Archive›Warwick · 1 May 2026

Warwick

1 May 2026 · 7 races

✓ Historic — full access

Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

4:30 — Connolly's Red Mills Open Hunters' Chase

2m · Good · CLS5 · 3 runners

Franigane to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Franigane led, as the map showed.

Great Valley won at 1.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 3 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Franigane

Prominent · 2

Great ValleyOn Lovers Walk

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 0

None

Franigane will lead from the start with his confirmed front-running style, setting what should be a manageable pace given the small field and lack of other genuine pace horses. On Lovers Walk and Great Valley will both track prominently behind, creating a compact group throughout. With no genuine hold-up horses and limited early pressure on Franigane, this sets up as a sustained gallop that will favour the most talented horse who can quicken from a prominent position. This race shape strongly favours the prominent runners who can travel well and have a decisive turn of foot.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Great Valley Dominates Class

55% probability

If Great Valley travels smoothly in second behind Franigane's moderate pace

His superior class (OR 127) and good recent form will tell as he quickens decisively from the last fence. The sustained gallop will suit his prominent style perfectly against these inferior rivals.

Great ValleyOn Lovers WalkFranigane

On Lovers Walk Strike

25% probability

If the pace becomes stronger than expected or Great Valley doesn't handle the track

On Lovers Walk's excellent recent record (1/24f last time) and trainer Kelly Morgan's 100% strike rate in last 14 days gives her the edge. Her prominent style thrives when the pace is honest.

On Lovers WalkGreat ValleyFranigane

Franigane Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If Franigane gets loose on the lead and the others fail to close

Despite his 364-day layoff, his front-running style could steal this if he gets an uncontested lead and finds his old form. The small field helps him avoid interference and pressure.

FraniganeGreat ValleyOn Lovers Walk

Pace Collapse Shock

8% probability

If the early pace is crawling and it becomes a sprint finish

The lack of genuine pace could create a messy finish where any of the three could prevail based on jumping and position at the last. Form lines become less reliable in a slowly-run race.

On Lovers WalkGreat ValleyFranigane

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Great Valley's jumping under pressure - amateur rider Mr Guy Sankey may struggle if the race becomes tactical

WATCH

Franigane's fitness after 364 days off - any signs of rustiness early could end his chances quickly

WATCH

On Lovers Walk's ability to quicken - needs to prove she can match Great Valley's superior class rating

NOTE

Early pace development - if Franigane gets loose on the lead the complexion changes completely

NOTE

Jumping at the last fence - in a small field finish, one mistake could be decisive for any of the three

5:05 — Pertemps Network Intermediate Point-To-Point Hunters' Chase

3m1½f · Good · CLS4 · 6 runners

The Dancing Tree likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Practice Run led; the map had The Dancing Tree in front.

Ultimate Survivor won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

The Dancing Tree

Prominent · 1

Fame And Concrete

Midfield · 2

Ultimate SurvivorTellmesomethingood

Hold Up · 2

Practice RunMister Splash

The Dancing Tree will dictate terms from the front with Fame And Concrete sitting prominently, creating a steady but undemanding gallop in the early stages. With three hold-up horses (Mister Splash, Practice Run, Tellmesomethingood) and Ultimate Survivor's unknown style, there's limited early pressure on the leaders. The pace will build gradually through the middle section before accelerating from three out. This sustainable tempo strongly favours prominent racers and front runners who can control the race, while hold-up horses face the challenge of making up ground against horses who've had an easy lead.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If The Dancing Tree and Fame And Concrete dominate the early pace without pressure

The leaders dictate comfortable fractions and have energy reserves for the finish. Hold-up horses struggle to peg back the advantage against horses who've had an armchair ride.

The Dancing TreeFame And ConcretePractice RunUltimate Survivor

Late Challenge Success

25% probability

If the hold-up horses get strong runs from the back and the pace quickens late

Mister Splash and Practice Run benefit from their patient tactics as the early leaders tire. The combination of class and fresh legs tells in the final furlong.

Mister SplashPractice RunThe Dancing TreeUltimate Survivor

Ultimate Survivor Impact

20% probability

If Ultimate Survivor shows early speed and joins the pace battle

The unknown quantity changes the complexion by creating genuine early pressure. This forces a stronger gallop that could suit a late finisher or compromise the front runners.

Ultimate SurvivorTellmesomethingoodMister SplashFame And Concrete

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If all runners converge turning for home in a slowly-run affair

The race becomes a sprint finish where positioning and momentum matter most. Any horse with tactical speed and good jumping rhythm can capitalise on the bunched field.

Fame And ConcretePractice RunThe Dancing TreeMister Splash

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ultimate Survivor's early positioning will reveal if this becomes a genuine pace battle or allows The Dancing Tree an easy lead

WATCH

The Dancing Tree's jumping rhythm early on - any mistake could hand initiative to Fame And Concrete or invite pressure

NOTE

How quickly Mister Splash and Practice Run get into contention turning for home after their patient early tactics

WATCH

Fame And Concrete's willingness to press The Dancing Tree rather than sitting in behind and compromising hold-up horses

NOTE

Tellmesomethingood's position at halfway - needs to be closer than usual given likely steady early gallop

5:40 — GB Pointing Open Hunters' Chase

3m1½f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Alaphilippe likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Alaphilippe led, as the map showed.

Alaphilippe won at 2.38 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Alaphilippe

Prominent · 1

High Game Royal

Midfield · 1

Laurel Girl

Hold Up · 2

What A GlanceMister Coffey

Alaphilippe will lead from the start with no genuine pace pressure in this small field of five. High Game Royal may track in second, but with What A Glance and Mister Coffey both preferring to come from behind, the early gallop will be sedate. The lack of sustained pace pressure through the middle stages will create a race where the leaders can conserve energy for a sprint finish. This tactical setup strongly favours the front-running and prominent runners who can control the tempo and have first run when the race develops.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Alaphilippe Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Alaphilippe dictates an uncontested lead through halfway

The 12-year-old can nurse his advantage and use his 364-day freshness break positively, kicking clear when the hold-up horses are still organizing behind. High Game Royal's prominent style puts him perfectly placed to capitalize if the leader falters.

AlaphilippeHigh Game RoyalWhat A GlanceMister Coffey

High Game Royal Pounces

30% probability

If High Game Royal tracks the steady pace and produces his customary strong finish

The 9-year-old's recent good form and consistent placed efforts suit this tactical scenario perfectly. His prominent running style allows him to strike at the optimal moment when hold-up horses need more time.

High Game RoyalAlaphilippeWhat A GlanceMister Coffey

What A Glance Late Surge

15% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely slow and the hold-up horses get ideal racing room

The 11-year-old's hold-up style could exploit a dawdling tempo, but needs everything to fall right including the 49-day break working in his favor. This scenario requires multiple pace collapses up front.

What A GlanceMister CoffeyHigh Game RoyalAlaphilippe

Mister Coffey Henderson Magic

10% probability

If Nicky Henderson's charge finds significant improvement from his recent disappointing runs

The 11-year-old would need both a tactical race to suit hold-up runners and a return to his better form. His trainer's 6/21 recent record provides some hope but form suggests he's vulnerable.

Mister CoffeyWhat A GlanceHigh Game RoyalAlaphilippe

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Laurel Girl's fitness after 1353 days off - if she shows early pace or travels strongly, it completely changes all tactical assumptions.

WATCH

Alaphilippe's stamina reserves after 364 days off - watch for signs of fatigue in the final half-mile despite controlling the tempo.

WATCH

What A Glance and Mister Coffey getting outpaced if High Game Royal quickens approaching the second-last fence.

NOTE

High Game Royal's jumping rhythm tracking Alaphilippe - any early mistakes will compromise his tactical position.

NOTE

The overall pace through halfway - if genuinely slow it opens the door for hold-up runners despite the small field dynamics.

6:15 — Jonathan Neesom Memorial Open Hunters' Chase

3m1½f · Good · CLS4 · 4 runners

Imperial Esprit likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Corporal Jackjones led; the map had Imperial Esprit in front.

Corporal Jackjones won at 3.50 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Imperial Esprit

Prominent · 1

Crawter

Midfield · 2

Corporal JackjonesKilfilum Woods

Hold Up · 0

None

Imperial Esprit emerges as the sole confirmed pace-setter in this small field, with his consistent front-running style likely to dictate terms from the outset. All four runners show prominent tendencies, but Imperial Esprit's natural lead preference means he'll likely face minimal early pressure, allowing him to control the gallop over this extended trip. Crawter and Corporal Jackjones possess the tactical speed to track closely, while Kilfilum Woods may settle slightly further back given his more patient recent campaigns. This sustainable pace scenario heavily favours horses with the tactical pace to respond when Imperial Esprit kicks, making prominent runners with finishing pace the profile to follow.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Imperial Esprit Wire-to-Wire

45% probability

If Imperial Esprit gets an uncontested lead and maintains rhythm throughout

His 12-year-old experience allows him to judge the pace perfectly, kicking clear at the optimal moment when others struggle to respond. The combination of tactical advantage and recent consistency proves decisive over this stamina-testing distance.

Imperial EspritCorporal JackjonesCrawterKilfilum Woods

Late Pace Injection

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely searching with multiple horses tracking Imperial Esprit closely

The sustained gallop sets up perfectly for horses with proven finishing kicks, as Imperial Esprit's long absence begins to tell in the final half-mile. Fresh legs and recent racecourse experience become the determining factors.

Corporal JackjonesCrawterImperial EspritKilfilum Woods

Tactical Battle Unfolds

15% probability

If Crawter or Corporal Jackjones challenge Imperial Esprit earlier than expected in the home straight

The pace becomes genuinely competitive from three out, creating opportunities for any horse still travelling smoothly to capitalise on the leaders' efforts. Superior fitness levels and tactical positioning prove crucial.

Kilfilum WoodsCorporal JackjonesCrawterImperial Esprit

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If Imperial Esprit fails to fire after his lengthy absence and the pace becomes crawling

The race becomes a sprint from the home turn, suiting horses with instant acceleration rather than sustained galloping ability. Recent race fitness and sharp speed become premium assets in a tactical finish.

CrawterKilfilum WoodsCorporal JackjonesImperial Esprit

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Imperial Esprit's jumping rhythm early on - any hesitancy suggests his lengthy absence is telling and undermines his tactical advantage.

WATCH

Crawter's position tracking Imperial Esprit - if he's unable to sit close, his finishing kick becomes compromised over this stamina-sapping distance.

WATCH

Corporal Jackjones settling pattern - recent front-running wins may have made him keen, and fighting for his head would compromise his finishing effort.

NOTE

Kilfilum Woods travelling smoothly turning for home - his patient style needs others to set strong gallop to be effective.

NOTE

The pace through halfway - if genuinely steady, it transforms into sprint finish favouring horses with instant acceleration over sustained galloping ability.

6:50 — Natural Green Creative Spaces Mares' Open Hunters' Chase

3m1½f · Good · CLS4 · 7 runners

Loud And Proud to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Loud And Proud led, as the map showed.

Loud And Proud won at 13.00 — led, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Loud And Proud

Prominent · 2

Hollywood HarmonAll Loved Up

Midfield · 2

Police AcademyMissed Tee

Hold Up · 2

For RitaWalk Of No Shame

Loud And Proud is the only confirmed leader and should get an easy time on the front with Hollywood Harmon and All Loved Up the only prominent runners to provide any early company. The pace will be steady rather than strong given the lack of early pressure, allowing the front section to travel comfortably through the middle stages. With five hold-up horses including top-rated For Rita and improving Police Academy, this becomes a tactical affair where the leaders can dictate. This race shape clearly favours front runners and prominent racers who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large hold-up contingent.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Leaders Control Throughout

45% probability

If Loud And Proud gets uncontested lead and Hollywood Harmon tracks comfortably

The pace stays steady enough for the front pair to have energy for the finish while hold-up horses struggle to make up ground from poor positions. Traffic and positioning issues compound problems for the back markers.

Loud And ProudHollywood HarmonAll Loved UpPolice Academy

Hold-Up Horse Charges Late

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely strong or leaders tire dramatically

Police Academy or For Rita benefits from a strong gallop that sets up their preferred come-from-behind style perfectly. The class edge of these hold-up performers tells when others have emptied their tanks.

For RitaPolice AcademyMissed TeeWalk Of No Shame

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Hollywood Harmon positions perfectly behind Loud And Proud and times run ideally

The prominent runner avoids early pace pressure but stays close enough to strike when it matters most. Superior positioning gives crucial advantage over both leaders and hold-up horses stuck behind.

Hollywood HarmonAll Loved UpLoud And ProudFor Rita

Pace Collapse Chaos

10% probability

If Loud And Proud stops quickly and early pace becomes crawling slow

The race becomes a sprint finish where any horse can win regardless of early position. Form and class become less relevant than who gets the clearest run when the race ignites late.

Missed TeeWalk Of No ShamePolice AcademyHollywood Harmon

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Loud And Proud could have fitness issues after 153-day layoff when pace quickens in straight

WATCH

Traffic problems will be severe for hold-up horses Police Academy, For Rita, and Missed Tee if pace stays steady

NOTE

Hollywood Harmon's positioning behind the leader will be crucial to avoid being trapped on rails

WATCH

All Loved Up's 364-day absence makes stamina and fitness highly questionable despite good going record

NOTE

For Rita at 13 years old needs everything to drop right including strong pace and clear passage

7:25 — Foran Equine Open Hunters' Chase

4m1f · Good · CLS4 · 5 runners

Myth Buster to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

My Gift To You led; the map had Myth Buster in front.

My Gift To You won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Myth Buster

Prominent · 2

Jeffery's CrossSlipway

Midfield · 1

My Gift To You

Hold Up · 1

Peaches And Cream

Myth Buster will lead from the start with no other confirmed front-runners in this small field. The veteran 13-year-old should dictate a steady gallop over the marathon 4m1f trip, with Jeffery's Cross, My Gift To You and Slipway tracking in a compact group behind. Peaches And Cream will drop out last under hold-up tactics. This sustainable pace setup strongly favours prominent racers who can track the leader and kick from the final half-mile, making front-running difficult to sustain and hold-up tactics risky over such a staying trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Tracker Prevails

45% probability

If Myth Buster sets reasonable fractions and the prominent horses travel well

The race becomes a staying test where the classier prominent racers can time their challenge perfectly from close range. Jeffery's Cross or Slipway benefit most from tracking the leader before asserting superior stamina.

Jeffery's CrossSlipwayMy Gift To YouMyth Buster

Sustained Front Running

25% probability

If Myth Buster gets soft sectionals and maintains strong jumping rhythm throughout

The veteran leader capitalises on his early advantage and proven stamina to repel late challenges. His 97 days off could work positively for freshness over this extreme distance.

Myth BusterJeffery's CrossSlipwayMy Gift To You

Late Hold-Up Strike

20% probability

If the early pace becomes overly conservative and bunches the field

Peaches And Cream gets the perfect setup to unleash her finishing kick from the rear. The compact field and steady gallop allows her hold-up style to be devastating late.

Peaches And CreamMy Gift To YouJeffery's CrossSlipway

Pace Collapse Scramble

10% probability

If Myth Buster goes too fast early or makes jumping errors under pressure

The race becomes a survival test where any horse still travelling enters contention. Form and class become secondary to which horse handles the stamina examination best.

SlipwayJeffery's CrossMy Gift To YouPeaches And Cream

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Myth Buster's jumping rhythm early - any mistakes will compromise his front-running tactics and open the race up

WATCH

My Gift To You's fitness levels after 189 days away - could find the sustained gallop too much if ring-rusty

NOTE

Slipway's position tracking - needs to be handy turning for home to utilise his class advantage

WATCH

Peaches And Cream's ability to close the gap if the pace quickens approaching the final circuit

NOTE

Jeffery's Cross settling kindly behind Myth Buster without getting keen or wasting energy

8:00 — Carr & Day & Martin Open Hunters' Chase

2m4f · Good · CLS5 · 5 runners

Arthur's Sixpence to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Unexpected Party led; the map had Arthur's Sixpence in front.

Arthur's Sixpence won at 7.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Arthur's Sixpence

Prominent · 1

Unexpected Party

Midfield · 1

Hystery Bere

Hold Up · 2

Fan De BluesEmpire De Maulde

Arthur's Sixpence will dictate from the front with no other confirmed pace angles, allowing him to set a comfortable rhythm over this 2m4f trip. The three hold-up horses (Hystery Bere, Fan De Blues, Empire De Maulde) will settle behind while Unexpected Party tracks in a prominent position. With no pace pressure on the leader, this creates a tactical race where Arthur's Sixpence can control the tempo and potentially steal a march, though it also sets up perfectly for the superior-rated Unexpected Party to time a challenge from a tracking position. This pace scenario clearly favours prominent runners who can position close enough to the uncontested leader while having the class edge to strike.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If Arthur's Sixpence gets an easy lead and maintains momentum turning for home

The 12-year-old can dictate his own fractions without pressure and use his front-running style to maximum advantage. His three wins from 15 runs on good going shows he can handle these conditions when getting the right race shape.

Arthur's SixpenceUnexpected PartyFan De BluesEmpire De Maulde

Class Tells From Tracking

35% probability

If Unexpected Party gets the perfect trip tracking Arthur's Sixpence and produces her superior turn of foot

The OR 145-rated mare has the tactical speed to sit prominent and the class edge over this field when the race develops. Her recent course form (2P114) shows she's in good heart for Dan Skelton.

Unexpected PartyArthur's SixpenceEmpire De MauldeFan De Blues

Hold-Up Horse Strikes

12% probability

If the pace becomes truly pedestrian and allows one of the back markers to unleash a decisive late run

Empire De Maulde's dual experience on good going and 2W7P record from 15 runs gives him the profile to capitalise if the race falls apart. His hold-up style needs the tempo to collapse completely.

Empire De MauldeFan De BluesUnexpected PartyArthur's Sixpence

Tactical Muddle Benefits

8% probability

If Arthur's Sixpence goes too slow early then quickens, catching the hold-up horses napping

Fan De Blues could benefit from a messy tactical affair where his hold-up style gets the right gaps at the right time. His trainer Miss Nikki Henton sends out few runners so this represents a targeted opportunity.

Fan De BluesHystery BereArthur's SixpenceUnexpected Party

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Arthur's Sixpence must be watched for early pace - if he goes off too hard he'll empty out, if too slow he hands initiative to Unexpected Party

WATCH

Unexpected Party's jumping must be monitored closely as any mistake will hand Arthur's Sixpence crucial momentum in a small field

NOTE

The three amateur jockeys (Neal, Williams, O'Connor) on the hold-up horses need to position perfectly as there will be limited opportunities in a slowly-run race

WATCH

Empire De Maulde showed promise on good going but 42 days off makes his current wellbeing crucial to assess in the preliminaries

NOTE

Fan De Blues needs to be watched for market confidence given trainer Miss Nikki Henton's low strike rate but targeted approach

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 1 May 2026.

Tonight’s free races, in your inbox

Every free race on the card, mapped in full: how each should be run, who is likely to lead, and where every runner is expected to race. One email a morning. No tips, no selections.

One email a day. Unsubscribe whenever. Every race, every meeting →