Anyway won at 7.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.
1 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Rocky's Diamond
Prominent · 1
Anyway
Midfield · 1
Rodeo Joe
Hold Up · 2
ThecompanysergeantMore Coko
Rocky's Diamond is the lone confirmed front-runner and, with only five runners and no genuine pace rival to push him, Declan Queally's six-year-old should be able to dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop throughout the 2m6f trip on yielding ground at Tramore. Thecompanysergeant, More Coko, and Rodeo Joe are all natural hold-up horses, while Anyway will look to track from a prominent position but is unlikely to force the pace. This creates a scenario where Rocky's Diamond can set an honest but unhurried tempo, potentially controlling the fractions and presenting himself fresh at every fence — a shape that strongly favours a front-runner capable of jumping and staying at their own rhythm rather than deep closers who need a searching gallop to reel them in. The field holds more hold-up types than the map can accommodate, and while Rodeo Joe is redistributed to midfield for mapping purposes, its true role is at the rear; the closers here will need a genuine injection of pace in the final half-mile to close on a leader who has controlled his own race.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Rocky's Diamond Controls
71% probability
If Rocky's Diamond is allowed to dictate a measured, uncontested pace from the front and jumps accurately throughout.
Rocky's Diamond sets the fractions on his own terms, conserving energy through the yielding ground, and has enough left to repel any late challenge from the hold-up brigade.
Rocky's DiamondAnywayThecompanysergeantMore Coko
B
Closers Reel Him In
15% probability
If Rocky's Diamond sets a genuinely strong pace that burns his energy reserves, opening the door for the hold-up horses late.
Thecompanysergeant and More Coko, operating from the rear, would relish a truly-run race that creates maximum attrition over the final two fences and the run-in.
ThecompanysergeantMore CokoAnywayRodeo Joe
C
Anyway Tracks and Pounces
9% probability
If Anyway travels powerfully just off Rocky's Diamond's shoulder and the leader fades in the straight.
With a prominent racing style and form showing competitive runs at this sort of trip, Anyway could exploit any weakness in the leader at the business end of the race.
AnywayThecompanysergeantRocky's DiamondMore Coko
D
Chaos Disrupts Shape
5% probability
If Rocky's Diamond makes a significant jumping error early, scrambling the race order and forcing a different pace dynamic.
A mid-race reshuffle on yielding ground at Tramore could compress the field and produce a sprint finish that suits a horse with residual freshness — Thecompanysergeant's recent course form would make him dangerous in that scenario.
ThecompanysergeantMore CokoAnywayRocky's Diamond
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Rocky's Diamond's jumping at the early fences — a clean round will entrench his tactical advantage, but any error on yielding ground could collapse the 71% dominant scenario and let the closers back into it.
WATCH
Monitor the pace at the halfway point; if Rocky's Diamond has set an unusually slow tempo, Anyway may be poised just behind and could pounce before the hold-up horses can wind up, shifting weight from Scenario A to Scenario C.
WATCH
Thecompanysergeant has blinkers fitted and Donoghue is a seasoned jumps jockey — if the hold-up scenario does materialise, this pairing represents the most credible threat from the rear, especially given two recent finishes of 1st and 2nd.
NOTE
More Coko's 131-day absence combined with a significant step up in trip (from 16-17f to 2m6f) is a notable query; watch in-running for any sign of distress approaching the final two fences which would confirm he needs this run.
NOTE
Rodeo Joe has shown a tendency to fade in the finish in limited form, and being pushed into a midfield position out of natural role means his running style creates no meaningful race-shape pressure — watch to see whether Brouder elects to track closer than expected, which would be the only way this horse becomes relevant.
5:40 — I.P.R.S. Handicap Steeplechase
2m6f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 17 runners
Dunany Point to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Fr Gilligansvoyge led; the map had Dunany Point in front.
Fr Gilligansvoyge won at 15.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
4 of 12 runners raced in the group the map gave them
CorkbegBob The BuilderU Asking MeSet The ToneFr GilligansvoygeRobin Elite
Hold Up · 5
Shantou ShowPirate IslandOur ZeboTropical ImageNot So Serious
Dunany Point is the sole confirmed front-runner in a field of 17 and will stride to the front unchallenged, setting a controlled, sustainable gallop over 2m6f of yielding Tramore ground. Behind him, Menas Miracle, Mercurial Sea, My Cullen, and Thewaybackhome will press for prominent positions, creating a compact and competitive early order without burning excessive pace. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the rear of the field can accommodate — Corkbeg, Bob The Builder, Fr Gilligansvoyge, Set The Tone, Robin Elite, and U Asking Me are all genuine hold-up horses but several will be forced to race more prominently than they prefer, compromising their ability to produce their natural late run. With one honest front-runner controlling an honest but unforced gallop on yielding ground over this stamina-testing trip, this race shape most strongly favours prominent racers who can travel with cover in second or third, conserve energy through the middle, and pick off the leader from the second-last fence — giving horses like Menas Miracle, Thewaybackhome, and Tropical Image the clearest tactical advantage.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Dunany Point Dictates, Prominent Pounce
52% probability
If Dunany Point leads at a sustainable clip and prominent challengers track him into the straight with fuel in reserve.
Dunany Point's uncontested lead on yielding ground sets a rhythm that suits horses who have travelled prominently — they reach the last fence with enough left to wear him down or stride past. Menas Miracle, Thewaybackhome, and My Cullen are ideally drawn in terms of race position and all have the stamina profile for this trip on this ground.
ThewaybackhomeMenas MiracleMy CullenMercurial Sea
B
Leader Runs Them Ragged, Stays On
22% probability
If Dunany Point's pace proves more relentless than it appears and the prominent horses overcook it chasing him.
Dunany Point, suited by forcing tactics and relatively lightly weighted at OR 85, gallops the field into submission on the long Tramore run-in, with the pack failing to close. Horses that sat slightly deeper and conserved — Not So Serious and Tropical Image — finish strongest of all without quite getting to him.
Dunany PointNot So SeriousTropical ImageShantou Show
C
Midfield Stalker Finishes Best
17% probability
If the early pace is genuinely honest enough to see prominent horses tied up, allowing a resolute midfield traveller to reel them in.
A horse that sits sixth to eighth with a smooth passage and jumps well throughout finds the prominent pack emptying after the second-last, allowing a strong, stamina-based finish to tell. Tropical Image and Not So Serious — both effective hold-up performers not overly displaced by the race shape — profile best here.
Tropical ImageNot So SeriousFr GilligansvoygeSet The Tone
D
Chaos Scrambles the Order
9% probability
If jumping errors, a crowded 17-runner field, or early fallers disrupt the expected pace structure entirely.
With 17 runners on a track like Tramore, incidents are genuinely possible — fences bypassed, horses impeded, or the pace fragmenting into multiple bunches. Runners with proven jumping reliability and adaptability, such as Fr Gilligansvoyge and Our Zebo, benefit most when the map is thrown into disorder.
Fr GilligansvoygeOur ZeboShantou ShowCorkbeg
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Dunany Point — if he builds an unchallenged lead of more than four lengths down the back, the race may already be over for the hold-up brigade before the final circuit even begins.
WATCH
Shantou Show — highest OR (95) in the race and suited by trip and going, but has pulled up twice recently; watch for whether he travels with his usual fluency from an early stage as an indicator of his participation.
WATCH
Our Zebo — 329 days absent is a significant fitness flag in a stamina race over 2m6f on yielding ground; if he travels sweetly in the early stages he represents live each-way interest, but any sign of struggle before halfway and he can be dismissed.
NOTE
Crowding risk at the first fence with 17 runners — Tramore's tight, undulating track and a large field makes the opening stages particularly volatile; hold-up horses pushed forward (Corkbeg, Bob The Builder, Fr Gilligansvoyge) are most exposed to interference in these opening strides.
NOTE
Fr Gilligansvoyge — at 13 years old and with genuine consistent form (14/15 in similar going), watch whether he jumps fluently in the early stages; if he does and gets any kind of run on the final bend, he is capable of finishing closer than his age and race position suggest.
6:15 — Majestic Hotel Maiden Hurdle
2m½f · Good To Soft · MDN · 13 runners
3 vying for the leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Chasing Blues led, as the map showed.
Simple Things won at 2.50 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
6 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 3
World As OneChasing BluesJury Foreman
Prominent · 3
Seven TowersO'Callaghan CanFortis Et Liber
Midfield · 3
Hashtag DoyenChamp YoungSimple Things
Hold Up · 4
The Orphan GirlNothintodowithmeJack SprigginsIsthatrightkatie
World As One, Chasing Blues, and Jury Foreman are all confirmed front-runners, guaranteeing a strong, contested gallop from the outset over 2m½f on yielding ground at Tramore — a track that already tests stamina through its undulating nature. With three horses fighting for the lead, no single pacemaker can dictate comfortably; the pace is likely to be genuine and sustained, burning off one-paced types but creating a test that rewards those who can travel powerfully within the race before asserting. This shape strongly favours prominent-to-midfield runners with genuine stamina and a clean jumping record — horses who can sit just off a hot pace without being pulled wide, then pick off the fading front-runners in the closing stages. Champ Young and Simple Things are true hold-up horses shuffled forward on the map due to field congestion at the rear — Seven Towers, Fortis Et Liber, and O'Callaghan Can are the more natural prominent types who are actually equipped to secure those positions.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Contested Lead Fries Frontmen
46% probability
If World As One, Chasing Blues, and Jury Foreman push hard against each other and the pace is unrelenting from the first hurdle, the front three tie each other up and leave the door open for prominent trackers to swoop.
Seven Towers and O'Callaghan Can have repeatedly placed off honest gallops and Tramore's stamina test suits their profile; the yielding ground ensures the front-runners pay a price for fighting over the pace.
Seven TowersO'Callaghan CanFortis Et LiberWorld As One
B
One Front-Runner Leads Cleanly
28% probability
If one of the three pace horses — most likely World As One under Brian Hayes for Mullins — breaks well and establishes a clear lead before the others settle, dictating at a more controlled but still searching gallop.
World As One has placed at Grade level over 2m4f on soft ground and the Mullins/Hayes combination adds significant class; from a more settled position in front, the horse's stamina becomes a weapon rather than a liability.
World As OneFortis Et LiberSeven TowersO'Callaghan Can
C
Stamina Test Favours Midfielders
17% probability
If the pace collapses in the back straight and riders in mid-division find daylight, horses with genuine stamina reserves travelling wide of the scrimmage can challenge.
Simple Things has placed twice over 2m4f on soft/good-to-soft and, though pushed out of a true hold-up position by field congestion, has the staying profile to capitalise if traffic opens; O'Callaghan Can's course form over 2m4f and 2m2f at Tramore is a live asset here.
Simple ThingsO'Callaghan CanSeven TowersFortis Et Liber
D
Closers Pounce From Rear
9% probability
If the front three genuinely go too hard and the field implodes late, freeing up a true hold-up horse to sprint from off the pace.
Champ Young and Jack Spriggins are the deepest-sitting types but both carry significant concerns — Champ Young is redistributed from a true rear position and Jack Spriggins has not raced in 728 days; a late-run scenario is the least reliable given the hold-up contingent is thinned by redistribution.
World As One, Chasing Blues, and Jury Foreman could have a fierce battle for the lead from the outset — watch whether any of the three breaks cleanly enough to dictate, or whether all three race into each other's pockets and set up the race for those behind.
WATCH
Seven Towers has been placed in four of five hurdle starts and Keith Donoghue is a significant booking — watch his position tracking the pace through the back straight, as any deterioration in the leaders' stride is likely to bring him into contention.
WATCH
Simple Things and Champ Young are genuine hold-up horses mapped forward due to field congestion — watch whether either can actually drop back to their natural position at the start, as failing to do so would see them racing too prominently for their style.
NOTE
Jack Spriggins has been off 728 days — watch his jumping in the early stages; any hesitation or error at the first two hurdles would confirm this is a fitness outing and remove him from calculations entirely.
NOTE
O'Callaghan Can has placed twice at Tramore over this trip — watch whether Alan O'Sullivan settles him in a handy position on the first circuit, as his course form is the strongest track-specific angle in the field and a clean round of jumping could be decisive.
6:50 — John Fairbrother Memorial Mares Handicap Hurdle
2m½f · Good To Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Galileo Springs likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Tingarran Express led; the map had Galileo Springs in front.
Small Bucks won at 9.50 — was held up, as the map had it.
2 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Galileo Springs
Prominent · 3
Sea Of DoubtTingarran ExpressLike An Ocean
Midfield · 3
Rare TimesBravewhenineedtobeCinnabar Moth
Hold Up · 3
Del Boys DivaSmall BucksGolden Wings
Galileo Springs is the sole confirmed front-runner here and, with no genuine rival likely to push her early, she shapes to control proceedings at a measured, sustainable gallop on yielding ground over 2m½f at Tramore. Sea Of Doubt, Tingarran Express, and Like An Ocean are all prominent-style horses who will seek to track closely, meaning a small lead group forms but without any combustion — this is a controlled rather than contested tempo. The redistribution flags are significant: Rare Times and Bravewhenineedtobe are natural prominent types who will be squeezed back from their preferred berths, and Cinnabar Moth — a hold-up mare — is also displaced; none of the three is likely to secure their natural tactical position. A moderate, metronomic pace on yielding ground over this trip at Tramore is a classically unhelpful shape for true hold-up horses, instead favouring horses that can travel prominently and produce a sustained effort from three out rather than a late sprint — the patient-prominent or stalking profile is the one to side with.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Galileo Springs Controls, Stalkers Strike
62% probability
If Galileo Springs sets an uncontested moderate fractions and the race is won from the tracking positions.
Galileo Springs dictates from the front, Sea Of Doubt and Tingarran Express shadow her into the straight, and the winner emerges from that small lead group as stamina counts on the yielding ground; hold-up horses simply cannot generate enough pace late to bridge a large gap off a slow tempo.
Sea Of DoubtTingarran ExpressLike An OceanGalileo Springs
B
Pace Quickens, Prominent Types Tested
18% probability
If the moderate early pace suddenly increases from three out and the stalking group is put to the test sooner than expected.
Sea Of Doubt's consistent form against competitive fields and her strong placed record over similar trips at this level makes her ideally suited if the tempo lifts mid-race, as she has the class and fitness to respond; Tingarran Express, a past winner at this trip on good ground, also handles a test of stamina well.
Sea Of DoubtTingarran ExpressLike An OceanRare Times
C
Lone Leader Outstays Field
12% probability
If Galileo Springs is simply allowed to control the race so completely that no rival can close her down on the run-in.
With a STYLE_FIT of 0.92 discounting her chance under pressure, this scenario demands Galileo Springs reproduce her best (her OR=102 win form is there) and the yielding conditions help neutralise the closing kick of hold-up rivals; this outcome is plausible but depends on nothing going wrong and the stalkers underperforming.
Galileo SpringsSea Of DoubtTingarran ExpressLike An Ocean
D
Hold-Up Horses Pounce Late
8% probability
If the pace collapses dramatically, creating a falsely run race that compresses the field and allows the rear-rankers to swoop.
Del Boys Diva and Golden Wings are the only genuine hold-up runners in their natural position, but both carry finishing fade concerns and their sim-going figures are modest; Bravewhenineedtobe and Cinnabar Moth, though redistributed from their true prominent roles, would need to be ridden entirely against type to play a part here — this is the least likely outcome.
Del Boys DivaGolden WingsBravewhenineedtobeCinnabar Moth
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch whether Sea Of Doubt can track Galileo Springs in the first three from early — if she locks onto the front-runner's girth before the second last, she becomes the most dangerous horse in the race given her prominent style, consistent placed record, and competent claimer booking.
WATCH
Galileo Springs's STYLE_FIT flag (0.92) means she may be challenged off her controlled front-running game if Sea Of Doubt, Tingarran Express, or Like An Ocean crowd her early — any pressure would undermine her dominant scenario probability.
WATCH
Bravewhenineedtobe's 717-day absence is exceptional and must be respected; even if Margaret Mullins has her ready, this mare will not be straightforward tactically and should be treated as a significant unknown regardless of her ability on fresher form.
NOTE
Like An Ocean (4yo, two career runs, 7lb claim) is a wild card — unexposed mares with a single win can outrun their odds in this type of race, and if the yard has prepared her well she could be a big price surprise from the prominent group.
NOTE
The going for this race is reported Yielding by the racecourse despite the official card saying Good To Soft — this is relevant for any runner with a proven preference for cut, and the discrepancy should be factored into reading finishing positions.
7:25 — Walsh Butler Electrical Mares Maiden Hurdle
2m5f · Good To Soft · MDN · 16 runners
Hello Below likeliest to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Hello Below led, as the map showed.
Kenny's Jewel won at 9.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.
7 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Hello Below
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 10
Treacys EllaI'm GoldHunskelperGratitudeforgraceBanphrionsa AlainnQuiet In BresilKenny's JewelRoad To The SeaFervidaLady Aquarelle
Hold Up · 5
ThedreamistilaliveRoom For One MoreQueenofqueenstreetNancy WheelerMila Ballerina
Hello Below is the sole confirmed front-runner in a 16-mare field and looks set to dictate from the front at a sustainable, uncontested gallop over 2m5f on yielding ground at Tramore — a track that already places a premium on jumping fluency and stamina. With no other genuine lead horse to challenge her, she can control tempo and conserve energy through the middle stages, which sets up a race that should be decided by finishing resolution rather than raw pace. The yielding surface and extended trip will test the staying power of hold-up runners, and with the majority of the field being true closers competing for the same ground in the straight, scrimmaging risks are high late on. This shape strongly favours horses racing prominently or just off the pace who can travel smoothly into contention without needing a clear run from deep; pure hold-up profiles face a traffic-heavy, ground-dependent ask. Several runners listed here — including I'm Gold, Hunskelper, Gratitudeforgrace, Kenny's Jewel, Road To The Sea, and Lady Aquarelle — are genuine hold-up types compressed into a midfield mapping because the field is overwhelmingly rear-ward in tendency, and it is Hello Below alone who is most likely to secure her natural position at the head of affairs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Hello Below Controls Unchallenged
52% probability
If Hello Below gets a clean break and sets a measured, uncontested pace from the front on the yielding ground.
Hello Below dictates a controlled tempo with no rival willing or able to press her, conserving energy for the final climb; horses racing in her slipstream — within two to three lengths — will be ideally placed to pounce if she tires.
Hello BelowMila BallerinaTreacys EllaRoom For One More
B
Prominent Pair Fight It Out
24% probability
If one or two runners ignore their hold-up tendencies and chase Hello Below into a stronger gallop, cranking up the pace.
A more truly-run race on the yielding surface stretches the field and produces a stamina test in the final half-mile; horses with proven staying form who have raced handily before will be rewarded as the front pair empty.
Mila BallerinaNancy WheelerQuiet In BresilRoom For One More
C
Closers Pick Up The Pieces
15% probability
If Hello Below's early pace proves deceptively quick on the yielding surface and she fades before the last, opening a gap for closers.
A collapsing leader can pull the field into a sprint-from-midfield scenario, and the horse with the best stride in the conditions and a clear run through a congested chasing pack will benefit.
Quiet In BresilKenny's JewelGratitudeforgraceBanphrionsa Alainn
D
Chaos And Attrition
9% probability
If the large field produces crowding, jumping errors, and a faltering early pace that turns the finish into a lottery.
Multiple runners lose their rhythm through interference over the hurdles or a muddling gallop, and only the best-jumping, most-settled mare gets home cleanly; tactical chaos on a yielding Tramore track can throw up a surprising result.
Treacys EllaRoom For One MoreHunskelperFervida
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Hello Below's ability to maintain fluency over every hurdle is critical — if she makes a significant error at any stage on the yielding surface, her positional advantage evaporates and the entire race dynamic changes.
WATCH
With at least six genuine hold-up mares all trying to find cover in the early stages, crowding on the first bend and approaching the early hurdles is a real risk — watch for traffic incidents that could shuffle the race before the pace even settles.
WATCH
Room For One More's four-day turnaround and the W P Mullins booking for a lightly-raced five-year-old warrants close observation in the parade ring — if she travels strongly it is worth noting as the trainer's 14-day strike rate of 13/40 is elite.
NOTE
Kenny's Jewel with J J Slevin aboard is a combination whose jockey quality exceeds the typical profile for this grade — watch whether Slevin positions her closer than her natural style would suggest, which could signal confidence from connections.
NOTE
The yielding ground, confirmed for this 7:25 slot by the going report, is softer than most of this field have encountered — any mare showing signs of laboured movement or breathing through the middle stages should be noted as a potential early dropout in a field of 16.
Moonlight Paradise won at 13.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield.
3 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Latopix
Prominent · 1
Tullyveery Lad
Midfield · 6
Good WorldBoston BeachHillstar BluesMoonlight ParadiseDiamond SecretRay Gun
Hold Up · 4
Mighty BerkshireRyan's SonJacko StarTolka Row
Latopix is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 12-runner field and, with no genuine rival to press him, Darragh O'Keeffe can dictate a controlled, measured gallop from the front over 2m5f on yielding ground at Tramore. The pace will be honest but not injurious — Latopix has placed twice recently at similar distances on good ground and will settle into a rhythm that suits his own stamina profile. Tullyveery Lad is the most likely prominent tracker given his consistent placement record over staying trips, while Good World, Boston Beach, Hillstar Blues, Diamond Secret, Moonlight Paradise and Ray Gun are all genuine hold-up types who have been mapped to midfield because the field contains far more closers than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — of these, Good World and Tolka Row are the most likely to secure a realistic early position. A controlled front-runner dictating a steady, sustainable pace over a stamina trip on soft-leaning ground is a significant advantage, and this race shape firmly favours hold-up horses with proven finishing power over staying distances who can come from just off the pace — not those forced wide and deep at the back.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Latopix Dictates, Stamina Wins
52% probability
If Latopix bowls along unchallenged and the pace is steady enough that hold-up horses with genuine stamina close powerfully in the final two flights.
Latopix controls the tempo and the race becomes a true test of stamina on yielding ground, favouring horses who travel well off the pace and pick up late over the 2m5f trip; hold-up types with good records at this sort of distance and going will be eating into the leader's advantage from two out.
Mighty BerkshireTolka RowTullyveery LadGood World
B
Front-Runner Holds On
25% probability
If the pace Latopix sets is genuinely slow and the midfield/hold-up horses are caught flat-footed or fail to get a clear run through the crowded closing stages.
Latopix, allowed a soft lead throughout and never seriously challenged, conserves enough energy to repel challengers from the last hurdle home; his recent form of two consecutive placed efforts at similar distances underlines his ability to last home in this style.
LatopixTullyveery LadMighty BerkshireTolka Row
C
Prominent Tracker Pounces
14% probability
If a horse settled just behind Latopix tracks him throughout and produces a decisive jump at the last to collar the leader on the run-in.
Tullyveery Lad, with a solid record of placing at this trip on good ground and fit from a run 12 days ago, is ideally placed to travel in Latopix's slipstream and challenge once the pace lifts from three out; his consistency over staying trips makes him the natural danger from this position.
Tullyveery LadMighty BerkshireTolka RowRyan's Son
D
Closers Overwhelm Field
9% probability
If the pace collapses in the back straight causing a scramble and multiple hold-up horses manage to get into contention simultaneously, creating a messy finish.
With so many true hold-up types redistributed into midfield and racing out of their natural role, a chaotic finish is possible but relies on unlikely positioning for most closers; Tolka Row and Mighty Berkshire — the two most organised hold-up types with genuine good-ground stamina form — would benefit most from the resulting scramble.
Tolka RowMighty BerkshireRyan's SonGood World
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Latopix (front-runner) is uncontested in the lead — watch whether Darragh O'Keeffe deliberately slows the pace from the third-last, which would dramatically reduce the closing window for hold-up horses and make him very hard to peg back.
WATCH
Tullyveery Lad ran just 12 days ago and is asked to quicken from prominent off a busy schedule — watch for any signs of flat-to-the-boards jumping from the back of the last as fatigue sets in.
WATCH
Diamond Secret ran yesterday and any sign of a sluggish jump or lack of early pace should be treated as a serious fitness flag, making it one to oppose sharply regardless of odds.
NOTE
Ryan's Son carries a fade-in-finish flag and has no form beyond 20f — watch whether Eoghan Finegan (5) drops him in early to conserve energy, which would be the only way to give the horse a realistic chance at this trip.
NOTE
The cluster of redistributed hold-up types (Good World, Boston Beach, Hillstar Blues, Moonlight Paradise, Ray Gun) will all be seeking the same ground from the third-last — watch for traffic congestion on the turn for home that could cost any one of them their chance at a critical moment.
8:25 — Clem Jacob Hire Flat Race
2m½f · Good · DEFAULT · 8 runners
Mountain Sky to leadHISTORIC
How it ran
Cloneen To The Max and Mountain Sky led, as the map showed.
Long'way won at 1.80 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.
3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them
Race shape
Lead · 1
Mountain Sky
Prominent · 0
None
Midfield · 5
Moonhall LadLong'wayCall My NameCloneen To The MaxCharles Kickham
Hold Up · 2
Tale Of IntrigueNo Pass Port
Mountain Sky is the sole confirmed front-runner and, with no other genuine pace-setter to challenge, should dictate a controlled, sustainable gallop from the outset over this 2m½f trip on Good ground at Tramore. The field carries more hold-up horses than the rear of the map can accommodate — Cloneen To The Max and Charles Kickham are natural come-from-behind types who will be forced to race in closer order than ideal, diluting their threat. With Mountain Sky able to set his own fractions uncontested, the race is likely to develop into a test of stamina from the home turn rather than a sprint, as the leader controls the tempo throughout. This shape strongly favours prominent racers and the confirmed front-runner himself, as horses forced to wait for a late run will find limited room to pick off a well-judged leader that has never been asked to go faster than comfortable.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Mountain Sky Dictates Unchallenged
63% probability
If Mountain Sky goes to the front immediately and controls a measured, unchallenged gallop throughout.
Mountain Sky sets a comfortable tempo, idles his rivals into submission, and kicks clear from the home turn before stamina tests become critical; his two recent runner-up efforts at this trip suggest he finds his level right here. Prominent horses with the pace to track him closely are best placed, while redistributed hold-up types never get into a winning position arriving too late.
Mountain SkyTale Of IntrigueLong'wayCall My Name
B
Prominent Stalker Pounces
20% probability
If Mountain Sky's lead is tracked closely by a prominent racer who times a challenge perfectly from two out.
Mountain Sky sets the race up but is picked off late by a horse that has sat just behind the pace and travels with more ease into the straight; Tale Of Intrigue's improving form over Good ground and 5/5 going compatibility makes it the obvious candidate to exploit this shape. The winner in this scenario is a patient tracker who delivers at the business end without needing a prolonged sprint.
Tale Of IntrigueLong'wayMountain SkyCall My Name
C
Unknown Talent Strikes
11% probability
If one of the lightly-raced, unknown-style runners — Long'way or Call My Name — proves significantly superior in class or raw ability.
W P Mullins's Long'way carries the most significant stable ammunition in the field with a 13/40 14-day trainer strike rate, and an unraced profile means the market will reveal plenty; superior ability can overcome any tactical disadvantage. Call My Name, trained by Andrew Slattery who has been in excellent form, cannot be entirely dismissed if debut or return form is sharp.
Long'wayCall My NameTale Of IntrigueMountain Sky
D
Closers Pounce Late
6% probability
If the pace collapses mid-race and exhausted front-runners leave the door open for hold-up horses to come through late.
Cloneen To The Max and Charles Kickham are genuine hold-up types forced to race in unnatural midfield positions, severely compromising their ability to deliver a sustained late run; this scenario requires both a faster-than-expected early pace and a genuine stamina collapse, neither of which is set up by the race shape. No Pass Port's single run form of ninth makes this scenario extremely thin without additional evidence.
Cloneen To The MaxCharles KickhamNo Pass PortTale Of Intrigue
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch Mountain Sky in the early stages — if he meets zero pressure and establishes a clear lead by the first turn, the race is likely already being run to his strengths and he becomes very difficult to peg back.
WATCH
Long'way (W P Mullins, 13/40 trainer strike rate) is a significant unknown — monitor its opening price movement closely, as any market support from this yard deserves serious attention in a field where form is otherwise limited.
WATCH
Cloneen To The Max and Charles Kickham are both natural hold-up horses forced forward by the race shape; if either appears to be fighting for position early rather than settling, their chance is likely gone before halfway.
NOTE
The going report shows all earlier races at Tramore ran on Yielding, with only this 8:25 race officially listed as Good — watch whether the ground description translates to a meaningfully faster surface that could stretch the stamina of hold-up types arriving late.
NOTE
Tale Of Intrigue's jockey Mr T A Halford claims 7lbs, which is an unusual combination for a horse showing consistent improvement — check whether the trainer's use of the claimer here signals confidence or caution before assessing the price.|
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.