1:52 — Marion Gibson Brown Memorial - Irish EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB/IRE Inc') (Div I)
5f · Good · CLS4 · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
2:23 — Marion Gibson Brown Memorial - Irish EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB/IRE Inc') (Div II)
5f · Good · CLS4 · 11 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:00 — Metaxas Handicap
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Faeberon likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Blackisthenewblack led; the map had Faeberon in front.
Caraway won at 7.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Faeberon
Prominent · 2
Sweet LoveJambearee
Midfield · 5
GemicalCarawayRaven's ViewMy Dad FrankDue To Shine
Hold Up · 3
BlackisthenewblackBoilermakerManbearpig
Faeberon is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and will likely get an uncontested lead, setting a manageable tempo over this 1m4f trip. With most runners preferring hold-up tactics (Blackisthenewblack, Boilermaker, Caraway, Manbearpig, Raven's View, Gemical, Due To Shine, My Dad Frank), the pace will be moderate through the middle sections. Sweet Love and Jambearee may press but lack the tactical speed to create genuine pressure early. This sustainable pace scenario strongly favours prominent runners and those with proven finishing kicks from mid-division, while pure hold-up horses may find insufficient pace to close into.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Lead Holds
45% probability
If Faeberon gets a soft lead without early pressure from Sweet Love or Jambearee
The pace becomes too slow to set up the back-markers, allowing prominent runners to control the finish with horses like Faeberon and any forward-positioned rivals holding sway. Late closers like Boilermaker and Caraway find insufficient tempo to unleash their kicks.
FaeberonSweet LoveBlackisthenewblackJambearee
B
Moderate Pace Suits Closers
30% probability
If Sweet Love or Jambearee apply genuine early pressure to Faeberon creating honest fractions
The increased tempo stretches the field properly, setting up the race for horses with proven finishing ability positioned in mid-division. Blackisthenewblack and Boilermaker benefit most from the stronger gallop.
BlackisthenewblackBoilermakerCarawayFaeberon
C
Tactical Speed Decides
15% probability
If the pace becomes stop-start with multiple horses trying to get positions turning for home
The race becomes a sprint finish where horses with tactical pace and good recent form have the edge over those returning from breaks. Blackisthenewblack's recent win and Caraway's consistency become crucial factors.
BlackisthenewblackCarawaySweet LoveDue To Shine
D
Outsider Ambush
10% probability
If the favourites fail to handle the step up in trip or tactical demands
Long-absent horses like Manbearpig or improving types like Due To Shine capitalize on a muddled pace scenario. The moderate tempo and competitive handicap mark allows unexposed or returning horses to outrun their odds.
ManbearpigDue To ShineRaven's ViewGemical
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Sweet Love or Jambearee fail to press Faeberon early - this will create an unsustainably slow pace that negates the hold-up horses' chances
WATCH
Monitor Blackisthenewblack's position turning for home - if caught too far back the race may not develop the strong pace needed for closers
NOTE
Observe Manbearpig and Gemical for market confidence - both returning from breaks under Rebecca Menzies and any support suggests stable expects improvement
WATCH
Check Boilermaker's early positioning - needs to be handy enough to capitalize if the pace quickens but not so prominent to negate finishing kick
NOTE
Watch for any interference or trouble in running given the preponderance of hold-up horses likely to be bunched turning for home
3:37 — Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Law Of Average to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Counsel led; the map had Law Of Average in front.
Right And Exact won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Law Of Average
Prominent · 7
CounselCastanRight And ExactEmerald HarmonyCurious RoverCall To ActionEquity Law
Midfield · 5
South ParadeGlory FighterBrazilian BelleTees AggregatesAlbegone
Hold Up · 5
MukerTiriacPixie DivaAl HussarChangeofmind
Law Of Average is the sole confirmed front-runner and should get an easy lead in this large field, with Glory Fighter the only other natural pace-setter but more tactical than aggressive. The prominent runners like Right And Exact, Castan, Equity Law and Emerald Harmony will sit behind but none are pace-forcers, allowing Law Of Average to dictate terms. With 18 runners over 5f at Thirsk, the pace will be steady early before quickening, creating a tactical affair where position and finishing kick matter more than raw speed. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses and those with tactical speed who can position well and produce late runs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Leader Dominates
45% probability
If Law Of Average gets soft fractions and isn't pressed early
The pace becomes too slow for the field to reel in and Law Of Average kicks clear in the final furlong like at Bath last time. Front-runners and prominent racers benefit from the lack of early pressure while hold-up horses get caught too far back in the sprint.
Law Of AverageGlory FighterRight And ExactEquity Law
B
Late Charge Prevails
35% probability
If the pace is steady enough for closers to make ground but honest enough to string out the field
The hold-up horses with class get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks in the final 1.5f. Call To Action and Al Hussar come with strong runs while Brazilian Belle finds gaps from the back.
Call To ActionAl HussarBrazilian BellePixie Diva
C
Prominent Tactical Winner
15% probability
If Right And Exact or Equity Law track the leader perfectly and pounce at the right moment
The winner comes from just off the pace, getting first run on Law Of Average while the hold-up horses meet traffic problems in the large field. Positioning proves more valuable than a finishing kick in a messy sprint finish.
Right And ExactEquity LawEmerald HarmonyCastan
D
Pace Collapse Shock
5% probability
If Law Of Average goes too slow early and multiple horses challenge simultaneously in the final 2f
The race becomes a cavalry charge with the entire field still in contention turning for home, leading to a blanket finish where any horse can win. Even unfancied runners like Changeofmind or South Parade could nick it in the chaos.
ChangeofmindSouth ParadeTiriacTees Aggregates
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Law Of Average must be monitored for how easily he gets the lead - if pressed early his chance diminishes significantly
WATCH
Watch the stalls for Tees Aggregates who has starting issues, and Tiriac who has been slowly away recently
NOTE
Call To Action with blinkers on for second run back could be primed for big effort having finished strong last time
WATCH
Brazilian Belle returning after 39-day break needs to show early sharpness in this competitive sprint handicap
NOTE
Glory Fighter at 10 years old making the pace could set this up perfectly if he can sustain his gallop
4:12 — Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
Pink Azalea to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Military Leader led; the map had Pink Azalea in front.
Military Leader won at 4.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Pink Azalea is the only confirmed front-runner in this field, meaning she can dictate terms without early pressure from Selection and Ey Up Its Jazz who prefer prominent positions but aren't natural leaders. The pace will likely be steady through the early stages, allowing Pink Azalea to bowl along comfortably while the bulk of the field - including Hale End, Mission Command, Starliner, Harswell Ruby, Rajapour, and Rising Force - settle in behind as hold-up horses. With such a small pace contingent and so many hold-up runners, this race shape strongly favours those who can travel kindly in the early stages and have tactical speed, particularly the prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will hit the large pack of hold-up horses in the closing stages.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Running
45% probability
If Pink Azalea gets an easy lead and isn't pressed for pace
She can dictate comfortable fractions and prove hard to peg back despite her poor recent form, with the prominent runners best placed to track her. The hold-up brigade will struggle to make up ground against controlled fractions.
Pink AzaleaSelectionEy Up Its JazzRajapour
B
Prominent Tracker Pounce
35% probability
If Selection or Ey Up Its Jazz sit close to Pink Azalea and time their challenge perfectly
They get first run on the leader while avoiding the traffic problems that will engulf the hold-up horses in a bunched finish. Their tactical positioning proves decisive over the large group trying to come from behind.
SelectionEy Up Its JazzPink AzaleaHarswell Ruby
C
Hold-Up Hero Emerges
15% probability
If the pace becomes genuinely strong or Pink Azalea stops quickly
The race opens up for a closer with a strong finishing kick who gets a clear run through. Recent winners Hale End, Rising Force or in-form Starliner could capitalise if they avoid trouble.
Hale EndRising ForceStarlinerRajapour
D
Pace Collapse Scramble
5% probability
If Pink Azalea goes too slowly and the field bunches up turning for home
It becomes a tactical mess with multiple runners challenging simultaneously in a sprint finish. The best handicapped horses on current form could sneak through if they get racing room.
Military LeaderMission CommandRavishing BeautyHarswell Ruby
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Pink Azalea getting a soft lead - if she bowls along unchallenged she could steal this despite poor recent form
WATCH
Selection's jumping from the gates - needs to be handy early to utilise her prominent style effectively
WATCH
Traffic problems in the home straight with nine hold-up runners likely to bunch up behind the leaders
NOTE
Rising Force and Starliner carrying momentum from recent wins but both drawn to overcome pace disadvantage
NOTE
Jockey bookings PJ McDonald on Ravishing Beauty and Jason Hart back on Pink Azalea suggesting stable confidence
4:47 — Sky Bet Club Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
City Of Poets likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Mr Professor led; the map had City Of Poets in front.
Empire Of Light won at 11.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
City Of Poets stands out as the most natural early leader, with Empirestateofmind, Zapphire, New Image, Hot Cash and Empire Of Light all showing prominent tendencies but likely to settle just behind. This creates a solid but not frantic early gallop over the mile trip at Thirsk, with the pace likely to be honest rather than cutthroat. The large contingent of hold-up horses including Oolong Poobong, Capital Guarantee, Frankies Dream, Impartiality, Leadenhall, Count Palatine and Mr Professor will be looking to pounce late. This race shape clearly favours the prominent runners who can track the pace and kick turning for home, avoiding both the pressure of making the running and the traffic problems that could engulf the back markers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Dominate
50% probability
If the pace remains honest but not slow, allowing trackers to position perfectly
City Of Poets and the prominent brigade get first run on the field while the hold-up horses struggle to make up ground in time. The honest gallop suits those with tactical speed who can quicken from handy positions.
New ImageEmpirestateofmindHot CashZapphire
B
Late Surge Succeeds
25% probability
If the early pace becomes slightly pedestrian or the leaders weaken
The hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash finishing kicks down the Thirsk straight. Those with proven stamina and closing ability capitalize on a slow-run race.
If City Of Poets gets an uncontested lead and the others fail to apply pressure
The lack of early pace pressure allows the leader to dictate terms and kick clear when it matters. Empire Of Light's front-running success adds credibility to this approach working.
City Of PoetsEmpire Of LightNew ImageEmpirestateofmind
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
10% probability
If the gallop becomes truly stop-start with multiple horses trying different tactics
The tactical battle becomes a lottery where positioning and luck matter more than ability. Those drawn well or with alert jockeys gain crucial advantages in a messy finish.
EsherannFrankies DreamCount PalatineMr Professor
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
City Of Poets could get an easy lead if the prominent horses are too respectful early, making him very hard to peg back
WATCH
Watch the hold-up horses for traffic problems in the straight as Thirsk can bottleneck with this many back markers
NOTE
Zapphire's return from 251 days off needs monitoring for fitness, despite her obvious class edge
WATCH
Count Palatine dropping back from his preferred 7f trip could see him finish too late over the mile
NOTE
Empire Of Light stepping back in trip after 1m2f wins may find the pace too sharp at this shorter distance
5:25 — Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap
7f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Lead contested: Sergeant Wilko v SunriseontheboyneHISTORIC
How it ran
Sergeant Wilko led, as the map showed.
Brighton Boy won at 9.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.
6 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Sergeant WilkoSunriseontheboyne
Prominent · 4
WestmorianSujetPersuasionBrighton Boy
Midfield · 4
GlenfinnanPatricia RZiggy's QueenWoodstock
Hold Up · 4
MisunderstoodPerfect PartAndesiteMudamer
Sergeant Wilko and Sunriseontheboyne will ensure an honest pace from the front, with both confirmed leaders unlikely to back down early. The prominent runners Persuasion, Sujet, and Brighton Boy should sit just off the pace, while the large contingent of hold-up horses including Mudamer, Andesite, and Woodstock will be relying on a strong gallop to set up their finishing kicks. With 7f at Thirsk providing ample time for the race to develop and the good ground maintaining stamina demands, this setup strongly favours horses that can race prominently and have something left for the finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Runners Prevail
65% probability
If the early pace is honest but not excessive between the two leaders
The prominent horses get the perfect trip tracking the leaders before striking in the final 2f, avoiding both the early burn-up and getting caught too far back in a big field. This tactical position proves decisive with runners like Persuasion and Sujet ideally placed.
PersuasionSujetBrighton BoyMudamer
B
Hold-Up Heroes Strike
20% probability
If the pace collapses mid-race with leaders tying up dramatically
The strong early pace falls apart leaving the race to the closers who get a perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks. Horses held up early can pick off the tiring pace-setters in the final furlong with fresher legs.
WoodstockAndesiteZiggy's QueenPerfect Part
C
Front Running Triumph
10% probability
If one leader gets a soft lead while the other fades early
The surviving pace-setter gets an uncontested lead and proves too tough to peg back despite the big field hunting them down. The tactical advantage of controlling the race tempo becomes decisive on good ground.
Sergeant WilkoSunriseontheboynePersuasionMudamer
D
Pace Carnage Chaos
5% probability
If both leaders go too hard and eliminate each other completely
The early battle becomes suicidal with both front runners tying up badly, creating a scramble finish among mid-division horses who avoided the early fireworks. Complete tactical chaos benefits those with most natural ability regardless of position.
MisunderstoodPerfect PartBrighton BoyGlenfinnan
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sergeant Wilko and Sunriseontheboyne must be monitored early as their pace battle could determine the entire race shape
WATCH
Patricia R returning after 252 days off represents a significant unknown despite her perfect course record
NOTE
Woodstock represents the in-form Ruth Carr stable and is well handicapped after his long losing sequence
WATCH
Westmorian's previous refusal to race and long absence makes him a potential non-runner on the day
NOTE
Perfect Part's headgear change could spark improvement in a horse who's been running consistently without winning
5:57 — Sky Bet Build A Bet Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners
Lead contested: Stormy Pearl v EldeyaarHISTORIC
How it ran
Eldeyaar led, as the map showed.
Run This Way won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
7 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Stormy PearlEldeyaar
Prominent · 7
GaneshaMaster DandySanbonaValsharahAngel Of EnglandCrocus TimeRun This Way
Stormy Pearl and Eldeyaar will dispute the early lead in this 17-runner handicap, with both having confirmed front-running styles and recent C&D form. Seven horses want prominent positions (Ganesha, Valsharah, Run This Way, Crocus Time, Master Dandy, Sanbona, Angel Of England) creating significant congestion and traffic problems turning for home. The honest early gallop from the two leaders combined with the prominent bottleneck will set up a strong pace that burns off the early speed. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can avoid the early scramble and finish with one sustained run.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-Up Horses Dominate
55% probability
If the prominent runners get tangled up 2f out as expected
The strong early pace from Stormy Pearl/Eldeyaar combined with the midrace traffic jam will perfectly set up the patient hold-up brigade. Horses like Dream Deal and Andalprofit can time their runs perfectly from the back.
Dream DealAndalprofitGemini StarSolar Biricz
B
Front Two Battle Home
25% probability
If Stormy Pearl and Eldeyaar get an uncontested lead and kick clear
Without serious early pressure, both leaders could still have enough left in the tank to hold off late challengers in a tactical finish. Stormy Pearl's second place behind Eldeyaar here last month suggests they're well matched.
EldeyaarStormy PearlRun This WayCrocus Time
C
Prominent Runner Profits
12% probability
If one prominent horse finds racing room when others get stopped
The pace will be strong enough to inconvenience most prominent runners, but whoever gets first run from that group could capitalize on the leaders' honest gallop. Crocus Time's C&D win and Master Dandy's recent form make them candidates.
Crocus TimeMaster DandyValsharahSanbona
D
Pace Collapses Completely
8% probability
If both leaders go too slow early fearing each other
A tactical crawl would completely change the complexion, turning it into a 2f sprint where the best turn of foot wins regardless of position. This seems unlikely given both leaders' aggressive styles but remains possible.
Run This WaySolar BiriczValsharahMaster Dandy
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Stormy Pearl and Eldeyaar must both jump cleanly as any early interference between the two pace-setters could completely change the race dynamic
WATCH
The prominent group of seven horses will create a cavalry charge effect entering the home turn - watch for traffic problems stopping Ganesha, Valsharah, and Master Dandy
WATCH
Dream Deal returning from 190 days off for Tim Easterby could be primed for a big run but needs to prove his fitness first time back
NOTE
Angel Of England reared and unseated rider at the start last time - any similar antics here would remove a key prominent runner
NOTE
Crocus Time has been off for 227 days but has an excellent Thirsk record and could be the forgotten horse in this competitive field
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.