1:30 — QuinnBet Daily Free Bet Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
2m · Soft · HCAP · 8 runners
Garavogue likeliest to leadFREEHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Garavogue
Prominent · 1
Babychino
Midfield · 4
All One WordFond FarewellSaccarySon Of Tyran
Hold Up · 2
Legendary DayLaplander
Garavogue and Babychino will likely contest the early lead, with Garavogue's prominent style suggesting he'll track any pace rather than force it. The large contingent of hold-up horses (Legendary Day, Laplander, Fond Farewell, All One Word, Saccary, Son Of Tyran) creates a bunched field that will rely on the pace-setters to provide a target, setting up a tactical finish where positioning will be crucial.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Sustainable Pace Suits Leaders
35% probability
If Garavogue and Babychino settle into a manageable rhythm without early pressure
The front pair get an easy lead and kick clear turning for home before the hold-up brigade can get organized. Garavogue's higher rating and prominent style prove decisive in a steadily-run race.
GaravogueBabychinoLegendary DayLaplander
B
Hold-Up Horse Charge
30% probability
If the early pace is genuine enough to stretch the field but not collapse the leaders
The pace sets up perfectly for the closers as Garavogue and Babychino weaken in the final furlong. Legendary Day and Laplander benefit from their patient tactics and superior finishing kicks.
Legendary DayLaplanderFond FarewellAll One Word
C
Tactical Crawl Finish
25% probability
If both pace-setters go too slow and create a sprint finish from the last hurdle
The race becomes a tactical affair with the entire field still in contention at the final flight. All One Word and Fond Farewell benefit from being fresher than the usual pace-setters in a bunched finish.
All One WordFond FarewellGaravogueLegendary Day
D
Pace Collapses Early
10% probability
If Garavogue and Babychino go off too fast and both fade badly
The early leaders burn out before the turn for home, leaving the race to the patient hold-up horses. Saccary gets a perfect setup from his closing style while Son Of Tyran finds one last effort before his usual late fade.
SaccaryLaplanderLegendary DayAll One Word
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Son Of Tyran has faded in his last four starts and may struggle to sustain any challenge if in contention
WATCH
Babychino has never placed on similar going despite prominent style that should suit soft conditions
NOTE
Garavogue gets tactical advantage as only confirmed pace-setter but hasn't won in recent soft ground efforts
WATCH
All One Word has limited hurdles experience and unproven stamina at this trip despite good going record
NOTE
Fond Farewell is the only horse with a recent win on similar going conditions in this field
2:00 — Halso High-Speed Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
2m7½f · Soft · CLS4 · 7 runners
Solid Performer to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Solid Performer
Prominent · 2
InishcorkerLimerick Star
Midfield · 2
Arcadian StarWestern George
Hold Up · 2
Crackling FireTherhythmofthenite
Solid Performer will dictate from the front with minimal early pressure, as Inishcorker and Limerick Star are the only other forward-running horses but both prefer prominent rather than leading positions. This creates a moderate, sustainable gallop that will suit the quartet of hold-up horses (Arcadian Star, Crackling Fire, Western George, Therhythmofthenite) who can all travel comfortably before unleashing finishing kicks over the final 3-4 furlongs.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Uncontested Front Running
35% probability
If Solid Performer gets an easy lead and dictates fractions
The confirmed leader controls the tempo completely and has enough left to resist late challenges. Inishcorker and Limerick Star provide the main threats but lack the tactical advantage.
Solid PerformerInishcorkerLimerick StarArcadian Star
B
Strong Pace Collapse
25% probability
If Inishcorker and Limerick Star press Solid Performer early creating unsustainable fractions
The front three go too fast and tire badly in the closing stages on testing ground. Hold-up horses with proven stamina reserves sweep past the weakening leaders.
Arcadian StarCrackling FireTherhythmoftheniteWestern George
C
Perfect Timing Finish
30% probability
If the pace stays moderate and hold-up horses get clear runs in the straight
The race sets up ideally for closers with good turn of foot. Crackling Fire and Arcadian Star time their challenges perfectly while front runners still have enough left to fight back.
If no horse wants the lead early creating stop-start fractions
The race becomes a sprint from 4f out when the pace finally lifts. Raw ability trumps tactics with the highest-rated horses coming to the fore regardless of running style.
InishcorkerLimerick StarSolid PerformerCrackling Fire
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Solid Performer must be tracked closely early - if given 3+ length lead approaching first hurdle, becomes very hard to peg back
WATCH
Inishcorker has shown temperament issues when pressured for lead - any keen early behavior compromises finishing kick
NOTE
Track where hold-up horses get their runs turning for home - tight finishes here often decided by clearest passage
WATCH
Western George's poor soft ground record (0 from 2) makes him vulnerable if ground rides as testing as appears
NOTE
Watch Limerick Star's jumping rhythm - all previous runs on heavy going may make hurdles come up quicker than expected
2:35 — Doocey Group Mares' Handicap Hurdle
2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners
Looking As You Are likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Looking As You Are
Prominent · 1
No No Fizz
Midfield · 3
NotnowlindaRialannahBlue Marvel
Hold Up · 2
CrazierthandaisyMermaids Cave
Looking As You Are and No No Fizz are the only horses with prominent tendencies, likely to share early duties in what should be a steady tempo. With five hold-up horses behind them, the pace will be sustainable early before intensifying from the home turn as the hold-up brigade look to unleash finishing kicks.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Steady Pace Suits Leaders
35% probability
If Looking As You Are and No No Fizz establish uncontested control through halfway.
The lack of early pace pressure allows them to dictate fractions and have enough left to resist late challenges. Looking As You Are's consistent soft ground form and No No Fizz's recent Uttoxeter win make them hard to peg back.
Looking As You AreNo No FizzCrazierthandaisyMermaids Cave
B
Late Kick Decides
40% probability
If the early pace is moderate and the field bunches turning for home.
The hold-up horses get their ideal scenario with plenty of room to maneuver and the leaders vulnerable to sustained challenges. Crazierthandaisy and Mermaids Cave have the class edge with strong finishing kicks.
If Looking As You Are and No No Fizz go too slow early then suddenly quicken.
The field gets strung out with positioning crucial, favoring horses that can adapt tactically rather than pure hold-up types. Blue Marvel's tactical speed and Notnowlinda's versatility could exploit the confusion.
Blue MarvelNotnowlindaLooking As You AreRialannah
D
Stamina Test Emerges
10% probability
If the soft ground and distance combination creates a true staying test.
The race becomes about who can grind it out longest rather than finishing kick, suiting horses with proven stamina reserves. Rialannah's multiple 24f runs and Blue Marvel's heavy ground third give them the endurance edge.
RialannahBlue MarvelCrazierthandaisyLooking As You Are
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Looking As You Are getting uncontested lead could prove decisive given her soft ground consistency
WATCH
Crazierthandaisy needs the pace to be strong enough early to set up her finishing kick
NOTE
Blue Marvel's jumping - any mistakes will compromise her chances from hold-up position
WATCH
Mermaids Cave requires clear run in straight after impressive Uttoxeter victory last time
NOTE
Race tempo through first mile will determine whether stamina or speed prevails in finish
3:08 — Support The UK Sepsis Trust Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
2m4f · Soft · HCAP · 7 runners
Lead contested: Caughtinyourtrance v Admiral StewartHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 2
CaughtinyourtranceAdmiral Stewart
Prominent · 3
Daytime DreamingAs Legends Have ItShengai Enki
Midfield · 0
None
Hold Up · 2
Walk On HighBowenspark
Caughtinyourtrance and Admiral Stewart will both want to lead, creating an early contest that should establish a solid gallop from the start. With Daytime Dreaming and As Legends Have It also keen to race prominently, the pace is likely to be honest throughout, potentially setting up the race for the hold-up horses Walk On High and Bowenspark to finish strongly up the straight.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Strong Pace Collapse
35% probability
If Caughtinyourtrance and Admiral Stewart go too hard early in testing conditions
The leaders weaken significantly from the second-last, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past. Walk On High and Bowenspark benefit most from their restrained tactics in the soft ground.
Walk On HighBowensparkDaytime DreamingShengai Enki
B
Tactical Battle Develops
25% probability
If the two leaders compromise each other but maintain a workable pace
Daytime Dreaming and As Legends Have It can track the pace without over-racing, positioning perfectly to strike. The prominent runners get first run on the weakening leaders while the hold-up horses have too much to do.
Daytime DreamingAs Legends Have ItAdmiral StewartCaughtinyourtrance
C
One Leader Dominates
25% probability
If Admiral Stewart or Caughtinyourtrance gets an uncontested lead and controls the tempo
The free-running leader can dictate fractions and kick clear when the pressure comes, holding off late challenges. Their stamina over this extended trip proves decisive in the testing conditions.
Admiral StewartCaughtinyourtranceWalk On HighDaytime Dreaming
D
Sustained Gallop Suits
15% probability
If the pace is genuinely strong throughout without early collapse
The horses with proven stamina at this trip thrive, with form over similar distances becoming crucial. Caughtinyourtrance's consistent 24f form and Walk On High's staying power come to the fore.
CaughtinyourtranceWalk On HighBowensparkAdmiral Stewart
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
If Admiral Stewart and Caughtinyourtrance engage in a prolonged early battle, both could compromise their chances significantly.
WATCH
Walk On High needs the pace to be strong enough to set up his finishing kick from the back.
WATCH
Daytime Dreaming's jumping under pressure will be crucial given the competitive nature of this field.
NOTE
Bowenspark's ability to get competitive early position from his hold-up style may determine his chance.
NOTE
The ground conditions may favor the most recent soft ground winners over those returning from good ground.
3:45 — Tom Rowley Simply The Best Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
3m · Soft · HCAP · 10 runners
Taita Hills likeliest to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Taita Hills
Prominent · 3
The Newest OneInflexibleThe Long Point
Midfield · 3
Jo LescribaaJasmin De CotteBali Body
Hold Up · 3
Masters LegacyLargy ForceBank On Frank
Taita Hills is the only confirmed front runner and will lead uncontested, creating a sustainable gallop that suits prominent racers. With six hold-up horses in the field, the pace will be measured early before quickening from three out as the closers attempt their challenges. This setup favors those who can track the leader and kick clear before the hold-up brigade arrives.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Taita Hills Wires Them
35% probability
If Taita Hills gets an uncontested lead and maintains stamina over 3m
The leader sets sensible fractions and has enough left to repel late challengers. The Long Point and Jo Lescribaa track closest but cannot match the winner's sustained effort.
Taita HillsThe Long PointJo LescribaaThe Newest One
B
Prominent Tracker Strikes
30% probability
If The Long Point or The Newest One pressures Taita Hills from the home turn
The pace quickens substantially from three out as prominent runners engage in a battle. One of the trackers outlasts Taita Hills while the hold-up horses arrive too late.
The Long PointThe Newest OneTaita HillsJo Lescribaa
C
Hold-Up Horse Charges
25% probability
If the early pace is slower than expected and hold-up horses get ideal positioning
Largy Force or Bank On Frank times their run perfectly as the early leaders weaken. The soft going aids their stamina and they finish strongest up the hill.
Largy ForceBank On FrankBali BodyMasters Legacy
D
Pace Collapses Early
10% probability
If Taita Hills goes too fast early or gets pressured by multiple prominent runners
The leaders tie up badly in the soft conditions from two out. Jasmin De Cotte or Bali Body emerges from the pack as fresher finishers capitalize on the pace scenario.
Jasmin De CotteBali BodyMasters LegacyInflexible
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if multiple prominent runners pressure Taita Hills early as this could set up pace collapse
WATCH
Monitor The Long Point's jumping under pressure as any mistake will end winning sequence
NOTE
Check how quickly Largy Force and Bank On Frank can get into contention from hold-up positions
NOTE
Observe if Jasmin De Cotte gets the strong pace needed to unleash finishing kick
WATCH
Watch for any faltering from Taita Hills approaching final circuit as stamina question remains
4:20 — Adam Johnson Money Maker Handicap Hurdle
2m7½f · Soft · HCAP · 11 runners
Goodwin to leadHISTORIC
Race shape
Lead · 1
Goodwin
Prominent · 4
Magical KingChampagne TwistOh My JohnnyKing Jon Oliver
Midfield · 3
Idefix De CierguesIndividualisteGetaway Theatre
Hold Up · 3
Libre De ChoeurGoshhowposhSunray Shadow
Goodwin stands alone as the confirmed front runner and should get an uncontested lead in this 11-runner handicap hurdle. With most rivals adopting prominent or hold-up styles, Goodwin can dictate terms and potentially steal a march if allowed soft fractions early. The lack of pace pressure could see the field bunched turning for home, setting up a cavalry charge finish.
Runner profiles
Race scenarios
A
Goodwin Gets Away
35% probability
If the pace collapses and Goodwin is allowed easy sectionals early
Goodwin builds an unassailable lead while the field allows him too much rope, with late closers having too much ground to make up. The prominent runners like King Jon Oliver and Oh My Johnny struggle to close the gap despite their finishing kicks.
GoodwinChampagne TwistKing Jon OliverOh My Johnny
B
Strong Gallop Throughout
25% probability
If King Jon Oliver and Oh My Johnny press Goodwin from the start
The sustained pace stretches the field and favors the proven stayers with tactical speed. Libre De Choeur and Goshhowposh benefit from the strong gallop as hold-up horses with stamina reserves.
Libre De ChoeurOh My JohnnyGoshhowposhIdefix De Ciergues
C
Messy Mid-Race Pace
25% probability
If the pace becomes stop-start with no clear rhythm established
The race becomes a tactical affair with multiple horses still in contention at the last hurdle, favoring those with the best turn of foot. Magical King and Getaway Theatre emerge from the pack with superior finishing speed.
Magical KingGetaway TheatreKing Jon OliverChampagne Twist
D
Late Surge Scenario
15% probability
If the early pace is moderate but quickens significantly from three out
Hold-up horses find their rhythm late while early prominent runners tire, creating opportunities for patient rides. Sunray Shadow and Individualiste benefit from being held up as the race develops into a sprint finish.
GoshhowposhSunray ShadowLibre De ChoeurIndividualiste
Race position map
LeadProminentMidfieldHold up
Watch points
KEY
Watch if Goodwin gets too easy a lead early as the lack of pace pressure could allow him to dictate completely
WATCH
Monitor King Jon Oliver and Oh My Johnny for how aggressively they track Goodwin from the start
WATCH
Check if Libre De Choeur gets the strong pace he needs to be effective from his hold-up style
NOTE
Observe Getaway Theatre's jumping as he steps up in class despite his excellent soft ground form
NOTE
Watch for Magical King to be produced with his customary late run if the pace sets up favorably
4:55 — QuinnBet Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) (GBB Race)
2m · Soft · CLS5 · 9 runners
Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.
About this analysis
Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.
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