2:13 — AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Riders With 3 Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)
1m · Good · HCAP · 11 runners
Hatamoto to leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Hatamoto led, as the map showed.
Hatamoto won at 6.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Hatamoto
Prominent · 3
Deep SleepSandretTees George
Midfield · 4
SuzetteMisemeraldDandy's AngelHarswell River
Hold Up · 3
Jungle KnightTropez PowerCalaxy
Hatamoto is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, will dictate a controlled, honest gallop on Good turf over one mile at Thirsk — a flat, straightforward track that rewards those who travel comfortably and sustain their effort. The pace will be moderate rather than scorching: Hatamoto has won twice from the front at this trip on similar ground and Miss Rebecca Burley is unlikely to be pressured into going faster than she needs to. Behind the leader, Sandret and Tees George should slot prominently, with Deep Sleep also wanting to race in the first half of the field, creating a reasonably ordered race shape rather than a chaotic scrimmage. This setup — a single unhurried front-runner, a small clutch of prominent racers sitting just off the pace, and a crowded hold-up group — classically favours horses racing prominently at a sustainable tempo, as they avoid traffic, save energy in the early stages and have first run on the hold-up horses entering the straight. The field holds more true hold-up types than can realistically get to the rear: Suzette, Misemerald, Dandy's Angel and Harswell River are all genuine hold-up horses redistributed to midfield on the map, with Hatamoto and, to a lesser degree, Sandret and Tees George most likely to secure their natural position and dictate the terms.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hatamoto controls, prominent wins
62% probability
If Hatamoto sets a comfortable lead and the pace stays honest without acceleration until the final furlong.
Hatamoto bowls along in front unchallenged, Sandret and Tees George track in the slipstream and have first run entering the home straight; the hold-up horses face traffic and are too far back to close in time.
HatamotoSandretTees GeorgeDeep Sleep
B
Prominent racer overpowers leader
18% probability
If Sandret, Tees George or Deep Sleep track Hatamoto throughout and produce more at the furlong pole.
One of the prominent trio sits a length off Hatamoto throughout, conserving energy while the leader does the donkey work, then kicks past inside the final furlong on Good ground that rewards sustained galloping.
SandretTees GeorgeDeep SleepHatamoto
C
Hold-up horse threads through
13% probability
If the early gallop is genuinely strong enough to set up a proper finish and a hold-up runner finds a clear run.
Misemerald, who has placed five times in her last five starts on similar Good ground and clearly goes well fresh enough after only 4 days, is the likeliest beneficiary if gaps appear; her consistent form figures (234231) suggest she stays on without needing a slow-run race.
MisemeraldHarswell RiverJungle KnightSuzette
D
Pace collapses, sprint finish
7% probability
If Hatamoto crawls early and the field bunches, turning the race into a sprint from two furlongs out.
A tight, dawdling pace would compress the field and allow any horse with a turn of foot to motor past, but most runners here are stayers or grinders rather than pure sprinters and the amateur jockey dynamic makes a true dawdle less likely.
Jungle KnightTees GeorgeSandretMisemerald
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hatamoto's early lead is the race's pivot point — watch whether Miss Burley crosses quickly from her draw; if she is slow away or another horse presses her, the race shape changes entirely.
WATCH
Misemerald runs just four days after her last race; watch her in the paddock and early strides for any sign the quick turnaround has taken its toll, as her form figures are otherwise the most consistent in the field.
WATCH
The cluster of redistributed hold-up horses (Suzette, Misemerald, Dandy's Angel, Harswell River) will all be competing for the same late runs into the straight — watch for a bunching incident entering the home turn as they try to find their positions.
NOTE
Calaxy has not run for 198 days and all her placed form is on artificial or heavy surfaces; watch for any market moves that might indicate stable confidence, otherwise treat the absence as a significant risk flag.
NOTE
Deep Sleep's trainer returns 5/46 over 14 days — a cold yard angle — and his recent form shows a pattern of modest placings without conviction; watch whether his prominent style gets him into a challenging position or whether he weakens once headed.
2:48 — Work Matters Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
1m · Good · NOV · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
3:25 — Caddick Construction EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
1m · Good · NOV · 15 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:00 — Ivegate Building Handicap Stakes
6f · Good · HCAP · 20 runners
Lead contested: County Carlow v Kats BobHISTORIC
How it ran
Deep Havana led; the map had County Carlow and Kats Bob in front.
Deep Havana won at 29.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently.
5 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
County CarlowKats Bob
Prominent · 8
Lord RoxbyDurham CastleDeep HavanaAnyasiVeblen GoodNovello LadWe Never StopStarmade
Midfield · 4
Jordan ElectricsManila ScouseWoodstockHavana Rum
Hold Up · 6
TopwarriorArt LoverWovenYes I'm MaliEye Of DubaiBig Cyril
County Carlow and Kats Bob are the confirmed front-runners and will clash for the lead from the gates, creating a genuine, honest gallop on good ground over six furlongs — this is not a false-pace scenario. Eight of twenty runners want prominent ground, producing a congested early chase pack and real traffic danger from the two-furlong pole where runners will fan wide or become pocketed. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than can realistically occupy those positions, with Jordan Electrics, Manila Scouse and Woodstock the most likely to actually secure early cover given their gate habits and jockey experience, while others will be shuffled back involuntarily. With the gallop honest and the track flat, this race shape strongly favours horses who can sit a length or two off a genuine pace and produce a clean, sustained finish — true prominent racers tracking in the first half-dozen who get a clean run at the two-furlong marker will be best placed, while genuine hold-up horses will need a clear split to benefit from the strong tempo.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Prominent Sit-And-Strike
42% probability
If County Carlow and Kats Bob force a genuine pace and a tracker settles just off them in the first five, poised for a clean two-furlong run.
The honest gallop stretches the field and a prominent racer who is never further than third or fourth can exploit the pace collapse of the front two entering the final furlong; Thirsk's flat six favours a sustained, controlled surge rather than a late swoop.
Lord RoxbyAnyasiStarmadeNovello Lad
B
Front Runners Stolen Victory
28% probability
If County Carlow or Kats Bob crosses quickly to the rail, dictates a controlled gallop faster than rivals expect, and the chasing pack is tardy in going for them.
The lead horse gets the run of the race unchallenged and Thirsk's flat, galloping track means a well-rated front-runner with tactical pace can nick an uncontested lead before the big field organises; the weight of traffic congestion slows the main pack's response.
County CarlowKats BobManila ScouseJordan Electrics
C
Late Closer Benefits
20% probability
If the prominent pack over-races in the early scrum and the pace blows up sharply, leaving a gap on the outside for hold-up types to sprint through.
A true hold-up horse sitting off the tempo by four or five lengths will find the final furlong yielding as the prominent runners stop in front; Thirsk's track does not exaggerate the closer's advantage, so this requires a genuine pace collapse, not just an honest gallop.
Yes I'm MaliArt LoverHavana RumWoven
D
Midfield Traffic Carnage
10% probability
If the eight prominent runners bunch into a wall two furlongs out, causing interference that eliminates several fancied runners and a luckier midfield horse sneaks through.
A horse redistribution scenario where a true prominent racer forced into midfield finds a gap when others check; the chaotic middle-race sequence produces an unexpected winner rather than the form book choice.
WoodstockJordan ElectricsVeblen GoodDurham Castle
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
County Carlow and Kats Bob will clash at the head of affairs from the start — if neither yields cleanly, the early pace could burn both out before the two-furlong marker, fundamentally altering which runners can sustain a challenge.
KEY
With eight horses pressing for prominent positions, watch for traffic trouble between the two- and three-furlong markers as the field compresses on the flat track — horses on the inner rail are most exposed.
WATCH
Jordan Electrics, Manila Scouse and Woodstock are true prominent types mapped into midfield — if any of these three over-commits early to reclaim their natural position, they risk burning out and creating gaps that can unseat others.
WATCH
Big Cyril returns from 396 days off — if the horse is ring-rusty in a large, fast-moving field, Joanna Mason could find herself in difficulty in the early-race scramble, creating a danger to horses immediately behind.
NOTE
Lord Roxby and Durham Castle both carry strong good-ground profiles and prominent styles — watch which of the two secures cleaner early cover, as that positioning detail is likely to separate them in the closing stages.
Palmar BayInvictus GoldHe's A MonsterSuperposition
Northern Express is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with just one horse inclined to lead in a 14-runner field, will be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the front without being seriously pressured. Bobby Bennu, Mirsky, Alpha Capture and Majestic Dane are the likeliest prominent settlers, tracking a pace that is likely to be honest but not frenetic on Good ground over seven furlongs at Thirsk. The field holds more genuine hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Sergeant Wilko, Our Havana, Perfect Part, Brighton Boy and Frankies Dream are all true closers who will be forced forward of their natural position, meaning they will not enjoy the late-race energy reserves their running style depends on. With one measured pace-setter and a clear highway for those sitting just off the front, this race shape strongly favours prominent racers with a proven ability to quicken from a stalking position — horses who can sit second or third, conserve energy in a controlled race, and deliver a sustained run from two furlongs out.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Controlled Pace, Stalkers Win
52% probability
If Northern Express sets a calm, uncontested lead and prominent trackers conserve enough energy to pick him off in the final two furlongs.
Northern Express dictates from the front without being tested, allowing Bobby Bennu and Alpha Capture to travel comfortably in his slipstream before delivering their challenge; on Good ground at seven furlongs this is the classic Thirsk setup where horses who race prominently but not on the lead have a structural advantage.
Bobby BennuAlpha CaptureMajestic DaneSuperposition
B
Northern Express Wires Field
22% probability
If the gallop is genuinely modest and Northern Express gets an unchallenged, slow-motion lead that allows him to conserve enough to hold on.
With a small gap between his cruising speed and the field's chase-down pace, Northern Express could turn a seven-furlong race into a procession if the other prominent horses fail to apply pressure early enough; his excellent course-distance form and high sim-going score of 14/15 on Good underline the danger.
Northern ExpressMirskyBobby BennuAlpha Capture
C
Late Closers Break Through
17% probability
If the pace is quicker than expected through the first half and prominent horses are drawn into a burn-up, leaving late energy for genuine hold-up horses.
In this scenario the forced redistribution is reversed — a runner like Superposition or Palmar Bay, racing nearer their true style, picks up the pieces as the pace collapses in front of them; Superposition's win at 7f on Good and Palmar Bay's consistent placed form at this trip make them the most credible beneficiaries.
SuperpositionPalmar BayInvictus GoldOur Havana
D
Pace Collapse, Chaos Finish
9% probability
If multiple prominent horses push forward to dispute the lead, creating an unexpectedly strong gallop that breaks the race open for any survivor.
This shape is unlikely given the clear pecking order, but if Bobby Bennu or Majestic Dane decides to press Northern Express hard from the outset the collapse of the front group could hand a scrambling chance to whichever runner avoids the melee; with several hold-up types miscast in midfield, a true late finisher winning from the back is improbable even in this shape.
Northern Express (Connor Beasley) gets a completely uncontested lead — if no other prominent horse moves to press him before halfway, the controlled pace could allow him to steal several lengths on the field turning for home.
WATCH
Sergeant Wilko, Our Havana, Brighton Boy, Perfect Part and Frankies Dream are all natural hold-up horses who will be squeezed into midfield — watch for a bottleneck on the turn that could hamper multiple runners simultaneously.
WATCH
Majestic Dane is entirely unexposed on Good turf and has only two career runs — any erratic or greenish behaviour from the three-year-old in a 14-runner field on a flat track could create interference for those racing close by.
NOTE
Alpha Capture's visor and consistent placed form on Good ground make him one to monitor for early positioning — if he slots smoothly into second or third behind Northern Express he is likely to be involved at the business end.
NOTE
He's A Monster returns from 369 days off — watch how he moves in the paddock and how quickly he settles; a rusty reappearance could see him drop away quickly and cause disruption in a tightly packed mid-pack.
5:13 — Applebridge Group Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
1m6f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners
Lead contested: Sax Appeal v Talismans TimeHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
Sax AppealTalismans Time
Prominent · 2
SuduMick Collins
Midfield · 1
Arrange
Hold Up · 2
PinatiqueHamadhan
Sax Appeal and Talismans Time are both confirmed front-runners and will contest the early lead over this 1m6f trip at Thirsk, creating a genuinely contested gallop from the outset rather than a false or dawdling pace. With two horses committed to making the running, the pace should be honest and sustained throughout, stretching the field and placing a premium on stamina and relaxed cruising speed rather than a sharp tactical change of gear. This race shape — a competitive, even-tempo gallop on good ground — classically favours prominent racers who can sit just off the pace and pounce without having to make up excessive ground, rather than true hold-up horses who need a sprint to close. The field also contains more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear; Arrange is a genuine hold-up horse pushed into the midfield mapping, making a late swooping finish less certain to materialise than the pace shape alone might suggest.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Pace, Prominent Wins
62% probability
If Sax Appeal and Talismans Time trade blows up front and set an honest, even gallop that suits horses travelling just behind them.
The sustained pace drains the front-runners in the closing stages and hands the advantage to horses who settled prominently and picked up efficiently; Sudu and Mick Collins are both prominent-style performers with form over this type of trip in similar going.
SuduMick CollinsSax AppealTalismans Time
B
Front-Runner Dominates Wire
18% probability
If one of the two pace-setters, most likely Sax Appeal, secures an uncontested or lightly-pressed lead and controls tempo on their own terms.
Sax Appeal has repeatedly placed at 1m6f-plus in good-ground conditions and carries that profile well; if Talismans Time drops away early or is ridden more conservatively, Sax Appeal could dictate a manageable pace and prove hard to reel in.
Sax AppealTalismans TimeSuduMick Collins
C
Hold-Up Horse Gets Home
13% probability
If the early duel between Sax Appeal and Talismans Time burns genuinely hard and collapses the race wide open in the final two furlongs.
Pinatique or Hamadhan, both true hold-up types, would need a strongly run race and a clear late run to capitalise; Pinatique is trained by Sir Mark Prescott with a 13-day turnaround suggesting stable confidence, and Hamadhan has placed on good ground at shorter distances.
PinatiqueHamadhanArrangeSudu
D
Closers Denied, Muddling Finish
7% probability
If the pace fluctuates, the leaders steal a breather mid-race, and hold-up horses are unable to mount a meaningful challenge from the rear.
Arrange, despite being mapped to midfield, is a genuine hold-up type racing out of role and would be at a particular disadvantage if the race becomes tactical and positional; a muddling finish would most likely favour whichever prominent runner conserves energy best through the middle portion.
Mick CollinsSuduSax AppealArrange
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Sax Appeal and Talismans Time — watch the early strides carefully to see which horse blinks first and concedes the rail or the lead, as whoever controls the pace from the front will shape the entire tactical outcome.
WATCH
Arrange — a genuine hold-up horse mapped to midfield due to field congestion; if this horse cannot drop back to its natural position early, it may race too prominently and burn energy it needs for a late challenge.
WATCH
Hamadhan — 90 days off the track is the longest absence in the field; watch the paddock and early running for any signs of rustiness, as a horse returning at this distance after a long break carries obvious fitness risk.
NOTE
Sudu — stepping up notably in trip today (from 12f to 14f is manageable, but context of recent runs at shorter distances is worth noting); if this horse is seen travelling easily in the prominent position through the first mile, it becomes a significant factor late.
NOTE
Mick Collins — David Nolan is a strong jockey booking for a horse with established staying form; watch whether Nolan positions this horse close enough to the pace early, as a prominent run from the outset is key to this horse's best performances.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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