Archive›Warwick · 4 May 2026

Warwick

4 May 2026 · 6 races

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2:40 — Moore & Tibbits Family Fun Day Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 14 runners

3 vying for the leadFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

Crystal Days led; the map had Look This Way and Babs and Risk De Cerisy in front.

Crystal Days won at 5.50 — led, where the map had it raced prominently. One of the race scenarios named it.

6 of 13 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 3

Look This WayBabsRisk De Cerisy

Prominent · 5

Mrs CravatteMartha's CottageElatedCrystal DaysDinkys Rose

Midfield · 2

MaxianiCushendall

Hold Up · 4

G WhizzCrystal JetGreat DanceNo Risk Today

Look This Way, Babs, and Risk De Cerisy will set a relentless gallop from the start, with three confirmed front runners ensuring no hiding place in this 14-runner maiden. The strong early pace will stretch the field and test stamina reserves over the final 3 furlongs. Hold-up horses like Great Dance, G Whizz, and Crystal Jet will get the perfect setup as the pace-setters tire, while prominent runners may find themselves caught between groups. This race shape strongly favours hold-up performers who can pick up the pieces when the early leaders weaken.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the three front runners maintain a strong gallop to halfway before weakening

The relentless early pace will set up perfectly for horses held up in rear who can unleash late runs. Patient tactics will be rewarded as the pace collapses in the final furlong.

Great DanceCrystal JetG WhizzNo Risk Today

Prominent Runner Strikes

25% probability

If one of the prominent runners can position perfectly behind the pace-setters

Crystal Days or Elated could track the leaders without doing too much early work and have enough left to strike. The pace will still be strong enough to set it up for those just behind the leaders.

Crystal DaysElatedMartha's CottageMrs Cravatte

Front Runner Survives

12% probability

If the pace becomes more measured than expected with one leader getting first run

Babs has winning form on good ground and could dictate from the front if the other two leaders don't cooperate. A more tactical race would suit her experience and proven stamina.

BabsRisk De CerisyLook This WayCrystal Days

Surprise Package Emerges

8% probability

If the pace is truly unsustainable and collapses dramatically in the final quarter-mile

The race could fall apart completely, allowing an unfancied hold-up horse to come from nowhere. Cushendall has winning form and could benefit from a truly-run race despite his low rating.

CushendallMaxianiDinkys RoseNo Risk Today

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Look This Way and Babs both show tendency to fade in finish despite being front runners - if both go hard early they could collapse

WATCH

Crystal Jet carries 5lb claiming jockey Isabelle Ryder but has winning form and ideal hold-up style for this pace setup

NOTE

Great Dance has strongest recent form with a win last time and hold-up style perfectly suits expected pace scenario

WATCH

Risk De Cerisy from in-form Dan Skelton yard likely to ensure strong pace but question marks over stamina at finish

NOTE

Crystal Days and Elated both represent Ben Pauling who has 2 runners - watch for stable tactics between the pair

3:15 — Moore & Tibbits Solicitors Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Uncle Phil to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Politacus led; the map had Uncle Phil in front.

Neigh Botha won at 9.50 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Uncle Phil

Prominent · 3

Yes IndeedLacrimaTommy Cullen

Midfield · 2

PolitacusNeigh Botha

Hold Up · 2

Irish ChorusIn This World

Uncle Phil is the sole confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the outset without early pressure. With Yes Indeed, Tommy Cullen, Politacus, Neigh Botha and Lacrima all positioned prominently behind him, there's depth to the early positions but no genuine pace pressure. Irish Chorus and In This World are the only hold-up horses, leaving them reliant on Uncle Phil maintaining a searching gallop throughout. This sustainable pace setup strongly favours prominent racers and the lone leader, as the hold-up pair face a tactical disadvantage in a race lacking genuine early burn.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Uncle Phil maintains a steady rhythm without being pressured early

The lack of pace pressure allows him to dictate ideal fractions and kick clear when ready. The prominent horses behind struggle to bridge the gap as he controls the tempo throughout.

Uncle PhilYes IndeedTommy CullenNeigh Botha

Prominent Takeover

30% probability

If the prominent quartet apply pressure to Uncle Phil from halfway

Uncle Phil's bold front running comes under sustained pressure as multiple prominent racers close in. One of the stronger prominent horses like Tommy Cullen or Yes Indeed capitalizes on their tracking position to prevail.

Tommy CullenYes IndeedNeigh BothaPolitacus

Hold-Up Strike

15% probability

If Uncle Phil sets genuinely strong fractions despite the lack of early pace

The sustained tempo stretches the field and allows Irish Chorus or In This World to unleash their finishing kicks. Their class tells as the early pace takes its toll on the front division.

Irish ChorusIn This WorldYes IndeedTommy Cullen

Long Range Assault

10% probability

If Neigh Botha or Lacrima make their move approaching the home turn

The lighter-weighted horses use their handicap advantage to strike early and maintain momentum. Their tactical boldness catches the pace-setter and other prominent horses off guard.

Neigh BothaLacrimaUncle PhilPolitacus

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Uncle Phil could steal this if allowed uncontested lead as no other genuine pace-setters will pressure him early

WATCH

Irish Chorus and In This World both rely heavily on strong pace development that may not materialize

WATCH

Tommy Cullen returning after 183-day layoff despite strong historical form on good going

NOTE

Neigh Botha carries significant weight advantage at 153lbs which could prove decisive in tight finish

NOTE

Multiple prominent runners could create mid-race cavalry charge if they coordinate pressure on Uncle Phil

3:50 — Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Handicap Hurdle

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Georges Street to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Cinderello won at 3.50 — raced midfield, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Georges Street

Prominent · 3

ReformeSir RockHalf Pint Daisy

Midfield · 2

CinderelloLady Harriett

Hold Up · 2

SpitalfieldJet Joe

Georges Street will take the early lead with only limited company from prominent runners Reforme, Sir Rock and Half Pint Daisy. This creates an uncontested front-running scenario where Georges Street can dictate terms without pressure, likely producing a steady gallop that quickens late. The bulk of the field contains hold-up horses (Spitalfield, Cinderello, Lady Harriett, Jet Joe) who will rely on the pace collapsing. This race shape strongly favours front runners and prominent racers who can track the gentle pace and kick when it matters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominates

45% probability

If Georges Street gets an easy lead and stays on strongly

The lone pace-setter faces minimal early pressure and can control the race tactically before finding extra in the straight. Hold-up horses struggle to close the gap from too far back against a horse who hasn't been softened up.

Georges StreetReformeSir RockHalf Pint Daisy

Prominent Tracker Strikes

30% probability

If the early pace proves too slow for Georges Street

Reforme or Sir Rock can track the leader closely and have more tactical speed when the race develops in earnest. The front runner pays for making the running while prominent horses get first run.

ReformeSir RockGeorges StreetHalf Pint Daisy

Late Closer Emerges

15% probability

If the pace completely collapses and becomes a sprint finish

Cinderello or Spitalfield benefit from their hold-up style as the race becomes a pure stamina test over the final half-mile. Their fresh legs tell against horses who've been closer to the pace throughout.

CinderelloSpitalfieldLady HarriettJet Joe

Pace Muddle Benefits Outsider

10% probability

If tactical riding produces a stop-start gallop with multiple pace changes

Half Pint Daisy or Lady Harriett can pick up the pieces when the race falls apart tactically. Their versatile styles allow them to adapt when others struggle with the changing tempo.

Half Pint DaisyLady HarriettGeorges StreetCinderello

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Georges Street must prove he can see out this longer trip after recent efforts suggest stamina limitations

WATCH

Spitalfield needs the cheekpieces to spark improvement after a dire run of form this year

NOTE

Sir Rock carries significant fitness concerns after 178 days off the track despite his class advantage

WATCH

Jet Joe has shown a pattern of fading in the finish which could be fatal over this staying trip

NOTE

Half Pint Daisy needs to find significant improvement to trouble these despite her consistent efforts

4:25 — M&T Solicitors In Warwick Handicap Chase (GBB Race)

2m4f · Good · HCAP · 9 runners

Another Folly to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Theonlywayiswessex and Another Folly led, as the map showed.

Full Force Gale won at 4.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

7 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Another Folly

Prominent · 3

Imperial BedeDj PeteFull Force Gale

Midfield · 2

TheonlywayiswessexDiligent Militia

Hold Up · 3

Start AgainSalley GardensHarel Du Marais

Another Folly will lead this field from the start with no other confirmed front-runners to challenge the early tempo. This creates a comfortable, uncontested pace scenario where the leader can dictate fractions without pressure through the early and middle stages. Imperial Bede, Full Force Gale and Dj Pete will track in behind but none are aggressive early types. This measured tempo strongly favors hold-up horses who can produce late kicks, as the lack of early pace will leave plenty in reserve for the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Leader Dominance

45% probability

If Another Folly gets easy fractions and stays strong

The Jane Williams runner controls every call without pressure and has enough left to resist late challengers. His soft lead setup negates the hold-up horses' usual finishing advantage.

Another FollyImperial BedeFull Force GaleDj Pete

Hold-Up Horse Surge

35% probability

If the pace becomes truly crawling and sets up a sprint finish

The slow tempo allows the back-markers to unleash devastating late runs with maximum energy reserves. Harel Du Marais and Theonlywayiswessex benefit most from this tactical scenario.

Harel Du MaraisTheonlywayiswessexStart AgainSalley Gardens

Prominent Tracker Success

15% probability

If Imperial Bede or Full Force Gale get ideal stalking positions

The prominent runners can monitor Another Folly's move while staying close enough to pounce when the leader weakens. Their tactical positioning proves optimal for this intermediate pace.

Imperial BedeFull Force GaleDj PeteAnother Folly

Pace Collapse Scramble

5% probability

If Another Folly stops quickly and creates a chaotic finish

The leader's stamina gives out completely, turning the race into a messy sprint where any horse can capitalize. Form and class become secondary to who finds the best late run.

Start AgainDiligent MilitiaSalley GardensHarel Du Marais

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Another Folly must be monitored closely for signs of stopping as his recent fourth-place efforts suggest stamina concerns

WATCH

Imperial Bede's early positioning will be crucial - if he gets too far back the uncontested pace may not suit his style

NOTE

Theonlywayiswessex needs to show early signs of fitness given the long absence or he becomes backable at bigger odds

WATCH

The pace through halfway will determine everything - if it's genuinely slow the hold-up horses become very dangerous

NOTE

Start Again's jumping on chase debut must be watched as any mistakes will end his chances from off the pace

5:00 — Moore & Tibbits Handicap Hurdle

2m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Continuance to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Jaminska led; the map had Continuance in front.

Wondering Why won at 4.50 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Continuance

Prominent · 3

Wild GooseWondering WhyJaminska

Midfield · 2

Gentleman JoeSeraphic

Hold Up · 2

Turn And FinishNap Hand

Continuance will lead from the outset with no genuine pace pressure, allowing him to dictate a comfortable rhythm through the early stages. The prominent runners Jaminska, Wild Goose, Wondering Why and Gentleman Joe will track behind in a pack, while the hold-up horses Nap Hand, Turn And Finish and Seraphic will be anchored towards the rear. This controlled tempo will set up a sprint finish where positioning and tactical acumen become crucial. This race shape clearly favours the prominent racers who can sit close enough to strike but avoid the front-runner's fate if the pace quickens late.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Prominent Runners Prevail

45% probability

If the pace stays steady until the home turn then quickens

The tracking pack gets first run on the tiring leader while the hold-up horses are caught too far back. Jaminska and Wild Goose are perfectly positioned to capitalize with their class and recent form.

JaminskaWild GooseWondering WhyGentleman Joe

Hold-Up Horses Charge

30% probability

If the pace becomes truly searching from halfway

The early speed collapses dramatically in the final furlong, allowing the closers to sweep past. Nap Hand's class tells while Turn And Finish benefits from his long absence.

Nap HandTurn And FinishSeraphicWild Goose

Leader Steals It

15% probability

If Continuance maintains his kick when challenged

The front-runner's extended break pays dividends as he finds extra when the field closes, holding off late challengers. His tactical position proves unbeatable despite the long layoff.

ContinuanceJaminskaWild GooseNap Hand

Pace Collapses Early

10% probability

If no horse wants to race up with Continuance

The entire field bunches up creating a cavalry charge finish where any horse can win. The lightest weighted Seraphic or the freshest Wondering Why could capitalize on the chaos.

SeraphicWondering WhyGentleman JoeTurn And Finish

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Continuance's jumping under no early pressure - any mistake could end his chances when the field is still bunched

WATCH

Turn And Finish's fitness after 162 days off - may need the run despite his hold-up style suiting the likely pace

NOTE

Wild Goose's response to first-time tongue-tie which could provide the edge needed off top weight

NOTE

Nap Hand's positioning early - needs to be handy enough if the kick comes sooner than expected

WATCH

Jaminska's jumping rhythm if tracking too close to a steady pace - may get impatient and make errors

5:35 — Racing To School Celebrating 25 Years Mares' Handicap Hurdle

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 13 runners

Mistral Blue likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

No horse was credited with leading.

Shesonnet won at 34.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced prominently.

5 of 11 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Mistral Blue

Prominent · 2

ShesonnetLuna Run

Midfield · 6

JlowCrystal BoxAbbey LawEskimo SamBurgeonMc'flo

Hold Up · 4

Hello CelloInnisfree PearlJessie Jump JetFlying Pimpernel

Mistral Blue will take the early lead with minimal opposition, as most of this field are hold-up merchants and prominent racers. With only Shesonnet and Luna Run likely to track the pace early, Mistral Blue can dictate comfortable fractions through the opening stages without serious pressure. The lack of genuine pace angles means the tempo will be moderate rather than searching, allowing the leaders to stay in contention longer than usual. This tactical setup clearly favours prominent racers and early leaders who can avoid the inevitable traffic problems that will engulf the large pack of hold-up horses in the closing stages.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Mistral Blue Controls Tempo

45% probability

If Mistral Blue gets an uncontested lead and sets sustainable fractions.

The 8-year-old can use her tactical speed to build a winning margin before the hold-up brigade can mount their challenge. Her recent good form at this trip and proven front-running ability make her the logical beneficiary of this race shape.

Mistral BlueLuna RunShesonnetInnisfree Pearl

Hold-Up Horse Traffic Jam

30% probability

If the large pack of hold-up horses get bunched up and struggle for racing room.

The congestion will prevent several fancied runners from getting clear runs, allowing a horse with a good position and strong finishing kick to capitalise. Those that get the clearest passage will have a significant advantage.

Hello CelloInnisfree PearlJlowFlying Pimpernel

Prominent Pair Battle

15% probability

If Shesonnet or Luna Run press Mistral Blue early and create a genuine pace duel.

The increased tempo will set up the race for a strong closer to pick up the pieces in the final furlong. This scenario opens the door for the best of the hold-up horses who can avoid trouble.

Jessie Jump JetAbbey LawCrystal BoxFlying Pimpernel

Pace Collapses Completely

10% probability

If even Mistral Blue goes too slowly and creates a sprint finish from the last flight.

The race becomes a pure test of finishing speed rather than stamina, suiting horses with natural pace regardless of their usual tactics. The draw and positioning becomes crucial in a bunch finish.

Hello CelloJlowFlying PimpernelInnisfree Pearl

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Mistral Blue could get too easy a lead early and prove hard to peg back if allowed to dictate the pace uncontested

WATCH

The large group of hold-up horses may cause significant traffic problems from the last flight, watch for those getting clear runs

NOTE

Hello Cello's headgear return and Harry Fry's horses running well recently makes her dangerous if getting the right trip

WATCH

Jlow's recent good form and bottom weight could be significant if the pace sets up right for hold-up horses

NOTE

Luna Run's long absence is a concern but her low weight and prominent style could suit if needing the run

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 4 May 2026.

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