Archive›Warwick · 20 May 2026

Warwick

20 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:30 — Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m3f · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Bathara to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Bathara led, as the map showed.

Rebel Tribesman won at 1.33 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

5 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Bathara

Prominent · 2

Rebel TribesmanRoyal Rocket

Midfield · 3

Blue's Secret GemAlex The GreatMadmoiselle Moss

Hold Up · 2

Mr RafikiThe Craftymaster

Bathara will lead from the start with no other confirmed front runners to pressure him, allowing the O'Neill charge to dictate a measured gallop through the early stages. Royal Rocket and Rebel Tribesman are likely to track prominently behind the leader, while the substantial hold-up brigade of Mr Rafiki, Blue's Secret Gem, The Craftymaster, Madmoiselle Moss and Alex The Great will settle at the rear. With so many horses looking to come from behind and only one natural leader, this sets up perfectly for prominent racers and the pace-setter who can control the tempo without pressure. This tactical scenario strongly favours front runners and prominent racers over the crowded hold-up contingent.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Bathara Controls Throughout

45% probability

If Bathara maintains a steady gallop and sees out the trip strongly

The leader faces no early pressure and can quicken when it matters, making it hard for the hold-up horses to close the gap. Rebel Tribesman tracking prominently is best placed to capitalize if Bathara falters.

BatharaRebel TribesmanRoyal RocketThe Craftymaster

Prominent Pair Dominate

30% probability

If Rebel Tribesman and Royal Rocket press Bathara from halfway

The increased pace stretches the field and exposes the weaker hold-up horses while the prominent pair have first run on the leader. Both have the class edge and are going the right way.

Rebel TribesmanRoyal RocketMr RafikiBathara

Late Hold-Up Surge

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes a sprint finish

The Craftymaster and Mr Rafiki get their preferred scenario with a slow pace suiting their flat credentials and late kick. The front runners become sitting ducks for the classier closers.

The CraftymasterMr RafikiRebel TribesmanRoyal Rocket

Weak Pace Backfires

10% probability

If Bathara goes too slowly and gets swamped by multiple challengers

Too many hold-up horses converge simultaneously creating traffic problems and allowing a prominent racer to steal through. The tactical chaos favours those with early position.

Royal RocketRebel TribesmanBlue's Secret GemBathara

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Bathara could get an uncontested lead and prove hard to peg back if his stamina holds over this longer trip

WATCH

Traffic problems likely in the home straight with five hold-up horses converging simultaneously from the back of the field

NOTE

The Craftymaster making his hurdles debut could be overbet given his stablemate Alex The Great was well beaten in a similar event

WATCH

Blue's Secret Gem returning quickly after just 16 days since a poor hurdles debut at Fakenham

NOTE

Rebel Tribesman has been favourite twice recently at Sedgefield suggesting connections expect him to win soon

3:00 — Logicor Grand Neighsional Handicap Chase

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Tom Desjy to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Tom Desjy led, as the map showed.

Yes And Yes won at 5.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Tom Desjy

Prominent · 3

The Moonlight ManJohn W CreasyTestflight

Midfield · 1

Grand Sabre

Hold Up · 2

EdgewellYes And Yes

Tom Desjy will lead from the flag with his confirmed front-running style, likely setting a sustainable gallop over this stamina test without serious pressure early. The prominent runners The Moonlight Man, Testflight, and John W Creasy will track within striking distance, while the hold-up quartet of Edgewell, Yes And Yes, and Grand Sabre will settle towards the rear. With only one dedicated leader and plenty of hold-up horses, this creates a tactical setup that strongly favours the patient types who can produce late finishing kicks over the final half-mile.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

65% probability

If Tom Desjy sets his usual honest gallop without serious pace pressure

The patient back-markers get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing speed in the final half-mile as the leader predictably fades. This tactical shape heavily favours the stamina-laden hold-up specialists who thrive when allowed to build momentum late.

EdgewellYes And YesGrand SabreTestflight

Leader Holds Gamely

20% probability

If Tom Desjy gets his own way in front and finds more stamina than usual

The front-runner maintains his advantage deeper into the race despite his known finishing limitations, holding off the late challengers who leave their run too late. His recent Southwell success suggests untapped stamina reserves over this longer trip.

Tom DesjyThe Moonlight ManEdgewellYes And Yes

Prominent Tracker Strikes

10% probability

If the prominent runners apply early pressure and quicken the tempo substantially

The increased pace suits the horses positioned handy who can capitalize when Tom Desjy predictably weakens, while also setting up too strong a gallop for the hold-up horses to make up ground. This benefits those with tactical speed from prominent positions.

The Moonlight ManTestflightJohn W CreasyEdgewell

Pace Collapses Early

5% probability

If Tom Desjy fails to handle the step up in class and folds before halfway

The race becomes a tactical crawl that turns into a sprint finish, suiting any horse with a turn of foot regardless of usual running style. This chaotic scenario opens the door for any runner with residual ability and recent form.

Yes And YesGrand SabreEdgewellThe Moonlight Man

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Tom Desjy's jumping under pressure in the final mile - if he makes mistakes when challenged, it could bring down trailing horses

WATCH

Testflight's fitness after 211 days off - any signs of rustiness early will confirm he needs this run badly

WATCH

Grand Sabre's response to first-time cheekpieces - if the headgear fails to spark improvement, his long absence becomes more concerning

NOTE

The pace through the early stages - if Tom Desjy goes too fast early, it will set up the hold-up horses even more perfectly

NOTE

Edgewell's jumping rhythm early - his recent wins came when settling well, so any early exuberance could compromise his chances

3:30 — Mane Event: Logicor Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 4 runners

Full Force Gale likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Rangatira Jack led; the map had Full Force Gale in front.

Rangatira Jack won at 3.25 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 2 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Full Force Gale

Prominent · 1

Rangatira Jack

Midfield · 0

None

Hold Up · 2

Jack DoyenKing Of The Story

Full Force Gale will set the pace from the front with no other confirmed pace-setters in this small field, creating a sustainable gallop throughout the 2m4f trip. Jack Doyen and King Of The Story will both be held up off the modest early pace, while Rangatira Jack may track closer but won't pressure the leader. The lack of pace pressure means Full Force Gale can dictate terms and kick when ready, while the hold-up horses face the challenge of making up ground from off a potentially steady tempo. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and front-runners who can control the tempo without being harassed.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Full Force Gale maintains control of the tempo without serious pressure

The leader can time his effort perfectly and prove too strong when quickening off a controlled pace. The hold-up horses struggle to make sufficient inroads from off the modest gallop.

Full Force GaleRangatira JackJack DoyenKing Of The Story

Hold Up Triumph

30% probability

If the early pace becomes genuinely steady and Jack Doyen gets the perfect ride

The 10-year-old's superior finishing kick proves decisive as he sweeps past tired leaders in the final furlong. King Of The Story may also benefit from similar tactics if close enough.

Jack DoyenKing Of The StoryFull Force GaleRangatira Jack

Tracking Horse Prevails

15% probability

If Rangatira Jack can sit handy without over-racing and Full Force Gale weakens

The prominent runner gets first run on the leaders and holds off the late challengers. His position throughout the race gives him the tactical advantage over both front and back runners.

Rangatira JackFull Force GaleJack DoyenKing Of The Story

Pace Collapse Finish

10% probability

If Full Force Gale sets unsustainably fast fractions under pressure from Rangatira Jack

The early pace becomes too strong and both leaders tie up badly in the final half-mile. This sets up a dramatic finish where stamina and late pace matter most.

King Of The StoryJack DoyenFull Force GaleRangatira Jack

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Jack Doyen running just one day after his last race could show signs of fatigue in the closing stages

WATCH

Full Force Gale needs to be allowed to dictate his own pace without early interference to be most effective

NOTE

King Of The Story requires strong pace to aim at given his hold-up style and recent absence

WATCH

Rangatira Jack must not get too keen tracking Full Force Gale or he'll compromise his finishing effort

NOTE

The small field means less cover for the hold-up horses Jack Doyen and King Of The Story

4:00 — Logic Defying Handicap Hurdle

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 7 runners

Lead contested: Crest Of Stars v King Of The RoadHISTORIC

How it ran

Il Va De Soi and Jimmy Hurdstrom led; the map had Crest Of Stars and King Of The Road in front.

Il Va De Soi won at 4.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Crest Of StarsKing Of The Road

Prominent · 3

Jimmy HurdstromChampagne TwistNorman Fletcher

Midfield · 1

Il Va De Soi

Hold Up · 1

La Vish

Crest Of Stars and King Of The Road will battle for the early lead, with both confirmed front-runners likely to go at it from the off over this staying trip. The sustained pace they create should stretch the field and make it a true test of stamina at 2m5f. With multiple prominent runners like Champagne Twist, Norman Fletcher, Jimmy Hurdstrom and Il Va De Soi positioned close up, the pace will be honest throughout. This honest gallop strongly favors front-runners and prominent racers who can travel well in the first four, as the lone hold-up horse La Vish will struggle to recover the ground they'll need to find.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominance

45% probability

If Crest Of Stars or King Of The Road can establish an uncontested lead early

The winner gets first run and maintains their advantage up the hill, with the sustained pace finding out those trying to close from off the pace. Prominent runners fill the places but can't reel in the leader.

Crest Of StarsKing Of The RoadIl Va De SoiChampagne Twist

Prominent Tracker Strikes

35% probability

If the two leaders go too hard and weaken in the straight

A horse like Il Va De Soi or Champagne Twist can pick up the pieces, having tracked the pace without getting embroiled in the early battle. The class and recent form of these horses tells late.

Il Va De SoiChampagne TwistNorman FletcherJimmy Hurdstrom

Sustained Speed Test

15% probability

If both leaders maintain their kick and neither gives an inch

The race becomes a war of attrition where only the most genuine stayers survive, with Crest Of Stars looking better suited to the trip than King Of The Road. Norman Fletcher could emerge as the best of the rest.

Crest Of StarsNorman FletcherKing Of The RoadIl Va De Soi

Hold Up Surprise

5% probability

If the pace collapses completely and becomes stop-start

La Vish gets the perfect setup to unleash her finishing kick from the back, though this scenario requires everything to fall perfectly for the lone closer. Even then, she'd need career-best form.

La VishJimmy HurdstromChampagne TwistIl Va De Soi

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

King Of The Road and Crest Of Stars disputing the lead too fiercely early could set this up for something tracking behind

WATCH

Il Va De Soi attempting to make all again just 11 days after his last win - quick turnaround may catch up with him

NOTE

La Vish's position turning for home will reveal if the pace has been strong enough to bring her into contention

WATCH

Champagne Twist's jumping after 53 days off following that Uttoxeter unseating incident

NOTE

Norman Fletcher's stamina reserves in the final furlong given his previous struggles beyond 2m4f

4:30 — Cor Blimey Gallop Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Buxted Reel likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Golly Gosh led; the map had Buxted Reel in front.

Allibaba won at 4.00 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Buxted Reel

Prominent · 2

Louie The LegendOnehundredneighty

Midfield · 3

AllibabaBabychinoGolly Gosh

Hold Up · 2

WestertonKarthala

This race lacks genuine early pace with only Buxted Reel, Louie The Legend and Onehundredneighty showing prominent tendencies, while six runners prefer to settle behind. Buxted Reel and Louie The Legend will likely share early duties at a steady gallop over this sharp 2m trip, creating an uncontested lead situation. The lack of pressure up front means the pace will be comfortable through the early stages, setting up a tactical finish where positioning matters more than raw speed. This race shape strongly favours prominent runners and those with tactical speed, as the hold-up horses face the difficult task of making up ground from too far back in a slowly-run race.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Dominate

45% probability

If Buxted Reel and Louie The Legend get an easy lead as expected

The comfortable pace allows the front pair to stay strong into the finish, with their superior tactical positions proving decisive. Hold-up horses struggle to close the gap from their deep positions in a slowly-run contest.

Buxted ReelLouie The LegendOnehundredneightyAllibaba

Tactical Speed Prevails

30% probability

If the pace becomes genuinely testing through mid-race pressure

The increased tempo stretches the field and favours horses with proven tactical ability who can position close enough to strike. Recent winner Allibaba and improving Louie The Legend benefit from their experience.

Louie The LegendAllibabaBuxted ReelWesterton

Hold-up Horse Surprise

15% probability

If the early pace is extremely pedestrian and collapses completely

The crawling gallop allows patient hold-up horses to get into contention despite their preferred style being compromised. Westerton and Karthala can use their finishing kicks to maximum effect.

WestertonKarthalaBabychinoGolly Gosh

Outsider Improvement Tale

10% probability

If the handicapper has got the weights wrong for improving types

A lightly-raced improver or returning horse shows significant advancement from their last run. Babychino or the headgear-assisted Golly Gosh could spring a surprise.

BabychinoGolly GoshKarthalaOnehundredneighty

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Buxted Reel could struggle with the sustained nature of hurdle racing after 257 days off and AW Flat background

WATCH

Market support for any of the hold-up horses would suggest connections expect a stronger pace than the evidence suggests

NOTE

Louie The Legend's position turning for home will be crucial as his prominent style perfectly suits this race shape

WATCH

Allibaba's ability to overcome the 9lb handicap rise and tactical disadvantage will test his Market Rasen winning form

NOTE

Any early pressure on the leaders from Onehundredneighty would completely change the complexion of this contest

5:00 — Love Warwick Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Kingston Sunflower to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kingston Sunflower led, as the map showed.

Brendas Asking won at 5.50 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up.

4 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Kingston Sunflower

Prominent · 4

Mojito Des MottesBluegrassForget The WayChief Sunday

Midfield · 1

Scintillante

Hold Up · 3

Unjeu RoyalHigh FibreBrendas Asking

Kingston Sunflower stands alone as the only confirmed front-runner, but hasn't run for 168 days and may lack match fitness to sustain the gallop. Four horses (Bluegrass, Forget The Way, Mojito Des Mottes, Chief Sunday) all want prominent positions early, creating congestion and potential traffic problems turning for home. The hold-up brigade of High Fibre, Brendas Asking, Unjeu Royal and Scintillante will benefit from this scenario, getting first run on horses caught in trouble. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can pick off faltering front-runners and avoid the prominent traffic jam.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Kingston Sunflower fades or the prominent pack goes too fast early

The pace collapses in the final half-mile as the early leaders pay for their exertions, allowing patient hold-up horses to sweep past tired front-runners. Fresh legs triumph over those who raced keenly in the congested prominent positions.

High FibreUnjue RoyalBrendas AskingScintillante

Prominent Battle Prevails

25% probability

If the prominent quartet settle better than expected and Kingston Sunflower sets moderate fractions

Bluegrass or Forget The Way get first run from their forward positions while the hold-up horses find themselves with too much ground to make up. The winner emerges from those who raced handy throughout without getting caught in serious traffic.

Forget The WayMojito Des MottesBluegrassChief Sunday

Kingston Sunflower Surprises

12% probability

If the long-absent leader proves fitter than expected and the field allows her comfortable fractions

Kingston Sunflower gets an uncontested lead and kicks clear when the field realizes too late that nobody is putting pressure on the front-runner. Her 4-5 record over hurdles suggests she knows how to win when getting her own way.

Kingston SunflowerHigh FibreUnjeu RoyalForget The Way

Messy Pace Chaos

8% probability

If Kingston Sunflower stops quickly and the prominent pack goes too slowly, creating stop-start fractions

The race becomes a tactical crawl with multiple horses still in contention turning for home, leading to a bunched finish where the best horse on the day wins regardless of tactics. Form and class become the deciding factors over race shape.

Mojito Des MottesHigh FibreScintillanteUnjeu Royal

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Kingston Sunflower's fitness after 168-day layoff - if she stops quickly the prominent pack will be going too fast trying to get to her

WATCH

Watch Bluegrass, Forget The Way, Mojito Des Mottes and Chief Sunday for traffic problems as all four want the same prominent position early

WATCH

Watch for Brendas Asking and Unjeu Royal getting strong late runs from off the pace if the early gallop is strong

NOTE

Watch James Turner's 5lb claim on Chief Sunday - won't be enough to overcome poor form but could help if he bounces back

NOTE

Watch the pace after 4 furlongs - if Kingston Sunflower is still traveling easily the field may have been too patient

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 20 May 2026.

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