Archive›Thirsk · 18 April 2026

Thirsk

18 April 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

1:37 — British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

5f · Good · NOV · 6 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:12 — Thomas Lord Dine & View Restaurant Great Value Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Good · CLS4 · 16 runners

Inishbeg likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Fozzie led; the map had Inishbeg in front.

Inishbeg won at 5.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Inishbeg

Prominent · 5

Advance TwentyfiveZarvaliSimba's PrideFozzieAct Of Honor

Midfield · 5

Dream OdysseyClova RoyaleBlue Boy JuniorPop The QuestionSaxon Gem

Hold Up · 5

Deep SleepHaltonwoodWeffaagForest PhoenixTalking In Kode

Inishbeg will take up the early running with limited pace pressure from a field where most prefer to come from behind. The lack of natural front-runners means Inishbeg can dictate fractions without serious challenge, while prominent runners like Advance Twentyfive, Simba's Pride, and Zarvali will track just behind. With so many hold-up horses needing room and luck in running, this race shape strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can secure good positions early and avoid traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Inishbeg Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Inishbeg gets an uncontested lead and maintains sustainable fractions

Kevin Stott can dictate the race at his own pace, making it very difficult for the hold-up brigade to peg him back. The prominent runners like Advance Twentyfive and Zarvali will be best placed to capitalize if the leader falters.

InishbegAdvance TwentyfiveZarvaliSimba's Pride

Prominent Racers Dominate

30% probability

If the early pace becomes slightly stronger with multiple horses tracking Inishbeg closely

This creates the ideal scenario for horses like Advance Twentyfive and Zarvali who can travel strongly in behind before striking. The hold-up horses will still struggle to make up ground from the back of a large field.

Advance TwentyfiveZarvaliInishbegSimba's Pride

Maiden Chaos Unfolds

15% probability

If inexperience leads to a messy pace with horses getting in each other's way

The large field of mostly lightly-raced horses creates traffic problems that could benefit any horse finding a clear run. Blue Boy Junior or Dream Odyssey might benefit from debut unknowns producing something special.

Blue Boy JuniorDream OdysseyClova RoyaleDeep Sleep

Hold-Up Heroes Strike

10% probability

If Inishbeg goes too fast early and the race falls apart in the final furlong

Horses like Deep Sleep and Haltonwood, who stay well and have shown some ability, could pick up the pieces late. This requires everything to go wrong up front, which is unlikely given the lack of pace pressure.

Deep SleepHaltonwoodWeffaagTalking In Kode

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Inishbeg breaks cleanly and gets an uncontested lead as this will be very hard to peg back

WATCH

The three debut runners Blue Boy Junior, Clova Royale and Dream Odyssey for market moves indicating ability

WATCH

Advance Twentyfive handles the step back up in trip after a long break, prominent style is a major asset

NOTE

Traffic problems developing in the final two furlongs with so many hold-up horses needing room

NOTE

Whether Zarvali shows any ring-rustiness after 208 days off, as his form gives him strong claims

2:47 — Nick Simpson Cannot Be 60 Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners

Iris Dancer to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ay Gee Ell led; the map had Iris Dancer in front.

Yes I'm Mali won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Iris Dancer

Prominent · 6

Yes I'm MaliMr DreamsellerHurt You NeverAy Gee EllLord AbamaMonotone

Midfield · 6

AshenTaygarOne More DreamBrave EmpireSherlockSolar Biricz

Hold Up · 5

Pal JoeyStirrup CupImpressorKings MerchantKnicks

Iris Dancer is the sole confirmed front runner and will set the tempo without early pressure from the large field of hold-up and prominent runners. The pace will be honest but not frantic, with Lord Abama, Mr Dreamseller, Yes I'm Mali, and Ay Gee Ell settling in behind the leader through the first half. With 13 hold-up horses including Kings Merchant, Knicks, and Stirrup Cup waiting to pounce, this becomes a tactical affair where the early pace will be moderate before a fierce late charge. This race shape heavily favours the prominent runners who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large pack of hold-up horses.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

55% probability

If the moderate early pace allows prominent runners to stay within striking distance of Iris Dancer

The large field of hold-up horses creates a wall of traffic in the final two furlongs, allowing the well-positioned prominent runners to surge clear. Mr Dreamseller and Yes I'm Mali benefit most from their tactical positioning and superior ratings.

Mr DreamsellerYes I'm MaliLord AbamaAy Gee Ell

Traffic Nightmare Unfolds

25% probability

If the 13 hold-up horses bunch together turning for home creating severe interference

The moderate pace ensures everyone stays in touch but the sheer volume of hold-up runners causes chaos in the straight. Only the horses with clear runs can capitalize, favoring those with tactical speed who can find gaps.

Hurt You NeverPal JoeyStirrup CupSherlock

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If Iris Dancer's uncontested lead proves too valuable in a large field where others struggle for racing room

The 8-year-old gets first run on the field and holds on as the chasing pack encounters traffic problems behind. Her recent second at Southwell suggests she retains enough ability to exploit a good position.

Iris DancerMr DreamsellerLord AbamaMonotone

Class Horse Overcomes Chaos

8% probability

If one of the higher-rated hold-up horses finds a clean passage through the crowded field

Despite the tactical disadvantage, superior ability tells as Kings Merchant or Stirrup Cup weaves through to land the prize. Their handlers' expertise in big field handicaps proves crucial.

Kings MerchantStirrup CupPal JoeyImpressor

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Iris Dancer breaking slowly would create pace chaos as no other confirmed leaders exist

WATCH

Look for traffic problems turning for home as 13 hold-up horses converge on limited racing room

WATCH

Mr Dreamseller and Yes I'm Mali gaining prominent positions early as their style suits this race perfectly

NOTE

Any hold-up horse getting an early prominent position would gain significant tactical advantage

NOTE

David Allan on Stirrup Cup seeking cover early rather than his usual patient hold-up tactics

3:23 — Join Racing TV Today Handicap (Div I)

7f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Beaujolais Nouveau likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Draupnir led; the map had Beaujolais Nouveau in front.

Murashah won at 3.25 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.

2 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Beaujolais Nouveau

Prominent · 2

City CaptainDraupnir

Midfield · 6

Count PalatineMelvin UdallQuest For FunMurashahWoodstockAlpha Capture

Hold Up · 4

LeadmanU Sure DoFrankies DreamOne Night Thunder

Beaujolais Nouveau and City Captain are the only prominent runners, with Draupnir also showing pace tendencies but from a much lower mark. This lack of natural pace will create a moderate tempo early, with Beaujolais Nouveau likely to dictate from the front without serious pressure. The large field of hold-up horses including Murashah, Leadman, and Melvin Udall will be bunched behind, setting up a sprint finish from the 2f pole. This pace scenario strongly favours front-running and prominent horses who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will unfold when 10+ hold-up horses try to find racing room simultaneously.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Front Running

45% probability

If Beaujolais Nouveau gets an easy lead and City Captain settles behind rather than pressing

The pace will be pedestrian through halfway, allowing the leaders to save energy for a sustained kick when the field closes. Hold-up horses will face a wall of traffic as they try to weave through the packed field.

Beaujolais NouveauCity CaptainDraupnirAlpha Capture

Pace Collapse Sprint

30% probability

If the early pace is genuinely slow and the field remains tightly bunched turning for home

The race becomes a pure 2f sprint where the best recent form and strongest finishers prevail regardless of position. Those with tactical pace will find the gaps that matter.

Melvin UdallU Sure DoCount PalatineQuest For Fun

Traffic Chaos Finish

20% probability

If the large hold-up contingent gets badly bunched and multiple horses are denied clear runs

Those who can get first run or avoid the worst of the scrimmaging will capitalize while better horses are stuck behind walls of horses. Clean passages become crucial.

One Night ThunderWoodstockFrankies DreamMurashah

Improved Pace Test

5% probability

If City Captain or Draupnir decide to press Beaujolais Nouveau and create a genuine gallop

The increased tempo will stretch the field and favor those with proven stamina over this trip at a strong pace. Pure sprinters will struggle.

Count PalatineLeadmanU Sure DoAlpha Capture

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Beaujolais Nouveau must be watched closely early - if he fails to go forward from his break the race dynamics change completely

WATCH

Monitor the pace through the first 3f as anything significantly slower than even gallop will create a cavalry charge finish

WATCH

Count Palatine and Melvin Udall need watching for clear runs turning in as both have winning form but must avoid traffic

NOTE

City Captain's tactics are key - whether he presses Beaujolais Nouveau or drops in will determine the pace scenario

NOTE

Watch for any of the long-absent runners showing unusual early zip as their fitness levels remain questionable

3:58 — Join Racing TV Today Handicap (Div II)

7f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Son likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kosometsuke and Mudamer led; the map had Son in front.

Kosometsuke won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Son

Prominent · 2

It'sneverjustoneKosometsuke

Midfield · 6

PacketofbiscuitsWar HowlNarmarStanageGreen PursuitGeo

Hold Up · 4

Brighton BoyWarm SpellMudamerSociety Man

Son appears the most likely pacesetter with his prominent style, but faces limited early pressure from fellow prominent runners Kosometsuke and It'sneverjustone. The majority of this field are hold-up horses (9 of 13) who will settle behind the early pace, creating a classic scenario where the leaders get an easy time of it early before facing late challenges. With so many closers needing room and relying on the pace collapsing, this race shape strongly favours the early speed and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems behind.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front runners dominate

45% probability

If Son and the prominent horses get an uncontested lead and maintain their kick

The pace-setters get too easy a time early and have enough left to repel the late cavalry charge. The hold-up horses get in each other's way and can't make up the ground.

SonKosometsukeIt'sneverjustonePacketofbiscuits

Hold-up horses swamp leaders

35% probability

If the early pace is stronger than expected or the prominent horses stop quickly

The front-runners hit the wall in the final furlong allowing the fresher closers to come through with well-timed runs. Experience and class tell in the finish.

NarmarMudamerWarm SpellBrighton Boy

Midfield tactical success

12% probability

If a horse can position perfectly in behind the pace without getting too far back

A runner gets the perfect trip tracking the leaders without doing too much work, then strikes at the ideal moment when others are either stopping or still making ground.

StanageGreen PursuitSociety ManWar Howl

Pace collapses completely

8% probability

If Son goes too fast early trying to make all or gets pressured into a speed duel

The early gallop becomes unsustainable and everything comes back to the pack, allowing the biggest closers from the rear to sweep up.

GeoWar HowlGreen PursuitSociety Man

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Son's fitness after 225-day absence - if he doesn't travel smoothly early, the pace scenario changes completely

WATCH

Traffic problems in the home straight with 9 hold-up horses needing room - watch for who gets clear runs

WATCH

Kosometsuke and It'sneverjustone's early positioning - if they pressure Son early, it could set up the closers

NOTE

Narmar's jumping from the gates given his hold-up style - needs to avoid being too far back in this big field

NOTE

The claiming jockeys on Society Man, War Howl and Geo - watch for any tactical errors in such a tactical race

4:32 — Happy 21st Birthday Lily Watkinson Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Don Simon likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Idyllic led; the map had Don Simon in front.

Minhad won at 15.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

2 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Don Simon

Prominent · 1

Idyllic

Midfield · 6

Lightning TigerRelocalMade AllFurhaanHackney DiamondsCougar

Hold Up · 4

MinhadHelmsleyGallivantedNightsinwhitesatin

Don Simon will lead from the start with no serious pace pressure, setting a controlled gallop over this 1m4f trip. Idyllic might track closely as the only other prominent runner, but the majority of this field are hold-up horses who will settle well back. This creates a sustainable tempo early with acceleration reserves for the leaders, before the field compresses in the final three furlongs. This tactical setup strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can dictate terms and kick clear when the pace lifts.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Dictate Terms

65% probability

If Don Simon and Idyllic get an uncontested lead through steady fractions

They can control the race completely and have first run on the field when quickening three furlongs out. The hold-up brigade faces a wall of horses and limited room to make their challenge effective.

Don SimonIdyllicNightsinwhitesatinLightning Tiger

Strong Late Surge

20% probability

If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and the field stays tightly bunched

The class horses with finishing kicks get their ideal scenario to unleash devastating late runs. Nightsinwhitesatin and Lightning Tiger can sweep past tiring leaders in the final furlong.

NightsinwhitesatinLightning TigerMinhadHackney Diamonds

Midrace Positioning Battle

10% probability

If several horses move forward approaching the turn to contest the pace

The race becomes messy with early positioning battles that compromise both leaders and hold-up horses. Those who secure good midfield spots without getting involved in scrimmaging benefit most.

Made AllRelocalHelmsleyGallivanted

Weak Pace Collapses

5% probability

If Don Simon goes too slowly and gets swamped by multiple challengers early

The race turns into a sprint finish where pure speed matters most over tactical positioning. Fresh finishers with recent runs and good pace figures can capitalise.

Hackney DiamondsFurhaanCougarMinhad

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Don Simon could get an uncontested lead if no other horse goes forward early, making him very difficult to peg back

WATCH

Nightsinwhitesatin and Lightning Tiger both return from lengthy breaks and may need the run despite their class edge

WATCH

The inside draw positions could create early crowding issues for several hold-up horses seeking clear runs

NOTE

Made All's quick return after winning suggests the yard thinks he's well handicapped and improving

NOTE

Hackney Diamonds has dropped considerably in grade and could outclass these rivals if getting the right run

5:07 — Stirrup Bar For Deli-Style Dining Packages Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Schrodinger's Cat and Hanney Girl led, as the map showed.

Simplify won at 3.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

MerlierSimplifyHanney Girl

Prominent · 6

ExclamationDazzling HazeStar MaterialDaneh Of DandyRikki Tiki TaviMo Of Cairo

Midfield · 3

The Lost SockEntailedSchrodinger's Cat

Hold Up · 2

Go Vince GoBig Fun

Merlier, Simplify, and Hanney Girl will ensure a strong early gallop with three confirmed front runners all wanting the lead. The prominent brigade - Daneh Of Dandy, The Lost Sock, Mo Of Cairo, Dazzling Haze, Exclamation, Rikki Tiki Tavi, and Schrodinger's Cat - creates severe congestion behind the leaders, guaranteeing traffic problems in the final two furlongs. Over this sharp 5f track, the sustained pace will stretch the field and test stamina reserves. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses like Big Fun and Go Vince Go who can avoid the early scrimmaging and deliver late strikes when others are emptying.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses prevail

55% probability

If the early pace is as strong as expected and the prominent runners get caught in traffic

The pace collapses in the final furlong as the front-runners tire and the midfield bunch kicks lumps out of each other. Big Fun and Go Vince Go sweep past tired legs with their superior finishing kicks.

Big FunGo Vince GoMerlierSimplify

Prominent runner breaks clear

25% probability

If one of the prominent horses secures the perfect stalking position without getting trapped

They avoid the worst of the scrimmaging while staying close enough to strike when the leaders weaken. The Lost Sock or Exclamation capitalize on their class advantage over a weakening field.

The Lost SockExclamationSchrodinger's CatMo Of Cairo

Front runner wire-to-wire

12% probability

If Merlier or Simplify can steal a march and open up daylight before the others react

The leader builds an unassailable advantage while the chasers get bogged down in traffic behind them. Recent form suggests both are sharp enough to sustain the effort over this minimum trip.

MerlierSimplifyHanney GirlDazzling Haze

Pace collapses completely

8% probability

If the three front runners go too fast early and completely burn each other out

The race becomes a sprint finish between whoever escapes the traffic, with stamina less of a factor. Any of the prominent runners with a clear passage could capitalize on the tactical shambles.

Daneh Of DandyRikki Tiki TaviStar MaterialEntailed

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for traffic problems developing around the two-furlong pole as seven prominent runners converge behind the three leaders

WATCH

Monitor if Merlier or Simplify can secure an uncontested lead as the other wants to press on

NOTE

Check if Big Fun can overcome his long absence to deliver his trademark late kick when others tire

WATCH

Observe whether The Lost Sock can secure racing room given the inevitable congestion in his preferred position

NOTE

Watch for Go Vince Go to be produced with a late run if the pace scenario unfolds as expected

5:40 — Hunt Cup Next Meeting Saturday 2nd May Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 17 runners

Lead contested: Stormy Pearl v LangholmHISTORIC

How it ran

Eldeyaar led; the map had Stormy Pearl and Langholm in front.

Eldeyaar won at 34.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Stormy PearlLangholm

Prominent · 6

La RochetteHurstwoodGolden ProsperityRun This WayTommytwohootsEldeyaar

Midfield · 4

Mister McGregorWee MaryDoon The GlenCanaria Sun

Hold Up · 5

PiperstownEmerald ArmyJet WarriorWhat What WhatSiviez

Langholm and Stormy Pearl will contest the early lead, with both confirmed front-runners likely to set a genuine gallop over this sharp 6f. Run This Way, Hurstwood, and Golden Prosperity should track the pace prominently, creating a strong tempo that will test stamina reserves. The honest pace should set up a finish where the hold-up horses get their chance, but the track's configuration and large field means those held up need luck in running. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track the pace and kick, rather than pure front-runners who may pay for the early battle or hold-up horses who face traffic problems.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Trackers Prevail

45% probability

If the pace duel between Langholm and Stormy Pearl creates an honest gallop without being suicidal

Golden Prosperity and Tommytwohoots can track the leaders and time their challenges perfectly. The genuine pace exposes the front-runners' stamina while the hold-up horses struggle for clear runs in the big field.

Golden ProsperityTommytwohootsRun This WayHurstwood

Hold-Up Horses Strike

30% probability

If the early pace becomes overly strong and the field strings out significantly

The closing horses like Piperstown and Doon The Glen get the gaps they need as the pace collapses. Both horses have shown excellent recent form and can unleash telling late kicks when the race unfolds to suit.

PiperstownDoon The GlenWhat What WhatWee Mary

Front Runner Survives

15% probability

If one of the leaders gets an uncontested or soft lead early

Either Langholm or Stormy Pearl could steal a march if their rival doesn't engage seriously early on. The survivor would have enough left to resist the late challenges over this sharp track that often rewards those who get first run.

LangholmStormy PearlGolden ProsperityTommytwohoots

Longshot Surprise

10% probability

If the race becomes a cavalry charge with the favourites inconveniencing each other

The pace scenario and traffic problems could open the door for an outsider like Mister McGregor or Eldeyaar. These horses have shown glimpses of ability and could benefit from a messy race where the market leaders struggle.

Mister McGregorEldeyaarSiviezJet Warrior

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Piperstown and Doon The Glen both need clear passages from hold-up positions in this big field where traffic problems are inevitable

WATCH

Langholm and Stormy Pearl could set unsustainable fractions if both commit to the early lead battle

NOTE

Golden Prosperity's recent course form makes him a key pace tracker to follow behind the leaders

WATCH

Multiple horses returning from lengthy breaks including Emerald Army, Hurstwood, and Langholm face fitness tests

NOTE

The going has remained consistently good throughout the card, favouring horses with proven form on this surface

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 18 April 2026.

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