Archive›Thirsk · 2 May 2026

Thirsk

2 May 2026 · 7 races

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1:35 — Steve Poskitt's 60th Birthday Restricted Maiden Stakes (Bands C and D) (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)

5f · Good · CLS5 · 8 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

2:10 — British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

7f · Good · NOV · 5 runners

Town Queen likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Town Queen led, as the map showed.

Karvala won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Town Queen

Prominent · 1

Perfect Ruler

Midfield · 1

Porth Eilian

Hold Up · 2

Distant ShoreKarvala

Town Queen and Perfect Ruler will contest the early lead with Town Queen likely to prevail given her proven front-running ability and superior class edge. With only two genuine pace angles in a small field, Town Queen should dictate comfortable fractions through the middle stages without pressure. The modest early pace will compress the field turning for home, bringing the hold-up horses Distant Shore, Karvala and Porth Eilian into play with strong finishing kicks. This race shape clearly favours the hold-up brigade who can unleash late runs against the modest gallop.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses dominate

60% probability

If Town Queen sets uncontested fractions and the pace becomes pedestrian

The compressed field allows Distant Shore and Karvala to unleash devastating late runs that the modest early pace cannot repel. Class and finishing kick prove decisive over tactical positioning.

Distant ShoreKarvalaTown QueenPorth Eilian

Front runner kicks clear

25% probability

If Town Queen quickens turning for home before the closers can organise

Her class advantage and tactical position allow her to build an unassailable lead in the straight. The hold-up horses respond too late to bridge the gap.

Town QueenPerfect RulerDistant ShoreKarvala

Prominent tracker strikes

10% probability

If Perfect Ruler travels perfectly behind Town Queen and times her challenge ideally

She gets first run on the leaders while avoiding traffic, proving too strong for both the tiring pace-setter and the wide-finishing hold-up horses. Perfect positioning trumps pure pace dynamics.

Perfect RulerTown QueenDistant ShorePorth Eilian

Surprise outsider emerges

5% probability

If Porth Eilian finds significant improvement from her recent Windsor effort

Her hold-up style benefits from the modest pace while her rivals underperform, allowing her superior turn of foot to prevail. Form reversal catches the market off-guard.

Porth EilianKarvalaTown QueenDistant Shore

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Town Queen must quicken decisively turning for home before Distant Shore's superior class and fresh legs take effect

WATCH

Perfect Ruler's ability to secure ideal tracking position behind Town Queen without getting trapped on rails

NOTE

Distant Shore shaking off 283-day rustiness early in contest to deliver her customary strong finish

WATCH

Karvala finding the significant improvement needed from disappointing Windsor fifth to justify hold-up tactics

NOTE

Overall pace development through first four furlongs determining whether front-runners or closers gain tactical edge

2:40 — Sky Bet Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 15 runners

Flight Plan to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Redarna led; the map had Flight Plan in front.

Mirsky won at 6.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it.

5 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Flight Plan

Prominent · 6

Blue RcSea ForceMirskyCity Of PoetsEsherannBellarchi

Midfield · 4

A War EagleDashing DarceyAccentuateRedarna

Hold Up · 4

Witch HunterAl MubhirApiaristRhoscolyn

Flight Plan will lead uncontested early, setting a comfortable gallop with no other dedicated front runners in the field. The prominent brigade of Sea Force, Blue Rc, Mirsky, City Of Poets, Esherann, A War Eagle and Bellarchi will create serious congestion behind the leader from 3f out as they all jostle for position. This will become a war of attrition in the final 2f as the pace quickens and the hold-up horses try to find racing room through the pack. The sustainable early gallop followed by intense late pressure favours horses with tactical speed who can position prominently without getting caught in traffic.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Power Prevails

45% probability

If the prominent runners can secure clear runs turning for home

Blue Rc and Sea Force have the class and position to capitalize when the pace lifts, avoiding the worst of the traffic that will engulf the hold-up horses. Their forward position allows them to respond immediately when Flight Plan comes under pressure.

Blue RcSea ForceCity Of PoetsMirsky

Late Surge Success

30% probability

If the hold-up horses find clear passages through the prominent traffic

Al Mubhir and Apiarist have the highest ratings in the field and can produce telling late kicks if they avoid trouble in running. The Kevin Ryan pair know how to win these competitive handicaps when getting the right setup.

Al MubhirApiaristAccentuateRhoscolyn

Flight Plan Stays Strong

15% probability

If the leader can maintain his gallop while the pack behind fights it out

Flight Plan's uncontested lead gives him every chance to see out the trip, especially with the prominent horses taking lumps out of each other behind. Sam James can dictate terms and kick again when the challengers arrive.

Flight PlanBlue RcSea ForceMirsky

Traffic Chaos Benefits Outsiders

10% probability

If the favorites get trapped behind the wall of prominent runners

A War Eagle and Bellarchi could emerge from the ruck with clear runs while higher-rated rivals are stuck without racing room. The pace collapse would suit their finishing kicks perfectly.

A War EagleBellarchiEsherannDashing Darcey

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Flight Plan's jumping from the gates - if slow away the race dynamics completely change with no other natural leader

WATCH

Traffic developing 3f out when Sea Force, Blue Rc, Mirsky, City Of Poets and Esherann all converge for racing room

WATCH

Al Mubhir's fitness after 225-day absence - any signs of rustiness will end his chances quickly

NOTE

A War Eagle's position at halfway - needs to be handy to take advantage of his light weight

NOTE

Blue Rc's response when headed - progressive type who may have more improvement to find

3:15 — Sky Bet Sunday At Thirsk 31 May Book Now Handicap

1m6f · Good · HCAP · 5 runners

Shipshape likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Scottish Dancer led; the map had Shipshape in front.

Scottish Dancer won at 34.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Shipshape

Prominent · 0

None

Midfield · 2

MarbuzetAshdown Forest

Hold Up · 2

AnalogicalScottish Dancer

Shipshape is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate terms uncontested from the gates. With four hold-up horses behind him (Analogical, Ashdown Forest, Marbuzet, Scottish Dancer), Shipshape can set his own fractions without pressure through the early stages of this 1m6f contest. The lack of pace pressure allows Shipshape to kick clear when ready, while the hold-up brigade will need him to stop or face a difficult task from off the pace. This race shape strongly favours the front runner and prominent racers, as the hold-up horses will struggle to make up ground if Shipshape maintains his advantage.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Shipshape Controls Throughout

60% probability

If Shipshape gets an easy lead and maintains his kick

Connor Beasley can dictate comfortable fractions and have enough left to resist late challengers on this stamina-testing trip. The hold-up horses face an impossible task trying to reel in an unchallenged leader.

ShipshapeAnalogicalMarbuzetAshdown Forest

Late Charge Succeeds

25% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and Shipshape ties up

Analogical's superior class (OR 79) and recent good form allows him to time his challenge perfectly in the final furlong. Marbuzet's stamina and good going record also comes into play.

AnalogicalMarbuzetShipshapeAshdown Forest

Shipshape Stops Dramatically

10% probability

If Shipshape's 17-day break tells and he hits the wall

The field comes back to him rapidly in the final two furlongs, allowing the best stayer to prevail. Scottish Dancer's long absence becomes irrelevant as class tells.

Scottish DancerMarbuzetAnalogicalAshdown Forest

Tactical Disaster

5% probability

If Shipshape goes too slowly and everyone gets there together

A messy sprint finish develops where track position and luck in running matter most. The apprentice claim on Scottish Dancer could prove decisive in a blanket finish.

Scottish DancerAshdown ForestAnalogicalMarbuzet

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Shipshape's early fractions - if he gets an uncontested lead the race could be over before it begins

WATCH

Scottish Dancer showing any early life despite the 1065-day absence as the apprentice claim is significant

NOTE

Analogical's positioning turning for home as he needs to be close enough to use his class advantage

WATCH

Marbuzet handling the step back up in distance after 203 days off the track

NOTE

The overall tempo through the middle stages as a crawling pace would transform this contest completely

3:55 — Alison And Andrew Richardson Ruby Anniversary Handicap

6f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Kosometsuke likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kats Bob led; the map had Kosometsuke in front.

Emperor Caradoc won at 17.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kosometsuke

Prominent · 3

Kats BobMr DreamsellerEmperor Caradoc

Midfield · 2

Sugar BabyKhabib

Hold Up · 3

Aberama GoldMister SoxRock Opera

Kosometsuke will likely lead from the outset with his prominent style and recent winning form, though Kats Bob, Sugar Baby, Emperor Caradoc and Mr Dreamseller all show prominent tendencies that could challenge early. With only one confirmed front runner against multiple prominent horses, the pace should develop into a solid gallop without being punishing. The hold-up contingent of Aberama Gold, Mister Sox, Rock Opera and Khabib will sit off this steady tempo. This setup clearly favours the hold-up horses who can benefit from the solid pace and finish strongly in the final two furlongs.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

45% probability

If the prominent horses engage early and sustain a solid pace throughout

The tempo will be perfect for the closers to pick up the pieces, with Aberama Gold and Mister Sox having the class to capitalize. Both have shown their best form when allowed to come from off the pace at this trip.

Aberama GoldMister SoxRock OperaKhabib

Kosometsuke Gets Easy Lead

30% probability

If the other prominent horses fail to press Kosometsuke early

He can dictate a slower tempo and kick clear in the final furlong as he did when winning last time out. His recent 6f success and good course record make him dangerous if uncontested.

KosometsukeSugar BabyKats BobMr Dreamseller

Pace Collapses Late

15% probability

If the early pace is too strong and the prominent horses tie up

The race will turn into a sprint finish where the freshest horse wins regardless of running style. Rock Opera's higher topspeed figure could prove decisive in a blanket finish.

Rock OperaKhabibAberama GoldMister Sox

Prominent Horse Sustains

10% probability

If one of the prominent horses can both press the pace and sustain their effort

Kats Bob or Mr Dreamseller could dominate if they get the fractions right and their recent form holds up. This requires perfect jockey judgment and a career-best performance.

Kats BobMr DreamsellerSugar BabyEmperor Caradoc

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Sugar Baby returning from 161-day layoff faces significant fitness concerns despite his prominent running style

WATCH

Watch if Kosometsuke gets an uncontested lead as he could dictate terms and kick clear like his recent victory

WATCH

Khabib returning from 615-day absence is a complete unknown quantity and impossible to assess accurately

NOTE

Monitor early pace development between multiple prominent horses as this will determine which closers can benefit

NOTE

Watch for Aberama Gold to be positioned perfectly off the pace as he showed when winning his recent course success

4:25 — Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap

5f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Tatterstall likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Brazen Bolt led; the map had Tatterstall in front.

Kinetic Force won at 4.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tatterstall

Prominent · 3

VanthemanBrazen BoltAmerican Bay

Midfield · 4

Kinetic ForceEquity LawSquealerSports Coach

Hold Up · 3

Elegant ErinToca MaderaWheels Of Fire

Tatterstall is the only confirmed front-runner in this field and will likely get an uncontested lead, setting a comfortable pace over this sharp 5f at Thirsk. With most rivals preferring prominent or hold-up tactics, there's no obvious pressure source to challenge Tatterstall early, allowing for measured fractions. The lack of genuine pace pressure creates a tempo that will suit horses with tactical speed who can position handily and finish strongly. This race shape clearly favours prominent runners and those with proven finishing kicks over pure hold-up horses who may find themselves too far back on the quick Thirsk 5f circuit.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If Tatterstall gets soft sectionals and maintains stamina reserves for the finish

The lack of early pace pressure allows the front-runner to dictate terms and prove hard to peg back in the final furlong. Prominent runners tracking closely also benefit from the honest but manageable gallop.

TatterstallVanthemanKinetic ForceAmerican Bay

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If one of the handy runners can sit just off Tatterstall and produce superior finishing speed

The tactical pace allows prominent horses to conserve energy while staying close enough to pounce when the front-runner tires. This scenario particularly suits those with proven acceleration.

American BayKinetic ForceEquity LawBrazen Bolt

Late Closer Benefits

15% probability

If the modest early pace creates a bunched field entering the final two furlongs

The lack of early speed creates a sprint finish from the 2f pole where horses with strong finishing kicks can sweep up from midfield positions. Quality hold-up performers can overcome their positioning disadvantage.

Sports CoachToca MaderaWheels Of FireElegant Erin

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If Tatterstall goes too slow early and multiple horses challenge simultaneously in the straight

The suddenly increased tempo in the final 2f catches out both the front-runner and those dependent on steady pace. Horses with natural speed and fitness benefit most.

Brazen BoltEquity LawVanthemanSquealer

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tatterstall's fitness after 247 days off - if he shows any signs of blowing up in the final furlong, prominent trackers will pounce

WATCH

How far back the hold-up horses Toca Madera and Elegant Erin settle - if too far behind early, they'll struggle on this sharp track

NOTE

Whether any of the prominent horses challenge Tatterstall for the early lead - this would completely change the pace dynamic

WATCH

American Bay's positioning from the gates - needs to be handy early to utilize his strong finishing kick effectively

NOTE

Connor Beasley's tactics on Tatterstall - whether he goes forward immediately or allows others to contest the early lead

5:00 — Sky Bet Irish Day Saturday 16th May Book Now Handicap

1m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Pension Pot likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Thats My Boy Luke and Front Gunner led; the map had Pension Pot in front.

Rising Force won at 9.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Pension Pot

Prominent · 3

Law SupremeLightning GalaxyThats My Boy Luke

Midfield · 2

Front GunnerOff Spin

Hold Up · 3

Rising ForceSunny OrangeKiss Me My Love

Pension Pot stands out as the sole confirmed front runner in this nine-runner field, likely to dictate terms from the rail without serious early pressure. Law Supreme, Lightning Galaxy, Thats My Boy Luke and Front Gunner all show prominent tendencies but may settle just behind rather than challenge for the lead. The hold-up brigade of Sunny Orange, Rising Force, Kiss Me My Love and Off Spin will need the pace to develop sufficiently for their finishing kicks. This tactical scenario strongly favours the prominent runners who can track Pension Pot's likely steady gallop and strike in the final two furlongs before the closers can unleash.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Pension Pot sets steady fractions and the prominent horses track him perfectly

The lack of early pace pressure allows Law Supreme, Lightning Galaxy or Thats My Boy Luke to position ideally and strike decisively approaching the final furlong. The hold-up horses find insufficient pace development to mount their typical late charges.

Law SupremeThats My Boy LukeLightning GalaxyFront Gunner

Hold-up Horse Strikes

25% probability

If the prominent runners go too hard trying to collar Pension Pot mid-race

This creates the pace collapse scenario that perfectly suits Sunny Orange's proven ability to finish strongly, with Rising Force also dangerous if the gallop develops. Kiss Me My Love could benefit from her recent proximity to pace.

Sunny OrangeRising ForceKiss Me My LoveOff Spin

Front Runner Dominates

20% probability

If Pension Pot gets his own way on the lead with perfect fractions

The David Barron-trained four-year-old proves too tough from the front, maintaining his gallop when the field comes to him. His recent second at Thirsk on similar ground provides the blueprint for success.

Pension PotLaw SupremeLightning GalaxyThats My Boy Luke

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If all the prominent runners hesitate behind Pension Pot creating crawling fractions

The race becomes a sprint finish where Off Spin and Kiss Me My Love can utilise their tactical speed from unpromising positions. This scenario requires significant tactical errors from multiple jockeys.

Kiss Me My LoveOff SpinSunny OrangeRising Force

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch if Pension Pot gets an uncontested lead through slow early fractions as he could prove very difficult to peg back

WATCH

Monitor Lightning Galaxy's fitness after 176 days off as early position will be crucial if ring-rusty

NOTE

Observe how aggressively the prominent runners Law Supreme and Thats My Boy Luke track Pension Pot in the early stages

WATCH

Check if the hold-up horses Sunny Orange and Rising Force can secure racing room in the straight with nine runners packed together

NOTE

Watch Kiss Me My Love's early positioning as she may need to be closer to the pace than usual in this tactical scenario

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 2 May 2026.

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