Archive›Warwick · 23 April 2026

Warwick

23 April 2026 · 8 races

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Read from the in-running comments·How often this is right →

2:00 — Charlie Wilson Memorial Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m3f · Good · CLS4 · 10 runners

Virtuose d'Ainay to leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Mr Finch led; the map had Virtuose d'Ainay in front.

Mr Finch won at 2.38 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Virtuose d'Ainay

Prominent · 4

FullythermalTesting PatienceMr FinchVanderflier

Midfield · 2

Jorah d'AlmaStyle De Folie

Hold Up · 3

Lightfingered JackScottish AnthemHay Max

Virtuose d'Ainay is the sole confirmed front-runner but faces immediate pressure from four prominent runners (Mr Finch, Testing Patience, Style De Folie, Vanderflier, Jorah d'Alma) who will create early congestion behind the leader. This traffic jam will intensify around 2-3 out when the prominent brigade tries to challenge, potentially hampering each other's progress. The hold-up horses (Scottish Anthem, Lightfingered Jack, Hay Max) get a significant tactical advantage as they can avoid the carnage and pick up the pieces in the straight when others have compromised each other.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-up horses exploit chaos

55% probability

If the prominent runners interfere with each other when making their moves 2-3 out

The traffic problems allow Scottish Anthem and Lightfingered Jack to sweep past tired leaders who've been in a battle. Clean runs from the back prove decisive when the front-runners have been softened up.

Scottish AnthemLightfingered JackTesting PatienceMr Finch

Testing Patience survives scrum

25% probability

If Testing Patience can get first run on the prominent pack and avoid trouble

His superior form figures (RPR 123) tell when he gets a clear passage, overcoming the tactical disadvantage of his prominent style. The hold-up horses don't quite get there in time.

Testing PatienceMr FinchScottish AnthemJorah d'Alma

Virtuose d'Ainay wire-to-wire

12% probability

If the prominent runners neutralize each other early and fail to pressure the leader

The front-runner gets an easy lead and kicks clear before the hold-up horses can organize their challenge. His 152-day break becomes irrelevant with such tactical dominance.

Virtuose d'AinayTesting PatienceScottish AnthemMr Finch

Jorah d'Alma late surge

8% probability

If Jorah d'Alma's tongue-tie helps him find extra and he gets the right gaps late

The French import's best form (won over hurdles in France) emerges with the headgear assistance, timing his run to perfection. Ben Sutton's 5lb claim becomes crucial in a tight finish.

Jorah d'AlmaLightfingered JackTesting PatienceScottish Anthem

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for carnage 2-3 out when Mr Finch, Testing Patience, Vanderflier and Jorah d'Alma all try to challenge simultaneously

WATCH

Monitor if Virtuose d'Ainay shows any signs of his previous stamina failures that led to pull-ups

NOTE

Check if Scottish Anthem travels smoothly despite 228-day absence as his hold-up style could be crucial

WATCH

Observe whether Testing Patience can use his superior form to overcome the tactical disadvantage of prominent positioning

NOTE

Watch for improvement from Jorah d'Alma with tongue-tie fitted for first time in Britain

2:30 — John Sillett Memorial Handicap Hurdle

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 6 runners

Thank You Ma'am to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Thank You Ma'am led, as the map showed.

Lipa K won at 8.50 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 5 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Thank You Ma'am

Prominent · 2

J J MoonStep Ahead

Midfield · 1

Everyonesgame

Hold Up · 2

Lipa KBenign Dictator

Thank You Ma'am will have an uncontested lead from the start, with Step Ahead and J J Moon settling in behind but neither pressuring the pace early. The front runner can dictate a comfortable gallop over this 3m1f trip, controlling fractions without pressure through the early stages. With four hold-up horses (Everyonesgame, Benign Dictator, Lipa K) sitting well back, the race sets up as a classic front-runner's paradise where Thank You Ma'am can establish position cheaply then kick when ready. This race shape strongly favours the leader and prominent runners who can track the pace without exertion.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Front Runner Dominates

45% probability

If Thank You Ma'am gets an easy lead and kicks turning for home

The mare can control every fraction without pressure then use her tactical advantage to repel late challengers. Step Ahead and J J Moon benefit from tracking the winner but can't quite reel her in.

Thank You Ma'amStep AheadJ J MoonBenign Dictator

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If Step Ahead or J J Moon apply pressure from 3f out

The pace quickens significantly in the straight, exposing Thank You Ma'am's stamina while suiting horses with tactical speed. This creates the perfect scenario for a well-positioned tracker to strike late.

Step AheadJ J MoonThank You Ma'amBenign Dictator

Hold-Up Horse Surge

15% probability

If the pace stays very slow and becomes a sprint home

The lack of early pace allows the back markers to close dramatically in the final furlong. Everyonesgame and Benign Dictator benefit most from a truly-run finish where class tells.

EveryonesgameBenign DictatorLipa KJ J Moon

Lipa K Revival

10% probability

If the long absence doesn't matter and class surfaces

The 179-day break proves irrelevant as superior ability shines through in a tactical finish. Lipa K's Aintree second form is the best in the field if reproducible off this layoff.

Lipa KEveryonesgameBenign DictatorThank You Ma'am

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Thank You Ma'am may get too easy a lead early and have enough left to repel all challengers in straight

WATCH

Lipa K's 179-day absence could prove too much to overcome despite possessing highest-rated recent form

NOTE

Step Ahead's prominent style perfectly suits this pace setup if he can quicken off steady gallop

WATCH

Benign Dictator wearing new blinkers suggests connections are concerned about recent below-par efforts

NOTE

J J Moon's stamina at 3m+ remains question mark with only limited evidence at this extended trip

3:00 — Sporting Agenda Challenger Series Mares' Chase Final Handicap Chase (Series Final) (GBB Race)

3m1½f · Good · HCAP · 11 runners

Party Vibes likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Realta Liath and Lagonda led; the map had Party Vibes in front.

Theonewedreamof won at 1.73 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

0 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Party Vibes

Prominent · 3

Ede'iffs RockMinniemumSunday Soldier

Midfield · 4

LagondaQueens WishKalista LoveKosasiempre

Hold Up · 3

TheonewedreamofHoletownRealta Liath

Party Vibes will lead from the start with Ede'iffs Rock, Minniemum, and Lagonda tracking close behind in the early stages. The pace should be genuine but not excessive over this stamina test, with Party Vibes allowed to dictate without serious pressure until the business end. From three out, the prominently-raced horses will come under pressure first, allowing the hold-up performers like Theonewedreamof, Kalista Love, and Holetown to unleash their finishing kicks. This pace dynamic strongly favours hold-up horses who can stay the extended trip and benefit from a solid gallop to aim at.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the pace stays honest but not excessive, allowing strong finishers to close

The genuine gallop will set up perfectly for horses coming from behind, with stamina reserves proving crucial in the final furlong. Theonewedreamof and Holetown have the class and tactical profile to capitalise.

TheonewedreamofHoletownKalista LoveRealta Liath

Front Rank Holds On

25% probability

If Party Vibes or Ede'iffs Rock get away with a controlled pace up front

The leaders will have enough left in reserve to resist late challenges, particularly if the ground doesn't deteriorate. Party Vibes' recent course form and Ede'iffs Rock's front-running prowess make them dangerous.

Party VibesEde'iffs RockMinniemumSunday Soldier

Mid-Division Proves Best

12% probability

If the pace collapses or becomes stop-start, neutralising finishing kicks

Horses positioned in fourth to sixth will find themselves ideally placed when the race develops, avoiding pace problems. Minniemum's class and Kosasiempre's stamina could prove decisive from these positions.

MinniemumKosasiempreParty VibesSunday Soldier

Pace Collapse Lottery

8% probability

If Party Vibes goes too slow early and it becomes a sprint finish

The lack of early pace will turn this into a tactical affair where any horse with a turn of foot can win. Queens Wish at the bottom of the weights or an improving type like Sunday Soldier could steal it.

Queens WishSunday SoldierLagondaKalista Love

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Party Vibes sets fractions that are too strong early and compounds into the straight, destroying her finishing kick

WATCH

Ede'iffs Rock's amateur rider Darren Andrews makes tactical errors at crucial jumping obstacles in the home straight

WATCH

Theonewedreamof and Holetown get too far back in the early stages and leave themselves impossible tasks from the rear

NOTE

Minniemum travels strongly into contention but fails to quicken under pressure like she did when winning this last year

NOTE

The pace becomes tactical early with Party Vibes going too slow, turning this into a sprint finish that favours different profiles

3:30 — KTDA Mares' Challenger Series Final Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) (GBB Race)

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 12 runners

Audacious Annie to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Hard Dealt led; the map had Audacious Annie in front.

Service Minimum won at 2.62 — was held up, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

4 of 10 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Audacious Annie

Prominent · 5

Siog GealRula BulaPretendingHard DealtCountry Mouse

Midfield · 2

Pismo BeachKeep On Cobbling

Hold Up · 4

Rockola VogueGreyvalService MinimumCrazierthandaisy

Audacious Annie will lead from the start with no genuine pace rival, creating a controlled tempo over the first circuit. Five horses (Siog Geal, Pretending, Rula Bula, Hard Dealt, Country Mouse) will bunch up prominently behind the leader, creating traffic congestion approaching the final three hurdles. The hold-up brigade (Rockola Vogue, Greyval, Pismo Beach, Crazierthandaisy, Keep On Cobbling, Service Minimum) will have ground to make up in the straight. This moderate early pace followed by prominent crowding strongly favours front-running tactics and horses positioned closest to the pace.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Audacious Annie Sustains

40% probability

If the leader maintains her advantage through the congestion and isn't headed approaching the last

Audacious Annie gets first run on the field while the prominent pack interfere with each other, allowing her to build an unassailable lead despite her long absence. Her two previous course wins prove she handles Warwick's demands when dictating terms.

Audacious AnnieSiog GealPretendingHard Dealt

Prominent Power Play

35% probability

If the bunch behind Audacious Annie produces the winner from their traffic battle

The five prominent runners create their own mini-race within a race, with the classiest among them (Siog Geal or Pretending) fighting clear of the scrimmaging. Their forward positions give them crucial tactical advantage over the hold-up horses who face an impossible task.

Siog GealPretendingRula BulaHard Dealt

Hold-Up Hero Strikes

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and allows a closer to sweep past the tiring leaders

The moderate early gallop plays into the hands of a classy hold-up performer who can quicken late despite giving ground away early. Pismo Beach or Crazierthandaisy could benefit if their jockeys time their run perfectly through gaps.

Pismo BeachCrazierthandaisyRockola VogueService Minimum

Complete Pace Collapse

10% probability

If Audacious Annie sets crawling fractions and gets headed by multiple challengers in the straight

The lack of early pressure creates a bunched field turning for home, leading to a cavalry charge finish. This scenario requires perfect jumping and positioning from the eventual winner as gaps become scarce.

Service MinimumGreyvalKeep On CobblingCountry Mouse

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Audacious Annie could steal this if she gets soft fractions early and the field allows her to dictate completely unchallenged

WATCH

Traffic chaos developing 2-3 hurdles from home as five prominent runners (Siog Geal, Pretending, Rula Bula, Hard Dealt, Country Mouse) converge simultaneously

WATCH

Greyval returning from 78-day layoff as defending champion, any market confidence suggests hidden fitness work

NOTE

Pismo Beach and Crazierthandaisy need significant pace collapse to overcome their hold-up disadvantage

NOTE

Service Minimum's recent Bangor win came on good ground, suggesting she handles today's conditions better than her Market Rasen flop

4:00 — Vanessa Littler's 60th Birthday Handicap Chase

2m · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Ballywood to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Lunar Ocean led; the map had Ballywood in front.

Zoeman won at 3.00 — raced midfield, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

2 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Ballywood

Prominent · 1

Ironica De Thaix

Midfield · 4

Golden MillieBlackijo DagrostisLunar OceanLone Soldier

Hold Up · 3

ForcetoreckonwithZoemanKally Des Bruyeres

Ballywood is the only confirmed front-runner and will get an uncontested lead from flag to finish, setting a moderate gallop that won't stretch the field early. With eight hold-up horses tracking behind including Zoeman, Forcetoreckonwith and Kally Des Bruyeres, this becomes a tactical affair where positioning and timing matter more than raw pace. The lack of early pressure allows patient riders to deliver late challenges, but Ballywood's soft lead gives him every chance to resist. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can quicken late, as they'll face minimal early pace and can time their runs to perfection.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Holds

45% probability

If Ballywood gets his preferred soft lead and jumps cleanly throughout.

The 12-year-old controls the tempo completely and has enough left to resist late challenges, particularly with his recent Huntingdon near-miss showing retained ability. His 149lbs burden and Tabitha Worsley's 5lb claim make him hard to peg back.

BallywoodKally Des BruyeresForcetoreckonwithZoeman

Late Surge Prevails

35% probability

If the lack of early pace allows multiple hold-up horses to arrive with winning chances.

Forcetoreckonwith and Zoeman benefit most from the tactical setup, with their proven chase form and patient riding styles perfectly suited to a finish where several can win. The stronger finishers overcome Ballywood's early advantage.

ForcetoreckonwithZoemanKally Des BruyeresLunar Ocean

Improving Chaser Strikes

12% probability

If Kally Des Bruyeres' recent Market Rasen win signals genuine progress over fences.

The six-year-old's dual hurdle wins and narrow chase success show he's still improving, and Tom Bellamy can position him perfectly behind the slow pace. His grade rise looks manageable given his upward trajectory.

Kally Des BruyeresGolden MillieForcetoreckonwithBallywood

Outsider Benefits

8% probability

If the tactical nature and good ground allows a longer-priced runner to outfinish the favourites.

Lunar Ocean or Blackijo Dagrostis profit from being overlooked while getting ideal race conditions, with their patient styles suiting the setup perfectly. The even pace exposes class differences less than usual.

Lunar OceanBlackijo DagrostisGolden MillieLone Soldier

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Ballywood must be monitored for early jumping errors as any mistake will compromise his front-running tactics and hand the initiative to patient followers.

WATCH

Zoeman's first run without cheekpieces after 77 days off needs close attention, as his Huntingdon flop suggests the headgear change affected him negatively.

WATCH

Ironica De Thaix has shown fading tendencies and pulled up last time, making her a potential non-completion risk in this longer chase.

NOTE

The pace will be crucial to monitor early as Ballywood's uncontested lead could become either a winning advantage or energy-sapping liability.

NOTE

Several hold-up horses including Forcetoreckonwith and Kally Des Bruyeres will need clear runs in the straight to deliver their best finishing kicks.

4:30 — Molly Ollys Charity Partner Of The Year Handicap Hurdle

2m3f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

3 vying for the leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Ballynorth led; the map had Inion Tiogair and Midnight View and Pottersjetamay in front.

Midnight View won at 17.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it led. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 9 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Inion TiogairMidnight ViewPottersjetamay

Prominent · 5

Son Of HypnosCan't Resist ItOrange DiamondBallynorthStung By Tariffs

Midfield · 1

Major Major

Hold Up · 4

KillycarnSnapiusBannisterMexican Stan

Inion Tiogair, Midnight View, and Pottersjetamay will ensure a strong early gallop over this stamina-testing 2m3f trip at Warwick. Inion Tiogair has been making all recently at Chepstow, while Midnight View showed early speed in his placed efforts, and Pottersjetamay consistently forces the pace. This sustained gallop will stretch the field and test stamina reserves over the final half-mile. The strong pace heavily favours hold-up horses and prominent runners with proven stamina, as early leaders will struggle to sustain their effort.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Strong Pace Collapse

45% probability

If the three front-runners go too fast early and weaken markedly

The sustained gallop will set up perfectly for the hold-up horses to pick off the pace-setters in the final furlong. Bannister, Snapius, and Killycarn all have the tactical speed to capitalize when the leaders tire.

SnapiusKillycarnBannisterMajor Major

Pace Leader Survives

25% probability

If Inion Tiogair can control the tempo and kick clear

Her recent Chepstow wins show she can dictate and maintain, especially with the step up to this stamina-testing trip suiting. Orange Diamond could track and challenge late having won over similar distances.

Inion TiogairOrange DiamondPottersjetamaySon Of Hypnos

Prominent Tracker Wins

20% probability

If Son Of Hypnos or Can't Resist It can sit close and pounce

The strong pace will soften up the leaders perfectly for horses that can race prominently without leading. Both have shown they can finish strongly when positioned just off the pace.

Son Of HypnosCan't Resist ItStung By TariffsBallynorth

Tactical Muddle

10% probability

If the pace becomes stop-start with leaders going too slow

Without the expected strong gallop, horses with natural speed like Pottersjetamay could dominate from the front. This would compromise the hold-up horses who need a true test of stamina.

PottersjetamayMidnight ViewOrange DiamondMexican Stan

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Inion Tiogair could set too strong a pace early and compromise her own finishing effort despite recent wins

WATCH

Pottersjetamay's 17lb weight allowance makes him dangerous if he can control the tempo from the front

NOTE

Snapius returning quickly from his Huntingdon win could be primed for another bold showing

WATCH

Several horses returning from lengthy breaks including Bannister (161 days) and Orange Diamond (91 days)

NOTE

Multiple first-time headgear changes including Ballynorth's hood and Major Major's blinkers switch

5:02 — Saumur Cup Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: Roger Rarebit v Caterpillar GirlHISTORIC

How it ran

Sleeping Satellite led; the map had Roger Rarebit and Caterpillar Girl in front.

Move With The Beat won at 2.75 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Roger RarebitCaterpillar Girl

Prominent · 2

Moonshine ManSleeping Satellite

Midfield · 2

Claim Du BrizaisBahtiyar

Hold Up · 2

Move With The BeatTwo To Tango

Roger Rarebit and Caterpillar Girl will contest the early lead, with Sleeping Satellite likely to track close behind given his prominent style. The pace should be honest but not overly demanding over 2m4f with three natural front-runners in the field. Moonshine Man will also be handy early, creating a solid gallop that should set up the race nicely. This tactical setup clearly favours the hold-up horses who can sit off the pace and deliver late kicks, as the leaders will have done plenty of work by the home turn.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Benefit

55% probability

If the front-runners Roger Rarebit and Caterpillar Girl go too hard early and compromise each other

The honest pace will weaken the leaders approaching the final fence, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past with fresher finishing kicks. Two To Tango and Move With The Beat are perfectly positioned to exploit this scenario with their proven late-running styles.

Two To TangoMove With The BeatClaim Du BrizaisBahtiyar

Front-Runner Gets Away

25% probability

If Roger Rarebit can establish a clear lead and dictate fractions without serious pressure from Caterpillar Girl

The 9-year-old's class and course form will tell as he strings out the field with controlled front-running. His recent consistency and proven ability at the trip makes him dangerous if allowed his own way.

Roger RarebitSleeping SatelliteMoonshine ManTwo To Tango

Prominent Tracker Strikes

12% probability

If Sleeping Satellite can sit just behind the leaders and time his challenge perfectly approaching the last

His dual make-all wins in autumn show he has the tactical speed to quicken, and tracking the pace allows him to avoid the early battle while staying close enough to pounce. Moonshine Man's similar prominent style could also profit from this patient approach.

Sleeping SatelliteMoonshine ManMove With The BeatRoger Rarebit

Chaos Benefits Outsider

8% probability

If the race develops into a messy scramble with multiple fallers or a crawling pace that negates class

The handicapper's dream scenario where form gets turned upside down and an improving type can spring a surprise. Claim Du Brizais showed his best chase form here last time and could capitalize on any confusion.

Claim Du BrizaisCaterpillar GirlBahtiyarMove With The Beat

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Watch for Roger Rarebit and Caterpillar Girl going too fast early and compromising each other's chances

WATCH

Monitor how quickly Two To Tango and Move With The Beat can get into contention from their hold-up positions

NOTE

Observe whether Sleeping Satellite chooses to lead or track the pace given his tactical flexibility

WATCH

Check if Moonshine Man shows any ring-rustiness after his 80-day layoff when the pace quickens

NOTE

Note how Claim Du Brizais handles the likely strong gallop given his progressive chase form here last time

5:35 — Molly Ollys Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS5 · 16 runners

Pace map not available — insufficient prior race data for this field.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 23 April 2026.

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