Archive›Warwick · 9 May 2026

Warwick

9 May 2026 · 6 races

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5:35 — SVE Services Ltd Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase

3m · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Lead contested: Carpe Diem v School For ScandalFREEHISTORIC

How it ran

School For Scandal led, as the map showed.

Redbridge Rambler won at 7.00 — raced prominently, as the map had it. One of the race scenarios named it.

3 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 2

Carpe DiemSchool For Scandal

Prominent · 2

Redbridge RamblerBlack Occ

Midfield · 2

BahtiyarStonegate

Hold Up · 2

Chief Black RobeSweet Nightingale

Carpe Diem and School For Scandal will contest the early pace over this testing three-mile trip at Warwick. Both confirmed front-runners should ensure a solid gallop from the start, with Carpe Diem likely to be more aggressive given his recent prominent tactics. The honest pace will stretch the field over the latter stages of this stamina test. This race shape clearly favours hold-up horses who can stay the extended trip and finish strongly when the pace-setters tire.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Brigade Dominates

60% probability

If the pace-setters go too hard early and fade from three out

The strong gallop will set up perfectly for the patient hold-up horses who can use their stamina reserves in the closing stages. Sweet Nightingale and Chief Black Robe are ideally positioned to capitalize on this scenario given their proven staying ability.

Sweet NightingaleChief Black RobeBahtiyarStonegate

Front Runner Survives

25% probability

If Carpe Diem or School For Scandal can dictate at a controlled pace

One of the pace-setters could steal a march by moderating the gallop and having enough left for a telling kick. School For Scandal's recent course form and lighter weight make him the more likely beneficiary of this tactical scenario.

School For ScandalCarpe DiemRedbridge RamblerBlack Occ

Prominent Tracker Strikes

10% probability

If the prominent runners can track the leaders without over-racing

Redbridge Rambler could benefit from sitting just off the pace-setters and timing his challenge perfectly. His recent good form behind subsequent winners puts him in prime position if he can avoid getting caught up in the early pace battle.

Redbridge RamblerBlack OccSweet NightingaleBahtiyar

Complete Pace Collapse

5% probability

If both pace-setters falter dramatically before the final circuit

A very strong early gallop could see all the front-runners capitulate, leaving the race to the most patient hold-up horses. This extreme scenario would suit the deepest closers but requires a particularly demanding pace that may not materialize.

BahtiyarChief Black RobeSweet NightingaleStonegate

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Carpe Diem and School For Scandal could go too fast early and both collapse, creating chaos in the betting markets

WATCH

Black Occ's jumping reliability after recent pull-ups could affect the pace dynamic if he interferes with the prominent pack

NOTE

Sweet Nightingale's position turning for home will indicate whether the pace has been strong enough to set up her finishing kick

WATCH

Bahtiyar's ability to get a clear run from his hold-up position given the small field size and potential bunching

NOTE

School For Scandal's stamina reserves in the final half-mile will show whether his recent layoff has left him short of peak fitness

6:07 — Mike Mohan's 60th Birthday 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS4 · 8 runners

Taranis Dubh likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Kap De Cerisy led; the map had Taranis Dubh in front.

Sky Grove won at 13.00 — raced prominently, where the map had it was held up. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 8 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Taranis Dubh

Prominent · 2

Fine FellowSo Proud

Midfield · 3

Wings Of AyrtonKap De CerisyPeter's Last Deal

Hold Up · 2

Sky GroveDunstall Star

Taranis Dubh is the only confirmed front runner in this field and should be allowed an uncontested lead, with prominent runners So Proud and Fine Fellow likely tracking but not pressuring early. The pace will be steady rather than searching, with hold-up horses Sky Grove, Dunstall Star and Peter's Last Deal relying on late runs from off the tempo. This should develop into a tactical affair where the early leaders can dictate terms without pressure. This race shape clearly favours front runners and prominent racers who can control the tempo and kick when it matters.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Uncontested Lead Pays

45% probability

If Taranis Dubh gets an easy lead and the pace stays moderate throughout

The front runner can dictate terms without pressure and has enough in reserve to repel late challenges. Prominent racers tracking the pace also benefit from the controlled tempo and can strike at the right moment.

Taranis DubhSo ProudFine FellowKap De Cerisy

Late Surge Successful

30% probability

If the pace becomes too slow and bunches the field for a sprint finish

Hold-up horses get the perfect setup to unleash their finishing kicks when the race comes to them. The early leaders may have gone too slow to resist the late charge.

Sky GroveDunstall StarPeter's Last DealWings Of Ayrton

Prominent Tracker Strikes

15% probability

If Taranis Dubh sets steady fractions but weakens in the final furlong

The horses tracking just behind can time their move perfectly to sweep past a tiring leader. So Proud's bumper win suggests he has the class to capitalize on this scenario.

So ProudFine FellowTaranis DubhKap De Cerisy

Newcomer Surprise

10% probability

If one of the lightly-raced point-to-point graduates shows significant improvement over hurdles

Wings Of Ayrton or Kap De Cerisy could have been working exceptionally well at home and prove much better than their limited public form suggests. The winner emerges from an unexpected source.

Wings Of AyrtonKap De CerisyTaranis DubhSky Grove

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Taranis Dubh could get such an easy lead that he's impossible to peg back if jumping fluently on debut over hurdles

WATCH

Wings Of Ayrton and Kap De Cerisy are complete unknowns making debuts after big money purchases and long layoffs

WATCH

So Proud showed class winning his bumper but folded tamely on hurdling debut and needs to prove that was just a learning experience

NOTE

Fine Fellow returns from long break with claiming rider but trainer Alastair Ralph's 2-5 record suggests selective placement

NOTE

The pace could collapse completely with only Taranis Dubh showing early speed, setting up a messy sprint finish

6:37 — Subscribe To Head In Front Betting Handicap Hurdle

3m1f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Danger Nap likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Silver Gale led; the map had Danger Nap in front.

Mexican Stan won at 5.00 — was held up, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 6 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Danger Nap

Prominent · 2

Kingston KidAnnies Gold

Midfield · 3

Broadway HoneyMexican StanSilver Gale

Hold Up · 2

Blue In The WestKantagua Du Large

With no confirmed front runners and most runners holding up or prominent, this sets up as a modest early gallop with the prominent runners Danger Nap and Kingston Kid likely to track any early leader. The lack of natural pace-setters means the tempo will build gradually, creating a compressed field turning for home. This race shape strongly favours hold-up horses who can deliver late kicks, as they'll get the slow-run race they need to unleash their finishing speed over this stamina-testing 3m1f trip.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If the early pace is pedestrian as expected with no genuine pace-setters

The compressed field and gradual tempo allows the hold-up horses to position perfectly and unleash their finishing kicks in the final half-mile. Blue In The West, Silver Gale, and Mexican Stan all benefit from the tactical setup their running styles demand.

Blue In The WestSilver GaleMexican StanKantagua Du Large

Prominent Runners Control

25% probability

If Danger Nap and Kingston Kid establish a stronger early rhythm than expected

The prominent pair create enough tempo to stretch the field slightly, preventing the hold-up horses from getting their ideal slow-run scenario. This plays into the hands of horses positioned closer to the pace who can sustain their efforts.

Danger NapKingston KidBroadway HoneySilver Gale

Late Collapse Scenario

12% probability

If the early leaders go too fast trying to make their own luck

The over-aggressive early pace catches up with the pace-setters in the final furlong, allowing the patient hold-up horses to sweep past tired leaders. Mexican Stan and Blue In The West benefit most from this energy-sapping tactical battle.

Mexican StanBlue In The WestSilver GaleKantagua Du Large

Tactical Mess Benefits Outsider

8% probability

If the lack of pace leads to a stop-start affair with multiple horses trying to make running

The scrappy, muddling pace doesn't suit any running style perfectly, creating opportunities for horses with tactical speed to strike when others are still organizing. Broadway Honey could capitalize on the chaos with her versatility.

Broadway HoneySilver GaleMexican StanDanger Nap

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Blue In The West could be very hard to beat given recent winning form and this tactical setup perfectly suits his hold-up style

WATCH

Watch for Danger Nap to be more prominent than usual early on which could create more pace than expected for the hold-up horses

NOTE

Silver Gale's positioning will be key as she needs the race to develop into a staying test to show her recent improvement

WATCH

If Kingston Kid or any outsider tries to make running early it could completely change the complexion and favour different profiles

NOTE

Mexican Stan stepping up significantly in trip for the first time which could unlock improvement but remains unproven at this level

7:07 — Lewis Badges 1832 Handicap Hurdle

2m5f · Good · HCAP · 8 runners

Gwash likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Il Va De Soi led; the map had Gwash in front.

Il Va De Soi won at 10.00 — led, where the map had it raced midfield.

1 of 7 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Gwash

Prominent · 2

Three PikesKom Tu Voudras

Midfield · 3

Il Va De SoiUrban IsleCamarrate

Hold Up · 2

Mammies BoyImpecunious

Gwash is the only confirmed front runner and will dictate terms from the start, likely to get an uncontested lead in this small field. Three Pikes, Il Va De Soi, Kom Tu Voudras and Urban Isle all show prominent tendencies but may settle closer than usual given the lack of pace pressure. The hold-up horses Impecunious, Camarrate and Mammies Boy will track the moderate gallop before making their moves turning for home. This sustainable pace scenario heavily favours the hold-up merchants who can unleash finishing kicks against tired front-runners.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Hold-Up Horses Dominate

55% probability

If Gwash sets a pedestrian gallop and the prominent horses fail to apply pressure

The lack of pace allows hold-up horses to conserve energy and produce superior finishing bursts. Camarrate, Impecunious and Mammies Boy can all unleash devastating late kicks against a strung-out field.

CamarrateImpecuniousMammies BoyThree Pikes

Prominent Prevails Early

25% probability

If Three Pikes or Kom Tu Voudras press Gwash and create honest gallop

The increased tempo prevents hold-up horses from closing effectively while suiting those who can travel strongly in behind the leaders. Three Pikes benefits most from his recent Stratford win and upward trajectory.

Three PikesKom Tu VoudrasGwashCamarrate

Gwash Wire-to-Wire

12% probability

If Gwash gets soft fractions and kicks clear turning for home

His 163-day break could have freshened him up and the lack of early pace pressure allows him to dictate throughout. The field struggles to reel in his sustained effort from the front.

GwashThree PikesCamarrateMammies Boy

Impecunious Returns Fresh

8% probability

If the 293-day layoff has rejuvenated Impecunious under new trainer Chanin

His two wins for Chris Down last year showed genuine ability and the extended break could have him primed for a big effort. Fresh legs prove decisive in the closing stages.

ImpecuniousCamarrateThree PikesMammies Boy

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Impecunious market moves will reveal if 293-day absence has been beneficial under new trainer Chanin

WATCH

Three Pikes early position as he may need to be more aggressive than usual given the lack of natural pace

NOTE

Gwash's jumping rhythm early on after his 163-day seasonal break

WATCH

Camarrate's finishing kick timing as he attempts to follow up his Newcastle breakthrough

NOTE

Urban Isle's response to first-time cheekpieces in the closing stages

7:37 — Jockey Club 0-110 Rated Series Final Open Hunters' Chase (A Grassroots Hunters' Chase Series Final)

3m · Good · CLS4 · 4 runners

Walkin Out likeliest to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Malinas Glory and Best Mate Dave led; the map had Walkin Out in front.

Malinas Glory won at 2.62 — led, where the map had it raced midfield. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Walkin Out

Prominent · 1

Good Source

Midfield · 1

Malinas Glory

Hold Up · 1

Best Mate Dave

Walkin Out will dictate terms from the front in this small field, with Good Source and Malinas Glory likely to race prominently behind the leader. With three prominent runners and only Best Mate Dave held up, there's no serious pace pressure early. The tempo will be measured but honest over 3 miles, with the real racing beginning after the second-last fence. This sustainable pace and lack of early burn-up clearly favours prominent racers who can position handy and have something left for the finish.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Walkin Out Controls

45% probability

If Walkin Out gets an uncontested lead and dictates a rhythm that suits

The leader can measure out fractions perfectly and kick clear turning in, while prominent runners get first run at the leader. Miss Anna Johnston's mount has the class edge and can exploit tactical control.

Walkin OutGood SourceMalinas GloryBest Mate Dave

Prominent Battle

30% probability

If Good Source and Malinas Glory press Walkin Out earlier than expected

The three prominent runners engage in sustained battle from 4 out, creating a true staying test. Good Source's superior RPR of 99 and recent Fakenham win gives him the edge in a grinding finish.

Good SourceMalinas GloryWalkin OutBest Mate Dave

Hold-Up Charge

15% probability

If the pace collapses completely and Best Mate Dave gets the perfect setup

The prominent trio go too slow early, leaving Best Mate Dave with a devastating late kick. Mr Philipson-Stow times his challenge to perfection as the leaders tire.

Best Mate DaveGood SourceWalkin OutMalinas Glory

Shock Malinas Glory

10% probability

If Malinas Glory's point form translates directly and others disappoint

The Hannah Lewis-trained runner builds on recent point wins with Heidi Palin aboard. His prominent style catches others napping while maintaining strongest gallop to the line.

Malinas GloryBest Mate DaveGood SourceWalkin Out

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Walkin Out's jumping under pressure - any mistake when challenged could end chances given small margin for error

WATCH

Good Source's fitness after 403-day absence - any signs of rustiness early could compromise prominent position

NOTE

Best Mate Dave's early positioning - if he tracks closer than usual it signals pace concerns

WATCH

Malinas Glory's adaptation from points to rules - different pace and jumping demands under hunter chase conditions

8:07 — Claverdon FC Have Done The Double Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

2m · Good · CLS5 · 6 runners

Roll A Dollar to leadHISTORIC

How it ran

Legend D'Airy led; the map had Roll A Dollar in front.

Nate Of Spades won at 3.50. One of the race scenarios named it.

1 of 4 runners raced in the group the map gave them

Race shape

Lead · 1

Roll A Dollar

Prominent · 2

Midnight EscapeBarascaria Ten

Midfield · 2

Nate Of SpadesDennis's Honor

Hold Up · 1

Legend D'Airy

Roll A Dollar will lead from the start and likely dictate terms throughout this small field, with Midnight Escape and Barascaria Ten likely to track him in prominent positions. Legend D'Airy's hold-up style means he'll need the pace to develop strongly to set up his finishing kick from the rear. With only one confirmed leader and limited early pace pressure, Roll A Dollar can control the tempo and make this a tactical affair. This controlled pace scenario strongly favours front-runners and prominent racers who can avoid a stamina test, while hold-up horses like Legend D'Airy will struggle without genuine pace to close into.

Runner profiles

Race scenarios

Controlled Front Running

45% probability

If Roll A Dollar leads unchallenged and dictates a steady tempo throughout.

Roll A Dollar can kick clear in the straight while prominent racers like Midnight Escape benefit from the lack of early pace pressure. Legend D'Airy faces a difficult task trying to close from the back in a slowly-run race.

Roll A DollarMidnight EscapeDennis's HonorNate Of Spades

Early Pace Collapse

30% probability

If Roll A Dollar falters or gets headed early, leaving no clear leader.

The race becomes messy with no natural pace-setter, creating stop-start fractions that suit versatile types. This scenario opens the door for the newcomers Dennis's Honor and Nate Of Spades to capitalize on the chaos.

Dennis's HonorNate Of SpadesMidnight EscapeLegend D'Airy

Late Surge Prevails

20% probability

If Legend D'Airy gets the strong pace he needs and the leaders come back to him.

A genuinely-run race allows Legend D'Airy to utilize his superior class (OR 111) and proven ability to close strongly. Ben Pauling's runner has the highest RPR (117) and can exploit tired leaders.

Legend D'AiryDennis's HonorRoll A DollarMidnight Escape

Surprise Package

5% probability

If one of the lightly-raced newcomers shows significant improvement from their breeding.

Either Dennis's Honor or Nate Of Spades capitalizes on their superior pedigrees and potential improvement. Their unknown quantities make them dangerous if showing up with fitness and ability.

Nate Of SpadesDennis's HonorLegend D'AiryMidnight Escape

Race position map

LeadProminentMidfieldHold up

Watch points

KEY

Roll A Dollar's early pace-setting - if he goes too slow it kills Legend D'Airy's chances, too fast and he won't last home himself.

WATCH

Legend D'Airy's position turning for home - needs to be within striking distance to utilize his superior class rating.

NOTE

Dennis's Honor and Nate Of Spades in the market - any confident support suggests hidden ability from their connections.

WATCH

Midnight Escape's fitness after 156-day layoff - may need this run despite showing promise last time out.

NOTE

The pace scenario developing after the first half-mile - whether Roll A Dollar gets company or leads alone will shape the entire race.

About this analysis

Every race on PaceMap is read from the in-running comments of each runner’s recent form — how a horse actually ran, not only where it finished. Those comments decide the groups above, and the same comments are read back after the race to score what was published. The record is public, including the months it was worse.

Read the method behind this analysis →

This meeting ran on 9 May 2026.

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