Archive›Stratford · 30 May 2026

Stratford

30 May 2026 · 7 races

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5:50 — Julie Satterley Waving Goodbye To 49 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m2½f · Good · NOV · 7 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Machete Beach led; the map had Usyk and Maskarvel and At Sunrise in front.

Machete Beach won at 2.62 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

UsykMaskarvelAt Sunrise

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

La Fille FridayJa Klipdrift

Hold Up · 2

Take The BoatMachete Beach

Usyk, Maskarvel, and At Sunrise will all want the lead, creating a strong gallop from the start over this stamina-testing 2m2½f trip. The three confirmed front-runners will ensure a genuine pace that should suit those who can settle and finish, particularly on good to firm ground that will quicken the tempo further. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses like Machete Beach and Take The Boat who can capitalize on the inevitable pace collapse, while the speed horses will likely burn each other out in a sustained battle.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Prosper

65% probability

If the three front-runners go too hard early and compromise each other

The strong pace will set up perfectly for Machete Beach and Take The Boat to close late when the leaders tire. Machete Beach's proven class and recent winning form gives him the edge over Take The Boat who brings useful flat speed to the discipline.

Machete BeachTake The BoatMaskarvelJa Klipdrift

Front-Runner Survives Battle

20% probability

If one of the pace-setters can dictate terms and see off rivals

Maskarvel's consistent form and hurdles experience could allow him to control the tempo better than Usyk or At Sunrise. His clear second last time out suggests he has the class to make all or win from the front.

MaskarvelUsykMachete BeachLa Fille Friday

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If all three leaders go impossibly fast and tie up badly

The race becomes a crawl in the final furlong with any horse with energy left able to win. The lightly raced newcomers Ja Klipdrift and La Fille Friday could benefit from their freshness if they can stay in touch.

Ja KlipdriftLa Fille FridayTake The BoatMachete Beach

Sustained Gallop Throughout

5% probability

If the pace-setters moderate early but maintain strong tempo

The race becomes a true test of stamina with only the most genuine stayers lasting home. At Sunrise's modest form suggests he cannot sustain the required pace, leaving Maskarvel as the most likely survivor.

MaskarvelMachete BeachUsykTake The Boat

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Usyk's fitness after 267 days off could see him fold quickly despite his front-running style

WATCH

Tom Gretton's stable form is poor at 0/4 in 14 days, affecting both debutants Ja Klipdrift and La Fille Friday

NOTE

Machete Beach's 25-day freshening break could have him perfectly primed for this stamina test

WATCH

The three confirmed front-runners could engage in a pace duel that destroys all their chances

NOTE

Take The Boat's switch from flat to hurdles brings unknown jumping ability despite her useful speed credentials

6:20 — Happy 70th Birthday Rich Wilding Mares' Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m½f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Kottayam likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Little Lady Lucy and Noble Miss led; the map had Kottayam in front.

Stellarmasterpiece won at 2.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kottayam

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 6

Little Lady LucyBlue SiamBurgeonFor Love Of BeautyNoble MissStellarmasterpiece

Hold Up · 1

Liasse d'Argent

Little Lady Lucy appears the most likely pace-setter given her recent front-running success at Wincanton, with Kottayam potentially offering some early company despite her hold-up classification. The sustained pace should be manageable rather than searching, as there's limited genuine early speed in this field. With most runners carrying hold-up styles and needing to be produced late, the race will likely develop into a tactical affair where positioning becomes crucial in the straight. This shape favours horses who can travel prominently and have the pace to quicken when it matters, disadvantaging pure hold-up horses who rely on strong gallops.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Travellers Dominate

45% probability

If Little Lady Lucy sets steady fractions and prominent runners can track her easily

The moderate pace allows horses like Stellarmasterpiece and Little Lady Lucy to save energy for a decisive move, while pure hold-up types get caught flat-footed when the tempo lifts approaching the final flight. Those who positioned themselves within striking distance can capitalise on their superior tactical position.

Little Lady LucyStellarmasterpieceKottayamLiasse d'Argent

Late Rally Succeeds

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong or Little Lady Lucy goes too fast

The searching gallop sets up perfectly for closers who can produce sustained finishes, with front-runners paying for their early exertions. Hold-up horses like Stellarmasterpiece and Kottayam benefit from the pace collapse to deliver their trademark late charges.

StellarmasterpieceKottayamBlue SiamLittle Lady Lucy

Front Runner Wires Field

15% probability

If Little Lady Lucy dominates from the front with no serious challenges

Her proven front-running ability and recent Wincanton success translates perfectly as she controls fractions throughout and kicks clear approaching the last. The lack of genuine pace pressure allows her to dictate terms completely, with hold-up horses unable to bridge the gap she creates in the straight.

Little Lady LucyBlue SiamStellarmasterpieceNoble Miss

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If multiple horses commit early trying to track Little Lady Lucy or challenge for the lead

The unexpectedly strong gallop leaves most runners struggling in the final furlong, creating opportunities for unconsidered outsiders with fresh legs. Horses who settled furthest back and avoided the early battles can pick up the pieces as others tie up.

For Love Of BeautyBurgeonNoble MissLiasse d'Argent

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Little Lady Lucy's early pace-setting will be crucial - if she goes too fast she'll set it up for closers despite her recent front-running success

WATCH

Stellarmasterpiece needs a strong gallop to be effective but returns from a 129-day break which could blunt her finishing kick

NOTE

Noble Miss sports first-time blinkers after poor form but Jamie Gambin's 7lb claim may not be enough to compensate for her struggles

WATCH

Kottayam's form has been inconsistent and she's switching yards to Dave Roberts with limited recent runners, making her reliability questionable

NOTE

Blue Siam and Burgeon both have new headgear arrangements which could signal connections expect improved performances

6:50 — Julie Satterley 50th Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle

2m2½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Hope Rising to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Juan Bermudez led; the map had Hope Rising in front.

Juan Bermudez won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Hope Rising

Prominent · 2

In The AirForget The Way

Midfield · 1

Juan Bermudez

Hold Up · 1

Half A Chance

Hope Rising will take this race on from the front with her confirmed leading style, setting what should be a manageable gallop over this extended 2m2½f trip. The prominent trio of In The Air, Forget The Way, and Juan Bermudez will track her closely but are unlikely to pressure the pace early given the small field size. Half A Chance as the sole hold-up horse will need Hope Rising to maintain a strong gallop to have something to aim at in the straight. This shape clearly favors the front-running and prominent horses who can control their own destiny rather than relying on pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hope Rising Controls All

45% probability

If Hope Rising maintains a steady tempo without being pressured early

She can dictate ideal fractions and has the class edge with three wins last season, while the lack of early pressure allows her to conserve energy for the finish. Her prominent rivals will struggle to peg back a horse who gets first run on them.

Hope RisingJuan BermudezForget The WayIn The Air

Prominent Takeover Late

30% probability

If the prominent trio apply sustained pressure from the home turn

Hope Rising may crack under the combined assault of three experienced handicappers tracking her every move. Juan Bermudez looks particularly dangerous given his three course and distance wins and recent neck defeat here.

Juan BermudezForget The WayIn The AirHope Rising

Irish Closer Strikes

15% probability

If Hope Rising sets genuine gallop and holds her kick to the straight

Half A Chance gets the strong pace he needs to unleash his finishing kick despite the extended absence. The hold-up style becomes a major weapon when the pace collapses in front of him.

Half A ChanceJuan BermudezHope RisingForget The Way

Pace Collapse Surprise

10% probability

If Hope Rising goes too slow and the field bunches approaching the straight

The race becomes a sprint finish where jockey claims and trainer form matter more than pure ability. This chaotic finish could throw up any result from the tight-knit field.

In The AirHalf A ChanceForget The WayJuan Bermudez

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Hope Rising could get an uncontested lead if the prominent trio are too respectful early and allow her to dictate soft fractions

WATCH

Juan Bermudez has home advantage with three course wins and Lilly Pinchin's 7lb claim makes him effectively the top-rated horse

NOTE

Half A Chance needs Hope Rising to maintain strong gallop throughout as the sole closer in a pace-heavy field

WATCH

Forget The Way has the fitness advantage with his recent Warwick run and Jonathan Burke's 11% strike rate for the James Owen yard

NOTE

In The Air could outrun his odds if the Chepstow run has blown away the cobwebs from his 49-day break

7:20 — Farmers Fresh Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

3m3½f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Imperial Alex likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ballynaheer led; the map had Imperial Alex in front.

Imperial Alex won at 3.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Imperial Alex

Prominent · 1

Ballynaheer

Midfield · 1

Esperti

Hold Up · 2

IvaneYes Day

Imperial Alex will set a modest gallop from the front with no other genuine pace-setters in this small field. Ballynaheer may track him closely given his prominent style, but the overall tempo will be sedate through the early stages. The lack of pace pressure means the race will develop into a sprint from the last mile, heavily favouring the hold-up horses who can produce late kicks. This shape strongly benefits Ivane, Yes Day, and Esperti who all prefer to come from off the pace in small-field tactical affairs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Imperial Alex sets his usual steady gallop without pressure from Ballynaheer

The race becomes a tactical crawl until the business end, perfectly suiting the three hold-up specialists who can time their challenges. Esperti and Ivane have the class to exploit this scenario with their proven finishing kicks over this trip.

EspertiIvaneYes DayImperial Alex

Imperial Alex Sustains Lead

20% probability

If Imperial Alex maintains his advantage and the hold-up horses leave their runs too late

His recent neck defeat at Ffos Las proves his stamina over 3m, and without serious pace pressure he can dictate terms. Ballynaheer's prominent style could help him track the leader and benefit from the solid gallop.

Imperial AlexBallynaheerEspertiIvane

Ballynaheer Forces Pace

12% probability

If the 7-year-old decides to press Imperial Alex early and create a stronger gallop

This would stretch the field and potentially find out the stamina of some rivals over this extended trip. Esperti's recent form suggests he handles a true test best, while Yes Day might struggle with the sustained pressure.

EspertiImperial AlexBallynaheerIvane

Collapse of Favourites

3% probability

If both Esperti and Ivane fail to reproduce their recent form or encounter jumping issues

Yes Day could sneak through despite his poor recent record, particularly with first-time blinkers sharpening his focus. Imperial Alex would benefit most from a diminished field given his front-running style.

Yes DayImperial AlexBallynaheerEsperti

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Imperial Alex's jumping - any early mistakes could hand the initiative to Ballynaheer and change the entire complexion of the race

WATCH

Yes Day's response to first-time blinkers in the early stages as poor headway could leave him with too much to do in a slowly-run race

NOTE

Esperti's position turning for home as Sean Bowen needs to time his challenge perfectly if the pace is steady throughout

WATCH

Ivane's fitness after 100 days off as any signs of rustiness could be costly in what may become a sprint finish

NOTE

The pace through the first mile as anything faster than steady would significantly alter the finishing order

7:50 — Owen Thomas Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m1f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rocks Up Late led, as the map showed.

Rocks Up Late won at 3.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

DelpotroBobbarelliRocks Up Late

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

In This WorldTurpin Gold

Delpotro, Bobbarelli, and Rocks Up Late will set a fierce gallop from the start, with Delpotro likely to dictate from the front given his front-running style and stamina limitations at this trip. The sustained pace over 2m1f will test stamina reserves, particularly as three confirmed leaders battle for position early. In This World and Turpin Gold will need to pick up the pieces from behind as the pace collapses. This strong early gallop clearly favours hold-up horses who can conserve energy and finish strongly when the front-runners tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runners Collapse Late

55% probability

If the three leaders go too fast early and compound each other's pace

The sustained battle between Delpotro, Bobbarelli and Rocks Up Late will drain their stamina reserves over the final 4-5 furlongs. In This World can capitalise from his hold-up position to sweep past tired leaders approaching the last.

In This WorldTurpin GoldDelpotroRocks Up Late

Delpotro Controls Throughout

25% probability

If Delpotro can dictate fractions and see off his pace rivals

By establishing an early lead and managing the tempo better than his front-running rivals, Delpotro can maintain enough in reserve. His class advantage over this field shows when the others fold approaching the final fence.

DelpotroIn This WorldRocks Up LateBobbarelli

Rocks Up Late Returns Fresh

12% probability

If Rocks Up Late's wind surgery and 193-day break pays dividends

The extended absence could have refreshed Rocks Up Late completely, allowing him to outbattle the other front-runners. His four wins over fences last season show his ability when right, and the wind operation addresses his main weakness.

Rocks Up LateDelpotroIn This WorldBobbarelli

Turpin Gold Debuts Successfully

8% probability

If Turpin Gold's chase debut benefits from his hurdles class

The 10-year-old's four hurdle wins and fresh legs after 187 days could see him adapt quickly to fences. His hold-up style perfectly suits the expected pace collapse, though the debut over fences remains a significant unknown.

Turpin GoldIn This WorldDelpotroRocks Up Late

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Delpotro gets an easy lead early as his class could tell if he avoids a pace battle

WATCH

Monitor Turpin Gold's jumping on chase debut as any novicey errors will end his chances from the back

NOTE

Check for market moves on Rocks Up Late as any significant support would suggest the wind surgery has worked

WATCH

Watch how Bobbarelli settles early as his front-running style may force him into the pace battle

NOTE

Observe In This World's position turning in as he needs the leaders to come back to him significantly

8:20 — Happy 70th Birthday Steve Cotton Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Lacrima likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mix Of Clover led; the map had Lacrima in front.

Gateau De Miel won at 3.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Lacrima

Prominent · 1

Mix Of Clover

Midfield · 1

Boom Boom

Hold Up · 2

Two To TangoGateau De Miel

Lacrima will force the pace from the front with his prominent style, though his recent poor British form and tendency to fade in finishes suggests he won't sustain a strong gallop. Mix Of Clover may press from prominent position but returns from a 200-day break which undermines his early pace threat. The three hold-up horses (Two To Tango, Gateau De Miel, Boom Boom) will track behind what should be a moderate tempo. This tactical setup strongly favours the hold-up runners who can exploit Lacrima's expected capitulation and have time to organize their finishing kicks.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Lacrima sets modest fractions and fades as expected in the straight

The three hold-up runners get perfect conditions to time their runs and sweep past the weakening pace-setter. Two To Tango and Gateau De Miel benefit most from having recent race fitness and proven form at this track.

Two To TangoGateau De MielMix Of CloverBoom Boom

Prominent Pair Collapse

20% probability

If both Lacrima and Mix Of Clover struggle with fitness/form issues early

Boom Boom gets an uncontested lead through moderate fractions and holds on despite his own layoff concerns. His course form gives him the edge over the other hold-up runners in a tactical finish.

Boom BoomTwo To TangoGateau De MielMix Of Clover

Mix Of Clover Survives

10% probability

If Mix Of Clover's class overcomes his 200-day absence and he stays prominent throughout

The 12-year-old's experience allows him to judge the pace better than Lacrima and he outstays the hold-up horses. His summer jumping background suits these conditions despite the lengthy break.

Mix Of CloverTwo To TangoGateau De MielBoom Boom

Lacrima Shocks

5% probability

If Lacrima's step up to 2m5f transforms his stamina and he removes blinkers

The trip extension allows him to settle better and avoid his usual fade, catching the hold-up horses napping. This requires a complete reversal of his recent British form pattern.

LacrimaTwo To TangoMix Of CloverGateau De Miel

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Lacrima's early pace-setting - if he goes too slow the hold-up horses get perfect conditions to pounce

WATCH

Mix Of Clover's jumping early on - his 200-day break could show in rusty technique over the first few fences

WATCH

Two To Tango's position turning for home - needs to be handy to use his superior fitness advantage

NOTE

Boom Boom's movement through the field - any signs of ring-rustiness will end his chances quickly

NOTE

Gateau De Miel's response to pressure - stable debut runners often need the run regardless of ability

8:50 — Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Handicap Hurdle

2m6f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lion Of The Desert led; the map had American Trio and Miss Tiara and Great d'Ange in front.

American Trio won at 9.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

American TrioMiss TiaraGreat d'Ange

Prominent · 1

Shesonnet

Midfield · 3

ParikarmaShes All PrideMasonbrook Meadow

Hold Up · 3

Tao EnkiRoxboro RiverLion Of The Desert

American Trio, Miss Tiara, and Great d'Ange will ensure a strong early gallop over this extended 2m6f trip at Stratford. American Trio showed pace when winning his seller at Exeter and will want to use his early speed, while Miss Tiara has been stepping up in trip and naturally goes forward. The sustained tempo will stretch the field and test stamina reserves in the closing stages. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay the trip and finish strongly, particularly those proven over similar distances.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Gallop Suits Closers

65% probability

If the three front-runners maintain a genuine pace throughout

The strong tempo will set up perfectly for patient hold-up performers with proven stamina. Late-running types like Lion Of The Desert and Tao Enki can pick off tired leaders in the final furlong.

Lion Of The DesertTao EnkiRoxboro RiverMasonbrook Meadow

Pace Collapses Late

20% probability

If the early leaders go too fast and tie up significantly

American Trio or Miss Tiara could steal it if they get an easier lead than expected when rivals drop away. The pace-setters survive their own early exertions when others fail to sustain their challenge.

American TrioMiss TiaraShesonnetLion Of The Desert

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Shesonnet can track the pace and time her challenge perfectly

Her recent Warwick win suggests she's found her level and the prominent position allows her to avoid trouble. She can strike when the leaders weaken but before the hold-up horses fully wind up.

ShesonnetAmerican TrioLion Of The DesertTao Enki

Outsider Benefits Chaos

3% probability

If the pace is extreme and causes multiple fallers or mistakes

A big-priced hold-up horse like Parikarma gets a dream scenario when better-fancied rivals make errors. The veteran can use her experience to avoid trouble and capitalize on others' misfortunes.

ParikarmaMasonbrook MeadowShes All PrideRoxboro River

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

American Trio and Miss Tiara could set unsustainable fractions that compromise their finishing kicks and set up the closers perfectly

WATCH

Tao Enki needs the first-time cheekpieces to have the same positive effect they showed at Hereford to be competitive

NOTE

Great d'Ange may struggle to justify favoritism given his poor recent form for current connections

WATCH

Shesonnet's 26-day break could blunt her edge despite her impressive Warwick victory last time out

NOTE

Lion Of The Desert must prove his Ffos Las form translates to this stiffer track and stronger company

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 30 May 2026.

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