Archive›Thirsk · 5 September 2026

Thirsk

5 September 2026 · 8 races

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1:35 — Personal Touches Day Of Elegance Nursery Handicap Stakes

1m · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Empire Rising to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Prince Kameo led; the map had Empire Rising in front.

Prince Kameo won at 9.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Empire Rising

Prominent · 1

The Monkey King

Midfield · 4

Coco NovaOr AnotherSou'westerNorthern Viola

Hold Up · 3

Love TanyaAkarakaPrince Kameo

Empire Rising is the sole confirmed front-runner and, on this flat Thirsk mile on good-to-soft ground, she is expected to stride to the front unchallenged and dictate at a sustainable, controlled tempo. With no genuine rival willing or able to dispute the lead, the pace is unlikely to be truly searching, which historically at Thirsk favours horses who can travel prominently and pick up rather than those who need a true test of stamina from deep in the field. The Monkey King is the most natural prominent chaser and could sit a close second, while Love Tanya, Coco Nova, and Prince Kameo are capable of tracking the pace from mid-division. Crucially, Or Another, Sou'wester, and Northern Viola are all genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield on the map because the rear is over-populated; their true racing patterns are further back, meaning they face an additional challenge if the pace is modest. This race shape decisively favours prominent and lead-tracking profiles — horses who can sit within striking range of Empire Rising early and deploy their finishing effort with control, rather than closers who need a searching gallop to generate the momentum they require from far back.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Lone Leader Controls Tempo

62% probability

If Empire Rising bowls along uncontested at a fair-to-moderate pace with The Monkey King and Love Tanya tracking through the early stages.

Empire Rising dictates every yard, sets a comfortable fractions that keeps the held-up horses anchored at the rear with little time to reel her in over the final two furlongs; the prominent duo who travel well within themselves emerge as the chief dangers in the straight.

Empire RisingThe Monkey KingLove TanyaCoco Nova

Prominent Stalkers Pounce

20% probability

If Empire Rising's lead is measured rather than overly comfortable and the tracking pair build momentum from the home turn.

The Monkey King or Love Tanya, sitting a length or two off the leader into the final quarter-mile, produce a sustained challenge that the front runner cannot repel on softening ground; ground that tests stamina lightly suits these stepping-up travellers.

The Monkey KingLove TanyaCoco NovaPrince Kameo

Surprise Closer Lands Late

11% probability

If the pace develops enough genuine tempo — perhaps Coco Nova or Prince Kameo pushing forward — to create a genuine finish from further back.

A truer gallop stretches the field and allows a hold-up horse with reserves to pick up ground through the final furlong; Prince Kameo, most recently a winner over this trip on standard ground, is best positioned among the rear group to capitalise.

Prince KameoCoco NovaLove TanyaOr Another

Tactical Collapse Muddle

7% probability

If Empire Rising's tactics backfire — either she goes too fast early for soft ground or is shuffled back — causing a messy, stop-start race shape.

Confusion in the early stages disrupts expected positions, opening a window for a fortunate closer to emerge from the chaos, though the redistributed hold-up types would still need an exceptional run to benefit meaningfully.

Or AnotherPrince KameoNorthern ViolaSou'wester

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Empire Rising's early pace — if she is allowed to stride clear unchallenged through the first half-mile, prominent stalkers The Monkey King and Love Tanya are the chief dangers, but a collapse in her gallop before the turn could open the race to any finisher.|

WATCH

The Monkey King's jockey Rhys Clutterbuck must decide immediately whether to press up to track Empire Rising or settle further back; if he is caught in no-man's-land between the leader and the midfield pack, he could be outpaced when the race quickens.|

WATCH

Or Another, Sou'wester, and Northern Viola are all genuine closers mapped forward on the diagram artificially — if the tempo does not genuinely test stamina over this mile, all three face a near-impossible task converting their natural style into a winning position.|

NOTE

The going is officially good-to-soft at this race's time per the going report — softer than many of these runners' best form, and Empire Rising's one run on soft (11th of 6f) is a mild flag if the ground deteriorates further through the card.|

NOTE

Prince Kameo ran just nine days ago and won; monitor for any freshness concerns or jockey instructions from Kevin Stott that suggest connections are managing the horse rather than expecting a peak effort second time out in quick succession.|

2:05 — Jw4x4 Northallerton Nursery Handicap Stakes

5f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Lead contested: Black Velvet Boy v Roots In ToucheHISTORIC

How it ran

Princesse d'Orange led; the map had Black Velvet Boy and Roots In Touche in front.

This Moment won at 10.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Black Velvet BoyRoots In Touche

Prominent · 4

This MomentPrincesse d'OrangeFurturraConcert Pitch

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 3

Savage MarinerAnchianoCasino Star

Black Velvet Boy and Roots In Touche are both confirmed front-runners who will contest the lead from the outset over this flat 5f at Thirsk on Good To Soft ground, creating a genuinely contested early pace rather than a soft, uncontested gallop. This pace battle is further complicated by Concert Pitch, This Moment, Furturra, and Princesse d'Orange all wanting prominent positions, meaning four of nine runners will be scrapping for the first two or three spots inside the opening furlong — a recipe for traffic and positional friction 2-3 furlongs out as the pace group concertinas. The contested nature of the lead should ensure the early fractions are honest rather than crawling, which on soft ground will extract a genuine stamina toll on those burning fuel up front. This race shape most favours hold-up horses and late finishers with genuine soft-ground credentials, as the pace war will leave a gap for closers to exploit in the final furlong — though the field holds more front-running and prominent types than can all achieve their ideal berth, with Black Velvet Boy (stronger recent form, 1-1 in last two) most likely to actually secure the lead over Roots In Touche.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Pace Duel Burns Leaders

58% probability

If Black Velvet Boy and Roots In Touche fight for the lead and set a testing gallop that softens the prominent group.

The contested early pace drains the front-runners and prominent horses in the soft ground, leaving the closers with a clear advantage entering the final furlong as the leaders tie up.

Casino StarAnchianoConcert PitchPrincesse d'Orange

Prominent Horse Capitalises

22% probability

If the pace duel is moderate rather than brutal and one prominent tracker sits close enough to pounce without being burned.

A prominent runner positioned second or third settles just off the contested lead and has enough left to outfinish the tiring pace-setters; soft ground suits those who travel economically within a group rather than those leading or chasing hard.

Concert PitchThis MomentPrincesse d'OrangeFurturra

Front Runner Grinds Clear

12% probability

If one of the lead pair secures a clear advantage early and the pace is not as searingly contested as feared.

Black Velvet Boy, on the back of back-to-back wins, could dictate a controlled gallop and prove hard to reel in on 5f where there is no time to recover; this scenario requires Roots In Touche to capitulate quickly in the battle for supremacy.

Black Velvet BoyRoots In ToucheThis MomentFurturra

Closers Left Too Much To Do

8% probability

If the pace is surprisingly moderate and prominent types get a soft lead, leaving hold-up horses with insufficient time to close over only 5f.

In a 5f sprint on a flat track, even soft ground rarely creates enough pace collapse to allow pure hold-up horses to motor through from the back if the early splits are steady; Casino Star and Savage Mariner would find themselves finishing into beaten horses.

This MomentConcert PitchFurturraBlack Velvet Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Black Velvet Boy and Roots In Touche — if either edges the lead battle decisively in the first furlong, the losing front-runner will bleed energy for the rest of the 5f and the pace shape changes entirely.

WATCH

Concert Pitch, This Moment, Furturra, and Princesse d'Orange — four prominent runners cannot all get their preferred second or third slot; whoever gets squeezed or has to check entering the first furlong could be beaten before the race begins.

WATCH

Anchiano — 44 days off for George Scott's runner means fitness is unproven; if sharp, the hold-up profile suits the scenario, but a backward showing would be a red flag for future reference.

NOTE

Savage Mariner — hood and a fading-in-finish flag with four consecutive poor efforts means watch how he travels in the early stages; any sign of reluctance or dropping back immediately would confirm the trend rather than reverse it.

NOTE

Going confirmation listed as Good To Soft throughout Thirsk's card — softer than the headline SOFT description, which may reduce the stamina advantage for pure hold-up types and keep the race slightly more open for prominent runners than the pace dynamic alone suggests.

2:40 — British Stallion Studs Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

6f · Soft · NOV · 13 runners

Uncle Zello likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Dontlookanyfurther won at 3.75 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Uncle Zello

Prominent · 3

Ma Blushin RosieDontlookanyfurtherCallisterra

Midfield · 5

Rum PointReddyPippy BoyLord BishopHair Raising

Hold Up · 4

Voyager OneTextingScottys RocketMalulee

Uncle Zello is the one confirmed front-runner in this 13-runner field and, with no significant challenger disputing the lead, he is expected to bowl along at a sustainable gallop on the Good to Soft ground at Thirsk's flat 6f. Ma Blushin Rosie, Callisterra, and Dontlookanyfurther will press forward from the prominent positions, creating a competitive but not frantic early tempo that is unlikely to be truly searching on this surface. The bulk of the field — Scottys Rocket, Texting, Voyager One, Hair Raising, and Malulee — are genuine hold-up or midfield types who will need the pace to collapse late, but with Uncle Zello setting an unchallenged rhythm that rate is unlikely to become punishing enough to bring all of them home. Hair Raising, a true hold-up horse redistributed to mapped midfield because the rear is overcrowded with hold-up types, cannot rely on getting its natural deep position, further compromising its chance. The tactical verdict is clear: this race shape favours prominent racers who can track the steady lead and pick it up in the final two furlongs, rather than genuine closers who need a truly honest gallop to close the gap.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Types Dominate

62% probability

If Uncle Zello controls a sustainable gallop and the hold-up horses fail to generate sufficient momentum off a modest pace.

Uncle Zello dictates from the front with Ma Blushin Rosie and Callisterra tracking closely, and the race resolves in the final furlong as those prominent types use their positional advantage on ground that rewards those travelling smoothly.

CallisterraMa Blushin RosieDontlookanyfurtherUncle Zello

Debutants Surprise

18% probability

If one or more of the lightly-raced unknown horses (Lord Bishop, Pippy Boy, Rum Point) shows superior raw ability on debut and outruns their inexperience.

An unknown with unexposed ability tracks the pace handily and, unencumbered by prior limitations, finds a decisive turn of foot in the final furlong that experienced runners cannot match.

Lord BishopRum PointPippy BoyReddy

Hold-Up Closers Pounce

12% probability

If the pace proves stronger than expected, burning out the prominent horses and allowing genuine hold-up types to come home fast.

Scottys Rocket or Voyager One would need to be produced very late with a sustained run, benefiting from any fade in the front group, though the modest pace makes this scenario materially less likely given their redistributed or natural rear positions.

Scottys RocketVoyager OneTextingHair Raising

Pace Collapse Chaos

8% probability

If Uncle Zello goes too hard early relative to conditions and the whole field tightens up in a scramble home.

A compressed finish in the final furlong would bring all styles into play, but horses with a strong finishing kick and clean passage — likely those just off the pace — would benefit most from the resulting tactical lottery.

DontlookanyfurtherReddyCallisterraMa Blushin Rosie

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Uncle Zello must be tracked from the break — if he is seriously challenged for the lead by Ma Blushin Rosie or Dontlookanyfurther the pace could spike sharply, reshaping the entire tactical picture and opening the door for hold-up horses.

WATCH

Malulee's tendency to fade in the finish combined with 39 days off and soft ground over 6f creates a welfare and interference risk if she weakens sharply into the path of hold-up horses coming from behind in the final two furlongs.

WATCH

Hair Raising cannot be expected to get her natural deep position in a 13-runner field with this many hold-up types; James Sullivan's positioning decision in the first furlong will be critical — if she is stuck wide and deep she is running at a structural disadvantage.

NOTE

The three debutants — Lord Bishop, Pippy Boy, and Rum Point — are entirely unknown quantities in terms of breaking habits and early positioning; a poor break from any of them in a field of 13 on soft ground could cause significant interference in the early stages.

NOTE

Dontlookanyfurther carries top weight at 134lbs, a significant burden on Good to Soft ground in a novice field; watch whether Jason Hart rides him handy or drops him in, as his weight-carrying ability over 6f soft will be tested against his prominent profile.

3:15 — British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Handicap Stakes

7f · Soft · HCAP · 6 runners

Oolong Poobong likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Figjam led; the map had Oolong Poobong in front.

Oolong Poobong won at 2.25 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Oolong Poobong

Prominent · 1

Passing Thought

Midfield · 2

Cotai BelleProposal

Hold Up · 2

FigjamPerfect Part

Oolong Poobong is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead in this six-runner field, she is set to bowl along at a controlled, sustainable gallop over Thirsk's 7f on good-to-soft ground. Passing Thought and Proposal both carry prominent tendencies but the field holds more pace-biased types than the map can accommodate — Cotai Belle and Proposal are true prominent racers who will likely be shuffled into midfield positions they do not naturally want, compromising their ability to race to their strengths. The most likely shape is therefore a moderately-run, uncontested lead for Oolong Poobong through the first half of the race, setting up a stern test from the two-furlong pole on soft-ish ground. This race shape strongly favours hold-up runners and genuine closers who can absorb the pace and finish through beaten horses late, with Figjam and Perfect Part the profile types built for exactly this scenario.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Oolong Controls, Closers Finish

68% probability

If Oolong Poobong dictates an honest but uncontested gallop and the race develops into a genuine stamina test in the closing stages on good-to-soft ground.

Oolong Poobong sets the fractions from the front while Figjam and Perfect Part stalk from the rear and unleash their finishing efforts in the final two furlongs; soft ground stretches the field and rewards those with the best late reserves.

FigjamPerfect PartPassing ThoughtOolong Poobong

Passing Thought Front-Runs, Dominates

15% probability

If Passing Thought pushes forward aggressively at the start and takes over or presses Oolong Poobong into a hot pace that backfires on the leader.

With two pace angles in front the gallop increases materially and the race becomes a true test of stamina at 7f on soft, favouring a horse that can travel prominently and outstay rivals; Passing Thought's two wins on soft and good-to-soft mark her as a genuine candidate if she bounces into form.

Passing ThoughtFigjamPerfect PartProposal

Closers Caught Cold, Leader Outstays

10% probability

If Oolong Poobong steals an uncontested lead at a deceptively slow early pace and the hold-up brigade are too far back to close the gap.

A falsely-run race that never truly tests the front-runner allows Oolong Poobong to build a lead that proves insurmountable from the two-furlong mark; hold-up runners lack the early position to deliver their challenge in time on ground that does not promote rapid acceleration.

Oolong PoobongCotai BelleProposalPassing Thought

Redistributed Types Disrupt Shape

7% probability

If Cotai Belle or Proposal force their way closer to the pace than their mapped positions suggest, creating a contested early gallop that scrambles the anticipated race shape.

A more pressured pace would shorten the finishing straight battle and potentially benefit a prominent-travelling type who has conserved energy rather than a pure front-runner; however, because both Cotai Belle and Proposal are racing outside their natural position in this field, the scenario is inherently low-probability and its execution is uncertain.

Cotai BelleProposalPassing ThoughtFigjam

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Oolong Poobong's ability to control fractions unchallenged is the single biggest race-shape lever — if she gets a clean break and soft early sectionals, the hold-up runners face a genuine timing problem in the closing stages.

WATCH

Passing Thought and Cotai Belle both carry forward-going tendencies, and any early jostling for position between them in the first furlong could inflate the pace beyond Oolong Poobong's comfort zone, dramatically changing the complexion of the race.

WATCH

Proposal's 39-day absence combined with racing out of her natural position means she is a horse to monitor in-running rather than pre-race — Haggas runners can return fresh but the tactical compromise here is real.

NOTE

Good-to-soft at Thirsk over 7f historically rewards horses with proven soft-ground form and genuine stamina; Perfect Part's placed run at 7f on soft is directly relevant, while Figjam's ten-length defeat last time on soft should be set against a weak-finishing effort rather than a ground concern.

NOTE

The five-pound claimer on Cotai Belle (Ethan Tindall) and the three-pound claimer on Passing Thought (Ashley Lewis) are weight-saving factors worth tracking — in a low-key six-runner handicap, those allowances can be meaningful in a tight finish.

3:50 — Rudding Park Harrogate Handicap Stakes

6f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Ray Mon Dough to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Grasmere Boy and Midnight Thunder led; the map had Ray Mon Dough in front.

Grasmere Boy won at 6.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ray Mon Dough

Prominent · 4

Dark Cloud RisingMidnight ThunderCommanche FallsGrasmere Boy

Midfield · 2

The Good BiscuitFivethousandtoone

Hold Up · 3

Mostar DreamsDapper ValleyMusical Touch

Ray Mon Dough is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no genuine challenger for the lead, Kevin Stott can dictate a controlled, honest gallop on good-to-soft ground without being pressured into overdoing it. Behind him, Grasmere Boy, Midnight Thunder, Commanche Falls, and Dark Cloud Rising all want to race prominently, creating a congested group of four chasing the same real estate between the 3f and 2f markers — traffic incidents in this pocket are a real danger. The Good Biscuit is a natural prominent type and Fivethousandtoone a natural hold-up horse; both are displaced by the volume of pace in this field and will not secure their preferred positions, meaning their redistribution to midfield is a concession rather than a tactical choice. On good-to-soft at Thirsk over 6f with a lone uncontested leader setting a sustainable tempo, this race shape strongly favours prominent runners who can track Ray Mon Dough in clean air and produce a one-two punch in the final furlong, rather than hold-up horses who must navigate through a congested midfield pack.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leader Controls, Prominent Strikes

62% probability

If Ray Mon Dough dictates an uncontested, measured pace and the prominent chasers track cleanly in his wake.

Ray Mon Dough sets a sustainable tempo on the good-to-soft surface, and the best of the prominent stalkers — ideally one who escapes the four-wide scrum — runs him down or presses past inside the final furlong. This is the dominant shape: a lone leader, soft ground that rewards those who conserve energy by sitting second or third, and no pace collapse to help closers.

Ray Mon DoughDark Cloud RisingGrasmere BoyMidnight Thunder

Prominent Pack Scrambles Clear

18% probability

If the four prominent runners fight for position 2-4f out, burning energy, and the cleanest traveller among them emerges while the leader fades.

The congestion between Grasmere Boy, Midnight Thunder, Commanche Falls, and Dark Cloud Rising produces a messy middle sector, but the horse who finds the cleanest route — likely the one with most tactical speed — arrives at the 1f pole with enough left to reel in a tiring Ray Mon Dough. Soft ground amplifies the cost of the early barging, favouring the runner who threads through without losing rhythm.

Grasmere BoyCommanche FallsDark Cloud RisingMidnight Thunder

Late Closers Profit From Chaos

13% probability

If the prominent group burns each other out mid-race and the pace is genuinely strong enough to bring hold-up runners into play.

A chaotic early scramble for prominent positions elevates the tempo beyond what soft ground can sustain, leaving gaps for horses coming from off the pace, though Mostar Dreams steps down sharply in trip from 8f and Dapper Valley has been in form; Musical Touch has a soft-ground concern based on recent history. This scenario is partially undermined by the fact that Fivethousandtoone, a redistributed hold-up type, is not in its natural position and The Good Biscuit is similarly displaced.

Mostar DreamsDapper ValleyMusical TouchFivethousandtoone

Leader Makes All Unchallenged

7% probability

If no prominent runner finds the energy or position to mount a sustained challenge and Ray Mon Dough simply gets away clean and stays there.

On a flat track with soft ground, a fully uncontested Ray Mon Dough who is never headed could prove very hard to reel in if the chasing group wastes energy jostling, and Kevin Stott is adept at judging pace on this type of surface. This is a low-probability but genuine scenario if the prominent congestion behind him is more destructive than expected.

Ray Mon DoughGrasmere BoyMidnight ThunderDark Cloud Rising

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Prominent congestion — Grasmere Boy, Midnight Thunder, Commanche Falls, and Dark Cloud Rising will all seek to slot second or third behind Ray Mon Dough, making a physical battle for position between the 4f and 3f markers almost certain, with the horse that escapes cleanest likely to dominate the finish.

WATCH

Dark Cloud Rising's going record — he has only one career start on soft ground from 15 runs and it produced a non-completion; if the surface is testing he may underperform his handicap mark despite good recent form.

WATCH

Mostar Dreams' trip drop — all five runs in his recent form file are at 7f or 8f; dropping to 6f on soft ground with a jockey flying in from Ireland is a combination of unknowns that the market may not fully price.

NOTE

Ray Mon Dough's lead exposure — if Kevin Stott is forced to go faster than he intends by any prominent rival getting on his shoulder early, the resulting stronger gallop would erode his stamina advantage and bring the hold-up horses into play more than the base scenario suggests.

NOTE

The Good Biscuit and Fivethousandtoone will not race in their natural positions; backers of either should note their chance is partly contingent on benefiting from trouble in running rather than executing a clean tactical plan.

4:25 — Calverts Carpets Hambleton Cup Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

1m4f · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners

High Storm likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Mr Bollinger led; the map had High Storm in front.

High Storm won at 4.50. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

High Storm

Prominent · 2

Bay Of MythsKisiyra

Midfield · 3

WardlawKnightsailMr Bollinger

Hold Up · 2

Spirit Of AcklamWhat's The Plan

High Storm is the one confirmed front-runner in this eight-runner field and, with no rival likely to seriously contest the lead, he should be allowed to roll along at a measured, uncontested tempo over the 1m4f trip on Good to Soft ground. That controlled pace is unlikely to be truly searching, which means the horses sitting just off him in the prominent group — Bay Of Myths and Kisiyra — will travel comfortably without burning energy, while the genuine hold-up horses bunched in behind must hope the pace is strong enough to set up a meaningful late run. Wardlaw, Knightsail, and Mr Bollinger are authentic closers who have been mapped into midfield because the field contains more hold-up horses than can realistically operate from their preferred rear position; of the three, Wardlaw (with the strongest recent form) is most likely to find a position closer to the pace than usual, while Knightsail and Mr Bollinger may be forced wider or further back than ideal. This race shape — an uncontested, moderate gallop set by one front-runner on a flat, testing surface — strongly favours horses who travel prominently and conserve energy before hitting the front at the two-furlong pole, rather than those relying on a strong pace to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

High Storm Controls Cleanly

62% probability

If High Storm is allowed to bowl along unchallenged and the pace remains honest but not suicidal, horses who track him prominently have every advantage.

High Storm dictates a steady, sustainable gallop and the runners locked on his heels travel within themselves; as the tempo lifts entering the final two furlongs, Bay Of Myths and Kisiyra are ideally placed to pick him off or run him down.

Bay Of MythsKisiyraHigh StormWhat's The Plan

Front-Runner Holds On

18% probability

If the Good to Soft ground is more testing than expected and the prominent horses lack the finishing kick to reel High Storm in.

High Storm, having been off 99 days but trained by K.R. Burke who regularly produces horses fit on return, builds a lead with energy in the tank and the soft ground blunts the finishing speed of those chasing; he simply keeps finding without being caught.

High StormBay Of MythsKisiyraWhat's The Plan

Hold-Ups Finish Fast

13% probability

If the pace is stronger than anticipated and the final two furlongs become a genuine stamina test, giving the true closers a rare chance to close.

Wardlaw, despite being nudged forward from his natural last-to-first role, has the best recent form in the field and could produce a powerful late run if the race develops into a slog; What's The Plan also stays well and would relish a genuinely run 1m4f on this surface.

WardlawWhat's The PlanSpirit Of AcklamMr Bollinger

Outsider Lands It

7% probability

If there is significant market drift in the main fancies and one of the lightly-exposed or unexposed types outperforms their handicap mark.

Bay Of Myths, with only two career runs, remains a largely unexposed three-year-old who won on his debut and could be on a lenient opening mark; Mr Bollinger's win-and-place record at 12f on good ground gives him an outside chance if the pace scenario suits.

Bay Of MythsMr BollingerKnightsailKisiyra

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch whether Bay Of Myths — who has raced just twice — is fully wound up after 138 days off; if he travels easily tracking High Storm in the early stages it is a strong signal he is fit and potentially well-handicapped on his opening mark.

WATCH

High Storm's front-running role must be confirmed in the first furlong; if Bay Of Myths or Kisiyra push for the lead early, the pace will quicken and the race shape shifts significantly away from Scenario A.

WATCH

Wardlaw's starting price and market movement is worth monitoring — Sir Mark Prescott rarely runs a three-year-old in this grade without confidence, and if the market shortens him, his compressed running style in this field should not be underestimated.

NOTE

The Good to Soft ground at Thirsk today is consistent across all distances on the card, meaning no horse benefits from a false going report — stamina and soft-ground proven form should be taken at face value throughout.

NOTE

Knightsail and Mr Bollinger are both genuine closers forced toward a midfield position; if neither can access the rail or a clear run in the final quarter-mile, their races may be run before the last two furlongs regardless of their ability.

5:00 — Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference & Events Venue Handicap Stakes (Div I)

7f · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners

Good Karma to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Good Karma and Native Instinct and Kosometsuke led, as the map showed.

Andesite won at 6.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Good Karma

Prominent · 1

Mythical Phoenix

Midfield · 5

Frankies DreamWreck It RyleyNative InstinctIntrusivelyNative Honey

Hold Up · 3

KosometsukeMisunderstoodAndesite

Good Karma is the sole confirmed front-runner and, at OR=61, will stride out from the gates and aim to control proceedings from the front without any obvious challenger to press them into a genuinely strong gallop. On Good To Soft ground over 7f at Thirsk — a flat, fair track that does not inherently punish front-runners — a single pace-setter dictating at a controlled tempo creates a classic setup where those tracking close behind can travel sweetly without burning energy, making a prominent or close-tracking profile the most dangerous weapon. The hold-up brigade, which dominates this field numerically, will need Good Karma to fail and the pace to collapse late to deliver the ground they need, but with no genuine pace battle to sharpen the tempo that outcome is far from guaranteed. This race shape firmly favours horses able to race within two or three lengths of Good Karma through the middle stages and produce a sustained, rather than explosive, late challenge — the prominent/close-tracking profile is the clear beneficiary. Several runners are genuinely redistibuted here: Frankies Dream, Wreck It Ryley, Native Instinct, Intrusively and Native Honey are all natural hold-up types shown in midfield on the map, but with so many needing cover at the rear, they cannot all get their preferred position; the horses most likely to actually secure a prominent berth are Mythical Phoenix and whichever of the redistributed types can break sharply enough to pivot forward.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Good Karma Controls Cleanly

58% probability

If Good Karma leads uncontested and the pace settles into a steady-moderate rhythm, allowing those tracking within two lengths to conserve energy.

Good Karma sets a manageable tempo on soft ground, and horses that have tracked the leader prominently arrive at the 2f marker with enough in reserve to mount a sustained challenge rather than a sprint; the prominent racers and close trackers are perfectly placed to pounce.

Mythical PhoenixNative InstinctKosometsukeMisunderstood

Held-Up Types Land Late

18% probability

If Good Karma goes too hard early and the soft ground extracts a toll in the final furlong, cracking the pace open for genuine closers.

Good Karma, without the natural ability of a higher-rated horse, may overcook the pace trying to steal a march, leaving them vulnerable late as the ground bites; genuine hold-up horses who have raced well on soft previously could sweep through.

MisunderstoodKosometsukeAndesiteNative Honey

Pace Collapse Midrace

14% probability

If Good Karma fades abruptly before the 2f marker, turning the race into a sprint home from midfield.

A soft-ground 7f with a lone exposed pace-setter can produce a sudden deceleration rather than a gradual fade, bunching the field and rewarding the horse with the freshest legs and best finishing kick; horses with recent soft-ground form and tactical versatility benefit most.

Native InstinctMisunderstoodKosometsukeMythical Phoenix

Prominent Types Dominate Finish

10% probability

If one of the redistributed hold-up types breaks sharply and secures an unplanned prominent position, racing into a slot that suits them better than their usual style.

A horse like Native Instinct or Native Honey, breaking well and settling just off Good Karma's shoulder, could exploit the soft ground's premium on relaxed travelling and produce a strong sustained run; this scenario is discounted because it relies on horses racing out of their natural role with limited precedent at this trip.

Native HoneyNative InstinctFrankies DreamWreck It Ryley

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Good Karma's early tempo is the single most important factor — watch whether Ethan Tindall elects to stride clear or ration energy; if Good Karma is allowed to coast, every hold-up horse in the field loses its only hope of a winning run-in.

WATCH

Wreck It Ryley is listed as a non-runner — confirm declarations before betting as its removal reduces the number of runners and alters the pace dynamic marginally, though the overall shape remains the same with Good Karma still the sole leader.

WATCH

With Frankies Dream, Intrusively, Native Honey and Native Instinct all naturally wanting cover at the rear, watch for a congested, wide finish in the final furlong as multiple hold-up types emerge simultaneously — this could compromise several of their chances through interference.

NOTE

Native Instinct is the only horse in the field combining a soft-ground win over 7f with a placed record on similar going — if the pace does collapse late, watch this runner emerge from the pack as the most empirically-qualified closer in the race.

NOTE

Misunderstood has placed three times on soft going across recent runs and arrives fresh off a 7-day turnaround for a trainer in form — watch whether Jason Hart opts to track closer than usual given the lack of pace pressure, which would markedly improve this horse's chance.

5:35 — Thirsk Racecourse Ideal Conference & Events Venue Handicap Stakes (Div II)

7f · Soft · HCAP · 9 runners

Stanley Spencer likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Fiscal Policy led; the map had Stanley Spencer in front.

Nyman won at 4.33 — raced midfield, as the map had it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Stanley Spencer

Prominent · 2

Capital GuaranteeFiscal Policy

Midfield · 3

Imperial GuardPacketofbiscuitsNyman

Hold Up · 3

ObelixMr KingMidnight Strike

Stanley Spencer is the sole confirmed front runner and, with Fiscal Policy and Capital Guarantee as the only other prominent types, the early gallop is likely to be controlled and measured rather than truly contested. On soft ground over 7f at Thirsk, a sustainable pace set by Stanley Spencer creates a race that stretches out steadily rather than explodes — the sectionals will compress late, rewarding those who can travel well through the race rather than those waiting for a sudden injection of speed. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate at the rear: Imperial Guard, Packetofbiscuits, and Nyman are genuine closers who will be shuffled into midfield positions rather than their natural berths, meaning their ability to produce a true late run from off the pace is compromised. This race shape — a lone, uncontested front runner on soft ground setting a steady gallop — classically favours prominent racers or those who can slot in behind the leader and get a clear, uninterrupted run, rather than the hold-up brigade who will be squeezed for daylight mid-race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Lead, Prominent Wins

62% probability

If Stanley Spencer dictates an uncontested, measured pace and the prominent racers track him into the straight.

Stanley Spencer rolls along on soft ground at a pace that suits a sustained gallop, and horses who sit second or third travel comfortably before asserting from the 2f pole; the soft ground rewards those with genuine stamina who have not been asked early questions.

Capital GuaranteeFiscal PolicyStanley SpencerMidnight Strike

Leader Holds On

18% probability

If Stanley Spencer settles into a rhythm so comfortable on the soft ground that the field cannot close him down.

With no rival willing or able to pressurise him, Stanley Spencer banks early energy and repels challengers deep into the 7f trip; soft going blunts the finishing kick of closers who never get into a meaningful rhythm behind.

Stanley SpencerFiscal PolicyCapital GuaranteeObelix

Hold-Up Horse Picks Through

12% probability

If the pace is genuinely fast enough early to string the field out and create a gap for a late-running type to pick through.

A horse from the midfield pack — where the redistributed hold-up types have been placed against their natural grain — finds a passage in the final furlong; this shape is less likely because Imperial Guard, Packetofbiscuits, and Nyman are not running from their true position.

Midnight StrikeObelixMr KingNyman

Chaotic Soft-Ground Finish

8% probability

If the soft ground deteriorates sharply and the race turns into an attritional slog where stamina overrides tactics entirely.

Tired rivals begin to stop in the testing conditions from 2f out, leaving the race wide open for any horse still finding a stride; this scenario depends on conditions being materially worse than the going report suggests and is the least predictable shape.

Midnight StrikeMr KingObelixNyman

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Stanley Spencer sets the early fractions unchallenged — if he gets away at a crawl on soft ground, prominent horses Capital Guarantee and Fiscal Policy must decide at once whether to push up and pressurise him or surrender the race shape entirely.

WATCH

Imperial Guard's impressive recent winning sequence (three from four) makes him the form horse, but his true hold-up style is compromised by being mapped to midfield — watch whether Connor Beasley can find a clear passage in the final 2f or gets boxed in behind a tiring wall.

WATCH

Obelix and Mr King both carry the ⚠ fade-in-finish flag, and soft ground at Thirsk over 7f will ruthlessly expose any tendency to idle — if either travels prominently into the straight they may empty sharply in the final furlong.

NOTE

The going report confirms soft conditions consistent across all races today — any horse whose sim-going record is heavily tilted toward good ground (Capital Guarantee, Obelix, Midnight Strike) faces a genuine unknown that the form figures cannot fully account for.

NOTE

Three apprentice or claiming jockeys are not represented here, but Finlay Bassett's 7lb claim on Packetofbiscuits is worth monitoring at the draw/early-position stage — a hold-up horse with a light weight could be vulnerable to a poor break that buries it even deeper than the redistributed midfield slot already implies.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 5 September 2026.

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