3:45 — Enter ITV7 For Free Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)
7f · Good · NOV · 10 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
4:15 — Flutter Proud To Support Young Lives Vs Cancer Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners
4 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC
How it ran
Dazzling Haze and Mighty Magnus led; the map had Kinnalargy and Ambishio and Straight Ahead and Sands Of Josepi in front.
Dazzling Haze won at 13.00 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 4
KinnalargyAmbishioStraight AheadSands Of Josepi
Prominent · 4
Go Vince GoDazzling HazeMighty MagnusUnder The Radar
Midfield · 1
Explosive Finnish
Hold Up · 4
Here ForeverNoble VowBig FunHenrythenate
Kinnalargy, Ambishio, Straight Ahead, and Sands Of Josepi will ensure a strong gallop from the start in this competitive handicap. The pace will be honest throughout with multiple front-runners committed to the lead, creating a searching test that should expose any lack of fitness or stamina. The sustained tempo will set up the race perfectly for horses that can close strongly from off the pace. This race shape clearly favors hold-up horses and prominent racers with a strong finishing kick over the pure front-runners.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Pace Suits Closers
55% probability
If the multiple front-runners engage early and maintain pressure throughout
The honest gallop will find out the leaders in the final furlong, allowing the better-class hold-up horses to sweep past tired leaders. Noble Vow and Big Fun are perfectly positioned to capitalize with their proven finishing speed.
Noble VowBig FunHere ForeverExplosive Finnish
B
Tactical Speed Battle
25% probability
If Kinnalargy and Ambishio dispute the early lead more aggressively than expected
The faster tempo will create an even stronger setup for closers but may also compromise some of the hold-up horses' chances if they get too far back. Under The Radar and Go Vince Go can bridge the gap between pace and stamina.
Under The RadarGo Vince GoNoble VowMighty Magnus
C
Front Runner Survives
12% probability
If one of the leaders gets an easier time than expected by opening up a decisive advantage
Straight Ahead or Ambishio could steal a march if the pace becomes more measured than anticipated, though this seems unlikely with four confirmed front-runners. The lack of pressure would allow a front-runner to see out the trip.
Straight AheadAmbishioKinnalargySands Of Josepi
D
Pace Collapse Chaos
8% probability
If several front-runners cancel each other out completely in a speed duel
The race could develop into a sprint finish with multiple horses converging in the final furlong, favoring those with the best recent form regardless of running style. Dazzling Haze and Mighty Magnus could capitalize on their higher ratings.
Dazzling HazeMighty MagnusGo Vince GoUnder The Radar
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Kinnalargy and Ambishio go too fast early as this will set up a perfect storm for the closers
WATCH
Monitor Straight Ahead's fitness after 162 days off as any lack of condition will be quickly exposed
NOTE
Keep an eye on Noble Vow's position turning for home as his recent strong finishes make him dangerous
WATCH
Watch for traffic problems with multiple hold-up horses (Big Fun, Here Forever, Explosive Finnish) needing room
NOTE
Observe if Under The Radar can secure a prominent position early as his course form gives him an edge
4:45 — Sky Bet Club Handicap
5f · Good · HCAP · 18 runners
Vantheman likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Woohoo led; the map had Vantheman in front.
Al Hussar won at 7.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.
5 of 17 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Vantheman
Prominent · 6
Spring Is SprungFar Above The LawKinetic ForceI'm NextCopper KnightMon Na Slieve
Vantheman and Mon Na Slieve will set the early pace with Far Above The Law, Spring Is Sprung, and Copper Knight tracking in the prominent positions. With 18 runners over 5f on good ground, this will likely be a strong gallop from the start. The pace-setters create pressure on each other, particularly Vantheman coming off his front-running win at Hamilton. This race shape favors prominent runners who can sit just off the pace and hold-up horses with a turn of foot, as the early leaders may compromise each other in a competitive sprint.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Pace Collapse Favours Closers
45% probability
If the early pace becomes too strong between Vantheman, Mon Na Slieve and the prominent group
The pace-setters weaken in the final furlong allowing hold-up horses to surge through. Runners like Montezuma and Muker who can quicken late benefit from the strong early gallop.
MontezumaMukerWoohooAcrisius
B
Prominent Group Dominates
30% probability
If Vantheman or the tracking group can control the fractions without going too fast early
The prominent runners get first run and hold off the closers in a tactical affair. Far Above The Law and Kinetic Force are well-placed to capitalize.
Far Above The LawKinetic ForceSpring Is SprungI'm Next
C
Front Runner Sustains
15% probability
If Vantheman can dictate a more measured pace like at Hamilton
The pace becomes more sustainable allowing the leader to kick clear in the final furlong. Vantheman's recent form and blinkers give him the edge to repeat his Hamilton success.
VanthemanMon Na SlieveEquity LawAmerican Bay
D
Outsider Strikes From Back
10% probability
If the pace becomes overly strong and the main fancies falter
A longshot with fresh legs and a low weight takes advantage of the collapse ahead. Changeofmind's recent win and low OR or Woohoo's light weight could prove decisive.
ChangeofmindWoohooAl HussarAcrisius
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Vantheman and Mon Na Slieve go too fast early as both are natural front-runners who could compromise each other
WATCH
Monitor how Montezuma settles after his disappointing effort over 6f at Hamilton as he needs the drop back to 5f
WATCH
Check if Mondammej cooperates after refusing to leave parade ring in November and being off for 211 days
NOTE
Observe if the hold-up horses like Muker and Acrisius get the strong pace they need to be effective late
NOTE
Note whether Far Above The Law can handle the 6lb rise after his narrow Ascot success
5:15 — Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
1m4f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
Serenity Blue likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Penzance led; the map had Serenity Blue in front.
Brielle won at 9.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
3 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Serenity Blue
Prominent · 3
PenzanceSpanish HustleEroico
Midfield · 4
Fast FredOpticianDamascus SteelValley Of Flowers
Hold Up · 4
Great BedwynBrielleCabreraLetsbefrank
Serenity Blue is the sole confirmed front runner and will set a measured tempo without pressure from the break. Penzance, Spanish Hustle and Eroico can sit prominent but none are obliged to challenge early. The vast majority are hold-up horses including Great Bedwyn, Cabrera, Optician, Brielle, Fast Fred, Letsbefrank, Valley Of Flowers and Damascus Steel who will be content to track the steady gallop. This uncontested pace scenario strongly favours hold-up horses who can conserve energy and deliver late challenges over the final two furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Pace Scenario
65% probability
If Serenity Blue leads unchallenged and sets moderate fractions
The steady tempo allows hold-up horses to conserve maximum energy before unleashing finishing kicks. Late closers benefit from the tactical advantage of racing behind horses and timing their challenges perfectly.
Great BedwynLetsbefrankFast FredBrielle
B
Prominent Pressure Applied
20% probability
If Penzance or Spanish Hustle challenge Serenity Blue early
The increased tempo stretches the field and creates gaps for horses with tactical speed. Those able to sit handy without over-racing gain positional advantages as others struggle to close from behind.
PenzanceSerenity BlueEroicoFast Fred
C
Late Pace Injection
10% probability
If the pace stays very slow until the final three furlongs
The sprint finish from the back becomes chaotic with traffic problems likely. Horses with proven turn of foot from unpromising positions can weave through and strike late when others tire.
Damascus SteelValley Of FlowersGreat BedwynCabrera
D
Early Pace Collapse
5% probability
If Serenity Blue goes too slow and gets swamped early
The race becomes a messy scramble with new leaders emerging mid-race. Adaptable horses who can change tactics and those drawn well gain advantages in the reshuffled running order.
Spanish HustleFast FredOpticianEroico
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Serenity Blue must be watched for early pace judgment as sole leader could get away with soft fractions
WATCH
Fast Fred and Spanish Hustle worth monitoring given stable's good recent form despite questionable last runs
NOTE
Great Bedwyn and Letsbefrank deserve focus as proven hold-up horses getting ideal tactical scenario
WATCH
Brielle and Cabrera both return from long breaks so watch for market confidence indicators
NOTE
Valley Of Flowers and Damascus Steel could outrun odds if pace setup develops as expected
5:45 — Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap
6f · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Al Shabab Storm likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Eternal Sunshine led; the map had Al Shabab Storm in front.
Fandom won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Al Shabab Storm
Prominent · 5
Dark ThirtyFluorescenceGangsta ManEternal SunshineManila Scouse
Midfield · 4
MilfordRusset GoldStrike RedYes I'm Mali
Hold Up · 4
AnnafSir YoshiFandomToyotomi
Al Shabab Storm will be the primary pace-setter from stall position, with Dark Thirty, Manila Scouse, Eternal Sunshine, Fluorescence and Gangsta Man all showing prominent tendencies that could apply early pressure. With multiple prominent runners in a 14-runner field over 6f at Thirsk, the pace is likely to be solid to strong from the start, creating a genuine test of stamina in the final furlong. The abundance of hold-up horses (Toyotomi, Russet Gold, Strike Red, Annaf, Milford, Sir Yoshi, Fandom, Yes I'm Mali) suggests many will be relying on the pace collapsing, but with this many prominent runners the pace should be genuine enough to set up a finish where those with tactical speed who can position handily will have the edge over pure closers.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Early Pace
45% probability
If the prominent runners (Dark Thirty, Manila Scouse, Eternal Sunshine, Fluorescence, Gangsta Man) all go forward with Al Shabab Storm
The pace becomes unsustainable and the field comes back to the hold-up horses who can quicken late. This favours the proven closers with tactical speed who can find gaps in a large field.
Yes I'm MaliFandomToyotomiAnnaf
B
Controlled Tempo
30% probability
If Al Shabab Storm gets an easy lead with only 1-2 prominent runners applying pressure
The pace becomes more sustainable allowing horses with early speed to maintain their position into the finish. Those who can track the pace without over-racing will have the tactical advantage.
Dark ThirtyManila ScouseFluorescenceGangsta Man
C
Messy Pace
15% probability
If the prominent runners get into a pace battle while Al Shabab Storm tries to steal a march
The race becomes stop-start with horses getting into trouble, favouring those with racing room and tactical awareness from good draws. Experience and a cool jockey become crucial factors.
Strike RedEternal SunshineManila ScouseYes I'm Mali
D
Crawling Pace
10% probability
If Al Shabab Storm gets left alone on the lead and none of the prominent runners want to engage early
The race becomes a sprint from the 2f pole favouring those with the highest cruising speed who can accelerate quickest. Pure speed horses with proven finishing kicks will dominate.
MilfordSir YoshiRusset GoldFluorescence
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Al Shabab Storm's early position will be crucial - if he gets an uncontested lead the pace could collapse and favour hold-up horses
WATCH
The prominent runners Dark Thirty, Manila Scouse and Eternal Sunshine could create pace pressure that sets up the closers
NOTE
Yes I'm Mali's finishing kick from his York second last Saturday suggests he's peaking at the right time
NOTE
Strike Red's draw position will be telling given his high draw was negative at York last time
WATCH
Fluorescence is returning from a 252-day break which adds uncertainty to his prominent running style
6:15 — Sky Bet For The Fans Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
2m · Good · HCAP · 14 runners
Lead contested: Anniversary v Treasure IslandsHISTORIC
How it ran
St Faz led; the map had Anniversary and Treasure Islands in front.
Mountain Road won at 10.00 — was held up, as the map had it.
5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
AnniversaryTreasure Islands
Prominent · 6
Elysian FlamePole StarMinstrel KnightAlmuhitHermeticSt Faz
Midfield · 2
GibsideArrange
Hold Up · 4
LaafyArtisan DancerNew York MinuteMountain Road
Anniversary and Treasure Islands will engage early, with Anniversary's front-running style clashing against Treasure Islands who made all at Ripon last time. Six prominent runners (Elysian Flame, Almuhit, Hermetic, St Faz, Pole Star, Minstrel Knight) create congestion behind the leaders, setting up tactical complications entering the home straight. The sustained gallop over 2m on good ground will expose stamina limitations and favour those who can settle off the pace. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses like Laafy, Artisan Dancer, Mountain Road, and Arrange who can exploit the inevitable pace collapse.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hold-up horses capitalize
65% probability
If Anniversary and Treasure Islands maintain honest gallop with prominent pack bunching
The sustained pace will stretch the field and create gaps for patient riders to exploit in the final 3f. Hold-up specialists with proven stamina reserves will have clear runs as the prominent brigade weakens.
LaafyArtisan DancerMountain RoadArrange
B
Prominent runner survives
20% probability
If one prominent runner can secure ideal position behind leaders without traffic issues
Elysian Flame or St Faz could benefit from the pace while avoiding early congestion, timing their challenge perfectly. Their class and recent form gives them edge over pure front-runners and late closers.
Elysian FlameSt FazHermeticAlmuhit
C
Front-runner dominates
10% probability
If Anniversary or Treasure Islands gets uncontested lead with others settling too far back
The leader builds insurmountable advantage as field allows too much rope, with stamina reserves proving decisive. Treasure Islands' recent make-all success at Ripon makes him primary beneficiary.
Treasure IslandsAnniversarySt FazPole Star
D
Midfield tactical move
5% probability
If prominent pack creates complete traffic jam allowing midfield runner clean passage
A horse like New York Minute or Gibside times run perfectly as favorites get hampered by pace dynamics. The AW experience of New York Minute could prove crucial in finding gaps.
New York MinuteGibsideMinstrel KnightPole Star
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Anniversary and Treasure Islands early pace battle could set up perfect scenario for hold-up horses
WATCH
Traffic problems developing 2f out as six prominent runners converge behind the leaders
WATCH
Laafy's 407-day absence and Brian Ellison's poor recent form could undermine hold-up scenario
NOTE
New York Minute's AW experience with Hector Crouch could provide tactical advantage in crowded finish
NOTE
St Faz carrying winning form and tactical speed to overcome prominent runner disadvantage
6:45 — Sky Bet Build A Bet Fillies' Handicap
1m · Good · HCAP · 12 runners
Lead contested: Mandarin Spirit v KrissyHISTORIC
How it ran
Mandarin Spirit led, as the map showed.
Annastarzy won at 15.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 2
Mandarin SpiritKrissy
Prominent · 5
BintazizaThankfullyWetsandRenewalAnnastarzy
Midfield · 1
Alessia Fernanda
Hold Up · 4
Perfect PartBridget's ViewThalunaGeo
Mandarin Spirit and Krissy will dispute the early lead, with both having strong front-running tendencies and recent form suggesting they'll go forward from the gates. Behind them, a significant traffic jam develops with Bintaziza, Thankfully, Renewal, Annastarzy, Alessia Fernanda, and Wetsand all wanting prominent positions - that's half the field cramming into the first four lengths. The dual pace angle up front should create an honest gallop over this flat mile, but the prominent congestion will cause interference and positioning battles from halfway. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay out of trouble and benefit from the strong pace, making Thaluna, Perfect Part, Bridget's View, and Geo the tactical beneficiaries.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Pace Collapse
45% probability
If Mandarin Spirit and Krissy go too fast early in their pace battle
The leaders weaken significantly in the final two furlongs as the honest gallop takes its toll, allowing closers with clean runs to sweep past. Hold-up specialists get ideal conditions with plenty of pace to aim at.
ThalunaGeoPerfect PartBridget's View
B
Prominent Traffic Chaos
30% probability
If the six prominent runners cause serious interference from the three-furlong pole
Multiple horses get hampered or forced wide in the congested pack, creating an uneven contest where position matters more than ability. Those who avoid the chaos or secure early prominent spots without traffic prosper.
BintazizaKrissyThankfullyAlessia Fernanda
C
Steady Pace Favor
15% probability
If one leader establishes control without serious pressure from the other
The pace becomes more manageable, reducing the advantage for hold-up horses and allowing the prominent runners to maintain their position more effectively. Well-positioned horses with tactical speed can strike from ideal spots.
RenewalAnnastarzyWetsandMandarin Spirit
D
Front Runner Dominance
10% probability
If Krissy uses her recent winning momentum to establish a clear lead without serious challenge
Her excellent recent form and proven front-running ability allow her to dictate terms and maintain enough energy for the finish despite the tactical disadvantage. The pace battle fails to materialize properly.
KrissyMandarin SpiritThankfullyBintaziza
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Serious interference likely from three furlongs out as Bintaziza, Thankfully, Renewal, Annastarzy, Alessia Fernanda and Wetsand fight for prominent positions
WATCH
Mandarin Spirit and Krissy pace battle could set up collapse if both refuse to compromise early
NOTE
Perfect Part benefits significantly if headgear addition sparks improvement to match her recent promising efforts
WATCH
Renewal's 239-day absence creates fitness doubt despite being well-treated by handicapper on old form
NOTE
Thaluna represents strongest closer credentials with Daniel Tudhope booking suggesting Haggas targets this race
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.