runners can need a run after a break, and any greenness turning in could compromise his finishing effort despite the style suiting perfectly.
NOTE
Watch for traffic issues in the straight: with five hold-up horses converging on one pacemaker, crowding risks at the final hurdle are elevated — clean passage will be a key differentiator between the closers.
NOTE
Watch the actual in-running positions of Pahlavi and Reteti — both are true hold-up horses likely to drop to the rear despite their midfield map placement, and any failure to get cover could cause them to race less efficiently than their form suggests.
3:10 — Sun Racing The Home Of Racing Novices' Handicap Chase
2m3½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
A Little Something likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Catchim led; the map had A Little Something in front.
Gore Point won at 3.25 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
A Little Something
Prominent · 2
White RiotGore Point
Midfield · 2
No Mean FeatCitizen Jane
Hold Up · 2
CatchimKings Order
A Little Something is the confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rival willing to match strides from the front, is set to bowl along at a sustainable gallop and control tempo throughout the 2m3½f trip on good-to-firm ground at Stratford. Gore Point, White Riot and, to a lesser degree, Catchim will likely sit just off the leader in a compact group, meaning the race will be run at a measured but consistent pace rather than a searching test. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear — No Mean Feat and Citizen Jane are genuine closers who are effectively crowded into a midfield position in this shape, meaning neither will get the true patient run that suits them best. This configuration — a lone, uncontested leader at a controlled gallop — heavily favours prominent racers who can travel smoothly just behind the pace and pounce from a strong position turning in; genuine hold-up horses needing a truly fast tempo to unleash a late run are structurally disadvantaged.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Lead, Prominent Pounce
68% probability
If A Little Something dictates at a steady clip and the race truly develops into a one-pace test from the front.
If A Little Something dictates at a steady clip and the race truly develops into a one-pace test from the front.
A Little SomethingGore PointWhite RiotCatchim
B
Prominent Runner Outstays Leader
15% probability
If A Little Something's gallop is honest enough to set up a sustained battle from the home turn.
If A Little Something's gallop is honest enough to set up a sustained battle from the home turn.
Gore PointWhite RiotA Little SomethingCatchim
C
Hold-Up Horse Lates Through
11% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and leave closers with ground to make up in the straight.
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and leave closers with ground to make up in the straight.
CatchimNo Mean FeatCitizen JaneKings Order
D
Chaos — Falls, Errors Reshape Race
6% probability
If jumping errors or fallers disrupt the front-running pack and scramble the order.
If jumping errors or fallers disrupt the front-running pack and scramble the order.
Kings OrderNo Mean FeatCitizen JaneCatchim
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
A Little Something — if it jumps cleanly to the third fence and has clear air, the uncontested lead could prove almost impossible to peg back at this manageable pace on fast ground.
WATCH
White Riot — its jumping record (fall, pulled up) over fences needs monitoring early; a blunder at any of the first four fences would dramatically open the race up for the prominent group behind.
WATCH
Citizen Jane — going-to-firm conditions have never featured in its form, and after an 807-day layoff a markets drift in the ring would be a telling signal that connections have reservations.
NOTE
No Mean Feat — the 54-day break combined with the visor first-time headgear and a yard cold over 14 days creates a compound uncertainty flag; watch how it travels early to judge if there is any market confidence behind it.
NOTE
Gore Point — Sam Twiston-Davies taking over the ride is a jockey-switch upgrade worth tracking; if it jumps fluently and travels sweetly just off the pace through the first mile, it is the horse most structurally placed to exploit the controlled fractions.
3:40 — Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Novices' Handicap Hurdle
2m6f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Back To Cali likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Mc'flo and North Account led; the map had Back To Cali in front.
Slack Alice won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
0 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Back To Cali
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 4
VesaliusFrench DiabloMc'floAlex The Great
Hold Up · 2
Slack AliceNorth Account
Back To Cali is the sole confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner novices' handicap hurdle over 2m6f at Stratford on Good to Firm ground, and with no rival likely to seriously dispute the lead, he should control the gallop from the outset at a tempo entirely of his choosing. The remainder of the field — Slack Alice, Vesalius, Mc'flo, Alex The Great, French Diablo, and North Account — are all natural hold-up or wait-and-see types, meaning Back To Cali can dictate a sustainable, uncontested pace that suits a horse with stamina rather than raw speed. Four of those hold-up types (Vesalius, Mc'flo, Alex The Great, French Diablo) are redistributed to midfield on the map because there are simply too many rearward runners to all settle at the back; in practice, Mc'flo and French Diablo are the most likely to push forward and achieve a prominent pitch, while the others will be forced to find their way through from further back than ideal. This race shape — a lone, uncontested leader setting a measured pace — strongly favours hold-up horses with the class and stamina to close over the final two flights, and riders able to judge their run from off the pace in a small, slowly-run field.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Back To Cali Controls Unchallenged
65% probability
If Back To Cali is allowed to bowl along uncontested at a comfortable clip and the field settles tamely behind.
If Back To Cali is allowed to bowl along uncontested at a comfortable clip and the field settles tamely behind.
Slack AliceMc'floBack To CaliFrench Diablo
B
Slack Alice Pounces Late
16% probability
If Sean Bowen settles Slack Alice towards the rear and delivers a well-timed challenge between the last two hurdles.
If Sean Bowen settles Slack Alice towards the rear and delivers a well-timed challenge between the last two hurdles.
Slack AliceFrench DiabloVesaliusBack To Cali
C
Pace Quickens, Closers Shut Out
12% probability
If Back To Cali and one or two redistributed runners push the tempo higher in the back straight, stringing the field out.
If Back To Cali and one or two redistributed runners push the tempo higher in the back straight, stringing the field out.
Mc'floBack To CaliFrench DiabloSlack Alice
D
Hold-Up Cavalry Fails to Fire
7% probability
If the small field produces a muddling, stop-start pace that scrambles the hold-up horses' ability to find clear daylight.
If the small field produces a muddling, stop-start pace that scrambles the hold-up horses' ability to find clear daylight.
Alex The GreatVesaliusNorth AccountFrench Diablo
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Back To Cali's tempo is the race-shaper — if Harry Skelton gets away unchallenged and sets a truly steady clip, the hold-up horses in behind will need a sustained gallop to close, so watch whether he quickens early in the back straight or dawdles.
WATCH
Slack Alice is fitted with a visor for the first time — watch her keenness from the gate; if she over-races and burns her hold-up credentials early, the entire scenario built around her stamina advantage collapses.
WATCH
With four horses all wanting to be rearward in a seven-runner field, watch the early positioning battle between Vesalius, French Diablo, Mc'flo and Alex The Great — whoever secures a clean, unobstructed midfield berth will have a meaningful advantage over those forced wide or pocketed.
NOTE
North Account's 386-day absence and pull-up last time out makes him a significant safety flag — watch how he jumps the early hurdles, as a mistake or refusal would disrupt the following pack particularly if they are tightly grouped.
NOTE
French Diablo's hood is a first-time application — monitor how he loads and whether he settles in the early stages, as a young, hood-wearing horse with limited experience could unsettle the small field if he idles or races erratically near the rear.
4:10 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m6½f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners
Nickelforce likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Bagheera Ginge led; the map had Nickelforce in front.
Bagheera Ginge won at 8.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Nickelforce
Prominent · 1
She Is For Me Boys
Midfield · 1
Normofthenorth
Hold Up · 1
Bagheera Ginge
Nickelforce is the confirmed front-runner here and, in a field of only four, is likely to control proceedings from the outset at a measured, sustainable gallop over 2m6½f on good-to-firm ground at Stratford. She Is For Me Boys is a genuine prominent racer who will likely sit close behind Nickelforce, meaning the two will jointly dictate an honest but not brutal tempo. Bagheera Ginge is a confirmed hold-up type who will settle in rear and look to make ground in the final circuit, while Normofthenorth — a natural prominent runner — has been redistributed to midfield on the map because She Is For Me Boys is more likely to claim that second position ahead of it; the field holds more prominent types than can all secure their natural slot, and She Is For Me Boys looks best placed to get the position. A controlled, front-running gallop with one genuine hold-up horse closing from off the pace favours prominent racers who can track the leader and pounce at the final few fences, rather than a single deep closer needing a strong pace to reel in fresh legs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Nickelforce Controls And Stays
72% probability
If Nickelforce is allowed to dictate a true but uncontested gallop and the step up to 2m6½f on good-to-firm suits.
If Nickelforce is allowed to dictate a true but uncontested gallop and the step up to 2m6½f on good-to-firm suits.
NickelforceShe Is For Me BoysBagheera GingeNormofthenorth
B
Closer Pounces Late
14% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and Bagheera Ginge's hold-up style is rewarded.
If the early pace is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and Bagheera Ginge's hold-up style is rewarded.
Bagheera GingeShe Is For Me BoysNickelforceNormofthenorth
C
Front Pair Collide Late
10% probability
If She Is For Me Boys tracks Nickelforce closely throughout and outbattles the leader over the final two fences.
If She Is For Me Boys tracks Nickelforce closely throughout and outbattles the leader over the final two fences.
She Is For Me BoysNickelforceBagheera GingeNormofthenorth
D
Veteran Outfoxes Field
4% probability
If Normofthenorth, returning from 1,123 days off, recaptures its earlier form and slots into an unexpectedly forward position.
If Normofthenorth, returning from 1,123 days off, recaptures its earlier form and slots into an unexpectedly forward position.
NormofthenorthBagheera GingeShe Is For Me BoysNickelforce
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Nickelforce's preferred trip appears to be around 2m–2m1f based on its history — watch whether it begins to tie up after the second-last fence if the distance tests its stamina at this trip.
WATCH
Normofthenorth has been off for 1,123 days and any early exuberance from this veteran at the start could compromise its race and disrupt the front pair's rhythm.
WATCH
She Is For Me Boys and Nickelforce could race in close proximity for much of the trip — watch for any scrimmaging at early fences that may unsettle either runner given the small field and likely fast pace through the early part.
NOTE
Bagheera Ginge is the hold-up horse in a race that may not generate enough pace to fully suit — watch whether Sam Twiston-Davies opts to position her closer than typical if the gallop appears too sedate on the far side of the course.
NOTE
The going report confirms Good To Firm for this race (not Good as declared) — horses with a soft-ground profile or fitness concerns may find conditions sharper than they have recently encountered.
4:40 — Racing Again Tomorrow Evening Mares' Handicap Hurdle
2m½f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Lucy The Wire likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
A Tickatickatiming and Never Told Me led; the map had Lucy The Wire in front.
Roarin' Success won at 23.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
2 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Lucy The Wire
Prominent · 5
BasiletteBest NightNever Told MeA TickatickatimingNorthern Rose
Midfield · 4
Shing ShillaJukebox AnnieMiss FedoraHollysaway
Hold Up · 4
Roarin' SuccessCallin Baton RougeLittle Lady LucyDriving Miss d'Azy
Lucy The Wire is the sole confirmed front runner in this 14-runner mares' handicap hurdle over 2m½f on Good to Firm ground at Stratford, and with no genuine challenger for the lead she is likely to bowl along at a controlled, sustainable gallop rather than being harried into setting a scorching tempo. Behind her, Basilette, Best Night, Never Told Me, A Tickatickatiming and Northern Rose are the prominent-style runners who will attempt to race in the slipstream, creating a bunched pack through the early and middle stages. The field does contain more hold-up types than can realistically settle at the rear — Shing Shilla, Jukebox Annie and Miss Fedora are genuine closers mapped to midfield simply because there is no room for them at the back of such a competitive field, meaning their true finishing positions may not reflect their natural patterns. A single, unhurried leader dictating a fair but unforced gallop on fast ground over this trip is a recipe that historically rewards horses who travel prominently behind the pace and produce a clean jump at the last — prominent-to-midfield runners with sound jumping and proven form on good-to-firm going are best placed here, while the redistributed closers will find it harder to mount a genuine late challenge if the pace is only modest.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Lucy Controls, Prominent Pounce
54% probability
If Lucy The Wire dictates an unchallenged, controlled gallop and the race sets up as a staying-on contest from two out.
If Lucy The Wire dictates an unchallenged, controlled gallop and the race sets up as a staying-on contest from two out.
Best NightBasiletteNever Told MeNorthern Rose
B
Pace Collapses, Midfield Strike
21% probability
If Lucy The Wire's gallop is too slow and the field concertinas, allowing midfield horses to produce sustained runs from three out.
If Lucy The Wire's gallop is too slow and the field concertinas, allowing midfield horses to produce sustained runs from three out.
Callin Baton RougeRoarin' SuccessLittle Lady LucyA Tickatickatiming
C
Front Runner Galvanises, Wire Wins
16% probability
If Lucy The Wire finds her true front-running form and quickens clear from the second-last, making it a test of pure stamina.
If Lucy The Wire finds her true front-running form and quickens clear from the second-last, making it a test of pure stamina.
Lucy The WireBasiletteBest NightNever Told Me
D
Closers' Late Surge
9% probability
If the gallop is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and the true hold-up horses get back to their natural positions.
If the gallop is genuinely strong enough to string the field out and the true hold-up horses get back to their natural positions.
Jukebox AnnieLittle Lady LucyShing ShillaMiss Fedora
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Lucy The Wire's gallop control is the central variable — watch whether Jonathan Burke allows her to bowl along in front or whether any prominent horse challenges her for the lead early, as that will determine whether the pace is genuinely compressed or begins to string the field out.
WATCH
Basilette's 230-day absence (returned 16 days ago) and 168lbs top weight alongside her age (7) mean fatigue in the closing stages is a real risk despite her recent placed effort — watch her jumping from three out.
WATCH
Best Night's hold on a prominent pitch will be tested immediately at the start given the number of runners also seeking a prominent position — if she gets crowded out in the early stages she could find herself racing further back than ideal, which would undermine her chance.
NOTE
The cluster of hold-up horses (Shing Shilla, Jukebox Annie, Miss Fedora, Hollysaway) all being pushed out of their natural positions means the closing stages may look messy — watch for horses appearing to finish with running but having nowhere to go through the pack on the flat Stratford straight.
NOTE
Little Lady Lucy's hood headgear and sharp recent form (two wins from three on good ground) mean she is worth tracking from the outset — if she manages to settle towards the rear, she is one of the more genuine late runners in a field where most closers are not true closers.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.