1:45

Archive›Tramore · 16 August 2026

Tramore

16 August 2026 · 7 races

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1:45 — Tramore Directors Maiden Hurdle
2m½f · Good · MDN · 10 runners
Louiescall to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Louiescall led, as the map showed.

Louiescall won at 5.50 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Louiescall
Prominent · 2
IvattBallybollen
Midfield · 4
Speed For FunBobby KirovaPenzanceCaptain Hanley
Hold Up · 3
SankofaGrabatCairo King
Louiescall is the sole confirmed front-runner and will set a sustainable, uncontested pace from the front, shaping this as a processional gallop rather than a war of attrition. With no rival capable of or likely to pressure them early, Louiescall can dictate fully on their own terms over 2m½f on Good ground at Tramore. The field holds more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Bobby Kirova, Penzance, and Captain Hanley are genuine hold-up horses who will be pushed into midfield roles rather than their natural position, meaning the back of the field will be congested and their finishing kicks may be compromised. Ballybollen and Ivatt are the genuine prominent racers who can track the pace organically, and with the tempo likely to be controlled and moderate, horses who sit close to Louiescall in the first half of the race and travel economically will be best placed — this race shape most favours prominent-to-midfield runners who can sustain their effort off a steady gallop rather than true hold-up closers who need a truly run race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Louiescall Dictates Unchallenged
62% probability
If Louiescall bowls along at a controlled pace and no rival has the speed or intent to press them through the early stages.
Louiescall sets a comfortable tempo, builds a rhythm over the hurdles, and the race becomes a test of who can sustain their effort in the home straight rather than a true stamina grind; horses close to the pace from early have first run and the lead horse themselves becomes genuinely dangerous. Ballybollen and Ivatt, tracking in the first two, are ideally positioned to pounce in the straight without having been dragged into a battle.
BallybollenLouiescallIvattSpeed For Fun
B
Prominent Pair Grind Down Leader
20% probability
If Ballybollen and Ivatt both press Louiescall from the second hurdle, lifting the tempo and turning it into a more genuine test.
A stronger gallop develops from an early stage as Ballybollen and Ivatt refuse to concede ground to Louiescall, creating a true pace that stretches the field and tests stamina fully across the 2m½f trip. This plays into the hands of any horse with genuine staying power and class at the top of the weights — Speed For Fun and Ballybollen's De Bromhead-class preparation becomes relevant.
Speed For FunBallybollenIvattPenzance
C
Hold-Up Horses Overrun Field
11% probability
If the moderate pace implodes in the home straight and the congested midfield-to-rear group swamps a tiring Louiescall.
With Penzance, Bobby Kirova, and Captain Hanley all crowded into midfield rather than their natural positions, a bunched finish is possible if the pace is truly dawdling and everyone lands in the straight together; however, their redistribution out of true hold-up roles means this scenario is structurally fragile. Penzance, with four placed efforts on Good ground, is best equipped of the hold-up types to deliver late if some daylight opens.
PenzanceSpeed For FunBobby KirovaCaptain Hanley
D
Rank Outsider Springs Surprise
7% probability
If the favourite-market horses fail to stay or jump poorly and a lightly-weighted or unexposed runner capitalises on the chaos.
A maiden hurdle field at this level always contains unknowns — Grabat, Sankofa, and Cairo King are unproven enough over hurdles that a freak result cannot be entirely dismissed, particularly if jumping errors reshuffle the field at a crucial stage. Cairo King's long absence (829 days) is the biggest wild card and carries the most chaotic potential if freshness translates to speed early.
Cairo KingGrabatSankofaBobby Kirova

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHLouiescallIvattBallybollenSpeed For FunhBobby KirovatPenzancetpCaptain HanleyhtSankofaGrabatCairo Kingt2. Louiescall3. Ivatt1. Ballybollen4. Speed For Fun5. Bobby Kirova6. Penzance7. Captain Hanley8. Sankofa9. Grabat10. Cairo King
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Louiescall's early jumping under Daniel King will define the race tempo — any fumble at the first two hurdles risks disrupting the controlled lead they need to exploit their front-running advantage.
WATCH
Bobby Kirova, Penzance, and Captain Hanley are all crowded into the same midfield band; watch for traffic problems and interference between them as they compete for the same ground turning into the straight.
WATCH
Cairo King has not raced in 829 days and is flagged as a finisher who fades — if fitness is short, an early departure or dramatic stopping in the home straight could cause interference for horses directly behind.
NOTE
Speed For Fun's jumping fluency will be the key to Brian Hayes executing a prominent or handy position — on hurdle debut (or near-debut) any hesitation at the obstacles could drop them out of the race shape where their class is most dangerous.
NOTE
Trainer David Harry Kelly is 0/11 in the last 14 days — with two runners (Louiescall, Sankofa) in this race, monitor any market move as a signal of which, if either, the yard believes is live.
2:20 — Frank Gillane Memorial Handicap Hurdle
2m½f · Good · HCAP · 16 runners
Doctor Confusion likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ina Mina and Doctor Confusion and Pahlavi led, as the map showed.

Ina Mina won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 14 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Doctor Confusion
Prominent · 2
Owl's DelightDepeche Mo
Midfield · 8
Truckers CruisingGlendowerLanzhouVairueCinnabar MothSurviving MurmanskMaxios LadyDoyen Og
Hold Up · 5
Annie's AngelLiberated LightPahlaviIna MinaColesberg
Doctor Confusion is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 16-runner field and, crucially, faces no meaningful pressure for the lead — Owl's Delight and Depeche Mo are the only other prominent-style runners, and neither has the profile to seriously contest early supremacy. With Doctor Confusion able to dictate from the front at a controlled, sustainable gallop on Good ground over 2m½f at Tramore, the pace is unlikely to be genuinely searching, which historically compresses the finishing sprint and rewards horses that can track closer to the pace rather than those forced wide or deep off the back. The field holds considerably more hold-up types than the race shape can accommodate at the rear — Truckers Cruising, Glendower, Lanzhou, Vairue, Cinnabar Moth, Surviving Murmansk, Doyen Og and Maxios Lady are all genuine hold-up horses redistributed into midfield positions they are unlikely to naturally occupy, while Liberated Light, Annie's Angel, Ina Mina and Pahlavi form a genuine hold-up cluster that will need traffic gaps to open late. This race shape — a lone, uncontested leader setting a moderate tempo — strongly favours horses that can sit prominently or in close midfield behind Doctor Confusion and produce a sustained run from the second-last, rather than deep closers who will find the pace insufficient to pull them through a packed field.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Doctor Confusion Dictates Unchallenged
52% probability
If Doctor Confusion leads from the front without pressure and the field settles into a moderate, processional tempo that suits prominent trackers.
Doctor Confusion controls every yard at a gallop that suits his stamina, with Owl's Delight and Depeche Mo unable to challenge, leaving the race to be won by those closest to the leader turning in — prominent-style horses get first run on the hold-up pack.
Ina MinaLiberated LightPahlaviOwl's Delight
B
Late Closers Get Through
22% probability
If the pace is genuinely steady enough that a trio of well-placed hold-up types find clear ground turning for home and pick off the fading leaders.
A slow early tempo compacts the field but the final-flight dash becomes a lottery of gaps — horses with recent winning form on Good ground and sharp finishes benefit if daylight appears.
Liberated LightSurviving MurmanskIna MinaPahlavi
C
Pace Collapse, Fresh Legs Win
16% probability
If Doctor Confusion sets an unsustainable early fraction and stops quickly, gifting the race to a prominent chaser who picks up the pieces.
A runner tracking Doctor Confusion in second or third absorbs the early pace and surges clear when the leader capitulates — Good ground and the Tramore track's testing final bend punish front-runners who have gone too hard.
Ina MinaOwl's DelightDepeche MoPahlavi
D
Chaos — Traffic Blocks Closers
10% probability
If the congested hold-up group becomes bunched on the approach to the second-last and multiple late challengers are denied a clear run.
With so many genuine hold-up types forced into midfield positions, interference and checks become likely when gaps close — only the horse that finds daylight earliest benefits, and the winner emerges late from an unlikely position.
GlendowerCinnabar MothTruckers CruisingVairue

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHDoctor ConfusiontOwl's DelightDepeche MoTruckers Cruisi…tGlendowertLanzhouVairueCinnabar MothSurviving Murma…Maxios LadyDoyen OgtbAnnie's AngeltpLiberated LighttPahlavitpIna MinahColesberg5. Doctor Confusion4. Owl's Delight6. Depeche Mo7. Truckers Cruising8. Glendower9. Lanzhou10. Vairue11. Cinnabar Moth12. Surviving Murmansk13. Maxios Lady14. Doyen Og15. Annie's Angel2. Liberated Light3. Pahlavi1. Ina Mina16. Colesberg
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Doctor Confusion's gallop sets the entire tempo — if Darragh O'Keeffe elects to go overly conservative, the race becomes a sprint from the last and the hold-up pack floods through; watch his position jumping the third-last for early signs of tiring.
WATCH
Lanzhou (3-day turnaround) and Cinnabar Moth (2-day turnaround) are extreme fitness risks — monitor early market moves and watch for signs of sluggishness in the parade ring, as either could become a hazard in the congested midfield.
WATCH
With eight or more hold-up types competing for the same late ground, a serious traffic incident is probable in the straight — horses drawn or positioned on the inner turning for home face the greatest risk of being blocked.
NOTE
Liberated Light won this course and trip 9 days ago and the Kiely T14 record (0/4) is the only negative — watch whether the market shortens it into market-leader territory, as a repeat of that form would be very difficult to beat at this level.
NOTE
Surviving Murmansk (2nd on going-equivalent form 17d ago) and Ina Mina (winner 13d ago) are the two hold-up types with most recent winning evidence on this Going — if either secures a prominent pitch rather than sitting deep, the race shape upgrades their chance materially.
2:55 — Frank King Memorial Maiden Hurdle
2m5½f · Good · MDN · 11 runners
Lead contested: Lady Lena v Ajp FalcoHISTORIC

How it ran

Something Fabulous led; the map had Lady Lena and Ajp Falco in front.

Lady Lena won at 1.83 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Lady LenaAjp Falco
Prominent · 2
Something FabulousMarket Ready
Midfield · 4
ThelittleredfoxFlowing FastBury Your PastSouth Of Killerig
Hold Up · 3
EyecanboogieGoodmanconL'As de Watt
Lady Lena (Mullins/Hayes) and Ajp Falco (Kelly/Flanagan) are both confirmed front-runners, meaning the early gallop at Tramore's 2m5½f over hurdles will be genuinely contested rather than dawdling — an honest, pressured tempo is the base expectation from the off. With both leaders committed to setting the pace, the race will be run at a sustained gallop that tests stamina through the final circuit, likely stretching the field and exposing any lack of jumping fluency or finishing reserves. Something Fabulous and Market Ready will push to hold prominent positions just off the pair, adding further pressure to the mid-race fractions and reducing the chance of a false dawdle. This race shape strongly favours horses with proven stamina, reliable jumping, and the ability to travel prominently — hold-up horses will need everything to go right from the back, and the field contains more front-running/prominent types than can all secure their preferred berths, with Lady Lena (class) and Ajp Falco (confirmed pace commitment) best placed to dictate, leaving South Of Killerig — a genuine hold-up type redistributed to midfield — unlikely to get its natural pitch and carrying a meaningful style discount.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Contested Pace, Prominent Wins
57% probability
If Lady Lena and Ajp Falco set a genuine gallop and the race is run at honest fractions throughout, suiting horses who travel prominently into the straight.
The sustained tempo will expose those who lack stamina or jumping accuracy, and the winner will be one who travels within the first three or four from an early stage and picks up from the second-last.
Something FabulousLady LenaMarket ReadyGoodmancon
B
Front-Runner Gets First Run
22% probability
If one of the two pace-setters — most likely Lady Lena — asserts from the front and builds an unassailable lead before the final hurdle.
Ajp Falco's noted tendency to fade late means Lady Lena could capitalise if she leads unchallenged after the last bend, while Ajp Falco drops away; a Mullins/Hayes combination at the head of affairs in a maiden hurdle is not to be dismissed.
Lady LenaSomething FabulousMarket ReadyEyecanboogie
C
Closers Deliver Late
13% probability
If the early pace proves truly suicidal — both front-runners burning each other out — and the race collapses in the final quarter-mile.
Goodmancon and Eyecanboogie have shown ability to finish from off the pace and could pick up the pieces, though this scenario is tempered by South Of Killerig's redistribution out of its natural hold-up role.
GoodmanconEyecanboogieL'As de WattSouth Of Killerig
D
Chaotic/Incident Produces Surprise
8% probability
If the pace proves uneven due to jumping errors or fallers among the pace-setters, scrambling the anticipated race shape.
Lightly-raced unexposed types from the O'Loughlin yard — Bury Your Past or Flowing Fast — could benefit from fortune in a muddled affair, though both carry fade warnings and minimal form evidence.
Bury Your PastFlowing FastThelittleredfoxMarket Ready

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHLady LenaAjp FalcotSomething Fabul…Market ReadyThelittleredfoxFlowing FastBury Your PastSouth Of Killer…pEyecanboogieGoodmanconL'As de Wattt2. Lady Lena5. Ajp Falco1. Something Fabulous3. Market Ready6. Thelittleredfox7. Flowing Fast8. Bury Your Past9. South Of Killerig10. Eyecanboogie4. Goodmancon11. L'As de Watt
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Lady Lena (Mullins/Hayes) returns from 294 days off as the highest-profile runner — watch whether she takes up her natural front-running position cleanly at the start, as any sluggish break could allow Ajp Falco to dictate unchallenged.
WATCH
Ajp Falco has a clear fade-in-finish flag and is up against a higher-class front-runner in Lady Lena — watch how quickly it capitulates once challenged from the second-last, as it could impede runners coming from behind.
WATCH
South Of Killerig is a genuine hold-up horse redistributed into midfield due to field congestion at the rear — watch whether Harry Sexton (7lb claimer) can manage the position intelligently, as racing out of role for a 6-year-old with a tongue-tie after 84 days is a compounding risk.
NOTE
The O'Loughlin pair (Bury Your Past, Flowing Fast) both carry fade warnings and have minimal form — if either shows unexpected early pace or jumping fluency, it could briefly distort the mid-race picture before the stronger stayers assert.
NOTE
Goodmancon runs for the second time in 12 days, which is worth monitoring in the latter stages — if the quick turnaround has left any residual fatigue, its hold-up finishing run may be blunted over this extended 2m5½f trip.
3:30 — Victoria House Tramore Mares Beginners Steeplechase
2m6f · Good · DEFAULT · 9 runners
Lead contested: Future Prospect v La Note VerteHISTORIC

How it ran

La Note Verte led, as the map showed.

La Note Verte won at 2.62 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2
Future ProspectLa Note Verte
Prominent · 3
Straight HomeCarry On HeidiCostanuci
Midfield · 1
Liss Eile
Hold Up · 3
Miss FourieKaylasjetEllens Pride
Future Prospect and La Note Verte are both confirmed front-runners for Willie Mullins, meaning Danny Mullins and J J Slevin will be competing for the early lead from flag-fall, creating a genuinely contested gallop over 2m6f on good ground at Tramore. That rivalry at the head of affairs should produce an honest, unrelenting pace that sustains pressure throughout the final circuit and makes it hard for the lead to be gifted to either horse. Carry On Heidi, Costanuci, and Straight Home will be hunting a prominent position behind the two pace-setters, compressing the midfield and further raising the energy cost for any horse near the front. This race shape — two genuine front-runners pushing each other — classically favours a well-positioned prominent-to-midfield racer who can track just off the friction, absorb the test, and produce a late measured effort rather than a burst; horses with stamina, class, and the ability to cruise into contention without expending energy fighting for position will be best served. The field holds more front-running and prominent types than the map can cleanly accommodate at the head of affairs; Future Prospect and La Note Verte are best-placed to secure their natural lead roles, with Carry On Heidi and Straight Home the most likely to actually hold the prominent slots behind them given experience and trainer firepower.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Contested Pace, Stayers Prevail
57% probability
If Future Prospect and La Note Verte fight for the lead and maintain a strong gallop throughout, draining the field and leaving the race to the most durable stayer.
The two Mullins lead horses push each other through honest fractions, stretching the field and burning out rivals who try to stay close; the winner emerges from just off the pace in the final half-mile as rivals capitulate. Straight Home and Carry On Heidi, both proven at trips up to 3m on good ground and capable of sitting handy without over-racing, are ideally positioned to benefit from this shape.
Straight HomeCarry On HeidiFuture ProspectLa Note Verte
B
One Pacer Controls, Kicks Clear
22% probability
If La Note Verte or Future Prospect establishes an uncontested or lightly-pressed lead and dictates terms throughout.
One front-runner gets a comfortable rhythm and settles into a controlled gallop, denying rivals the predictable friction that drains the leader; with Danny Mullins or Slevin able to manage their horse's energy, the leader arrives at the last with reserves intact. Future Prospect's course form and Mullins booking give it an edge in this shape, while La Note Verte's strong Good-ground record (3W in 8 runs) makes her equally capable of exploiting a softer pace.
Future ProspectLa Note VerteCarry On HeidiStraight Home
C
Hold-Up Horse Emerges Late
13% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong enough to completely blow up the front-runners, leaving a gap for a late-running type to come through.
A fierce battle between Future Prospect and La Note Verte collapses both before the run-in, and a horse who has been held off the pace emerges through the carnage. Miss Fourie has winning form at this class on Good ground and, despite a very long lay-off of 323 days, Elliott's yard has firepower; Ellens Pride could theoretically close from the back, though her recent form is uninspiring.
Miss FourieEllens PrideKaylasjetCostanuci
D
Attrition Race, Survivors Win
8% probability
If jumping errors, fallers, or a relentlessly high pace causes mass attrition and the race is won by the last standing.
In a mares' beginners' steeplechase over 2m6f, inexperience over fences can prove decisive at any point in the contest; a chaotic race where multiple runners exit early would open the door for whatever horses are still standing late. Straight Home's proven jumping record and Carry On Heidi's safe jumping style give them the best chance of benefiting from a survival contest.
Straight HomeCarry On HeidiCostanuciKaylasjet

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHFuture ProspecthLa Note VerteStraight HometCarry On HeidiCostanuciLiss EilepMiss FouriepKaylasjettEllens Pridep3. Future Prospect4. La Note Verte1. Straight Home2. Carry On Heidi5. Costanuci6. Liss Eile7. Miss Fourie8. Kaylasjet9. Ellens Pride
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Future Prospect and La Note Verte are both Mullins lead horses — watch for a tactical decision in the paddock or early at the start as to which one is allowed to go forward; if one is deliberately restrained it changes the entire pace dynamic.
WATCH
Straight Home has not run for 426 days — watch for any signs of rustiness in the preliminaries or early jumping, as a horse this fresh may take time to find a rhythm, but if it travels sweetly it is a serious stayer's chance.
WATCH
Miss Fourie is 323 days off the track for Gordon Elliott — despite the trainer's firepower, watch her market move carefully; if she drifts in the ring her comeback readiness is genuinely in doubt over 2m6f of jumping.
NOTE
Ellens Pride wears a hood and has shown a pattern of finishing in the rear half on Good ground — watch whether she is ridden any closer than usual, as any significant change of tactics could indicate a different approach, though her form figures give little cause for optimism.
NOTE
Liss Eile (OR 77) is considerably below the class of the main pace-setters — watch whether the pace being set by Future Prospect and La Note Verte simply leaves her too far back to matter, confirming the redistribution assessment that she cannot find her natural position in this shape.
4:05 — McCarthy's Irish Bar Lexington Handicap Steeplechase
2m6f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Marv Michael likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Pourquoi Poi led; the map had Marv Michael in front.

A Snow White Park won at 5.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Marv Michael
Prominent · 3
Intense ApproachNastyaTullyveery Lad
Midfield · 3
Pourquoi PoiA Snow White ParkThat's About Right
Hold Up · 3
Watch The WeatherOrkneys JackGeneral Clermont
Marv Michael is the sole confirmed front-runner and, critically, is the only horse likely to lead without serious competition — with Nastya, Intense Approach, and Tullyveery Lad all prominent types, the early sections will see some positioning battle, but Marv Michael should be allowed to control fractions at a sustainable gallop over 2m6f on good turf at Tramore. That controlled pace benefits horses who can travel efficiently close to the leader rather than those forced to make up ground from deep, placing a premium on prominent-to-midfield runners who stay on rather than those who need a breakneck gallop to generate a winning move. The field holds more hold-up types than can occupy that position, with Pourquoi Poi, A Snow White Park, and That's About Right all genuine closers or prominent horses compressed into midfield, meaning their preferred race shape is unlikely to materialise organically. In a single-paced, well-regulated contest over this stamina-sapping trip, the race shape strongly favours prominent horses with proven good-ground form who can hold a handy berth throughout and grind out a staying effort to the line.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Marv Michael Controls, Stays Win
62% probability
If Marv Michael dictates an uncontested, honest gallop and the prominent chasers simply cannot lift late.
Marv Michael sets a controlled pace that suits a thorough stamina test, and the horses tracking in second and third have the clearest passage with the least traffic to navigate; a staying, prominent profile dominates the finish.
NastyaIntense ApproachTullyveery LadWatch The Weather
B
Prominent Pair Fight It Out
18% probability
If Nastya and Intense Approach press Marv Michael into a stronger gallop than ideal, forcing a genuine test of class and stamina.
Elevated fractions see Marv Michael weakened after the last and the two prominent types who tracked him prove best placed to pounce, with the race resolved between the highest-rated closers from a handy berth.
NastyaIntense ApproachWatch The WeatherTullyveery Lad
C
Hold-Up Horse Swoops Late
13% probability
If the early pace is genuinely strong enough to open the race up for Watch The Weather or Orkneys Jack to deliver from behind.
A sustained gallop stretches the field and creates a clear run for a hold-up horse with proven good-ground form, though this requires the pace dynamic to be more honest than one sole front-runner typically generates; Watch The Weather's course experience gives it the best late claim.
Watch The WeatherOrkneys JackGeneral ClermontA Snow White Park
D
Market Mover Causes Upset
7% probability
If a redistributed runner such as A Snow White Park or Pourquoi Poi secures a better pitch than expected and travels supremely to challenge.
Danny Mullins could manoeuvre A Snow White Park into a more forward position than her usual style dictates, and if the race pans out slowly enough in the early stages she could slot in ahead of the hold-up pack; however, both horses carry STYLE_FIT discounts and the scenario requires multiple things to go right.
A Snow White ParkPourquoi PoiThat's About RightGeneral Clermont

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHMarv MichaeltbIntense ApproachbNastyatTullyveery LadbPourquoi PoiA Snow White Pa…That's About Ri…tpWatch The Weath…tOrkneys JackGeneral Clermont5. Marv Michael2. Intense Approach1. Nastya3. Tullyveery Lad6. Pourquoi Poi7. A Snow White Park8. That's About Right4. Watch The Weather9. Orkneys Jack10. General Clermont
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Watch whether Nastya secures a prominent position tracking Marv Michael from the outset — if Darragh O'Keeffe slots her second or third jumping the first, she controls her own destiny in this race shape.
WATCH
Monitor Tullyveery Lad's fitness signals at the start given only a two-day turnaround since last run; any signs of sluggishness or early reluctance would immediately discount his chance.
WATCH
Track how aggressively Danny Mullins positions A Snow White Park in the opening half-mile — if Mullins forces her forward from her redistributed midfield slot, she becomes a live factor; if she settles back, the STYLE_FIT discount fully applies.
NOTE
Marv Michael's jumping should be watched carefully with an inexperienced claimer (Harry Sexton, 7lb) in the saddle on a front-runner over 2m6f — any blunders at pace could unsettle the entire shape and accelerate the race for closers.
NOTE
General Clermont and That's About Right are both veteran hold-up types who need an honest gallop that this race is unlikely to provide — if they are seen labouring before the third-last, the race is firmly in the hands of the prominent group.
4:35 — Heinz Pollmeier Memorial Handicap Steeplechase
1m7½f · Good · HCAP · 10 runners
Itsalonglongroad to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Itsalonglongroad led, as the map showed.

Kingdom Calling won at 8.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1
Itsalonglongroad
Prominent · 1
Polly Poppins
Midfield · 5
KatherineKingdom CallingNobodyBallinaboola GoldRobin Elite
Hold Up · 3
Presenting LadBossing ItRay Gun
Itsalonglongroad is the sole confirmed front-runner in this 10-runner handicap chase over 1m7½f at Tramore, and with no genuine rival to push it for the early lead, it should be allowed to dictate at a tempo of its own choosing on Good ground. Polly Poppins is the only prominent-style horse mapped behind it, meaning the pace picture is unusually clear for a race of this size. The field is heavily loaded with hold-up types — Katherine, Kingdom Calling, Nobody, Ballinaboola Gold, and Robin Elite are all natural rear-division horses redistributed to the midfield on the map simply because they cannot all occupy their preferred position, and several carry STYLE_FIT discounts as a result. A controlled, sustainable gallop set by Itsalonglongroad with no pressure applied will likely compress the field and create a sprint-finish dynamic that rewards the horse best positioned to attack from prominent or mid-pack early — the race shape most strongly favours front-running or close-tracking profiles given the weight of genuine hold-up types who will likely be further back than ideal.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

A
Itsalonglongroad Controls Unchallenged
58% probability
If Itsalonglongroad is allowed to bowl along in front uncontested and sets a fair but manageable gallop throughout.
The 12-year-old has course experience and, facing no pace rival, can conserve energy before kicking clear at the final fence; Good ground suits and its hurdling gate history suggests it handles this track well. Polly Poppins, tracking closely in second, is the likeliest beneficiary if the front-runner ties up, as it has solid Good-ground form at this trip and sits in the ideal position behind a lone leader.
ItsalonglongroadPolly PoppinsBossing ItPresenting Lad
B
Close Tracker Pounces Late
22% probability
If Itsalonglongroad sets only a modest gallop and a horse in the chasing pack produces a clean jumping round to reel it in at the last.
Bossing It or Presenting Lad, both natural hold-up types with decent Good-ground form, could thread through if the pace is slow enough to bring the field together in the straight. Bossing It's second placing over 17f on Good and Presenting Lad's recent placed effort over similar terrain give each a plausible route to the frame in a muddling-pace finish.
Bossing ItPresenting LadPolly PoppinsKatherine
C
Pace Collapse, Field Bunches
13% probability
If Itsalonglongroad is brave early then weakens, causing a concertina effect that brings multiple hold-up horses into contention simultaneously.
Katherine or Kingdom Calling could pick up the pieces if gaps appear entering the home straight, though both carry STYLE_FIT discounts having been pushed further forward than their natural position warrants. The compressed finish may flatter horses with finishing speed over stamina, but the redistribution discount and their modest recent form limit the upside significantly.
KatherineKingdom CallingNobodyBallinaboola Gold
D
Outsider Storms Home Late
7% probability
If the pace is strong enough to string the field out and a lightly-weighted hold-up type produces an error-free round of jumping to close from the back.
Ray Gun, though returning just two days after a run and with limited turf form, carries a featherweight and a 7lb-claiming jockey; Ballinaboola Gold has better form over longer trips and Good ground, and Danny Mullins gives it professional support. This scenario depends on conditions and mistakes elsewhere that seem unlikely given the race's subdued pace expectation.
Ray GunBallinaboola GoldNobodyRobin Elite

Race position map

STARTMID-RACE3 OUTFINISHItsalonglongroadpPolly PoppinsKatherinehKingdom CallingtNobodyhBallinaboola Go…pRobin ElitetpPresenting LadtBossing ItRay Gunt1. Itsalonglongroad2. Polly Poppins5. Katherine6. Kingdom Calling7. Nobody8. Ballinaboola Gold9. Robin Elite4. Presenting Lad3. Bossing It10. Ray Gun
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY
Itsalonglongroad's jumping accuracy is crucial — if it makes a significant error at any of the early fences it will surrender the race-shaping initiative it depends upon to dictate terms.
WATCH
Polly Poppins is the horse best placed to capitalise if Itsalonglongroad weakens; watch whether Tiernan Power Roche allows it to track the leader closely or gets pushed back in the early stages by the hold-up cluster.
WATCH
Ballinaboola Gold's trip shortening from 20-24f to 1m7½f is untested in recent form — if Danny Mullins is seen pulling for position or the horse fails to settle, it is likely running outside its optimal conditions.
NOTE
Ray Gun running just two days after its last start is the most notable freshness flag in the field — monitor market moves as any late confidence would be significant given the booking of a 7lb claimer.
NOTE
The redistribution of five hold-up horses into midfield means the early mid-pack could be unusually congested; any scrimmaging or jumping errors in the first half-mile will disproportionately affect Katherine, Kingdom Calling, Nobody, Ballinaboola Gold, and Robin Elite.
5:05 — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race
2m½f · Good · DEFAULT · 12 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 16 August 2026.

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Tramore pace map, 16 August 2026 — PaceMap